# Futures in bartering - prepping for economic collapse



## invision

Ok, so we all have food, water, BOBs, BILs or BOL, guns, ammo, duplicate supplies... And most of us realize the importance of PMs for rebuilding trade and/or for bartering...

So how much face value do you think is needed for each?

Dimes
Quarters
Halves
1 oz coins or bars


Just curious here to see how what you all think would be an adequate supply is of each?

My thoughts are

$200 in Dimes
$150 in quarters
$50 in halves
And as many as possible for 1oz - 100+ ounces


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## gabbyj310

When I buy extra "stuff",I always try to get a little something extra for my "barter' stock.I used to buy liquor on sale,when my daughter said"Mom" you need to buy the small ones for barter"HMMM tell me that girl sure is smart! I think also ,coffee,chocolate,cigarettes,seeds cleaning stuff(as in soap and toothpaste)and those little travel packets of asprin.


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## invision

gabbyj310 said:


> When I buy extra "stuff",I always try to get a little something extra for my "barter' stock.I used to buy liquor on sale,when my daughter said"Mom" you need to buy the small ones for barter"HMMM tell me that girl sure is smart! I think also ,coffee,chocolate,cigarettes,seeds cleaning stuff(as in soap and toothpaste)and those little travel packets of asprin.


Well what I meant is how much PMs, not all the durable goods, such as liquor or toilet paper...

I won't say nor do I expect anyone on here to volunteer their actual numbers, but I am wondering about being the fastest to rebuild afterwards... CDsm, Stocks, Bonds and dollars could die a quick or slow and painful death... PMs could be used as "cash" quickly until a new currency is determined. I am just wondering how much is adequate enough... My numbers quoted were a guess... Anyone else?


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## LincTex

invision said:


> PMs could be used as "cash" quickly until a new currency is determined. I am just wondering how much is adequate enough...


How about _all available extra cash_? :sssh:

The bars and rounds are for a hedge only; for if/when a new currency stabilizes can be sold for "new currency".

You need at least $200 in face (which you already have) which converts to about $5,000 (when junk silver was selling for $25 face). I think that's about the limit for "necessity". Everything extra is a "luxury".

It is also going to depend on what you need to buy in the future.... which depends on what you already have RIGHT NOW (in goods). You have folks like Gypsy Sue and MMM that could probably live the rest of their lives without needing any more money, ever!

It is a LOT easier if some form of money exists when a barter becomes too lopsided (to balance the exchange)... but how much face you need depends entirely on what your future needs will realistically be.


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## ZoomZoom

invision - what does that coinage you listed add up to in ounces of silver?

Besides trade/barter, what about a nest egg of PM's in reserve for your other financial obligations? The heck with the Cable TV and optional things but what about mortgage, any car payments, possibly property taxes and such. I'd expect banks and the gov't would accept PM's as payment. Hate to lose your house or car because your paper money is no longer any good.


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## LincTex

Remember, you can experience inflation even in a small "village" economy.

If you are in a small community of say, 50 people, and you are buying what you need from others for a year or so with silver coins.... if those folks are not spending them *elsewhere* they will no longer have any use for your coins. You will have to offer higher and higher amounts to get the goods you want.

At that point, goods will become more important/valuable than money.


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## LincTex

ZoomZoom said:


> invision - what does that coinage you listed add up to in ounces of silver?


Junk silver coins are 90%, so you need about $1.15 to $1.20 face value per Troy Oz.


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## cowboyhermit

I agree with others, it really depends on one's situation, a person with a reasonably self-sufficient homestead is going to be in a completely different situation from someone who is living in a city currently.

For instance we have more food than we could ever use and after shtf if anyone is trading/bartering we will be. One of my real concerns, as mentioned are taxes/fees, throughout history even as recently as the great depression many people who were "self sufficient" lost their land or sold it because they could not pay the tax. Even in many cities you could buy houses for outrageously cheap prices because people couldn't pay the tax. I wouldn't count of the gov. accepting pm but there are ways to convert to whatever currency and pay the bill immediately (in a hyper-inflation situation for instance).


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## ZoomZoom

Thanks LT. 
If I have this right:
$400 in coin listed, that's adding up (to me) as 340 oz.
To buy that $400 will really cost you at today's price around $6500.

Sound right?


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## GrinnanBarrett

A silver dollar or silver eagle is one ounce of silver
half dollars (Pre 64) you need 2 to equal an ounce 
Quarters you will need 5 to equal an ounce
Dimes you need 14

there are some coins that were minted as 35 to 40 percent silver in the pre 64 period
A Kennedy half dollar requires 7 coins to make an ounce of silver
Wartime Nickels you need 19 to equal an ounce of silver.

I have to agree with LincTex on this one. I think we are over thinking the value of coins. There will be a time when they have value but during a real SHTF experience a can of beans makes up for a lot of sins. I don't want to seem crude but if things truly get bad you will see women selling themselves to get food for their kids. They won't be looking for silver dimes. 

Do I have junk silver? yes some. But I prefer to put my efforts into things I can use or trade. Also into things that I can make things with. 

The other bad side to precious metals is the price can fluctuate wildly along with the markets. Too many people get into metal or the stock market who have no idea of what they are doing. I bought my silver before the Hunts tried to corner the market years ago. It was under $5 an ounce. it can go up and it will come down. Markets are like roller coasters and you better have a strong stomach for a wild ride some days. Most novice investors buy and sell in panic mode. 

Markets are for money you can afford to lose. That sounds crazy but it is a real fact. I have seen guys and girls borrow money to put into metal and stocks. It all looks great when someone is telling you about the killing they made in the market or on gold or futures. It is sort of like gambling in Las Vegas. The house always has the edge. Smart people set aside a certain amount they are willing to lose and go play. If they win great but if they lose that $200 or so they walk away. Be smart when you buy. GB


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## LincTex

GrinnanBarrett said:


> Do I have junk silver? yes some. But I prefer to put my efforts into things I can use or trade. Also into things that I can make things with.


Yep... when reading the original post, what I was really thinking (at least for me) is: "How many boxes of welding rods do I need, and how much would be an adequate supply of each type? (LOL!)



invision said:


> Just curious here to see how what you all think would be an adequate supply is of each?


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## MDsapper

well if everything goes down hill then the price of gold and silver will depend on the people, if they covet metals then you will be able to get more from them as compared to somebody who has no need for it.


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## readytogo

Futures in bartering - prepping for economic collapse or a total degrading society, if you need money in those scenarios 9 times out of ten you need it to buy something; food, repair/build something, so better than money it will be knowledge to barter with, so I will sale you the food that I have grown or repair or build with my experiences learn, something that can`t never be taken away ,history will tell you that before money there was ,Bartering and that Gold was only used as a ornament.


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## invision

Well, guys, if you re-read my post  , I said duplicates in place - meaning extra durable and non-durable goods ready for barter - from food to TP to liquor to welding rods...  I figure 100% of you, like me, have extras in place... and yes LincTex, I agree there are a few on here that wouldn't need anything else to keep going.. (wish I were them, but not going to happen)...

I think my preps are "decent" - I know in some areas I probably have it better than some, and in some areas I have it worse than some... As mentioned a very few will have everything that they need and that is the core reason there will be a high demand for barter to be established quickly... and I agree during the SHTF and probably for 3-6 months after SHTF bartering will be those type of items mentioned - a can of beans or whatever... 

However, as time passes, things calm down, the bad guys run off or killed, barter fairs will start popping up - so if your going to a "barter fair" and you need more TP and have say bring 6 cans of peaches and 4 packs of new socks and a new pair of size 10 work books. The guy who has the market on TP doesn't want your canned peaches, socks, or boots that you have to offer, but wants .22LR ammo only, then you either have to travel back to your home for the ammo if you have any or find someone who has .22LR ammo at the fair, BUT they must also want your canned peaches, socks or boots... See the headache??? 

So in my minds eye, a currency will need to be put back into place pretty quickly... yes you are going to have to have the whole "community" buy into the idea of a partial fixed pricing structure. Meaning if I have TP for sale, I am willing to take 3 dimes a roll or I "Need" 12 new pairs of socks... and business will be a mixed format of barter of items and labor as well as for a currency... I think as time passes it will only be human nature that forces us back into some type of currency - look at history as a prime example - however until that time comes PMs will be used to fix a price to an object.

For me personally, I see myself trying to be the one who supplies, organizes & secures the barter fair location, along with a booth selling items/services as well... I don't know how that will all work out, but I can see that in me just from the businessman I am... I am in fringe rural, so I think that is best of both worlds - meaning I am "somewhat" off the beaten path but I am still close enough to enough population to hopefully get what I need if I need it... 

This is the reason behind my question... I was reading a book the other day where a community decided to use the old greenback to setup a fixed pricing structure since they didn't have a printing press to make a currency that would not be easily forged... I thought, gee, now really? Then I read another book about how a commuity wanted to re-establish a bank, where gold and silver would be brought in to "aquire" their currency, and could be traded at anytime for their gold/silver back- meaning they would only release the amount of currency equal to the amount of gold or silver held at the bank.. My thought on that was ok, one issue - word gets out, now you have one giant target for repeat raids... Hell, think about it, a bank with 1,000-10,000 ounces of gold sitting there. only 5-10 people guarding it.... really?

So that got me thinking as to what is the easiest way to get a currency back and I thought silver over gold because of the inherit lower value... easier to trade for smaller items... So, how much would be needed to re-establish yourself where you are in life right now... If you are in a position of means, you will want to remain in a position of means, if you aren't but want to get ahead p-SHTF, then this could be a way to accomplish that... 

The more I think about it, where I am in life, where I would want to be p-SHTF, I think I need to re-adjust my numbers some...

Face Value Item
$500-700 Dimes
$500-700 Quarters
$250-400 Halves (90%)

As for Silver Eagles, 1 ounce bars, as well as any 1oz Gold - yes I agree Linc that these would be used to buy back into the system...


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## LincTex

invision said:


> The more I think about it, where I am in life, where I would want to be p-SHTF, I think I need to re-adjust my numbers some...
> Face Value Item
> $500-700 Dimes
> $500-700 Quarters
> $250-400 Halves (90%)


That's about $15,000 or so at current prices. 
If you can swing it, it may be a safe hedge.

I would also like to be the swap organizer, since I do so much of it now. 
I would need a lot of extra security, though. 
That means from each trade I need a "cut" to pay for the extra security and management of the location.


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## invision

LincTex said:


> That's about $15,000 or so at current prices.
> If you can swing it, it may be a safe hedge.
> 
> I would also like to be the swap organizer, since I do so much of it now.
> I would need a lot of extra security, though.
> That means from each trade I need a "cut" to pay for the extra security and management of the location.


Don't have that much in junk... But ASE makes up for what I don't have in junk...

Yep, that is how I would see it... Location & Security = % of cut for each vendor... Security should not be issue with group, currently 8-10 that can shoot and are level headed... I wouldn't be out to make a killing on %, something fair - right now people who use merchant services pay between 5-7%, so 4-5%???? So if a vendor took in $10 in face value dimes during a day, 5 dimes... If they took in 24 fresh eggs - 1 egg...


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## mojo4

My formula was to have 10% of your yearly income in PM's. Your taxes are roughly 2-3% of yearly income (unless you live far below or above your means!) And having 10% should help you survive 18 to 24 months of collapse. Any more time than that and if gov and order isn't restored then paying taxes is just a scary story you tell kids around the fire. Also if chaos still reigns then PM's, cash, stocks bonds and CD's pretty much are worthless. Its down to beans, booze, bullets and bandaids as currency then.


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## cowboyhermit

I can see a lot of problems with the security for x% of sales, not they are insurmountable but in the past (over 100yrs) that concept hasn't worked too well. There are issues with people making side deals, what if things are bartered without pm, etc. I see the old trading post or merchant being a lot more likely, especially in the near term. Owner (group or individual) buys and sells from customers in a secure location (mobile or stationary), this allows for less transactions to fill the needs and better distributes the goods imo. 

Of course small scale person to person transactions will never disappear, they never have.


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## Caribou

There is no magic X amount of PM's to have in your preps. Your preps should be balanced. I have heard suggestions that you should have between 5% and 15% of your assets in metals. If you think things are going bad you might want to increase the percentage. Not everyone can have $15,000 in metals. Some people can afford many times that.


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## haley4217

Originally Posted by invision View Post

The more I think about it, where I am in life, where I would want to be p-SHTF, I think I need to re-adjust my numbers some...
Face Value Item
$500-700 Dimes
$500-700 Quarters
$250-400 Halves (90%)



LincTex said:


> That's about $15,000 or so at current prices.
> If you can swing it, it may be a safe hedge.
> 
> I would also like to be the swap organizer, since I do so much of it now.
> I would need a lot of extra security, though.
> That means from each trade I need a "cut" to pay for the extra security and management of the location.


Not to quibble with your price calculation LincTex if you took the mid-point it would be closer to $20,000 at todays spot price, but would probably end up costing closer to $34,000 when you consider all of the add-on's to spot price. (Shipping, dealer markup, tax, handling, profit, etc. etc.)

But in line with the conversation here would silver be a good barter item or could some of the $20 - $30K go better to other items that would have a greater barter value? I took on a little project to come up with an estimate of what silver might be worth in purchasing power. To do this I went at it two ways, what was $1.00 worth in silver and how has inflation affected this $1.00. For a significant period of time $1.00 was the equivalent of 1 - Silver Dollar (I.E. the silver certificate). Without going into that history, up until 1968 the value of a silver dollar was effectively $1.00 USD, not a Fed Note. So taking a $1.00 per effective ounce of value in 1968 and factoring in inflationary affect between then and 2013 the purchasing value of one silver dollar (.99999 ounce) would be $6.69 today.

The second approach was to take the value of silver over a period from 1970 to 2013 and find the median or mid-point. Then by going to www.measuringworth.com, I was able to use their calculations of the value of a dollar in terms of Real Value, Labor Value and Income Value and reach a median or mid-point there as well over the same time period. So multiplying the median value of silver over the period by the median dollar value we would find that the purchasing power of an ounce of silver through this method is about $8.85 in today's dollar.

Disclaimer - I am not an economist, scientist, financial advisor, FED manager, banker, or statistician. I'm simply trying to figure out how I might determine a value for silver when the dollar is no longer a suitable comparison.

When using the web site Measuring Worth, I found a quote by Adam Smith who wrote the book "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776. A quote from this book:

"What every thing really costs to the man who wants to acquire it, is the toil and trouble of acquiring it. What every thing is really worth to the man who has acquired it, and who wants to dispose of it, or exchange it for something else, is the toil and trouble which it can save to himself, and which it can impose upon other people."

What will silver be worth when it comes time to barter silver for goods or labor in a post SHTF America?


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## invision

haley4217 said:


> Originally Posted by invision View Post
> 
> The more I think about it, where I am in life, where I would want to be p-SHTF, I think I need to re-adjust my numbers some...
> Face Value Item
> $500-700 Dimes
> $500-700 Quarters
> $250-400 Halves (90%)
> 
> Not to quibble with your price calculation LincTex if you took the mid-point it would be closer to $20,000 at todays spot price, but would probably end up costing closer to $34,000 when you consider all of the add-on's to spot price. (Shipping, dealer markup, tax, handling, profit, etc. etc.)
> 
> But in line with the conversation here would silver be a good barter item or could some of the $20 - $30K go better to other items that would have a greater barter value? I took on a little project to come up with an estimate of what silver might be worth in purchasing power. To do this I went at it two ways, what was $1.00 worth in silver and how has inflation affected this $1.00. For a significant period of time $1.00 was the equivalent of 1 - Silver Dollar (I.E. the silver certificate). Without going into that history, up until 1968 the value of a silver dollar was effectively $1.00 USD, not a Fed Note. So taking a $1.00 per effective ounce of value in 1968 and factoring in inflationary affect between then and 2013 the purchasing value of one silver dollar (.99999 ounce) would be $6.69 today.
> 
> The second approach was to take the value of silver over a period from 1970 to 2013 and find the median or mid-point. Then by going to www.measuringworth.com, I was able to use their calculations of the value of a dollar in terms of Real Value, Labor Value and Income Value and reach a median or mid-point there as well over the same time period. So multiplying the median value of silver over the period by the median dollar value we would find that the purchasing power of an ounce of silver through this method is about $8.85 in today's dollar.
> 
> Disclaimer - I am not an economist, scientist, financial advisor, FED manager, banker, or statistician. I'm simply trying to figure out how I might determine a value for silver when the dollar is no longer a suitable comparison.
> 
> When using the web site Measuring Worth, I found a quote by Adam Smith who wrote the book "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776. A quote from this book:
> 
> "What every thing really costs to the man who wants to acquire it, is the toil and trouble of acquiring it. What every thing is really worth to the man who has acquired it, and who wants to dispose of it, or exchange it for something else, is the toil and trouble which it can save to himself, and which it can impose upon other people."
> 
> What will silver be worth when it comes time to barter silver for goods or labor in a post SHTF America?


Nice work... And very interesting too... The quote also hit me as it made me think of my Mom's dad... He was a nationally recognized antique dealer and authoritative figure on antique clocks... The quote reminded me of his favorite saying "any item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it today, not yesterday or tomorrow but only today". Makes sense...

As for the price for that much junk - I would have to look but the average paid is probably around $23,000 or so... For my ASE purchases, their average is $26.75 per unit...

I had a little fun on EBay last night... Found a seller selling 4oz lots of junk - dimes and quarters only... They had them at buy now for $134 per 4 ounce with 6 of 10 still available. Looks like the ad is probably 20 days old or so... Sent a offer of $80 for 4 ounces... Got a reply - sorry but I can't go that low, how about $118 for 4 ounces? I replied back, I am sorry won't pay that much over spot, she came back, but I payed $96 for it, I can't go that low.. All I could think is " that is why it is a commodity and why if your only in it to buy/sell you better be able to hold long when prices go done".... I haven't replied to her...


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## LincTex

cowboyhermit said:


> I can see a lot of problems with the security for x% of sales, not they are insurmountable but in the past (over 100yrs) that concept hasn't worked too well.


Geez, thanks for shooting holes in my "Bartertown" dreams!











cowboyhermit said:


> I see the old trading post or merchant being a lot more likely, especially in the near term. Owner (group or individual) buys and sells from customers in a secure location (mobile or stationary), this allows for less transactions to fill the needs and better distributes the goods imo.


Not a bad idea. I could see running an old fashioned general store. Well, maybe all the "second hand" and "junk" stores will do well ATSHTF.


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## lazydaisy67

I think baby/feminine things will be pretty important. I currently am not stocking formula or diapers or what-not, but I would think that people would barter or pay a lot for things to take care of their babies. 

I also think hygiene products will be luxury items after a certain time period. A nice smelling liquid soap and a clean wash rag, deodorant, new toothbrush. Doesn't seem like much, but I think there will be a need later. Booze and smokes also are a must for barter. Any and all food is pretty obvious as well.


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## cowboyhermit

Sorry LincTex, of course barter town is the exception, I should have spelled that out The methane alone makes it viable
Of course nobody can know what will happen in a shtf scenario but it's safe to assume that one on one transactions will never disappear because they never have. The market described earlier with many buying and selling has been around a long time too, obviously, but mostly after currency was established. 
Having one or a few parties to do most of the buying and selling can help a lot for example with the classic "I have eggs to trade for milk but the guy with milk doesn't need eggs" scenario transactions can become much more "costly" in a less structured economy so it makes sense to simplify things.


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## invision

lazydaisy67 said:


> I think baby/feminine things will be pretty important. I currently am not stocking formula or diapers or what-not, but I would think that people would barter or pay a lot for things to take care of their babies.
> 
> I also think hygiene products will be luxury items after a certain time period. A nice smelling liquid soap and a clean wash rag, deodorant, new toothbrush. Doesn't seem like much, but I think there will be a need later. Booze and smokes also are a must for barter. Any and all food is pretty obvious as well.


I agree, having a 14 yr old girl who believes in being prepared now was happy to see I had supplies for her needs as well... There are literally tons of things we will all need and have forgotten. Like I agreed with earlier, only a small few might have everything they could possibly ever need, but even watching shows like "mountain men" - even they sometimes need something and often times labor assistance...


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## mosquitomountainman

I've always thought that we looked at this backwards. IF you believe the dollar is going to be worthless soon or TS is going to HTF, then the proper question would be* "how much cash should I have on hand?" *Once you determine that, it would behoove you to put everything else in something that would have value later. That would be materials, skills, PM's and everything/anything else that would be valuable in a collapsed economy.

So, how much cash should you have for the good times? Once you've met that goal put the rest of your efforts into long term investments that will keep you safe and supplied in a SHTF environment.

That's what we've done. We pay cash for everything which means we save up the money for large purchases or do without. We have enough cash put back to cover property taxes for three years. Everything else has gone toward self-sufficient living. In our opinion being debt free is one of the most important steps a person can pursue. Until that goal is reached concentrate on being able to live without money. (Work on your self-reliance/self-sufficiency skills. Our ancestors survived/thrived thousands of years without money or Wal Mart.)

Our life is set up so that we can provide everything else for ourselves if we must. Our lifestyle has gotten us some odd looks and raised eyebrows (and we've even been called "failures" by someone who is no longer a part of PS) from friends and relatives but we experience none of the stresses that they do over everyday life. To us, that's priceless and well worth the "sacrifices" we've made!


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## LincTex

invision said:


> even they sometimes need something and often times labor assistance...


That would be my main need. I suspect I will need to trade goods or silver for hired help.


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## haley4217

mosquitomountainman said:


> I've always thought that we looked at this backwards. IF you believe the dollar is going to be worthless soon or TS is going to HTF, then the proper question would be* "how much cash should I have on hand?" *Once you determine that It would behoove you to put everything else in something that would have value later. That would be materials, skills, PM's and everything/anything else that would be valuable in a collapsed economy.
> 
> So, how much cash should you have for the good times? Once you've met that goal put the rest of your efforts into long term investments that will keep you safe and supplied in a SHTF environment.


Very good point, IMHO! I, like you, am looking at this as to a point of how much cash to have on hand. This cash on hand is made up of greenbacks and PM coins. I believe, and it's been discussed elsewhere on the forum, that in a SHTF financial collapse the dollar bill will still have some use for a short time. Until the length and extent of the failure is know (and believed) by people we should be able to use our dollar bills to purchase some items. They may cost us more with the failing dollar bills but we should be able to use them.

Then comes the second part of the equation, PM backed coins either gold or silver, where the value of the metal in the coin gives it a value that can be equated to purchasing something. Again, it may be expense to purchase but we have some purchasing power.

This would likely then give way to bartering for materials other than PM's, including labor or skills.

My family tries to keep several months of bills worth of greenbacks on hand and baring emergency will be basically un-touched until we need them. Then would come the PM backed coins. Additionally, bulky but with some value, I am rolling nickels and keeping them. Currently, the nickel is the only minted coin in circulation where the value of the metal in the coin matches or exceeds the face value. (Presuming .9999 Silver dollars as not being minted for circulation)

Before I made the unfortunate choice of boxing up all of my PM backed coins and sending them off to Detroit as a loan to help solve their debt crisis, I had a little more than $700 in face value of silver coins. This was intended not as a way to grow wealth but instead to have what I believed to be about 3 or 4 months worth of purchasing power if needed.


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## mosquitomountainman

LincTex said:


> That would be my main need. I suspect I will need to trade goods or silver for hired help.


At that point it would be time to bring back apprentices and/or private schools. With the skills you have you could start a Voc. Tech. School and get paid by your students.


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## LincTex

haley4217 said:


> Currently, the nickel is the only minted coin in circulation where the value of the metal in the coin matches or exceeds the face value.


Pre -'82 copper pennies were worth about 1.6 cents each, I think around 1.3 cents now. I have maybe 40-50 pounds of them. Not precious, but still a metal of value.


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## LincTex

mosquitomountainman said:


> At that point it would be time to bring back apprentices and/or private schools. With the skills you have you could start a Voc. Tech. School and get paid by your students.


I imagine there will be some of that happening. It would be prudent to rebuild society quickly, and that requires knowledge. I would rather teach people to build their own forge and to make nails and horseshoes than be the only person making nails and horseshoes. There is value is being the only one in the area with a particular skill, but it can make you a target as well. I feel the more people I can get back to successful living, the better off I would be. I would be happy to trade labor for skills, though (in either direction)


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## haley4217

LincTex said:


> I imagine there will be some of that happening. It would be prudent to rebuild society quickly, and that requires knowledge. I would rather teach people to build their own forge and to make nails and horseshoes than be the only person making nails and horseshoes. There is value is being the only one in the area with a particular skill, but it can make you a target as well. I feel the more people I can get back to successful living, the better off I would be. I would be happy to trade labor for skills, though (in either direction)


Great point. Where I live farming and gardening is difficult at best. I've spent the last three years learning. What does and what doesn't work. Trying to learn to read nature and make decisions about what and when to plant based on what I see. Want to be able to grow successfully when I don't have the Internet or TV to determine what the weather might do. I hope that in a SHTF situation more people where I live will move to a sustainable living instead of looting. This will make my ammunition last longer.


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## LincTex

haley4217 said:


> I hope that in a SHTF situation more people where I live will move to a sustainable living instead of looting. This will make my ammunition last longer.


Depends on what part/area of Texas you live! I think the attitude of "all looters will be shot!" is pretty prevalent throughout the state. The only reason there is crime is because the police can't be everywhere and good folks are worried about civil suits in defensive shootings. I know that in Texas you can legally use a firearm to prevent property theft, but I wouldn't be so quick to do so. If the greedy tort lawyers went away I would have no problem defending my property with warranted deadly force.


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## Jerry D Young

Based on my research on pre-1965 circulated 90% silver US coins.
(To get round numbers I used 720 ounces per $1,000 face value of halves, quarters, and dimes. 715 ounces is more accepted, but make calculations much harder, and in the real world, until melting them back into bullion picks up again, I think the microscopic difference per coin won’t be a difference. When minted the total silver content was 723.4 ounces.)

With that disclaimer:

Dimes have 0.0720 ounces of silver or 13.8889 dimes for 1 ounce of silver
Quarters have 0.1800 ounces of silver or	5.5556 quarters for 1 ounce of silver
Halves have 0.3600 ounces of silver or	2.7778 halves for 1 ounce of silver
Dollars have 0.7734 ounces of silver or	1.2930 dollars for 1 ounce of silver 
Silver Eagles have 1.0000 ounces of silver or	1.0000 Eagle for 1 ounce of silver

Using a direct conversion, with silver at $20.00 spot:
A dime is worth	$1.44
A quarter is worth	$3.60
A half is worth	$7.20
A dollar is worth	$15.47

With these numbers in mind, and the fact that the conversion ratio of silver to goods will be widely variable at first, before stabilizing, I think dimes will be needed desperately for the small stuff. And halves, because of the fact that there are 40% silver ones out there, and not everyone will know the difference, I don’t plan on using them at all in the PAW. Others that want to, can. Just too much hassle for me. And the same goes for Silver Dollars. Going to be a lot of controversy over their value, as a lot of them are going to be in much better shape than others, and in most cases, very much better shape than dimes and quarters. Even halves.

So I plan to limit my accumulation to dimes, quarters, and Eagles. That isn’t to say I wouldn’t take the others in trade, but only in certain circumstances where the person with those coins understands and agrees to the value.

For up to $500 FRNs in silver, I would do:
50% in dimes
25% in quarters
25% in Eagles

Over $500 up to $2,000 I would do:
40% in dimes
30% in quarters
30% in Eagles

Over $2,000 I would do
25% in dimes
25% in quarters
50% in Eagles

Over $5,000 for PM’s I’d start adding gold with similar ratios to 1/10 ounce, ¼ ounce, and 1 ounce Gold Eagles as used for the silver dimes, quarters and Silver Eagles, keeping the gold/silver ratio at 80% silver / 20% gold up to $10,000, then 50%/50%, and ultimately 25% silver to 75% gold when you get into the big money.

Just my opinion.


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## LincTex

Jerry, the level to which you raise the discussion with your answers always amazes me!


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## invision

Jerry D Young said:


> Based on my research on pre-1965 circulated 90% silver US coins.
> (To get round numbers I used 720 ounces per $1,000 face value of halves, quarters, and dimes. 715 ounces is more accepted, but make calculations much harder, and in the real world, until melting them back into bullion picks up again, I think the microscopic difference per coin won't be a difference. When minted the total silver content was 723.4 ounces.)
> 
> With that disclaimer:
> 
> Dimes have 0.0720 ounces of silver or 13.8889 dimes for 1 ounce of silver
> Quarters have 0.1800 ounces of silver or	5.5556 quarters for 1 ounce of silver
> Halves have 0.3600 ounces of silver or	2.7778 halves for 1 ounce of silver
> Dollars have 0.7734 ounces of silver or	1.2930 dollars for 1 ounce of silver
> Silver Eagles have 1.0000 ounces of silver or	1.0000 Eagle for 1 ounce of silver
> 
> Using a direct conversion, with silver at $20.00 spot:
> A dime is worth	$1.44
> A quarter is worth	$3.60
> A half is worth	$7.20
> A dollar is worth	$15.47
> 
> With these numbers in mind, and the fact that the conversion ratio of silver to goods will be widely variable at first, before stabilizing, I think dimes will be needed desperately for the small stuff. And halves, because of the fact that there are 40% silver ones out there, and not everyone will know the difference, I don't plan on using them at all in the PAW. Others that want to, can. Just too much hassle for me. And the same goes for Silver Dollars. Going to be a lot of controversy over their value, as a lot of them are going to be in much better shape than others, and in most cases, very much better shape than dimes and quarters. Even halves.
> 
> So I plan to limit my accumulation to dimes, quarters, and Eagles. That isn't to say I wouldn't take the others in trade, but only in certain circumstances where the person with those coins understands and agrees to the value.
> 
> For up to $500 FRNs in silver, I would do:
> 50% in dimes
> 25% in quarters
> 25% in Eagles
> 
> Over $500 up to $2,000 I would do:
> 40% in dimes
> 30% in quarters
> 30% in Eagles
> 
> Over $2,000 I would do
> 25% in dimes
> 25% in quarters
> 50% in Eagles
> 
> Over $5,000 for PM's I'd start adding gold with similar ratios to 1/10 ounce, ¼ ounce, and 1 ounce Gold Eagles as used for the silver dimes, quarters and Silver Eagles, keeping the gold/silver ratio at 80% silver / 20% gold up to $10,000, then 50%/50%, and ultimately 25% silver to 75% gold when you get into the big money.
> 
> Just my opinion.


Just sent that to the printer!!!

Most impressive and Thank You for commenting on the thread!


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## mosquitomountainman

haley4217 said:


> Great point. Where I live farming and gardening is difficult at best. I've spent the last three years learning. What does and what doesn't work. ...


The three year learning curve seems to hold true in most new gardening endeavors. We want to scream every time someone says that "they'll just throw a few seeds in the ground if things get bad." We've gardened all of our lives and in our junk soil it still takes us three years to get it to where we want it.


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## BillS

I see PM's as having value during the hyperinflation that will lead up to the collapse. For bartering or buying big ticket items during the collapse. And for the time when the government regains control of the country and sets up a gold-backed currency.

You need cash for emergencies but beyond that you should have all your savings in PM's. All my silver is in dimes. Any additional purchases will be in half dollars since you can't find quarters anymore. 

But if I had an extra $5,000 to spend I'd buy mostly 1/10 oz gold coins.


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## invision

mosquitomountainman said:


> The three year learning curve seems to hold true in most new gardening endeavors. We want to scream every time someone says that "they'll just throw a few seeds in the ground if things get bad." We've gardened all of our lives and in our junk soil it still takes us three years to get it to where we want it.


Let me ask a serious question on that topic, I really can't put up a garden right now, but it is the first thing I would do as SHTF - depending on time of year. I have some of the needed materials in the basement to build raised beds along with several big bags of potting soil... I figured we would get 'some' results in the first year's growth but not to count on much, but by year two we would see much better results... Do you think that is realistic, not trying to put the garden in Ga soil, but using the top soil/potting soil instead... Do I need to adjust?

Edit:
Also want to add horse manure is plentiful around here to add to the nutrients in the soil...


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## helicopter5472

I wonder how long they would last if you could re-bag up bags of soil like Miracle Grow, and others. To have 20 or 30 big bags stored away at your BOL. If you don't have any real garden now, that would be a plus. Some old logs ready, or even large old tires will work to get started with..???


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## LincTex

helicopter5472 said:


> To have 20 or 30 big bags stored away at your BOL.


That won't make a very large raised bed, at all. 
When I think of having dirt hauled in to make a garden, I don't think "40 lb bags" AT ALL... I think in terms of "yards of dirt", and many of them.

You will also need water, how will you get it?


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## helicopter5472

LincTex said:


> That won't make a very large raised bed, at all.
> When I think of having dirt hauled in to make a garden, I don't think "40 lb bags" AT ALL... I think in terms of "yards of dirt", and many of them.
> 
> You will also need water, how will you get it?


Sorry It's not like your or my "Super Dave Complex" I have 56 ac. and can be "big truck" accessed. I'm thinking "the way off road areas" some people have picked/bought for their BOL. I am pretty sure that being preppers they already figured where and how to get/have water readily available to their site. Soon some sort of garden will be up at the top of their list. Having at least a small stock of useable soil, even though its very small can at least get you started. I have seen more tomatoes than you can eat in year, grown in a large tractor tire. (poor man's garden) It's a start, easier to transport to tough locations until you slowly get settled in. Just a thought...


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## mosquitomountainman

invision said:


> Let me ask a serious question on that topic, I really can't put up a garden right now, but it is the first thing I would do as SHTF - depending on time of year. I have some of the needed materials in the basement to build raised beds along with several big bags of potting soil... I figured we would get 'some' results in the first year's growth but not to count on much, but by year two we would see much better results... Do you think that is realistic, not trying to put the garden in Ga soil, but using the top soil/potting soil instead... Do I need to adjust?
> 
> Edit:
> Also want to add horse manure is plentiful around here to add to the nutrients in the soil...


This'll depend on several things.

First, are you an experienced gardener? My wife and I have been gardening all of our lives so we're aware of what to look for, what's best to plant, and how much work it is. We always advise beginning gardeners to start small and work their way up over the years. First time gardens take a lot of work just to keep the weeds at bay. But small gardens won't produce enough to feed you. If it's a survival or self-sufficient garden it has to be either big or (if you're an expert level gardener) extremely well organized worked. You can grow a lot of food in small spaces if you know what you're doing but it's going to take several years of gardening to get that good. It doesn't happen just by reading about it.

It isn't just about size and fertility either. Weeds and grass are usually a real pain in the u-know-where the first three years. A new patch of ground takes a lot of work and if you neglect it even one year you'll be starting all over again.

Second, what's the soil and growing season like where you'll be? In Kansas where I grew up the soil is generally good and the season long. Here in Montana the season is short and the soil (where we live) is extremely poor. We dump an unbelievable amount of compost (six to eight inches deep) on new sections of ground and must do that for three years to get respectable soil. (Actually, it's very good soil by then.) Without the compost we grow the best crop of rocks and weeds you've ever seen!

We grow mostly root crops because they are the most reliable and store the easiest (and we like them). In Kansas I could grow anything and everything.

Third, do you have water? I mean lots of water and some good ways to store and distribute it! You'd be surprised how many people have never thought of that. We've known people who've talked about irrigating their garden after TSHTF then got kind of sheepish when we asked what kind of well and pump that they had. Their water was from the rural water district and in a SHTF situation they wouldn't have any. Others had ponds but no pumps. These are details everyone needs to think about.

Fourth, what about pest control? Deer love fresh produce more than you do and they're sneaky! We've had deer within 30 feet of our dog and she never knew that they were there. I know this because she loves to chase deer and would have been after them like a rocket propelled grenade if she'd known. One night deer broke through our fence in one plot and ate all of our peas, soybeans, and green beans to the ground! We went to bed with a nice crop and awoke to stubs left in the ground!

It isn't just deer either. Bugs can be your worst enemy and the most difficult to combat. Again, think SHTF. Do you have chemical pesticides or organic means to control them? Have you ever actually tried to keep up with the tomato worms, aphids, potato bugs, squash bugs, corn moths, etc. in an organic garden? Do you know what types of plants repel what type of bugs? I planted marigolds to fight squash bugs and it worked most of the season but later in the summer the bugs attacked with a vengeance.

Do you have seed to plant? Don't think you'll just order some because we learned the hard way one year that seed companies have limited supplies on hand. If orders are large they run out very quickly. All of them! We went without corn one year but learned a valuable lesson. We were just glad it wasn't a real SHTF situation. If the SHTF seed may not be available AT ANY PRICE!

It needs to be replenished periodically. My wife and others on this board conducted a test of some long term stored seed someone purchased. It was vacuum sealed from a major preparedness outfit and the germination rate of every seed in the sealed can was nearly zero! (That experiment and results are on file here somewhere.)

Fifth, storage of the food. Can you store what you grow? Unless you live in southern Florida you'll have to have at least some food stored over the winter to get you to your first spring harvest. Do you have a root cellar, canner (and jars and lids), dry attic, and can you dehydrate foods without electricity?

All of this and more enters into that self-sufficient garden. If TSHTF how fast can a person learn all of this and how much equipment do they have on hand NOW? After TSHTF you aren't going to find the seeds, equipment, books or maybe even the people to get you started.

Sixth, can you grow enough to tide you over for a couple of years or more? Back before mass transportation was available people dealt with famines all of the time. In a SHTF world it will happen once more so you need to grow enough to store for a couple of years in case you have a crop failure.

I've got a whole section of my book that goes into a lot more details on this subject. The title is Creating the Low-Budget Homestead. Look it up on Amazon.


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## invision

mosquitomountainman said:


> This'll depend on several things.
> 
> First, are you an experienced gardener? My wife and I have been gardening all of our lives so we're aware of what to look for, what's best to plant, and how much work it is. We always advise beginning gardeners to start small and work their way up over the years. First time gardens take a lot of work just to keep the weeds at bay. But small gardens won't produce enough to feed you. If it's a survival or self-sufficient garden it has to be either big or (if you're an expert level gardener) extremely well organized worked. You can grow a lot of food in small spaces if you know what you're doing but it's going to take several years of gardening to get that good. It doesn't happen just by reading about it.
> 
> It isn't just about size and fertility either. Weeds and grass are usually a real pain in the u-know-where the first three years. A new patch of ground takes a lot of work and if you neglect it even one year you'll be starting all over again.


First sorry for the off topic hijack everyone

Thank you for the response
Live in GA - growing season is from mid-April to late September early October... Rain fall average in GA is heavy enough not to require irrigation on a daily basis, but i can see the need if drought were to occur. Prior to remarrying my x-wife and I had a small garden at my first house, 25 feet long by 9 feet wide.. first year all we did was use a tiller on the ground, worked in 4-25 lb bags of top soil, and planted it out in segments, surrounded with some different flowers - once a week we would work on weeds - we grew a variety of peppers, corn, tomatoes, squash, zucchini, and water mellow... We had so much (at time didn't have canning knowledge) that we gave away a large percentage... Since we had such luck that first year we didn't change a thing and for 3 years prior to divorce had better performance each year. I would say in the peppers and tomatoes we would have produced enough for a years consumption...

Where I am now, maybe 15 miles north of other house, ground is same soil type... Same water fall... Only this planned garden will be raised beds with a lot more top soil than what we used if the SHTF... As for deer - plenty of them around compared to other house - however the whole yard is protected by a 5 foot tall horse fence and the dogs (4) keep them far enough in the woods that they don't come near us.

As for seeds - yes I have seeds - I have bought from multiple suppliers because i actually was concerned about the chances of getting bad seeds... I have right at a million seeds from about 20 different suppliers. I also bought what would grow well in GA... No use having seeds for something that would be hard to grow, and I morally couldn't use them as barter items knowing the chance of getting them to grow easily... I have canning supplies - over 1300 jars, 5000 spare lids... And I have canned different things for the knowledge... Storage is in a basement where it stays around 65 in the winter, and no warmer than 68 in summer even with our extreme heat...

Will look for your book on amazon..,


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## Bobbb

What Invision is really talking about is the reestablishment of currency in a PAW. What objects can be used as a medium of trade. He thinks PM-based coinage will be of use to him in that mission.

The problems he's going to encounter that a person engaged in bartering won't have to worry about are how knowledgeable about PM coinage is the person he's trading with and how to assign value to the PM content in the coins absent information from a global PM market which hammers out prices for PM very efficiently.

With a barter trade of 50 lbs of wheat for 5 welding rods, each person in the trade finds value (or they wouldn't conclude the trade) and can then use the new product that they've received. 

When Invision proposes to trade some of his coins for another man's wheat he has in his mind an idea of how much silver he is willing to part with in order to get the trade and for the trade to be successful the man with the wheat has to accept that he is better off accepting Invision's offer of silver and parting with his wheat. What happens if the man is not knowledgeable about silver and has no use for the silver? He's likely going to engage in a risk hedging strategy - invision offers his 2 ounces of silver and he demands 2 pounds of silver with the difference giving him a buffer to compensate him for his ignorance about silver prices, his ignorance about which coins actually contain silver and which coins have no silver, and the amount of time that he's going to have to sit on those coins until he can trade them away for something he needs. In short, Invision and the wheat seller are not agreeing on the medium of exchange. 

No one needs silver directly, so for silver coins to be accepted both parties have to have faith in the medium of exchange and neither party should feel that knowledge about which type of coins have silver and which don't gives one of the traders an advantage over the other. With 18 gazillion coins in circulation not everyone is going to know which coins have silver and how much silver and so the field is rife for people to be swindled.

Stocking coins to hold value in inflationary times can work because the rudimentary elements of precious metal markets are in place - buyers and sellers abound and they all have access to a global market price for silver.

Stocking coins to use as a measure of value in a world where currency isn't trusted and where PM prices are whatever you want them to be and where there is a knowledge disparity between those who have stockpiles of PM coins and those who never before thought about coins and their PM content is, in my opinion, going to be a costly experiment for Invision and those who follow the same strategy. I'd rather take the $20,000 and invest it in a biodiesel plant or a bunch of welding rods or a big stockpile of lye or a container load of Pop Tarts or LifeSavers candy, items where the person I'm trading with has an immediate use for the product I'm offering or can, in short order, trade his way to someone else who needs to USE THAT PRODUCT, for the knowledge required to make a successful trade is close at hand - the person knows how much he needs that product and he knows what he's willing to give up to get it. You can't say that about silver coins.


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## mosquitomountainman

The perceived need an individual has is what determines value an a PAW. Those who have the basics covered will always bargain from a position of strength. Those whose physical and security needs are lacking will be at the mercy of those who've planned well. I if have bread and you have PM's, I'll be the person setting the price.

Like I said earlier. If you are sure that the economy is going to tank and money will be useless then keep only enough to get you by. Put everything else in real goods of lasting value. Once you have your own needs met in a way that's sustainable in the PAW then put your efforts into acquiring PM's.


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## cowboyhermit

Bobbb, I see your point but in the real world when bartering is the primary means of trade certain standards usually arise very quickly, by which to compare things, pms typically fill that role but other durable commodities can as well. 
Bartering on a small scale works fine in terms of pop tarts for eggs but there will always be people like me with surplus food, for instance, and yet have no use for pop tarts in fact personally none of the examples you listed would I use. 
Granted I could take those items and trade them with other people for things I actually need but that's the issue, why would I prefer items that are only of use to some, require proper storage in order to avoid being ruined, and are much more bulky. I would much prefer pms if I didn't actually need anything you had.


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## Bobbb

cowboyhermit said:


> Bobbb, I see your point but in the real world when bartering is the primary means of trade certain standards usually arise very quickly, by which to compare things, pms typically fill that role but other durable commodities can as well.
> Bartering on a small scale works fine in terms of pop tarts for eggs but there will always be people like me with surplus food, for instance, and yet have no use for pop tarts in fact personally none of the examples you listed would I use.
> Granted I could take those items and trade them with other people for things I actually need but that's the issue, why would I prefer items that are only of use to some, require proper storage in order to avoid being ruined, and are much more bulky. I would much prefer pms if I didn't actually need anything you had.


Don't take my comment as a criticism of the concept of currency. Currency makes modern life possible.

My concern is that PM embedded within some old coins and not in other coins and embedded in various fractional amounts in various coins is a world of confusion for traders.

A dollar bill is simple to understand. Same with a loonie. If you and I were trading and I offered to pay you 10 $1 bills for your item you could make your decision on the spot. Now what do you think you'd do if today I offered you 4 złoty and 50 groszy along with 5 hryvnia and 50 kopiyok? What are the odds that you know the value of Polish and Ukrainian currencies without having to go online and access a currency converter and then later having to visit a bank to exchange the Polish and Ukrainian bills and coins into American or Canadian bills and coins? Well, that's the type of scenario we'd be dealing with when people would be dealing with various old coins which were once in circulation and which had different amounts of silver minted into them. Every ordinary person would have to be an expert coin evaluator. They'll have to know the PM content of the various coins, they'll have to be able to spot counterfeits, they'll have to detect shaving.

Secondly, the markets are going to be highly localized and the arbitrage opportunities between various markets are going to be limited, meaning that price variance is going to be quite high.


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## cowboyhermit

A system of currency is great, but on a more basic level in a shtf scenario we are essentially talking about bartering for metals and using them as a means of portable wealth.
Coins are a convenient form for many reasons mentioned earlier. There are really only a few that anyone will encounter in quantity and the pm content can be printed on an index card. Any pawn shop or coin collector does this today and I think in most cases it will be less of an issue than the items you mentioned, how does someone know if the poptarts are safe? Is the lye pure? Welding rods exposed to moisture are useless.


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## invision

Bobbb said:


> Don't take my comment as a criticism of the concept of currency. Currency makes modern life possible.
> 
> My concern is that PM embedded within some old coins and not in other coins and embedded in various fractional amounts in various coins is a world of confusion for traders.
> 
> A dollar bill is simple to understand. Same with a loonie. If you and I were trading and I offered to pay you 10 $1 bills for your item you could make your decision on the spot. Now what do you think you'd do if today I offered you 4 złoty and 50 groszy along with 5 hryvnia and 50 kopiyok? What are the odds that you know the value of Polish and Ukrainian currencies without having to go online and access a currency converter and then later having to visit a bank to exchange the Polish and Ukrainian bills and coins into American or Canadian bills and coins? Well, that's the type of scenario we'd be dealing with when people would be dealing with various old coins which were once in circulation and which had different amounts of silver minted into them. Every ordinary person would have to be an expert coin evaluator. They'll have to know the PM content of the various coins, they'll have to be able to spot counterfeits, they'll have to detect shaving.
> 
> Secondly, the markets are going to be highly localized and the arbitrage opportunities between various markets are going to be limited, meaning that price variance is going to be quite high.


Bobbb - you make an excellent point on the foriegn coins.. However, what I am commenting on is American Pre-65 Dimes and Quarters. I personally wouldn't except other coinage due to the fact that your ABSOLUTELY correct -without the proper documentation in my possession to look up % of silver for each coin I would not except it... the same holds true for home melt silver bars - or even those stamped by companies I recognize... I do have a silver test kit, but if I melt down some .725 and seperately melt down some foriegn coins that I know to be 90%.. my test kit will scratch positive for both... so that is why I would stick to three types of coins - pre65, ASEs and Maples... I know they are 90% or 999%...

Also, for those in the prepping world, I think a majority (99.9%) know the value of pre-65 coins versus todays coins... for those investing in PMs who are not "prepper" - definitely know the % of silver in pre-65... Therefore - in a pSHTF world, I do have print outs about the weight and % for these coins - for anyone that isn't a prepper who is trying to survive in a pSHTF world and thinks their modern coinage is silver cause it is shiney like silver - sorry no trade...


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## cowboyhermit

To me the takeaway is there is NO universal item to stock up for barter, unlike currency today in a barter situation there is no universal means of exchange. I have heard many people say they would not consider accepting pms in a shtf situation while others like me would accept them under most circumstances.
Gold and silver in particular but other metals to a lessor extent, have the advantage of being compact forms of wealth that do not significantly degrade over time, even in terrible storage conditions.
The most well known and difficult to counterfeit will have the widest acceptance naturally, such as silver dimes. More valuable or obscure coins or bullion or jewelry etc will have a much lower acceptance in most cases because of the difficulty in authenticating. I would never turn down a Krugerrand though even if it was at a significant discount.


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## invision

Absolutely Cowboy - As for Jewerly that would be more tricky... for example - I wear a Jaeger LeCoultre - Master Control with a custom made bracelet from them...It has a current appraisal value of $12,000 - only someone who is a watch collector would be able to recognize it or it's value. Example, walking into most "Mall Jewelry" stores I have only had one person recognize it, and they were working at Mayors Jewelry - and they carry the brand... My wife wears a Rolex Lady's DateJust that is of slightly lower value at $10,000 the problem with this watch is Rolex is one of the most forged watch out there, and unless you have a solid understanding of how to recognize a fake - such as how a fake typically doesn't have a smooth action in the second hand, which a real Rolex does, or where all the serial numbers are located on them, then it will be hard to make a trade for it. 

The same will hold true for stones... The naked eye can't really tell the difference between say a VS-1 G and a SI-1 H The difference could be $1000's in difference... Same is true with using a Jeweler's loop - having the knowledge to look for and count and estimate the size of inclusions to differientiate between a VS-1 and an SI-1 would be out of my league, even though I know my color and clarity grades, I don't have the GSI training here to say It is a XX-1 or 2...


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## k0xxx

Around 35 years ago we made the decision that we would try to maintain 10% of our total worth in PM's. Over the years the actual percentage has fluctuated, but we generally maintained that level up until a few years ago when we started increasing the percentage. At our stage in life we don't have a lot of expenses, so storing some of our meager income in PM's isn't too hard.

Originally we didn't even think about any percentages, as far as the types and denominations, as long as it was gold or silver. Eventually we started paying more attention and settled to have a face value $500 in dimes, $500 in quarters, and $250 in halves as our baseline. We now have reached the point where we just buy in whatever form of gold or silver that we can get for the best price. 

Our method for coming up with our percentage formulas was pure WAG's (Wild Arse Guesses). Since we have no real idea of what the future holds, we just guessed and hoped for the best. Even though I still buy silver coinage and other minted silver, we mostly buy sterling items, plus gold and silver jewelry at yard sales, flea markets, etc. Most of these things we either sell for a profit for what they are, or we scrap them. All profit from these items gets put into minted gold coinage because of gold's compactness. This is just our strategy. Will it work out should things HTF? Who knows? I would suggest that one just decide on a plan based on their best information and stick to it. At least the kids may get a chance to sell it all, after we're gone, and buy hats.


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## Bobbb

invision said:


> Bobbb - you make an excellent point on the foriegn coins.. However, what I am commenting on is American Pre-65 Dimes and Quarters. I personally wouldn't except other coinage due to the fact that your ABSOLUTELY correct -without the proper documentation in my possession to look up % of silver for each coin I would not except it... the same holds true for home melt silver bars - or even those stamped by companies I recognize... I do have a silver test kit, but if I melt down some .725 and seperately melt down some foriegn coins that I know to be 90%.. my test kit will scratch positive for both... so that is why I would stick to three types of coins - pre65, ASEs and Maples... I know they are 90% or 999%...
> 
> Also, for those in the prepping world, I think a majority (99.9%) know the value of pre-65 coins versus todays coins... for those investing in PMs who are not "prepper" - definitely know the % of silver in pre-65... Therefore - in a pSHTF world, I do have print outs about the weight and % for these coins - for anyone that isn't a prepper who is trying to survive in a pSHTF world and thinks their modern coinage is silver cause it is shiney like silver - sorry no trade...


The foreign currency example highlights the divorce of value and knowledge. That currency certainly has value in today's world but unless you have knowledge of the market value and how to capture it for yourself, the value in that moment of trade is a huge question mark - how many dollars can you convert those currencies into? If you have no means of finding out, then you have to make the trade on a leap of faith.

Well the same applies in a PAW when you, a knowledgeable coin collector, face off against some farmer who has a surplus of potatoes he wouldn't mind trading for something. He doesn't know that pre-65 dimes had silver and post-65 dimes didn't. Even if he had heard something about old coins having silver he doesn't know how much silver each coin represents. Even if he knew how much silver was in each coin he doesn't know how to value the silver content because the London Metals Exchange stopped functioning years prior when the rest of the world went to hell in a handbasket.

MMM got it right with his insight that the price of something is what someone is willing to pay at that moment. This is the fundamental building block of a pricing system. So in a PAW what is the basis of value for the silver in your coins? Today the basis of value is American dollars - 1 oz of silver is worth X amount of dollars. In a PAW when the dollar has gone the way of the dodo, what is your silver coin going to be worth? One dime equals 8 beaver pelts? One nickel equals one bushel of carrots?

My broad point is that for currency to exist there must be a functioning society that supports a currency. This has been the case throughout history. That silver in the coins may come in useful when society is being reborn but the lack of a pricing mechanism in the midst of a society burning down to the ground is going to make the process of trade and the process of valuation near impossible, even for two coin experts trading between themselves.

The only reason that a farmer or trapper or machinist or chemist or doctor is going to take your silver in trade is so that he can trade it for something else. This means he needs to know that the value he gives to you is matched by the value of the silver he gets which in turn matches the value of the product he wants from someone else. If there are no such thing as dollars around, how will that value be measured? What is the value of a 1/16 ounce of silver? Secondly, what process is in place to equalize the value of silver in Atlanta against the value of silver in Jacksonville? Imagine that today you bought a contract for silver on the Chicago exchange and the silver was priced at $20 oz and then after you bought that silver you found that you could have bough silver on the London exchange for $16 oz. What happens to the value of your silver? With a currency system in place the spread between markets is neutralized by people engaging in arbitrage, they'll buy for $16 in London and sell for $20 in Chicago thus elevating the price in London and depressing the price in Chicago until the spread vanishes. How is that going to happen when in a PAW when there is no such thing as currency to which we can peg the value of silver?

The silver will be worth what the seller of the good is willing to part with on a gamble - he has to gamble that he made a good enough deal that he could unload the silver onto someone else in exchange for something he wants. If he's going to take that gamble, he'll likely build in a big buffer to offload the risk onto you, meaning that you're going to have to part with more silver in order to get that basket of potatoes. Another farmer down the street might cut a better deal with you because his risk threshold is different but you don't know that until you actually strike a deal with him. Absent a price system every transaction will value that silver uniquely.


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## Bobbb

invision said:


> Absolutely Cowboy - As for Jewerly that would be more tricky... for example - I wear a Jaeger LeCoultre - Master Control with a custom made bracelet from them...It has a current appraisal value of $12,000 - only someone who is a watch collector would be able to recognize it or it's value. Example, walking into most "Mall Jewelry" stores I have only had one person recognize it, and they were working at Mayors Jewelry - and they carry the brand... My wife wears a Rolex Lady's DateJust that is of slightly lower value at $10,000 the problem with this watch is Rolex is one of the most forged watch out there, and unless you have a solid understanding of how to recognize a fake - such as how a fake typically doesn't have a smooth action in the second hand, which a real Rolex does, or where all the serial numbers are located on them, then it will be hard to make a trade for it.
> 
> The same will hold true for stones... The naked eye can't really tell the difference between say a VS-1 G and a SI-1 H The difference could be $1000's in difference... Same is true with using a Jeweler's loop - having the knowledge to look for and count and estimate the size of inclusions to differientiate between a VS-1 and an SI-1 would be out of my league, even though I know my color and clarity grades, I don't have the GSI training here to say It is a XX-1 or 2...


Very well stated. So why aren't you applying this reasoning to precious metal coins?


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## Wellrounded

It all depends on where we see value. Take your example invision, I can buy a watch for $10.00 I have no need for anything else, now or after TSHTF. Here you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that would have an interest in bartering it, maybe where you are you'd find someone willing to realise it's value. Same goes with PMs, I have no use for them and I wouldn't take any unless the community I'm in recognised their value. There also have to be enough of them to become a currency, if there are a few thousands (or even tens of thousands) of coins floating around a community that's not going to be enough. 
If I have a few spare dollars I invest in items I can value add to, even if the S doesn't HTF I can still make use of them and possibly turn a small profit.


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## cowboyhermit

Bobbb said:


> My broad point is that for currency to exist there must be a functioning society that supports a currency. This has been the case throughout history.


Bobbb, you keep coming back to the idea of currency and I think you are missing the difference between that and what people are doing with "precious" metals.
A 1oz gold maple leaf has a "face value" of $50, it is legal tender under the currency act for that amount. 
The closest things that most are proposing is to use metals as a "medium of exchange" and not a universal one by any means.

All of the problems you ascribed to precious metals and coins, such as determining the quality and authenticity of the coins, price varying by location and time, lack of a widespread pricing mechanism, are in fact a result of the barter system in general. Other commodities that could be bartered are subject to these exact same problems, plus they tend to be much less durable.


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## Bobbb

cowboyhermit said:


> A 1oz gold maple leaf has a "face value" of $50, it is legal tender under the currency act for that amount.


Face value is irrelevant. That's not what I'm talking about with respect to value and price.

Maybe I can explain it via a little game of hypothetical. Tell me how much a 40 lb box of carrots is worth without using the concept of money. Now tell me how much a Gold Maple Leaf 1 oz coin is worth, again without invoking dollars of any kind nor any other currency. Now tell me how much a pre-65 silver dollar is worth without anchoring that worth in dollars.



> The closest things that most are proposing is to use metals as a "medium of exchange" and not a universal one by any means.


I well understand the plan, it's not really a complicated plan. My question to you all is how is that medium of exchange valued? Today we all know what 1 oz of silver costs us and also what we can buy with 1 oz of silver. The cost of the silver and what we can buy with it are exactly the same (ignoring transaction costs.) We can find the price of silver by looking at the silver market for an up to the second quote. What we would spend on the silver we can also spend in the grocery store and buy carrots until we've spent the same amount of money. Now, how many carrots can you buy with that silver if there is no global market setting it's price? Now, how much "carrot variance" will you experience if you go from one grocery store to another grocery store to another grocery store and haggle with each cashier who individually have to decide how many carrots they're willing to trade you for that one oz. silver coin?

Let me try this approach. It's fine to say that carrots are $2 per lb, potatoes are $1 per pound and that one oz. of silver costs $20. Now if you want to buy 10 lbs of carrots or 20 lbs of potatoes you can fork over a $20 bill or a one oz silver coin for both are a medium of exchange. For the medium of exchange to work there has to be a price system of some sorts in operation. Now how do you use silver as a medium of exchange if there are no prices and instead value is determined by what one gets in trade? If you offer someone 1 oz of silver in exchange for 10 lbs of carrots what is the value of the silver? Its value is 10 lbs of carrots.

Here's another facet to this issue. Communist economic systems broke down, and always will, because central planners don't have enough information at their disposal to set prices. Prices set by a market economy involve billions of transactions daily on a wide assortment of good and the information involved in setting prices is very transparent and the interlinkages between goods and services are immense. Drop a pebble in one small part of the economy and the ripples will be felt everywhere else. In a PAW the economy will be, essentially non-existent, hence the price system will be in tatters. There will be no relationship between the value of a pound of carrots, a pound of potatoes, a pound of butter, and when commerce is so infrequent the corrective mechanisms of individual transactions will be very weak and ineffective. This makes it difficult to use a "medium of exchange" in the absence of a price system for no one can agree on how to value one good in relation to the matrix of other goods. All that's left is how to value one good in relation to another good at the moment of exchange between two traders. One guy wants carrots and the other wants potatoes and so they trade amounts where both feel that they've made a fair trade. The amount traded between these two fellows has very little effect on the same trade being conducted on the other side of the county by two other traders. There is no mechanism for that price information to circulate and influence how people value goods. Once that price information has a mechanism by which it can travel far and wide, then it can influence how people value goods and once that happens then a "medium of exchange can be introduced." Whatever that medium of exchange, silver would have value in relation to it. Let's call that medium of exchange, oh I don't know, how about "Dollars." Now we can compare how many dollars it takes to buy 1 oz of silver against how many dollars it takes to buy 10 lbs of carrots. The wider this commercial environment spreads and the more participants who play, the lower the variance seen in the prices and the process of rebuilding society is now on a more secure path.



> All of the problems you ascribed to precious metals and coins, such as determining the quality and authenticity of the coins, price varying by location and time, lack of a widespread pricing mechanism, are in fact a result of the barter system in general.


Yes they are, but with a barter system you don't need a price system, the value of the goods is determined by the two traders. How badly does the carrot farmer want some potatoes and how badly does that potato farmer want those carrots? They'll haggle until they either reach a mutually satisfactory deal or they'll not reach a meeting of the minds. Their negotiation and deal doesn't depend on the value of butter, the value of silver, the value of beer or anything else. There are no external metrics needed, just the value that each person assigns to a good that he wishes to consume and a good that he is willing to part with.

Now, absent a price system the carrot farmer, who really wants potatoes, might trade you some carrots for your 1 oz silver coin but he's still without potatoes and you've got his carrots. Now he has to go and find a potato farmer who will be willing to accept this silver coin in exchange for potatoes. Also, he now has to find a potato farmer who will give him the same amount of potatoes that he would have traded his carrots for otherwise, if he gets fewer potatoes than he would in a direct trade, he's made himself poorer. With this amount of uncertainty involved in using silver as a medium of exchange the carrot farmer is going to try to shift as much of that risk onto you by selling you fewer carrots for that silver coin. How much of that risk are you willing to pay for? You're buying carrots plus paying a premium in order to bypass barter and instead use silver. You see, absent a price system in this rudimentary economy, it's very difficult to use a medium of exchange.

First comes love, then comes marriage, then comes a baby in a baby carriage. First comes production, then comes trade, then comes a price system, then comes a medium of exchange.


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## invision

Wellrounded said:


> It all depends on where we see value. Take your example invision, I can buy a watch for $10.00 I have no need for anything else, now or after TSHTF. Here you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that would have an interest in bartering it, maybe where you are you'd find someone willing to realise it's value. Same goes with PMs, I have no use for them and I wouldn't take any unless the community I'm in recognised their value. There also have to be enough of them to become a currency, if there are a few thousands (or even tens of thousands) of coins floating around a community that's not going to be enough.
> If I have a few spare dollars I invest in items I can value add to, even if the S doesn't HTF I can still make use of them and possibly turn a small profit.


Let me ask this... Staying with my original statement - your in a PAW, you are in a community of "survivors" - it's been long enough for the dust to settle... Do you see the world simply going back in time to the 1800's or farther back, where you are constantly trading for something you need with something you have a spare of? Or don't you see an immediate attempt to rebuild a commerce structure using some form of medium to set as a currency - so that items can be set at a material cost factor?


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## Wellrounded

I agree with Bobbb on this one. If it's used as a medium of exchange it's currency of a sort. 
I can look at welding rods and see if they are/have been wet but I'm going to struggle with the value and quality of silver and I'm going to have to know how it will trade to the next person. There needs to be communication within the community and an agreed value at that point in time. If I trade my pig for your two pieces of silver I need to know before hand that I can trade them for a sturdy pair of boots at the boot makers, until that point the silver has no value to me. When the community agrees that it has a certain value and can be used as exchange it becomes a currency, even if the 'community' is only you and me.


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## Wellrounded

invision said:


> Let me ask this... Staying with my original statement - your in a PAW, you are in a community of "survivors" - it's been long enough for the dust to settle... Do you see the world simply going back in time to the 1800's or farther back, where you are constantly trading for something you need with something you have a spare of? Or don't you see an immediate attempt to rebuild a commerce structure using some form of medium to set as a currency - so that items can be set at a material cost factor?


Yes I do see a need for a form of currency, but anything can be used. If the community decides to use silver then that's what they will use. I'll wait until the dust settles then exchange my pigs for some of what ever it is at current market rates. I'm not going to gamble that it will be silver and that the exchange rate will be anything like the value I originally paid for it. I'll stick to what I know people will need or want and go from there.


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## cowboyhermit

Bobbb, I will try to answer some of your questions, you asked;
"My question to you all is how is that medium of exchange valued?" 
Through a free price system for the most part. On a fundamental level as soon as trade is established so is a price system.

"What we would spend on the silver we can also spend in the grocery store and buy carrots until we've spent the same amount of money. Now, how many carrots can you buy with that silver if there is no global market setting it's price?"
We would do what people have always done throughout history, in the absence of a "global market" and even within it, local markets set their own price.

"Now how do you use silver as a medium of exchange if there are no prices and instead value is determined by what one gets in trade?"
You are missing the fundamental reality of trade, of course there is a price, when a trade takes place a price is agreed upon.

You wrote;
"Here's another facet to this issue. Communist economic systems broke down, and always will, because central planners don't have enough information at their disposal to set prices. Prices set by a market economy involve billions of transactions daily on a wide assortment of good and the information involved in setting prices is very transparent and the interlinkages between goods and services are immense. Drop a pebble in one small part of the economy and the ripples will be felt everywhere else. In a PAW the economy will be, essentially non-existent, hence the price system will be in tatters. There will be no relationship between the value of a pound of carrots, a pound of potatoes, a pound of butter, and when commerce is so infrequent the corrective mechanisms of individual transactions will be very weak and ineffective."
First, the communist system and other fixed price systems are fundamentally flawed, this has nothing to do with voluntary transactions between individuals. 
The second part of what you wrote indicates a misunderstanding of how trade works and pricing systems form at the most primitive level, look to prisons, pow camps, historical societies and it becomes obvious that a pricing system establishes itself.

All your other statements seem based on this same principle that without a pricing system it is impossible to have a means of exchange, that is essentially true but it is a moot point because as soon as trade begins, so does a pricing system. Saying that it will not be a global one, or a refined one is fine, but it exists and is in constant flux.


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## invision

Bobbb said:


> Very well stated. So why aren't you applying this reasoning to precious metal coins?


My whole statement for the thread is based on: it is a PAW - the dust has settled... Now it is time to start rebuilding - getting electricity going, water flowing, trade/commerce starts going in the community you live in or near... I am sure that you would agree that as a human race we are creatures of commerce - we have always created some form of monetary unit used to exchange with someone for either a service or a product. IMO - I see the use of PMs to be a driving factor to tie directly to what ever the monetary unit that is determined by the community to be used. PMs up until the 1971 backed the USD... IMO - we will shift back to using some form of "currency" or monetary unit, whether it is a new form of US dollar or a single sheet of TP, it doesn't matter, but I see it being tied to something of value or backed by something of common value... Aka gold/silver... Just like every time in history, a currency has been tied originally to PMs.

Think how difficult it would be to just stay on the barter system. Let's say you need additional security, you come to my group for assistance. We are all proficient in both short range and long range marksmanship. You are offering 10 lbs of potatoes a week and room and board while 2 out of 8 of us are on site during a 24 hr period. We come back with, room and board - 10 lbs of potatoes, 1 lb of carrots and a dozen eggs, and use of two horses to send guys back and forth... Your statement of there being no open market for pricing for PMs (not being able to check the exchange rates on spot prices) also holds true here in the barter world, because our needs are as stated and your needs are stated. The value of each is vitally important in the eyes of the ones in need...

Compare that to current world... You have a computer network, you are having issues, you have used Geek Squad in the past for minor things, but this is major - your Database transaction logs are completely corrupt and you don't have a good backup - you call my company - we analyze the issue and provide you a work of scope - in your mind your use to working with Geek Squad and their pricing structure of $75/hr - you see our rate at $135. We don't work for less on any project period, that has been our price per man hour during normal business hours since 2005 and in some cases I have jacked it up higher depending upon the level of complication to as high as $225 per hour during normal business hours- so that we can source the required expertise if needed and still make a dime. Until you look elsewhere and find that we are on par with other firms that are MS Gold partners charge (this would be the same as checking spot prices) you either have to bite the bullet and pay our rate or continue to deal with Geek Squad to try to fix the issue. It comes down to what is your ROI basically - what is the impact of not having that DB to your bottom line? Cutting us a check for 20 hours or being crippled for 4-6 weeks or longer paying GS....

Also, going back to you being a vendor at a barter fair, you wouldn't be there in a booth peddling your wares if you didn't have a need - why waste your time when you have to tend a garden, feed the animals, etc etc... I wouldn't be there wanting what you have unless I have a need. There isn't a pricing index or a competitive pricing model for either parties supplies. It comes down to need... To save time and energy, wouldn't you see us moving quickly toward an a process where you could set a price based on a monetary unit, one in which you could the exchange or trade for what you in fact really need?

See my point?


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## Wellrounded

invision,

"Also, going back to you being a vendor at a barter fair, you wouldn't be there in a booth peddling your wares if you didn't have a need - why waste your time when you have to tend a garden, feed the animals, etc etc... I wouldn't be there wanting what you have unless I have a need. There isn't a pricing index or a competitive pricing model for either parties supplies. It comes down to need... To save time and energy, wouldn't you see us moving quickly toward an a process where you could set a price based on a monetary unit, one in which you could the exchange or trade for what you in fact really need?"

I absolutely agree but I still can't see PM's filling this role. Certainly not here. Just how many units do you need to cater to this trade. Even if we agreed on a value there wouldn't be enough PM's floating around to make it available enough. 
I'm going to want an awful lot of coin for my milk cow. A working currency has to have an agreed value and be available.


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## Bobbb

cowboyhermit said:


> You are missing the fundamental reality of trade, of course there is a price, when a trade takes place a price is agreed upon.


I trade you 40 lbs of carrots for 20 lbs of potatoes. What is the price of a pound of butter?

You're being loosey-goosey with terminology. A price for a good is not the same as a price system. The price paid for 1 lb of potatoes in the above example is 2 lbs of carrots. That doesn't tell us what the price of 1 lb of butter amounts to.



> First, the communist system and other fixed price systems are fundamentally flawed, *this has nothing to do with voluntary transactions between individuals.*


Says you. I say that it has a lot to do with this issue and rather than just asserting a conclusion I showed my reasoning.



> The second part of what you wrote indicates a misunderstanding of how trade works and pricing systems form at the most primitive level, look to prisons, pow camps, historical societies and it becomes obvious that a pricing system establishes itself.


I'm pretty comfortable with my understanding of price theory, but thanks for being concerned about my level of ignorance. A prison camp is a closed economic system with very few tradeable goods and the medium of exchange, say cigarettes, are consumables themselves so they differ from dollar bills (you can't smoke or eat a dollar bill and you can't smoke, eat or drink a silver coin) so I'm not sure what grand principle you're deriving. As for historical societies, yup rudimentary price systems developed and those societies were not known for price stability nor for trading in a wide range of goods. The important consideration here is that societies existed. Is your reasoning contingent on a functioning society existing after some calamity strikes? I thought we were talking about a PAW where society didn't really exist and there were simply lone islands of survivors and small communities eking out a living. That's the scenario I'm working with, that seems to be what Wellrounded understood as well, and that seems to be what Invision is talking about. If a society survives calamity then that society is the vehicle through which communications about goods bought and sold can traverse and the information needed to determine and shape the value of goods can be had by all. Yeah, open communication is certainly going to support the emergence of a price system, you know, unlike what we see in communist societies with their scarcity of open communication in a marketplace.



> that is essentially true but it a moot point because as soon as trade begins, so does a pricing system.


I'll trade you these carrots for your potatoes. Now tell me how much a pound of butter is worth? We've traded, so where is the pricing system which tells us what butter is worth?



> Saying that it will not be a global one, or a refined one is fine, but it exists and is in constant flux.


I think that you're seriously misunderstanding what I'm writing. The only place I mentioned a global system was in reference to price of silver today. Remember, I asked you to tell me how much silver was worth without basing that worth on dollars and you never did answer that question. Would you like to try now?

I never wrote, nor did I imply, that a global price system was necessary and to be clear it's not necessary for a medium of exchange to exist. All that a global price system does is reduce variance in the price of goods, meaning you're not going to see a $5 variance in price for an ounce of silver between various exchanges around the world.


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## invision

Wellrounded said:


> Yes I do see a need for a form of currency, but anything can be used. If the community decides to use silver then that's what they will use. I'll wait until the dust settles then exchange my pigs for some of what ever it is at current market rates. I'm not going to gamble that it will be silver and that the exchange rate will be anything like the value I originally paid for it. I'll stick to what I know people will need or want and go from there.


Ok wait a minute - so you see a need for some form of currency... And to get your hands on initial currency you will barter with your pigs - but what if the community doesn't need your pigs - yeah yeah I know, everyone needs hot dogs and BBQ in their lives... Or the item you have chosen will be a highly competitive and flooded market.... Why would you put yourself in jeopardy of losing standard of living? Also, why would you not want to be in a position where you have a great opportunity of a higher standard of living?

See I guess my original question is based on that last question... Today - I have a certain amount of buying power, which in turn provides be with a standard of living. You do as well, everyone on here does in fact. Those very few that are completely self sufficient are extremely rare... So why wouldn't anyone want to maintain their level or improve their standard of living? Even in a PAW - I know there will be no comparison to what I have now, however, why wouldn't I strive to achieve what would be an equal comparison.

Let me try to explain this a little better - sorry its late and I am tired - right now - current world - I would be considered a 1% by the eyes of the US government - whether I agree or not, which I don't btw... If I traveled back in time to mid-evil times my status in todays world would be a equal or similar to that of a Lord - aka a landowner, not royalty or a duke, just a medium sized landowner... If instead I went back to the time in which the US was created - I would be equal to say a Paul Revere - a successful business and land owner... (Sorry couldn't think of any business owners except him for some reason and it fits since he was a gold-silver metal smith) Not a Jefferson, or Washington or Franklin - in my mind the later as well as a member of mid-evil time Royalty or a Duke would be your Buffets, Gates, Rockefellers of the .01% of today's 1%...

Now why wouldn't I include in my preps a means to remain (in relevance of comparison) at or achieve higher status? I would think a majority if not all would agree that in. Paw - eventually some form of currency will be used, and as with hedging for inflation with PMs, it would be a hedge bet that PMs will be used to back that new currency...


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## Bobbb

invision said:


> Think how difficult it would be to just stay on the barter system.


Of course it's difficult. It's suboptimal. It's limiting.

What I'm trying to say is that your silver coins need a precondition before they can become valuable to you. In a world of barter your silver coins don't have much use except to speculators and they'll drive a hard bargain.

Further, your assortment of coins is loaded up with ambiguity. Every person engaging with those coins needs to be expert enough is determining their silver value and that's going to be a hard condition to meet when other alternatives will not have such a steep learning curve for the average person who just wants to trade his carrots for some potatoes and is happy to do it via barter or via a transparent means of exchange that is widely honored.



> Your statement of there being no open market for pricing for PMs (not being able to check the exchange rates on spot prices) also holds true here in the barter world, because our needs are as stated and your needs are stated. The value of each is vitally important in the eyes of the ones in need...


The difference is that in barter the two parties are trading good which are consumable. Your PM coins are not consumables - they're the equivalent of fiat dollars or pebbles or pine cones or whatever is used a a means of exchange. This means that the pricing/value of the goods being traded via barter is transparent to the participants. The value of a PM coin is not so transparent. For that transparency to arise you need a society to emerge and for commerce to be regularized and for there to be open communication about the value of the trading taking place. What needs to happen is for Wellrounded's concerns about being able to buy boots with that coinage he took in exchange from you to be addressed.

Current money is valued because people believe in it. Well, that same trust has to exist for silver coins. Absent such trust a silver coin is just a bauble, a pretty thing and it's worthless. If the bootmaker won't accept the silver coins that Wellrounded offers him, then Wellrounded is out two pigs, doesn't have boots and is stuck with useless silver coins. If the bootmaker will accept the coins but not at the value that Wellrounded wants to assign the coins in the trade, then Wellrounded is still out two pigs, has no boots and is stuck with overvalued coins that no one he trades with will accept.


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## cowboyhermit

Bobbb you are kind of missing the boat here, you ask;
"I trade you 40 lbs of carrots for 20 lbs of potatoes. What is the price of a pound of butter?"
"I'll trade you these carrots for your potatoes. Now tell me how much a pound of butter is worth? We've traded, so where is the pricing system which tells us what butter is worth?"
The price for butter would be set the same way as the original trade, depending on supply and demand, etc. A pricing system cannot set a price for something that has never been traded, this should be obvious. 

Wellrounded made a good point, precious metals need not be the method of exchange, nor must there be only one. System with multiple metals and other "currencies" have always existed. Commodity money in the form of grain, metals, shells, etc go back farther than what we talk about as a market economy, they were used essentially as a form of barter.

ETA; Bobbb, you said;
"The difference is that in barter the two parties are trading good which are consumable"  That is not true, barter is in no way predicated on the consumability of what is being exchanged. One can barter for land or gold.


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## invision

Bobbb said:


> A prison camp is a closed economic system with very few tradeable goods and the medium of exchange, say cigarettes, are consumables themselves so they differ from dollar bills (you can't smoke or eat a dollar bill and you can't smoke, eat or drink a silver coin) so I'm not sure what grand principle you're deriving. As for historical societies, yup rudimentary price systems developed and those societies were not known for price stability nor for trading in a wide range of goods. The important consideration here is that societies existed. Is your reasoning contingent on a functioning society existing after some calamity strikes? I thought we were talking about a PAW where society didn't really exist and there were simply lone islands of survivors and small communities eking out a living. That's the scenario I'm working with, that seems to be what Wellrounded understood as well, and that seems to be what Invision is talking about. If a society survives calamity then that society is the vehicle through which communications about goods bought and sold can traverse and the information needed to determine and shape the value of goods can be had by all. Yeah, open communication is certainly going to support the emergence of a price system, you know, unlike what we see in communist societies with their scarcity of open communication in a marketplace.


Bobbb - IMO - a small community or a spattering of survivors in a 10 mile radius - would in fact become a new micro-society. That community would instill it's own norms, set its own laws, constitution and should work towards creating a system of commerce. The goal of that micro-society (IMO) be to work together to bring back electricity, get water flowing, provide security to each other as a group. I believe that it would be second nature to gradually formulate a means of currency, wouldn't you agree?

See I live in what is considered fringe rural - but the city in general of 50,000 people in 38 sq miles (roughly 1300 people per sq mile) Now say 90% don't survive - or leave for other areas, etc... That leaves 5,000 people in roughly 38 sq miles or 131 people per square mile.. Without modern transportation means that is a big area of land. Example riding a horse at a 5mph pace would take 7 hours to go from one side on my city limits to the other.... So IMO this area would become its own micro-society... Now, I live in a more rural area where in a square mile there are only 50 people living in my subdivision... The closest next subdivision is a mile+ away and all four of them are of similar size... In between the subdivisions are horse farms, 40+ acres of wooded area with a single household, etc...


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## Bobbb

cowboyhermit said:


> Bobbb *you are kind of missing the boat here*, you ask;
> 
> "I'll trade you these carrots for your potatoes. Now tell me how much a pound of butter is worth? We've traded, *so where is the pricing system* which tells us what butter is worth?"​
> The price for butter would be set the same way as the original trade, depending on supply and demand, etc.


I'm missing the boat? Look at my question to you again. Look at the bolded part. You told me:

as soon as trade begins, so does a pricing system.​
So, taking you at your word *I asked you where was the system* which could tell us the price of butter once we satisfied your condition of trade existing and trade certainly happened when we traded carrots for potatoes.

Well, where is the pricing system? That's the question, not what is the price of butter.

Your point is incoherent. You need more than just an instance of trade taking place for a pricing system to emerge. A system implies interlinkage between various components. In a simple 3 factor model - carrots, potatoes, and butter, we need to know the following:

X Carrots = Y Potatoes
X Carrots = Y Butter
X Potatoes = Y Butter

There is your price system. The value of each of the 3 factors are linked. Simply trading potatoes and carrots doesn't give us any information on butter and so there is no price system arising simply from the presence of a trade.

With this information one farmer can now sell his carrots in exchange for potatoes and then turn around and sell his potatoes for butter and be no worse off than if he sold his carrots in exchange for the butter. Whether this is done through barter or through a medium of exchange doesn't matter for the pricing of the goods is established and transparent.


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## Bobbb

invision said:


> Bobbb - IMO - a small community or a spattering of survivors in a 10 mile radius - would in fact become a new micro-society. That community would instill it's own norms, set its own laws, constitution and should work towards creating a system of commerce. The goal of that micro-society (IMO) be to work together to bring back electricity, get water flowing, provide security to each other as a group.


I agree. These are the seeds which will grow and then merge with other micro societies.


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## Wellrounded

invision said:


> Ok wait a minute - so you see a need for some form of currency... And to get your hands on initial currency you will barter with your pigs - but what if the community doesn't need your pigs - yeah yeah I know, everyone needs hot dogs and BBQ in their lives... Or the item you have chosen will be a highly competitive and flooded market.... Why would you put yourself in jeopardy of losing standard of living? Also, why would you not want to be in a position where you have a great opportunity of a higher standard of living?
> 
> See I guess my original question is based on that last question... Today - I have a certain amount of buying power, which in turn provides be with a standard of living. You do as well, everyone on here does in fact. Those very few that are completely self sufficient are extremely rare... So why wouldn't anyone want to maintain their level or improve their standard of living? Even in a PAW - I know there will be no comparison to what I have now, however, why wouldn't I strive to achieve what would be an equal comparison.
> 
> Let me try to explain this a little better - sorry its late and I am tired - right now - current world - I would be considered a 1% by the eyes of the US government - whether I agree or not, which I don't btw... If I traveled back in time to mid-evil times my status in todays world would be a equal or similar to that of a Lord - aka a landowner, not royalty or a duke, just a medium sized landowner... If instead I went back to the time in which the US was created - I would be equal to say a Paul Revere - a successful business and land owner... (Sorry couldn't think of any business owners except him for some reason and it fits since he was a gold-silver metal smith) Not a Jefferson, or Washington or Franklin - in my mind the later as well as a member of mid-evil time Royalty or a Duke would be your Buffets, Gates, Rockefellers of the .01% of today's 1%...
> 
> Now why wouldn't I include in my preps a means to remain (in relevance of comparison) at or achieve higher status? I would think a majority if not all would agree that in. Paw - eventually some form of currency will be used, and as with hedging for inflation with PMs, it would be a hedge bet that PMs will be used to back that new currency...


Again I agree with everything your saying, I have no problem with that. BUT, I truly believe that in the post SHTF world I will be the wealthy one not you. I know exactly how many people own pigs within two days walk of here and I know how to feed them without depending on modern crops. 
I live this life already, you don't. I'll maintain my standard of living because it's already about as low as you can go and still follow current laws and regulations. 
I don't just have pigs, we make everything we NEED to live a pretty comfortable life here and the skills to go with it. I know I can teach others to do the same (if the community is safe enough allow it), I'll build my wealth on that.
I know what will be available in the community I live in and I have a pretty good idea what they'll be short on. I'm not going to be 100% right of course but I'll get some of it right. 
I don't think we feel differently about the necessity of community, and the ability to trade over distance and time but on what wealth will be after the SHTF.

I'm not going to argue with you about your time travel analogy but seriously :rofl:


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## cowboyhermit

Bobbb said:


> I'm missing the boat? Look at my question to you again. Look at the bolded part. You told me:
> 
> as soon as trade begins, so does a pricing system.​
> So, taking you at your word *I asked you where was the system* which could tell us the price of butter once we satisfied your condition of trade existing and trade certainly happened when we traded carrots for potatoes.
> 
> Well, where is the pricing system? That's the question, not what is the price of butter.
> 
> Your point is incoherent. You need more than just an instance of trade taking place for a pricing system to emerge. A system implies interlinkage between various components. In a simple 3 factor model - carrots, potatoes, and butter, we need to know the following:
> 
> X Carrots = Y Potatoes
> X Carrots = Y Butter
> X Potatoes = Y Butter
> 
> There is your price system. The value of each of the 3 factors are linked. Simply trading potatoes and carrots doesn't give us any information on butter and so there is no price system arising simply from the presence of a trade.


:scratch
The pricing system exists, obviously, it just does not include butter because it *hasn't been traded yet*
It is not necessary for everything to have an established price in order to have a pricing system, which is good because it would be impossible. 
Things are put on the market that have no precedence, they are sold and a rudimentary price is established, this is 101 stuff Bobbb.


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## invision

Bobbb said:


> I'm missing the boat? Look at my question to you again. Look at the bolded part. You told me:
> 
> as soon as trade begins, so does a pricing system.
> 
> So, taking you at your word I asked you where was the system which could tell us the price of butter once we satisfied your condition of trade existing and trade certainly happened when we traded carrots for potatoes.
> 
> Well, where is the pricing system? That's the question, not what is the price of butter.
> 
> Your point is incoherent. You need more than just an instance of trade taking place for a pricing system to emerge. A system implies interlinkage between various components. In a simple 3 factor model - carrots, potatoes, and butter, we need to know the following:
> 
> X Carrots = Y Potatoes
> X Carrots = Y Butter
> X Potatoes = Y Butter
> 
> There is your price system. The value of each of the 3 factors are linked. Simply trading potatoes and carrots doesn't give us any information on butter and so there is no price system arising simply from the presence of a trade.


Bobbb - I think I understand what Cowboy was saying...

For the trade of carrots to potatoes to occur then a pricing system has been established... It would grow, evolve, expand with each new product traded.. Just like in today's society - look at cell phones for an example - prior to 2004-5 when smartphones hit the market a standard flip phone was $100-200 with a 2 yr contract... In 2004-5 (I think) when the first smart phones were released. I know I got my first windows phone in 2005, anyway, when they were first released the manufacture set a price out of thin air - yes cost to build, r&d and everything else helped to determine that price... needless to say the price was $500 with a 2 year contract. So until that smartphone hit the market there was not a pricing system for it - although there was one for cell phones... See? So, until you or someone shows up to the barter fair with a bucket of fresh churned butter, there hasn't been a pricing system for it... And like anything the initial cost will be high, until more butter is brought to market by different vendors - just like how smartphone costs have nose dive in costs since 2004-5....


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## Wellrounded

At the end of the day when/if the world descends into something like subsistence living, your only going to be worth what you have on hand of value to yourself and others, the hours you work and the knowledge you have.


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## invision

Wellrounded said:


> .
> 
> I'm not going to argue with you about your time travel analogy but seriously :rofl:


Hahaha... I said it was late! I see your points and understand them,,, I think as we have moved the thread forward, we are seeing your potential "micro-society", and we are seeing mine... example in mine - I don't think there is a single pig in 50 miles of my house... But there are plenty of horse, cows, chickens, rabbit farms in the area... Each "micro-society" will determine their own course of action and how to best move forward.

Like I said I was reading to fiction SHTF novels - one the community created their own currency back by PMs and a community bank... The other they just started to use old dollars - both IMO - would have flaws... Which led me to create this thread...


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## invision

Wellrounded said:


> At the end of the day when/if the world descends into something like subsistence living, your only going to be worth what you have on hand of value to yourself and others, the hours you work and the knowledge you have.


Couldn't agree more with you on that one... In my area, I know only 8-10 preppers - I have run into a few others who are trying to be as self sufficient as possible now - where I will get chickens and other animals leading up to SHTF..


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## Bobbb

cowboyhermit said:


> :scratch
> The pricing system exists, obviously, it just does not include butter because it *hasn't been traded yet*


If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it fall, did it make a sound?

Butter has been traded on the other side of the county, you just aren't privy to the details. Without a means of pricing information moving through the economy you don't have a price system, you simply have localized instances of trade. The supply and demand curves are predicated upon scarcity information and they're predicated upon price information, so what we're dealing with here are precursors to classic economic theory.



> It is not necessary for everything to have an established price in order to have a pricing system


I didn't say that. I took issue with your claim that all that was required for a pricing system to be established was for an instance of trade to take place. A system is a more complex grouping of information than what is found in an instance of trade between two individuals each operating on their own utility curves. Let me flesh that out a bit more. How much is a glass of water worth? You might trade me one carrot for a glass of water. Fine, we strike a bargain. Does that trade information define a system of price information for water? What happens when Wellrounded crawls out of the Australian Outback dying of thirst but carrying lots of valuable stuff in his backpack? He's probably very willing to pay more than one carrot for a glass of water. A system emerges from all of these transactions taking place. Information becomes the bedrock upon which supply and demand curves are derived and from which market forces that affect consumers and suppliers emerge.

If you don't know what the scarcity of carrots is in the section of the country that you're traveling through and no one is really trading carrots so both you and the carrot farmer are oblivious to the supply and demand curves, then it's up to you to find a way to value those carrots and the other tradeable goods in order to strike a bargain. What you two decide doesn't set the price in a system. If that information isn't conveyed to other traders then it's like a tree falling in the forest and making no sound - if they don't know the details of your trade then your details can't influence their trading and the values that they assign to the same goods.



> Things are put on the market that have no precedence, they are sold and a rudimentary price is established.


Innovative products put on the market are priced in relation to substitute goods. If I develop a new form of carrot that the world has never seen before, it's highly unlikely that I'm going to try to sell it for the price of a car. Rather I'll likely price it in comparison to other carrots or if I'm feeling adventurous I'd price it in relation to some known novelty food. The pricing decision is not a random throw of the darts, a stab in the dark, a roll of the dice - it has some relationship to the utility of the product and of comparable products.


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## Bobbb

That's it for me. I'm going to be a half awake zombie tomorrow paying the price for staying up so late. Good night everyone.


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## cowboyhermit

Bobbb
Your examples of imperfect information and localized scarcity are what I referenced earlier however these things do not indicate that a price system doesn't exist, like you claim, merely that it is a poor one. There is no imaginary cut off of so many transactions equal a price system and below that none exists.

With your statement of this being a precursor to "classic economic theory" I also mentioned that earlier, but this merely serves to demonstrate that mediums of exchange such as commodity money exist with very rudimentary market conditions.


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## k0xxx

The whole argument of whether PM's will have value post SHTF is totally dependent on what the "S" is that HTF and it's aftermath. If we are all back to subsistence farming, then PM's will likely have little to no value. For PM's to have no value, the "S" would have to be truly catastrophic on a fairly global level. 

If instead the "S" turns out to be something along the lines of a Balkan style breakup or a Argentina/Zimbabwe style meltdown, then PM's will. I don't prep for a subsistence existence because frankly my wife and I wouldn't survive it given our health issues, so why bother. 

Given recent world events, I am of the mind that the latter scenario is more likely (unless it all spirals into a widespread nuclear war :nuts: )


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## Magus

I want a 500 gallon water hauler, a supply of filters and a still that does more than a quart at a time.
Everybody needs water, especially if there's nothing in the tap.


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