# What chances do you put on the SHTF barter world scenario for USA?



## keepitlow

This dated movie from 1984, is based on a SHTF scenario which would return us to medieval time living.

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The movie uses nuclear war as their SHTF basis. But many things presented in the movie that are common to present day concerns, such as peak oil and mass starvation, that don't necessarily depend on nuke wars.

I am on other forums where members are pretty sure they will be trading silver or gold coins for things down the road. They feel the USD will become worthless as it is backed by nothing.

In reality money is just 'stored energy'. The dollar is and has always been backed with or without gold. It is backed by the American Way of Life. If you got some dollars, you can buy a life here.

But people still have to put trust in the money and way of life the money represents. This is why money gets devalued in nations that have or are about to collapse. No trust in their way of life any longer.

The problem with the backing of the dollar is that the American Dream is in shambles. And as our life in America crumbles around us...so must the dollar that represents this shattered dream.

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I give it a 5% chance of life decomposing to the SHTF level of having to barter to live. (But I won't argue with 10% either.)

What chances do you put on the SHTF barter world scenario?


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## The_Blob

100%

that's how *I'M* living _*now*_ ...


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## HozayBuck

*Barter? some call it...*

Horse trading, and I do that all the time... usually with a gun I got that I no longer want or didn't like.. Bartering is nothing more then that, car dealers do it every day, many business's do.

As for down the road?.. I think it's higher then the 5% the OP gave it.. I'd say a lot closer to 25% but then I'm an optimist 

All the barter ( trade goods) I have are things I use a lot of and have a lot of.. even if I never need to use it for trade goods it's worth plenty... ammo, LTS foods, these things have value right now and will have a lot more if the SHTF... I have 3 extra Ar's I planned to sell but the market is glutted right now so I'll hang on to them...they don't eat and who knows!!...

For some reason "nails" just popped into my mine, I've never thought about nails before in that way... hard to build without them.. can be done but.. so maybe a few cases of more common nails would be smart.. rope!! how could I forget that??? how would we hang the BG's without rope? damn!!

chain... on and on... In my head I hear Cher and lil whatzname singing the beat goes on ... but it the "list goes on"...

Nails....huh, where did that come from?.. inner voice..best listen to it..


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## Clarice

We have a good stock of useful things to barter with, Started spliting firewood this past week. Have already sold 5 cords. With 3 more on order. Sewing supplies, needles, thread, buttons etc. are good barter items. Toilet paper is like having gold. Adult and children's diapers, hand cream, soap just to name a few. Think of everything you use in your day to day living, any of these items would be good for barter. Today's society does not like to do without.


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## UncleJoe

HozayBuck said:


> For some reason "nails" just popped into my mine, I've never thought about nails before in that way... hard to build without them.. can be done but.. so maybe a few cases of more common nails would be smart.. rope!! how could I forget that??? how would we hang the BG's without rope? damn!!


I picked up a couple wooden kegs of nails at a farm auction last summer for practically nothing. I think they were $5.00 each. I guess the thought of lugging about 200 lbs of nails out of there discouraged everyone else.
Rope? Being an arborist, I buy it by the 600' spool. 1/2 inch 12 strand braided with a 7800# test. None of that cheap twisty stuff when your life depends on it. Could string up a lot of BG's with that.  Wanna trade?


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## tac803

keepitlow said:


> But people still have to put trust in the money and way of life the money represents. This is why money gets devalued in nations that have or are about to collapse. No trust in their way of life any longer.
> 
> The problem with the backing of the dollar is that the American Dream is in shambles. And as our life in America crumbles around us...so must the dollar that represents this shattered dream.


From my perspective, the dollar is already worthless. The real problems are going to start when the rest of the world comes to the same conclusion at the same time. The fed is printing 600 BILLION dollars to monitize the federal debt for the next 6 months. Backed by the "full faith and trust of the US government"? Wow. Before this is over, I'm afraid people are going to be burning money to try to keep warm.


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## thelilbear

*Nails .... huh?*

"Nails....huh, where did that come from?.. inner voice..best listen to it.."

I have found you should ALWAYS listen to that inner voice! Its smart!
Im gonna listen to your inner voice too! LOL I dont even know you!


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## ComputerGuy

Nails on the list!!


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## The_Blob

I've got a few of those little 2' wooden barrels filled with nails... 

I use them infequently, but I'm glad I have them when I need them

it's just that I've been looking at/practicing a few different 'nailless' construction techniques & REALLY like them, slightly more labor intensive, but not too bad, even for MY crippled arse...

P.S. sometimes i cheat and use nails to hold stuff in place & then take them out when it's 'done'


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## HozayBuck

The_Blob said:


> I've got a few of those little 2' wooden barrels filled with nails...
> 
> I use them infequently, but I'm glad I have them when I need them
> 
> it's just that I've been looking at/practicing a few different 'nailless' construction techniques & REALLY like them, slightly more labor intensive, but not too bad, even for MY crippled arse...
> 
> P.S. sometimes i cheat and use nails to hold stuff in place & then take them out when it's 'done'


Long ago in what I call my ******* hippy years I spent about 9 month in Maine, working in construction , the company did a lot of renovations of old but solid barns for the new money yuppies , almost all of the barns were really old.. some back to 1700's.. and almost all the beams and other heavy stuff mortised joints, hand cut with chisels then drilled and pinned with hand whittled Oak pins.. and they were as solid then as the first day... it was a real learning experience.. all the nails were hand forged and we saved all that had to be removed... I had some for years but they drifted away.. I've never forgotten that old way of building.. and now besides nails, I think a set of good quality chisels and a wooden mallet might be a real good investment..

Cachink!..another idea!


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## worldengineer

I have realized the dollar is worthless. I once made a joking jesture that I would use it all up buying usefull stuff. Now only If I could convince my family I'm not the only one that thinks like this.

PS I wouldn't mind getting one AR. Expecially having three extra's.


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## goshengirl

I see nails in my future... 

I've been keeping bartering in mind with food storage, too. We don't drink alcohol or coffee here (no reason other than preference for other stuff), but whenever we get a gift (alcohol) or samples in the mail (coffee) I just put that stuff in the "bartering" section of our food storage. Just might never know....

Clarice, you're so right about TP! Although my not-on-board-with-prepping husband is becoming seriously concerned with our TP stash.


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## RoadRash

I look at the value of a classic car/truck way down I have an extra motorcycle I am working on the right trade as a back up the two SUV we now have, I can swing a better deal as the market is soft so I am looking at the best deal for me. 
I have also traded for lots of my tools, portable welder was 100 bucks of old HD parts I no longer needed (New value was $900) I scored large on that deal. I have rented the welder out to a mechanic guy in lieu of future work on vehicles.....Win win situation


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## BillS

To answer the original post, I believe that the chances of a SHTF scenario in America are 100%. I have no doubt that a collapse is coming. I think it's coming very soon. Most likely before the election. Given that I don't know anybody who's prepping I have no plans to trade anything with anybody. The problem is that you won't know who can trust. Anybody could pose as a prepper only to be someone who wants to kill you for your stuff.


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## invision

BillS said:


> To answer the original post, I believe that the chances of a SHTF scenario in America are 100%. I have no doubt that a collapse is coming. I think it's coming very soon. Most likely before the election. Given that I don't know anybody who's prepping I have no plans to trade anything with anybody. The problem is that you won't know who can trust. Anybody could pose as a prepper only to be someone who wants to kill you for your stuff.


Immediately during the first 3-5 months, yes... but eventually you will need to trust someone...


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## k0xxx

keepitlow said:


> ... What chances do you put on the SHTF barter world scenario?


I give it almost 100% on a short term or irregular basis, but then some type of currency will emerge. Barter is just too cumbersome to be a perpetual mode of exchange.


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## machinist

What k0xxx said. For a period of time, in certain places I can see barter being a significant revival of "horsetrading". It may endure some places longer than others, depending on how things go. 

Trading has been a way of life for many rural folks forever. I heard a National Public Radio show interviewing an old man who lived through the Bank Holidays of the 1930's. He said everyone in his tiny town just traded IOU's. Some were paid off with goods or services, and others waited until money was accessible again some MONTHS later. 

I give it 100% chance of happening, and not too far away. Can't put a time on it, because the banksters are so devious, though.


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## labouton

machinist said:


> What k0xxx said. For a period of time, in certain places I can see barter being a significant revival of "horsetrading". It may endure some places longer than others, depending on how things go.
> 
> Trading has been a way of life for many rural folks forever. I heard a National Public Radio show interviewing an old man who lived through the Bank Holidays of the 1930's. He said everyone in his tiny town just traded IOU's. Some were paid off with goods or services, and others waited until money was accessible again some MONTHS later.
> 
> I give it 100% chance of happening, and not too far away. Can't put a time on it, because the banksters are so devious, though.


And I just read the banksters are now looking for a QE4 as the QE3 isn't enough!!


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## invision

labouton said:


> And I just read the banksters are now looking for a QE4 as the QE3 isn't enough!!


Show the link, QE3 is open ended... Meaning it will last until BB shuts it off.


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## Magus

The_Blob said:


> 100%
> 
> that's how *I'M* living _*now*_ ...


Yep.it's ALREADY here.


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## Dakine

Every $1 spent today is worth $1000 after some kind of serious event. And at some point it just becomes impossible to calculate. The fall of Zimbabwe and Argentina had something in common, a global economy left over to pick up the pieces... The US, Europe and China are joined at the hip. We die together, and we pull everyone else down with us. 

Sadly, we have not learned from history, and we're doomed to repeat it.


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## Turtle

If you put our current economic system in perspective, we already have a "barter" system; goods are being traded for something (money) that someone else wants more than the product that they have to trade. As such, I think it will be fairly natural for people to transition back to that, if for no other reason than desperation. The difficult period will consist of the adjustment time when people will have difficulty agreeing upon about relative value: "I need your apples but all I have left to offer is this backpack, that should be worth a bushel of apples, at least!" 
"No way, I'll give you a dozen apples." Etcetera, etcetera. 

I would have to agree that it is probably unavoidable at this point.


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## kejmack

I already barter for things I need on a regular basis. I traded babysitting for fill dirt. I traded eggs and produce for a bunch of wood. I traded part of my dog's vet bill by doing office work for the vet. Opportunities are out there. You just have to ask.


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## jsriley5

Of course it's my cousins shop but I often trade reloading, or items or help accepting deliveries etc for the work needed on my vehicles since I can't do it myself anymore. ANd I guess my "weirdness" has rubbed off as he and his brother are prepping to one degree or another and that is really good to see. 

I figure a colapse is imminent if for no other reason that history, we have already managed to last too long. 

As for barter it's done round here all the time, I think once money is of no value it will just naturally fall in line for folks to barter goods or services for what they need. 
I also stock some stuff specifically for it's later barter value. Including reloading supplies and neck sizing dies so I can make ammo for "grandpas old rifle" and such though I"m a bit leery of trading too much in ammo. I don't want to be killed by my own reloads.


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