# Sources of TEOTWAWKI



## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

I'm trying to come up with a list of possible TEOTWAWKI scenarios and would like some input from the membership to see if I missed anything.

Scenarios so far:
Space body hits the Earth
Solar Flare
Change in Solar output
Alien Invasion
Illegal Alien Invasion
War in US
Civil War
EMP
Terrorism
Economic Collapse
Civil Unrest
Zombies
Super Volcano
Natural Disasters
Fascist Government Regime
Change in Axial Tilt
Inept Government Regime
Anarchy
Coup d'etat
Coup de main
Global Warming
Global Cooling
Biological Pandemic
Chemical Attack
Nuclear Attack
Biological Attack
Computer Attack/ Hack
Disruption of Electrical/ Water/ Sewer Service
Food Distribution Issues
Nuclear Meltdown
Firestorm
Black Hole
Gamma Ray Burst
Martial Law
Famine

What have I missed?
I intend to do a risk rating on everything and put the results here.


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## Emerald (Jun 14, 2010)

Vampires
The Pax and reevers.


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## d_saum (Jan 17, 2012)

Emerald said:


> Vampires
> The Pax and reevers.


LOL.. Love the Serenity reference!

Oh and you forgot Werewolves and mummies! :beercheer:


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

My wife when she finds out that I washed the whites with the colored clothes!


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## mojo4 (Feb 19, 2012)

Just be sure to add a 50 foot marshmallow man and pink slime. Gotta cover the supernatural/occult angle. Other than that its a pretty squared away list.


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## PrepN4Good (Dec 23, 2011)

Wow, that's a pretty extensive list. I assume "re-election of BO" would be covered under several of those scenarios (inept govt regime, economic collapse, civil unrest, etc)...? :ignore:


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

The Rapture


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## ContinualHarvest (Feb 19, 2012)

Cylon invasion.


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

Solar eruption, werewolves, airborne AIDS, and an Elvis convention next door to an LSD symposium.


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## radio477 (Feb 9, 2012)

how about they keep colliding atoms and it creates a large burst of anti matter, aka black-hole


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## PamsPride (Dec 21, 2010)

Power grid failure


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Marcus said:


> I'm trying to come up with a list of possible TEOTWAWKI scenarios and would like some input from the membership to see if I missed anything.
> 
> What have I missed?
> I intend to do a risk rating on everything and put the results here.


I don't think you missed much, all I added was mad scientists, which theoretically could have been covered by several of the natural disasters, but is really distinct. One suggest I would make is that I think that you need to organize the list a little better to cover all your basis. First distinction I would suggest making is TEOW vs. TEOWAWKI. Things like The second coming of Christ or a Global killer space object, can't be prepped for (unless one of you has a space-craft capable of sustaining life) and thus would make discussing them a moot point. Next, I think we need to realize that there is a snowball effect that we should expect and so if one scenario happens then two or three other SHTF situations may result from it. For instance the power outage in India, could theoretically have been caused by some natural occurance and could theoretically result in something like a breakdown in the rule of law or economic collapse or famine. That being said here is how I would break it down to make sure your basis are covered...

I. Natural
A.Geological Threats (MEDIUM RISK)
1. Earthquake
2. Tsunami
3. Super Vocano's
4. Global polar realignment
5. Global cooling--Ice age
6. Global warming--floods

B. Solar Threats (MEDIUM RISK)
1. Decrease output--Ice age
2. Increased output--drought/floods
3. Coronal Mass Ejection EMP (High Risk)

C. Cosmic Threats (LOW RISK)
1. Asteroid (Medium Risk)
2. Destabilzation of the moons orbit (Low Risk)
3. Change of the orbits of any signficant mass in our solar system
4. Plague See III #1

D. Plagues (Bacterial or Virologic) (HIGH RISK)
1. Affecting humans
a. Long term (Medium Risk)
b. Short term (High Risk)
c. Zombie Apocalypse (Low Risk)
2. Livestock (Medium Risk)
3. Crops (High Risk)
4. Post-event necropolis (disease caused by masses of rotting bodies)

E. Decline in Oil Production due to Peak Oil (LOW RISK)

F. Famine (MEDIUM RISK)

II. Man Made 
A. Societal Breakdown (HIGH RISK)
1. Economic Collapse 
2. Infrastructure collapse
3. Rule of Law
4. Disruption of Food/Fuel Supply chain
5. Famine

B. Wars (LOW RISK)
1. Conventional
a. Civil (Medium Risk)
b. Bilateral
c. Multilateral
2. Terrorist/guerilla
3. WMD (Medium Risk)
a. Biological (see 1D plagues)
b. Chemical
c. Radiological (High Risk)
4. H-EMP (High Risk)
5. Firestorm--Hacking War (Low Risk)
6. Oil Embargo (Low Risk)

C. Tyranny (MEDIUM RISK)
1. Martial Law
2. Police state

D. Mad-scientists (MEDIUM RISK)
1. Medical Science
2. Agri-business
3. Nuclear Particle physicists

III. Alien (LOW RISK)
1. (MOST LIKELY) Celstial Virus/Bacterial Plague
2. Conventional Invasion from Outer Space


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

My humble opinion (most likely scenarios) that will be pre-cursors to TEOTWAWKI:

1) Energy shortage: a.k.a. Arab Oil Embargo (the last one really hurt) that slows down the transportation of food and goods, and prevents people from getting to and from work.

2) Major weather event (hurricane, drought, etc.)

3) Rolling blackouts due to shutting down coal fired plants, or other major power grid failure.

4) Dollar collapse and/or other major economic failure


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## TheAnt (Jun 7, 2011)

Oh, oh, dont forget "Grey Goo" ... one of my favorite!


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

Padre said:


> I don't think you missed much, all I added was mad scientists, which theoretically could have been covered by several of the natural disasters, but is really distinct. One suggest I would make is that I think that you need to organize the list a little better to cover all your basis. First distinction I would suggest making is TEOW vs. TEOWAWKI. Things like The second coming of Christ or a Global killer space object, can't be prepped for (unless one of you has a space-craft capable of sustaining life) and thus would make discussing them a moot point. Next, I think we need to realize that there is a snowball effect that we should expect and so if one scenario happens then two or three other SHTF situations may result from it. For instance the power outage in India, could theoretically have been caused by some natural occurance and could theoretically result in something like a breakdown in the rule of law or economic collapse or famine. That being said here is how I would break it down to make sure your basis are covered...


I agree about the snowball effect. I deliberately left out the 2nd coming/ the prophecies in Revelations, but I disagree about the killer space object. My reasoning is this: While a large enough mass impacting the Earth will cause world-wide extinction, it is more likely, given geologic evidence of past impactions, that smaller objects will impact the Earth. At the high end of the destruction scale, I see a Nuclear Winter effect while at the lower end I see something on the scale of a Tunguska event (where a comet or meteor exploded in mid-air over a relatively uninhabited area in 1908.)

I did forget to include a Middle East crisis/war, and unintended results of a new government policy/treaties.

I do thank you for organizing the list.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

TEOTWAWKI

Low Risk Scenarios (1000 yr or greater event)(1 likelihood rating)
Super volcano
Axial Shift
Nuclear Winter

Medium Risk Scenarios (100-1000 yr event)(2)
Global cooling
Global warming
Asteroid/Comet strike
Civil War
Martial Law
Biological Attack
War in US

High Risk Scenarios (10-100 yr event)(3)
Major Earthquake
Chemical Attack
Nuclear Attack
Nuclear Meltdown
EMP
Economic Collapse
Civil Unrest
Biological/ Virologic Pandemic
Tsunami
Oil Embargo
Rule of Law
Mad scientist- Medical Science

Very High Risk (<10 yr event)(4)
Solar Flare
Terrorist attack
Computer Attack/Hack
Famine
Disruption of Electrical/ Water/ Sewer Services
Tornadoes
Hurricanes
Ice Storm
Wildfires
Unintended consequences of government policies/treaties
Middle East crisis/war
Coronal Mass Ejection
Flooding
Sabotage
Crop Failure/ Disease
Livestock Disease
Drought
Inept Government Regime
Post-event Necropolis
Mad Scientist- Agribusiness
Economic Attack

Unknown Risk (hasn't happened in the US yet)
Coup d'etat
Coup de main 
Alien Invasion
Celestial Virus/Plague
KEW Attack 
Zombies
Black Hole
Gamma Ray Burst
Destabilization of orbits of planetary bodies
Anarchy
Food/ Fuel Distribution Issues
Radiological Attack
WMD Attack
Fascist Government Regime/ Police State
Infrastructure Collapse
Nanotech Attack

I ranked the likelihood of an event occurring based on whether or not it had already happened in the US in recorded history. For some of the geologic events, I used the whole world as the landscape.

In rating the consequences of an event, I judge the effects on a national scale. Hence while a tornado may be devastating locally, it isn't likely to affect the US as a whole unless certain vital industries are hit. Therefore if you live in a hurricane, tornado, flood, earthquake, or wildfire-prone area, you may wish to adjust the consequences to fit your own individual case.

Consequences are rated from 1-5, 1 being insignificant, 2 being minor, 3 being moderate, 4 being major, and 5 being catastrophic.

The Risk Rating is the product of the likelihood and the consequence.

Unknown Risks

Coup d'etat- The closest the US has come to a real coup d'etat happened after the end of the Civil War when John Wilkes Booth and his co-conspirators attempted to decapitate the US government through assassination. The only likely scenario where I could see a coup d'etat happening is if something blatantly unconstitutional was being enacted and the military felt compelled to act to preserve the republic. Unless you're a member of the political class, I rate the consequence as a 1. Total risk rating = 0.

Coup de main- Pearl Harbor was the closest the US has come to one. While the likelihood on another attempt is low, the consequences are a 5 for a total risk rating of 5.

Alien Invasion- Despite Hollywood and the sci-fi community, there is no credible threat of this so the risk rating is 0.

Celestial Virus/ Plague- Again the risk rating is 0. (see Alien Invasion)

KEW Attack- The only likely attack of this nature is man-made and currently beyond our technology so the risk rating is 0.

Zombies- Again the risk rating is 0. (see Alien Invasion)

Black Hole- This is more of an TEOTW scenario though a very small black hole could pass through our neighborhood without destroying the Earth. There's nothing that can be done about it anyhow given our current technology.

Gamma Ray Burst- Again more of a TEOTW scenario.

Destabilization of the Orbits of Planetary Bodies- Again a TEOTW scenario.

Anarchy- Our political system is being deliberately destabilized from within and without so it's a bit hard to guessimate the likelihood. Anarchy won't arise overnight but probably as a result of some other event on this list. The consequence rating is liable to be a 5.

Food/ Fuel Distribution Issues- Again I see this as a result of some other event on this list with a consequence rating of 5.

Radiological Attack- Different from a Nuclear Attack in that radioactive materials are broadcast over a given area conventionally or through a fizzle yield nuclear weapon, the target areas are likely to be major US cities, critical industrial areas, or water sources. The irradiated areas are likely to be uninhabitable for years so the consequence rating is 5. This too is likely to be a result of another event on this list.

WMD Attack- Again I see this as more likely to be a consequence of another event on this list as I don't foresee a nuclear exchange between the nuclear powers as likely due to the devastating results. The consequence rating is 5. Counting the nuclear attacks on Japan in WW2, it results in a risk rating of 15.

Fascist Government Regime/ Police State- We are drifting towards such a state with the passage of certain laws like the Patriot Act and the institution of a nanny state. While I'd like to think it'd never happen here, the last 50 years make me think we're going to see it....probably as a result of political or economic turmoil. I give it a risk rating of 10 or 15 though you may read the situation differently.

Infrastructure Collapse- Again I see this more as a result of something else on this list with a consequence rating of 5.

Nanotech Attack- Not likely yet given our current technology, but it bears watching for future developments. Consequences could be anywhere between 1-5.

Low Risk Scenarios (1000 yr or greater event)(1 likelihood rating)

Super Volcano- None have been seen throughout recorded history (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) so the likelihood remains low. However the consequence rating is 5 for a total risk rating of 5.

Axial Shift- See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pole_shift_hypothesis for more information. Total risk rating is 5.

Nuclear Winter- One of the results of either a KEW Attack, a global nuclear exchange, a Super Volcano, or an Asteroid/ Comet Strike, it places a large amount of particulates in the air for a lengthy period of time causing solar energy to not to reach the Earth. Plant life dies, and the climate cools. Widespread starvation is guaranteed. This is one of things that is thought to have killed off the dinosaurs. Total risk rating is 5.

Medium Risk Scenarios (100-1000 yr event)(2)

Global cooling
Global warming- I'm combining these two since they're opposite sides of the same coin. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mini_ice_age for more information. It has happened before and caused Famine so the risk rating is 8. Please note that certain areas are more vulnerable to the effects so you may wish to modify the risk rating depending on your locale.

Asteroid/Comet strike- Tunguska in 1908. Depending on the size of the body, the consequence rating can be 1-5 for a total risk rating of 2-10.

Civil War- There seems to be a political disconnect today so the rating may need to be adjusted upward. The Balkanization of the US appears to be proceeding more and more rapidly with various groups placing unrealistic demands on the central government. Minimum risk rating is 10.

Martial Law- This is one event that could be upgraded to high risk depending on your point of view. I used the Civil War and its aftermath in judging the likelihood since it applied to large areas of the country. A person could validly argue the LA riots or Hurricane Katrina in establishing the likelihood though it was more localized in those instances. The risk rating is 8. On a more local level, one might get a risk rating of 10.

Biological Attack- I used the smallpox-infected blankets given to American Indians for a risk rating of 8. One can argue the Japanese experiments on the Chinese or the Nazi experiments in WW2 to get a risk rating of 9-12.

War in US- I used the War of 1812 and ignored Pancho Villa and the Japanese in the 20th century to get a risk rating of 8.

High Risk Scenarios (10-100 yr event)(3)

Major Earthquake Using California and Alaska as the examples, I figure the risk rating as somewhere between 9 and 12 for those in earthquake-prone areas.

Chemical Attack- Using WW1 as the example though better agents now exist, I get a risk rating of 9. If one considers industrial accidents, the rating might increase to 12 if you live or work near a chemical plant.

Nuclear Attack- I used the strikes on Japan in WW2 as the example. I got a risk rating of 12.

Nuclear Meltdown- I used the 3 Mile Island incident for a risk rating of 9. If you live near a nuclear plant, you may wish to adjust the risk rating upward.

EMP- I placed EMP here due to the atmospheric nuclear testing in the Pacific that affected parts of Hawaii. The risk rating of 6 is probably lower than the true risk since Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, Terrorist Attacks, and Nuclear War can cause EMPs. A more realistic risk rating is probably at least 12 and maybe even up to 20.

Economic Collapse- I used the Great Depression as the example to get a risk rating of 12. A collapse of the dollar would bump the risk rating up to at least 15.

Civil Unrest- I used the 1960s as the example to get a risk rating of 9. There are a number of events on this list that could cause this rating to be too low such as Martial Law, Economic Collapse, Pandemics, etc.

Biological/ Virologic Pandemic- The 1918 flu pandemic infected 27% and killed between 3 and 7% of the world's population. Given the number of Level 4 Pathogens discovered and the advent of jet travel, the risk rating is likely to need adjustment upward if you live in a major metropolitan area. Minimum risk rating is 12.

Tsunami- I will again point out that I used the US as the focal point of this risk rating. Therefore the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 is excluded, but the tsunamis that have hit Hawaii are not. The risk rating for the western US coastal areas is 9.

Oil Embargo- Since we have become more reliant on imported oil since the 1970s, the effects of any planned disruption in supplies will be magnified. I can see an embargo resulting from a Middle East War or the collapse of the dollar as a reserve currency. The risk rating is 12.

Rule of Law- This one depends on your perspective. One part of me says it means vigilante justice which is fairly rare. Another part says Eminent Domain abuses while still another part says judicial activism. I welcome your suggestions for rating this one.

Mad scientist- Medical Science- I give this one a risk rating of 9 due to changes in how drugs are brought to the marketplace through the FDA since the 1960s.

I'll finish the rest this weekend.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

The biggest threat by far is the collapse of the dollar. Every month the Fed creates billions of new dollars to lend to the government. Not just in the Treasuries that the Fed "buys". But also in the money that's lent to banks for almost nothing that allows them to buy Treasuries for a profit. We now have monthly deficits the size of what our annual deficits used to be. John Williams at shadowstats.com said recently that panic selling of the dollar could happen at any moment. I believe it will happen the next time QE is announced. TEOTWAWKI could be just a few months away.


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## PrepN4Good (Dec 23, 2011)

Marcus, honey...you have far too much time on your hands. :kiss:

(no offense intended, Marcus; you obviously put a huge amount of thought & effort into your post.)


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Marcus said:


> I agree about the snowball effect. I deliberately left out the 2nd coming/ the prophecies in Revelations, but I disagree about the killer space object. My reasoning is this: While a large enough mass impacting the Earth will cause world-wide extinction, it is more likely, given geologic evidence of past impactions, that smaller objects will impact the Earth...
> I do thank you for organizing the list.


No arguement there! I just wanted to make a distinction between a GLOBAL KILLER extinction level event (ELE) and an smaller asteroid. The comment was not directed at you but at a previous comment that included these The End Of THE World events (TEOW), which obviously it makes little sense to worry about or prepare for, except spiritually.


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## deetheivy (Aug 7, 2012)

magus love the elvis comment me being from memphis and all


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