# How to avoid a Finacial Cliff??? Just put it off..



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Makes total sense to me... Fail. :nuts:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/2012/09/21/lawmakers-may-delay-fiscal-cliff-deadlines/


----------



## Sentry18 (Aug 5, 2012)

That's like putting off you treatment because you don't want to deal with the cancer. Stupid.


----------



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Sentry18 said:


> That's like putting off you treatment because you don't want to deal with the cancer. Stupid.


Yeah, I agree - and what is worse was:



> Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, who briefed members of Congress this week after declaring that "I don't think our tools are strong enough to offset the effects of a major fiscal shock" of the cliff


Uh, and they still are putting it off??? :congrat: way to go congress :congrat:

And of course the last paragraph...



> A year-end failure by Congress could mean "the first recession that is caused by political roadblocks," Minnesota Economist Tom Stinson told the StarTribune newspaper in Minneapolis-St. Paul recently.
> 
> Attempting to put in layman's terms the potential impact of imposing "$650 billion worth of fiscal drag" on the economy, Stinson told Reuters in a telephone interview that falling off the fiscal cliff would be "roughly the equivalent of going to bed on December 31 with gasoline (prices) at $3.85 a gallon and waking up next morning with gas at $10.35 a gallon."


----------



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

They should cancel the massive tax increases that are coming or the economy will grind to a halt. Wait. That's what Obama wants, isn't it?


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Either the Dems or the Reps will have to do a big reversal to get the tax cuts renewed. Do you really see either one changing their stance?


----------



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

hiwall said:


> Either the Dems or the Reps will have to do a big reversal to get the tax cuts renewed. Do you really see either one changing their stance?


Nope not one bit... And if Romney wins, then from election day to Jan when he takes office is going to be lame duck session, so nothing will get done...

Fun times are a comin'


----------



## JayJay (Nov 23, 2010)

invision said:


> Nope not one bit... And if Romney wins, then from election day to Jan when he takes office is going to be lame duck session, so nothing will get done...
> 
> Fun times are a comin'


Or...they'll pass every stupid thing they can get away with for the fraud's EO complex.


----------



## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

_"* Conservative Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has touted a "mini deal" in November or December to delay decisions through March. It would contain a $20 billion deficit cut."_
20 billion? I scoff in your general direction.

_"* Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, a longtime Democratic deficit hawk, said the "optimum outcome" would give Congress six more months to work out details on revamping the tax code and big government programs like Social Security and Medicare."_
Right, because they havent had enough time to 'work out details'.

_"If Republican challenger Mitt Romney wins, he is almost certain to demand a complete renewal of the Bush tax cuts, although he would not take office until January 20."
_Am I nuts for envisioning_ a _scenario where they are allowed to expire on Jan 1, only to be reenacted on the 21st, and somehow creating a monstrous clusterf*** in that 20 days?

_"Euan Munro, who oversees Standard Life's $27.3 billion Global Absolute Return Strategies portfolio, said his firm is braced for some political eruption later this year owing to the fiscal cliff. "We could certainly see some volatility in the stock markets, as we did with TARP," said Munro. "You need the political will to reconcile big fundamental issues like this."
_Can anyone say 'downgrade?

What a joke.


----------



## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

These people are being paid big bucks and a fat pension....so HOW are they earning it? Pathetic!


----------



## Sentry18 (Aug 5, 2012)

db2469 and I are on the same page once again! Hallelujah! 

I wonder how much of our national debt we could pay off if we cut all congressional, senatorial, presidential and other political position pensions (current and former) down to say the average American's income. Don't forget to put them on Medicare too, they do not need 100% insurance coverage. What are the chances of that changing any of their standard of living? 0%? 1%?


----------



## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

Sentry18 said:


> db2469 and I are on the same page once again! Hallelujah!
> 
> LOL...we're both members of the same species, it's bound to happen once in a while!


----------



## mojo4 (Feb 19, 2012)

Well since the Fed is pumping 40 to 100 billion a month of made up money into the economy any piddly 20 billion cut is like pocket change. We are so completely f#cked up financially its only a matter of time.


----------



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

Sentry18 said:


> db2469 and I are on the same page once again! Hallelujah!
> 
> I wonder how much of our national debt we could pay off if we cut all congressional, senatorial, presidential and other political position pensions (current and former) down to say the average American's income. Don't forget to put them on Medicare too, they do not need 100% insurance coverage. What are the chances of that changing any of their standard of living? 0%? 1%?


Congress spends about a billion dollars a year on itself. The debt is 16 trillion. If we cut all future expenditures for Congress that saves us 1/16,000 of the debt each year. That's couch cushion money for the government.


----------



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

But it is a start... Add in stopping foreign aid... And it goes up even more... Every penny saved...


----------



## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

invision said:


> But it is a start... Add in stopping foreign aid... And it goes up even more... Every penny saved...


That's right...we need cuts on practically everything..


----------



## PennyPincher (Dec 5, 2011)

another delay may very well cause another downgrade in the credit rating too


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

"Add in stopping foreign aid... "

the Senate just voted to keep giving aid to Pakistan, what a bunch of losers.


----------



## MsSage (Mar 3, 2012)

OK I have a dumb question.....financial deals of this magnitude have always been lost on me...
How are we still going with the printing of money and the dollar really not having a value? Why have we not falling over the edge since to me it seems like we have walked off the cliff and are still walking without support......


----------



## Meerkat (May 31, 2011)

All are puppets,ones no better or worse than the other.Theres an evil thats come over the world and nothing can be done about it or control it.

Its been in the plans for 1000s of years.Now with the advances in technology and weapons it will happen.

All we can do is prepare as best we can and wait,IMO.While we wait we can at least hope that we can save ourselves as much discomfort as possible with preperations.Thats my take it all.

Luciferian forces rule though the illuminati.


----------



## Meerkat (May 31, 2011)

hiwall said:


> "Add in stopping foreign aid... "
> 
> the Senate just voted to keep giving aid to Pakistan, what a bunch of losers.


 They have been using the military complex that Eisenhower warned us abvout for decades now.Why do you think they are puttign in radicals in all these nations?So far they have the power to make laws and decisions that will enslave us all.The wars in Viet Nam gave power to islam ther,since they have put in one radical islamic gov after another.Even England and us are giving in to them.They don't want to stop the violence.

Thanks to us and the other part of this beast,now islam has taken over the whole middel east and asia.We don't like to admit when our kids are wrong,and that goes for our country too.JUSY MY OPINION OF COURSE.


----------



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

[QUOTE="Meerkat"

Luciferian forces rule though the illuminati.[/QUOTE]

Really? And the illuminati rule through Freemasons? I need to hear this one, let me grab my rocking chair, feeling like it is going to be a long story....


----------



## labouton (Jan 24, 2011)

Meerkat said:


> They have been using the military complex that Eisenhower warned us abvout for decades now.Why do you think they are puttign in radicals in all these nations?So far they have the power to make laws and decisions that will enslave us all.The wars in Viet Nam gave power to islam ther,since they have put in one radical islamic gov after another.Even England and us are giving in to them.They don't want to stop the violence.
> 
> Thanks to us and the other part of this beast,now islam has taken over the whole middel east and asia.We don't like to admit when our kids are wrong,and that goes for our country too.JUSY MY OPINION OF COURSE.


Wait until you see the movie "The Project". I believe it's on Utube. Blows your mind.


----------



## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

Good article on ZH today.

The *overhwelming majority of investors seem to believe that some compromise will be reached* to resolve the looming fiscal drag, and as we noted here, this fact is more than priced into markets. As Barclays notes however, a big deal that encompasses entitlement and tax reform is very unlikely before year-end. Hence, if the 'cliff' is avoided, it will be because Congress extends all expiring provisions for some time while it works on a bigger deal._ Such an 'extension/compromise' move would not reduce investor uncertainty if it were only for a few months; bond markets would simply start counting down to the new date_. More importantly, the discussion about the fiscal cliff misses a broader point: *the US will probably have significant fiscal tightening over the next decade that is a drag on medium-term growth*. Yet more investors dismiss last year's reaction to the debt-ceiling debate - a 17% decline in 2 weeks - as any kind of precedent, claiming (falsely) that this was more due to European financial difficulties. We expect fiscal issues to be the defining drivers of the next several quarters and as BofAML notes, Washington's view of this 'process' as a 'slope' combined with the dangerously negative election campaign (which will need a 180-degree reversal for any compromise) means* the likelihood of a Wile E. Coyote Moment is considerably higher than most expect*.
The S&P 500 plunged by 17% between July 25th and August 8th and between the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling, and the election - uncertainty remains high...


but this was not about Europe (as many prefer to believe) as this chart from Goldman shows

"...positive developments by the ECB narrowed the spread between Spanish and German ten-year bond yields by roughly 100bp (from 380 bp to 290 bp) while S&P 500 fell by 11% during those days, including nearly 7% the day after S&P lowered the US credit rating."

​ and what of compromise or small adjustments?

_*Via BofAML's Ethan Harris: A Wile E. Coyote moment*_
One of the best known moments in US cartoon history is when Wile E. Coyote accidentally runs off a cliff. Initially he remains suspended in air - and for a moment starts to believe he will be okay - but then plunges to the canyon floor. 
*Some in Washington are now contemplating a Wile E. Coyote moment around the fiscal cliff. In their view, the cliff is a fiscal "slope", or "hill." They say, going over the cliff initially has very little impact on the economy*. The IRS could decide not to change tax withholding tables. The Alternative Minimum Tax doesn't need to be paid immediately. Government agencies could spend down their cash balances. Households could draw down their savings. And even if policy does tighten, the fiscal cliff cuts spending and raises taxes by only about $2 billion per day and people will "know" politicians are bluffing. *So what's the harm?*
*In our view, this is a very dangerous way to look at the cliff.* _After a highly negative election campaign, both parties will need to do a painful 180-degree turn and negotiate a series of compromises._ If politicians believe going over the cliff has no real consequences, then they will have little incentive to negotiate as the cliff approaches. Moreover, if the laws of gravity are suspended for weeks or months, why not keep debating after going over the cliff? In our view the end game - the ultimate game of brinkmanship - is a plunge in confidence and markets, and significant damage to the economy. We also believe the Wile E. Coyote moment won't last long; by the time we go over the cliff, the dysfunctional debate in Washington will have already softened up the markets and the economy.
*This reminds us of Summer 2011*
A popular view last summer was that a temporary suspension of 25% of government outlays or a few missed Treasury debt payments was a reasonable price to pay to get a sensible deficit reduction plan. *That didn't work out so well*. Despite a last minute deal, this brinkmanship contributed to a weak stock market, a downgrade of the US credit and then a large 6.66% one-day plunge in the market. In the end, the "sensible deficit reduction plan" that emerged was to add $110bn in across-the-board spending cuts to the fiscal cliff. 
*We can only wonder what would have happened to the markets and economy last summer if they had not reached a last-minute deal.* Unfortunately, there is a growing risk that we could complete that experiment in January. Keep in mind that the stakes are much bigger this time. Last summer they had only the debt ceiling to deal with. This time there is the debt ceiling, the Alternative Minimum Tax ($120bn), tax extenders ($20bn), the Medicare doc fix ($20bn), the payroll tax cut ($120bn), extended unemployment benefits ($40bn), the sequester ($110bn), the Bush tax cuts ($180bn), Obama Care taxes ($20bn) and a number of other expiring programs ($90bn). Two billion dollars per day may not sound like much, but it is more than 4.5% of daily GDP.
*Negotiations should occur before the cliff *
Some of the arguments for going over the cliff are well intended: we do not want to rush into a bad deal. However, *if the US is to avoid a major shock to the economy and markets, we think such negotiations should occur before the cliff arrives or after extending the cliff*. The process matters as much as the outcome.

*Using the cliff as a motivating mechanism would be a major mistake, in our view.*


----------



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Absolutely dead on IMO... My thought we are already to close to start negotiations, especially with a lame duck session occurring between Election Day and Inauguration Day.... The congress will have no choice but to push the date off again...


----------



## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

There's no way they let this happen. In theory the people would hold it against their reps but there a reason they're called sheeple, and congress knows it.


----------



## urbansurvivor (Oct 19, 2012)

what will currency be after a collapse?... pretty much anything you can barter or people need I guess there are levels of collapse that make a difference too stock food then you wont need money or gold learn skills too commerce is all sale of goods or services


----------



## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

*Talk of raising the debt ceiling by another $2T*

Wow, you have to be kidding. In one year, we will have had to raise it by $4T? Out of control.
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/harry-reid-hiking-debt-limit-18794t-we-ll-raise-it


----------



## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

invision said:


> Makes total sense to me... Fail. :nuts:
> 
> http://www.foxbusiness.com/2012/09/21/lawmakers-may-delay-fiscal-cliff-deadlines/


You know you are talking about the same government that claimed to have a surplus in 1999 by counting other peoples money (social security). This is par for the course in DC. I know, I was neck deep in it until the day that a SENIOR republican policy advisor told me, we can never borrow too much money.vract:


----------



## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

US Federal Govt is spending roughly 50% more than they take in from revenue each and ever year.

Current debt is over 10x revenue

Total amount owed is over 100x revenue...

Now what?


----------



## labouton (Jan 24, 2011)

partdeux said:


> US Federal Govt is spending roughly 50% more than they take in from revenue each and ever year.
> 
> Current debt is over 10x revenue
> 
> ...


As Ron Paul said there's nothing that can stop it now. Take a look at Greece, that will be us. All the frivolous spending will have to be stopped. Cut backs all over the place including the Medicaid for able bodied citizens (remember the CC camps), cut out supporting foreign countries, increase the tariffs of US countries that are operating in other countries and the list goes on and on. With our current government, I don't see that ever happening. We're on our own.


----------



## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Sentry18 said:


> That's like putting off you treatment because you don't want to deal with the cancer. Stupid.


Its more like snake venom, the bigger you are the longer it takes to kill you, but it still will...


----------

