# C7 class solar flare incoming



## Centraltn (Feb 21, 2011)

INCOMING: Magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1236 erupted during the early hours of June 21st, producing a C7-class solar flare and a full-halo CME. The expanding cloud is heading almost directly toward Earth:
UPDATE: According to analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab, the CME left the sun traveling 800 km/s and it will reach Earth on June 23rd at 23:22 UT (plus or minus 7 hours). A very cool 3D heliospheric model shows the cloud sweeping past our planet. The impact is expected to trigger a G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm. 

High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 23rd and 24. The season favors southern hemisphere observers, where solstice skies are winter-dark. Aurora alerts:

........... UT time:

Time can be measured in a number of ways. For instance, we can measure the passage of time via the orbital motion of Earth and other planets in the solar system (Dynamical Time). Or we can measure time based on the rotation of Earth on its axis with respect to the stars (Universal Time). Finally, we can measure time through the oscillations of atoms (International Atomic Time).

Universal Time or UT is the precise measure of time used as the basis for all civil time-keeping. Although their exact definitions differ, most readers can assume that Universal Time is equivalent to Greenwich Mean Time or GMT. Universal Time is actually based on the mean sidereal time as measured in Greenwich, England. It's also approximately equal to mean solar time from Greenwich.

Like most other astronomical calculations, eclipse predictions are usually presented in terms of Universal Time. In order to convert eclipse predictions from UT to local time, you need to know what time zone you are in. For North Americans, the conversion from UT to local time is as follows:

Atlantic Standard Time (AST) = UT - 4 hours
Eastern Standard Time (EST) = UT - 5 hours
Central Standard Time (CST) = UT - 6 hours
Mountain Standard Time (MST) = UT - 7 hours
Pacific Standard Time (PST) = UT - 8 hours


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## lhalfcent (Mar 11, 2010)

I thought we were going into an unexpected solar minimum???
:sssh:


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## *Andi (Nov 8, 2009)

lhalfcent, you and I was thinking along the same line.


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## catsraven (Jan 25, 2010)

Well a class C7 is not to bad. Lol nope just when you think you have figured out Mother Nature she laughs at you flips you off and runs away laughing maniacally.:lolsmash:


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## *Andi (Nov 8, 2009)

catsraven said:


> Well a class C7 is not to bad. Lol nope just when you think you have figured out Mother Nature she laughs at you flips you off and runs away laughing maniacally.:lolsmash:


Oh ... So true!!! lol


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## Centraltn (Feb 21, 2011)

Actually, NASA was in Congress, I think it was the end of last year explaining to them that we were moving into a VERY, possibly UNPRECEDENTED, high solar activity time in 2012 - 2014/15 and practically begged them to prepare our electrical grid. They showed congress how easily and inexpensively they could protect our grid and showed them NASA's estimate on how long the grid could be out and how extensive it would be if the grid wereNOT protected and how - without power in any factories etc, they wouldnt be able to get the grid up and running overnight by any means. That it could take as long as 3-10 yrs. You think the guys we hired to keep us safe and sound have done anything? I havent heard a WORD about it and I think I'd have found SOMETHING about it by now!


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## geoffreys7 (Jan 11, 2011)

Yesterday my cable TV & Internet went down in Long Island, NY, and today my companys home office phones are down in Chicago. I wonder it it's just a coincidence or if solar flares caused it?


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## Nadja (Jan 12, 2011)

Actually , I heard that they did do something. They spend 10 billion dollars to fix dc area grid. The problem with the grid is its age and the fact that the transformers used every 1/4 of a mile or so to step up the power would fail. Having said that, then they said that this country no longer makes transformers, but they of course come from China. You are one country and you pull a number and stand in line.


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## power (May 7, 2011)

Lots of rumors, old wives tales, and just plain guessing going on about grid failure. Most comes from people very unfamiliar with how the grid works, how a power plant works, or even about transformers.


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## Jason (Jul 25, 2009)

Nadja-not entirely true. I used to work in a transformer plant in Canonsburg PA that as far as I know is still there and there's another one in Greensburg, PA. The Canonsburg company also has a plant somewhere in North Carolina. Those are 2 that I know of in my little corner of the world. All hope is not yet lost on that end.


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## SageAdvicefarmgirl (Jun 23, 2011)

Anyone read the book One Second After?


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## Frugal_Farmers (Dec 13, 2010)

I just hope this doen't effect the metal plate the VA put in my head.

It seems that everytime I rev up that there microwave oven, I pee my pants and forget who I am for an hour or two.


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## weedygarden (Apr 27, 2011)

*Will someone explain how this could affect us?*

Not meaning to sound too ignorant, but what is the potential impact of this? Would this mean the distruction of our electrical infrastructure and anything that uses electrical (EMP?)?

I go for walks with a friend. We walk in a variety of places. We have noticed that the ground wire on most poles has been cut, and a section of it removed from about where someone could reach, to almost the ground. I have wondered if this was relative to the stealing of metal to sell (it seems if can be stolen, it will be, in vacant buildings, and sometimes occupied buildings) or if this was done on purpose by the powers that be?

Have others noticed that the ground wire on poles is missing or damaged?


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

Weedy, I would be on the watch for radio disruptions primarily - cell-phone, AM / FM stations, CB-Radio, etc. As far as power disruption goes, we _should_ be alright


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## AgentSmith (Jan 19, 2010)

For updated info on this check out SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids



> CME FORECAST, REVISED: A CME propelled toward Earth by the "solstice solar flare" of June 21st may be moving slower than originally thought. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab have downgraded the cloud's probable speed from 800 km/s to 650 km/s. Impact is now expected on June 24th at 0700 UT plus or minus 7 hours. In this animated forecast model, the yellow dot is Earth:


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

SageAdvicefarmgirl said:


> Anyone read the book *One Second After*?


Yes, great book!


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## Clarice (Aug 19, 2010)

Not sure if it is relavent but the cell phone service has been disrupted here in the past hour and the power flashed off and on here in the courthouse three or four times.


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## Centraltn (Feb 21, 2011)

I've had a little weird stuff happenniing on direct sat tv. ZDunno if its them or solar


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

A couple of power-blips here as well, but, the winds blowing are just short of tornado-level so that might have something to do with it. The storm will make for a very fun ride on my bike from work to home .. :gaah:


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

Nadja said:


> Actually , I heard that they did do something. They spend 10 billion dollars to fix dc area grid. The problem with the grid is its age and the fact that the transformers used every 1/4 of a mile or so to step up the power would fail. Having said that, then they said that this country no longer makes transformers, but they of course come from China. You are one country and you pull a number and stand in line.


Sorry ya heard wrong. Most transformers we use in this country are still built here. Shoot there are 3 factories in MS alone. Most utilities will not use anything but.

Sounds like DC's system is pretty old for sure. Capacitor banks are use to keep voltage high btw.

Jimmy


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## Bigdog57 (Oct 9, 2008)

Jimmy24 said:


> Sorry ya heard wrong. Most transformers we use in this country are still built here. Shoot there are 3 factories in MS alone. Most utilities will not use anything but.
> 
> Sounds like DC's system is pretty old for sure. Capacitor banks are use to keep voltage high btw.
> 
> Jimmy


Glad to know that - I had heard through the 'online grapevine' about the supposed lack of transformer construction here too. We had a substation burn a coule weeks ago, and 2000 folks locally were without power for three hours til they rerouted. News said they had to truck a new transformer in from another town. With my preps and the fact it was evening anyways, I barely noticed, except my 'puter wouldn't run - so I went to bed......


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## power (May 7, 2011)

Bigdog57 said:


> Glad to know that - I had heard through the 'online grapevine' about the supposed lack of transformer construction here too. We had a substation burn a coule weeks ago, and 2000 folks locally were without power for three hours til they rerouted. News said they had to truck a new transformer in from another town. With my preps and the fact it was evening anyways, I barely noticed, except my 'puter wouldn't run - so I went to bed......


Transformers are one of the least likely piece of equipment to go bad. Many places do not keep very many spare transformers. The larger they are the more dependable they are. Lots of other equipment have a much higher fail rate. Storage space is taken up by these.


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

Bigdog57 said:


> Glad to know that - I had heard through the 'online grapevine' about the supposed lack of transformer construction here too. We had a substation burn a coule weeks ago, and 2000 folks locally were without power for three hours til they rerouted. News said they had to truck a new transformer in from another town. With my preps and the fact it was evening anyways, I barely noticed, except my 'puter wouldn't run - so I went to bed......


So you know where I come from, my career was with an electric utility for nearly 30 yrs. The last 6, managing my own town/area. I have changed literally hundreds if not thousands of transformers. They included mostly pole mounted and pad mount (underground). These are the transformers that supply power to your home/business thru our wire to the meter base.

Understand that transformers that are in substations are another animal, same but not the same. They drop transmission voltage coming in, to distribution voltage going out. Thru a series of switches, breakers and regulators it leaves the sub and goes out to the community. Most of ours were 110kv coming in and 12kv going out. Which the pole mounted transformer at your home takes and drops to secondary voltage of 120/240.

A transformer for a substation is a one year lead time to build. It is a very expensive piece of equipment, about $7 million last time I heard. They don't keep them on the shelf....Versus pole mounted types may cost new $2k or rebuilt $500 that are kept on the shelf. Our company had 5 spare sub transformers that won't work in all of the subs. We have over 70 substations....

I understand there is some being built south of the border, but I know of no one using them. Each utility has their own spec for transformers and so therefore they are still somewhat a specialized piece of equipment.

Hope that helps some.

Jimmy


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## Nadja (Jan 12, 2011)

Well, its good to know that we do still have transformer plants here, but don't tell O'Bumble or he will fire the ceo's and put his campaign contributers in charge. LOL


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## Centraltn (Feb 21, 2011)

What good will those plants be if there is no power to build these transformers.. nevermind the rest of the system. If the sytem got fried by a super large CME (coronal mass ejection) as NASA warned of, we could be without power for a very long time. Are those plants on on term generators jimmy? Are those generators protected from EMPs or solar flares? Please tell me our electrical grid- nationwide is protected.


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