# 2014-Crisis in Dollar Will Trigger Inflation-John Williams



## BillS

http://usawatchdog.com/2014-crisis-in-dollar-will-trigger-inflation-john-williams/

note: there's a 34 minute video at the usawatchdog.com site.

By Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Economist John Williams thinks 2014 will mark the beginning of hyperinflation. Williams contends, "You are going to see, early on, a crisis in the dollar that will start to trigger the inflation . . . as the inflation picks up, that's going to savage the economy, which is already in a depression. It never recovered." Forget what you have heard about the so-called recovery. Williams says, "The consumer is in trouble. There is nothing happening to turn the economy around." The weak economy is bad news for the dollar. According to Williams, "Anything that would suggest deficit deterioration here, and a weak economy would do that, will have a devastating impact on the dollar." And if foreigners start selling some of the 12 trillion U.S. dollar based assets, such as bonds and currency, things will turn ugly fast. Williams says, "We're dependent on the rest of the world continuing to go along with us and continue to support the dollar. That's not going to happen." So, the big question everyone is asking is when will the buck take a hit in value? *Williams says the dollar will likely begin selling off before the middle of this year, and he adds, "It's really going to be a currency panic . . .* when the fundamental selling pressure really starts to pick up, when the selling gets heavy . . . in turn, the weakness will be seen in a spike in oil prices and a spike in gasoline prices." Williams says there will be a panic out of the dollar and he predicts, "Once you see a massive sell-off here, I see the game as being over." Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of Shadowstats.com.


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## hiwall

It is certainly a possible scenario.


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## Tribal Warlord Thug

same damn thing.......just a new year.......


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## FatTire

These guys all keep saying the end is near.. I dont care, I want the life I want, if the rule of law falls apart, ill find people I can join with, or a placw no ones claimed yet to get it, but I refuse to live in fear of it happening before I can get my own land. Never give up, never let fear decide your actions for you


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## Foreverautumn

FatTire said:


> These guys all keep saying the end is near.. I dont care, I want the life I want, if the rule of law falls apart, ill find people I can join with, or a placw no ones claimed yet to get it, but I refuse to live in fear of it happening before I can get my own land. Never give up, never let fear decide your actions for you


You...you and I...we actually AGREE on something! Hot damn! We'll make a Republican out of you YET!


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## Tweto

Here is what I just heard on the video and what I read in he text.

Hyperinflation, 90% chance by the end of 2014, more likely early in the year.

Own physical gold.

The panic will be overseas when the 12 trillion in cash overseas is sold for their current currency in that country.

Here in the sates, unemployment will go up, consumers will have no money to spend, oil will climb fast, the fed will continue QE to prop up the banks, if they don't, expect deflation. since 2008 the FED has been fighting deflation (not inflation) QE is only to keep the banks whole.

He said that the people in this country are going to be in pain no matter what you do. This is because all other countries have had the dollar backing their own currency and here we only have the dollar. so when the dollar collapses we have no back-up. 

He doesn't know if the the banks will have a "bank holiday" it depends on the administration.

Greg Hunter seamed to be confused by some of his statements.


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## FatTire

ill never again be a republican or a democrat, if you want to be part of the divisive, tyrannical corporatist system, have at it.. 

i like that we can find common ground tho!


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## Geek999

If inflation picks up it will be absurdly easy for the Fed to end QE and allow interest rates to rise bringing it to a screeching halt. Volker did it in 1980 and all they have to do is dust off the playbook.

I think the Fed would be quite happy with low level inflation, but if you see it move past 5% I'd expect a Volker type response.


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## hiwall

While predictions of any catastrophic event may be plausible the likelihood of it happening at a certain time is very unlikely.


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## Geek999

hiwall said:


> While predictions of any catastrophic event may be plausible the likelihood of it happening at a certain time is very unlikely.


Good point. I'd be more worried about this if we elected another Democrat in 2016 and gave them a Democrat Congress as well. Then it would still be uncertain.


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## LincTex

Geek999 said:


> I'd be more worried about this if we elected another Democrat in 2016 and gave them a Democrat Congress as well.


I shudder at the thought!!!!


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## Geek999

LincTex said:


> I shudder at the thought!!!!


So do I, but IMHO it is more likely than hyperinlation in 2014.


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## BillS

FatTire said:


> These guys all keep saying the end is near.. I dont care, I want the life I want, if the rule of law falls apart, ill find people I can join with, or a placw no ones claimed yet to get it, but I refuse to live in fear of it happening before I can get my own land. Never give up, never let fear decide your actions for you


I don't live in fear either but I'm watching the financial skies for a huge storm that's coming. Put it that way.


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> If inflation picks up it will be absurdly easy for the Fed to end QE and allow interest rates to rise bringing it to a screeching halt. Volker did it in 1980 and all they have to do is dust off the playbook.
> 
> I think the Fed would be quite happy with low level inflation, but if you see it move past 5% I'd expect a Volker type response.


No, the Fed can't halt hyperinflation. The money supply has greatly increased and most of the dollars in existence are overseas. Once a dollar panic starts the money velocity will greatly increase and the value of the dollar will crash.

The federal government now has MONTHLY deficits the size of what the ANNUAL deficits used to be. The only way to finance the trillion dollar deficits is to print money. They've been doing that for 5 years now. It's only a matter of time before we have hyperinflation like Germany had in the 1920s for the same reason they did.


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## Geek999

We should probably revisit this at this time next year.


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## BillS

Tribal Warlord Thug said:


> same damn thing.......just a new year.......


No, it isn't. John Williams first predicted hyperinflation by the end of this decade but each year he's moved his prediction closer.

There are a number of other things that could happen at almost any time too.

We almost had a world war with Russia and China over Syria a few months ago. That could start to heat up again. There's already talk that Syria isn't getting rid of their chemical weapons fast enough.

Obama's deal with Iran to remove sanctions and let them build nukes has Saudi Arabia extremely unhappy. They are expected to announce that they'll accept other currencies besides dollars. That could happen at any time and that would mark the end of the petrodollar system.

We also have a stock market that's pumped up to extreme levels and could crash at any time.

And of course we have obamacare that's destroying full time jobs and replacing them with part time jobs. Besides creating high insurance premiums and massively high deductibles. We already have a shrinking economy. Expect the pace of implosion to increase.

There's no doubt that SOMETHING big will happen in 2014. Maybe everything.


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## hiwall

> There's no doubt that SOMETHING big will happen in 2014.


There's no doubt that SOMETHING big COULD happen in 2014.


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## Geek999

I'd say anyone who predicts something as dramatic as hyperinflation within a year is making a pretty brave prediction. I'm certainly not that prescient.

Let's have a bit of definition to make it easy though. If inflation reaches 10% by the end of 2014 John Williams and BillS are right. If inflation is 5-10% and rising they're right on the direction and wrong on the timing and we all ought to start worrying about high inflation. If inflation stays under 5% the prediction was flat out wrong.

Next question is what to do about it. Sounds like the recommendation is to buy gold and possibly other preps. Is that correct? Most of us would probably accumulate some preps during the year anyhow.


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## LincTex

Geek999 said:


> If inflation reaches 10% by the end of 2014 John Williams and BillS are right. /QUOTE]
> 
> Even if inflation doesn't hit 10%, the price of everything else seems to keep going up. "Name brand" milk is $4.94 a gallon and 80/20 ground beef is $3.59 a pound. Even "cup-o-noodles" are like 71 cents, and they were 39 cents 18 months ago. Diesel can't seem to dip under $3.59 no matter what happens. I can't believe we can still find gas in places at $2.99 and to me that is a miracle.
> 
> Don't get me started on the price of tires.
> 
> The prices of everything going up is a form of inflation, correct?
> It effectively leaves far less money available to do other things with.


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## Tweto

Go ahead and correct me. but 10% inflation is not hyperinflation. In my life have have seen inflation higher then 10% and it was never labeled hyper inflation. If I had to guess, I would say the inflation above 50% might start to enter hyperinflation status.


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## Geek999

Tweto said:


> Go ahead and correct me. but 10% inflation is not hyperinflation. In my life have have seen inflation higher then 10% and it was never labeled hyper inflation. If I had to guess, I would say the inflation above 50% might start to enter hyperinflation status.


You are correct, but I'm trying to be generous to give them a lot of room to be correct. If inflation tops 10% I'd say they made a decent prediction.


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## LincTex

I would agree with that. Although 10% is probably pushing the threshold... and it only takes 7 years to reach 100%, not 10 years as simple math would appear it would.


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## Tacitus

Geek999 said:


> If inflation picks up it will be absurdly easy for the Fed to end QE and allow interest rates to rise bringing it to a screeching halt. Volker did it in 1980 and all they have to do is dust off the playbook.


If interest rates go up, what would that do to our national debt situation?


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## Geek999

Tacitus said:


> If interest rates go up, what would that do to our national debt situation?


It would make it worse, so absent an inflation problem I expect them to be slow to take rates up.


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## Woody

There is the 'official' inflation numbers - NOT counting food and energy - then there is actual inflation that some of us have to deal with.

For us little folks, every time I go to buy groceries I can only gasp at what prices are doing. Just yesterday, or Sunday maybe, I made the trip and was looking for my weekly 'treat'. I went by the Entenmann's stand and thought, 'Hey, I haven't had a cheese Danish in a long time!'. I checked the expiration date and noticed the price there... $6.69!!!!!!! The store roasted chickens (that SMELL GREAT!) went up $.50, individual rolls up $0.25... Stop by the seafood counter and see what prices you last paid for things were, and what they are today.

So, 'officially' there is only 2% inflation. For those of us that NEED to check prices and PLAN budgets, 2% is a joke.


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## Geek999

Actually there are a variety of inflation indexes. My favorite is the GDP deflator, but the most common is the consumer price index CPI. Let's use the CPI for this as it is the most widely known index, with all components included.


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> I'd say anyone who predicts something as dramatic as hyperinflation within a year is making a pretty brave prediction. I'm certainly not that prescient.
> 
> Let's have a bit of definition to make it easy though. If inflation reaches 10% by the end of 2014 John Williams and BillS are right. If inflation is 5-10% and rising they're right on the direction and wrong on the timing and we all ought to start worrying about high inflation. If inflation stays under 5% the prediction was flat out wrong.
> 
> Next question is what to do about it. Sounds like the recommendation is to buy gold and possibly other preps. Is that correct? Most of us would probably accumulate some preps during the year anyhow.


No, don't consider me right if inflation is 5-10% by the end of the year. Real inflation is 10% NOW. That's not counting the massive price increases in health insurance that many people are experiencing right now. Consider me right if inflation is at least 40% and gasoline is at least $5 a gallon. But John Williams predicts panic selling of the dollar before the end of the second quarter. I'd consider him wrong if we don't see prices double by the end of June.

What to do? Make sure you're fully prepared. Put your extra money in gold and silver that you personally hold.


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## Geek999

BillS said:


> No, don't consider me right if inflation is 5-10% by the end of the year. Real inflation is 10% NOW. That's not counting the massive price increases in health insurance that many people are experiencing right now. Consider me right if inflation is at least 40% and gasoline is at least $5 a gallon. But John Williams predicts panic selling of the dollar before the end of the second quarter. I'd consider him wrong if we don't see prices double by the end of June.
> 
> What to do? Make sure you're fully prepared. Put your extra money in gold and silver that you personally hold.


By what measure that we can all follow is inflation 10% now?


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## LincTex

Geek999 said:


> By what measure that we can all follow is inflation 10% now?


Perhaps he is saying the combined cost of living has increased over the last 12 months by 10% - which shouldn't be very far from the truth!


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## Geek999

LincTex said:


> Perhaps he is saying the combined cost of living has increased over the last 12 months by 10% - which shouldn't be very far from the truth!


What you are describing is what the CPI is supposed to measure. You could argue about how accurate the CPI is, but it isn't that far off. Is there any published measure of inflation that is even close? Above 5% currently?


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## catdog6949

*Food Prices in Seattle......*

Yes there is "Inflation" , how much, well sourcream, went from $1.00 to $1.25 on sale now reg., $1.89....
Cheap bread $1.00 before, now $1.39!
3 lb's chub burger $8.65 was$7.49 last month

I get sick everytime I go shopping, so today, I went too the, "Nieghborhood Food Bank", I swore I would never go again, but had too? While there, a 50'ish yr old lady came out, and got into her, "Mercede's", made me sick!

Cat and Turtle :scratch


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## Geek999

If food goes up and fuel goes down you've had price changes, not inflation. To measure inflation you need a broad index. There are a bunch of them available.


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## Geek999

Woody said:


> There is the 'official' inflation numbers - NOT counting food and energy - then there is actual inflation that some of us have to deal with.


That is actually incorrect. The CPI uses both food and fuel. That is the "official" CPI. Food and fuel tend to be volatile prices. They'll go up one month and down the next, so the Fed tend to back those figures out for their internal planning purposes.

I have suggested using the full CPI, not the CPI without food and fuel.


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## hiwall

Every person has a different inflation rate. We all buy different things. A person that spends 80% of their money on food and those food items they commonly buy go way up then they suffer high inflation. My largest expenditure is insurance (vehicle and health). When my health insurance more than doubled I suffered very high inflation. Personal inflation can and usually does vary quite a bit from national figures (which I don't believe at all).


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## Geek999

It is true that one person's finances may be more affected than another by changing prices. However, if someone says "we are going to experience 10% inflation next year", we need an agreed upon measure, presumably a reresentative index, to be able to say a year from now that prediction was true of false. Otherwise you'll have one person saying "inflation was 15% last year" and another saying "there was no inflation last year".

I suggest using the full CPI as it is widely published and familiar to the broadest audience and is based on the purchases of consumers.

If you can't agree on a measure of inflation then any prediction of inflation is totally meaningless.


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## PrepN4Good

Geek999 said:


> That is actually incorrect. The CPI uses both food and fuel. That is the "official" CPI. *Food and fuel tend to be volatile prices. They'll go up one month and down the next*, so the Fed tend to back those figures out for their internal planning purposes.
> 
> I have suggested using the full CPI, not the CPI without food and fuel.


I beg to differ.... I have seen NO food prices go down in the past 2 years where I live, unless you are possibly talking about seasonal produce....

Putting out an "inflation rate" is a scam, if it doesn't include the important stuff that the average person uses on a daily basis. JMHO. :ignore:


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## Geek999

So do you have a differnt index than the CPI you care to suggest? If not any discussion of inflation or hyperinflation is meaningless.


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## GaryS

There is the open and measurable inflation, but there is also hidden inflation.

Look at such products as paper towels and TP. In the past year, the brands I buy have changed in both quantity and size, while the price has inched up within the reported inflation rate. A snack food I buy has reduced the quantity inside, but the price per package remains the same. Products that used to come in 16oz packages now come with only 14ozs. 

Those who monitor the CPI may state so in the data, but if one product is discontinued and replaced by a similar product from the same company, I doubt they measure and adjust the reported numbers to be truly accurate.


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## Geek999

If you reject all measures as being inaccurate then you can't claim any specific inflation amount occurred even after the fact.

This thread started with a claim that we will see not only inflation, but hyperinflation, within 2014. How do you propose we be able to say the prediction was correct, close, or wrong a year from now?

I've proposed using the CPI. If you don't like the CPI, then what do you want to use to verify the prediction?

The way folks are responding one could claim we had deflation in 2013 and there would be no way to say that statement was wrong.


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## hiwall

I believe if we do see actual hyperinflation no one will argue the fact. Plus hyperinflation always in history has had disastrous results, has it not? Here is a description I found for hyperinflation.



> defined hyperinflation as starting in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and it ending when the monthly inflation rate drops below 50% and stays that way for at least a year.


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## LincTex

> defined hyperinflation as starting in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and it ending when the monthly inflation rate drops below 50% and stays that way for at least a year.


I'll venture a guess that it's rapidly becoming hyper before you hit 50%.

The jump from 10% to 15% is a defined period of time, but 15% to 20% is shorter still, and before you know it its 30%, and nearly 40% seemingly overnight...

Once "the train starts rollin" it sure is hard to stop!!


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> By what measure that we can all follow is inflation 10% now?


Shadowstats.com calculates inflation based on the way it was calculated in 1980. They hate inflation as 10% per year right now.


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> That is actually incorrect. The CPI uses both food and fuel. That is the "official" CPI. Food and fuel tend to be volatile prices. They'll go up one month and down the next, so the Fed tend to back those figures out for their internal planning purposes.
> 
> I have suggested using the full CPI, not the CPI without food and fuel.


The CPI is designed to understate inflation. It used to measure a fixed basket of goods but that's been changed. Now they allow items to be substituted with no effect on inflation. So if you now eat hamburger because steak is too expensive that's not counted as inflation.

Here are some links about why it's inaccurate:

http://www.mybudget360.com/inflatio...s-oer-measure-standard-of-living-costs-money/

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/04/cpi-understates-inflation.html

The next major step taken in the 1990s was around the issue of Hedonics. As technology advances, items like Computers and Televisions become more sophisticated. This increase in sophistication that consumers enjoy is not taken into effect by the actual price of the goods. Therefore, the CPI must be adjusted downward to capture the hidden price reduction from 'hedonic improvement' or so the theory goes. As an example, a Computer in the year 2008 is much more sophisticated than one from the year 2002. Therefore the theoretical price of the computer in 2008 must be adjusted upward to reflect this. Since the actual price is less than this theoretical price, the difference serves to reduce the measurement of inflation.


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## Geek999

BillS said:


> The CPI is designed to understate inflation. It used to measure a fixed basket of goods but that's been changed. Now they allow items to be substituted with no effect on inflation. So if you now eat hamburger because steak is too expensive that's not counted as inflation.
> 
> Here are some links about why it's inaccurate:
> 
> http://www.mybudget360.com/inflatio...s-oer-measure-standard-of-living-costs-money/
> 
> http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
> 
> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/04/cpi-understates-inflation.html
> 
> The next major step taken in the 1990s was around the issue of Hedonics. As technology advances, items like Computers and Televisions become more sophisticated. This increase in sophistication that consumers enjoy is not taken into effect by the actual price of the goods. Therefore, the CPI must be adjusted downward to capture the hidden price reduction from 'hedonic improvement' or so the theory goes. As an example, a Computer in the year 2008 is much more sophisticated than one from the year 2002. Therefore the theoretical price of the computer in 2008 must be adjusted upward to reflect this. Since the actual price is less than this theoretical price, the difference serves to reduce the measurement of inflation.


So what measure of inflation do you want to use? Without some agreed upon measure there is no way to conclude a year from now that the prediction of hyperinflation was correct.

I am quite content to use something other than the CPI, but it needs to be decided, not made up after the fact.


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## Woody

Geek999 said:


> If you reject all measures as being inaccurate then you can't claim any specific inflation amount occurred even after the fact.
> 
> This thread started with a claim that we will see not only inflation, but hyperinflation, within 2014. How do you propose we be able to say the prediction was correct, close, or wrong a year from now?
> 
> I can't say anything to this, as no one can. It is speculation.
> 
> I've proposed using the CPI. If you don't like the CPI, then what do you want to use to verify the prediction?
> 
> Something other than a government calculated figure?
> 
> The way folks are responding one could claim we had deflation in 2013 and there would be no way to say that statement was wrong.


Alright, alright, alright.... Geek. You obviously make your money off of other folks money and do not do your own shopping. If you had had a 'fixed budget' for food and... what is it called... Damn, a bit late for me... electricity, gas... fuel... You would be seeing this from a much different prospective. ENERGY!!!! I finally remembered it.

When you go to the grocery store, and have to buy gas to get there, you have say... $50 budgeted for the week. For most of us, that $50 is non-negotiable. Ground beef goes up $0.50 a pound, we can buy that much less of it. Gas goes up OR DOWN, it is still only $50 you have. We all know the energy market is manipulated by speculators. It didn't cost $.25 more a gallon to extract a gallon of gas today than it did yesterday. It is a matter of what the speculators say it is worth. They do not take physical possession of it, only paper, or computer bites, saying they bought it. Supply and demand? Please. Give us little folks another phrase to go by now, that one is pretty old.

So, what would I base the CPI on? Taking my $50 and trying to buy what I bought last month compared to what it will buy this month. *MY* CPI is not based on what the average price of goods shipped from somewhere are, they are based on what it COSTS me to stay alive based on my salary... Which, by the way, is not actually linked to the CPI of anything in particular.


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## LincTex

I look at "personal inflation" this way.

A man in the Aerospace industry 1969 makes $10,000 a year, and can afford to buy a new $3000 car and get a mortgage on a $12,000 house. All his bills are paid, and though he lives comfortably he isn't "rich".

Come to present day - we should be able to multiply everything by ten and get number that are actually really close ... The car is now $30,000 and the house is $120,000.

The PROBLEM is that the pay _hasn't increased_ over the years to match everything else!! I got a 48 cent raise last year along with a "just be thankful you still have a job here" comment. Since our company just had a round of layoffs, and we get our annual evals in Feb, I am expecting the same again. But I make NOWHERE near $100,000. (no $30K car in the driveway either, though)


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## Geek999

BillS said:


> Shadowstats.com calculates inflation based on the way it was calculated in 1980. They hate inflation as 10% per year right now.


So is this your preferred measure? From a look at the site it appears you have to be a subscriber to get their numbers, which appear to based on the CPI anyhow.


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## Geek999

Woody said:


> Alright, alright, alright.... Geek. You obviously make your money off of other folks money and do not do your own shopping. If you had had a 'fixed budget' for food and... what is it called... Damn, a bit late for me... electricity, gas... fuel... You would be seeing this from a much different prospective. ENERGY!!!! I finally remembered it.
> 
> When you go to the grocery store, and have to buy gas to get there, you have say... $50 budgeted for the week. For most of us, that $50 is non-negotiable. Ground beef goes up $0.50 a pound, we can buy that much less of it. Gas goes up OR DOWN, it is still only $50 you have. We all know the energy market is manipulated by speculators. It didn't cost $.25 more a gallon to extract a gallon of gas today than it did yesterday. It is a matter of what the speculators say it is worth. They do not take physical possession of it, only paper, or computer bites, saying they bought it. Supply and demand? Please. Give us little folks another phrase to go by now, that one is pretty old.
> 
> So, what would I base the CPI on? Taking my $50 and trying to buy what I bought last month compared to what it will buy this month. *MY* CPI is not based on what the average price of goods shipped from somewhere are, they are based on what it COSTS me to stay alive based on my salary... Which, by the way, is not actually linked to the CPI of anything in particular.


Woody, you clearly have no idea how I earn a living, or where I go shopping. Let's keep this to a discussion of the prediction that started the thread.

Knowing the price of ground beef went up tells me nothing about overall inflation as everything else could have gone down. You don't get to have your own CPI as that is again meaningless. If your CPI was 10% and my CPI was 2% any discussion of inflation just leads to disagreement as to where we are, let alone where we are going.

Now regarding your comments that "We all know the energy market is manipulated by speculators." You need to be clear on a couple of terms again. First, what is "manipulation"? If you mean the term in it's legal sense, then you should contact the District Attorney with your evidence. Next, who are you referring to as "speculators"? If you are referring simply to people who trade energy contracts, they are engaged in a regulated activity and the proper term is "traders" not "speculators". If you are referring to somebody else, then please be clear.

BTW: Speculation is simply making a trade that most will see as risky in an effort to make a large gain. It does not imply any illegal activity. If someone were able to "manipulate" a market, then their activity would not be particularly risky and they would not be speculating. So a person cannot simultaneously manipulate and speculate in a market. They can do one or the other, but not both at the same time.

As a result your statement degenerates into throwing around a bunch or derogatory terms to describe folks who earn a living in the energy markets. That's just an occupational bias.


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## Geek999

LincTex said:


> I look at "personal inflation" this way.
> 
> A man in the Aerospace industry 1969 makes $10,000 a year, and can afford to buy a new $3000 car and get a mortgage on a $12,000 house. All his bills are paid, and though he lives comfortably he isn't "rich".
> 
> Come to present day - we should be able to multiply everything by ten and get number that are actually really close ... The car is now $30,000 and the house is $120,000.
> 
> The PROBLEM is that the pay _hasn't increased_ over the years to match everything else!! I got a 48 cent raise last year along with a "just be thankful you still have a job here" comment. Since our company just had a round of layoffs, and we get our annual evals in Feb, I am expecting the same again. But I make NOWHERE near $100,000. (no $30K car in the driveway either, though)


That's quite well put. To put it more positively, if your income were to keep up with inflation it wouldn't be a problem as long as you didn't stuff a bunch of currency into a mattress in 1969 and expect it to have the same value today.


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## Woody

Geek999 said:


> Woody, you clearly have no idea how I earn a living, or where I go shopping. Let's keep this to a discussion of the prediction that started the thread.
> 
> Knowing the price of ground beef went up tells me nothing about overall inflation as everything else could have gone down. You don't get to have your own CPI as that is again meaningless. If your CPI was 10% and my CPI was 2% any discussion of inflation just leads to disagreement as to where we are, let alone where we are going.
> 
> Now regarding your comments that "We all know the energy market is manipulated by speculators." You need to be clear on a couple of terms again. First, what is "manipulation"? If you mean the term in it's legal sense, then you should contact the District Attorney with your evidence. Next, who are you referring to as "speculators"? If you are referring simply to people who trade energy contracts, they are engaged in a regulated activity and the proper term is "traders" not "speculators". If you are referring to somebody else, then please be clear.
> 
> BTW: Speculation is simply making a trade that most will see as risky in an effort to make a large gain. It does not imply any illegal activity. If someone were able to "manipulate" a market, then their activity would not be particularly risky and they would not be speculating. So a person cannot simultaneously manipulate and speculate in a market. They can do one or the other, but not both at the same time.
> 
> As a result your statement degenerates into throwing around a bunch or derogatory terms to describe folks who earn a living in the energy markets. That's just an occupational bias.


We are obviously from two different worlds and I am done.


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## labotomi

Woody said:


> We are obviously from two different worlds and I am done.


Everyone's situation is different. You shouldn't demand everyone view the world through glasses tinted by yours.


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## Geek999

Economic collapse is a concern to many here. We also had a serious crisis in 2008 that we have not forgotten that has shaken the faith of many in our economic system.

At the same time most Americans, and probably most people in other countries, have a minimum of economic or financial background. Often we don't trust the things we don't understand. Discussions of economic matters will continue to be important until such time as either an economic collapse occurs, or it fades from everyone's concerns.

Inflation can be measured. We'll know in a year whether the prediction was right. I've already stated that I'll consider it absolutely correct if inflation, as measured by the CPI, reaches 10% or above, but that I don't expect that to happen. BillS is saying 40% by John Williams index and finds John Williams persuasive. Anyone else have a view?


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## RevWC

Geek999 said:


> Economic collapse is a concern to many here. We also had a serious crisis in 2008 that we have not forgotten that has shaken the faith of many in our economic system.
> 
> At the same time most Americans, and probably most people in other countries, have a minimum of economic or financial background. Often we don't trust the things we don't understand. Discussions of economic matters will continue to be important until such time as either an economic collapse occurs, or it fades from everyone's concerns.
> 
> Inflation can be measured. Anyone else have a view?


And unemployment is at 6.7%..I certainly believe all the numbers...not...


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## Geek999

RevWC said:


> And unemployment is at 6.7%..I certainly believe all the numbers...not...


The unemployment rate has a numerator and a denominator. It is simple math. The problem is what meaning do you attach to it, and what is the cause of each component number? As anyone watching the news is aware, so many people are giving up on the prospect of getting a job that the denominator is shrinking. As a result, the rate may be improving, but the components of the rate are depressing to anyone with a pulse.

We have fewer people working today than when Obama took office. That is dismal economic performance. What we need is a growing number of jobs and growing numbers of people employed.

This is one of the things that has held inflation down so far. I don't think it will improve enough in the next year to allow inflation to take off, which is why I don't agree with the John Williams prediction.


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## hiwall

> This is one of the things that has held inflation down so far. I don't think it will improve enough in the next year to allow inflation to take off


this I agree with. If no one has any money it would be very hard to have inflation. makes sense to me.


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> So is this your preferred measure? From a look at the site it appears you have to be a subscriber to get their numbers, which appear to based on the CPI anyhow.


No, I got those numbers for free.


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> This is one of the things that has held inflation down so far. I don't think it will improve enough in the next year to allow inflation to take off, which is why I don't agree with the John Williams prediction.


With all the Fed money printing you won't need an improving economy to have inflation. The dollar is losing value because there's too many dollars chasing too few goods.

Right now, with the dollar as the world's reserve currency, there are trillions of dollars parked in foreign banks that aren't part of the US economy. When foreign countries and investors lose confidence in the dollar and dump them, all those dollars will hit the US economy. We'll see huge increases in the cost of food and gasoline. Probably on a daily basis.


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## Geek999

BillS said:


> With all the Fed money printing you won't need an improving economy to have inflation. The dollar is losing value because there's too many dollars chasing too few goods.
> 
> Right now, with the dollar as the world's reserve currency, there are trillions of dollars parked in foreign banks that aren't part of the US economy. When foreign countries and investors lose confidence in the dollar and dump them, all those dollars will hit the US economy. We'll see huge increases in the cost of food and gasoline. Probably on a daily basis.


Sounds like a reasonable argument, particularly if no policy changes are made to correct the trend, but I suspect it will take more than a year to go from where we are now to that result.


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## LincTex

I once watched a Dutch movie on NetFlix about the Asian dump of US dollars. I can't find it now. Here is some collapse related light watching...


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> Sounds like a reasonable argument, particularly if no policy changes are made to correct the trend, but I suspect it will take more than a year to go from where we are now to that result.


I don't think that any policy changes are politically possible to fix the problem. We need massive cuts to entitlements but spending has drastically increased under Obama. Repealing Obamacare would do a lot for the economy but that won't happen either.

I think the big wildcard with hyperinflation is how long it takes before panic selling of the dollar begins. It's possible that the slowing economy will lead to a declining velocity of the dollar. That could offset more money printing.


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## Geek999

BillS said:


> I don't think that any policy changes are politically possible to fix the problem. We need massive cuts to entitlements but spending has drastically increased under Obama. Repealing Obamacare would do a lot for the economy but that won't happen either.
> 
> I think the big wildcard with hyperinflation is how long it takes before panic selling of the dollar begins. It's possible that the slowing economy will lead to a declining velocity of the dollar. That could offset more money printing.


Slowing velocity is exactly what occurred in 2008. That's what triggered the recent Fed programs.


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## Meerkat

FatTire said:


> ill never again be a republican or a democrat, if you want to be part of the divisive, tyrannical corporatist system, have at it..
> 
> i like that we can find common ground tho!


 We can agree on this too.I have not seen anything that crawled in or out of that house of ill repute I'd ever vote for again. Including the so called independents.


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## Meerkat

Geek999 said:


> Slowing velocity is exactly what occurred in 2008. That's what triggered the recent Fed programs.


 I think most of us are fed up with the feds and their masters.


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## Geek999

Meerkat said:


> I think most of us are fed up with the feds and their masters.


The issue at hand is where their policies will lead us, not whether they are good policies. John Williams expects hyperinflation within a year and that is what the OP started the thread with.


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