# Spot market prices



## BillM

The spot market price on silver hit $41.00 per troy oz today.

I have'nt sold yet , it will go higher !


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## Immolatus

$42.18. Unbelievable.


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## IrritatedWithUS

$43.12 at closing today.
A few new negative economic reports came out late today on the news. I'll expect silver to jump at least $0.65 by Monday afternoon. 

Hold on to your silver! JP Morgan's short selling on silver is about to HTF. 11 banks in 2011 have failed already this year. I'm holding onto mine for a bit.


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## geoffreys7

I called my brother at work today and rubbed it in, he almost sold some last month at $32.00 and I told him to hold on or I'd buy it. Thankfully he's holding it but it was good I could rub it in he'd almost sold it if it wasn't for me. :2thumb:


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## BillM

*The Silver Spot*

The Silver Spot market closed today at 43.00 per oz.


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## The_Blob

BillM said:


> The Silver Spot market closed today at 43.00 per oz.


OMG! it's crashing! SELL SELL SELL! 

jk folks


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## Immolatus

I am still buying, even at these levels. I dont have a ton of money right now, Im working on my credit card debt, but bought 6 z today at $44.75 each. And to think, my first 100 z buy was at $11.50 spot, paid $12.50.

I am a tad weary of a crash in this insane run up, but I am going to continue to buy as long as the Fed continues to print money. Which I guess will be forever? I have seen too many boom/busts to listen to any argument against a possible massive sell off, no matter how doubtful that may be.
If there is a crash in silver, I will continue to buy, and I guess we would all be better off anyway, cause the only way I can see a crash coming, other than a pure bubble burst (ceteris paribus), is a strengthening in the dollar/economy. Which also seems pretty doubtful.
If only I could get my father and my girl to listen to me. My dad thinks Ive lost it, with all of my wild theories about the gumt, and my girl knows Ive lost it. I need to stop watching alternative news, and stick to MSNBC. 
Then everything will be all better.


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## 778008

Immolatus said:


> I am still buying, even at these levels. I dont have a ton of money right now, Im working on my credit card debt, but bought 6 z today at $44.75 each. And to think, my first 100 z buy was at $11.50 spot, paid $12.50.
> 
> I am a tad weary of a crash in this insane run up, but I am going to continue to buy as long as the Fed continues to print money. Which I guess will be forever? I have seen too many boom/busts to listen to any argument against a possible massive sell off, no matter how doubtful that may be.
> If there is a crash in silver, I will continue to buy, and I guess we would all be better off anyway, cause the only way I can see a crash coming, other than a pure bubble burst (ceteris paribus), is a strengthening in the dollar/economy. Which also seems pretty doubtful.
> If only I could get my father and my girl to listen to me. My dad thinks Ive lost it, with all of my wild theories about the gumt, and my girl knows Ive lost it. I need to stop watching alternative news, and stick to MSNBC.
> Then everything will be all better.


I know what you are saying about the price. The USMint silver proof sets are 67.95 and have a value (using silver's current price) and the monetary value of the non silver coins almost is the going price. So I think a good deal since they are a better quality of silver and if prices decrease will still have the intrinsic value they hold, if prices on silver continue to go up-silver investment. Just another idea. Probably the mint will put up the price soon if silver continues to go up, maybe even at these prices.


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## IrritatedWithUS

Silver is at $43.21 right now as of 11:07am Pacific


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## Immolatus

*Good interview with Jim Rogers*

Here.
Jim Rogers Silver will get triple digits this year


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## TrackerRat

I just bought another 60 ounces


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## IrritatedWithUS

Silver closed at $45.66 today. I bought some more yesterday at $49.00 just out of convenience. I happened to walk past a coin shop and low-n-behold 2011 silver eagles everywhere!


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## BillM

*Up to*

Silver went up to over $46.00 per oz last night ! Still riseing!


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## Immolatus

Its down $2 to $44.90 after hitting $49 yesterday. Thats a huge 10% swing in less than 24 hours. I cant help wondering if this is a beginning of a correction, or it getting so close to $50 that people just felt they had to sell.
Then again, maybe is just a temporary hiccup, and I should be hustlin to the store to get me some more...


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## BillM

*Correction*



Immolatus said:


> Its down $2 to $44.90 after hitting $49 yesterday. Thats a huge 10% swing in less than 24 hours. I cant help wondering if this is a beginning of a correction, or it getting so close to $50 that people just felt they had to sell.
> Then again, maybe is just a temporary hiccup, and I should be hustlin to the store to get me some more...


Silver dropped dramaticly yesterday.

The Chinese bought a bunch and this was the likely cause of the drop .

Right now silver is an excellent investment @ $ 45.12 spot

I look for a pop to $50.00 in the next few days.

It is a good time to buy physical metal also. :beercheer:


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## Immolatus

I should be buyin more this weekend, lets hope it dont go to $50 before then...

Kinda funny how its a good deal at $45 (and I agree) when a few months ago it was under $30. What was it then?

An "OMGGTFO u gotta git sum" screaming buy?


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## IrritatedWithUS

I'm kinda shaking in my boots.
I've read all negative reports regarding silver and how the bull has become a bear, etc...etc...
Reports are saying silver has dropped due to oil prices dropping and the fact that there is no word yet on the state of the dollar besides that it is down 2.5%. And there is word of corrections. My friend who has been a long-time silver investor told me last month to sell @ 35.00 an ounce. I didn't listen.

I think this is a test. I don't see oil getting cheaper and I do believe the price will go up again. There is almost no doubt about it. Part of me wants to sell my silver and switch it to something a little bit more stable like gold. However, I believe I'm just going to observe this week and see what happens. Right now, silver is down to $45.12...


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## Immolatus

Reason for drop today
This apparently scared people away, and made silver (contracts) more costly.
Kinda scary in a way, that a company can change some rules around and lose me that much money in a few hours.
Kinda heartening in a way, if I can make up to the store to buy more...


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## CulexPipiens

Your link takes me to a "subscribe" page for Barrons magazine. Can you post the content? or at least the jist of it?

I've been dabbling in PMs now and am trying to decide to buy more now that it has come down a bit or wait a few more days to see if it drops further. A lot of the talk is of a silver bubble however with the dollar I'm not so sure if it is a bubble or just a realization of where the dollar is going coupled with fluctuations on various news tidbits.


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## ra5451

IrritatedWithUS said:


> I'm kinda shaking in my boots.
> I've read all negative reports regarding silver and how the bull has become a bear, etc...etc...
> Reports are saying silver has dropped due to oil prices dropping and the fact that there is no word yet on the state of the dollar besides that it is down 2.5%. And there is word of corrections. My friend who has been a long-time silver investor told me last month to sell @ 35.00 an ounce. I didn't listen.
> 
> I think this is a test. I don't see oil getting cheaper and I do believe the price will go up again. There is almost no doubt about it. Part of me wants to sell my silver and switch it to something a little bit more stable like gold. However, I believe I'm just going to observe this week and see what happens. Right now, silver is down to $45.12...


Hi Irritated....I have some morgans that I picked up...(about $3500) I'm curious regarding the volume of silver your talking about...I'm trying to gage where I should be targeting.


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## Immolatus

Try this

I am not going to pretend to completely understand the futures markets.

The Merc changed the rules on buying silver futures if you are buying them on margin.
If you are borrowing the money ('margin') to buy a contract to buy silver in the future (a 'future'), you have to pay more money up front. You do not have to buy the futures with money, you can borrow it, assuming you are going to make money on the contract, or as a hedge. If you borrow the money, you have to put up a higher percentage of the money up front (11% now as opposed to the 6% it was before the rule was changed) which makes it more expensive, which cuts down on the entire market for them, so there is less demand.
Ugh, I'm sure someone will correct me.

The gist is, silver is more expensive to big time investors and hedgers, so there is less buying, so the price is falling due to lower demand.
"The purpose of increasing margins would be to keep both long and short investors from adding to positions in what has become an increasingly volatile market. "

Closed at $41.12.


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## danerogers

Please be careful with your PM positions. No market goes up forever despite the "reasoning" that says it must. Five or so years ago, people were diving into real estate because they "knew" it could only go up. They were wrong and in spite of all the money previously thrown at real estate, the market has DE-flated substantially. I know many of you expect run away inflation because of government spending. You are told the government is "printing" money but instead, it is borrowing money. Borrowed money must be paid back unlike when South American dictators literally printed money to run their governments. As mortgages have defaulted, vast amounts of money have disappeared and for a while, we experienced deflation as stoks and real estate collapsed - both oil and PM's fell during that time. Since March 2009, we have experienced a period of "re-flation" as markets bottomed and accelerated higher. No one has a crystal ball and I've made plenty of mistakes, but both stock and commodity markets are showing signs that they have peaked or will soon peak. In 2000 tech stocks peaked and fell hard. In 2007, real estate peaked and fell hard. Now, both stocks and commodities are dangerously inflated with almost everyone expecting higher prices. That also means almost everyone willing to enter the market, has already bought and there are few new buyers coming to the party. Hedge funds have been buyers because they saw profit potential, not because of a political belief. When they see their speculative positions declining, they will attempt to sell in mass. 

These are very dangerous market conditions. You may hold a political belief that we face doom because of run away government spending causing inflation, but don't let that belief blind you to market danger. Keep your finger on the trigger. My expectations are upside down, meaning sever deflation ahead. I know, you will likely think I am the nut case but remember that you saw it with tech stocks and real estate and owners of those items could not believe they would go down. Don't stay in a sinking boat once your ankles start getting wet.


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## danerogers

Immolatus got it pretty well. But also try this. Think of the margin requirement as the down payment on a mortgage. The "bank" was requiring 6% down, to let you borrow 94% of the price of your silver contract. This works fine in a rising market and the leverage multiplies your money much faster. However, when the bank thinks there is a risk of price decline, it raises the required down payment, in this case, to 11%. It has the same effect as in the housing market - fewer buyers can qualify to buy, and fewer buyers usually mean lower prices. Then the margin or "down payment" requirement is raised again and prices spiral down just like they spiraled up in the first place. Dangerous markets! Not driven by real inflation expectations but by speculation. Interest rates on long term Treasury bonds have been falling, indicating that bond buyers see no risk of inflation.


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## slick

As they say you have to diversify your portfolio thats for sure, I say buying silver and gold are like gambling at the casino only take what you can afford to lose bottom line.. The thing is I hold more confidence in my PM then I do my dam 401k government could say one day say to bad so sad your 401k is gone and guess what it aint never coming back at least with gold and silver it may drop because the government manipulation but at least it still real and will be worth some thing.. All I can say is crazy times and guess what food and water can be priceless as well.. Cya Slick


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## Immolatus

danerogers said:


> But also try this. Think of the margin requirement as the down payment on a mortgage. The "bank" was requiring 6% down, to let you borrow 94% of the price of your silver contract. This works fine in a rising market and the leverage multiplies your money much faster. However, when the bank thinks there is a risk of price decline, it raises the required down payment, in this case, to 11%. It has the same effect as in the housing market - fewer buyers can qualify to buy, and fewer buyers usually mean lower prices. Then the margin or "down payment" requirement is raised again and prices spiral down just like they spiraled up in the first place. Dangerous markets! Not driven by real inflation expectations but by speculation. Interest rates on long term Treasury bonds have been falling, indicating that bond buyers see no risk of inflation.


That is a perfect analogy.

As for us not printing money, I see the fed creating t bills with nothing backing them except the "full faith and credit of the US" as just that. Faith. If people stop believing in it, it ceases to be true.
Printing t bills and printing money are essentially the same thing. Pulling money from an outside source (China, etc) into the system is the same thing, and will have the same effect as actually printing it.
Silver is crashing/correcting hard right now.


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## Clarice

I would be leary of having my silver or gold on paper. I had rather have the shiny stuff in my hand.


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## danerogers

slick said:


> As they say you have to diversify your portfolio thats for sure, I say buying silver and gold are like gambling at the casino only take what you can afford to lose bottom line.. The thing is I hold more confidence in my PM then I do my dam 401k government could say one day say to bad so sad your 401k is gone and guess what it aint never coming back at least with gold and silver it may drop because the government manipulation but at least it still real and will be worth some thing.. All I can say is crazy times and guess what food and water can be priceless as well.. Cya Slick


Slick, you are accurate that buying gold and sliver is like gambling, and so are most "investments" in stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc. Your bottom line is the key - only invest what you can afford to lose. I would add, be out of debt first. The last thing you want is to be scrambling for cash to pay a debt after losing an income.

Don't worry about the government taking your 401k or your PM, the markets will do that quite nicely all by themselves. Most markets, except the U.S. dollar, have been rising almost in lockstep since they bottomed in late 2008 or early 2009. As they peak and begin to fall again, (could have started this week) deflation will rear it's head across the board and the value of the dollar will rise. (I know, you think I'm :nuts You do not want to be in debt when the value of the dollar rises and becomes harder to get to service those debts. Only the oldest among us recall the days of deflation during the Depression. The inflation of the 1970's and early 1980's had it's difficulties, but the truly hard times came from the deflation era of the 1930's. That is much more to be feared than inflation.

And as the prepared know, "food and water can be priceless". Whether that occurs due to infrastructure breakdown, or, more likely, because there is no money to purchase those items as during the hard times of the 1930's. Either way, we must know how to take care of ourselves and our immediate community if possible.

I just noticed that silver today has dropped to just below $40. That would be an almost 20% decline from the euphoric peak of last Friday in only 3 days. So is it really a store of value?? Stocks and oil declining too. It is dangerous out there!


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## danerogers

Immolatus said:
As for us not printing money, I see the fed creating t bills with nothing backing them except the "full faith and credit of the US"

*That is true, our system "borrows money into existence" in a complex book keeping akin to slight-of-hand. *

Then Immolatus said:
Printing t bills and printing money are essentially the same thing. Pulling money from an outside source (China, etc) into the system is the same thing, and will have the same effect as actually printing it.

*Not exactly. Credit is different that printing. If the Treasury issues a 90-day T-bill (out of thin air!) and I buy it for say, $1000, then they have my $1000 and I have a piece of paper saying I have something worth $1000. By magic, my $1000 has become $2000 in the money supply - i.e., the money supply has "inflated". (similar thing happens when a citizen takes on a mortgage) In 90 days, the Treasury pays me back my $1000 (and tiny amount of interest) so I have my $1000 and the Treasury no longer has the $1000. The money supply goes back to the original level - i.e. inflation removed. If instead, the Treasury had physically "printed" $1000 out of thin air, I would have my $1000 and they would have a new $1000 and the money supply would have inflated. But this time, the new bills do not go away so the purchasing power of my $1000 has been diluted by inflation. This is a critical difference that has been presented to the public dishonestly for political purposes and in the end, will cause great harm. True inflation robs people of the purchasing power of their savings and that makes them angry. Telling people they should be angry about non-existent monetary inflation (different from grocery store and gas station inflation) is purely political manipulation.*


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## slick

danerogers said:


> Slick, you are accurate that buying gold and sliver is like gambling, and so are most "investments" in stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, etc. Your bottom line is the key - only invest what you can afford to lose. I would add, be out of debt first. The last thing you want is to be scrambling for cash to pay a debt after losing an income.
> 
> Don't worry about the government taking your 401k or your PM, the markets will do that quite nicely all by themselves. Most markets, except the U.S. dollar, have been rising almost in lockstep since they bottomed in late 2008 or early 2009. As they peak and begin to fall again, (could have started this week) deflation will rear it's head across the board and the value of the dollar will rise. (I know, you think I'm :nuts You do not want to be in debt when the value of the dollar rises and becomes harder to get to service those debts. Only the oldest among us recall the days of deflation during the Depression. The inflation of the 1970's and early 1980's had it's difficulties, but the truly hard times came from the deflation era of the 1930's. That is much more to be feared than inflation.
> 
> And as the prepared know, "food and water can be priceless". Whether that occurs due to infrastructure breakdown, or, more likely, because there is no money to purchase those items as during the hard times of the 1930's. Either way, we must know how to take care of ourselves and our immediate community if possible.
> 
> I just noticed that silver today has dropped to just below $40. That would be an almost 20% decline from the euphoric peak of last Friday in only 3 days. So is it really a store of value?? Stocks and oil declining too. It is dangerous out there!


Yeah I agree being out of debt is the way to go, I have been following dave ramsey for some time now only debt I have is my home and I am trying to sell it now to buy my retirement home.. Its pretty tuff to do in this day and age LOL as long as they keep intrest rates low I have a chance.. As for my PM I am not worried what the market does to those because the only reason for there current fall in price is minipulation from the powers that be, I am buying for the long run.. Slick


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## Immolatus

I think the key difference is that if you buy the tbill, the money has come from within the system. If the Chinese bring it out from the 'vault' it would have the same effect as releasing all of the gold (supposedly?) stored in Fort Knox. It would be instantly devalued, because its 'out of the loop'.
Hmm. :scratch
What if EVERYONE turned in all of their loose change all at once?
If the Russians released all of their diamonds?
While this would not produce a rise in prices (inflation) on goods produced locally using exclusively local resources, it would cause the instrument (dollar, gold, diamonds) to lose value and in the case of the dollar, devaluation.
None of this is taking the interest into account (2010=$414B), which soon enough will equal the gumts annual revenue (2010=$2.1T) when we will have to borrow money just to pay interest on money weve already borrowed. Yuck. More than half of the money we spend is borrowed. 20% of the money we bring in is owed just to finance our debt.


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## danerogers

slick said:


> ...As for my PM I am not worried what the market does to those because the only reason for there current fall in price is minipulation from the powers that be, I am buying for the long run.. Slick


At the moment, silver down another 8% already this morning to $36.18. The bubble has burst. Commodity markets become very emotional during "blow off" rises and "crashing" declines. On the upside, traders panic that they are not IN a rapidly rising market for fear they will miss out on the easy profits. So they buy with the rest of the herd. Once cracks are seen, especially when much has been purchased on margin, leveraging the losses during a decline, the run for the door is dramatic. That is what we are seeing this week. Not just silver but other commodities as well. Silver's decline is already of historic proportions for it's depth and rate. There will likely be sharp counter trend rallies. They will be opportunities to sell.


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## slick

danerogers said:


> At the moment, silver down another 8% already this morning to $36.18. The bubble has burst. Commodity markets become very emotional during "blow off" rises and "crashing" declines. On the upside, traders panic that they are not IN a rapidly rising market for fear they will miss out on the easy profits. So they buy with the rest of the herd. Once cracks are seen, especially when much has been purchased on margin, leveraging the losses during a decline, the run for the door is dramatic. That is what we are seeing this week. Not just silver but other commodities as well. Silver's decline is already of historic proportions for it's depth and rate. There will likely be sharp counter trend rallies. They will be opportunities to sell.


Yeah there running for the door alright, other then the up margins done by the CME, I guess George soros sold off a ton of silver as well.. But take note there is not allot of physical silver to be had on the market right now uhmmm LOL at least compared to the past that is, the few places I buy from is eighter delayed or just plain out of stock in any case I am not selling keeping for the long haul and I think if people dont get scared they should be buying right now.. Cya Slick


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## CulexPipiens

slick said:


> ... I am not selling keeping for the long haul and I think if people dont get scared they should be buying right now.. Cya Slick


I'm agreeing with this sentiment. Any PM investments I make are either for SHTF or will go the kids/grandkids when I pass. If things don't collapse I hope it will be a nice inheritance for them. The more the price is dropping the more of a buying opportunity it becomes.


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## BillM

*Raising the Margin*



danerogers said:


> At the moment, silver down another 8% already this morning to $36.18. The bubble has burst. Commodity markets become very emotional during "blow off" rises and "crashing" declines. On the upside, traders panic that they are not IN a rapidly rising market for fear they will miss out on the easy profits. So they buy with the rest of the herd. Once cracks are seen, especially when much has been purchased on margin, leveraging the losses during a decline, the run for the door is dramatic. That is what we are seeing this week. Not just silver but other commodities as well. Silver's decline is already of historic proportions for it's depth and rate. There will likely be sharp counter trend rallies. They will be opportunities to sell.


The fundamentals for silver are still strong.

The dollar is still in the crapper.

The only reason for the drop in silver prices is the unpresidented raising of the margin. They raised it again this morning. COMEX is lrtting J P Morgan off the hook. This makes four times they have raised the margin in two weeks.

When it gets low enough, the people who are still in the game will reap the benifits of some great buys in silver.

I expect to see $75.00 silver before the end of the year.


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## Outbreak

BillM said:


> The fundamentals for silver are still strong.
> 
> The dollar is still in the crapper.
> 
> The only reason for the drop in silver prices is the unpresidented raising of the margin. They raised it again this morning. COMEX is lrtting J P Morgan off the hook. This makes four times they have raised the margin in two weeks.
> 
> When it gets low enough, the people who are still in the game will reap the benifits of some great buys in silver.
> 
> I expect to see $75.00 silver before the end of the year.


Bill, I hope you are right.


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## Immolatus

Boy, so do I. I do plan on buying all the way down, because I am still way up on the big majority of my silver.
Looking back, and I hate to even think this way, because its pointless, but $50 wouldve been an obvious resistance point, even though I dont believe in that chartist stuff. But those who are manipulating the market would obviously use that as a trigger.
And yes, the dollar is still in the crapper.


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## geoffreys7

Looks like silver bottomed out at $35.00 this morning, I guess I'll buy some more soon if it stays at $35 for today.


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## Immolatus

Anyone buying now?
Anyone assume this 'correction' is over?


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## IrritatedWithUS

Immolatus said:


> Anyone buying now?
> Anyone assume this 'correction' is over?


I am. I'm buying silver and gold. It's fractional gold for bartering big items easier. I like my gold in 1/10th and 1/4th of an ounce increments. I think I just like the assay card it comes in. Credit card sized!

I am buying silver too. The correction is over for now IMO. And another reason why silver crashed is that Asia and Europe had a week holiday. And once again, the U.S. dollar fell against the Yen and other currencies.


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## BillM

*I bought*



IrritatedWithUS said:


> I am. I'm buying silver and gold. It's fractional gold for bartering big items easier. I like my gold in 1/10th and 1/4th of an ounce increments. I think I just like the assay card it comes in. Credit card sized!
> 
> I am buying silver too. The correction is over for now IMO. And another reason why silver crashed is that Asia and Europe had a week holiday. And once again, the U.S. dollar fell against the Yen and other currencies.


I bought back in yesterday . Silver is climbing as fast as it fell. That is whathappens when the market is artificialy manipulated. Beware of going in past fully paid for a while. as long as you can stay ahead of a margin call, they can not hurt you!


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## danerogers

Immolatus said:


> Anyone buying now?
> Anyone assume this 'correction' is over?


Not me. And again, not me.

BillM said: "_Silver is climbing as fast as it fell. That is what happens when the market is artificialy manipulated_".

In markets, "manipulation" seems the rational answer when things don't go our way. But markets are emotional, not rational. A gathering herd ran the price of silver up, as more and more people joined the herd and rationalized their reasons for doing so. Once the bubble has popped, which I think it has, as I mentioned back on May 3 (post #22) the herd abruptly changes direction. The downward collapse will not be a straight line - there will be sharp rallies, but keep in mind that the emotion of fear is stronger than that of greed. The collapse down will be faster than the run up. I witnessed exactly the same thing happen during the previous run up to $50 which was followed by a collapse to eventually under $4. It is EMOTION, pure and simple, rationalized by ideology, but emotion none the less.


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## IrritatedWithUS

If silver and gold are bubbles, why is the world aggressively buying them in order to distance themselves from the US dollar? Why are other countries now USING their USD to buy precious metals?

PM's shouldn't be thought of in USD valuations. Right now that's just the present exchange rate of worthless fiat for real money. Let silver drop to $10 or $1 or a penny. We'll still buy.

Eventually the banksters won't be able to deliver the physical that their paper is promising. That could very well be the spark to the REAL upside.

There are two different markets for PM's. Paper and physical. I don't care what the paper markets are saying, silver and gold .


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## Immolatus

Putting the prep argument for buying aside for a sec, I want to say that the dip is over. I think I (and every prepper who sees this as a hedge against SHTF, not just against the dollar) am emotionally invested here, which scares me. I can tell myself over and over that silver is different, but my investing experience tells me this cannot be so. Its hard to reconcile these two conflicting notions.
I am working hard to pay off some debts, so I'm only buying (this applies to everything right now) what I can afford, which isnt much. That said, I will be in Mexico in a few weeks, hopfully I can score some deals down there, as long as we dont get waylaid by the cartels. Or the Federales.


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## danerogers

Immolatus said:


> ...I want to say that the dip is over. I think I ... am emotionally invested here, which scares me. I can tell myself over and over that silver is different, but my investing experience tells me this cannot be so. Its hard to reconcile these two conflicting notions.
> 
> I am working hard to pay off some debts, so I'm only buying (this applies to everything right now) what I can afford, which isnt much. That said, I will be in Mexico in a few weeks, hopfully I can score some deals down there, as long as we dont get waylaid by the cartels. Or the Federales.


Congratulations in recognizing your emotions. Like a deer in headlights, it is extremely difficult to get off a position that was once a big winner but has turned against you. Everything in you says it will come back. I bet against stocks (put options) in 2000 and made money on the way down to the lows of March 2003 - then failed to exit when the bounce back up started. I "knew" the decline was not over and would begin again. And I was right but it took over four years for the decline to resume - I lost all I had gained. I repeated the same good gains from October 2007 to March 2009, and even with what I "learned" before, I again failed to exit my previously winning position (lots of rationalization about why I was right) until most was lost again. SLOW LEARNER! It is extremely difficult for civilians (non professionals) to make and keep money in the investment markets. Interestingly, ideas about how to invest depend on where we are in the investment cycle. The pitch to "buy and hold for the long term", comes to the market place only after a long run up in prices (never at a market bottom) when you can look in the past and see how "obvious" it is that prices will continue higher. It is like driving while looking in the rear view mirror and you never see the turns ahead. When markets have been down and out, civilians are disillusioned and out of the picture. The remaining professionals then focus on "market timing" in hopes of buying, riding a small run up, and selling quickly before it dives. The point is that the psychology of the market changes between bottoms and tops. We are at or near, or more likely, just past a top. Stocks and commodities are behaving in unison.

You are doing the smartest and to my mind, the number 1 prep priority - paying off debt. But that is because I expect DEflation. If inflation is your picture, borrow today and pay off with less valuable dollars in the future. Those inflated dollars come more easily as prices and wages rise. Deflation is an unfamiliar beast. Today, wages are falling and dollars to service debt will be harder to come by in the future. But then, inflation or deflation, I've never been comfortable owing money on anything. Seems too much like slavery. My investment philosophy includes only investing money I can afford to lose - then it is play money and doesn't put my home at risk.

And Irritated, when you ask "_If silver and gold are bubbles, why is the world aggressively buying them in order to distance themselves from the US dollar? Why are other countries now USING their USD to buy precious metals?_" I would suggest you are being baited by ideology. Do you ask for reliable data sources that support such claims or just believe what you are told by someone with which you agree politically? And what convinces you that you understand the motivation of these "buyers". I'd suggest that because you believe the USD has turned to crap, that they must think the same thing - or so you've been told. I've heard Glen Beck make such statements in his commentaries, then break for commercials where he promotes a precious metals broker. I'm not saying he is lying, not at all. I fully expect he strongly believes what he is saying. But like Paul Simon says in the song, The Boxer, "... still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest ...". When strong belief and emotion are involved, it is extremely difficult to see and accept data that is counter to our beliefs. I succumbed to the to the same emotions and justifications when markets moved against me. It is the way humans operate. If you can get yourself to read and article in a leftie publication, Mother Jones, it will back up what I say and as the article explains, both the right and left are subject to these delusions. It is an article based on behavior science - not politics. Found at The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science | Mother Jones

And: "_Eventually the banksters won't be able to deliver the physical that their paper is promising. That could very well be the spark to the REAL upside_." That is exactly what happened in 1979/80 when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market by demanding delivery on their contracts. All futures markets, be they P.M., oil, wheat, soybeans, pork bellies or what ever, trade in volumes much larger than the physical commodities. Could someone demand delivery again as the Hunt brothers did? (it requires huge sums of money because futures contracts are traded with margin, not at full value - delivery would require full value) Maybe, but lessons were learned back then and possibly new rules put in place to prevent such runaway events. I don't know because I don't actively trade those markets.

"_There are two different markets for PM's. Paper and physical. _. " The prices for physical commodities track the futures market. Go to a dealer to buy and the first thing they do is check the "spot" prices. For practical purposes, physical and futures are identical.

Immolatus, have a great time in Mexico!


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## BillM

*Silver now*

the trade in silver now is a short quick trade on a small pop up. Yesterday silver rose three dollars an ounce off of a low at 33 to a high of 36. That would have been a respectable trade but you would have to watch it close and move fast.


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## slick

IrritatedWithUS said:


> If silver and gold are bubbles, why is the world aggressively buying them in order to distance themselves from the US dollar? Why are other countries now USING their USD to buy precious metals?
> 
> PM's shouldn't be thought of in USD valuations. Right now that's just the present exchange rate of worthless fiat for real money. Let silver drop to $10 or $1 or a penny. We'll still buy.
> 
> Eventually the banksters won't be able to deliver the physical that their paper is promising. That could very well be the spark to the REAL upside.
> 
> There are two different markets for PM's. Paper and physical. I don't care what the paper markets are saying, silver and gold .


you got that right brother, still buying and still prepping and still trying to sell my house so I can buy my 10acres.. I have some one looking at the house this weekend keep your fingers crossed:2thumb: and there a cash buyer:2thumb:.. Cya Slick


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## power

I thought I might have made a mistake when I sold a lot of my silver at $50/ounce. Most of it I bought at $7-$10. Guess this was one time when I hit it right.


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## IrritatedWithUS

we're all gonna need it soon for when we have to barter since the U.S. hit it's debt limit. 11 weeks until government defaulting on their bills. The state of Washington's government is facing a shut down this week as well. Inflation will come, soon.


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## Immolatus

power said:


> I thought I might have made a mistake when I sold a lot of my silver at $50/ounce. Most of it I bought at $7-$10. Guess this was one time when I hit it right.


Bravo!
Since I have only been following the pm market for a few years, I couldnt see that it shouldve been a logical point to sell some off. Easy to say looking back (right Dane?) that its previous all time high wouldve been its current top out point.


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## power

I always said when silver got to $30 I would sell. When it got there I decided to wait until it got to $40. When it made it to $40 I looked for $50 and made that my sell off point. I don't remember what the spot price was as I had silver eagles. I just couldn't turn down $50 each for them.


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## danerogers

Immolatus: "_Easy to say looking back (right Dane?) that its previous all time high wouldve been its current top out point_. "
AMEN to that!

power: "_I just couldn't turn down $50 each for them._ "
Big ATTA boy to you!


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## BillM

*Nobody*



danerogers said:


> Immolatus: "_Easy to say looking back (right Dane?) that its previous all time high wouldve been its current top out point_. "
> AMEN to that!
> 
> power: "_I just couldn't turn down $50 each for them._ "
> Big ATTA boy to you!


Nobody ever went broke taking their proffits !


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## 778008

BillM said:


> Nobody ever went broke taking their proffits !


Yes, and now you can go back and rebuy and get more of the silver for the same money!


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## Immolatus

The coup de grace!


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## BillM

*Gold*

Gold is back up to 1515.00 per oz today


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## IrritatedWithUS

I switched half my silver to gold 

Still have silver and plan on buying more 

I have a suspicion in the next 2 weeks (just a hunch) that silver will drop to $29.00 an ounce. Why, I don't know really just yet. It'll be a good buying opportunity.


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