# What will the Horde look like?



## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Repost from WRSA:

http://survivalblog.com/letter_re_a_veteran_policemans/

Discuss


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## Justaguy987 (Mar 2, 2013)

The article

A lot has been written warning us of what will happen when the City Dwellers find their homes are untenable and vacate [en masse as The Golden Horde] for "the country", but I haven't seen anything on what the make-up of these hordes will be. The generic term "city dwellers" encompasses a lot of territory. Who will they be,what kind of shape will they be in, how will they be armed&#8230;all of these need to be examined.

One category needs to be examined, I feel, more closely than others. Since I have seen posts on your site lately dealing with the nitty-gritty, unpleasant aspects of prepping, I think this is a needed look into what's out there. I've been a cop over 20 years, my last uniform assignment before moving to Investigator being a two year stretch of Anti-Crime patrols in the Section 8 Housing projects of my city. This put me into contact with some of the "Worst of the Worst" that will be fleeing the cities in time of trouble. Gang-bangers, common street thugs, dope dealers and users, all have a place in the hierarchy of the streets. And they will certainly be part of what preppers will be facing in times of troubles. Here's some of what I have learned:

The bottom rung is occupied by the drug addicts and users. They exist, not live as we understand the word. They have no assets, no goals, no drive. But they do have an almost animal instinct to continue living. They will be armed with anything they can steal or lay hands on. Most will have a knife of razor box cutter, and some sort of cheap pistol, or they will not live to get out of the city. Since they have no resources or assets, they will be on the edge of starvation and desperation almost within a day of an event. With no fixed residence or place to defend, they will be hitting the road and coming towards us. They will become violent without any provocation and there will be no negotiating or bargaining with them. They don't want to hear your story or excuses. All they want is what you have. And have no doubts: They will do anything to get what they want. And this does include catering to their most base instincts of rape, murder and mutilation. Letting someone like this even close to you and what you have is flirting with death.

The next and most numerous will be the drones who make up the majority of the project dwellers. They live on Government Entitlement checks, have no assets and, on any given day will have no more than 3 or 4 days supply of food in their apartments,most of this being refrigerated. There will be a high percentage of females without male companions,will have a large number of children and will be absolutely vicious and violently inclined. Their day to day existence within the defined society they live in demands they be aggressive and violent.They fight more, and are arrested more,than the males they live around. The males will have more serious charges, but the females will have more of them. They too cannot be trusted. If they are drug users, they will, and have, traded their children for drugs, and, based on this proven behavior, will most certainly abandon them or trade them if the situation calls for it. Seeing that you are supplied, they will leave their children in your yard and walk away, counting on your liberal Good Samaritan instinct that has always bailed them out in the past to care for their offspring and justify that to themselves as "doing what they have to do". Knowing that they will do something as low as this,be assured they will do much worse. They habitually carry razor knives and small pistols such as .25 ACPs and .380 ACPs. They are very dangerous and unstable folks to be around. These females may or may not be accompanied by men. The males may be linked biologically to one or more of the children but will abandon them as easily as the females. These males come from the lower order of males (see next classification) and will be armed as described next.

The next order of classification will be unattached or drone males. These males tend to be convicted of felonies before they are 21 and who hang around the other, more productive males who deal drugs and have money. They will also be the so-called "foot soldiers" of the drug and street gangs. They exhibit sociopathic behavior and have no allegiance to anyone except maybe a family member, usually referred to as a "cousin" or a gang. They live off the female drones by paying cash rent, gained by low level drug dealing and petty crimes, to a female who has Section 8 housing, for a room that they sleep in and usually have no other attachment such as taking meals there.They live off fast food,carry guns of dubious origin and consume massive amounts of drugs and alcohol, mostly beer and cheap brandy and marijuana. They will not have any assets to defend, may accompany the female who rents them a room and will hang around the cities and projects only as long as their cohorts do. They will leave in junky vehicles,steal what they need along the way and kill,rob,rape and pillage their way across the countryside. Their weapons tend to be of the pistol variety although they may have access to shortened, easily concealable shotguns or rifles. Their lifestyle doesn't give them a secure place to hide or keep long guns,but they will steal and use them if given a chance. They will also have some type of blade weapon and be proficient with the use of them. They are very dangerous to anyone who comes into contact with them. The last and highest order will be the moneyed drug dealer.He will have a flashy vehicle such as an Escalade or Lexus variety. He will have quality firearms, preferring Glock handguns and SKS or AK type rifles and will have ammunition for them in quanity.He will be arrogant and a definite killer. He will have assets to defend and may not leave his comfort zone until forced by authorities or circumstances. He will have "foot soldiers" and a woman traveling with him, but probably not children. He will travel well and be charming when trying to gain confidence or talk himself out of a jam. He will also be vicious and hateful, full of spite at those he sees as having taken away his lifestyle and means of making a living. He most probably will not have a lot in the way of supplies such as food and medical equipment, tending to live in the moment and not for the future. He will be one of the opportunistic "I'll just take what I need" types. He will be very cunning, having risen to the top of the street hierarchy,and all the more dangerous because of this.

When dealing with all of the above types, caution is the word. Never let them get even a glimpse of what you have. Never let them get past your outer barrier, be that a fence, abatis or boundary line. Its best to keep verbal contact to the barest minimum. A terse: "We have nothing, go away or we will shoot" is a good example. I have seen them be charming and seemingly harmless while edging into a fence gate or otherwise getting closer until they are in range to strike. You must always remember the 20 foot rule (Never let anyone get closer than 20 feet from you at any time). It is important to remember also that the longer they have been roaming and stealing,the better armed they may be, having stolen others firearms and equipment. Seeing an obvious street thug carrying an expensive scoped rifle or an engraved shotgun should be a tip off as to what they are. These type people would never spend money on a gun that may be taken by the law at anytime in their day to day existence. They do worship Glocks and the glamour they see in them. A dealer told me once, when confessing to an assault "I just outs with my Glock .40 and let it holla" as if he had done something great.

I know that most people who read your blogs are aware enough to keep strangers away from their refuge.But if someone has never lived around these types of people,they may not be aware of just how dangerous they really are. As I mentioned,they can be charming,cunning and decietful.They have lived their entire lives off the goodwill of others and The Government and are past masters at pretending to be needy,harmless and "safe". Guile is engrained in them. I leave you with one short story. In the days after Hurricane Katrina, we were reinforced with officers from other agencies, many states away, who had volunteered to help. (I was not in New Orleans, but on the edge of the hurricane strike) I was partnered with a state SWAT officer from up North. This man was experienced and a "steady hand". As we walked through some of the power blacked-out , sweltering-in-the-heat projects, he turned to me and said: "This is worse than Mogadishu". He was scared and had good reason to be. And this was after only three days of no electricity and relief was just starting to arrive. Think about those same areas after a real failure of services and food deliveries. Good Luck


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## Justaguy987 (Mar 2, 2013)

This seems to focus on the bad, the drug users and dealers, the ones living off the gov and that type of people. Yes, they will come, but I think it is important to realize if everyone has to leave the big cities, there will be good people coming as well. I do not have much to say about this, but am vary interested in hearing what others have to say. As BlueZ said: Discuss.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

I never knew it was like this on the Upper East Side!


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## Jason (Jul 25, 2009)

This is actually something that really worries me. We live on roughly 250 acres of rolling farmland surrounded by woods and other farms about a half hour's drive south of downtown Pittsburgh. We're a bit off the beaten path but not by much. One of our neighboring farms is a major regional produce farm where suburbanites come all summer in droves to pick their own produce, starting with strawberries in the early summer and ending pretty much right now with pumpkins. They have thousands of "city folk" with shiny new SUV's there on a busy weekend. All of these people know that there is food literally lying in the fields, and these fields come within 100 yards or so of my house.

Most of our friends know we can and garden. We don't talk about prepping with them but it's known we put back some food in the manner of old time folks. Just last night one of my wife's friends joked that she was coming here if the world ends. I smiled, but ran cold inside.

Both of these things make the "golden horde" one of my biggest fears if a major event does ever happen. When MMM and GypsySue were here this summer I remember mentioning this to MMM-home security scares me more than almost anything else if there's no rule of law and we can still shelter in place.

Lots of people know bout the farm next door and my house is visible from their apple orchards. We are only so strong in a defensive capability.

Anybody else in a similar situation?


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Those in the southern border states (plus Florida) will also have to contend with the Hispanic horde which will move as a flood north into our country. Like the horde mentioned above they will only be coming to rape, kill, and steal. Perimeter alarms and defenses will be essential to protect yourself and family but being over-run is still a likelihood. Many (most) 'good' people will succumb to these threats, whether they are prepared or not.


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## IlliniWarrior (Nov 30, 2010)

Don't really believe in the whole Golden Horde premise .... something I disagree with Rawles about ....

but I'll add my 2 cents that most people don't realize or gave thought to ....

the premise is that you're "safe" being so many miles away from a metro area .... that's if the gooberment and FEMA doesn't get involved .... their plans include the evac of the cities thru all manners of transportation and depositing people into areas considered safe .... housing people into large building seized for that purpose .... sports stadiums, county fair grounds, convention centers, malls ect ect .... plans also include just dumping off at communities and expecting civic organizations and churches to refugee tend them .... 5,000 population community - you get 50 people or maybe 150 .... so you have small and very large groups dispersed in the hitherlands around the metro areas - with FEMA in charge of providing supplies and support .... so what happens when the SHTF hits and FEMA disappears? .... you could have thousands of hungry and desperate roaming the countryside around your BOL .... or inner city thugs that take rather than receive ....

give any thought of the people that do decide to self evac and hit the interstate leading out of the city .... where does that interstate lead? ... to another city that is likely under evac also .... what happens when the two refugee streams collide or the gooberment establishes a roadblock .... you have a mass of refugees basically mid-point between cities ... this mass starts spreading outwards on the smaller state, county and rural roads adjacent to the interstate .... again thousands of people roaming the countryside .....


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## HardCider (Dec 13, 2013)

I don't worry about any "golden horde". I live far from any large town. Nearest interstate is an hour and a half by car. I worry about rural folks with outdoor skills. The difference between a good man and a raider is about 10 days without food. Everyone here owns at least one rifle and most know how to use it. I worry about the lone sniper or small hunter groups. That's the one you never see coming. Most people in general think everything could be better but don't have a clue about just how bad it can get when people are desparate. The other thing you saw after Katrina was an imbedded belief that the Gov is coming to the rescue. Most with that mindset may wait too long before they think to spread out to the country and because they have no experience with the boondocks, they actually fear it..or wouldn't last very long


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

hiwall said:


> Those in the southern border states (plus Florida) will also have to contend with the Hispanic horde which will move as a flood north into our country. Like the horde mentioned above they will only be coming to rape, kill, and steal. Perimeter alarms and defenses will be essential to protect yourself and family but being over-run is still a likelihood. Many (most) 'good' people will succumb to these threats, whether they are prepared or not.


Why would Hispanics want to come here if the SHTF? In that situation they would be better off where they are.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

Geek999 said:


> Why would Hispanics want to come here if the SHTF? In that situation they would be better off where they are.


First, they may not be better off there. If the fan turns brown here it may turn dark brown there.

Second, even if they are better off there they may not perceive it that way. They currently perceive, think of things, being better in the U.S., normalcy bias will promote that opinion well past reality.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

How many people know where their food comes from?? sure there are the people that Jason mentioned, these people are somewhat aware of the cycle of life and are probably reasonable, and might even be an asset. the druggies and gang bangers do they know anything about food sources?? I don't know, I do know that due to a poaching problem in our area there is getting to be a pretty responsive "hillbilly hot line" developing. I also think the big locked gate and no trespassing signs are just an invitation to would be criminals. Looking at SHTF from a preppers prospective is a lot different than from an entitlement mind set, they won't look after them selves now, will they walk down a gravel road to find food, I doubt it, but I still have plans for if they do.


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## GaryS (Nov 15, 2011)

When Katrina hit, the government dropped about 200 refugees in our tiny East Texas community located over 300 miles from New Orleans. No money for the city, no supplies, no information, no direction, no nothing, just busloads of people who had been given some cash. Some were taken into private homes, some were put up in churches, and some in city buildings. Most of the refugees wanted everything handed to them and complained about the food and facilities that locals provided free of charge. Petty crimes skyrocketed. Drugs and alcohol were consumed inside the churches, in the stores and on the streets. Locals were scared to shop downtown as the hoodlums had no fear, and the small police force had no idea how to handle the brazen law breaking.

After a couple of weeks, the worst of the worst found ways to leave and join their kind in the bigger cities, so we were left with some of the truly helpless and needy, so the situation improved. However, if something happened to unleash another flood of humanity with similar levels of incivility on that small town, I'd expect the government busses to be greeted with drawn and loaded weapons.


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## lazydaisy67 (Nov 24, 2011)

I am a member of a preparedness group on FB. Don't talk much, just read a lot. 99% of the people are morons who tell everybody everything on a social website and most probably won't be much to contend with. However, some of them talked about how they're going to "bug out" of the cities to "rural, or uninhabited" areas with various types of vehicles and trailers, etc. I did post a question as to where they felt this 'uninhabited' place would be. I said that not counting government land or something like a state park, the rural areas are owned by somebody who may or may not like gobs of people pitching tents on their property. Not really much of a response from them about that. 
I don't think people in cities really realize that just because there isn't a house every 50 feet, that land is up for the taking. I also don't think that people in rural areas understand just how MANY folks in cities will be coming to pitch a tent and commence rudimentary survival skills that they watched Bear Grills do on a show once. This doesn't even touch on the above mentioned 'scary' groups, this is just regular, normal and generally good people. Hundreds of thousands of good, formerly nice, but now starving to death people.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Caribou said:


> First, they may not be better off there. If the fan turns brown here it may turn dark brown there.
> 
> Second, even if they are better off there they may not perceive it that way. They currently perceive think of things being better in the U.S., normalcy bias will promote that opinion well past reality.


Let's see: During SHTF should I be worried about the horde from the city next door, or the horde from Guatemala?

Sorry, but I think I'll worry about the city next door.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

> Why would Hispanics want to come here if the SHTF? In that situation they would be better off where they are.


If there ever was a breakdown in law enforcement in the USA you can safely bet that many from very poor countries would make their way here to take advantage of the situation to steal. They could steal enough in a day to equal more than they make in a year or more. Plus both here and everywhere else there are many people that are just barely held in check by the threat of arrest that would take advantage of a lawless situation to rape and kill at will and would certainly enjoy it.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

hiwall said:


> If there ever was a breakdown in law enforcement in the USA you can safely bet that many from very poor countries would make their way here to take advantage of the situation to steal. They could steal enough in a day to equal more than they make in a year or more. Plus both here and everywhere else there are many people that are just barely held in check by the threat of arrest that would take advantage of a lawless situation to rape and kill at will and would certainly enjoy it.


So in SHTF I should worry about gangbangers from Guatemala more than I should worry about gangbangers in the city next door? I don't think so.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

IlliniWarrior said:


> Don't really believe in the whole Golden Horde premise .... something I disagree with Rawles about ....
> 
> but I'll add my 2 cents that most people don't realize or gave thought to ....
> 
> ...


I expect the federal government to prevent evacuation of the cities as much as possible. Just like how they locked down New Orleans after Katrina. People couldn't get out and aid couldn't get in. It was in the alternative media in the last year how the federal government was buying bulletproof checkpoints. Otherwise, people will leave and try to see if their relatives have food. Highways will be a nightmare. Accidents and people running out of gas will turn highways into parking lots.

I expect the federal government to use stadiums as a place to hold people who are rounded up until they're sorted out. I expect the government to murder anyone they consider a threat. Including Christians, gun owners, Constitutionalists, Pro-Lifers, and Tea Party people. I expect 90% of Americans to die in the year following the collapse.

The government isn't going to disperse people from cities to small towns after the collapse because nobody will have food. Except for the federal government and people they consider to be key personnel. And preppers of various kinds.

I'm not going to be totally safe in small town NE Wisconsin but I'll be a lot safer than living near Milwaukee or Chicago. I think the biggest danger will be from my neighbors. And from people who know I'm prepping and think I owe them something.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

Geek999 said:


> Let's see: During SHTF should I be worried about the horde from the city next door, or the horde from Guatemala?
> 
> Sorry, but I think I'll worry about the city next door.


Hey, you asked the question, I just put forward an opinion.

No argument about the city dwellers, that doesn't make any other group less dangerous. I feel that you are competent to deal with more than one threat at the same time, especially as the answer is likely the same.


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## squerly (Aug 17, 2012)

Tirediron said:


> I also think the big locked gate and no trespassing signs are just an invitation to would be criminals.


Big locked gates (around here anyway) are meant to slow down and isolate the target(s).


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## TimB (Nov 11, 2008)

Personally, I think it will be much like "The Walking Dead" with the only difference being they will still be breathing.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Caribou said:


> Hey, you asked the question, I just put forward an opinion.
> 
> No argument about the city dwellers, that doesn't make any other group less dangerous. I feel that you are competent to deal with more than one threat at the same time, especially as the answer is likely the same.


Well, I just don't buy the idea that if things are really screwed up here that makes coming here more attractive than it is now to anybody. In fact if SHTF here, a farm in South America sounds like a good place to be.


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## ZoomZoom (Dec 18, 2009)

I don't know it people in rural areas will have a lot of issues with the gang-bangers and their ilk.

The way I see it playing out. Note: Like Jason, Pittsburgh is the closest city to me and the 'Burgh would be a real bitch to get out of in a SHTF situation. The city is at the confluence of 3 large rivers. Outside of that, there's steep hills and going through tunnels to get in or out of the city is the norm in almost all directions.

With those topographical and road constraints, people are pretty much going to be on foot. That will limit their range. I wouldn't expect many to actually get past the suburbs. Why would a gang-banger want to come out to the rural areas with nothing going on when he could take some million dollar suburban home? Again, thinking of the W. PA area, there's a ton of hunters in these parts and a lot of them live in suburbia. _Hunting permit sales hover around 1,000,000 for the State each year._ To me, that means the major battles will be happening in suburbia. The gang-bangers will want in and the suburbanites are armed and will defend their places.

Approx. 6 months of the year shelter is a requirement due to cold temps. Again, who's going to head to rural areas where there's very little housing and you can bet, a fire-fight will ensue if you try to take someones.

With very, very little warning time, I'd expect to see choke points and roadblocks established by the rural folk. Farm or construction equipment parked across roads, trees being felled across roads... Between the hills, barbed wire fences, road closures, the # of quality dogs that are on farms and such, I just don't see people traipsing in and instead will be meeting an armed response at the furthest of several perimeter lines.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

I don't buy the whole idea that suddenly there is a horde of gangbangers either. Being a gangbanger gives one a short life expectancy in normal times. It won't get better if SHTF.

The real problem in my mind with a SHTF scenario is all the formerly normal citizens who are thrust into extreme difficulty.


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## Jason (Jul 25, 2009)

Geek999 said:


> Let's see: During SHTF should I be worried about the horde from the city next door, or the horde from Guatemala?
> 
> Sorry, but I think I'll worry about the city next door.


Keep in mind, Geek, for a lot of folks, people from countries below us (More Mexico than Guatemala, sure) _are_ essentially the people next door.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Jason said:


> Keep in mind, Geek, for a lot of folks, people from countries below us (More Mexico than Guatemala, sure) _are_ essentially the people next door.


I grant you that if I lived in Laredo, TX I might feel differently because the city next door is Nuevo Laredo, MX. However, if transportation is affected even getting from northern Mexico to Dallas becomes a very long walk. If Dallas is all screwed up due to SHTF, why go there?

Personally, I'd be inclined to stay where I was in those circumstances.


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## Gians (Nov 8, 2012)

Exactly what happened to make the City Dweller's homes untenable? If it's a nuke and/or an EMP, good luck driving anywhere. If it's a major quake, the rest of the country and structure will be there, just be sure to have enough supplies for a few weeks or months on your own. If it's an economic collapse, I imagine there would be food lines, stealing, prostitution, murder, etc...in other words the same as normal, just lots more of it. A nuclear accident or a terrorist attack on several major cities, would leave the rest of the country and world to eventually gather a response (of course if you're wandering around the country you'll miss any help). A pandemic would leave people either too sick to travel or dead. I'm just trying to imagine a situation where "hordes" in a city would want to leave and have the transportation and health to do it :scratch ...or perhaps my imagination is lacking :dunno:


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Gians said:


> Exactly what happened to make the City Dweller's homes untenable? If it's a nuke and/or an EMP, good luck driving anywhere. If it's a major quake, the rest of the country and structure will be there, just be sure to have enough supplies for a few weeks or months on your own. If it's an economic collapse, I imagine there would be food lines, stealing, prostitution, murder, etc...in other words the same as normal, just lots more of it. A nuclear accident or a terrorist attack on several major cities, would leave the rest of the country and world to eventually gather a response (of course if you're wandering around the country you'll miss any help). A pandemic would leave people either too sick to travel or dead. I'm just trying to imagine a situation where "hordes" in a city would want to leave and have the transportation and health to do it :scratch ...or perhaps my imagination is lacking :dunno:


In the cases where we have tried to evacuate major cities in recent years due to hurricanes, etc. it has generally not gone well. It wouldn't get easier with a more severe problem.


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## oldasrocks (Jun 30, 2012)

Jason said:


> This is actually something that really worries me. We live on roughly 250 acres of rolling farmland surrounded by woods and other farms about a half hour's drive south of downtown Pittsburgh. We're a bit off the beaten path but not by much. One of our neighboring farms is a major regional produce farm where suburbanites come all summer in droves to pick their own produce, starting with strawberries in the early summer and ending pretty much right now with pumpkins. They have thousands of "city folk" with shiny new SUV's there on a busy weekend. All of these people know that there is food literally lying in the fields, and these fields come within 100 yards or so of my house.
> 
> Most of our friends know we can and garden. We don't talk about prepping with them but it's known we put back some food in the manner of old time folks. Just last night one of my wife's friends joked that she was coming here if the world ends. I smiled, but ran cold inside.
> 
> ...


I strongly suggest you devise some passive defense. Do you have equipt to cut a road or two? Rolls of barbed wire to string low between the trees? Dig 8 inch holes 8 inches deep and camo over the holes. Think twisted and broken ankles. Nail strips in the road as far from home as you can. Gallon jugs of ammonia broken where people would walk. Thin the crowd down.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Caribou said:


> First, they may not be better off there. If the fan turns brown here it may turn dark brown there.
> 
> Second, even if they are better off there they may not perceive it that way. They currently perceive think of things being better in the U.S., normalcy bias will promote that opinion well past reality.


Even when normal folk realize they don't want to come here, the lawless population of Mexico likes and thrives in WROL conditions, so they are definitely coming!


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

It is only my opinion that a Hispanic horde will come from the south. I could be wrong and I hope that I am. 
No matter where any of us live if there is a nationwide SHTF event our neighbors could easily be our first worry. They are close by and could come to your house whether cars work or not. If they get truly desperate they could be a threat equal to the gang-bangers.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

I am hoping that my BOL is remote enough that I will not need to worry too much about this, however, if I don't get there or don't get there in time, I will need to deal with it at my primary residence (which is why I plan to bug out) or be part of this wave.

Who will make up the horde? Everyone. Literally. Eventually. 

The Golden Horde theory is based on a premise that if people lack what they need to survive they will flee. We all know that without re-supply most people lack food. They can likely survive 3-5 days on their pantry, and then another 3-4 weeks on their body fat.

Much more motivating than food, however, is water. Most people don't store it, particularly in the city, and so if the electricity goes out and as a result city water two factors will drive people, all people, thirst and fire.

Water drives everyone out, as does fire or another natural disaster. Food however, drives the law abiding folks first. The folks the officer was talking about, the project crowd, will I believe kill and terrorize each other as they scavenge for food where they live rather than move into unknown areas. They will move like locusts from area to area consuming what lays in front of them! I don't think these folks will think about food on farms because I would guess most of these people don't think of food as coming from farms but from fridges, and stores, and perhaps warehouses or tractor trailers. The law abiding productive folks may not leave for food so much as for safety from this violence that will pour out of unwalled ghettos. This in turn will begin the horde, which at least at first will be decent folks, but eventually will include the project crowd, who may have organized into gangs by the time they leave the suburbs.

However, I am not sure this distinction is too important. No matter how decent a person is if unprepared and stuck in a normalcy bias that "someone" is going to help you, these people will get desperate and hungry and become just as dangerous as the others, perhaps moreso as we will empathize with them and find it harder to talk a hard line with them as far as security. These are the folks who in my shoot no shoot tread I believe we have to consider dealing with now, in one way or another, because if we can't bring ourselves to use force against "decent" people then "decent" perhaps "unarmed" people are going to kill us.

A catastrophic breakdown that leads to a blackout and no water, forcing everyone out of the cities, would require a major event like an EMP, cyber attack, or NBC attack that would cause the government, at least local control, to fold overnight.

A slow gradual breakdown is more likely in the scenario of a partial collapse as government services and the rule of law slowly break down.


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## M1-thum (Aug 22, 2014)

IMHO I believe existing gangs will grow and new gangs will form in cities. They'll fight and die over what resources and territory they have within the city. At which point there is one thing that matters size:

the strongest/biggest will occupy cities or large parts of them and prey on anyone foolish enough to travel through those areas, and scavenge locally 

small gangs will either be absorbed into larger gangs, crushed, or move outside cities in all likelihood becoming mobile looting smaller towns and homes.


The rest of the "horde" will be everyone else, in groups they'd be dangerous but they'd be unorganized and unpredictable in all likelihood anything resembling existing authority, laws, Leo's, military or the perceived presence of one of these would deter them, especially in smaller groups.


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## doubleTHICK (Jun 19, 2012)

It seems, by most that have posted in this thread, the general consensus is that city-dwellers will leave the city for the country. If one believes this to be true, then that person should then prepare to have their Bug-Out-Location (in this case it's not 'L'and) in the city!

Start now. Plan and prep for survival in an urban environment, don't even bother with country stuff. An acre garden? Not in the city. A 10'x10' garden, or better yet, a back patio garden.

I think we get the point now.
TiredIron made a quick, fleeting point; _these _ people don't take much care of themselves NOW. Why would they start when there is nothing for them?

No way are they leaving the city. Government WILL be around initially, if they make it to the govt. set-up places they are never leaving. That is all they know.

They have no reason to come to the country, because they do not do it now. The city - to them - represents life as they know it. Food, cars, nightlife, health care, . . . daily existence. The country is a waste and has nothing to offer them. Whatever they can do in the country they can do easier in the city, their home.

I understand this is a discussion, which is great, but it needs to be a question asked on a personal level. It then must be answered both honestly and realistically. I can't decide if it is funny, or ironic that discussions such as these ALWAYS seem to follow Hollywood.

If things ever get that bad, govt. agencies gone bye-bye, the it will be too late. It is such a huge pill to swallow thinking that all of a sudden these people will suddenly decide to turn their life around and start being responsible and holding themselves accountable for their actions.

It's much easier to imagine some charismatic individual forming a group in the city. Of course this individual will be out for his best interest, but the people there are so accustomed to having an official telling them how to run their life it will be almost as if things are to be getting back to normal.

Just my $0.02


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

The thread started with a disparaging portrayal of city dwellers as the lowest end of the welfare, drug, criminal culture. While such people exist in any large city, most city dwellers are working families, just like the suburbs and rural areas.

In a disaster most are going to try to stay in place and the pace at which people are able to leave is going to be limited by the state of transportation. If roads get blocked by a few cars running out of gas, the result will be relatively few getting out.

I think the ones that do manage to get out are going to look more like a family of four with bug out bags, i.e. prepped for a hurricane, not an EMP, than some "horde" and they are going to be in pretty sad shape after a few days of living through whatever the event is.

I am more concerned about all the unprepared folks in my own area, which is suburban, than I am about some "horde" from a city. We did have the recent experience of Hurricane Sandy and despite news stories of looting coming from some really devastated areas, there was minimal crime. The entire area was without power for an extended period of time and despite the typical stereotype of everything falling apart in 3 days, nobody starved to death.

Overall, I expect a more gradual and less violent breakdown than most seem to expect. Furthermore, I think in a major disaster the best move for the unprepared will be simply to make the best of it right where they are, and most will attempt to do just that. It may not work if the event is too long, but living out of an apartment with no electricity is a lot better than living out of a backpack.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

I think we have actually achieved discussion!!!! Don't anyone have a seizure.
My opinion is that most people will stay in their comfort zone, which for most city dwellers is probably the city, those who would leave probably have a destination, I really don't see the average gang banger trying to go out to the bush and attempt the "Survivor Man" thing, If it (shtf) hits here in the winter a lot of people will just freeze to death in place, If the grid goes down, most people IMO will wait for more information, and run out of resources in a short time. Most of the PAW fiction is written from a prepared mind set, kind of hard to approach it from a sheeple mind set, because it doesn't exist to sheeple.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

And then there is the US government. If things got bad they would likely declare Martial Law. They could very easily stop all vehicle traffic with simple cement barricades. Foot traffic would be about impossible to stop and likely they would never try to stop those few people who would try that mode of travel. Who really knows what the government would do in a real nationwide SHTF situation but no matter what they did I doubt they could 'save' much of the population (if it involved a grid down scenario). Whatever they would do I doubt I would like it.


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## shadowrider (Mar 13, 2010)

While the "Golden Horde" may come, I know the "Dingy Trickle" will come!

They being the local "deserving" who now live off the rest of us while keeping the beer and dope runs going.

Yes, they are here in the rural areas now. You know them,you see them.

When the.gov teat goes dry they'll be in your garden, your chicken house, and coming in your back door.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Tirediron said:


> I think we have actually achieved discussion!!!! Don't anyone have a seizure.
> My opinion is that most people will stay in their comfort zone, which for most city dwellers is probably the city, those who would leave probably have a destination, I really don't see the average gang banger trying to go out to the bush and attempt the "Survivor Man" thing, If it (shtf) hits here in the winter a lot of people will just freeze to death in place, If the grid goes down, most people IMO will wait for more information, and run out of resources in a short time. Most of the PAW fiction is written from a prepared mind set, kind of hard to approach it from a sheeple mind set, because it doesn't exist to sheeple.


I'm glad you brought up the PAW fiction. I'm sure most of us have read a good bit of it and I think that it can provide some useful ideas on how to prep, but in order for it to work as a story, there needs to be a conflict between the protagonists and a variety of folks trying to do the protagonists harm, not to mention a love interest. Real life may not provide a storyline for a good novel.

In other words, reading the stuff may give you some good ideas for stuff to set aside, skills to acquire, etc. but the real apocalypse may not be a good story you would want to read.


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## haley4217 (Dec 16, 2012)

shadowrider said:


> While the "Golden Horde" may come, I know the "Dingy Trickle" will come!
> 
> They being the local "deserving" who now live off the rest of us while keeping the beer and dope runs going.
> 
> ...


For the past several months I started adding to my preps to hopefully deal with the "dingy trickle". We live in a very rural area of West Texas, a small town generally far enough away from big cities and off the regular direct route between large metropolitan areas. I generally agree with the discussion as it relates to the hoard leaving the cities and don't worry about a large migration from south of the border. In a SHTF situation of gradual decline our area will be the first to feel the effects of the government teat going dry. So, I am hoping that the dingy trickle will be open to suggestions that the government will be there to help them if they just go up the road to........(insert city name here). In my way of helping here's a bag with some supplies a little cash and maybe even 5 gallons of gas.

Hope is to get them out of the area before it comes to the decision of whether to shoot or not. Unfortunately many of these dingy trickle I know and even grew up with. I know they're not going to change or ever even accept the idea that the government will reach a point where it can't and won't take care of them. Seems easier to "help" them evacuate then have to see them in the crosshairs.

Sent from my iPad using Survival Forum


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

On the subject of what the government might do, there are several variables. First is what is the scenario? Depending on the scenario, they may not be able to do much. The idea of martial law or blocking roads assumes they are still functioning. That may or may not be the case. The second issue is are you referring to federal, state, or local? In a true SHTF scenario, I would expect the federal and state authorities to be spread so thin they wouldn't matter. Local authorities will vary from place to place in terms of their actions.

Finally there is the issue of how far into the event you're discussing. During Hurricane Sandy even local authorities could not get to my place because of downed trees from the storm. They pretty much had their hands full directing traffic until trees were removed and power restored to traffic lights. If we had something like an EMP that left most vehicles functioning, I would expect them to be tied up with traffic duty due to lights not working until people ran out of gas.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

doubleTHICK said:


> No way are they leaving the city. Government WILL be around initially, if they make it to the govt. set-up places they are never leaving. That is all they know.
> 
> They have no reason to come to the country, because they do not do it now. The city - to them - represents life as they know it. Food, cars, nightlife, health care, . . . daily existence. The country is a waste and has nothing to offer them. Whatever they can do in the country they can do easier in the city, their home.
> 
> ...Just my $0.02


We experience Government as a ubiquitous because our government is so geographically diverse and redundant. When a disaster causes government to collapses in one place, government from another place or level (state, federal, globalist) quickly fills the void. We see this today even on the international level because in reality one of the worst fears of modern people is the absence of government, to protect them from others!

However, we see glimpses of no government after major natural disasters. There was no government around after Katrina, they all ran away abandoning the folks at the astrodome. That was a localized disaster, so the normalizing pressure quickly pushed government authority back in.

In a national disaster however, if the causes of the disaster, or their ramifications, are severe enough, government can collapse, in places, without other governments having the ability to fill the void. So in a sense you are correct, we have so much government that it is unlikely that it all collapses, but if it collapse in a city like you, their may not be a state or federal government with the ability to step in.

THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF YOU LIVE NEAR A MEDIUM (read: unimportant) CITY. If you live near DC, Boston, NYC, or Philly then it is more likely to have some government step in.

All that being said, I really believe it comes down to water, if the power grid fails the water system fails, and if the water system fails, no government will be able to maintain order!

If they can keep the water on, and keep people (moderately) fed, then sure they won't leave the cities.

The problem for prepping in the cities is the golden horde originates in the city and doesn't leave until they are wastelands. Strangely if the water goes out and you were somehow able to store enough water to survive that would give an urban refuge the best chances. Best, but still not good, because IMHO decaying utilities makes the city a dangerous place.


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## VoorTrekker (Oct 7, 2012)

In the very early 1500's a Spaniard explorer was touring the Amazon River Basin and visited several metropolis'. They fed themselves on very fertile terra preta soil 2 meters depth. When the population began getting sick and dying from diseases, infected from the various explorers, a pandemic ensued. 

People fled the cities into the Amazon jungle. After one or two generations of wilderness tropical rain forest living, all semblances of metropolitan civilization were lost to the descendants. Today they are known as the Amazon Indians. 

A pandemic may be the only thing that would cause self evacuation of a city. Most people would sit it out waiting for information as to where to find sustenance or relief. Should a large band of people begin hoofing it out of the city, I think most would perish from exhaustion, dehydration and lack of motivation and discipline.

Many people lose their intellect rapidly in purely survival hand to mouth subsistence living ("...in a hunter gatherer sort of way..") and hence, zero liability voters, zero income dependents, people with no ambitions or vision.


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## doubleTHICK (Jun 19, 2012)

But I am one of those crazy conspiracy guys. I fully believe the powers that be KNOW that one day *soon *things will go to crap - and then their plan gets set in motion. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't have different scenarios with different action plans to deal with the mess.

Remember, this is all part of the plan. How better to control the people than to take away their daily existence and replace it with a new type of govt.

Yeah I know, it sucks living this way (conspiracy guy thinking our own govt. is out to get us) but C'mon man, how else can anyone justify $17 TRILLION AND COUNTING with NO actions being taken to change things??????

Just for fun and off-topic http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Padre said:


> All that being said, I really believe it comes down to water, if the power grid fails the water system fails, and if the water system fails, no government will be able to maintain order!
> 
> If they can keep the water on, and keep people (moderately) fed, then sure they won't leave the cities.


This depends on the specific city and water system. During Hurricane Sandy we lost electrical power over a wide area and it was very slow coming back. However, the water and natural gas continued to operate. This was largely due to extensive above ground electrical lines while the water and gas lines are in the ground and were therefore unaffected by downed trees the way electrical lines were.

Now being without electrical power is a pretty big deal if you live on the 30th floor of a Manhattan apartment building, so I don't want to minimize that, but generally throughout the NYC area electrical service is vulnerable and water and gas seem to be more reliable.

In a different geographic area you might not get the same result.


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## Radstev (Oct 6, 2011)

Geek999 said:


> Why would Hispanics want to come here if the SHTF? In that situation they would be better off where they are.


Basically most of Mexico is SHTF WROL already, as long as they could get enough fuel to return they could loot more in a day then they could earn based on merit in a year.

My personal belief is that most of the entitlement class will not leave the city until after they have gotten really thirsty or have drank bad water. The only thing that gangs can claim as an achievement is the area they control and they wont want to give it up just because the food stamp cards don't work. The entitlement class has a bad diet and isn't smart enough to know about food safety so I don't see them going far. Given videos from when the food stamp system went down for 8 hours in 16 states on 10-12-13 they are more likely to burn down a welfare office then have knowledge of how food grows.

Hurricane Katrina had over 1/3 of cops abandon their posts with the only ones seen on TV the day after was 2 female black cops in uniform looting a Wallmart. If there is no payment system there will be no govt workers showing up out of the goodness of their heart. Hurricane Sandy gave NYC a weeks notice but people with nice cloths where dumpster diving for food 2 days post. The Grand Jury in Ferguson is planning on not releasing their findings until Jan when it will be too cold for blacks to behave badly outside, if SHTF in winter the horde has little chance.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Radstev said:


> Basically most of Mexico is SHTF WROL already, as long as they could get enough fuel to return they could loot more in a day then they could earn based on merit in a year.
> 
> My personal belief is that most of the entitlement class will not leave the city until after they have gotten really thirsty or have drank bad water. The only thing that gangs can claim as an achievement is the area they control and they wont want to give it up just because the food stamp cards don't work. The entitlement class has a bad diet and isn't smart enough to know about food safety so I don't see them going far. Given videos from when the food stamp system went down for 8 hours in 16 states on 10-12-13 they are more likely to burn down a welfare office then have knowledge of how food grows.
> 
> Hurricane Katrina had over 1/3 of cops abandon their posts with the only ones seen on TV the day after was 2 female black cops in uniform looting a Wallmart. If there is no payment system there will be no govt workers showing up out of the goodness of their heart. Hurricane Sandy gave NYC a weeks notice but people with nice cloths where dumpster diving for food 2 days post. The Grand Jury in Ferguson is planning on not releasing their findings until Jan when it will be too cold for blacks to behave badly outside, if SHTF in winter the horde has little chance.


Re: Mexico. So how does that work when transportation systems are FUBAR?

Re: Folks drinking bad water. They'll never make it out, so they aren't a problem.

Re: Gangs. By your analysis, they'll stay where they are now.

Re: Entitlement class. You may see looted stores as you suggest, but in the past that has always happened locally. It has not moved out of the area where the folks involved live.

Re: NYC dumpster diving. You've got a bit of that on a good day. I don't believe it was any more widespread during Sandy with the possible exception of the devastated shore line areas.

Re: Ferguson. I wouldn't consider that a SHTF scenario, nor is there a "horde" coming out of that small town. If anything there are more outsiders going in than folks coming out.

None of that leads me to think that there is a "horde" going anywhere. Quite the contrary, it suggests that the problem is who your neighbors are. If you live in an area populated by gangs, welfare queens, etc. your problem isn't an outside horde, it is the place you have chosen to live.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

I don't know whether the hoard will be hundreds, or thousands, or tens of thousands. If only one shows up at my front door I want to have a plan. I have a plan for EMP. I have a plan for ebola and a number of other scenarios. Do I think we are going to get hit with an EMP during the middle of an ebola pandemic? Unlikely.

Plans are what I do, it is who I am. I have been driving with my headlights on during daylight for almost thirty years. When I started I was almost the only one, now most do so. Has it ever saved me from an accident, there is no way to know. I started wearing a seatbelt years before it was the law. I hate the law though I think wearing the belt is a good idea. I don't expect to be in an accident but I still wear the seatbelt. I have thought through the risk and I have instituted plans and actions to minimize my risk. I have been in one accident in recent years. I was rear ended so neither the headlights nor the seatbelt helped, I still employ both.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Caribou said:


> I don't know whether the hoard will be hundreds, or thousands, or tens of thousands. If only one shows up at my front door I want to have a plan. I have a plan for EMP. I have a plan for ebola and a number of other scenarios. Do I think we are going to get hit with an EMP during the middle of an ebola pandemic? Unlikely.
> 
> Plans are what I do, it is who I am. I have been driving with my headlights on during daylight for almost thirty years. When I started I was almost the only one, now most do so. Has it ever saved me from an accident, there is no way to know. I started wearing a seatbelt years before it was the law. I hate the law though I think wearing the belt is a good idea. I don't expect to be in an accident but I still wear the seatbelt. I have thought through the risk and I have instituted plans and actions to minimize my risk. I have been in one accident in recent years. I was rear ended so neither the headlights nor the seatbelt helped, I still employ both.


Planning is good. I agree that knowing how you want to deal with someone who knocks on the door is a good idea. During Sandy I had exactly one neighbor knock on the door. He wanted to know if I had Internet access and if he could send a couple emails. I didn't have access so I told him no. He said thanks and left. I'd expect in a larger disaster more requests I either couldn't, or chose not to accommodate, but I'd expect neighbors, not a horde of people from some distance.


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## readytogo (Apr 6, 2013)

*Evil doers on both side of the fence.*

I have notice the same talk on the few forums visited; fear of the unknown, the collapse of humanity, city dwellers vs. country folks, people fearing to talk about their preparedness, or ability too. I have lived through 2 major riots, major because the National Guard was put on duty and curfew was put in place, looting took place, whites, blacks, Hispanics where all involved, one riot was right in the middle of the city, the other in a farming city setting mainly surrounded by farms and fields, the cities shopping centers where both hit hard by all alike, people looting as criminals and others looting for survival but the farms where left untouch, exept for the damage done by the weather. The point here is that city dwellers will loot just as much as country folks in like situations, in a small town hit by a tornado and level there is nothing left to loot, in a major city surrounded by malls and big shopping centers there is plenty to loot and more people to do the looting, I witness this in Lawton, Ok after a small tornado hit the town way back in the 70`s when I was station at Ft Sill. No one can predict the future or the coming event; a tornado can wipe out one side of the street while leaving the other side untouched, taking with it all your preps in a second or your BOL can be flooded by a small rain or melting snow. Not all city dwellers are zombies but not all country folks are Cinderella's either, we have our fare shared of evil doers on both side of the fence.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

readytogo said:


> I have notice the same talk on the few forums visited; fear of the unknown, the collapse of humanity, city dwellers vs. country folks, people fearing to talk about their preparedness, or ability too. I have lived through 2 major riots, major because the National Guard was put on duty and curfew was put in place, looting took place, whites, blacks, Hispanics where all involved, one riot was right in the middle of the city, the other in a farming city setting mainly surrounded by farms and fields, the cities shopping centers where both hit hard by all alike, people looting as criminals and others looting for survival but the farms where left untouch, exept for the damage done by the weather. The point here is that city dwellers will loot just as much as country folks in like situations, in a small town hit by a tornado and level there is nothing left to loot, in a major city surrounded by malls and big shopping centers there is plenty to loot and more people to do the looting, I witness this in Lawton, Ok after a small tornado hit the town way back in the 70`s when I was station at Ft Sill. No one can predict the future or the coming event; a tornado can wipe out one side of the street while leaving the other side untouched, taking with it all your preps in a second or your BOL can be flooded by a small rain or melting snow. Not all city dwellers are zombies but not all country folks are Cinderella's either, we have our fare shared of evil doers on both side of the fence.


This posting made me think, here in the country, very few lock their doors or remove their keys from the ignitions on their vehicles. But this doesn't mean that there isn't bad people out here. In fact most carry and they are not afraid of someone trying to breaking in or trying to steal some thing. When the sheriff is 30 mins away we have to take care of our self's and the sheriff understands this.

The really bad people in the country are the ones that live here. The farmer that lives next to me has a class 3 FFL and I can here automatic gun fire fairly often. I see people with fire arms walking past my place often enough that I don't notice it any more. I was stopped by a deputy at a car accident. When the deputy came over to my truck to tell me what happened I had an auto 9mm on the dash with extra magazines all loaded and I had my mini on the floor next me with several hundred rounds and the deputy just looked at them and walked away. If I would have been in the city I'm sure that it would have been an issue.

A neighbor 5 miles north of me wrapped his wife in barbed wire and drove over her with his tractor several times. The sheriff didn't know about it for several months when the wife's relative got suspicious. They found her body in sewage pond tied to a pipe 10 feet under water.

Near the railroad tracks a farmer found a burned body with only the bones still recognizable. The murder was never caught.

On our family ranch a fisherman found to bodies semi buried and under a rotting log. The authorities say they have been there for years. It was never solved.

Almost every year a body or two are found in a valley or a wooded area and are never solved.

I would have to say that if the horde comes to the country not all of them will survive.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Geek999 said:


> So in SHTF I should worry about gangbangers from Guatemala more than I should worry about gangbangers in the city next door? I don't think so.


No.... But then again, you have no idea what it's like to live in Texas.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Tweto said:


> The really bad people in the country are the ones that live here.
> Almost every year a body or two are found in a valley or a wooded area and are never solved.


You don't live too far from Omaha, IIRC...

WOW! Times change!!


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

LincTex said:


> No.... But then again, you have no idea what it's like to live in Texas.


Actually, I am familiar with TX, though I haven't lived there. As I mentioned earlier if I lived Laredo, I would worry about Nuevo Laredo, but it is a long walk from Laredo to Dallas.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

LincTex said:


> You don't live too far from Omaha, IIRC...
> 
> WOW! Times change!!


I live about 30 miles from Omaha. I lived in Omaha till I was 30 and then moved to the country.


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> I grant you that if I lived in Laredo, TX I might feel differently because the city next door is Nuevo Laredo, MX.


You're a smart guy so I'm sure you'd realize the very real danger you were in anywhere close to the border. It's a little different sitting in where you are.



Geek999 said:


> However, if transportation is affected even getting from northern Mexico to Dallas becomes a very long walk. If Dallas is all screwed up due to SHTF, why go there?
> 
> Personally, I'd be inclined to stay where I was in those circumstances.


If TSHTF in the US, the flow of a good chunk of the money going into Mexico comes to an abrupt stop, making a bad situation down there even worse. Mexican gangs & drug cartels have a very strong presence on the border & in many of the larger cities in states along the border, do you see a reason they wouldn't take advantage of the lack of LE? They take advantage of the lack of LE now, are they suddenly gonna have a come-to-Jesus moment when TSHTF? :dunno:


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

tsrwivey said:


> You're a smart guy so I'm sure you'd realize the very real danger you were in anywhere close to the border. It's a little different sitting in where you are.


You're correct. Everyone in my home speaks Spanish except me. The Hispanic neighborhood is about a mile away. The Chinese neighborhood is about 3 miles away. I spend most days working with people from a wide variety of countries. The flow of immigrants comes in through the airports, which obviously shut down in SHTF.

However, if you've been following me in other threads you know that what worries me are not the immigrants but the bears. 



tsrwivey said:


> If TSHTF in the US, the flow of a good chunk of the money going into Mexico comes to an abrupt stop, making a bad situation down there even worse. Mexican gangs & drug cartels have a very strong presence on the border & in many of the larger cities in states along the border, do you see a reason they wouldn't take advantage of the lack of LE? They take advantage of the lack of LE now, are they suddenly gonna have a come-to-Jesus moment when TSHTF? :dunno:


This depends on the nature of the problem. Given everyone's favorite du jour, a pandemic, only a complete idiot (like Thomas Duncan) would want to come here to get sick. For the perennial favorite, an EMP, transportation is either a) screwed immediately, or b) screwed when everyone runs out of gas. Either way that means the bad guys will be moving at the pace of about 10 miles per day. That takes motivation. Then again if you are a fan of economic collapse, everything has become worthless, so why bother?

Besides the border is wide open now. If they want to come here there is no need to wait for SHTF.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

Geek999 said:


> Planning is good. I agree that knowing how you want to deal with someone who knocks on the door is a good idea. During Sandy I had exactly one neighbor knock on the door. He wanted to know if I had Internet access and if he could send a couple emails. I didn't have access so I told him no. He said thanks and left. I'd expect in a larger disaster more requests I either couldn't, or chose not to accommodate, but I'd expect neighbors, not a horde of people from some distance.


I think one of the differences between us is the size of a disaster we are talking about. As bad as Sandy or Katrina were they are relatively small compared to some of the potential disasters this country faces. Sandy was a regional disaster and the rest of the country could turn out to help. In a country wide or world wide disaster the system would be overwhelmed and we would be left to deal with our own problems. If you had not received outside aid I suspect that your experience and therefore your opinion would be different. I pray that I am never proved correct.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Caribou said:


> I think one of the differences between us is the size of a disaster we are talking about. As bad as Sandy or Katrina were they are relatively small compared to some of the potential disasters this country faces. Sandy was a regional disaster and the rest of the country could turn out to help. In a country wide or world wide disaster the system would be overwhelmed and we would be left to deal with our own problems. If you had not received outside aid I suspect that your experience and therefore your opinion would be different. I pray that I am never proved correct.


What I think others are missing about a TEOTWAWKI scale event is the lack of transportation. For the most part people, including any "horde" will die within 50 miles of where they are when transportation fails, whether they die quick or die many years later.

Specifically with Sandy the combination of downed trees and no gas really crippled transportation in the area. For the first 3 days I could not drive more than a couple hundred yards from my home and I was not at the shore where the worst mess was. I would expect transportation problems very quickly in any grid down scenario. I then expect the bias to be to stay near home until it is too late to do anything else. I don't expect large numbers of miscreants to decide that a grid down scenario is the perfect time to take a several hundred, or several thousand, mile hike. For those that do take such a hike they are going to run into supply problems and people willing to shoot to hang on to what they have. If you have to do a home invasion per day just to eat, how long will you last before you get shot?

In the event of an EMP I expect people to first struggle to get home, including criminals, and only then consider going elsewhere.

The horde to worry about are the folks in your neighborhood.


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> The flow of immigrants comes in through the airports, which obviously shut down in SHTF.
> 
> Besides the border is wide open now. If they want to come here there is no need to wait for SHTF.


Ummm, perhaps the flow of immigrants where you live comes on a plane where at least we know who they are, where they came from, what they are bringing into the country, & why they're here. however, not all Americans are afforded that luxury. Most of the immigrants around here snuck over the southern border & we have no idea who they are, where they're from, what they brought with them, or what their intentions are. That makes the immigrants you deal with & the illegals I deal with a completely different scenario. You seem to dismiss others experience & knowledge of Hispanics when it doesn't match the Polyanna view you have. I'm a nurse & my husband owns a construction company & has for 20 years, we see the ones *without* green cards. I doubt the bank hires many folks without green cards.

I have no doubt that in a long term SHTF situation, the Mexicans here, especially in the cities, will band together & do what they need to do to survive. I think there will be much more division along ethnic lines. There will be many more joining the gangs, as there is in any high poverty situation. In many areas with a high Mexican population, my bet is the Mexican gangs & drug cartel will rule & you will join, get out or die. The resources inside the city will eventually be consumed, they will have to spread out to the suburbs & the country or die. Criminal does not always equal stupid.

In the country, some could probably make it since they already garden, hunt, fish, keep goats & chickens, have water wells, septic tanks, etc. One key asset they have is their family is more likely to have lived off the land in recent generations and they're more likely to have the older generations living with them to advise instead of thrown in an old folks home.


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> The horde to worry about are the folks in your neighborhood.


I agree, at least in the initial period after the event. Our plan for the neighbors is to help them get set up with some seed, chickens, & rabbits. There will be plenty to do so they're welcome to come work for a meal if need be. They already have water wells, septic tanks, wood stoves, & can garden, hunt, trap, & fish.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

tsrwivey said:


> Ummm, perhaps the flow of immigrants where you live comes on a plane where at least we know who they are, where they came from, what they are bringing into the country, & why they're here. however, not all Americans are afforded that luxury. Most of the immigrants around here snuck over the southern border & we have no idea who they are, where they're from, what they brought with them, or what their intentions are. That makes the immigrants you deal with & the illegals I deal with a completely different scenario. You seem to dismiss others experience & knowledge of Hispanics when it doesn't match the Polyanna view you have. I'm a nurse & my husband owns a construction company & has for 20 years, we see the ones *without* green cards. I doubt the bank hires many folks without green cards.
> 
> I have no doubt that in a long term SHTF situation, the Mexicans here, especially in the cities, will band together & do what they need to do to survive. I think there will be much more division along ethnic lines. There will be many more joining the gangs, as there is in any high poverty situation. In many areas with a high Mexican population, my bet is the Mexican gangs & drug cartel will rule & you will join, get out or die. The resources inside the city will eventually be consumed, they will have to spread out to the suburbs & the country or die. Criminal does not always equal stupid.
> 
> In the country, some could probably make it since they already garden, hunt, fish, keep goats & chickens, have water wells, septic tanks, etc. One key asset they have is their family is more likely to have lived off the land in recent generations and they're more likely to have the older generations living with them to advise instead of thrown in an old folks home.


I'm not sure why you are so disparaging of my views. I am not minimizing the border problems with immigration today. What I am saying is a lack of transportation will reduce mobility for everyone, including potential immigrants.

The problem individuals will be the folks nearby at the time of the event.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> I'm not sure why you are so disparaging of my views. I am not minimizing the border problems with immigration today. What I am saying is a lack of transportation will reduce mobility for everyone, including potential immigrants.
> 
> The problem individuals will be the folks nearby at the time of the event.


Initially the unprepared locals and local government will be your first problem.

Lack of transportation slows people down. It doesn't stop them. The Mormons crossed this nation walking and pulling hand carts.

Distance may protect you for awhile but not for long. it could very well end up like the "old west" with outlying, isolated farms being raided by well-armed and determined thugs. Look at some of the things that happened during the civil war. Who knows what it will be like!?!


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

Geek999 said:


> I'm not sure why you are so disparaging of my views. I am not minimizing the border problems with immigration today. What I am saying is a lack of transportation will reduce mobility for everyone, including potential immigrants.
> 
> The problem individuals will be the folks nearby at the time of the event.


I am not as disparaging of your views as much as you seem to be disparaging of mine. As I and others have said repeatedly, yes, you need to be concerned about the locals and they will be the first that you have to deal with. You seem to totally dismiss our concern about the long distance masses. You may wish to look at various large scale disasters around the world where the masses have evacuated countries. In the U.S., during the Great Depression, people traveled across the continent to find work. Things got so bad that armed people manned the border of some communities to keep others out.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

To be able to travel the distances people did in the 1800s, or the folks in war torn areas do today, they need a level of fitness and ability to live off the land that most do not have today.

Specifically, the border crossers today take a bus or some other transport to the border, cross, and get on another bus to where they are going.

For comparisons like the Mormons, or other pre-automobile age travelers, where are you going to find Conestoga wagons and horses to pull them? How far can you really get with no supplies, no transportation and no ability to hunt?

If you try to steal, that may work for awhile, but sooner or later in a country with 100 million gun owners, you will get shot. I'd say anyone taking that approach won't last a month.


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> I'm not sure why you are so disparaging of my views. I am not minimizing the border problems with immigration today. What I am saying is a lack of transportation will reduce mobility for everyone, including potential immigrants.
> 
> The problem individuals will be the folks nearby at the time of the event.


No problem with you, my very next post I agreed with you! :kiss:

I prep for several different scenarios, not all of them involve transportation shut down.

Even in the event of EMP, not all vehicles will be toast. Again, in my experience the Mexicans are typically a resourceful people & many are either professional mechanics or shade tree mechanics. They tend to be car guys & like old school cars & trucks, probably at least because you can work on them. They may be more mobile than the average white guy.

Also, depending on where an EMP strikes, Mexico/South America may or may not be effected. In an EMP event, I think the gangs & drug cartels will end up with many of the functioning vehicles in the border towns & big cities. Liberals aren't the only ones that won't allow a crisis to go to waste. The people on the border will likely be overpowered by the drug cartels in the absence of LE & the folks in the big cities are largely democrats that think guns are evil so they're sitting ducks.

I agree, in a pandemic they'll likely stay where they're at or even go south across the border.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> To be able to travel the distances people did in the 1800s, or the folks in war torn areas do today, they need a level of fitness and ability to live off the land that most do not have today.
> 
> Specifically, the border crossers today take a bus or some other transport to the border, cross, and get on another bus to where they are going.
> 
> ...


I wouldn't dismiss people too lightly. There are an awful lot of people in good physical shape and they don't need to live off the land (which was pretty much a myth anyway ... most wagon trains hired people to hunt and scout) because they'll probably be raiding nearby farms, warehouses and homesteads.

There are probably more horses in the US today than in the turn of the century.

Like I said, outlying farms will be fair game for even small bands of raiders. I grew up in Kansas and we were well-versed in the tactics of guerrilla warfare in the Civil War era. Many small towns were laid waste by bands of fast moving raiders on horseback.

Never underestimate your opponents. Always assume that they're fit, crafty, well armed and determined. If they aren't you'll win easily. If they are and you think they aren't you'll never get a chance to be wrong again.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

mosquitomountainman said:


> I wouldn't dismiss people too lightly. There are an awful lot of people in good physical shape and they don't need to live off the land (which was pretty much a myth anyway ... most wagon trains hired people to hunt and scout) because they'll probably be raiding nearby farms, warehouses and homesteads.
> 
> There are probably more horses in the US today than in the turn of the century.
> 
> ...


The issue isn't underestimating "opponents", it is figuring out who they might be. For instance, should I be more worried about a gang member here in NJ or one in Mexico, or my next door neighbor, or the local cops? If I lived in Dallas, should I be more worried about a gang member in Dallas or Mexico or my neighbor or the local cops?

Without power, fuel will be a problem and transportation will be a challenge no matter what caused the power outage.

I've been through a couple minor quakes, blackouts, a tornado, more hurricanes than I can remember, and 9/11. In every single one of those events there were serious transportation problems, every single one. I can't see why transportation will work in a more severe scenario.


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## oldasrocks (Jun 30, 2012)

I haven't seen anyone mention the numbers of people out there who are retired military or at least have some military training. The military trained hordes will be the dangerous ones.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

tsrwivey said:


> The Mexicans here, especially in the cities, will band together & do what they need to do to survive. I think there will be much more division along ethnic lines. There will be many more joining the gangs, as there is in any high poverty situation. In many areas with a high Mexican population, my bet is the Mexican gangs & drug cartel will rule & you will join, get out or die...


This is the scenario I see as the most likely.

Don't be so quick to dismiss an inability to be mobile due to a lack of fuel. These people are FAR more resourceful than you are giving them credit for. 
They keep close tabs on where EVERYTHING is located. I'll guaran-damn-tee you they 'll take control of a tank farm if needed. Remember - who drives the fuel trucks around to refill the filling stations? Yep, and they all speak Spanish.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

oldasrocks said:


> I haven't seen anyone mention the numbers of people out there who are retired military or at least have some military training. The military trained hordes will be the dangerous ones.


Many of these vets in Texas speak Spanish as their first language, as well.

Yes, they are US citizens and served in the military, 
but remember that "blood is thicker than water"
... and that can make the difference.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Can't type anymore because I have to leave and find where I can buy more ammunition.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Wow this thread has had some energy!


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

BlueZ said:


> Wow this thread has had some energy!


It challenges assumptions. Since none of us knows the future, that's a good thing.


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## doubleTHICK (Jun 19, 2012)

LincTex said:


> No.... But then again, you have no idea what it's like to live in Texas.


Living along the I-35 corridor close to the capital, I can tell you that once you get to San Antonio and any further south, you may as well be in Mexico.

I joke and mess with people saying the U.S. / Mexico border is not at Brownsville or Laredo, it is at San Antonio. That is, el ciudad de San Antonio, Mexico


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

doubleTHICK said:


> Living along the I-35 corridor close to the capital, I can tell you that once you get to San Antonio and any further south, you may as well be in Mexico.
> 
> I joke and mess with people saying the U.S. / Mexico border is not at Brownsville or Laredo, it is at San Antonio. That is, el ciudad de San Antonio, Mexico


It has been over 90% Hispanic there all along. Laredo was 97% Hispanic 30 years ago.


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## Gians (Nov 8, 2012)

The American Southwest was part of Mexico at one time so it shouldn't come as a big surprise that we have a large Mexican population...legal and illegal. If you hire someone to paint a house, mow a lawn, pour a driveway, dig a ditch, trim a tree, pick fruit/vegetables etc. the crews are Mexican, most are good hard workers.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

I must say this thread has given me a lot to think about. My concern has always been about the (potential) mass exodus from Houston. I haven't worried about Dallas and San Antonio because they would immediately spread out in all directions. However, Houston will probably go north and then spread out and that might be problematic for this side of Texas.

After reading, pondering, surmising, discarding, embracing, and somehow getting new concepts to take hold I realize (as several of you have so eloquently stated) the initial biggest threat would be within this rural community. While the majority of us have preps - primarily because the practice was handed down for generations - there are enough people who just don't feel the need to have anything on hand for emergencies. The people most likely to knock at the door will be the ones who know you.... not the stranger from Houston.

So the next step is how to handle those situations. While some of you are preparing bags for the neighbors and wanderers, I would be hesitant to do so because it would be similar to the hobo markings of the depression. One person tells another person..... and you wind up taking away from your family to give to others who, with rare exceptions, _had a choice to prepare and chose not to do so._

It's a lot different when we're talking about the strangers from the megacities coming through versus friends and neighbors who just didn't do what they knew they should do. The local risk becomes exponential. What to do....... what to do.......


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Country Living said:


> I realize the initial biggest threat would be within this...community. The people most likely to knock at the door will be the ones who know you.... not the stranger from Houston.
> 
> So the next step is how to handle those situations....


That is indeed a huge threat. You have to make a list beforehand who you can help and who you won't.

Remember the 1961 Twilight Zone episode called: "The Shelter"?


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

To complicate matters remember that there will always be an "after" when some sense of normalization is established. At that point, those who are left will remember who was good and who wasn't.

Decide now which list you'll be on. Try to be the neighbor you want next door to your house.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

mosquitomountainman said:


> There will always be an "after" when some sense of normalization is established.
> 
> At that point, those who are left will remember who was good and who wasn't. Decide now which list you'll be on. .


Quoted for truth, and because I can only "Like" it once!


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

> Originally Posted by Country Living
> 
> I realize the initial biggest threat would be within this...community. The people most likely to knock at the door will be the ones who know you.... not the stranger from Houston.


http://survivalblog.com/

Your Friends, by D.D.

Most people don't see the need to prepare. To them, these funny stories about the end of the world (in one form or another) are nothing but a passing amusement, at best, or the ravings of paranoid doomsayers, at worst. Still, though, they have a backup, fool-proof plan, just in case they are wrong. This plan, of course, is to come to your house.

As soon as they hear of any of your preparations, they casually invite themselves over:

"If anything does happen, I know where I'm going&#8230;"

They speak as if you're preparing to carry their burden, too, and as if you're dedicating your finances and time to taking care of a bunch of people who will show up with empty hands and empty minds.

You remind them. You offer to assist them. You give them lists, ideas, or invite them to courses or to teach them a few skills. This of course is received with polite smiles and nods. Then they go about their happy little lives just as they did before. After all, why should they prepare when you are doing it for them?

Think of all that you have done and everything you have gone without. The frugal living, the cost of stocking, and the endless research and training. You buy property, raise crops, and livestock, or at least learn to do so. To them, you've done all of this to make yourself an asset for these people, of course. Your preparations are your peace of mind. Your preparations are their peace of mind, too.

When everything goes south, they will act like the rest of the sheep. They will first attempt to stock up on supplies at the last minute, and then they'll hide in their houses bleating for help. Once the water and power go out, or their VERY limited supplies dwindle, they will remember their "friends"- the ones with rooms full of food and weapons. Looking down at the tear- and worry-filled eyes of their family members, who are pleading with them to just do something, they will assuage their fears with stories of the promised land- their good friends who will take them in and save them all.

They will come knocking. Oh how happy they'll be to see you, parading their poor deprived and helpless children in front of you. Their faces will absolutely glow with the relief of having "made it". The word "friend" will be used quite often. Their eyes may start casting about for a likely place to sleep and a bite to eat.

Of course they'll admit that they were wrong and that they should have listened to you. They'll even promise to never let this happen again. They say that once it's all over they'll pay you back and you'll never have to worry about them showing up. I'm sure they'll talk about how useful they'll be. Most won't be able to build a fire, and they've already proven they don't have mentality to survive or ration. You can't house them, especially if you're on the move. You can't equip them. Do you want to arm them? Do you have the extra guns to arm them? Do they know anything about marksmanship or ammo conservation? Once they have a gun, they'll not likely give it back, and they are going to be in a much stronger position to argue your distribution of food and such.

Now they'll want to be taught. Do you have the time and supplies to teach them to shoot, hunt, build a fire, and so forth? Be my guest, if you do. Teach his whole family, too. I, for one, know that I won't, as things are now. Maybe he has selfish, undisciplined, noisy brats, who are picky eaters and throw tantrums all of the time. Maybe you can help raise his kids real fast now that there's an emergency.

They don't understand rationing or your planning. They just know that you have what they need, and in their eyes you have plenty of it. If you've planned for enough food and water for your family to last until the crops start producing, you can't afford to double your numbers. Of course they won't want to hear that. They want to eat and drink now, not later. They need it. You'll hear stories of how this is all going to blow over soon, so rationing like that won't be necessary. They thought they could read the future and didn't prepare, because nothing was ever going to happen, and now they're reading the future by telling you when the emergency will be over. It'll be pretty much the same kind of thinking that got them into the situation they are in now, and subsequently, that kind of thinking got you into their situation seeing as how they are standing at your door. Even if you can get them to understand the math, it won't matter; without it, they are going to die.

Even if you take them in, then what? You've taken on a group of people that have no skills and no supplies. Even worse, they are most likely not mentally prepared. These people are now reduced to a labor class. His grateful and thankful demeanor will probably not last once his belly is full and his foreseeable future is secure. Maybe he's got a gun in his hands now. What are they going to think when you won't give a gun to them? They'll be animosity when you're sleeping in the tent that was a part of your preparations and he's sleeping on the ground. Women and children need special care, of course. He'll expect it for HIS women and children. You don't want them to be cold, do you? There's going to be talk of fairness, democracy, and his "share".

His interests and priorities will not change if things get tight. Who do you think he's going to make sure is fed? He's going to look out for himself and his family first, just like you would.

These problems will be multiplied, if he shows up with anyone else. He might have an extended family, his neighbors in tow, and anyone else he's met along the way. He's led a crowd to your front door. Now you're dealing with an army or multiple families that come complete with their own priorities and dynamics.

Some people may think they can just take them in temporarily, help them form a plan, and so forth. Do you really think they're going to leave? The terror and helplessness they felt while listening to their family cry is a powerful motivator. Do you really think they are going to go back to that situation where they have no food, no water, and hordes of lawless criminals roving the countryside? Even if they do go, they won't make it far, and they will be back shortly with their hands out.

Are you capable of turning them away? If they show up at the door tired and hungry, you may be their last resort. He's forced you to choose between your family and his. You may have to put a gun in his face to get him moving.

Some people are righteous in calling you selfish in a situation like this. They abhor people that "plan only for themselves". This is an unrealistic view for most of us. If I'm putting away as much supplies as I can and it still isn't enough, what am I supposed to do when cutting them in half is going to kill my wife and kids? This is not the old world, it is a new harsher world where people are forced to make hard decisions. (Believe you me, they will be very ready to make hard decisions if you know what I mean.) My family can live for two weeks or all of us can live for two days. Some people think you should commit suicide like this by giving away and sharing everything they can, in hopes that it will all work out and that your combined knowledge and work will just somehow provide for you all.

The conversation may go something like this:

You: You can't stay here. I don't have enough food, space, or water to take care of my family and all of you.

Them: You just can't let us die!

You: You did this to yourself. You're just going to kill all of us a little slower.

Them: How can you do this to us? I thought we were friends?

You: As a friend, you're asking me to starve my children?

Them: I never thought you'd could be so cruel and selfish. You have plenty. We just need your help until this blows over.

You: I warned you. I told you so. You refused to prepare. You did nothing. Don't blame me.

Them: I thought we were friends?!

You: Did I shoot you in the face as soon as you showed up?

Them: No.

You: Then start walking, friend.

If a fight doesn't break out right there, it's going to be far from over. They will be back one way or the other. A day later when the criminals are raping his wife while they beat the crap out of him, what bargaining chip do you think he's going to use hoping for a little mercy? He'll be spinning tales of the promised land full of food and shelter. He knows just where to go and can lead them right to it. Maybe it won't even be criminals of that sort. Maybe he'll mass his own army with those same tales, whipping them into a righteous fury about the rich and selfish bastards that would rather see them all die instead of sharing a little of their wealth. Of course, a little of your wealth actually means all of your wealth.

Even if they don't kill you, they will descend on your stores of food and supplies like a plague of locusts. You're as good as dead.

All of us have friends that we think we know. Very few of us have seen them when they are pushed to the extreme and their very survival is on the line. People are just not the same when they are looking towards the end of their life. Gone will be the smiles and good nature. Morals and civility will be replaced with a desperation that has no boundaries and a new-found murderous inclination. When pressed, people will quickly become dangerous. We had all better be prepared to see a very dark side of humanity. People tend to be a lot happier with a full stomach and no worries as to where they are going to sleep. As soon as those things are gone, they become something else entirely. Once they feel that kind of fear and worry, they'll be far more violent and defensive when you suggest they might end up back in that position.

Let me give you a real world example that happened during the first gulf war:

This involved soldiers, buddies that had trained together, disciplined military fighting men, members of a platoon that were enjoying some "off" time. During this time there was a constant fear of attack with chemical weapons and everyone was supposed to have their gas mask close by, at all times. In an underground bunker with about 150 soldiers in (at the moment) a non-combat situation, someone ran down the stairs and yelled "GAS! GAS! GAS!" This being the military verbal signal for an imminent or occurring chemical attack and the signal to immediately stop breathing and don your mask and other protective gear. This is trained, this is drilled, and this is planned for. Most immediately fell back on their training and initiated this process. As with all large groups of people, you will have someone that isn't ready, panics, or foolishly thought a threat wasn't real. (One man couldn't get the snaps on the mask holder to open.) There were people who couldn't find, or had strayed too far from, their mask; they didn't lay down and die. They turned on their "brothers". Those without masks began ripping them off of the those with masks. Real fights broke out. These were fights that, to the individuals, were considered life and death, and serious injuries were taken on both sides. The fights erupted from willingness to take a life to save their own, a choice of preferring their life over the lives of others. It was a true showing of who and what they were when threatened. What was basically said was, "You have something I need to live. I'm going to take it from you, and I don't care if it kills you." If military men, who train to go into battle and risk life and limb, will act like this against the men they call "brother", what do you think the average person is going to do to you? This is not some isolated incidence with these particular people. I'm fairly certain that if you reversed the people with and without masks at the beginning, the outcome would have been the same. On a side note, there wasn't a gas attack; it was a false alarm.

Do you think that your prepper buddies or "friends" are above instinct and survival? They may actually be more dangerous than the average person. Anyone that knows you have supplies is going to come for them. If they were well-prepared and for some reason lost everything they had, they'll come knocking, before they lay down and die. When the hunger sets in and the cold bite of winter is descending on them and their family, you're the first person they're going to think of. You can even discuss this very article, and sure enough when the time comes they'll choose themselves over you, and they won't be alone when they come.

Everyone is the hero of their own story. Everyone is special and an exception in their own minds as to why you should give, loan, help, and save them. All of them think that because you're their "friend" that you're going to take food out of the mouths of your children and give it to them. They all think they are worth something. It is in our nature to think of ourselves in the best light. They will list all of the things they can do. They will honestly not understand why you're turning down such an asset, and they will be offended. They'll think that a few supplies (if any) in their backpack equals months of upkeep. They think that their status with you, when all is well, is going to add weight to their begging and pleading. They'll think that you seeing them crying and starving on your door step is going to earn them some mercy. For some of us, it will. I'm not one of those people. I have a feeling that when I explain this to people, they just don't get it. They think it won't apply to them, because they "know where they're going if it hits the fan&#8230;"

The point is to show the desperation of people who are watching their families die.

I'm trying to address the problem of desperate people showing up at our doors, whether friends or otherwise, by picturing myself in their shoes. I'm trying to imagine my "friends" with the true desperation that only comes when they see death as being just a matter of a few hours away. I'm trying to think of my state of mind if I were watching my children dying and the means to save them is behind someone else's locked door.

"You come trying to take my stuff and you'll have a fight on your hands." Yes, I know. Saying this doesn't prepare us for it. It offers no reflection on the situation. Believe it, that anyone attempting to take what you have isn't going to be thinking that they'll waltz in and make a sandwich. It won't be just a matter of you killing someone or you making hard decisions about survival; they, too, will be just as willing to kill and make hard decisions. Of course, this is the case with me, as well. It goes without saying that we'll defend our property and families, but it does nothing to help us with what and who we're going to deal with.

So if I step over to the other side for a second:

I'm a thinking man with military experience. I wouldn't just knock and then attack when told "no". My desperation would only cause me to use a tactical mind in that situation, and then stack the deck in my favor to increase my chance of winning. I'd leave and come back after dark. I'd shoot a few people from a distance, first, perhaps. I wouldn't wait until the last minute when my kids were at death's door; I might have been scoping your place out for a week. A defensive position can be a horrible thing. I'm a VERY good shot at long range. Can you patrol and protect your acreage? How many sentries can you lose? Even if you had enough sentries, how many would be shot on post without even seeing the shooter before the next guy would refuse to go? Are you going to harvest crops or pump well water with a sniper out there? Have you got a fire team or squad that's willing to sally forth and flush a sniper? Good luck.

If you could pinpoint my position with reasonable accuracy, and if I didn't move as soon as I fired, I would just run away as you made much slower progress, taking cover with some kind of advance by fire and maneuver. Hopefully, there's only one sniper out there, too. He may not have ever taken a shot and is just sitting in a cross position waiting for just such an attempt. Maybe we'll be doing our own withdraw with covering fire. Hopefully, I don't have an ambush prepared and I'm not leading you right into it. If you've got the ability to button up and never come out, in hopes that I will go away, fine.

I know many ways of making Molotov cocktails, and I know how to make them so that they fire from a shotgun so they will travel far and hit what I want them to hit. Let's face it though, to know that you had to button up in full lock-down mode, you probably lost at least one person already. Someone dying would have been the notice that it was time to lock down. I wouldn't have shot the first person that came out; I would have waited until there were a few targets spread out and available. After whoever was left was locked up inside, I'd first see if wreaking havoc on your solar panels, windmill, crops, well, water supply, et cetera would bring out a few more targets. I'd consider raids for livestock, if it were safe, or destroying their feed, if it wasn't. Then I'd consider setting the building on fire; something edible could probably be salvaged, and if not, there would be no loss on my part. Using hit and move tactics, I could keep several households buttoned up for a long time. Just a quick "knock" on the door with a long range shot would keep heads down for a week. Depending on supplies and position, I might be willing to let a month go by without a sound, just waiting for someone to test the waters.

Imagine that situation: Someone dies, so you all bunch up. A month then goes by without a sound, and the first person to stick their head out gets it taken off. How much time would have to pass before the next person tried it? Hopefully you are prepped to withstand a siege and your preps contain some manner of dealing with a month of human waste and garbage build up, not to mention the high stress.

Once the shooting started, any talk of peace or negotiation would be met with extreme suspicion and likely treachery from my side.

All of that is a little overt. I wouldn't necessarily go head to head with you. What is more likely is lots trips to scoping it out and then very subtle thefts, which might not go noticed for a long time. I'd disable a piece of equipment, like a well or generator, in some subtle way again and again, randomly, over a long period of time, until it became common place and thought nothing of. "Dang it! The well isn't working again! I got it this time, I'll be right back." What was thought to be a quick fix for a common problem becomes a kidnapping and hostage situation. After the search party is met with gun fire, the negotiations over your loved one can begin. You'd button up safe and sound listening to the torture night after night. See how long it takes you to work out some kind of deal. If it doesn't, we eat him and start over.

Even without training, people aren't stupid. All but the most desperate won't engage in a fight that they have no chance of winning. They'll think at least a little about it. You're mostly likely not going to face a charging horde of "Madmax"-style raiders, waving around sharpened stop signs. They probably won't go charging up your driveway screaming a war cry. They're going to ambush you or use deception or trickery.

I wouldn't be alone; I'd recruit people as desperate as myself and promise them food. They would take heart in the security they'd feel from hearing the same things their sheep heads have been filled with all of their lives. I will have learned from our government and politicians. I will know them for what they are: helpless, starving, tired, and scared sheep who are willing to sacrifice their morals, freedoms, and values for the mere promise of food and security. Their fragile unprepared minds will be reeling from the shock of IT hitting the fan, in whatever manner IT hit it. Not only will their minds be blank little slates, they will have been prepared all of their lives to already believe that they should be given anything they think they need, regardless of whether they earned it. I will give speeches about what they DESERVE. I will talk about the greed of those (you) who have while they have not. I will label you RICH and SELFISH. I will hammer their little minds with words like PLENTY and phrases like DOING THE RIGHT THING. I will explain and they will understand that you evil people are willing to let their children die instead of doing just a little sharing. I'll take the insanely desperate parents with small children- the ones at death's door- and promise them food, now, for suicidal risky raids and/or attacks. In short, I'd whip them into a righteous murderous fury focused straight at you.

These are the people you will face, and they will be lead by someone with a tactical mind. They will be people willing to throw their lives away for the sake of their own children. They'll be covered, taught, guided, and backed up by select few that do the long-range shooting and tactical decision making. You will never see my face. I know that mobs like this often turn on themselves, and as long as everyone is fed they'll stay in line. I'll forever be ready to fade away. After all, I only need some of what you've got before I do it all again. I can be the strong leader full of empty promises they need (and are used to having) in the short term. I'm also perfectly willing to throw them at you as cannon fodder.

Now, how to fix or stop it? It's either going to be very hard or very easy.

First and foremost, keep your mouth shut. The fewer people that know your preparations the better. No one will forget a bullet-proof house full of food and guns. If you're like most preppers, you're a planner and thinker. You're the kind of person that people are going to come running to, anyway. This, combined with trying to get your friends to prepare, is going to get you a bunch of door knockers, once it hits the fan. Even if everyone you know had no clue you were preparing, you're the kind of person they're going to try to team up with to get through it all. Still, silence is golden.

Imagine how many new friends you'd have, if you were to win the lottery. Think of the people that would all of the sudden be a much closer friend if you did; those are the easily identified leeches and problem children. Decide now who your real friends are, not the ones that are fun to have a beer with, but the ones that will never make you chose between them and your family. Decide now if you'll support them. If the answer is "no", tell them flat out right now; when the time comes turn them away with stern warnings not to come back. Then, they won't be as surprised or hearing it for the first time.

A good friend of mine has a 30 day Auguson farm food bucket at my house with a backpack of other things. I store the same at his house. We both consider the supplies at our house as belonging to other person; it is their property. I consider him a true friend and a valuable asset, post SHTF. I wouldn't turn him away, even if he showed up empty handed. This method ensures that he never will. If for some reason he couldn't stay at my place, I'd hand him his supplies and wish him luck. Of course, people like this are not ones you have to worry about.

Develop true friendships, and be the person that can be relied on.
Be so secret that no one comes knocking.
Be so remote that no one comes knocking.
Be such a hard target (or appear to be) that there are easier pickings elsewhere.
Think about what you would do in their shoes.
Many think that people will lose their humanity in extremely stressful situations. Personally, I think it's just a darker side of humanity that we had better be prepared to see. In the end, it's not just going to be the grim and hard decision of shooting someone that will not go away. It's going to be a fight with another human being who is as interested in surviving as you are.

I know the comments are about to roll about looters and thieves and about how we're prepared for it. The point of this isn't to show you how your preps won't work or how you'll be overcome. The point is to think of this from another angle- it won't be a gunfight in a classic movie sense. Those lines like, "Over my dead body", "I"m prepared for thieves", "Let them come", and others like them are words that prepare us for nothing.


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## mojo4 (Feb 19, 2012)

Geek999 said:


> The thread started with a disparaging portrayal of city dwellers as the lowest end of the welfare, drug, criminal culture. While such people exist in any large city, most city dwellers are working families, just like the suburbs and rural areas.
> 
> In a disaster most are going to try to stay in place and the pace at which people are able to leave is going to be limited by the state of transportation. If roads get blocked by a few cars running out of gas, the result will be relatively few getting out.
> 
> ...


I gotta agree with geek here!! Yes geek.... I agreed with you! I have no desire to they to drag along floor and supplies for 3 little ones along with them on the road. Nope.... staying home because I cant carry the kids and enough supplies to last us more than a couple of days and if we are going to walk away I wouldn't make it 20 miles with the kids. Bunker in place and gather friends and family in any abandoned homes nearby.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Something to think about and hash over:

What about forming small community groups with members who work together. One of the ways churches handle panhandlers who go from church to church in a community is to band together. 

What if those in your "community" band together to share some of the resources with others? All "outsiders" seeking assistance must go to a centralized point where such assistance is doled out by a single individual who is in charge. Anyone going to a single home for assistance is sent to the community distribution point with an explanation that all community members have agreed to not give out individual donations or help. All solicitations must go through the community larder. If nothing is available they get nothing and are sent on their way. If something is available the community can set the standards for assistance such as taking classes on using whole grains, gardening, hunting, fishing or whatever. You as a community can limit the amount of help given and the conditions under which it is given. You take care of each other first and you police your own ranks regarding slackers, etc. But you present a united front to all outsiders.

The community should work toward cohesiveness for personal protection at all levels from threats within and without. I know several places where this is the plan. That way after things calm down you still have community and the "community" shares the flak from those turned away.

Any thoughts?


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

mosquitomountainman said:


> What if those in your "community" band together to share some of the resources with others? All "outsiders" seeking assistance must go to a centralized point where such assistance is doled out by a single individual who is in charge.


The churches in this community send ALL panhandlers to a special contact at the police department. They must pass a background check (for warrants) before given aid.

It's a win-win-win for everyone.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

mosquitomountainman said:


> Something to think about and hash over:
> 
> What about forming small community groups with members who work together. One of the ways churches handle panhandlers who go from church to church in a community is to band together.
> 
> ...


This assumes that the community is on board with prepping. Mine isn't, which is why I expect them to be the problem. The folks are nice enough in norrmal circumstances. They just aren't into prepping.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

Geek999 said:


> worries me are.......the bears.


I know.... off topic. Apologies are in place.

<sidebar> I couldn't quit laughing at your statement. I just watched the 1917 silent movie "The Poor Little Rich Girl" with Mary Pickford. What scared her the most were the bears. She didn't know why the bears were so frightening; however, her father worked on Wall Street during the collapse and in one of the dream sequences bears surrounded him. OK... .so you have to like these kinds of movies and the irony that almost 100 years later the bears are still scaring people.

What I found fascinating about the movie, besides the bears, was a 25 year old actress playing an 11 year old girl and managing to pull it off. <sidebar off>


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Country Living said:


> I know.... off topic. Apologies are in place.
> 
> <sidebar> I couldn't quit laughing at your statement. I just watched the 1917 silent movie "The Poor Little Rich Girl" with Mary Pickford. What scared her the most were the bears. She didn't know why the bears were so frightening; however, her father worked on Wall Street during the collapse and in one of the dream sequences bears surrounded him. OK... .so you have to like these kinds of movies and the irony that almost 100 years later the bears are still scaring people.
> 
> What I found fascinating about the movie, besides the bears, was a 25 year old actress playing an 11 year old girl and managing to pull it off. <sidebar off>


Uh, we actually do have bears in NJ and I don't mean like Bulls and Bears I mean like higher on the food chain than us bears.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Geek999 said:


> ...I mean like higher on the food chain than us bears.


That depends on whether you want them higher than you or not. 
I'd rather eat, then be eaten.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

LincTex said:


> That depends on whether you want them higher than you or not.
> I'd rather eat, then be eaten.


Sorry, no 2nd amendment in NJ. You'll be dealing with that bear bare handed (pun intended).


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Geek999 said:


> Sorry, no 2nd amendment in NJ. You'll be dealing with that bear bare handed (pun intended).


There's more than one way to skin that cat!

(Both the law, and the bear)


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

LincTex said:


> There's more than one way to skin that cat!
> 
> (Both the law, and the bear)


They have a law against knives too.


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## M1-thum (Aug 22, 2014)

How does everyone plan on dealing with people post event? Do the normal rules apply when it comes to force? How will you decide? Wether these are people you know or not might determine how you react. What's everyone's thoughts? 

Mine are pretty simple if at all possible deter them from entering the property. If they continue, are they visibly armed? Either way a stiff warning to "leave immediately or ____ ". If they continue to approach and I feel harm may come to me or my family I see no reason not to use force


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

M1-thum said:


> How does everyone plan on dealing with people post event? Do the normal rules apply when it comes to force? How will you decide? Wether these are people you know or not might determine how you react. What's everyone's thoughts?
> 
> Mine are pretty simple if at all possible deter them from entering the property. If they continue, are they visibly armed? Either way a stiff warning to "leave immediately or ____ ". If they continue to approach and I feel harm may come to me or my family I see no reason not to use force


Depends on the event and the people.


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

M1-thum said:


> How does everyone plan on dealing with people post event? Do the normal rules apply when it comes to force? How will you decide? Wether these are people you know or not might determine how you react. What's everyone's thoughts?
> 
> Mine are pretty simple if at all possible deter them from entering the property. If they continue, are they visibly armed? Either way a stiff warning to "leave immediately or ____ ". If they continue to approach and I feel harm may come to me or my family I see no reason not to use force


1- We observe OPSEC, no one knows we prep that isn't invited to stay when TSHTF. Keeping your mouth shut will prevent a lot of these awkward situations from ever happening.

2- We live on a dead end country road so there shouldn't be any passerby's.

3- we plan for charity. Being charitable is a requirement for us & that doesn't change based on circumstances.

4- we're not big on calling 911 for security concerns, we're the do it yourself type, so that won't be a big change. Our standards for shooting or not shooting will remain the same even though our opportunity to exercise those standards may be much more plentiful.

Standards for dealing with others are constant, they don't fluctuate with the circumstance.


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## DM1791 (Oct 6, 2014)

M1-thum said:


> How does everyone plan on dealing with people post event? Do the normal rules apply when it comes to force? How will you decide? Wether these are people you know or not might determine how you react. What's everyone's thoughts?
> 
> Mine are pretty simple if at all possible deter them from entering the property. If they continue, are they visibly armed? Either way a stiff warning to "leave immediately or ____ ". If they continue to approach and I feel harm may come to me or my family I see no reason not to use force


 I think this is one of the toughest questions to answer while sitting in my over-stuffed arm chair in a comfortably climate-controlled office having just filled my belly with a bowl of my signature five-pepper chili. I can imagine and envision all the scenarios I want in my head, but the truth is I just don't know.

I like to think I will be able to hold onto my humanity and help people. I want to believe I am the kind of person who will gather as many people as I can and lead them to safety. I want to be the man that is willing to lay down my life in preservation of the principles of love and charity that I have built my entire existence around.

But the truth is, at times, a hard pill to swallow.

I think I will operate as I always have: Deal with any direct threat with a direct and immediate response. Always maintain awareness and vigilance. Always assume the best, but anticipate and plan for the worst. Never draw first, always fire first (slow is smooth, smooth is quick).

And, above all, pray.

This is one of the questions that has driven my writing over the last 5-6 years. I have posted a series of short clips from an idea I've been kicking around for a while concerning an EMP attack. I also have a full length novel I am putting the finishing touches on for a viral pandemic scenario (ironically, I modeled the virus off Ebola and started my research about 5 years before the current outbreak hit). This question is one that is really difficult to answer, but is absolutely vital to consider.


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## Radstev (Oct 6, 2011)

Geek999 said:


> It has been over 90% Hispanic there all along. Laredo was 97% Hispanic 30 years ago.


The majority of citizens of San Antonio are white, that's why Voter ID is important, & why O-Hole wants amnesty as he knows who votes for more free stuff.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

Radstev said:


> The majority of citizens of San Antonio are white, that's why Voter ID is important, & why O-Hole wants amnesty as he knows who votes for more free stuff.


I'm confident I'm not the only one taken aback by your statement.

The first percent is Bexar County. The second number is San Antonio Metro. This is a census behind; I believe the "white" number is now around 29%.

San Antonio Metro Area

*White* 29.6% *36.45%* 
*Hispanic/Latino *59.10% *53.8%* 
Black/African American 7.00% 6.08% 
Asian 2.40% 1.92% 
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.10% 0.09% 
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.20% 0.22% 
Two or More Races 1.40% 1.29% 
Other Race 0.20% 0.15%


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

San Antonio is also a good bit north of the border (110 miles by memory). Laredo is dramatically more Hispanic than San Antonio, which is more Hispanic than Dallas. If you want to claim San Antonio is 70% Hispanic, not 90% Hispanic, I'm not going to argue.


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## weedygarden (Apr 27, 2011)

M1-thum said:


> How does everyone plan on dealing with people post event? Do the normal rules apply when it comes to force? How will you decide? Wether these are people you know or not might determine how you react. What's everyone's thoughts?
> 
> Mine are pretty simple if at all possible deter them from entering the property. If they continue, are they visibly armed? Either way a stiff warning to "leave immediately or ____ ". If they continue to approach and I feel harm may come to me or my family I see no reason not to use force


I know people who have been helpless and fools for years. I stay away from them, but if the phone rings and it is them, they want, want, want. They are often desperately in need due to poor or no planning on their part. I am just cold, and I have to be. Recently one of them got his first apartment. I had stuff and I was glad to get rid of it. I had more than I could fit in or on my car, and I was offered help loading it. No thanks, I can do it. And I did. I do not want to remind you of where I live and I do not want you to think that all the stuff in the garage might be able to go your way because you have your six pack every night and no money days before pay day. Of course they wanted a Uhaul, but had no money for one. Mattress on the roof, over stuffed chair in the trunk, on and on.

There is more than one reason for being so cold now. If they don't see a warm friendly face now due to their foolishness, they won't be so eager when everyone is desperate. Plus, they are used to working the system.

Too many have thought it was better to tell people to prepare, thus showing their own hand, than to keep their mouths shut.


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

weedygarden said:


> I know people who have been helpless and fools for years. I stay away from them, but if the phone rings and it is them, they want, want, want....


Yep. you nailed it.

Example, single Sister-in-law #1. Has a son and grandson (16 years old).

She mentions that her house gutters have saplings growing out of them and wonders if someone could clean them for her. She says this as she looks directly at me. I didn't respond.

Later Sister-in-law #2 comes up to me. She has volunteered her husband and me to clean out #1 gutters. This time I do respond, "no".

"Don't you want to help someone in need?"

"Why doesn't her son or grandson clean out the gutters?", is my response.

"They don't know how!"

"Well it's time they learn. 8 foot step ladder, climb ladder, use hands to clean gutters.", is my final comment.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

weedygarden said:


> I know people who have been helpless and fools for years. I stay away from them, but if the phone rings and it is them, they want, want, want. They are often desperately in need due to poor or no planning on their part. I am just cold, and I have to be. Recently one of them got his first apartment. I had stuff and I was glad to get rid of it. I had more than I could fit in or on my car, and I was offered help loading it. No thanks, I can do it. And I did. I do not want to remind you of where I live and I do not want you to think that all the stuff in the garage might be able to go your way because you have your six pack every night and no money days before pay day. Of course they wanted a Uhaul, but had no money for one. Mattress on the roof, over stuffed chair in the trunk, on and on.
> 
> There is more than one reason for being so cold now. If they don't see a warm friendly face now due to their foolishness, they won't be so eager when everyone is desperate. Plus, they are used to working the system.
> 
> Too many have thought it was better to tell people to prepare, thus showing their own hand, than to keep their mouths shut.


Any time you mention prepping you are taking a chance. I'll take that chance for either someone I really care about, or someone I am very sure will take the message to heart.

So far I have not been disappointed by those I have chosen to trust in this manner. In fact, I know of one case where I told a young man that he was welcome to join us in an emergency and that it would be helpful if he brought food with him. He spoke to his grandmother, with my permission, and she started to stock up.

These are people I both care about AND who took the message to heart.

So while I agree blabbing is foolish, and will probably get you a Chicken Little reputation, there are some people you can help and you might be helping yourself in the process.


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## doubleTHICK (Jun 19, 2012)

Country Living said:


> I'm confident I'm not the only one taken aback by your statement.
> 
> The first percent is Bexar County. The second number is San Antonio Metro. This is a census behind; I believe the "white" number is now around 29%.
> 
> ...


Yeah, you're not alone.
You northern people can only imagine how bad it is for us border states. I mean c'mon, can you honestly say you haven't noticed a rise in the numbers of Latin people? NYC/NJ probably not so much, but in otherwise areas that were never anything but white. Harrisburg PA, have you noticed a rise in your area with Latinos? I know the answer already - YES, you have.
Where I grew up in east Atlanta, a suburb of ATL, it was majority black and a few white . . . now . . . it is no longer "what's up cuz", but "hola mi amigo, que tal"
Longer story short. While you go off of numbers, please keep in mind those numbers ONLY reflect individuals that are reported. I go to San Antonio regularly and can tell you that it may as well be a border town. DO NOT CARE what numbers are pulled from a government website, San Antonio is heavily populated by Latin peoples.

If anyone cares, Hispanic is considered a culture, whereas Latin describes a race. Don't worry, everybody gets it wrong including different govt. agencies.

NO idea what this has to do with original post. Just wanted to say that NO WAY is San Antonio 25% Latino


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

doubleTHICK said:


> Yeah, you're not alone.
> You northern people can only imagine how bad it is for us border states. I mean c'mon, can you honestly say you haven't noticed a rise in the numbers of Latin people? NYC/NJ probably not so much, but in otherwise areas that were never anything but white. Harrisburg PA, have you noticed a rise in your area with Latinos? I know the answer already - YES, you have.
> Where I grew up in east Atlanta, a suburb of ATL, it was majority black and a few white . . . now . . . it is no longer "what's up cuz", but "hola mi amigo, que tal"
> Longer story short. While you go off of numbers, please keep in mind those numbers ONLY reflect individuals that are reported. I go to San Antonio regularly and can tell you that it may as well be a border town. DO NOT CARE what numbers are pulled from a government website, San Antonio is heavily populated by Latin peoples.
> ...


Not only have I noticed an increase in Hispanic or Latin people (take your pick) in NY/NJ, but I have also noticed an increase in Asians, Indians, Russians and Africans.

In fact I married a Hispanic woman and am quite happy.


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> Not only have I noticed an increase in Hispanic or Latin people (take your pick) in NY/NJ, but I have also noticed an increase in Asians, Indians, Russians and Africans.)


That is definitely NOT the case in Texas. We have two types of immigrants, Latinos & liberals fleeing the devastation they voted for. I much prefer the Latinos but would like a little variety. Of course the racist left only wants Latinos to immigrate here, not Germans, Russians, Canadians, etc.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

tsrwivey said:


> That is definitely NOT the case in Texas. We have two types of immigrants, Latinos & liberals fleeing the devastation they voted for. I much prefer the Latinos but would like a little variety. Of course the racist left only wants Latinos to immigrate here, not Germans, Russians, Canadians, etc.


I met a number of US citizens in Canada, but the only Canadians I have met here have been here a very long time. There is no significant migration from Canada as far as I know.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> I met a nummber of US citizens in Canada, but the only Canadians I have met here have been here a very long time. There is no significant migration from Canada as far as I know.


No significant migration here either but we have a lot of Canadians who own property here or come here for parts of the year in addition to those just visiting. We just had some purchase property across from us a couple of years ago. They were decent enough people for awhile until they decided to harass my dog at night. Didn't know it was them at first. The dog just started acting up around midnight two nights in a row. I thought a grizzly was checking the place out by the way the dog was acting (typical behavior for a grizzly is to make rounds at approximately the same time every night). The second night I headed out the door with my light off to keep from screwing up my night vision. I took two steps outside and racked a shell in the chamber of the shotgun (grizzlies are familiar with that sound too!). Heard a couple of sets of feet running away at full speed. I waited a few seconds and fired a shot in the air. Tracked them home the next day. Haven't had any repeat problems since that night. (I also moved a couple cameras to document any repeat attempts.)

Our biggest problems with Canadians is the way they drive and a lack of respect for private property. A large percentage of the fatal accidents in our area are due to Canadian drivers. They have little respect for our traffic laws and drive too fast and pass dangerously (often on solid yellow lines around curves).

Other than that they don't cause problems. Few come here to live. They have better deals for jobs in Canada. Most are buying vacation properties.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

doubleTHICK said:


> <snip>If anyone cares, Hispanic is considered a culture, whereas Latin describes a race. Don't worry, everybody gets it wrong including different govt. agencies.


I cringe every time I hear a person described as Oriental. Oriental is a rug. Asian is a race.



tsrwivey said:


> <snip>We have two types of immigrants, Latinos & liberals fleeing the devastation they voted for.


I'll keep the Latinos. The liberals are the problem. There's only one word for a person who moves to Texas and then complains about all the guns. _Move_.


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## Tucker (Jul 15, 2010)

Country Living said:


> I'll keep the Latinos. The liberals are the problem.


It's posts like this that make me reconsider participating on this forum.    Can't you keep this shit in the politics thread (where I don't even venture)????


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Tucker said:


> It's posts like this that make me reconsider participating on this forum.    Can't you keep this shit in the politics thread (where I don't even venture)????


What I said was a statement of fact, not just an opinion, and completely on topic. Just because there is a political forum doesn't mean that anything even remotely related to a political topic has to be sequestered to that forum where you won't be offended. For now, this still is the land of the free an other people's right to speak trumps your desire to not be offended. Lighten up.

PS I'm pretty sure the use of foul language IS against the rules & is offensive to some. Just an FYI since you're such a stickler for rules & offending others.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

What's been introduced isn't political. The idea of a liberal horde moving into your neighborhood is pretty scary!  Definitely worth prepping for!


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

:ranton:
Just like gay people, I don't have any problem with liberals. 
Believe what you want; it's still a free country.

Just don't change the laws so that I am then forced to live how you live.

Believe what you want, 
I will believe what I want.

I want to live FREE.
Not under rules you think I should live.

Rant off.
:rantoff:


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

LincTex said:


> :ranton:
> Just like gay people, I don't have any problem with liberals.
> Believe what you want; it's still a free country.
> 
> ...


That's the problem with both gays and liberals. They are not content to allow diversity, free thought or expression. Their ideal is group think and group act. It isn't about freedom ... it's conformity that they want.

And we have a very small non-white population in Montana so our biggest problem is invasion by liberals. I actually believe that if TSHTF it would solve our invasive species problems.


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## weedygarden (Apr 27, 2011)

Tucker said:


> It's posts like this that make me reconsider participating on this forum.    Can't you keep this shit in the politics thread (where I don't even venture)????


Maybe you would be more comfortable with a liberal forum. :wave:


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## tsrwivey (Dec 31, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> Not only have I noticed an increase in Hispanic or Latin people (take your pick) in NY/NJ, but I have also noticed an increase in Asians, Indians, Russians and Africans.


Hmmm If there are so many immigrants from countries other than Latin America, I wonder why every single time I call an 800 number for a national company, it's "press 1 for Spanish, 2 for English". Why are there not *any* other languages offered *ever*? Apparently Dish Network, Verizon, Blue Cross Blue Shield, & Direct TV aren't aware of this huge potential customer base either.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

tsrwivey said:


> Hmmm If there are so many immigrants from countries other than Latin America, I wonder why every single time I call an 800 number for a national company, it's "press 1 for Spanish, 2 for English". Why are there not *any* other languages offered *ever*? Apparently Dish Network, Verizon, Blue Cross Blue Shield, & Direct TV aren't aware of this huge potential customer base either.


Or maybe the others actually come here expecting to assimilate into the culture instead of expecting the rest of us to make life easy for them.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

mosquitomountainman said:


> Or maybe the others actually come here expecting to assimilate into the culture instead of expecting the rest of us to make life easy for them.


English is a very difficult language to learn. My wife, who is a native Spanish speaker and still has a heavy accent, has more difficulty with the phone than with face to face communication in English.

I think most who come here legally expect to assimilate, regardless of the country they come from. The ones who are here illegally plan to try to make some money and eventually return to their home countries, so they hide out in an ethnic enclave and don't assimilate.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Geek999 said:


> English is a very difficult language to learn. My wife, who is a native Spanish speaker and still has a heavy accent, has more difficulty with the phone than with face to face communication in English.
> 
> I think most who come here legally expect to assimilate, regardless of the country they come from. The ones who are here illegally plan to try to make some money and eventually return to their home countries, so they hide out in an ethnic enclave and don't assimilate.


I have a lot of respect for those who learn (in whatever stage they are in) English when coming here. I don't have any respect for those who come here illegally then expect the rest of us to have classes in their (non-English) languages or signs or tests or ballots or any other similar situation.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

mosquitomountainman said:


> I have a lot of respect for those who learn (in whatever stage they are in) English when coming here. I don't have any respect for those who come here illegally then expect the rest of us to have classes in their (non-English) languages or signs or tests or ballots or any other similar situation.


My impression is that whole trend is not driven by illegals expecting anything, but by liberals who for some reason think it is a good idea.

Here in NJ you cannot get a driver's license as an illegal, but they offer the drivers test in Spanish for legal immigrants. Unfortunately, the Spanish is so bad that if you take the exam in Spanish you are almost certain to flunk it. You need to review the English language booklet to prepare for the test, and take the exam in English for it to make sense.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

I find that people who immigrate and then immerse themselves in the language learn it well and loose a lot of their accent, those who still communicate in their native tongue at home never seem to learn to think in English, not that I blame them the language is a nightmare with two too many to s there they're and their. :gaah:

I have also found Mexicans to be good workers, but they (the one I have worked around) don't want to leave their comfort zones and seem to be reluctant to learn new skills, even in the same skill set.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Tirediron said:


> I find that people who immigrate and then immerse themselves in the language learn it well and loose a lot of their accent, those who still communicate in their native tongue at home never seem to learn to think in English, not that I blame them the language is a nightmare with two too many to s there they're and their. :gaah:
> 
> I have also found Mexicans to be good workers, but they (the one I have worked around) don't want to leave their comfort zones and seem to be reluctant to learn new skills, even in the same skill set.


Well, I have my wife and two daughters as my own little experiment in how hard it is to learn English. My wife is fluent, but has a heavy accent. It isn't for lack of effort. With the two step-daughters, one is extremely good with English and the other struggles, though she tries very hard and it is a very slow process for her to learn.

As for cultural assimilation, I feel that occurs over generations. If someone has come here for economic opportunity, or simply because their parents decided to move, that doesn't mean they need to drop every custom, or cease eating familiar foods, or assimilate in other ways. I do believe it is to their advantage to assimilate as fully as possible, but if the individual can work within the culture here while retaining a bit of their original culture and be happy, then that's fine.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

I am not disagreeing that English is a hard language to learn, and the level of difficulty will change for each person, some people lose their accent easily where as others never do. I have a customer who had 2 Japanese immigrants who worked for him, both great guys, one of them made the family choice to use English as their primary language and they as a family unit had a much easier time communicating. 

the English language leave a lot to be desired, but if it is a persons first language it becomes natural.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Tirediron said:


> I am not disagreeing that English is a hard language to learn, and the level of difficulty will change for each person, some people lose their accent easily where as others never do. I have a customer who had 2 Japanese immigrants who worked for him, both great guys, one of them made the family choice to use English as their primary language and they as a family unit had a much easier time communicating.
> 
> the English language leave a lot to be desired, but if it is a persons first language it becomes natural.


Using a language at home makes a big difference. On the other hand I once knew a family where they had lived in several countries. Each of them had a favorite language but knew about 6 languages in all. One of them would say something in one language and then the person answering would respond in their own favorite. It was a pretty interesting thing to observe.


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## VoorTrekker (Oct 7, 2012)

I won't comment on the difficulty of the English language, but it is obvious that people born and raised here never learned it either! Ever read posts on this forum and "text speak"?

It is even painfully worse when reading newspapers written by BA graduate "journalists."


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## DM1791 (Oct 6, 2014)

VoorTrekker said:


> I won't comment on the difficulty of the English language, but it is obvious that people born and raised here never learned it either! Ever read posts on this forum and "text speak"?
> 
> It is even painfully worse when reading newspapers written by BA graduate "journalists."


One of the most difficult things I have run into in trying to be an effective writer is balancing technically correct mechanical English and the conversational language that we use in every day life. If you write in a style that is too correct and too strict in adhering to the grammatical rules and regulations (I hesitate to abuse the term "law" here) then it comes off as robotic and it pulls the reader away from the subject matter. However, if I were to attempt to write material in a matter that adheres wholly to the conversational dialectic that we use in every day conversation, then the result would be intelligible only to those with whom I share the dialect.

I feel very real sympathy for anyone attempting to wade neck deep into the linguistic quagmire that is the "English" language. After all, classical English is an amalgamation of Latin, Celtic, Norse, Saxxon, Welsh, etc.

Then again, studying modern French, Italian, Spanish, etc. is much the same. You get a very different character of "Spanish" if you talk to someone from Mexico versus someone actually from the Iberian peninsula (i.e. Spain, Portugal, etc.).

I took a graduate level philosophy class in college called The Philosophy of Language. Very interesting class. Makes you look at written words in a completely different way. As the Great One (Stephen King) said in his book On Writing, language is really a form of telepathy and the written language is telepath coupled with time travel. When I tell you there is a white rabbit sitting in a cage on a table, I am really implanting an image in your mind. Your table may be different than mine. Your cage may be wire mesh, while mine may be plexiglass. Your rabbit may have stiff, straight ears while mine may have floppy ears.

But, in the end, I have given you the image of a table, a cage, and a white rabbit. Effective writing is all about knowing which details to give you, and which ones to allow you to create on your own.

It is interesting to note, on the subject of language, that the word in ancient Chinese that denotes civilization is the same that denotes the written word.

Food for thought.


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## OldeTymer (Feb 17, 2014)

Just might look something like this.............................

http://fergusonresponse.tumblr.com/


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

DM1791 said:


> ... But, in the end, I have given you the image of a table, a cage, and a white rabbit. Effective writing is all about knowing which details to give you, and which ones to allow you to create on your own. ...


Sums it up very nicely!


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## M1-thum (Aug 22, 2014)

Just a quick thought, depending what the event is even your neighbors could turn on you. I just saw a great example of this and failed opsec on Netflix last night. The twilight zone: the shelter 1961

I think for most of us we keep what we do quiet but there's bound to be someone that always says when SHTF im going to your house.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

The twilight zone: the shelter 1961
"The Twilight Zone" The Shelter (original title) A suburban dinner party is interrupted by a bulletin warning of an impending nuclear attack. As the neighbors scramble to prepare themselves, they turn against the one family that installed a permanent bomb shelter.


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## M1-thum (Aug 22, 2014)

hiwall said:


> The twilight zone: the shelter 1961


Thanks, I was on my phone at the time i posted and couldn't figure out how to do that!


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## Kodeman (Jul 25, 2013)

I was excited when I first found this thread, as I find the subject very interesting and enjoyed learning about different scenarios that are possible. Without trying to offend anyone it seems to have gotten a tad off topic from "What will the Horde look like". jmho


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Kodeman said:


> I was excited when I first found this thread,...."What will the Horde look like". jmho


It depends a lot on the area.

The nameless faces are the easiest to not have feelings for, 
but friends and family you've been telling to prep for years will be very hard to say "no" to.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

> it seems to have gotten a tad off topic


That's what threads do.


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## VoorTrekker (Oct 7, 2012)

As far as to whom to say no, it may matter on the degree of the hardening of one's heart. A weak, or confused person may have difficulty and even become victimized by the beggar.

Survival instincts can kick in and an alert person would deny access to the visitor. It may depend upon the amount of hurt a person has suffered compared to how easy their lives have been. 

I believe a hardened heart will have no problem turning away anyone coming to beg for help. It may also depend on how willing one is to detach and say good bye to those whom would burden unreasonably the person who has properly prepared.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

VoorTrekker said:


> As far as to whom to say no, it may matter on the degree of the hardening of one's heart. A weak, or confused person may have difficulty and even become victimized by the beggar.
> 
> Survival instincts can kick in and an alert person would deny access to the visitor. It may depend upon the amount of hurt a person has suffered compared to how easy their lives have been.
> 
> I believe a hardened heart will have no problem turning away anyone coming to beg for help. It may also depend on how willing one is to detach and say good bye to those whom would burden unreasonably the person who has properly prepared.


A person who was honestly begging because they need some food, like some boiled barley or oats, I would try to feed, if they agreed to do some work for it, someone who told me that I had to share with them because I have been privileged to live a lower standard of living because I grow food for sale, and now I have lots, would get an attitude adjustment. and if it didn't stick....


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## doubleTHICK (Jun 19, 2012)

OldeTymer said:


> Just might look something like this.............................
> 
> http://fergusonresponse.tumblr.com/


Just wanted to give this another chance to be back on top, pretty interesting if you can think beyond surface level.

Possible social engineering here??????? :dunno:

But what do I know, I'm one of those crazy conspiracy guys who believes this is all part of a bigger plan


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## DM1791 (Oct 6, 2014)

Hmm... Kind of like creating a system of complete and utter chaos and confusion so dangerous and potentially explosive that the citizenry demands a swift and effective response right?

I think the occupy movement was an awkward attempt at this. Call it a dress rehearsal or practice run. Now, between the race riots they're pushing in Ferguson and the immigration catastrophe being crafted on the southern border.... well, eventually the people are going to demand a response from their government. 

I'm sure that when they do, the administration will have a swift and effective plan ready for implementation.... if only they could get around the quaint restraints that some old, dusty documents place on them..... well, then they could really help us the way they need to....

Then, they could really keep us safe....


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## Jewel (Sep 6, 2014)

I'm a healer and a giver, it's very hard for me to turn anyone away so I've had to come up with a plan that works for the way i think. I've had to put things very plain and to the point, to myself. So i came up with a plan that I'v e lived by for many years now. I printed up a bunch of copies of the following..... 

"I am happy to feed you and/or tend your wounds, one time for free. After that you'll work for what you get or you'll leave. If you don't like the rules or at any time behave inappropriately, I will gut you and feed you to the pigs."


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## Jewel (Sep 6, 2014)

Justaguy987 said:


> The article
> 
> A lot has been written warning us of what will happen when the City Dwellers find their homes are untenable and vacate [en masse as The Golden Horde] for "the country", but I haven't seen anything on what the make-up of these hordes will be. The generic term "city dwellers" encompasses a lot of territory. Who will they be,what kind of shape will they be in, how will they be armed&#8230;all of these need to be examined.
> 
> ...


Well, I've just finally read the original post *-*

Although I'm not likely in the path of such a horde there are bad people everywhere. And plenty of people who's full proof survival plan is to take what they want and need from those who have.

I have no doubt that the most dangerous thing we will ever face is ourselves, in one form or another. I've seen first hand what humans can do, what they do to their children and women, and it is devastating.


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## DM1791 (Oct 6, 2014)

Love the part about the pigs.... for a good explanation of this kind of "disposal" system, see the movie Snatch. 


As far as the "horde".... I think you can see a pretty good picture of what the early days of a real catastrophic event/scenario if you look at what happened in Katrina, as the original post indicated.

I think the thing that caught most people (at least those not deep in the security/intelligence field) is just how rapidly social order broke down. A process people typically assume would take months, if not years, happened before our eyes in literally hours and days. 

This entire incident is what originally got me thinking about disaster preparedness in the first place. It is also what has really shaped my writing over the past ten years or so. That theme of rapid social breakdown is pretty evident in the story line I've been posting here, and in the novel I'm currently editing for publication. 

The general public has no clue just how fragile "polite" society really is. The average grocery store receives between 5 and 9 deliveries a day just to keep food on the shelf. In a large scale catastrophe or social/political/economic upheaval, those deliveries would be delayed at best, and completely interrupted at worst. Not to mention he effect if the water or power grid goes down. 

If you want to know what the "horde" will really look like, go knock on your neighbors' doors. Odds are, the "horde" will look just like them, but hungry, thirsty, terrified, and worst of all, desperate. And there is nothing in this world as dangerous as desperation.

Another great movie on this point is Hours. Paul Walker at his best, may he rest in peace.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Jewel said:


> I have no doubt that the most dangerous thing we will ever face is ourselves, in one form or another. I've seen first hand what humans can do, what they do to their children and women, and it is devastating.


Good Heavens, I surely hope you don't really mean that. 
I too, have seen "first hand" what some people can do, and it truly injures something deep down inside you ...far worse than seeing it on video, etc. 

I would never be able to be a cop, or a homicide detective, etc. 
Some of the stories I have heard make my insides turn, and I haven't even seen the pictures.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Most people should study history to get schooled on the very best man is capable of and also the very worst. Both are who we are.


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## notyermomma (Feb 11, 2014)

Oh god!! It's *already happening!!!*


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