# New Deadly Flu



## TraumaHawk2011 (Apr 23, 2012)

A new competitor to H5N1 for world pandemic and dominion

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-04/flu-spreads-through-disability-centres/4176850


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## TraumaHawk2011 (Apr 23, 2012)

Just for the record H5N1 the deadliest ever flu bug is 2 mutations away from world pandemic and society demolition, but while waiting produced 3 derivatives almost as deadly and just on their infancy H5N3, H7N2 and now H3N2. Call me paranoid, but if you read up about any of these.... maybe you can see what I see. Prepare !!!


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

H3N2 flu is the swine flu. It isn't "new". As for being deadly, what the article doesn't mention is that the three people who died already had compromised immune systems.

It is winter/flu season in Australia now. 26% of the people in the entire country that have the flu have the H3N2 variety. There have been thousands of cases of the flu reported in Australia this winter. There is not widespread death.

http://www.influenzaspecialistgroup.org.au/surveillance

Get the facts, not the media hype before you get all excited.


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## TraumaHawk2011 (Apr 23, 2012)

No, the common (formerly also pandemic scare) you speak of is H1N1. This is a swine flu also but a different strain. This one has more potential to be deadly.


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

Three people dying out of 26% of the population is not exactly a deadly flu strain. Get the facts.


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## TraumaHawk2011 (Apr 23, 2012)

Not yet, but things change, for example the H5N1 death rate is sitting between 50-80% not many people have died because the bug as not reached pro level in spreading amongst humans, many experts think its only a couple of mutations of becoming pandemic level. The worst flu on record killed 1% of the worlds population, if the H5N1 goes global even at 50% (its current weakest showing) you can imagine what it would do to the world being 50 times worst than the last worst ever. And 50 it's positive thinking, judging by its behavior it's probably going to be at least in the 70s. This means 7 out of each 10 human would die. Now this swine flu I talk about in this thread is not as lethal as the H5N1 but it's still worse than the worst on record, and it's starting faster and stronger than the H5N1 ever did. Thus my concern. I have studied flu patterns around the works for 3 years, specially the H5N1 and I am a emergency medicine provider. I have the facts, you are just being rude. Don't worry or listen if you don't wish, but that does not make me wrong.


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## Jim1590 (Jul 11, 2012)

You should always be prepared for any type of outbreak. But you should be more concerned about what you should do if you think you are sick or someone close to you is. Know what the symptoms are for the medias disease of the week and know how to differentially diagnose if you have it. Know what the treatments are for it and what precautions to take. Lastly you want to know what you can do to prevent getting it. So far none of these so named super bugs (man made or nature made) have come close to the hype that the main stream media thinks it deserves. Compare the recent flus to the 1918 flu outbreak (which actually killed 3% of the worlds population on the low end)

_"The pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920,[3] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. Between 50 and 130 million died, making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.[1][4][5][6][7] Even using the lower estimate of 50 million people, 3% of the world's population (which was 1.86 billion at the time[8]) died of the disease. Some 500 million, or 27%, were infected."_ (wikipedia)

IF this H5N1 actually makes those mutations and spreads, what exactly do you suppose we do about it? Here is some facts from wikipedia, which while not always correct, usually has enough correct things.

"_According to the FAO Avian Influenza Disease Emergency Situation Update, H5N1 pathogenicity is continuing to gradually rise in endemic areas, but the avian influenza disease situation in farmed birds is being held in check by vaccination. Eleven outbreaks of H5N1 were reported worldwide in June 2008 in five countries (China, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam) compared to 65 outbreaks in June 2006 and 55 in June 2007. The "global HPAI situation can be said to have improved markedly in the first half of 2008 [but] cases of HPAI are still underestimated and underreported in many countries because of limitations in country disease surveillance systems".[3] On October 10, 2011 the WHO announced a total of 566 confirmed human cases which resulted in the deaths of 332 people since 2003.[4]

A filtered and purified influenza A vaccine for humans is being developed, and many countries have recommended it be stockpiled so, if an avian influenza pandemic starts jumping to humans, the vaccine can quickly be administered to avoid loss of life. Avian influenza is sometimes called avian flu, and commonly bird flu.

Research has shown that a highly contagious strain of H5N1, one that might allow airborne transmission between mammals, can be reached in only a few mutations, raising the spectre of a pandemic epidemy in the human population."_

As for the H3N2, it is already well known in medicine and is part of the class of the seasonal flu. Seasonal flu kills 30,000+ in the US each YEAR. So a outbreak causing 5 deaths in a nursing home is nothing. Really it is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Nursing facilities, like hospitals and jails almost always have some sort of contagion going around. Whether it is the flu, a cold, or a GI bug, there is probably at least one skilled nursing facility in your town that has a sign up saying there is a bug. People who reside in these places are usually of compromised immune systems and in poorly ventilated incubation chambers called a room. Why do people in hospitals get staph infections? Because staph is more commonly found in healthcare settings.

If you are concerned, get a flu shot. As long as you are aware of its risks and side effects (if any for you, people are different) then get it if you want. The flu shot is which strain thought to be prevalent in the upcoming flu season (which itself is a misnomer as there is almost always a strain going around) The H3N2 is one of those in the selection pool for the flu shot. Again from wikipedia: 
"_Seasonal influenza kills an estimated 36,000 people in the United States each year. Flu vaccines are based on predicting which "mutants" of H1N1, H3N2, H1N2, and influenza B will proliferate in the next season. Separate vaccines are developed for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in preparation for their annual epidemics. In the tropics, influenza shows no clear seasonality. In the past ten years, H3N2 has tended to dominate in prevalence over H1N1, H1N2, and influenza B. Measured resistance to the standard antiviral drugs amantadine and rimantadine in H3N2 has increased from 1% in 1994 to 12% in 2003 to 91% in 2005_"

Now as for my background with this, I worked 17 years in Emergency Medicine, 5 of which in a major city Level 1 Trauma Facility's ED which can hold 80+ patients in treatment areas. 1992 certified as a Medical Response Technician, 1995 Emergency Medical Technician, 1998 Emergency Medical Technician - Intermediate, 1999 AHA BLS CPR Instructor, 1999 Pre-Hospital Trauma Life Support technician, 2001 Paramedic, 2004 Pre-Hospital Trauma Life Support Instructor, 2008 Paramedic Field Instructor, 2010 retired from Emergency Medicine. 2007-2009 Paramedic Medical Director for a Nascar track for 100,000+ people during 2 race weekends a year, 5 races total. My wife has worked several years in a Skilled Nursing Facility Alzheimer Unit. We got the government memos and briefing every year about the new strains. So TraumaHawk, whats your background other than emergency medicine provider?

Personally, I feel that this is just something that the people in power use to help keep us in check and dependent on the government to make the bad things go away.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

If an epidemic or pandemic does strike quarantining yourself may be necessary until a vaccine is available and/or accessible. How long can we all stay in our homes without having to leave? I know Im preachin to the choir round here but its a question I always try to raise with nonprepper folks and fam. Seems to be a good way to broach the simple month of food subject with folks I care about that dont prep.


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## TraumaHawk2011 (Apr 23, 2012)

JimMadsen said:


> You should always be prepared for any type of outbreak. But you should be more concerned about what you should do if you think you are sick or someone close to you is. Know what the symptoms are for the medias disease of the week and know how to differentially diagnose if you have it. Know what the treatments are for it and what precautions to take. Lastly you want to know what you can do to prevent getting it. So far none of these so named super bugs (man made or nature made) have come close to the hype that the main stream media thinks it deserves. Compare the recent flus to the 1918 flu outbreak (which actually killed 3% of the worlds population on the low end)
> 
> _"The pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920,[3] spreading even to the Arctic and remote Pacific islands. Between 50 and 130 million died, making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.[1][4][5][6][7] Even using the lower estimate of 50 million people, 3% of the world's population (which was 1.86 billion at the time[8]) died of the disease. Some 500 million, or 27%, were infected."_ (wikipedia)
> 
> ...


:surrender: I'm a ARNP on a big city trauma center for the central part of my state. I have a masters degree in nursing and am the disaster commander for my city, FEMA cerified (this one nothing to brag about). I am Portuguese and served in the Portuguese Fuzileiros a special force in the likes of the US Marines. There I was team leader and field medic also for my team, the Fuzileiros do not carry health only staff, but instead have advance field paramedic trained officers in each unit. This is not a pissing contest though, I have studied such bugs in depth for years mainly related to my disaster commander job. You are free to ignore any further posts from me on this subject, but if you want some of my experience in this matter look me up here, this is my favorite (dreaded) subject and I have lots to share. Thanks :crossfinger:


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## TraumaHawk2011 (Apr 23, 2012)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> If an epidemic or pandemic does strike quarantining yourself may be necessary until a vaccine is available and/or accessible. How long can we all stay in our homes without having to leave? I know Im preachin to the choir round here but its a question I always try to raise with nonprepper folks and fam. Seems to be a good way to broach the simple month of food subject with folks I care about that dont prep.





CrackbottomLouis said:


> If an epidemic or pandemic does strike quarantining yourself may be necessary until a vaccine is available and/or accessible. How long can we all stay in our homes without having to leave? I know I'm preaching to the choir round here but it's a question I always try to raise with non-prepper folks and fam. Seems to be a good way to broach the simple month of food subject with folks I care about that don't prep.


I am so glad you asked this; basically what you are asking is how do you survive this right? And that indeed should be the only question that matters. To give you a good answer I have to divide it in two. 1) What to expect from the bug and 2) What you can do. These are the two parties involved so it makes sense to talk about both, right?
1)	The Bug - Let's assume we are talking about the H5N1 (my favorite villain) but it would work for any flu bug. Viruses will mutate at random intervals so it's nearly impossible to pinpoint when the H5N1 will start, it's dubbed to be only 2 mutations away from pandemic level, but a virus can mutate as many as 100 times per year or as little as none. Judging by the bug's mutation pattern one could predict SHTF within the next 4 years at a maximum but as soon as this fall. Flu viruses like mild temperatures so fall and spring are the more likely times for a pandemic. With current travels it's estimated that it would take less than 6 weeks for total global exposure. Flu bugs come in waves, almost always 3 waves per season so once it starts you can expect it to keep coming and mutating to get stronger for about 6 months. The current death rate for H5N1 is between 50% at its lowest, and 85% at its highest. Ebola is 80% (for comparing). Of course that the disease process of the H5N1 and Ebola are very different but they share one important factor, they are rapid killers. Ebola is kept in control because it kills so fast, which means that just in a few days of an outbreak in a village you are either immune or dead. With nowhere else to go to bug dies also. H5N1 will spread more rapidly but with a 6-10 day window of onset of symptoms to death it will also self limit. This means that after the 3 waves, you are either immune and alive or dead. The bug will have nowhere else to go&#8230; 
2)	You - If you don't like to bank on chance or odds and not wait around to find out if you are immune or &#8230;well&#8230;dead, you can quarantine yourself, like you so brilliantly suggested. Things to know are how to quarantine appropriately, supplies, medicines and length of quarantine. 1- Make sure all doors and windows seal appropriately, you should also consider the subsequent social unrest and make sure you strengthen the security of doors and windows also. In this quarantine you need to stay away from all humans that come from the outside, so break-ins would be disastrous. Board up doors and windows should help. On the inside would not hurt to use heavy plastic sheets to cover windows and doors (but keep in mind you could have to leave in a hurry in case of a fire so make it so that removal is easy. 2- sick room, you should have a room designated to harbor any of your family that get sick. This room should be stocked with everything you need, food, water, medicines and fluids so that you keep the ins and outs to a minimum. These rooms should be sealed off from the rest of the house in the same fashion that you sealed the outside windows and doors. After contact with sick person you need to shower head to toe and put on new garments and sanitize the soiled ones. Gown, Goggles, Mask and Gloves are a MUST for every contact. Mask at a minimum should be a N95. Weapons to protect you family is a must, get them, practice with them and be mentally prepared to use them. Remember that you don't need to be shot or stabbed but if you let anyone in you might be contaminated. You should stock food and water for at least 6-9 months so you can outlive the waves. Once the waves are over it should be safe to come out and start a new life in a new world. Medicines you should keep are antipyretics preferably ibuprofen or toradol, and antibiotics. I know antibiotics are harder to come by because they are not over the counter but you can get pets or fish antibiotics which are exactly the same. I can be more specific about all the drugs later. If someone gets sick keep them in the sick room, antipyretics and respiratory antibiotics will help the most (viruses cannot be killed by antibiotics but the H5N1 shuts down our respiratory system defenses that allow for opportunistic bacteria to attack, most deaths resulting of H5N1 actually resulted from secondary bacterial infection, thus the antibiotics can save lives here). Then the single most important life saving measure is fluids and plenty of them, knowing how to start and IV and keeping IV fluids (Lactated Ringers being the best for this purpose) would be the best, but Gatorade and other electrolyte replacement drinks as well as ensure and ensure clear will do just as well. There is another option when mass fluids are needed which is per rectum, but I will talk more about this later too.
Anyway, this is not all of it, but just something to get you started. Don't be afraid to ask, I will be honored to answer any questions. Thanks!


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## Jim1590 (Jul 11, 2012)

Trauma, your last post was much better than the preceding ones. You talked about who you were and what your training level is. Your recommendations are also good for an airborne disease, but may be extreme for a less virulent form. Of course seeing how the airborne ones are your favorite topic, that makes sense.

I would say also get Tylenol for anti-pyretic as pregnant women cannot do the ibuprofen but really, just stock what you take normally for fevers. Aspirin is also good but can kick off asthma attacks in kids. There are already several topics about getting antibiotics, any particular you would suggest? The gatorade (or powerade) will work but I would suggest alternating it with water as they both have high salt levels and the last thing you want is to overload your body with Na, have your kidneys stop holding it and peeing it all out!

Most people would find it unrealistic to stock enough food for the better part of a year inside their house without ever opening the door. And you will never seal off all the openings into your abode. To do that would also seal off the air exchange. And wouldn't sick house syndrome come into play?
There are things that can be done but you would basically have to enclose your house like in the movie ET with airlocks and everything to be cut off.

You can also look into protective clothing and mask. Probably a simple tyvek suit with n95 respirators would work. But word of caution, wear the mask long enough and your oxygen levels may drop some causing you to feel lightheaded.

If people want to see what can actually happen, check out Contagion with Matt Damon in it. http://contagionmovie.warnerbros.com/dvd/ pretty realistic in most aspects me thinks.
I am curious where those death rates are coming from with the H5N1, can you put up the studies? And if people really want to read about Ebola, get the book "The Hot Zone" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone just be warned, it has been sitting on my shelf since middle school, and I can't seem to want to read it again just yet.

Viruses are scary things and I really do not see any realistic way to be completely safe from them without the proper equipment and training. Except for complete isolation. And that may in no way be practical, after all can you go for that prolonged time without spending time harvesting your garden?


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

All that is a good start. I have a military j list suit and mask. If you do have to go outside a spray bottle with bleach solution is a good idea to sanitize between outside and sick rooms. I am a nursing student, was military, and this is an area of interest. I have a few basic ideas but any new suggestions to file away in my brain would be appreciated. Seems to me knowledge about the disease would be necessary. Incubation period of the particular strain would be good to know. I suppose you could base knowledge by comparing to know strains but that may not be accurate for the new and improved version. Also important to know how communicable through what avenues. IE respiratory droplets, fomites, etc. If power goes down comms would be priceless in my opinion. You are right about defense. I believe the human panic factor would be insane in this type of situation.
I have seen the movie. Took my folks to see it to get them thinking about what they would need to do to live in their home without leaving for a short duration.


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## Jim1590 (Jul 11, 2012)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> Took my folks to see it to get them thinking about what they would need to do to live in their home without living for a short duration.


Its possible to not live for a short duration? Cool! :2thumb:


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

JimMadsen said:


> Its possible to not live for a short duration? Cool! :2thumb:


Darn voice recognition! Fixed it thanks.


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## truecarnage (Apr 25, 2010)

I have no medical background, so my question is would a good respirator from home depot or something like that work against airborne influenza?
I saw lots wearing these little white paper mask last time there was an issue.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

truecarnage said:


> I have no medical background, so my question is would a good respirator from home depot or something like that work against airborne influenza?
> I saw lots wearing these little white paper mask last time there was an issue.


Viruses are small enough to pass through things like that.


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## truecarnage (Apr 25, 2010)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> Viruses are small enough to pass through things like that.


Thanks for the good info, I think


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> Viruses are small enough to pass through things like that.


Since we won't have the technology to produce nanometer filters until a few more 'tech generations', viruses pass through almost anything.

How many people, besides BunkerBob, have an independent air supply?


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

Not me. Hoping quietly keeping my distance works. Think Ill need a few more books to pass the time. I end up reading my stash too often. I dont think there is a completely safe answer within my means. Guess Ill have to make do. As long as I dont advertise a presence and the water stays on I could be fine for a good while if people dont come knockin. If they do I guess its bug out time. Not a pleasant thought in the middle of an epidemic but oh well.


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## Jim1590 (Jul 11, 2012)

The dust mask just makes you feel secure while inviting the germs in. The standard in healthcare for general disposable use is a N95 mask which means it should (when used correctly) filter out 95% of the particles you are breathing in. It is NOT foolproof in its use or effectiveness.

http://www.amazon.com/3M-1860-Medic..._1?ie=UTF8&qid=1344201051&sr=8-1&keywords=n95

Make sure you get something for healthcare. It DOES need to be fitted if you expect it to actually work as intended. A fly by night testing would be something like put the mask on and if you are a non-smoker, walk up to someone who lights up in front of you and blows the smoke onto your face, making sure to get smoke around all the edges and the middle while you read a nursery rhyme out loud for 30 seconds minimum. If you can taste the smoke, wrong size. I make NO ASSURANCES THAT YOU WILL BE PROPERLY FIT TESTED FOLLOWING MY ADVICE. If you have facial hair, you will probably fail the test. They are one time use only and any damage to them may destroy their ability to filter. Also prolonged use (maybe even 15 minutes) can decrease your oxygen levels because you are working harder at breathing. So grandpa with the COPD or CHF should not even think about wearing this. For that matter even asthmatics should be concerned (although they are oxygen retainers, may still have a problem.) That is why healthcare providers wear the mask and not their victim, er I mean patients. 

Distance works best, or just hope you never have to worry about it. Unless there is something on the military side for MOPP gear?????


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

Wearing mopp gear for an extended period of time sucks but in that situation having it would be great. If we do end up in mopp gear I hope its winter.


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## Jim1590 (Jul 11, 2012)

Shortly after 9/11 the company I worked at then got a whole boat load of heavy duty isolation kits for chemical and biological warfare. The boxes all had expiration dates on them, which makes sense. One of my co-workers said "I hope we can use them all before they expire."

We never looked at him the same after that.....

Winter would be good because deep cold could slow down, if not kill a bug.


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

Blah blah blah

Vaccinations

Blah blah blah


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

I am only talking in the context of a world wide pandemic killing off a large percentage of the population. Not trying to get a vaccination discussion goin.


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

JimMadsen said:


> Winter would be good because deep cold could slow down, if not kill a bug.


:scratch  ... except for that warm moist INTERIOR of a human being! :gaah:

You're not dead until you're WARM and dead, the same thing can be said for microbes, which are much hardier.


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> I am only talking in the context of a world wide pandemic killing off a large percentage of the population. Not trying to get a vaccination discussion goin.


Flu pandemics are mostly created press around getting the vaccine. When you look at the actual data, it's really not a big deal. And things like the swine flu, the vaccine killed more people than the actual disease. HN1N was a non event. CDC directed medical personnel to stop testing for it fairly early in the flu season. Why, because the numbers were extremely low.

But, there will be another pandemic or crisis around the corner

The sky is falling


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

partdeux said:


> Flu pandemics are mostly created press around getting the vaccine. When you look at the actual data, it's really not a big deal. And things like the swine flu, the vaccine killed more people than the actual disease. HN1N was a non event. CDC directed medical personnel to stop testing for it fairly early in the flu season. Why, because the numbers were extremely low.
> 
> But, there will be another pandemic or crisis around the corner
> 
> The sky is falling


A pandemic could happen at any time. Its less the disease Im worried about than the panic of the populace. The flu pandemic of 1918 killed about 1% of the population if my number is approximately correct. Sad as it would be it is still a drop in the bucket compared to world population. The panic created would probably be deadlier than the virus itself. Unless something particularly nasty mutates to where it could spread easily.


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