# Likelyness of SHTF and when



## dirk42 (Mar 30, 2015)

I think this is on most of the preppers their mind, and for sure mine as well. What is the likelyness of SHTF and when do you expect it. Besides, what kind of severity do you expect?


----------



## jnrdesertrats (Jul 3, 2010)

I think most of us fully expect something to go wrong. Maybe not the end of the world, but as early as tommorow.


----------



## bigg777 (Mar 18, 2013)

This is only one man's opinion.

The S will HTF.

When? No idea. 

Why? See last answer.

How severe? Severity will vary greatly, depending on reason(s), geographic location, preparedness level, age, health and mind set.

The person that can answer your question fully is either the second coming of Christ or a false prophet. Beware those that profess special knowledge, especially about timing.

Your SHTF situation may be personal or more widely felt.

Preparing and building life skills is much like auto and medical insurance There is no way of telling when or where or why you will need the insurance but, odds are that sometime in the future, you will be glad you had the insurance.

Prepare yourself and invest in some insurance, it is the wise, prudent thing to do.


----------



## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

Depends on the person's definition of SHTF.

Wife. 2 hours without electricity after dark or when a hair dryer is wanted.

Me. No income, cash reserves gone and property taxes are due.


And for some the term SHTF is interchangeable with TEOTWAWKI. For me the terms are different.

Wife. 2 hours without electricity after dark or when a hair dryer is wanted is a TEOTWAWKI event.

For me, I'm down to my last cartridge and they are still coming.


----------



## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

the economy is in turmoil, oil prices dropping by half is good evidence of this, the longer the economy(S) are on life support the bigger the crash. we seem to be poised on the brink of world war 3. And we are going through some kind of climate cycle change. there are all kinds of localized SHTF that people may face


----------



## IlliniWarrior (Nov 30, 2010)

look in any direction you want and there's a pending SHTF - not a possible SHTF - one just waiting to topple .... I've never seen such a "perfect storm" in 35 years .... all it takes is one of the domino SHTFs to fall and the cascade starts .... once it starts it's not ending anytime soon - you better be ready for some self sustainability and not just a pile of preps ....


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

I would think everyone on this site thinks it is coming (or else why are they here?). No one can see the future so all anyone can do is guess at the future. I agree with IlliniWarrior in that things appear to be bad in many areas right now. My wild guess is next year bad stuff really starts happening.


----------



## ras1219como (Jan 15, 2013)

I prep for all kinds of things, because no one knows how or when the S will HTF. I prep for personal, regional, and global SHTF. My personal belief is that we will see a large scale event in my life time. Most likely within the next few years. Why? Because there is a perfect storm occurring in the world. Government problems, societal problems, shortage of certain resources, environmental problems...it's a balancing act and there's a whole bunch of stuff about to come toppling down. It's only a matter of time.


----------



## SwordsandSaddles (Mar 14, 2015)

I expect that it never will, and that it could at any second. I prep because experience and survival have taught be that one needs to. It is not a hobby for me, but equally, I am not prepping because I am afraid or have a sense of impending doom.


----------



## Genevieve (Sep 21, 2009)

dirk42 said:


> I think this is on most of the preppers their mind, and for sure mine as well. What is the likelyness of SHTF and when do you expect it. Besides, what kind of severity do you expect?


so whats YOUR answer to the question? since you live in Thailand( or at least you "say" you do) you have a different perspective on a number of things that we here in America don't.


----------



## Sentry18 (Aug 5, 2012)

1.7 seconds after the 2016 presidential election if Hillary wins.


----------



## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

Sentry18 said:


> 1.7 seconds after the 2016 presidential election if Hillary wins.


1.2 seconds after the 2016 presidential election and Obama wins a 3rd term.


----------



## bigg777 (Mar 18, 2013)

I'm not worried about Odipstick trying for a 3rd term, he's going to be too busy cashing in on his celebrity.


----------



## Balls004 (Feb 28, 2015)

I'm prepared because it's cool with you like minded folks. 

Every day, something hits the fan. Sometimes it's just a little, sometimes it's a lot. I'm just trying to be ready for the day that too much hits the fan and it shorts out. When that happens, I hope that there is a really good fan repairman handy, but if there isn't, we'll just have to make do until someone decides to take on fixing it.

I don't have a clue what, where, or when... but hey, it beats watching the crap on the 200 plus cable channels!


----------



## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

.
Watch the financial news VERY closely.

Other than "Natural Disasters", you can almost guarantee a financial meltdown is what will do us in. http://www.preparedsociety.com/foru...ce-default-within-two-weeks-27383/#post389293

.
.
What's even WORSE, is that a almost any major disaster will RESULT in a financial meltdown!

All the cards will come falling down at once.......


----------



## zombieresponder (Aug 20, 2012)

Really, it depends on how you define "SHTF". It occurs to many people at a personal level on a daily basis.

Most likely for the U.S. is another "recession" or a spiraling deflation. The fed has significantly inflated the dollar and at some point, the piper is going to demand payment. Exactly what the "piper" will be is anyone's guess at this point, but I suspect it's going to be the student loan bubble.


----------



## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

Every SHTF situation is a personal disaster. In my case illness has put me out of work on more than one occasion. Then you have local or regional disasters like your flood. This is when you need to have security (a euphemism for guns)in place. Next is national or global SHTF say, pandemic, war, or economic collapse. The more people in your area that are involved the worse it is. 

When? With weather related disasters you should have some warning. Things like war and disease you might be able to get out before it hits if you read the signs right and act soon enough. Economic collapse tends to just blow up. Yes, there are signs but they tend to be ignored until it is too late. It is not that we do not see these signs but that we have been seeing them for so long. Judging exact timing on critical mass is for economic problems is way above my skills.


----------



## HardCider (Dec 13, 2013)

Storm clouds are building, weather's moving in. It's going to be a bad blow. Like everyone above has said, it's not a matter of if but when and no man knows the day or the hour of that


----------



## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

zombieresponder said:


> Most likely for the U.S. is another "recession" or a spiraling deflation. The fed has significantly inflated the dollar and at some point, the piper is going to demand payment. Exactly what the "piper" will be is anyone's guess at this point, but I suspect it's going to be the student loan bubble.


I'll agree that the chances of another recession are growing. Given how long we've been in a 'recovery', it's about time.

But spiraling deflation? Nope.

The Fed (and most other central banks in the world) have been in a race to *devalue* their currencies in an effort to increase exports by *increasing* their money supplies. This is inflationary, not deflationary.

Inflation is when too much money is chasing too few goods/services. Deflation is when too many goods/ services are available for the available money.

Price increases in goods are inflationary and are the general trend for the last 100 years. The Fed has caused the buying power of the dollar to drop 96% or so since its inception.

Deflation has happened recently in the oil industry as prices have dropped roughly 50% since last summer. But that's more of a short-term supply/demand issue than real deflation.

The computer industry is the classic example of deflation in the last 30 years as prices have dropped and computing power has greatly multiplied. Would you buy an old TRS-80 computer for $4000 today? No. You can buy a much better computer for ~$500.

Deflation is beneficial to consumers since the cost of goods/services drops. Savers benefit since their dollars buy more than in the past.

Inflation on the other hand erodes savings and causes goods to cost more. That's why people buy PMs. PMs preserve or store wealth better than most other investment classes.

We're much more likely to see inflation or even hyperinflation than deflation.


----------



## LastOutlaw (Jun 1, 2013)

I think it started a long time ago.
We are on a long slow slide into poverty as the PTB gobble up the last remaining scraps of financial wealth by utilizing QE and stock market manipulation until it gets too steep and the slide turns into a free-fall. 

Many other countries are already preparing for it as they set up ulterior methods of trade and finances other than the dollar. 

Purchases of PMs are up on a worldwide basis. The middle class is disappearing quickly. Things seem to be speeding up. The market gets more and more volatile. All signs of the coming "free-fall".


----------



## Balls004 (Feb 28, 2015)

LastOutlaw said:


> I think it started a long time ago.
> We are on a long slow slide into poverty as the PTB gobble up the last remaining scraps of financial wealth by utilizing QE and stock market manipulation until it gets too steep and the slide turns into a free-fall.
> 
> Many other countries are already preparing for it as they set up ulterior methods of trade and finances other than the dollar.
> ...


Yeah, there seems to be a run on the PM lead and copper too. I'm really glad that those have been more valuable to me than some of the other metals.


----------



## Genevieve (Sep 21, 2009)

Balls004 said:


> Yeah, there seems to be a run on the PM lead and copper too. I'm really glad that those have been more valuable to me than some of the other metals.


I remember reading how the chicoms were buying gold, silver, copper, lead and other metals by the *millions of TONS* last year. If I can remember where I read it I'll post it but it was last year some time.
Russia was and is I believe doing the same while we sit here and play tiddly-winks and watch "reality" tv


----------



## Starcreek (Feb 4, 2015)

September.


----------



## camo2460 (Feb 10, 2013)

I don't worry when or if the shtf. If it does there's nothing I can do about it. all I can do is maintain a clear and calm mind, and avoid letting fear over come me. A shtf event won't kill you, but a mind over come with fear will. Maintain readiness and keep calm and likely you will survive.


----------



## Zeev_Zwaard (Jan 27, 2010)

Homeland “Security” thinks it’s coming. Because they are brighter than the rest of us? No. Because they are evil. So they know what’s in store for us and that we won’t go along with it without kicking them in the teeth. 
They are stocking up on ammo and practicing massive citizens arrests in conjunction with the armed forced. 
Look at what your enemies are doing. It will tell you a lot about what YOU should be doing.
They are not playing games.
They are getting ready for their version of the Fourth Reich and they mean EVERY bit of it.
When? Before our children have had a chance to die of old age.
Don’t think for a moment that you have enough time to goof around.
That’s a sigh, the blink of an eye, in the scheme of things.


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Ask the people in Venezuela when the S will HTF.


----------



## fteter (May 23, 2014)

Let's talk about SHTF from a few perspectives: a personal SHTF, sociological SHTF, and natural disaster SHTF.

Personal SHTF can happen at any time. Loss of job, accident or illness (either yourself or your family)...I'm sure you can add to the list. In all honesty, this is the biggest reason I prepare. I've had SHTF on a personal level, both when I was unprepared and when I was prepared. Trust me when I say prepared is much, much better.

Sociological SHTF seems to have been, throughout history, more of a process than a singular event. Like many of us here, I think this has been going on for some time. It's mostly subtle on a daily basis, but stacks up to an unraveling of society over time. Although I don't think this will happen in the US tomorrow, we're there in many parts of the world already. I think folks in Argentina or Venezuela would tell you that you can't prep too early...the longer you wait, the more difficult higher prices and scarcity of resources make it to prep.

Natural disasters could also happen anytime. Earthquakes, floods, drought...you name it, we've all got some threat regardless of where we live. You'll sleep better if you've done what you can to prepare.

So, after all this rambling...the real question to me is not when can SHTF happen, but when should you prepare? The correct answer is now, if not sooner.


----------

