# Weather n Random Thoughts



## RedAlert (Oct 27, 2013)

Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global "Peak Oil" and related geo-political events.

So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocalypse Bible prophesy readers? To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world. And this is what's so scary.

The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question."

According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, "America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."

If you are like 99% of the people reading this letter, you have never heard of the term "Peak Oil". I had not heard the term until a few months ago. Since learning about Peak Oil, I have had my worldview, and basic assumptions about my own individual future turned completely upside down.

A little about myself: A few months ago, I was a 25 year old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam. I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the "American Dream."

Peak Oil has caused me to seriously question how realistic this vision of my life is.

Whether you're 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you are about to read will shake the foundations of your life.

Below you find a brief explanation of Peak Oil, the ramifications, and what we can do about it. For the sake of simplicity, I have designed the following explanation for somebody unfamiliar with Peak Oil. If you would like more in depth explanations with graphs, charts, and the like, please consult the extensive interviews, articles and sites I have linked to throughout this site.

What is "Peak Oil"?

The question is not "When will we run out of oil?", but rather, "When does oil extraction become prohibitively expensive?"

All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.

For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve. "Peak Oil" is the industry term for the top of the curve. Once we pass the peak, we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.

In practical terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, while production will be at 1980 levels, consumption and cost of extraction will will be at 2020 levels.

While we will not run out of oil for anytime soon, it will become so expensive and rare a commodity in the next 5-15 years, that the real world effects will be as though we did run out.

When will Peak Oil occur?

The most wildly optimistic estimates indicate 2020 will be the year in which worldwide oil production peaks. Generally, these estimates come from the government.

A more realistic estimate is between the year 2004-2010. Unfortunately, we won't know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it. Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year. It is possible that the year 2000 was the year of peak oil production, as production has dipped every year since.

The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. For instance in an article entitled "A Revolutionary Transformation," the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson stated: "By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today."

That sounds pretty bad, but I don't drive an SUV or anything. Even if gas prices get high, I could probably still make ends meet. Why should I be concerned?

Almost every current human endeavor from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies.

Commercial food production is oil powered. All pesticides are petroleum based, and all commercial fertilizers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas.

Oil based agriculture has been fantastic for food production. Oil allowed for farming implements such as tractors and food storage and transport systems such as refrigerators and trucks. As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the population. As the population went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil.

Unfortunately, we are at a point where the demand for food/oil has been rising exponentially, and is expected to continue to do so. Oil (food) production, however, is about to drop dramatically.

Within a few years of Peak Oil occurring, food production will plummet because of the cost of fertilizer will soar. The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) what little food that is produced will also soar. Unless you grow all your own food on your own local, self sustained farm, you will have to deal with the food shortage.

Oil is also required for nearly every consumer item, water supply pumping, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police, fire services, and national defense.

Additionally, as you are probably already aware, wars are often fought over oil.

Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of **** sapiens.

This is known as the post-oil "die-off". The term "die-off" captures perfectly the nightmare that is at our doorstep.

The wolf is at the door....Oil shocks start by 2015 per World Bank & IMF

Sources & Academic References 
170 Academic "Peer Reviewed" Scientific Papers: All confirm this letter is valid
http://http://www.peakoil.net/publications/peer-reviewed-articles


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## RedAlert (Oct 27, 2013)

*Questions*

Questions & Criticism

You're not even trained in science. What makes you think you know what you are talking about?

I am simply taking what the true experts are saying and condensing it into a bite size format. Alot of the Peak Oil websites are not what I would call "newbie friendly." Also, many fail to explain Peak Oil in the context of recent world events. So I created this one.

I bet your'e some kind of raving, monomaniacal, left wing freak. Why should I think you're any more credible than every other crazy person with a website?

If you think I'm writing this as a result of a mental disturbance or political agenda, then ignore everything on this page and look it up for yourself on Google.

I'm by nature an optimist. Peak Oil sounds too pessimistic for me to accept as reality.

If you think that Peak Oil is too "pessimistic" for your tastes, ask yourself:

1. Was Winston Churchill being a "pessimist" in 1940 when he told Britain, "I have nothing to offer you but blood, toil, tears, and sweat."?

2. Was Albert Einstein being a "pessimist" when he told FDR in 1939 that Nazi Germany was in the process of developing an atomic bomb?

There is a difference between an "optimist" and a fool. An optimist is somebody who looks at bleak facts and decides to make the best of the situation that they can. A fool is somebody who looks at bleak facts and decides to ignore them because they are too upsetting.

This is not a case of "looking at the glass half empty." We are looking at barrel of oil, and it is not simply half empty. It is totally empty.


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## RedAlert (Oct 27, 2013)

*Emotionaly Sensitive*

If Peak Oil is too much for you to worry about, feel free to ignore the facts and stick your head in the sand. Remember, however, that when you stick your head in the sand, you leave your ass exposed for the world to kick.


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

RedAlert said:


> If Peak Oil is too much for you to worry about, feel free to ignore the facts and stick your head in the sand. Remember, however, that when you stick your head in the sand, you leave your ass exposed for the world to kick.


kinda bankrupt on the Peak Oil thing...Excommunicated


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

Went up lookin for deer this evening, was real foggy in the valley, but it was nice in the hills.,


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## PipLogan (Apr 25, 2011)

It's 30* and freaking windy!


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## camo2460 (Feb 10, 2013)

FatTire said:


> Went up lookin for deer this evening, was real foggy in the valley, but it was nice in the hills.,


I see deer in my back yard all the time and a going to try to harvest one with an AtlAtl this year. How about you, do you hunt with a bow or rifle?


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

I ran over a Dove today...it broke my heart...


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

camo2460 said:


> I see deer in my back yard all the time and a going to try to harvest one with an AtlAtl this year. How about you, do you hunt with a bow or rifle?


Thats seriously kewl bud! 
Rifle this year, but I have a bow im handy with too


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## camo2460 (Feb 10, 2013)

I hate it when that happens, seems such a waste


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## Justaguy987 (Mar 2, 2013)

oddly, the sun is now down and the temp has gone up to 61*. It has been a great day!


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## Justaguy987 (Mar 2, 2013)

Thank you for participating in the "anti troll weather reports."


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

what is it with peak oil and this guy? it's like a religion. he's an evangelist that just cant shut up and believe that there's science that supports the other side too.


we get it.... you're a peak oil super freak. now will you please stop?


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## lovetogrow (Jan 25, 2011)

:feedtroll:


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

I once had a troll named peak oil. He sat on my butt like a boil. I popped it so seemed but it sooned returned. So I lanced it and now it's a turd...


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

The fog rolled in this afternoon like it was the set on some horror movie shot in London! We hardly ever get fog here but we've had it almost every day for the last week.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

We had a beer on the porch this afternoon because it was so nice outside. The chickens came running over to see if we had any treats for them (we did).

It looks like Uncle Joe will be taking the trash out again - he knows how much we like a clean house.


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

What I really wanna do is harvest a turkey with a bow. I keep resolving to make it happen and every year life messes up my plans...


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

RevWC said:


> I once had a troll named peak oil. He sat on my butt like a boil. I popped it so seemed but it sooned returned. So I lanced it and now it's a turd...


It's going to take 20 minutes to clean the coffee off my computer! :rofl::rofl:


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## RedAlert (Oct 27, 2013)

Dakine said:


> what is it with peak oil and this guy? it's like a religion. he's an evangelist that just cant shut up and believe that there's science that supports the other side too.
> 
> we get it.... you're a peak oil super freak. now will you please stop?



Were is the science on the other side? You didn't provide any proof and I know their isn't any. So I know your just scared so you are using "MAKE BELIEVE"


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

FatTire said:


> What I really wanna do is harvest a turkey with a bow. I keep resolving to make it happen and every year life messes up my plans...


I have harvested a few with the 22LR but never even thought to try a bow. That would take more skill at sitting quiet than I have.

I did get a fine deer the past two years with my muzzle loader. I love the 209 inline.. But nothing beats the flintlock with a simple cut patch, hand cast ball and a little black powder.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

I cleaned all the crap out of the aerator that goes on the kitchen faucet. I guess I splattered some of it on this forum.... oops....


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

mosquitomountainman said:


> The fog rolled in this afternoon like it was the set on some horror movie shot in London! We hardly ever get fog here but we've had it almost every day for the last week.


Same here! We got a very heavy cloud cover too and now there are reports for rain/storms on Monday!


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

stanb999 said:


> I have harvested a few with the 22LR but never even thought to try a bow. That would take more skill at sitting quiet than I have.
> 
> I did get a fine deer the past two years with my muzzle loader. I love the 209 inline.. But nothing beats the flintlock.


Ive only done a very little black powder shooting, .44 pistol n fifty cal cap n ball rifle.. really fun way to spend a snowy afternoon...

we did some 'reload the brits are comming!' Stuff, was very fun, but damn, can you imagine tryong to reload while being shot at! Wow!


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

RedAlert said:


> W*h*ere is the science on the other side? You didn't provide any proof and I know their*THERE* isn't any. So I know you*'*r*e* just scared so you are using "MAKE BELIEVE"


fixed!!!!!


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## RedAlert (Oct 27, 2013)

hope you prep hard because once peak oil hits we go back to the dark age


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

I'm going to like this game


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

Dakine said:


> fixed!!!!!


Yeah. That's showing it's colors. And yet it claims; "I'm so much better educated than you hillbilly's."

Yeah I'll take the trash out shortly. Just wanted to see how the weather was everywhere.


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

The hills earlier this eveni.g...


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

This is important...


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

RedAlert said:


> hope you prep hard because once peak oil hits we go back to the dark age


Oh Look! We've pushed the end of the world back to about 2040 now. A few threads ago it was "*within the next year, 2 at the most."*

Good consistent statistics. :rofl: :rofl:


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> Yeah. That's showing it's colors. And yet it claims; "I'm so much better educated than you hillbilly's."
> 
> Yeah I'll take the trash out shortly. Just wanted to see how the weather was everywhere.


bah! I will never win the ivy league pedigree debate, I don't even try. I just know from experience that grammar nazi's drive pimple popping weasel trolls crazy so I thought I'd share and enlighten our visitor... for what little time he has in this version...


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

I made a double batch of Zuppa Tuscana- a batch for tonight and a batch in the freezer. I still want to make a triple batch to can.


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

fattire said:


> the hills earlier this eveni.g...
> 
> View attachment 6949


beautiful!


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

It's supposed to rain here during the night and I'll post how much rain we got with the next weather report thread (which I'm sure will be here some time in the wee hours).


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## RedAlert (Oct 27, 2013)

Why do political and economical leaders DENY peak oil ? FEAR

LIE/Avoid mass panic, profit as much as possible before the shit hits the fan. 

And do not give merit to quote "Conspiracy theorist" 

They are aware they know about it and they are TERRIFIED you the public finding out. The CIA called Collin Campbell who started the International assocaition for the study of peak oil and gas. And who is considered the leading world expert on the subject. The CIA according to Dr Campbell called him twice and tried to arrange meeting. He declined both attempts, then they called him again and told him they were standing outside his home in Ireland. He went outside and met with them all they wanted to know was "HOW LONG TILL THE AMERICA PUBLIC FIND OUT ABOUT PEAK OIL?"

They know all about this ticking time bomb and how its going to collapse everything including their own wealth and power. Less then 3 years to go!


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

Hey thanks grimm 

Joe I had a thought.. instead of deleting the social retard, you ciukd just merge all his threads here, and keep this thread as a weather n random thoughts thread.,, justa thought


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

FatTire said:


> Hey thanks grimm
> 
> Joe I had a thought.. instead of deleting the social retard, you ciukd just merge all his threads here, and keep this thread as a weather n random thoughts thread.,, justa thought


I like the random thoughts thread!

On that topic...

Looks like my Jeep is going to be a fixer upper.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

He could create a private "Don't Care" forum to which no one has access and put them there.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

FatTire said:


> Hey thanks grimm
> 
> Joe I had a thought.. instead of deleting the social retard, you ciukd just merge all his threads here, and keep this thread as a weather n random thoughts thread.,, justa thought


Not bad. I think I'll even rename the thread "Weather n random thoughts" :2thumb:


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> Not bad. I think I'll even rename the thread "Weather n random thoughts" :2thumb:


Nice.
artydance:artydance:artydance:artydance:


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

RedAlert said:


> *Self Portrait*


Very fitting.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

OK. We have a new title.


Helped my sister move today. Wouldn't have been too bad if she wasn't 70 miles north of me. 3 hours round trip driving time and 2 hours to load the truck and move her 8 miles.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

Uncle Joe..... the trash is bagged and tagged and ready to go.....


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

UncleJoe said:


> OK. We have a new title.


Excellent.... you always were my favorite uncle!


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

UJ,

Yeah, I'm getting bored because I think we broke it.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

Grimm said:


> UJ,
> 
> Yeah, I'm getting bored because I think we broke it.


Well I showed it the door but never fear, it'll be back to brighten your day.


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> Well I showed it the door but never fear, it'll be back to brighten your day.


haters gotta hate.


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## Grimm (Sep 5, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> Well I showed it the door but never fear, it'll be back to brighten your day.


He is worse than an infected boil. Maybe that's why he posted that self portrait...


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## txcatlady (Sep 26, 2013)

Love the way you make things happen! I will do a cheer as you put those trolls far, far away. By the way it is raining at my house. Lots of thunder but a soft gentle rain on my metal roof. Love, love, love it! Blessings to all.


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## Hooch (Jul 22, 2011)

Grimm....ewhh!! gawd that butt pic is so nasty...is that a faces (or butts)of meth ??...even still im laughing tho..

reminded me of a funny pic I saw this am of a woman shaving her legs in a bathtub..one leg extended up a bit to shave, the saying on it was a reminder that, If while your shaving your legs in the bathtub and your vagina sounds like chubacca is drowning...might be time to shave that too..." 

People really have these issues?? gawd!!..lol...

btw...it was frackin cold n foggy as all heck my whole weekend..the type of fog that seeps down into your bones...but today its sunny..chill but sunny...of course im back at work...

sorry bout the jeep grimm...

I wana go backpackin in New Zeland for a long time and go to Australia too

I shaved my legs last night and no odd sounds .....good to go :flower:


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