# A scenario to ponder over...



## Bravo_12v (Dec 30, 2011)

Well I recently finished reading the book "One Second After" great book, but it got me wondering about many aspects of a post-SHTF (due to an E.M.P) world. Some of the things it presented was such as many city dwellers think that out in the country there is an abundance of food and that due to our kind hearts we will willingly feed them and house them. The reality of it no matter how you cut the deck is that we will most likely not due to every "ecosystem" has a certain amount of people it cans sustain. That being said there is also other things to consider say for example things like "exotic" diseases and viruses being brought into small towns by city dwellers. Without refrigeration and the conveniences of modern technology medicines normally available will not longer be there.

So my question is this how many of you will help out your town in any aspect you can with your skills or is it best to go at it alone in your opinion. I for myself think that in order to survive it is best to join up as a community regardless if all your town prepared or not provided you are from a small town this of course is for the resources avalible to a community v.s the lone family prepper. 

Everything from security to just conversation with other people will help.


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## bigpaul (Jun 16, 2012)

Bravo_12v said:


> Well I recently finished reading the book "One Second After" great book, but it got me wondering about many aspects of a post-SHTF (due to an E.M.P) world. Some of the things it presented was such as many city dwellers think that out in the country there is an abundance of food and that due to our kind hearts we will willingly feed them and house them. The reality of it no matter how you cut the deck is that we will most likely not due to every "ecosystem" has a certain amount of people it cans sustain. That being said there is also other things to consider say for example things like "exotic" diseases and viruses being brought into small towns by city dwellers. Without refrigeration and the conveniences of modern technology medicines normally available will not longer be there.
> 
> So my question is this how many of you will help out your town in any aspect you can with your skills or is it best to go at it alone in your opinion. I for myself think that in order to survive it is best to join up as a community regardless if all your town prepared or not provided you are from a small town this of course is for the resources avalible to a community v.s the lone family prepper.
> 
> Everything from security to just conversation with other people will help.


i live in a small market town(population 1,300) but even that is too many too feed if the infrastructure shuts down, so wife and i are bugging out and planning to go it alone, wife dosent think this place is safe post SHTF.


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## Bravo_12v (Dec 30, 2011)

See I come from a large farming/ranching community and from a military stand point my town is easy to defend, hard to attack, plenty of hunting, plenty of fresh water, and its got lots of naturals barriers. However as with any town that small nowadays however a highway still runs through it so in order to protect it and protect food supplies you would have to defend it against city dwellers, mobs, and well those who follow the people who "spoke to God" and God told them to kill everything in their path. Most people back home will actually band together as they are doing right now because of a fire so I suppose I should count my blessings.


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## SierraM37 (Nov 2, 2008)

If, or perhaps when some type of societal collapse occurs, this country will return to small communities. The community will have self preservation of its members as the primary objective. It will be all hard work and very little play to get the community to be self sufficient as we have gone soft over time and lack the skills, mindset and work ethic that it will require. Humans have always banded together in groups as social interaction is part of the fabric. There will be rugged individuals living off the land Jeremiah Johnson style and for some, maybe even more so after a collapse, that will be just fine.


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## d_saum (Jan 17, 2012)

I absolutely loved that book. It was a real eye opener. Probably the scariest part about the whole thing was that It was sent to me by someone who works with our military's nuclear arsenal.. and knows what's what. 

If it happened tomorrow, I would attempt to band together with my family and neighbors initially, but would NOT let them know about my preps. I'd offer my advice and services, and try to get everyone on the same page of where we need to be. If things started to get shady, I'd grab my relatives and bug out, but.. I think my current location would be a good place to bug in, and form an alliance with a few of my neighbors. My next door neighbor is a retired cop, and he's well stocked in guns and ammo. I actually recently gave him a copy of One Second After and am waiting for him to read it because I'd like to get his opinion on it all. I have several friends who are hunters, and am actually going to start going with them to get my hands dirty.  

Our town is kind of "out of the way" so I'm not too terribly worried about people from the big city passing through. There are a lot more tempting targets than my little neighborhood. I'd still be prepared for transients though. :wave: (by prepared.. I mean armed to the teeth!  )


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

d_saum said:


> ... would NOT let them know about my preps. I'd offer my advice and services, and try to get everyone on the same page of where we need to be....


Same here.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

d_saum said:


> Probably the scariest part about the whole thing was that It was sent to me by someone who works with our military's nuclear arsenal.. and knows what's what.


I was told about it by a 20 year (retired) Master Sergeant with the U.S. Army Missile Command.


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## Possumfam (Apr 19, 2011)

Read the forward of that book. If I remember correctly, Reagan was hardening our military for it - but no one has since.


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## Turtle (Dec 10, 2009)

Great book! One of the very few of which I know that EVERYONE who reads it has nothing but good things to say about it. 

Another one that I like to point toward is "Dies the Fire" by S.M. Stirling. It centers around a more fictional event, but it (and it's two sequels) has a more world-wide view of the impact of such an event. It paints the vast majority of the Eastern seaboard as a "dead zone" with very few survivors. Remember that we have in our popular lexicon the saying, "Head for the hills" in reference to escaping bad things. The endless suburban sprawl along the I-95 corridor will spread like a plague of locusts, stripping the land before them as they go, until a point where the massive die-off begins. 

Also remember that even in our more agrarian areas, most farming is now done with large machines. If something knocks out modern technology, massive amounts of crops will rot in the fields because even a lot of farmers no longer possess the skills to effect a large-scale harvest by hand. As said before, even relatively tiny (by modern standards) towns of around 1000 people will see starvation and disease. Most towns in medieval Europe numbered less than 200 souls. There is a delicately balanced labor-to-resource threshold ratio which would allow people to self-sustain.


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## d_saum (Jan 17, 2012)

Possumfam said:


> Read the forward of that book. If I remember correctly, Reagan was hardening our military for it - but no one has since.


You are correct sir. Alas.. no one has taken that threat seriously since. And now with Iran, N. Korea, and whomever else has the desire and the financing, I think we need it now more than ever.


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## d_saum (Jan 17, 2012)

Turtle said:


> Great book! One of the very few of which I know that EVERYONE who reads it has nothing but good things to say about it.


Alas, I know of ONE person who called it "crappy". Naturally.. He's a huge liberal drone, and thinks nothing like that could EVER happen, but the ironic part is.. he's the younger brother of the military fellow I mentioned earlier who gave us the book. The younger brother of the same fellow who works directly with the aforementioned arsenal. But of course, he thinks he knows more than everyone else.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

d_saum said:


> You are correct sir. Alas.. no one has taken that threat seriously since.


Well, it depends. I work in the aerospace industry, and a lot of military aircraft could take a pretty severe EMP hit. All of the "flight critical" circuits use twisted pair wire run inside braided shielding. At least you could still fly the plane... although you probably couldn't communicate with anyone else.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

Bravo_12v said:


> Well I recently finished reading the book "One Second After" great book, but it got me wondering about many aspects of a post-SHTF (due to an E.M.P) world. Some of the things it presented was such as many city dwellers think that out in the country there is an abundance of food and that due to our kind hearts we will willingly feed them and house them. The reality of it no matter how you cut the deck is that we will most likely not due to every "ecosystem" has a certain amount of people it cans sustain. That being said there is also other things to consider say for example things like "exotic" diseases and viruses being brought into small towns by city dwellers. Without refrigeration and the conveniences of modern technology medicines normally available will not longer be there.
> 
> So my question is this how many of you will help out your town in any aspect you can with your skills or is it best to go at it alone in your opinion. I for myself think that in order to survive it is best to join up as a community regardless if all your town prepared or not provided you are from a small town this of course is for the resources avalible to a community v.s the lone family prepper.
> 
> Everything from security to just conversation with other people will help.


I don't have extra food for strangers. If I had extra food it would go to my relatives, my wife's relatives, family friends, and people we know from church.

To me, the biggest factor is that you don't know who you can trust. People might pretend that have supplies so that they can kill you for yours. The time to join up with other people is now.


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## cajunmeadows (Oct 21, 2011)

I live 10 miles outside a small comunity. Down a dead end road out in the woods. I believe in helping out your neighbor but feel in an extgreme case who you help out is important. Only those who can contribute. Sounds harsh but I have myself and 5 kids to think of all can shot take care of animals etc. We have a few acres so not free handouts just the way it is.


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## musketjim (Dec 7, 2011)

EMP is the situation I will have hardest time dealing with unfortunately. Bug out location is a bit of a drive to boat launch and then a bit of a boat ride upriver. We can reach it with a long hike but it is difficult to carry enough supplies to get us there and start again. Some supplies are there and I have good skills but I have to accept the fact that my supplies there may go to someone else, and they may not be friendly. I spend quite a bit of time there planting and improving with my family. Best case scenario is that I am able to discern signs of an upcoming problem and be in place when it goes down. Of course a no notice EMP is the worst possible scenario. Hopefully here in interior Alaska there isn't enough for them to use one on.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

musketjim said:


> EMP is the situation.... Bug out location is a bit of a drive to boat launch and then a bit of a boat ride upriver.


 I know of no gasoline outboards that can handle a EMP event. Their ignitions seems the most fragile of any engine.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

I plan to bug in quietly till after the first couple die off's if possible. Those left would probably be the right type. Just have to have enough value in skills and goods to take my pick of the new communities once I pop my head up.


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## 101airborne (Jan 29, 2010)

My plan is somewhere in between. If we are able we'll head for our BOL (72 miles away) as well as other members of our "group" each of us have skills that will help up get by. The location is 70+ acres, good water source, 40 miles from the nearest town at the end of a gravel road, plenty of woods around. Already stocking it in hidden caches.


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## BlueShoe (Aug 7, 2010)

Lights Out is not crappy, but it's not exactly a high brow read. If you're a sophisticated/avid reader, it's probably sophomoric to your pallet. I'm not, and it intrigued me, even though I recognized it was not challenging brain cells. Liberals frequently read a lot, so that type of fantasy with weapons and violence doesn't satisfy them as much as a who done-it where the violence isn't illustrated. Stupid, I know.

Saying that, we have nothing to fear from Iran and N Korea in EMP regards for the time being. They're DECADES from having a functional capability, and then they have to master miniaturization and delivery. What you need to fear are those countries who have access from dozens to hundreds of nuke weapons. Countries with weapons to spare on such an attack. Those include China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Israel. 

What's the square root of 9? If you answered three, you're wrong. That is not a complete answer. The second number in the answer is not so clear. The answer is positive or negative 3. Negative 3 squared is 9, as is positive 3. Don't rule out a false flag by an ally to blame your enemy. They've got the means and delivery since they're operating in your nation. Flank maneuvers are not the only deceptive tactic in warfare. Guerrilla war is not open warfare either.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

I agree with BillS who said, "The time to join up with other people is now." There wll be too many problems to do that after the fact. 

Becoming an integral, functional part of your community now is very important, IMHO. Yes, there may be a few Jeremiah Johnsons out there, but I think something along the lines of the medieval village mentioned here, or an early American pioneer village is what will evolve over time as the most functional for an energy-poor society. Probably, many of those will be centered around sources of water power, water transportation, and good agricultural land, as they were throughout history. 

I wrote a PAW novel on this topic, but I'm a newbie here and have to work out the details with Naekid before I post it. In any case, I have given this a lot of thought. I concluded that wife and I should be in a community where we fit in and are useful contributors. Toward that end, for 9+ years before retirement, we operated a small farm repair shop at home. We closed the business a year ago, but the demand is there and could be re-started if needed in a difficult time. 

Yes, farming is almost totally dependent on both the electric grid and fossil fuels, plus massive amounts of fertilizers and chemicals. Seed is another whole topic, and one that is in the news lately, with Monsanto's efforts to monopolize the seed market. In a grid-down scenario, I personally doubt if we could feed more than 5% of the present population, mainly due to the lack of available fuels, seeds, and fertilizers. There is also the prolem of how to process all that food, since home processing seems to be largely a thing of the past now. 

I read somewhere that some official said that in the event of a major EMP event, 90% of the population would be dead within a year, IIRC. It is not something to take lightly.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

machinist said:


> I read somewhere that some official said that in the event of a major EMP event, 90% of the population would be dead within a year, IIRC. It is not something to take lightly.


I don't think that is "official"... but it is mentioned by a fictional "official" in the book "One Second After".

It isn't too hard to believe. We are arguing about the same thing here: http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f2/one-many-reasons-why-i-plan-bugging-3633/index15.html


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