# Bad Moon Rising



## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

We talk about it all the time on here. Govt. is broke and printing money, Europe is falling apart, Japan is so deep in debt they will never see out of it, and banks around the world are ready to push the big red RESET button.

I just got the payout check from my GM retirement account (maybe enough to buy a new cheap pickup truck, but I don't need one) and I have to figure out what to do with it. I did move it from the bank we had been using to one that is rated better. Our old bank has changed its' name (reorganization) twice in a couple years. Sounds shaky to me, and I hear that a LOT of locals are fleeing that bank.

At my age, I need to save the money for obvious retirement needs, but if I just put it in a savings account/CD/Treasury bonds, it loses value at about 5% or 10% or whatever the inflation rate is right now. Same old problem I have been hammering at for the past 5 years and getting nowhere.

My personal inflation rate is pretty high, because of what old people typically buy--food, fuel, clothing, tires, batteries, and other common consumables. I would buy those things ahead now, but a lot of it doesn't store all that well, and I have already done as much of that as I can readily foresee the need for. Whatever I keep in cash savings account, if inflation stays at 10%, in less than 8 years its' value is cut in half. I can easily believe that it would be worse than that.

Got food, water, preps, no debt, and still have the welding/machine shop at home so I could restart that, but if everyone is broke, I couldn't make any money at it and would have all the tax hassle.

What to do?

As to paper "investments" of ANY kind, I refer to Ann Barnhart's statement to the effect that if you don't have it IN YOUR HAND, it ain't yours. Not doing any of that. It ain't about return ON investment now, it is about return OF investment. I would be tickled pink to find a way to simply preserve the value of what I have now. Besides, I'm 66 and don't feel like working all that hard. Might have to anyway.

Buy gold/silver coins and bury them? Government can (and has once) make it illegal to own or trade them. Not good. The US may decide they need all the gold they can lay hands on to back a "New Dollar". China is buying a Metric $--t ton of gold now, like maybe they want to back their money with it. That could be contagious.

Buy land? You gotta pay property tax on it, and that's what I want to be able to do--save what I have to pay the damned taxes on what we have now. Open a business and try to make money from that investment? Not with the tax rates where they are now.

You can run, but you can't hide. I'm getting a headache.

Cue the music:


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

Know what you mean...I'm in a quandry as well about what to do with our cash, annuities, 401K, etc....the spectre of the economic collapse is hovering over us, its outcome so unpredictable in regard to what the post collapse currency will be, if our paper dollars will have any value or even if we'll be able to get our money from the banks when the "run" is on...if we cashed out our 401K, we couldn't very well deal with the six figures as cash under our mattress, so to speak, but no FDIC will be there to cough it up later during the run on the banks...damn this national debt and our spineless politicians!!
DB


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## deetheivy (Aug 7, 2012)

if you can weld im sure you can cut metal, not the same as being a blacksmith but you can do some of the things, i would suggest building knowledge in this area may not help now but afterwards i would trade you stuff for you to fix my axle, repair the metal peices holding my water wheel together, although im sure u are profficient in these areas, so all i can say is sorry for your troubles keep your head up we will take care of us


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

This should be an interesting thread. I wish I could offer anyone investment advice, including myself. I wonder what is the best 'investment' (lets call it a hedge, since thats what were really talking about), the best way to store money.
The obvious answer (for me and assumedly most others here as well) will be pm's. (Bunch of dealers in Lville, go there, pay cash!) Yes, the issue of confiscation exist, but I am not so concerned with that, not because I think I could hide from 'the man', but because it seems like a ridiculous idea to me. They are going to come to my house to look for some coins that arent here (because of the aforementioned boating accident)? Doesnt make sense. I will mention that 'collectors' coins were exempt from the act of 33, but you pay more for them and I dont see the extra value in them, but thats just me.
There is also always the possibility that just like any other hedge can lose money, but this applies to EVERYTHING, obviously.
Personally I would only be accumulating pms (silver) if not for my horrible watercraft skills, because other than my automatic investments in the market, I dont know what else to do.
RE? Terrified of it, and yes you have to pay the taxes, but what about farmland? Rental property? You arent far from Luhvull with an endless (for now...) supply of renters. Any money generating property, but yes, its work and taxes and pwork, etc...
Farbeit for me to champion equities, but its still up and up and up, regardless of what we 'nutters' think (know?) is really going on. Can we all afford to be on the wrong side of the trade?
Just tossing out ideas (prolly none of em helpful, but...) 
Swiss Francs?
Options strategies? I dont have the money (or the guts, frankly) to use them, but selling calls (another wacky idea of mine that I havent put into action because I cant find that perfect stock to do it with, thats cheap enough and a high enough beta) or trying straddles?

I'd love to hear everyones ideas!


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

Yes, PMs for sure as it seems they will be the closest thing to currency we'll have after the "paper" money is worthless...of course guns/ammo because just try getting those after the SHTF...perhaps other items that will have value to others to barter with...if this collapse gets kicked down the road a couple years I would try to buy a remote lot for an off the grid existence...would love an underground home...


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

Thanks for the replies and ideas. I hope there are more coming, 'cuz we need all the help we can get!

I'm working to get off the electric grid now, and well on the way. Got gardens, got chickens, got cistern, got shop, and have spent a lifetime learning technologies, old and new. We once farmed 45 acres with a team of percheron mares, but we only have one acre now. We do have an orchard and herb garden, a little yard barn with the chicken coop attached. We buy local wheat and corn, grind feed and flour. I built us a wood stove that heats the house and does some cooking. Got LP for cooking backup. I see the homestead thing as not so much what you can store up, but what you can produce for the future. That is all fine, but it won't pay the property taxes, or buy other things we need. 

I always thought that the welding/machine shop business (yeah, got a blacksmith setup too) was the best answer to stay in the economy at whatever rate I can make. The problem with that is old age and getting more ricketty. Don't feel like putting in those 12 hour days laying in the gravel drive under a combine. I can conceivably be more selective about what kind of work I take on, and make that function for a few years yet, hopefully. 

Never liked having all my eggs in one basket, though, and I'm open to all ideas. 

Heck, even my tomcat is getting old...


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

I think we should all spend our "dollars" on preparing our homesteads off the grid and then some gold and silver..


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

We have talked about downsizing. Have an old RV trailer I am restoring, and enough solar stuff to operate it off grid. I know where we could buy a spot next door to our married daughter to park the RV. Put a pole shed over it, dig a cistern (wells don't work on that ridgetop), put in a septic system, and have some money left. The spot has a small pond and lots of timber. 

But, that means giving up the shop and try to turn it into cash, then I'm, back to the same problem of what to do with cash? In a solid economy, I'd do that. Live in the RV until I could build a small cabin and invest the leftover money, but with an economic mess looming, that is a bad idea. 

I guess I can sell the RV trailer...
________________

From what we heard a couple days ago, we may be having a mini-run on a local bank now. When we opened an account at another bank and moved some money there, the gal said they are getting swamped with accounts being moved from that particular bank. 

That all makes me worry a lot about assets that are not in my own hot little hand.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

I am slowly converting cash on hand to pre-65 silver coins and gold coins. A month ago when I started prepping, I had 3 silver proof sets that my parents had bought me as a kid. Today, I have a few rolls of quarters and dimes, plus two rolls of war nickels. I have also been gathering junk sterling silver, from zero ounces to about 30 ounces to melt this month. Just got all the equipment needed to melt it safely in a kiln type device, and proper 1 ounce molds.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

I know nothing about PM's. Let me say what I think(I may be totally wrong) and someone can correct me. If I buy gold I have to pay a percentage over spot price(what 5%?) then when I sell gold my buyer pays me a percentage under spot price(what 90 or 95%?). So it has to go up 10 to 15% just to break even? Plus some risk of it going down. Plus can you insure it for theft or loss by fire?


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

hiwall said:


> I know nothing about PM's. Let me say what I think(I may be totally wrong) and someone can correct me. If I buy gold I have to pay a percentage over spot price(what 5%?) then when I sell gold my buyer pays me a percentage under spot price(what 90 or 95%?). So it has to go up 10 to 15% just to break even? Plus some risk of it going down. Plus can you insure it for theft or loss by fire?


Don't know about the insurance part but yes, you have to pay a little over spot when you buy and get a little under spot when you sell...if it wasn't for this economic crisis, I wouldn't be buying it for an investment but it's a hedge against inflation meaning PMs increase in value when the dollar loses value and that's what many think will happen, in fact, the dollar has already started its downward spiral..also, it tends to hold value and will probably continue to while the fiat money in the world will lose its value...BILLS knows more than I about this, perhaps he'll chime in...


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

That's not always the case. I can get silver for under or at spot. You must seriously look for best prices... Yes typically though when buying you do pay % over spot, but do not go to one of those we buy gold places... Sell on eBay or other places and you will make spot, because people pay typically 10% over spot. So if your selling a 1/2 rand, then you sales price will be around $900 or so, that more than makes up you eBay fees and PayPal costs.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

Dont have an idea for all of it but I never need a good excuse to buy another weapon and ammo


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

I’ve been in the same situation, with much less cash to worry about though. I have a nice little place and a few years worth of sundries and all.

I want to store what little wealth I have. Keeping cash around is losing that 10% or whatever inflation is. I do have 3 months worth of green pieces of paper in my possession though. I figure that is enough to tide me over if banks take a holiday and folks still have faith that they are worth something.

I went with silver and gold, more silver at the moment because I feel it is way undervalued compared to gold. What is it now, something like 50:1 ratio instead of the traditional 15:1? Been buying silver eagles, whatever year is the cheapest. Back when they outlawed owning gold they exempted collector coins, therefore I’m stocking up on US issued ‘currency’ in the form of silver. Morgan and Peace dollars are also good if you can find them at the right price. Junk silver too, just no 'bars' of PM's for me.

Now, about them losing value. Say the price of silver goes from $30 to $15. I have lost half of my stored value. Holding cash at the inflation rate it would take to make silver drop that far is like losing far more than 50% of its value! If silver falls due to manipulation, it will go back to where it should be after all is said and done. Just don’t panic and sell at a loss.

I’m going for a fairly long term investment, not a day trader kind of guy. When it comes time that I need some cash I know I will be able to at least get what I paid for it. So it is like using 2012 dollars to buy 2013 goods. There really is no other means of storing wealth that I can think of. Will I make 20% a year in investment income? No. Do I plan on making a killing by investing in PM’s? No. Do I plan on having $1 of purchasing power in years to come with every dollar I invested? No. Do I plan on having something that is worth something in years to come? YES!


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

*Why Not Keep it in a Bank?*

Because once THEY have it, it ain't your money any more. It's theirs:

http://theintelhub.com/2012/08/24/customer-deposits-are-property-of-the-bank-close-your-account-now/

Quote:
"According to Walker Todd , former lawyer for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Cleveland:

"Basically, there is a new 7th Circuit opinion saying that there is no reason to impose a constructive trust on a lender's takings of customers' funds from client commodity firms that were used (inappropriately) to secure the firms' borrowings, as long as the lender can say that it did not know WITH CERTAINTY that customers' funds were being repledged. Negligence and misappropriation (vs. knowing criminal intent) are now a sufficient excuse for letting the lender keep the money and go to the head of the line for distributions in bankruptcies of the client commodity firms."

When a customer deposits money into a bank, the bank essentially issues a promise to have those funds available when the customer returns to withdraw the deposited amount.

When the same customer withdraws funds from their account (whether checking or savings) the customer assumes that the bank has enough funds to cover their withdrawal; including the presumption that their monies are separate from the bank's assets.

Now, those funds are up for grabs by the bank at their discretion without explanation to the customer - nor is the bank obligated to recoup the customer should they "lose" those funds due to bad loans, bankruptcy or stock market loss."


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

It's more like 2-3% from the larger reputable dealers, hiwall.
I'd look at PMs first. 
If you're good there, it might be worthwhile to increase the barstocks for your shop. You can always barter your work for food. I don't recall barstock ever going down in price, but I don't really follow it either.
There's always ammo and alcohol too.
Shoot even TP will be worth more than dollars.


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## Zanazaz (Feb 14, 2012)

Store green coffee beans. They have a long shelf life if stored properly, and if for some reason the coffee stops shipping, you will have a very valuable commodity. The beans will be worth more than gold or silver.

Of course you would need a way to roast them and then grind them, but that's not a big deal.

Just an idea.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

The coffee experts may not like it, but instant coffee stores very well in the original package. Us peasants can get along with it and it is convenient to use. 

The big problem I see is that the more liquid the investment, the more risk from TPTB, PM's being the top example. Gold and silver have all the attributes of a good medium of exchange and can't be counterfeited. (CAN be faked, but is fairly easy to detect.) 

The farther you get from "money", such as trade goods, the more trouble it would be to get coin-of-the-realm for paying your taxes. And trade goods are much more bulky, harder to store, some have a shelf life, etc..

So, the prospect of a decaying currency forces everyone to be a speculator, whether they want to or not.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

FDR made owning gold illegal but the government bought the gold. They didn't confiscate it without paying for it. Most likely after the government is bankrupt and they issue a new gold-backed currency the government will buy gold again. 

I'd prefer to invest in gold and silver. Half in each. I've heard a few people say that they expect gold to double to $3200 and silver to go back to it's historic 16-1 ratio with gold. That would make silver go to $200 from about $30.

If you buy strictly pre-1965 junk silver coins you're not investing in silver. You have a coin collection. At least that's what my story would be.

I also think the collapse is mere months away and not years. I don't know if there are going to be some significant shocks to the economy first. Or whether the Fed will announce QE3, the dollar will suddenly collapse, and we'll be in a complete economic collapse in a short period of time. Like 10 days. I'm paranoid that I'll be trying to finish my preps at a time when the stores are being cleaned out.


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## Zanazaz (Feb 14, 2012)

machinist said:


> The farther you get from "money", such as trade goods, the more trouble it would be to get coin-of-the-realm for paying your taxes. And trade goods are much more bulky, harder to store, some have a shelf life, etc..
> 
> So, the prospect of a decaying currency forces everyone to be a speculator, whether they want to or not.


My opinion is that you have PMs to retain value of the money you've earned. Trade goods are for when you might want to trade for needed items, or silver, and want to keep your PMs. Diversification is good, even in a SHTF event. Again, like someone mentioned, you don't want all your eggs in one basket.

Yes, instant coffee would be a good trade item as well.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

I also view jewelry as an investment. I have several items that I have bought 5-10 years ago that have only gone up in value. In a SHTF the items can be melted worst case. In non-SHTF world, the quality of the item will continue to only increase the value. For example, my mother has a ring with 4 diamond, representing engagement, 5th, 10yr, and 15yr anniversaries. Total price of the stones back 30 yrs ago max was $3000, latest appraisal is over $50k. another is a gold chain weighting 1.5 toz, 3-4 yrs ago, $1200, today, $2400+

Silver and gold are finite objects and are used in almost anything with a circuit board... The prices will only go up with time. When US dumped their stockpile of silver, the silver market collapsed, now the government is purchasing, and over the last 10 yrs we have seen prices rise. Look at 2009 when silver was $10 now it is hovering around $30, but between 2009 and 2010 it went 5x value. Gold went from around $800 to around $1600, then up to $1900. Gold is where the 'action' is at with the traders right now, your seeing swings over $200+/- over 60 day periods. I don't think any other country would be dumb enough in these economic times to dump their gold/silver. 

Either way, in a SHTF scenario, I think you need to also think about the rebuilding phase. During that time some type of currency is going to be needed to establish a value of goods bought/sold. If the human race survives, this will be the norm cause we have always had some type of currency - gold, silver, clay chips, or paper... It will be no different. Those with a respectable amount will be able to re-establish commerce.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

BillS said:
"I also think the collapse is mere months away and not years. I don't know if there are going to be some significant shocks to the economy first. Or whether the Fed will announce QE3, the dollar will suddenly collapse, and *we'll be in a complete economic collapse in a short period of time. Like 10 days. I'm paranoid that I'll be trying to finish my preps at a time when the stores are being cleaned out."
*
Yeah, me too. Hope to get several things in order ASAP. Money is one of those things.


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