# Wanted to buy silver... But it keeps dropping!



## invision

Went out to look at silver today and the prices just keep dropping, below $19 right now... Can it hit $17??? Or lower???


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## Tacitus

Wow. I will buy some tomorrow morning. Big drop at end of day. (Image may change in the future if people are reading this post days later.)

If it drops again, I'll just buy more.


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## Grimm

I've been waiting for a drop like this to buy in bulk...


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## Tweto

I don't think that this is the bottom for PM's.


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## BillS

One of these days it's going back up. I'd buy it now while it's so cheap. If I had the extra money I'd buy it today. Regardless of what it might be tomorrow. We're going to see $100 silver in the next year or two. It won't matter much if you bought it at $19 or $16.


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## Tweto

Just reported on CNBC that gold is having it's worst quarter in the past 100 years. After hearing this I started to think that something really huge is going on now and I think it includes more then just PM's Could this be an indication of things to come!

I heard that the market crashes within 30-90 days after gold dumps and that this a historical thing going back also 100 years.

This is not my opinion, this is just what I'm hearing. My opinion is that I don't know what will happen.


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## invision

Tweto said:


> I heard that the market crashes within 30-90 days after gold dumps and that this a historical thing going back also 100 years.
> 
> This is not my opinion, this is just what I'm hearing. My opinion is that I don't know what will happen.


Can you provide some articles that support that historically 30-90 days after Gold Price dumps that markets crash... You got me curious and I am not haivng success looking up historical data right now..


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## alwaysready

invision said:


> Can you provide some articles that support that historically 30-90 days after Gold Price dumps that markets crash... You got me curious and I am not haivng success looking up historical data right now..


Same here also could you post a link? Thanks


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## Tacitus

I would think that if people saw a market crash coming, they would buy gold, not dump it.


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## partdeux

Tacitus said:


> I would think that if people saw a market crash coming, they would buy gold, not dump it.


unless big dollars were manipulating the market for some undefined self serving benefit...


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## DKRinAK

To see how gold has played in the past, one must look at the past -

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html

A long read and some will argue that bits of the piece aren't quite right - it does represent the current thinking as far as Gov't monetary policy. It explains, for example, why the Fed pour trillions down the black hole of Big Banks. A good place to start if you slept thru history class.


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## Woody

partdeux said:


> unless big dollars were manipulating the market for some undefined self serving benefit...


The man wins a cupie doll!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/chinese-banks-stop-lending-due-liquidity-freeze

You would also think that with the shortages of phsical PM's the price would be going up also, supply and demand. But, the prices keep falling. Nothing is as it seems.


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## hiwall

There is so much stuff happening right now. I think your window to buy PM's is maybe from now to about September. This is my opinion based on my experience as a farm boy( probably as good of credentials as any other). Anyone can guess.


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## invision

DKRinAK said:


> To see how gold has played in the past, one must look at the past -
> .


Thanks for the link, I will read it...

I found a chart that shows Gold pricing since 1833, pretty much before 1973 Gold was more a fixed price set by the governmment compared to the open markets of today... aren't I correct? Even still, from 1833 to 1934 Gold didn't fluctuate much more than a buck or two max... http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf

So if this PDF is correct, then actual gold prices stayed within $1 prior to the lead up of the GD, and stayed at $1+/- during the whol GP timeframe... Now, looking at 2001 timeframe - the tech bubble... Gold prices didn't take any hits proir to the market crash - with the DJIA went from 11.3 to 8.2 - and gold did nothing prior to DJIA in 2009 when it went from 13.0 to 7.2 - Gold was steady there to leading up to both of those market adjustments.

So I just don't see how predicting the fall of PMs - 30-90 days later the market crashes...


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## cowboyhermit

When looking at the price of gold in dollars it can be very difficult to track it's value, for instance by inflating the currency the "price" of gold in terms of the currency will go up. This obviously doesn't mean that gold has gone up in value, there could be less demand and more supply and yet the price in said currency may still rise. When looking at numbers from when the gold/silver standards existed it is Very important to remember that those numbers were set by the government.


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## Tweto

invision said:


> Can you provide some articles that support that historically 30-90 days after Gold Price dumps that markets crash... You got me curious and I am not haivng success looking up historical data right now..


The first time I heard about the market crashing after gold dumping was on a Harry Dent's you tube video that was recorded this spring titled "Deflation VS inflation" by future money trends. I was curious if Harry knew anything or was he as full of it and then I stumbled across an article about gold prices that said that same thing. I'm an habitual internet surfer and some times stumble across stuff and then can never get back to the same thing again.

I would spend some time looking for the article but I had several trees go down in a wind storm 2 days ago and am still trying to clean up the mess and it's taking all my time.


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## BillS

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GoldStandard.html

As mentioned, the great virtue of the gold standard was that it assured long-term price stability. Compare the aforementioned average annual inflation rate of 0.1 percent between 1880 and 1914 with the average of 4.1 percent between 1946 and 2003. (The reason for excluding the period from 1914 to 1946 is that it was neither a period of the classical gold standard nor a period during which governments understood how to manage monetary policy.)


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## cowboyhermit

BillS said:


> nor a period during which governments understood how to manage monetary policy.)


Governments have never understood how to "manage" monetary policy and they never will, that's the "fatal conceit"


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## LincTex

BillS said:


> One of these days it's going back up. I'd buy it now while it's so cheap.


Correct. 
Once it starts to climb it will climb quick - and you may find out that none will be available to buy (at any price) when the climb starts picking up speed.

I, too, remember reading/hearing that PM's will fall a LOT right before we see a big dollar crash. I thought it to be a weird concept as well...... now I am thinking it may very well be true. Someone's definitely pulling some strings!


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## UncleJoe

http://www.goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1323016

This deals mostly with gold but there is some analysis on silver. It was posted 6-20-13 but it's far too long to post here. Besides that, it mostly deals with gold. So here is the abridged version.

*Silver Chart*

The break in silver has next support in the 18.50 (_which was broke today_) area and the lower line at 14.00. It takes a close back above 23 to relieve pressure.

A second view of silver on a weekly chart shows if 18 area doesn't hold the next target is 14 area.

Now compare this analysis with an historical chart.


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## haley4217

partdeux said:


> unless big dollars were manipulating the market for some undefined self serving benefit...


Manipulation? Let's see the GDP is restated downward today and consumer spending came down (economy is worse than expected), the talking heads of Wall Street look at this as being positive because this may mean the FED will continue buying bonds.

This is on top of a "soft" bond sale where the "Direct Bidders" only took 3.6% of the sale down from 17.1% over the last four months. This is on top of investors taking 61.7 Billion $ out of bond funds through Monday of this month.

So, economy is bad, bond sales are "soft" (new word for bad). Yields on US bonds are falling slightly which should make them less attractive to investors, but this is all good news.

Manipulation? The good news for investors is that the economy is bad so the FED may have to continue to inject more money into the economy to "jump start" it. This is good so stocks go up while gold and silver go down.

I realize now that I've been looking at this wrong all this time, I thought a strong economy signaled growth in the stock market and thus a strong dollar. If the reverse works then 1.02 trillion in new debt (85 billion a month for 12 months) ought to put the stock market to over 20,000 and bring the price of gold down to $100 an ounce. Guess I need to sell some bricks of 22 shells and get back in the market. Yah Sure! :gaah:


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## Immolatus

And thats the crazy world we live in. All indicators of a bad economy, but if the F3D keeps buying, then its all good in the market?
Soon enough only they and pension funds will be buying bonds all over the world? What happens then when its all just a big circle jerk where those that print the money buy the debt of their respective countries? I guess nothing? This could really continue for a looong time, no? Its already going on here, in the EU and Japan, it can only be some outside force that stops it, no?

Whatever I just said, I'll still be buying. I have also come to the realization that pm bugs have a cult mentality, and I am deep into it.
Anyone read Screwtape files? Seems like theyre bugs also, but much more grounded than ZH, and I loves me some ZH.


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## FrankW

Looks like i should have waited to buy.
Lost maybe a grand or two in the last 6 weeks.

It will go up though.
Dont want to buy more just yet


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## Tacitus

Today I bought some Walking Liberty Half-Dollars, Standing Liberty Quarters, and Mercury Dimes.

Very worn, to be sure. Some would call them "junk silver." Actually, I would call them that.

But whatever the price does after today, they look cool, they are are a part of history, and their silver content is guaranteed by the US government (from a time when a US government guarantee meant something).




























...from back when they knew how to make coins!


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## CulexPipiens

BlueZ said:


> Looks like i should have waited to buy.
> Lost maybe a grand or two in the last 6 weeks.
> 
> It will go up though.
> Dont want to buy more just yet


Another way to look at it... until you sell, you have lost nothing. If the prices goes up you still have made nothing too... unless you sell at that point. And if you're going to do quick trades you're probably better off playing with ETFs. Most people going with gold and silver are buying physical with the intent of a long term play and/or presevation/protection of wealth, for anyone doing this, each price drop simply becomes another opportunity to acquire even more.


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## Immolatus

Yeah Fred, and were 'young' enough to wait all this out, remember?


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## lazydaisy67

Tacitus said:


> Today I bought some Walking Liberty Half-Dollars, Standing Liberty Quarters, and Mercury Dimes.
> 
> Very worn, to be sure. Some would call them "junk silver." Actually, I would call them that.
> 
> But whatever the price does after today, they look cool, they are are a part of history, and their silver content is guaranteed by the US government (from a time when a US government guarantee meant something).
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> ...from back when they knew how to make coins!


Show me the site. I want some too1


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## Tacitus

lazydaisy67 said:


> Show me the site. I want some too1


LazyDaisy, I bought them locally at a coin shop. I don't buy online. If the cost stays at current levels, or drops again, I will buy again soon.

The coin shop has all kinds of spectacular coins for collectors. But I pass by the "collector silver," and I go straight for the "junk silver" which is US silver coins that have been in circulation. The coins are usually worn down, and I suppose someone could argue that they have lost some silver value due to being worn down, but they are well recognizable as US silver coins. You can buy them in "bulk"...that is, in bags of dollar denominations (e.g., a dollar bag of 10 dimes, or a two dollar bag of 8 quarters, etc.). You get a mix of coins (e.g., not all Mercury dimes). That's just how the local store does it.

I also occasionally look at the Silver Eagles they have, which are more pure, and still somewhat recognizable. I don't buy the oddball coins, because I'm not sure what value I may get back for them in a SHTF situation.

Who knows, but in a SHTF situation, I figure I might be able to get something on the order of "silver value" (whatever that may be), but it is unlikely I will get a "collector premium value" if the SHTF. Regardless, I don't think I will get _anything_ unless the person I am dealing with recognizes the coins. So, I buy silver people are more likely to recognize and have some faith in.


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## BillS

lazydaisy67 said:


> Show me the site. I want some too1


You can get them here:

http://www.providentmetals.com/coins/us-silver-coins/coin-90-silver-us-junk.html

By the way, you'll get dimes if you buy the dealer's choice because nobody has quarters anymore. Most of the dimes are Liberty dimes. They still have Walking Liberty halves.


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## LincTex

Tacitus said:


> Regardless, I don't think I will get anything unless the person I am dealing with recognizes the coins. So, I buy silver people are more likely to recognize and have some faith in.


That is what most people typically agree on.

Did you see the video of the guy in California trying to sell a one ounce Canadian Gold Maple for $500 to passersby - - and NO ONE would take him up on it? I laughed the whole way through (so did he). It was made a couple years ago when gold was at $1200.



BillS said:


> By the way, you'll get dimes if you buy the dealer's choice because nobody has quarters anymore.


Dimes would be preferable for making small transactions anyway. When junk silver was $25 per face value, junk dimes were worth $2.50 each! (quarters were around $6)

It will go that high again............ and then some.


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## partdeux

I stopped by a local jewelry store attempting to buy some "junk" coins. All of his stuff is "collectible" coins, like the silver eagle for $135


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## Gravlore

The equation is simple. The FED says it will end its 85 Billion dollar per month purchases and the PM cost goes down. If you believe this will happen then hold off on PM's as they will dive further when they actually do scale back. If you think the FED is full of crap and will continue its easing then buy anytime before it is mentioned they cant scale back as planned. Gold and Silver require massive easing in order to keep an elevated price.


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## LongRider

Keep in mind while PM's prices may fall and rise their purchasing power remains stable. So while you may save a little buying when it is low it will stabilize. Its real value is down the road, as a way to preserve wealth. An ounce of PM will buy the same thing in 30 years that it will buy today.


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## Marcus

Gravlore said:


> The equation is simple. The FED says it will end its 85 Billion dollar per month purchases and the PM cost goes down. If you believe this will happen then hold off on PM's as they will dive further when they actually do scale back. If you think the FED is full of crap and will continue its easing then buy anytime before it is mentioned they cant scale back as planned. Gold and Silver require massive easing in order to keep an elevated price.


There is a huge difference between physical and paper PMs. One requires the expenditure of resources to produce while the other merely requires a few clicks of a mouse button to create.

With prices where they are today, miners are not going to dig up ore to sell it at below their cost. So supply will drop as marginal mines are mothballed.

Note: I realize that gold and silver production is mostly a by-product of other metal mining (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_mining). So in reality, other metal prices (such as copper and zinc) will control how much PMs are processed. Copper is down (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html) significantly over the last 6, 12, and 60 months. Lead is flat to down over the same time frame as is Nickel and Zinc. So production will be muted for PMs.

I will also point out that summer months are normally soft periods for prices in PMs.

One thing no one ever mentions is the endgame for all the QE the last 5 years. If the Fed stops buying, they'll still have trillions of dollars worth of bonds on their balance sheet. So what will they do with it?

1. They will hold the bonds to maturity. Possible IMHO
2. They will sell the bonds at some point in the marketplace. Unlikely IMHO
3. They will get creative. More likely IMHO

How can they get creative and rid themselves of the bonds?
The Fed could reduce the interest they pay on excess reserves (.25%) in an effort to get banks to purchase their bond holdings. Or they can simply raise the overnight rate (currently 0%.) I feel at some point that the Fed will try to offload their holdings to those banks who benefited from the injections of liquidity during the crisis. It makes sense since those entities were the cause of the problem in the first place. It won't be done quickly though and will probably take decades to complete. So their choice may end up being a hybrid of #1 & #3.


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## Tacitus

LincTex said:


> Did you see the video of the guy in California trying to sell a one ounce Canadian Gold Maple for $500 to passersby - - and NO ONE would take him up on it? I laughed the whole way through (so did he). It was made a couple years ago when gold was at $1200.


I haven't seen the video, but I bet it was funny. I do have to admit, though, that I would have been worried about getting scammed, too. One principle that I live by is this: Never try to get something for nothing. That means I might miss out on a $1200 gold piece for $500. But it also means I will miss out on spending $500 on a fake gold piece worth $5. I think the latter opportunity (the scam) comes along more often than the former opportunity, so I think I am better off _in the long run_ backing away from "too good to be true" deals.



LincTex said:


> Dimes would be preferable for making small transactions anyway. When junk silver was $25 per face value, junk dimes were worth $2.50 each! (quarters were around $6)
> 
> It will go that high again............ and then some.


Agreed. Dimes are best. I couldn't pass up the walking/standing liberty quarters/half-dollars, though. I didn't have any.


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## LongRider

Tacitus said:


> Agreed. Dimes are best. I couldn't pass up the walking/standing liberty quarters/half-dollars, though. I didn't have any.


Pretty much true across the board. For SHTF and to preserve wealth small denomination PM coins are the best value. Maples, eagles et all are best left to collectors, as their value is based upon other criteria than the value of the PM, which will be irrelevant in a SHTF or monetary collapse scenario. Also remember collectors coins bullion sales over 20K must be reported


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## FrankW

LongRider said:


> . Maples, eagles et all are best left to collectors,


I dont understand this statement.

Are you referring to some specials colelctors coins of that name?

Becaus eSIlver Egales and Canadian maples are freely traded for teir bullion value.

Ok Eagles have a bit more of a premium over spot since they are the biggest name but maples can be had sometime for only 1.5 over spot.


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## LincTex

BlueZ said:


> I don't understand this statement.


The numismatic value of a coin is always portrayed as higher than actual by the holder; that is how they intend to make a profit during a sale.

In some extremes.....


partdeux said:


> All of his stuff is "collectible" coins, like the silver eagle for $135


...people get carried away with what they assume the value should be.

Such as things may be post-SHTF. People with mint condition "collectible" coins will attempt to sway the purchase/barter in their favor by extolling the virtues of the status of said minted coin. I see it at estate sales and on eBay, people will pay more for certain coins simply because they are perceived as worth more.

I would NOT, however bank on that perception when trying to use prestigious minted coins as money in post-SHTF. I would view them for their PM content and nothing more, no matter what the fancy "commemorative" ad stated when they bought them.


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## invision

LincTex said:


> I would NOT, however bank on that perception when trying to use prestigious minted coins as money in post-SHTF. I would view them for their PM content and nothing more, no matter what the fancy "commemorative" ad stated when they bought them.


Absolutely true... However the thought that smaller denominations is best, and ASE or CMs are not... I agree to an extent... But still see having larger coins as a part of my preps as important as small items... Let's say in p-SHTF world, I want to buy part of a slaughtered Steer at barter market... Dealer wants 3oz of silver for 1/4 of the steer... (am making this up, could be double that)... Are you going to pay out 30+ dimes or pull out 3 ASEs? Same could be said for some bigger items - a horse, cow, a replacement barrel for a gun...


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## haley4217

LincTex said:


> The numismatic value of a coin is always portrayed as higher than actual by the holder; that is how they intend to make a profit during a sale.
> 
> In some extremes........people get carried away with what they assume the value should be.


Isn't that the truth.. Looking for deals on silver on Ebay, I found a seller who had a roll of junk 40% Kennedy halves priced at a competitive price. I went and looked at the rest of his auctions and found yet another roll of 40% Kennedy halves that he classified as "BU" and thus set the sell price for them at about 3X the price for the "junk" roll. You see this also in even large bulk listings of coins where the perception of numismatic collection value drives the price for the silver coins through the roof.

Another quick point here, I also look for deals on some foreign coins. Usually limiting them to Mexican Silver Peso's and Mexican Gold 2 and 2 1/2 peso coins. The reason I like the Mexican Silver Peso's is that they have the silver content stamped on the face of the coin (pre-60's coins). Also the 2 and 2 1/2 gold pesos are attractive to me for two reasons. One, their gold content makes them worth less than $100 in metal value and two they are widely used in jewelry so if a confiscation were to take place they can become jewelry.


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## LincTex

invision said:


> Dealer wants 3oz of silver for 1/4 of the steer... (am making this up, could be double that)... Are you going to pay out 30+ dimes or pull out 3 ASEs? Same could be said for some bigger items - a horse, cow, a replacement barrel for a gun...


Only if that person will accept them. 
If everyone pays them with bars/rounds, they may be "bar/round heavy" and would prefer/like to have some smaller denominations.


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## Tacitus

Whoa. Spot silver is up a dollar this morning (from $18.60 to $19.60).


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## LincTex

Tacitus said:


> Whoa. Spot silver is up a dollar this morning (from $18.60 to $19.60).


ZOIKS!! Hang on, here it goes!!

Anyone else notice the mortgage rate jumped 1/2% in one week?!?!!??!


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## LincTex

APMEX is showing up $0.96 today as I type this!


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## hiwall

> Anyone else notice the mortgage rate jumped 1/2% in one week?


I did and it is a BIG deal.


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## BillS

invision said:


> Absolutely true... However the thought that smaller denominations is best, and ASE or CMs are not... I agree to an extent... But still see having larger coins as a part of my preps as important as small items... Let's say in p-SHTF world, I want to buy part of a slaughtered Steer at barter market... Dealer wants 3oz of silver for 1/4 of the steer... (am making this up, could be double that)... Are you going to pay out 30+ dimes or pull out 3 ASEs? Same could be said for some bigger items - a horse, cow, a replacement barrel for a gun...


I wouldn't have a problem pulling out 30+ dimes. I don't think the seller would have a problem with them either. Now if it's 300 dimes that could be a problem. Right now a dime is worth about $1.40 and a 1/10 oz gold coin goes for as little as $139. So to keep it simple, a 1/10 oz gold coin is worth 100 dimes. It would make sense to add some of those to your PM's.


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## cowboyhermit

It sure is frustrating that our governments have made it so difficult to use alternative currency. The problems of what size of coin is nothing new, that's why very rarely was only one medal employed, from the very first coins there were copper, silver, gold, etc. because let's face it buying 100 acres of land or a house takes a LOT of silver coins. I like gold a lot, historically it has everything going for it, unfortunately there is currently no easy answer to using it for trade imo.


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## LongRider

BlueZ said:


> I dont understand this statement.


I think the replies to your post pretty much cover it. If you can get Maple leafs, American Eagles or whatever at their true PM value excellent go for it, I do. My point was not to waste your money on collector coins, if you goal is to preserve your wealth and purchasing power no matter what happens in the economy.



BlueZ said:


> Ok Eagles have a bit more of a premium over spot since they are the biggest name but maples can be had sometime for only 1.5 over spot.


To me even a bit more is a waste. I look to save money not pay extra. If you are OK with paying a bit more so that you can have a bright shiny coin to make your purchases with fine go for it. I suspect that most would to prefer to have as much spending power as possible for as little as possible.



LincTex said:


> The numismatic value of a coin is always portrayed as higher than actual by the holder; that is how they intend to make a profit during a sale.
> 
> In some extremes.....
> 
> ...people get carried away with what they assume the value should be.
> 
> Such as things may be post-SHTF. People with mint condition "collectible" coins will attempt to sway the purchase/barter in their favor by extolling the virtues of the status of said minted coin. I see it at estate sales and on eBay, people will pay more for certain coins simply because they are perceived as worth more.
> 
> I would NOT, however bank on that perception when trying to use prestigious minted coins as money in post-SHTF. I would view them for their PM content and nothing more, no matter what the fancy "commemorative" ad stated when they bought them.


Exactly, my point. Well said thank you



invision said:


> Are you going to pay out 30+ dimes or pull out 3 ASEs? Same could be said for some bigger items - a horse, cow, a replacement barrel for a gun...


When the Three ASE's cost me 10%, 20%, 100% , 200% or more than the thirty dimes I won't even have the ASE's. As I said if you can get Maple Leafs, American Eagles whatever at PM base value and not inflated for the collector coin value go for it. I do. Keeping in mind that I need to limit the value of any single purchase lest I undermine part of the reason that I am buy PMs. Which is to keep the guberment out of my business.


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## FrankW

LongRider said:


> I think the replies to your post pretty much cover it. If you can get Maple leafs, American Eagles or whatever at their true PM value excellent go for it, I do. My point was not to waste you money on collector coins, if you goal is to preserve your wealth and purchasing power no matter what happens in the economy.
> 
> To me even a bit more is a waste. I look to save money not pay extra. If you are OK with paying a bit more so that you can have a bright shiny coin to make your purchases with fine go for it. I suspect that most would to prefer to have as much spending power as possible for as little as possible.
> 
> Exactly, my point. Well said thank you
> 
> When the Three ASE's cost me 10%, 20%, 100% , 200% or more than the thirty dimes I won't even have the ASE's. As I said if you can get Maple Leafs, American Eagles whatever at PM base value and not inflated for the collector coin value go for it. I do. Keeping in mind that I need to limit the value of any single purchase lest I undermine part of the reason that I am buy PMs. Which is to keep the guberment out of my business.


Maples , Eagles etc , none of them are collector coins in_ any wa_y, they are Bullion, used by investors and preppers.

Sir, I simply dont understand why you keep referring to them as "collector coins".

Do you think of them as in rare coins from rare runs decades ago that go for 2-3 or even 10 times spot???
Those are collector coins...but the 2012/2013 etc coins we buy are not.

The Eagles and Maples, other site members regularily buy are Bullion, no more no less.
And they only go for alittle over spot.
And that extra , there is a reason for it.

The premium (sometimes small sometimes not so small) you pay above spot is because someone took the time to buy raw silver at melt value , and mint it into convinient coins that are promised ot be a certain weight.
You cannott expect to pay melt value for minted coins 

This gives a great value to me as a buyer as I would get more convince and acceptability, than if I run around with a big 1000 oz bar of silver an axe and a scale.

Small silver bars BTW also have a markup over spot.

You will always pay a markup over spot (unless you buy a $50000 Bar) and the degree is determined by the acceptance level of the resulting item and how small its denomination is.

A 1000 oz bar of silver is a lot cheaper to make than 1000 1oz coins.
these 1000 coins are much more convenient to use as emergency currency and will have much greater acceptance than random slivers of a big bar.
That has nothing to do with "collector value" and _everything to do with practicality and your ability to convince people that what u offer is real and accurate._

If you are a wealthy investor feel free to buy 1000 oz bars but you cant buy groceries with them.
During SHTF then you'll wind up getting them cut up anyway at much lesser acceptance, than a coin from an established mint would have

Having Bullion in convenient and assayed sizes (ie minted) is a extremely valuable fetaure, that you get back on resale why do you think the ancients started to mint coins out of PMs?

Its a lot easier/faster for me to resell 1000 eagles to JM Bullion than it is a 1000 oz bar AND I will get a couple extra grand for it.

Call them and ask them what they "buy" rate is for those 2 situations.

And you will get that value back when you use them and/or sell them as they generally command most of the premium back on resale.

Even Rounds are better than large bars or junk silver, again for the same reasons tho since the mints of rounds are private they will command a bit less over spot than something minted by a gov't mint)

Coins, rounds and low denomination bars are simply a different form of Bullion and have no intrinsic collector value of any kind and I dont think anyone expects them to.

trying to sell junk silver or 1000 oz silver bars you will get back significantly less per oz than from minted silver , you will only get melt value unlike with coins when you get spot + X.

If on resale you get the same price per ounce for minted silver coins that you do for junk silver or 1000 oz bar then something is wrong with your negotiation technique.
The point is whatever the premium you pay for minted silver over junk or bars you get most of it back on resale, PLUS your resale is faster and easier.

Even I as a prepper am unsure what value I should give certain junk silver.
What use is something as emergency currency is most people dont appreciate its worth?

But everyone can appreciate a minted troy ounce of pure silver!

And try to convince Joe Schmo gas station owner, 10 days into SHTF to give you a tank of gas for a couple oz of junk silver or for a freshly cut 2 oz slice of a 1000 oz bar and see what happens.

But give him 2 or 3 Silver Eagles (or maples, or Buffaloes etc) and you will very likely drive away with a full tank of gas.


----------



## BillS

BlueZ said:


> Maples , Eagles etc , none of them are collector coins in_ any wa_y, they are Bullion, used by investors and preppers.
> 
> Sir, I simply dont understand why you keep referring to them as "collector coins".
> 
> Do you think of them as in rare coins from rare runs decades ago that go for 2-3 or even 10 times spot???
> Those are collector coins...but the 2012/2013 etc coins we buy are not.
> 
> The Eagles and Maples, other site members regularily buy are Bullion, no more no less.
> And they only go for alittle over spot.
> And that extra , there is a reason for it.
> 
> The premium (sometimes small sometimes not so small) you pay above spot is because someone took the time to buy raw silver at melt value , and mint it into convinient coins that are promised ot be a certain weight.
> You cannott expect to pay melt value for minted coins
> 
> This gives a great value to me as a buyer as I would get more convince and acceptability, than if I run around with a big 1000 oz bar of silver an axe and a scale.
> 
> Small silver bars BTW also have a markup over spot.
> 
> You will always pay a markup over spot (unless you buy a $50000 Bar) and the degree is determined by the acceptance level of the resulting item and how small its denomination is.
> 
> A 1000 oz bar of silver is a lot cheaper to make than 1000 1oz coins.
> these 1000 coins are much more convenient to use as emergency currency and will have much greater acceptance than random slivers of a big bar.
> That has nothing to do with "collector value" and _everything to do with practicality and your ability to convince people that what u offer is real and accurate._
> 
> If you are a wealthy investor feel free to buy 1000 oz bars but you cant buy groceries with them.
> During SHTF then you'll wind up getting them cut up anyway at much lesser acceptance, than a coin from an established mint would have
> 
> Having Bullion in convenient and assayed sizes (ie minted) is a extremely valuable fetaure, that you get back on resale why do you think the ancients started to mint coins out of PMs?
> 
> Its a lot easier/faster for me to resell 1000 eagles to JM Bullion than it is a 1000 oz bar AND I will get a couple extra grand for it.
> 
> Call them and ask them what they "buy" rate is for those 2 situations.
> 
> And you will get that value back when you use them and/or sell them as they generally command most of the premium back on resale.
> 
> Even Rounds are better than large bars or junk silver, again for the same reasons tho since the mints of rounds are private they will command a bit less over spot than something minted by a gov't mint)
> 
> Coins, rounds and low denomination bars are simply a different form of Bullion and have no intrinsic collector value of any kind and I dont think anyone expects them to.
> 
> trying to sell junk silver or 1000 oz silver bars you will get back significantly less per oz than from minted silver , you will only get melt value unlike with coins when you get spot + X.
> 
> If on resale you get the same price per ounce for minted silver coins that you do for junk silver or 1000 oz bar then something is wrong with your negotiation technique.
> The point is whatever the premium you pay for minted silver over junk or bars you get most of it back on resale, PLUS your resale is faster and easier.
> 
> Even I as a prepper am unsure what value I should give certain junk silver.
> What use is something as emergency currency is most people dont appreciate its worth?
> 
> But everyone can appreciate a minted troy ounce of pure silver!
> 
> And try to convince Joe Schmo gas station owner, 10 days into SHTF to give you a tank of gas for a couple oz of junk silver or for a freshly cut 2 oz slice of a 1000 oz bar and see what happens.
> 
> But give him 2 or 3 Silver Eagles (or maples, or Buffaloes etc) and you will very likely drive away with a full tank of gas.


In a post-SHTF world I wouldn't accept silver rounds or bars or bullion. I wouldn't know if they were authentic or not. I think most people wouldn't know if they were authentic or not. I would only accept coins.


----------



## invision

LincTex said:


> ZOIKS!! Hang on, here it goes!!
> 
> Anyone else notice the mortgage rate jumped 1/2% in one week?!?!!??!


More than $1 now... Gold is climbing too... What news is causing the jump?


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## BillS

You can see the 30 day silver chart. Given the trend, there's a good chance it will continue to drop.


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## invision

BillS said:


> You can see the 30 day silver chart. Given the trend, there's a good chance it will continue to drop.


That is just it, I agree it is going bear for next 3-7 months, everyone except Schiff is bear on gold right now. When gold drops typically other PMs follow suit, so I don't see silver rising up to 25-30 for at least 6-10 months, but yet today up over a 6% aka +$1.10... With Gold up over $34 too??


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## Dakine

I bought another $35 fv in the last month or so of junk silver, I'll keep going. I dont care if silver keeps falling or not, I want as much as I can get. On my budget and trying to do the other things I have to take care of... ehh thats a trade off. I'm going to get $10 fv more next week 

so it's at $18'ish right now, thats okay. I'll be buying as long as it's available. When the house of cards comes down, it will be financing my empire


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## Marcus

One of the fellows I follow (and I can vouch that he has a hot hand right now) feels silver is headed to probably $35 likely next year on its way to $80. He uses Elliott Wave Theory (developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott) along with the Fibonacci series (The Golden Ratio) and develops probabilities based on the non-linear characteristics of the market (fractals.) The key support level he's looking at right now is $16.40. If silver goes below that level, he's looking for a potential target beyond $100.

I know what I've written sounds a bit screwy, but this guy has nailed the silver market (both its ups and downs) for better than a year. He has other shorter term targets, but I won't reveal them since he does offer a pay service for his advice. BTW, he called the price jump on Friday. PM me if you want to know more about his service (it isn't cheap.)


----------



## invision

But what is the justification for the increase of $1.15 in silver all of a sudden.. I still don't see any indicator as to why it reversed course - automatic buy triggers??


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## Immolatus

Far be it for me to put words in anyones mouth, I think BlueZ's main point is, and Bill correctly pointed it out already, is that not only do minted coins command a premium because theyre nice and shiny, it also makes them much more easily recognizable and therefore more likely to be accepted as barter. That said, I have both.
Marcus, youre vouching for your guys track record? I've always been interested in one of those pay services, but have been too afraid to pull the trigger because they always seem like a scam. Or maybe its because if I had some fool proof plan (or somewhat reliable?) I would be rich and not worry about having a biz charging people for my expertise. Doesnt seem like it would be worth the trouble.


----------



## Marcus

Immolatus said:


> Marcus, youre vouching for your guys track record? I've always been interested in one of those pay services, but have been too afraid to pull the trigger because they always seem like a scam. Or maybe its because if I had some fool proof plan (or somewhat reliable?) I would be rich and not worry about having a biz charging people for my expertise. Doesnt seem like it would be worth the trouble.


Yes. 
Years ago, I subscribed to The Option Advisor when Bernie Schaeffer(sp?) had the hot hand and was appearing on CNBC regularly. There's nothing quite as nice as making several hundred $$ before even going to work (I was living out west at the time.)
To me, a lot of it seems to be ego. They want to become 'famous' and also share their system. I've seen it many times before in sports betting. Eventually, the books would adjust as will the market. He does offer a free trial if you're interested. PM me for more info.


----------



## partdeux

invision said:


> That is just it, I agree it is going bear for next 3-7 months, everyone except Schiff is bear on gold right now. When gold drops typically other PMs follow suit, so I don't see silver rising up to 25-30 for at least 6-10 months, but yet today up over a 6% aka +$1.10... With Gold up over $34 too??


Apparently JPM has done a 180° turn


----------



## FrankW

BillS said:


> In a post-SHTF world I wouldn't accept silver rounds or bars or bullion. I wouldn't know if they were authentic or not. I think most people wouldn't know if they were authentic or not. I would only accept coins.


I mostly agree.

Your point is at the heart of my argument that acceptability is very important and this is reflected in the market rates for different kind of Bullion (and i also consider coins and rounds as a form of Bullion)

BUT I think the better known rounds such as Buffaloes will also enjoy a _significant _acceptability edgeabove junk silver or random slivers cut off from big bars, right form the beginning.

Perhaps after a while when people are more used to things even matching those of coins while slivers of silver cut from big bars or junk silver will also enjoy a little less acceptability and some penalty to their silver value compared to neatly minted coins (or even rounds)


----------



## k0xxx

WooHoo! Picked up another roll (20) of mixed Silver Eagles today from a local fellow on Craigslist for $400. Just barely over spot, but not bad. Went to see him about a vehicle and talk eventually got around to the economy, metals, etc., and he mentioned that he was looking to unload some silver to help finance a newer vehicle.










I like the plastic coin vaults for the SE's, but I'm probably going to switch to the Monster Box tubes, since they take up less room.


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## LongRider

BlueZ said:


> Maples , Eagles etc , none of them are collector coins in_ any way_, they are Bullion, used by investors and preppers.
> 
> Sir, I simply dont understand why you keep referring to them as "collector coins".


From JM Bullion's website


JM Bullion said:


> Gold Coins
> 
> Gold coins are the most dynamic form of gold in that they serve as both a type of bullion investment and as a collectible. *Though some coins are more expensive than others, virtually all of them will be sold at a healthy premium over the spot price of the gold contained within the coin*.
> 
> The reason why gold coins cost more per ounce than gold bars is because of the coins' scarcity, collectibility, and demand. Almost all major coins release a new variation every year, and once a certain year's production is finished, that variation of the coin will never be produced again. This creates a rarity and demand that goes beyond the value of the gold contained within each coin. This is opposed to gold bars and rounds, which can be produced by any gold mint in the world, and thus are less valuable as a collectible.


Those that are in the bissines of selling gold coins seem to disagree with you. Note the underlined words collectibile and collectibility, The sentence in bold that follows, goes onto explain what that means. Which is that when buying coins like the American Gold Eagles, Canadian Gold Maple Leafs you will pay more than the value of the gold in the coin, based upon the coins, condition, and rarity. Not its gold value. So I do not know what is so hard to grasp. In a barter or SHTF scenario the only thing worthy of consideration is the actual value of the gold, all that non tangible value, how shiny, rare, mint, old, unique, untouched by human hands will be totally irrelevant. So why pay extra? As I have already said if you can get those coins for the value of the gold or close too it than go for it. Most often I find that ounce for ounce I can get lower denomination British Gold Sovereigns or Italian Gold Lire.


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## FrankW

Come on we all know that's just advertising hype to sell stuff and make it seem more exciting than it is.

and that _Healthy premium _even for Gold is like 50 bucks on a ounce.
On a $1250 coin thats a trivial cost.

besides Gold coins are too big a unit to use as emergency currency anyway so they are not such a great subject of discussion from a prepping perspective anyway.

I dont know any other way to explain it than how I did previously in this thread,... but no one considers bullion coins collectible unless there is something special about them beyond being a PM coin.

And of COURSE like explained before ,when someone goes thru the effort to buy PM at melt price(spot), then mints it, guarntees its weight/purity, and distributes it, they cannot do it for free.
So there HAS to be a mark-up of some kind.

That is where your "above spot" mark up come from I dont know any other way to explain it.

And yes if you buy more obscure coins (which I think that is what you are saying?) the mark-up above spot will be less.
I'd be very surprised if you can buy 1 oz gold coins AT spot unless that is a company "sell spot" ( which some also do then you dont see the mark-up)

Like any other item the high acceptance name brand that everyone can recognize will be a little more.

Unless someone is very unskilled and buying at higher markup for what he is getting these things are al not such a big deal and you will often get much of it back on resale as discussed previously.


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## Jim1590

I have been waiting for a big drop to buy some more. I get ASE's, maples, art bars even have some junk coins. The problem is I do not have much because it usually comes down to filling up the pantry for food or buying a couple ounces. 

But, that bring said, the $ situation is getting much better and I just may be able to double what I have without too much of a hit to the monthly budget before summer is out. So I would love to see the price keep on dropping!

Luckily I have a guy across the street who sells PM's along with other collectibles. I have been in there a few times and I can probably get on the same page with him wanting to get bullion type silver at the best price, not caring about intrinsic value.


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## ThatPrepperGuy

invision said:


> Went out to look at silver today and the prices just keep dropping, below $19 right now... Can it hit $17??? Or lower???


So, you're against buying the REAL PHYSICAL SILVER BULLION because the price drops?

That's a good thing!


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## Gravlore

Marcus said:


> There is a huge difference between physical and paper PMs. One requires the expenditure of resources to produce while the other merely requires a few clicks of a mouse button to create.
> 
> With prices where they are today, miners are not going to dig up ore to sell it at below their cost. So supply will drop as marginal mines are mothballed.
> 
> Note: I realize that gold and silver production is mostly a by-product of other metal mining (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_mining). So in reality, other metal prices (such as copper and zinc) will control how much PMs are processed. Copper is down (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html) significantly over the last 6, 12, and 60 months. Lead is flat to down over the same time frame as is Nickel and Zinc. So production will be muted for PMs.
> 
> I will also point out that summer months are normally soft periods for prices in PMs.
> 
> One thing no one ever mentions is the endgame for all the QE the last 5 years. If the Fed stops buying, they'll still have trillions of dollars worth of bonds on their balance sheet. So what will they do with it?
> 
> 1. They will hold the bonds to maturity. Possible IMHO
> 2. They will sell the bonds at some point in the marketplace. Unlikely IMHO
> 3. They will get creative. More likely IMHO
> 
> How can they get creative and rid themselves of the bonds?
> The Fed could reduce the interest they pay on excess reserves (.25%) in an effort to get banks to purchase their bond holdings. Or they can simply raise the overnight rate (currently 0%.) I feel at some point that the Fed will try to offload their holdings to those banks who benefited from the injections of liquidity during the crisis. It makes sense since those entities were the cause of the problem in the first place. It won't be done quickly though and will probably take decades to complete. So their choice may end up being a hybrid of #1 & #3.


The paper and physical are not the same but physical here always runs about $5 over spot within 2 weeks of a massive price decline. Silver and gold are easy to get after the mad rush for physical subsides. India increased tariffs on gold imports so demand is decreasing until Sept (India's wedding season). Gold does not have many uses really other than a hedge due to the disconnect of its past value as currency. I like silver more because it is a useful metal for both money and industry.

The $1200 gold production cost is a farce to keep the price inflated. The worst of the worst mines may need a price over $1200 but most do not. Remember that because I (perhaps you as well) like gold and silver does not mean others do. Summer is normally soft PM but when big Ben opens his big flap, anything can happen.


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## Marcus

I don't really disagree with you, Gravlore other than to note mines are already starting to curtail. It's always the marginal ones first when prices drop.
I already knew about the import tariffs in India, but have you noticed the Indians are turning to silver particularly in the last 2 months? Silver imports there are way up. I also hear that gold smuggling may see a resurgence there. The reason Indians love PMs (beyond the cultural reasons) in the rampant inflation and corruption there. They (properly) believe that wealth is land or PMs.


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## LongRider

BlueZ said:


> Come on we all know that's just advertising hype to sell stuff and make it seem more exciting than it is.


Thanks for the explanation. Owned an Ad agency I sold at forty to retire, but it is still interesting to learn new marketing tactics. I'd never of thought to advertise that my client was charging a healthy premium over actual value of an item. I'm weird like that I prefer paying less not more, especially when trying to preserve my wealth. Not sure where your $50 over spot came from. I have seen the mark up be much more than that. But even at that rate, can mean to thousands of dollars, extra. Feel free to do as you please it is your money after all. As I said I prefer to pay less, to have a more useable product. As I do not foresee making a lot of $1250.00 purchases when SHTF, smaller denominations are more practical and cheaper for me. Bottom line is I think we will need to agree to disagree, as each of our perceptions are very different than the others



Marcus said:


> The reason Indians love PMs (beyond the cultural reasons) in the rampant inflation and corruption there. They (properly) believe that wealth is land or PMs.


Part of the cultural reasons are that gold is a much more commonly used form of currency. Some may surprised to see how often taking a link or two off of a gold chain is weighted, assessed on the spot (excuse the pun) and used for currency in many Asian countries.


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## FrankW

BillS said:


> One of these days it's going back up. I'd buy it now while it's so cheap. If I had the extra money I'd buy it today. Regardless of what it might be tomorrow. We're going to see $100 silver in the next year or two. It won't matter much if you bought it at $19 or $16.


I dont think it will go quite that nhigh that soon but I agree that it will rise.

it wont much matter whether you bought it as 19 or 22 dollars.


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## TheLazyL

I just don't understand...please try and educate me.

EOTWAWKI. I don't care how much gold or silver you offer for the rifle and ammo. Gold or silver has zero nutritional value. Rifle ain't for sale. 

Inflation? So I buy Gold/silver with the hope I can sell it for more then what I paid for it to keep ahead of inflation?


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## LincTex

TheLazyL said:


> I just don't understand...please try and educate me.
> EOTWAWKI. I don't care how much gold or silver you offer .... it ain't for sale.


Maybe not you, but perhaps someone else? For some folks, their stuff won't be for sale at any price.

At least for a while...
When things stabilize, folks will trade/barter, buy/sell, etc. things they need/don't need. If I have excess firewood (and I do) and I could sell some, I would be willing to listen to what you have to offer. If you don't have any goods I want, I'll accept your coins.



TheLazyL said:


> Inflation? So I buy Gold/silver with the hope I can sell it for more then what I paid for it to keep ahead of inflation?


Yes, pretty much. As the value of the dollar goes down and down, a beef roast that was $15 now costs $75. The same silver you bought for $15 will now sell for $75.

At least that is the philosophy. Supposedly, the same amount of gold that bought 10,000 lbs of wheat 100 years ago will also buy 10,000 lbs of wheat now, *regardless* of what number is assigned to the "value" at any given time.


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## partdeux

Nice site comparing historical "value" of gold
http://pricedingold.com/

100 years ago, yale university costs the same amount of gold as it does today


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## cowboyhermit

partdeux said:


> Nice site comparing historical "value" of gold
> http://pricedingold.com/
> 
> 100 years ago, yale university costs the same amount of gold as it does today


That is a good site, I think it is a good exercise to try and value things in other than dollars every so often. The system works so hard to make us think only one way and as a result we are prone to many biases. For instance many in the general population only see inflation purely as "prices rising" when in fact the "real value" of the item may indeed be the same and in fact the currency is devaluing. Tptb do not want the average person to even consider that possibility. Another example is deflation, anathema to the mainstream system but in reality it means that a dollar you put away will buy you more today than yesterday, horror of horrors

I don't think we need another debate on the value of pm's in a shtf situation so I will just second what Linc-Tex had to say. Some people have way more food than they can ever use in a lifetime, and plans to produce more indefinitely, they will likely take labour or certain goods in exchange but failing that some will take precious metals (myself for example).


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## Marcus

I'll give it a shot explaining the necessity for PMs, The LazyL.

The first thing to understand, as Linc & partdeux have pointed out, is that PMs are a store of wealth. This store of wealth, unlike paper currencies for instance, are only subject to price fluctuations due to supply and demand. So the marketplace sets the price (equilibrium between supply and demand) and oversupplies or excessive demand are mitigated through arbitrage. This means that an oversupply in one location causes that excessive supply to be moved to areas of the marketplace where prices are higher. Similarly, over demand in an area causes supply to migrate there. Paper currencies, on the other hand, have their value controlled by Central Banks (though arbitrage opportunities sometimes occur) generally as a result of government policy or actions. As J.P. Morgan said, "Gold is money. Everything else is credit."

The second thing to understand is that PMs are relatively portable. Thus a person may move their wealth across national borders if a government becomes oppressive. A lot of folks fleeing from Nazi Germany attempted to do this in the run up to WW2 with varying degrees of success.

The third thing to understand is that the value of PMs are fairly constant worldwide (due to arbitrage.) This means that 10 oz of gold is worth roughly the same in the US, Canada, Mexico, or Europe.

The last thing to understand is that wealth in the form of PMs are much more secure from government seizure than wealth in the form of currency since it is much harder for government agents to actually find. It can be easily hidden or stored offshore. Currency can be debased (see the value of a dollar since 1913 for an example) through inflation which is a hidden tax on those who have acted responsibly and saved for the future.

If something major were to happen here, persons with PMs could eventually access that wealth while those with wealth only in dollars will be at the mercy of the government. That's why rich folks (like Mitt Romney for instance) keep a portion of their assets offshore; they can get to that wealth and still live well even if the country goes to hell in a handbasket.


----------



## Turtle

Perhaps it would help to understand the historical origins of the concept of "banking"?

Approximately 900 years ago, during the Crusades, the Christians making a pilgrimage to the Holy Land found that it was dangerous to travel a great distance with large amounts of wealth. The order of the Knights Templar realized that they could provide a service to these pilgrims (and make a little money on the side via fees) by taking their gold at the beginning of their journey and issuing a scroll with their seal that verified that the Order was holding a certain amount for that individual, sort of like a savings bond or a bank check. When the pilgrim arrived at their destination, they could redeem this for the value of their original deposit, because it was known to stand for a given value. 

In the same way, the actual precious metal is an easier way to transport wealth than in goods. Say that a hundred sheep is worth a one pound bar of gold; which is easier to transport? In a barter-based economy, one good is traded for another. A good such as 24k gold (or any other precious metal) has a known and intrinsic value which is indisputable. So, while one may be able argue the quality or value of a product, the inherent value of a precious metal is well-established.


----------



## partdeux

Marcus said:


> The last thing to understand is that wealth in the form of PMs are much more secure from government seizure than wealth in the form of currency since it is much harder for government agents to actually find. It can be easily hidden or stored offshore. Currency can be debased (see the value of a dollar since 1913 for an example) through inflation which is a hidden tax on those who have acted responsibly and saved for the future.


aka the confiscation of bank accounts in Cyprus. Don't think it can't happen here... what about your mutual fund that is holding Detroit bonds? Those are suddenly going to be wiped out, taking your portion with it.

If you're lucky enough to hold gold, 10 years from now, it will buy the same amount of gold as it does today. Silver is a bit of an issue, as there is a lot more market manipulation than with gold. BUT, silver also has more industrial purposes than gold.

If SHTF, gold will have zero value. Food, ammo, water, and shelter will have value. AFTER SHTF, then gold will act as a common trading medium. IF SHTF never happens, then gold is an excellent medium for storage of value.


----------



## FrankW

I really liked most points made by all posters above in this thread.
BUT I respectfully disagree that during 'SHTF" PM will have no value.

Not all trade even during the first few weeks will be via exchanging bullets one at a time.
PM's will always have value even duirng extreme SHTF like rwdanda genocide , holocaust, Kosovo war, 

The only scenario I could imagine where it has no vlaue is like an isloated island where everyone is starving and no one can get off to trade w/ anyone else.

Maybe Manhattan during SHTF will fit that extreme description as its tunnels are flooded w/o power and the bridges will clog so thoroughly with that many people even if everyone walks it would take weeks to empty the city..
but other than that.. PM's will always have value.

Gold is more portable but Silver is a more practical currency because its easier to exchange tangible chunks (via coins, rounds etc) for everyday items.


----------



## LincTex

partdeux said:


> Don't think it *CAN'T* happen here...


I fixed that for you.



BlueZ said:


> I respectfully disagree that during "SHTF" PM will have no value.


"Supply and demand" will dictate that.

Scenario:
If I am down to my last can of Beefaroni and have ZERO prospects for getting any more food *at all* (because the land is stripped barren) then how much is that very last can worth to me? $2000?

"What If" I already have $2000 worth of gold in my pocket (and nothing to spend it on) and you are offering $2000 in gold for my last can of Beefaroni, then your $2000 of gold is pretty much worthless to me. You either need a LOT more gold (if I even want it, because there is no food for sale anywhere) or you will simply *not* buy my last can - at any price.

Caveat:
If things REALLY get that bad, (doubtful, but still...) I wouldn't waste that last can of food on me. I would find a kid that needs it more than me, and they'll get my gold (for free) at that point as well.


----------



## partdeux

LincTex said:


> I fixed that for you.


Strictly a typo on my part... thank you


----------



## LongRider

TheLazyL said:


> I just don't understand...please try and educate me.
> 
> EOTWAWKI. I don't care how much gold or silver you offer for the rifle and ammo. Gold or silver has zero nutritional value. Rifle ain't for sale.
> 
> Inflation? So I buy Gold/silver with the hope I can sell it for more then what I paid for it to keep ahead of inflation?


Correct in a EOTWAWKI and no hope of returning to any form of civilization PM's may very well have no value. However, IMO, that is the most unlikely SHTF scenario there is, as I believe man (the species) will always seek some form of social order. In which case PM's will retain their value.

The last statement is also correct provided we understand being able to sell it for more than we paid for it does not mean that the amount we receive for its sale will purchase more than what we could at the time of purchase. If that sounds kind of convoluted, maybe this example will help. Say an ounce of gold is worth $1300.00 today and can buy 3,000 bullets. Ten, twenty, a hundred years from now gold will be worth a lot more. Say it doubles in value and that same ounce is worth $2600.00 it will still buy 3,000 bullets. Unlike the the exact same $1300.00 of cash stuffed under the mattress, in ten, twenty, a hundred years from now will only buy 500 bullets.

Which is why I try to emphasis that gold will not make a poor man rich, it simply perseveres what wealth or buying power you have.


----------



## FrankW

LincTex said:


> I fixed that for you.
> 
> "Supply and demand" will dictate that.
> 
> Scenario:
> If I am down to my last can of Beefaroni and have ZERO prospects for getting any more food *at all* (because the land is stripped barren) then how much is that very last can worth to me? $2000?
> 
> "What If" I already have $2000 worth of gold in my pocket (and nothing to spend it on) and you are offering $2000 in gold for my last can of Beefaroni, then your $2000 of gold is pretty much worthless to me. You either need a LOT more gold (if I even want it, because there is no food for sale anywhere) or you will simply *not* buy my last can - at any price.
> 
> Caveat:
> If things REALLY get that bad, (doubtful, but still...) I wouldn't waste that last can of food on me. I would find a kid that needs it more than me, and they'll get my gold (for free) at that point as well.


This argument was addressed in the last paragraph of my previous post.
While true it is a artificial situation that will only apply in few and select circumstances such as the example OI made above ( a realistic situation that might explain 'down to my last can")

but it is definitely a specialized situation.

we cna never prepare for every situation only the most likely ones.
I can create a dozen examples where the possession of PM might be much superior possessing an extra 100 cans of food but it is not helpful to the nuance of the discussion.


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## FrankW

PS: Another good thing about PM's is buying them doesn't really cost any money unlike other preps.
it simply converts money into a different form.

it is also very useful in 1000's of realistic situations.

the concern brought up by Linc of suddenly being in a situation where he will never have access ot nay food again is not alikely situation to come up.

And in this artificial situation having an extra can or even 100 cans would make no difference.


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## VoorTrekker

There is a difference between currency and money. Federal Reserve Notes are currency, accepted as a medium of exchange based on faith or consent of the buyer/seller. Money is tangible, has value, intrinsic, numismatic and is divisible. Gold is money as are all precious metals, which also have industrial and personal uses.

Precious metals are good for re-invigorating an economy and to re-establish commerce. Money has been used as a form of exchange since the ancient times because it was more efficient as commerce between city states and tribal states.

This notion of TEOTWAKI where human life is reduced to a hand to mouth life until the larder is empty is a hollow fantasy. Can anyone really fathom a continuing human existence modeled after "The Road" or any other Hollywood fantasy? 

If that were the case there would be no point to preparedness or survivalism. A barter economy is a stagnant economy without a momentum and reduces the standard of living. That is why trade and commerce are the hallmarks of human civilization and improvements of civilization. Art and status are commentaries, a representation of achievement. 

If precious metals are a sign of hopelessness of our plight, I pray we all have this hopelessness. There was a TV special on satellite TV about the secret of gold and another on the present economy. Economically, we are doomed. Germany and France stored their gold at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. They wanted to audit and inventory their gold and the FRB denied them access. France and Germany demanded their gold and now there is a world crisis which will involve the entire world against the U.S. Our politicians are impotent on this and we are complaining about the index price of silver?

Buy it when one can and buy as much as one can. When the crisis manifests world wide, only those of us whom are roundly (nearly fully) prepared will survive without too much discomfort or strife. 

Barter is temporary--money is long term economically speaking. The idea of survivalism is to restore human civilization and our technological achievements after the fall of the "Empire," not to languish in desolate despair.


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## invision

VoorTrekker said:


> There is a difference between currency and money. Federal Reserve Notes are currency, accepted as a medium of exchange based on faith or consent of the buyer/seller. Money is tangible, has value, intrinsic, numismatic and is divisible. Gold is money as are all precious metals, which also have industrial and personal uses.
> 
> Precious metals are good for re-invigorating an economy and to re-establish commerce. Money has been used as a form of exchange since the ancient times because it was more efficient as commerce between city states and tribal states.
> 
> This notion of TEOTWAKI where human life is reduced to a hand to mouth life until the larder is empty is a hollow fantasy. Can anyone really fathom a continuing human existence modeled after "The Road" or any other Hollywood fantasy?
> 
> If that were the case there would be no point to preparedness or survivalism. A barter economy is a stagnant economy without a momentum and reduces the standard of living. That is why trade and commerce are the hallmarks of human civilization and improvements of civilization. Art and status are commentaries, a representation of achievement.
> 
> If precious metals are a sign of hopelessness of our plight, I pray we all have this hopelessness. There was a TV special on satellite TV about the secret of gold and another on the present economy. Economically, we are doomed. Germany and France stored their gold at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. They wanted to audit and inventory their gold and the FRB denied them access. France and Germany demanded their gold and now there is a world crisis which will involve the entire world against the U.S. Our politicians are impotent on this and we are complaining about the index price of silver?
> 
> Buy it when one can and buy as much as one can. When the crisis manifests world wide, only those of us whom are roundly (nearly fully) prepared will survive without too much discomfort or strife.
> 
> Barter is temporary--money is long term economically speaking. The idea of survivalism is to restore human civilization and our technological achievements after the fall of the "Empire," not to languish in desolate despair.


Nicely put... Couldn't have said it better.


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## VoorTrekker

Thank you, invision. I strongly recommend those two programs on television, I deleted them after watching and I didn't note which networks produced them.


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## Marcus

I hope everyone has taken advantage of the recent opportunity to buy silver at a discount.
Prices are taking off tonight. http://silverprice.org/
It's up 80 cents at the moment and has broken through the important $20.60 resistance level. We're likely looking at $25 soon.


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## jsriley5

Got mine locked in and money sent for it today  WHEW just in time it appears. still wish I had done it friday instead


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## FrankW

I was a bit low due to buying too many guns lately..

I wished i had bought some last week.

Was thinking about it but then looking at my depleted accts and then didnt..


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## LincTex

jsriley5 said:


> Got mine locked in and money sent for it today. WHEW just in time it appears.





BlueZ said:


> I was a bit low due to buying too many guns lately...I wished i had bought some last week.


It isn't rising THAT fast. You can still get in now for a very good price. If it goes up a buck an oz and you buy 25 ounces, you are only out $25. Big Whoopee deal.

People were still buying at $25 figuring silver will hit $50, or even $80 at SOME point. The highest I bought at was around $29. I have no regrets, I know it will get there again, and even pass that mark.

I have a '95 Mustang GT that will be up for sale really soon. I am thinking of offering it at a short price to get a quick sale, then convert all that cash to silver. Even if it hits $25 I am buying all I can.


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## Marcus

Though silver is going up (likely to $25-27 in the short-term), there is still a chance that we'll get one more low.


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## biobacon

Marcus said:


> Though silver is going up (likely to $25-27 in the short-term), there is still a chance that we'll get one more low.


And that is when we pounce. I bought some last week and I see that its already worth more then I paid for it, (I got a good deal). My wife is switching jobs soon and will need to roll over her 401k. I would like to put at least a quarter of it in silver. Any one done that? Any advice?


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## BillS

biobacon said:


> And that is when we pounce. I bought some last week and I see that its already worth more then I paid for it, (I got a good deal). My wife is switching jobs soon and will need to roll over her 401k. I would like to put at least a quarter of it in silver. Any one done that? Any advice?


I'd put it all in silver. The stock market is going to tank soon and so is the dollar.


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## Dakine

I picked up more silver today which I had actually locked in on Monday, he mentioned I did well because of the shift this week, I didnt even realize it because I've been so focused on work lately. 

Yeah I did okay I guess, made a little money before even picking up my phyz, but for me, so what, it's almost irrelevant because I'm going to keep buying what I can, when I can. I was buying at $33 an ounce and I'm sure as hell not going to stop buying at $23 now just because "oooooh ahhhh I saw it at $19 not long ago, it might go back so I'll wait!!!" noooooo.... I'll keep making my little nibble buys and that way my stash keeps growing and growing. :2thumb:


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## jsriley5

Yeah I was going to buy the dollars worth I bought no matter what it was I"m just glad I caught it before it was far off of the bottom it had reached. My timing was luck for a change THat is what the Whew was about. Lat time I think it was like 33 an ounce when I bought. and it barely went up before it began a long slow drop. Glad I cought it at a low point this time. Not that I"m rushing out to sell when it it hits 50 that isn't really why I bought it I bough to have a secure form of value storage.


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## Marcus

FWIW, silver was up a dollar today (4.3%) to $24.03. The short-term target of $25-27 is still valid. The long-term target is $80 unless we go back down under $17. If that happens, the long-term target will be over $100.


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## BillS

I just bought some more silver. The events in the Middle East will push it much higher in the coming weeks.


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## FrankW

Its almost at $25 now...
Wish I had bought at 18.50..


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## mojo4

I picked some up at 20 and when it dropped to 18.50 i started getting antsy cause I thought it was going down more. But it stopped and now its at 24.50 and headed up with no signs of stopping or dropping so im happy for me. So when oil hits 200 a barrel cause our fine white house is pushing the entire middle east towards war i should be able to get enough gas to keep me from hitchhiking home.


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## buggy

I've been buying silver for a few years and I buy a variety of items such as bullion, American Eagles, and some collectible coins. I have found that as an investment the collectible coins have increased in value at a much higher rate. Of course, it's not just a monetary investment for gain, it's the security of having the physical silver but, if nothing ever happens I want a decent return too. One of my best buys was the 2012 America The Beautiful 5oz Hawaii Volcanos coin. Bought at $125 and it's now selling for $500. The Acadia coin of that year is now selling for $450. I have every one of them back to when it started in 2010, 5 coins per year.

Buying at different prices over time is the same as in buying stocks, it's called Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). You buy some low, you buy some high. You're not going to hit the absolute low in buying so don't just keep waiting for that perfect price.


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## BlueShoe

mojo4 said:


> I picked some up at 20 and when it dropped to 18.50 i started getting antsy cause I thought it was going down more. But it stopped and now its at 24.50 and headed up with no signs of stopping or dropping so im happy for me. So when oil hits 200 a barrel cause our fine white house is pushing the entire middle east towards war i should be able to get enough gas to keep me from hitchhiking home.


The groups pushing the middle east to war are Saudi Arabia and Israel.


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## LincTex

I didn't get in at $18.50...shucks.

Dropped 50 cents today, I still have time to get more...


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## HarleyRider

Right now, silver is at $23.54 - down 38 cents.


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## BlueShoe

I think I started paying attention when it was around $11. It's been quite a ride.


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## Dakine

Picked up another roll of halves recently. for me it's all about the nibble bites. I know there's people that have my entire stash in each of their cars as barter, hey... cool for them. I'm doing what I'm doing now for me 

in my opinion, and take it for it's worth, the worst thing is doing nothing. If you recognize that bad stuff is coming and you take no action because you didnt get the price you wanted, then it's on you, and to me... those people are going to be the locusts or zombies. They don't know WTF just happened, they only know the money is gone, the grocery stores are empty or burned down, and there's army trucks trying to drop off food... maybe. 

Good luck with that. It's definitely not "a plan" in my opinion


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## libprepper

Having a little cash around in coin is cool for SHTF. Playing with PM's and stocking them as a primary prep against inflation/collapse is a huge scam against newbie preppers ( and foolish old ones) who should know better, but don't. Much like the idiotic ammunition and gun stockpiles that some survivalists have bought into. Do the math , how may rounds can you put through before your odds run out. Both scams by corporate bullion/gun types to separate preppers/survivalists from their filthy lucre.


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## Dakine

libprepper said:


> Having a little cash around in coin is cool for SHTF. Playing with PM's and stocking them as a primary prep against inflation/collapse is a huge scam against newbie preppers ( and foolish old ones) who should know better, but don't. Much like the idiotic ammunition and gun stockpiles that some survivalists have bought into. Do the math , how may rounds can you put through before your odds run out. Both scams by corporate bullion/gun types to separate preppers/survivalists from their filthy lucre.


well, I'm not going to judge those statements until I hear what you think people should be investing both time and fiat currency in.

Your condemnations are clear, if you have something to back it up besides pontification that would be great!


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## cowboyhermit

libprepper said:


> Having a little cash around in coin is cool for SHTF. Playing with PM's and stocking them as a primary prep against inflation/collapse is a huge scam against newbie preppers ( and foolish old ones) who should know better, but don't. Much like the idiotic ammunition and gun stockpiles that some survivalists have bought into. Do the math , how may rounds can you put through before your odds run out. Both scams by corporate bullion/gun types to separate preppers/survivalists from their filthy lucre.


I had a long and vitriolic response to your arrogant post, it touched on my ancestors who suffered under hyperinflation and tyrannical governments and the many other things wrong with your post, but it just isn't worth it.

Read a book, get out there and do things in the real world, it is never too late to wake up.


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## k0xxx

libprepper said:


> Having a little cash around in coin is cool for SHTF. Playing with PM's and stocking them as a primary prep against inflation/collapse is a huge scam against newbie preppers ( and foolish old ones) who should know better, but don't. Much like the idiotic ammunition and gun stockpiles that some survivalists have bought into. Do the math , how may rounds can you put through before your odds run out. Both scams by corporate bullion/gun types to separate preppers/survivalists from their filthy lucre.


:feedtroll:


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## invision

libprepper said:


> Having a little cash around in coin is cool for SHTF. Playing with PM's and stocking them as a primary prep against inflation/collapse is a huge scam against newbie preppers ( and foolish old ones) who should know better, but don't. Much like the idiotic ammunition and gun stockpiles that some survivalists have bought into. Do the math , how may rounds can you put through before your odds run out. Both scams by corporate bullion/gun types to separate preppers/survivalists from their filthy lucre.


Hmm anti-gun, anti-pms, sounds like FEMA line or daisy pusher if shtf.. love to hear your OP on if everyone will come together when tshtf and sing a song with flowers in their hair... please do tell.


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## mojo4

libprepper said:


> Having a little cash around in coin is cool for SHTF. Playing with PM's and stocking them as a primary prep against inflation/collapse is a huge scam against newbie preppers ( and foolish old ones) who should know better, but don't. Much like the idiotic ammunition and gun stockpiles that some survivalists have bought into. Do the math , how may rounds can you put through before your odds run out. Both scams by corporate bullion/gun types to separate preppers/survivalists from their filthy lucre.


I couldn't have said it better myself. I have a good supply of fairie dust (its a cast iron mother to collect with all the hobbits laying claim to the best trees!) and a few unicorn hairs I won in a poker game with a troll. As soon as I get my phoenix feather I will be set for the apocalypse.


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## k0xxx

If the two of you (*libprepper* and *mojo4*) feel so strongly about it, what is your argument? In which economic or currency collapse has precious metals not been a hedge? Don't just troll with demeaning or derogatory statements and not have the spine to back it up.

PM's are not a be all or end all strategy, and they would be useless in a Mad Max scenario, but they make sense as a part of one's preps if an economic collapse is on the horizon. In the five currency meltdowns of the 20th century, the German Papiermark, Argentinian Peso, Zimbabwe Dollar, Peruvian Sol, and the Chilean Escudo, PM coinage kept it's value while the paper currencies inflated into oblivion. The same with any other PM assets.

So explain to me and the group here your reasoning, if you can.


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## invision

k0xxx said:


> If the two of you (libprepper and mojo4) feel so strongly about it, what is your argument? In which economic or currency collapse has precious metals not been a hedge? Don't just troll with demeaning or derogatory statements and not have the spine to back it up.
> 
> PM's are not a be all or end all strategy, and they would be useless in a Mad Max scenario, but they make sense as a part of one's preps if an economic collapse is on the horizon. In the five currency meltdowns of the 20th century, the German Papiermark, Argentinian Peso, Zimbabwe Dollar, Peruvian Sol, and the Chilean Escudo, PM coinage kept it's value while the paper currencies inflated into oblivion. The same with any other PM assets.
> 
> So explain to me and the group here your reasoning, if you can.


Your arguing with a lib... that is like trying to get milk from a bull.. futile because like a bull doesn't have udders, libs have limited uninformed minds!


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## monkeywarrior

Tacitus said:


> Today I bought some Walking Liberty Half-Dollars, Standing Liberty Quarters, and Mercury Dimes.
> 
> Very worn, to be sure. Some would call them "junk silver." Actually, I would call them that.
> 
> But whatever the price does after today, they look cool, they are are a part of history, and their silver content is guaranteed by the US government (from a time when a US government guarantee meant something).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...from back when they knew how to make coins!


Even if some people consider them junk silver, they are still very beautiful works of art.


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## TheLazyL

Silver is 23 dollars an ounce and beans are 12 cents an ounce. 

I can always trade a can of beans for...

And as silver prices drop I'm not loosing money that I could have used to buy more beans.


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## k0xxx

TheLazyL said:


> Silver is 23 dollars an ounce and beans are 12 cents an ounce.
> 
> I can always trade a can of beans for...
> 
> And as silver prices drop I'm not loosing money that I could have used to buy more beans.


Very true. The difference is they each serve a different purpose. Beans are to keep your body alive, PM's are to keep your wealth alive. If one doesn't believe that the Dollar will collapse, then there isn't any reason to own PM's. If one does, then PM's are a way to preserve wealth while the value of the Dollar dies.

As for my earlier post, I have no problem with anyone that doesn't believe the same as I do, the difference is that I can disagree without being condescending. Some it seems can't.


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## ZoomZoom

What's with silver today? It's jumped almost 20% in the past 3 hours.
At 12:00 it was $21.30. Now it's $23.20


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## LincTex

ZoomZoom said:


> What's with silver today? It's jumped almost 20% in the past 3 hours.
> At 12:00 it was $21.30. Now it's $23.20


Bid $22.91 
Ask $23.01
Change $1.21+


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## Marcus

It was caused by the Fed choosing not to taper at this time. Tapering had already been priced in to stocks, bonds, and PMs. We're likely looking at 1760-1800 in the S&P fairly soon.


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## mojo4

k0xxx said:


> If the two of you (libprepper and mojo4) feel so strongly about it, what is your argument? In which economic or currency collapse has precious metals not been a hedge? Don't just troll with demeaning or derogatory statements and not have the spine to back it up.
> 
> PM's are not a be all or end all strategy, and they would be useless in a Mad Max scenario, but they make sense as a part of one's preps if an economic collapse is on the horizon. In the five currency meltdowns of the 20th century, the German Papiermark, Argentinian Peso, Zimbabwe Dollar, Peruvian Sol, and the Chilean Escudo, PM coinage kept it's value while the paper currencies inflated into oblivion. The same with any other PM assets.
> 
> So explain to me and the group here your reasoning, if you can.


Wow. Sorry. I thought the references to hobbits, trolls, fairy dust and goblins put across my sarcasm towards libpreppers nonsense. In my head it seamed a quite nasty dagger towards the nonsense of those who don't like PM's. Guess it didn't come across as such. Thanks for stickin up for me invision! That's the last sportscar I let you borrow!!


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## k0xxx

mojo4 said:


> Wow. Sorry. I thought the references to hobbits, trolls, fairy dust and goblins put across my sarcasm towards libpreppers nonsense... (snip)


My apologies for missing the sarcasm. I can be a bit thick at times.


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## LincTex

ZoomZoom said:


> What's with silver today? It's jumped almost 20% in the past 3 hours.
> At 12:00 it was $21.30. Now it's $23.20


And.... it's down again!!

http://www.providentmetals.com/bullion/silver/private-slv/1-ozt-rd.html

Funny... the ZomBucks "Morgue Ann" are for sale today at $23.78
http://www.providentmetals.com/zombucks-morgue-anne-1-oz-silver-round.html

I won't be buying any of them though. 
I do NOT care for gimmicks - and that coin could be misidentified as a "toy" coin.
I'll stick with pre-'64 US mint.


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