# What is the Trigger?



## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

What is the Trigger? What do you thing the trigger is that will start our preparedness opportunities? 

Is it Israel attacking Iran? Iran attacking Israel? Fed’s printing money? Oil price's? Obama’s re-election? Food Cost soaring? Drought? Derivatives? Bitcoin’s? What do you think?


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

RevWC said:


> What is the Trigger? What do you thing the trigger is that will start our preparedness opportunities?
> 
> Fed's printing money? Oil price's? Food Cost soaring? Drought? Derivatives? What do you think?


All of the above. Look around. It's already started only there hasn't been an official declaration. No "event" to say; "This is it!" Just a painfully slow degradation of everything.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

In some rough order of likelihood:

Dollar collapse (currency failure/hyperinflation)
War that messes up our oil supply
Food shortages (most likely weather related)

But for the long term, energy supplies will be the bugaboo. Not the availability of energy, but the cost in terms of our earning ability. And that really puts the hurt on our ability to produce food for the masses. 

And yes, like UncleJoe said, it has already started.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

It couldn't have started yet...people are still watching "Dancing With the Stars"!


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## Davarm (Oct 22, 2011)

IMO, the trigger will likely be Israel attacking Iran and then Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz and all the retaliation related crap that goes along with it.

That will start the "ball of poop" rolling down hill and it will pick up turds and get bigger and faster as it goes.

The "drought/crop failure" will just be icing on the cake(again IMO).

If we(Society) make it past the Israel/Iran situation without it all starting, the dollar collapse will likely be it.


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## BillM (Dec 29, 2010)

The day the banks close !


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## d_saum (Jan 17, 2012)

BillM said:


> The day the banks close !


SUNDAY?????? OH CRAP! Oh well.. drink up folks! :cheers:


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## Turtle (Dec 10, 2009)

d_saum said:


> SUNDAY?????? OH CRAP! Oh well.. drink up folks! :cheers:


Mental note: buy more ammo this weekend.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

It's not one trigger, it's several triggers.

The first trigger was the bill that President Clinton signed that allowed brokerage house and banks to join again. It was made illegal after the Great Depression because it lead to the Great Depression.

The second trigger was rep Barney's bill to allow banks to write mortgages to people that did not have the ability to make the payments.

The third trigger was large banks that packaged all the bad mortgage loans in to investment packages and selling those to banks around the world including Europe.

The fourth trigger was Obama's election in 2008.

The fifth trigger will be the Israeli-Iranian war that will further increase our debt.

The sixth trigger will be Obama's reelection this year. This will cause a run on wall street and gold to go through the roof and then the collapse of the dollar.

Have a nice day!:flower:


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

QE3 is one of the last triggers IMHO...

With our debt, in the crisis it's in, adding another $40 billion a month "for as long as it takes" makes things seem a little closer to falling off the edge....

Don't be surprised though if we linger on for quite a while.

JMWAG

Jimmy


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## Nadja (Jan 12, 2011)

If the trigger is to be the economy , I don't think it will be any single event. I think that will be a slow and very painful process. However, if we get into a fray with Iran, our economy already being in the tank, thats when I think if would happen faster. 

We say next week get into a fray with Iran, the economy sinks even faster , the fishing is declared illegal on the west coast due to excessive radiation, Of course as a result of the mess overseas, oil and gas lines start again, hmmm, me thinks that would tip the iceberg over.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

It's either the collapse of the dollar or a bank holiday. They're related but I don't know which one comes first.

With the announcement of QE3 the dollar is now in pre-avalanche mode. Meaning all we need is something to trigger it and we'll see the dollar collapse. Prices will go up from 10x to 100x in a very short time. We could wake up one morning to find out that China has dumped the dollar and gas is now $58 a gallon.

Bank holiday. The banks are closed. Credit cards, debit cards, and food stamp cards don't work. Riots everywhere. Martial law declared. Banks reopen after the dollar has been devalued by 40%.

I don't see a slow collapse. I see an instant collapse. Meaning anywhere from one day to one week. I think it happens between now and election day. Prepare accordingly.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

I think the snow ball has already started rolling down the mountain... 

I also agree that a trigger event that would cause instant triggering would be: Iran/Israel conflict esculating, a terrorist attack on US soil, successful cyber attacks on all major US banks - not only DoS, but breeching security.

A slow sign of the trigger occurring: When we see the stock market start to slide 100+ points a day for 5-6 straight days, while gold starts flying up 50-100+ per day during the same time... and of course major layoffs worse than in 2008 happening at the same time - Gas climbing over $6 per gallon and rising to $10.


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## pandamonium (Feb 6, 2011)

BillS said:


> I don't see a slow collapse. I see an instant collapse. Meaning anywhere from one day to one week. I think it happens between now and election day. Prepare accordingly.


I agree, we have been in the steady decline mode for years. Now we are teetering on the edge. I think the most likely "trigger" of collapse will be opec going with another counties currency for oil purchases. The dollar has be severly devalued already. If the US dollar is no longer the world currency, that, I think will push us right off the cliff.


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## Startingout-Blair (Aug 28, 2012)

That definitely would! The only reason the Govt can continue printing money is because other countries use it as the global currency. Once that ends, we are total toast!


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## biobacon (Aug 20, 2012)

What do you mean "our preparedness opportunities"? Arnt opportunities suposed to be good things? Just messing with you. Personly Im agreeing with you thats its already started. As long as the latest mid east war dosent go NBC and China continues to be tied to our economy I still think we have 5-20 years. I know none of you guys agree with me on that but I base it on an overall level of our economy and other nations linkege to us. Bill S I sure hope your wrong, if it happens in october then good luck with your survival cause a lot of us will be dead.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

It's hard for me to believe it will happen virtually overnight instead of a slower degradation OR before the election but your guess is as good as mine!


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## Dawgbone (Sep 18, 2012)

Bacon shortage


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## pandamonium (Feb 6, 2011)

db2469 said:


> It's hard for me to believe it will happen virtually overnight instead of a slower degradation OR before the election but your guess is as good as mine!


I could see it happening nearly overnight.

Imagine: the US dollar is declared to no longer be the world currency. The stock market would plummet, people losing EVERYTHING! Bank runs...banks close. No cash, other than what you have in your pocket or in the cookie jar, debit cards and credit cards are useless, as are the welfare cards. People gotta eat, mobs at the stores, smash and grab happening at every store that has any kind of food. Riots in the city streets. NO ONE is getting paid, cops are home with their families, same for lots of military folks. It is a free for all with no help for the masses. I think this could happen VERY fast. One week and it is full fledged SHTF.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

pandamonium said:


> I could see it happening nearly overnight.
> 
> Imagine: the US dollar is declared to no longer be the world currency. The stock market would plummet, people losing EVERYTHING! Bank runs...banks close. No cash, other than what you have in your pocket or in the cookie jar, debit cards and credit cards are useless, as are the welfare cards. People gotta eat, mobs at the stores, smash and grab happening at every store that has any kind of food. Riots in the city streets. NO ONE is getting paid, cops are home with their families, same for lots of military folks. It is a free for all with no help for the masses. I think this could happen VERY fast. One week and it is full fledged SHTF.


Yes, if/when the currency takes that hit, but that might be awhile...or it's just wishful thinking on my part, it's still such a difficult thing to wrap my mind around!


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## DJgang (Apr 10, 2011)

db2469 said:


> It couldn't have started yet...people are still watching "Dancing With the Stars"!


:rofl:

People will remain bellied up to a bar as :shtf2:

Haven't ya seen the new show Revolution? :2thumb:

I imagine some folks won't pay attention until they can't afford the cable or power bill. They'll be OK on ramen noodles, but once that tube goes off. vract:


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## Theriot (Aug 17, 2012)

Once the goverment won't be able to keep the schools open and feed the kids, is when people will notice. When they can't go to work because they have to stay home with their spoiled brats. A couple of day with their own kids they will fall apart. Look at Chicago, just a couple of days went by and parents were begging for the city to give the teachers what ever they wanted to take their kids from them.


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## emilnon (May 8, 2012)

If/when gas prices suddenly shoot sky high... I think that's all it'll take to create a SHTF situation. How long the situation lasts depends on why prices rocket up & how fast things get out of control. Hopefully not for long. Always hope for the best but plan for the worst!


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## DJgang (Apr 10, 2011)

Theriot said:


> Once the goverment won't be able to keep the schools open and feed the kids, is when people will notice. When they can't go to work because they have to stay home with their spoiled brats. A couple of day with their own kids they will fall apart. Look at Chicago, just a couple of days went by and parents were begging for the city to give the teachers what ever they wanted to take their kids from them.


I haven't thought about that. Good point. Years ago, just getting out of high school myself I predicted that schools will become obsolete. My thoughts were more of social reasons as well as doctrine being infiltrated through schools. But I could see this happening as well, for many reasons.



emilnon said:


> If/when gas prices suddenly shoot sky high... I think that's all it'll take to create a SHTF situation. How long the situation lasts depends on why prices rocket up & how fast things get out of control. Hopefully not for long. Always hope for the best but plan for the worst!


Back when the gas went up over 4 dollars a gallon, we still had our business. We had to charge minimum service calls. People were pissed! I had one lady pitch a fit on me, then I started breaking down the cost for me, I went through it all right down to insurance and then she shut up. We will start seeing folks staying home more. I already do this. I took the kids out of school and I'm already saving 200.00 a month in fuel! We live 20 minutes from anything!

I predict more folks starting to live together, especially immediate families. Hopefully more people learning food storage.

But I still see so many spending money on frivolous things, like a pumpkin decoration for the front door.... So I wonder, is everything OK or are people just not paying attention or... I don't know.


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## emilnon (May 8, 2012)

We are careful about what we spend too. Prices already have gone up a lot, but I meant a steep spike. Like a jump to $50/gal. If, say, the Straight of Hormuz gets blocked, or WWIII. 
More drastic is where my mind was


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

db2469 said:


> It's hard for me to believe it will happen virtually overnight instead of a slower degradation OR before the election but your guess is as good as mine!


I think there will be numerous subtle warnings that something will happen and then some moron at a high level of knowledge in the gov will say something stupid and then it will be a waterfall event, overnight collapse.

A while back, a mayor of Omaha Nebraska made a random comment at a news briefing that people in the town should not let their car get below a halve of tank of fuel because there was a fuel pipe line problem. Because of this everyone went out and filled up and the whole city was out of fuel till the next week. It only took 1 moron to say the wrong thing.


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## urbanprepper (May 15, 2012)

Dawgbone said:


> Bacon shortage


This.

I actually think this is one of a series of events that will lead to SHTF. Pork prices are low, but the cost of feed will make prices sky rocket in the next year. Some people (I doubt anyone one here) don't seem to see that this is only 1 part of a large problem. Cost to transport said feed, cost to run machines to harvest, cost to water etc etc, comes back to oil. Which in terms is tied directly into our currency and almost every single one of our daily processes.

So yes, bacon shortage will suck, but it's just a snowflake in the snowball rolling down the mountain.

ps. I've already learned how to make my own bacon!


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

urbanprepper said:


> This.
> 
> ps. I've already learned how to make my own bacon!


Please share this cure as Florida has a lot of wild boar.

Thanks


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

I'm still saying it will be a black swan event... something so far out of left field, and those that are left will say, "we should have seen that coming".

Economy is too obvious, and as long as the fed keeps printing, we're like frogs in the pot.


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## urbanprepper (May 15, 2012)

RevWC said:


> Please share this cure as Florida has a lot of wild boar.
> 
> Thanks


I can just PM you, as everyone may not want to know. And it doesn't follow the topic


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

urbanprepper said:


> I can just PM you, as everyone may not want to know. And it doesn't follow the topic


 Start a new thread in the general food forum or the recipe forum.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

emilnon said:


> Like a jump to $50/gal. If, say, the Straight of Hormuz gets blocked, or WWIII.


or if it even available at all... at any price.....


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