# What's going to happen in the first 30 days after it hits the fan?



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

I have a theory. The collapse could be very similar whether it's started by an EMP, a solar flare, or by the loss of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Our world will go from normal to abnormal very quickly. The vast majority of people will be unprepared. So what's it going to be like?

To me, the trigger has to be the collapse of the electrical grid on a national scale. There will be very little news. Only what the government tells people over the radio. They'll probably tell us that the situation is temporary and not to panic. They might even say that the situation is localized and not national. They might tell people that help is on the way even if it isn't. Maybe there will be places you can report to in order to get food and water. Maybe a lot of people will show up ready to go to the FEMA camps. 

Depending on where you live things could get out of hand almost immediately or it could take a week or two. I think people will get together with family and friends. They'll pool their food. People who have guns can hunt small game and cook it together.

I think a lot of houses and apartments will be left empty. It won't be long and their will be looting on a vast scale. As well as groups of people going from house to house to kill and loot.

I think the best strategy early on if you bug in is to keep the drapes shut, the doors locked, and don't answer the door. Keep as quiet as possible. Cover the windows from the inside with blankets or whatever else you can think of to keep inside light from being seen from the outside.

If somebody tries to break in, warn them, then shoot to kill. Maybe houses that have blood stains on the front porches will be left alone. 

Anybody have any other ideas?


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

BillS, you surprise me.that's actually good advice!
keep up the good work and you'll never hear from me again.


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## Von Helman (Oct 31, 2009)

I think it will be best to stay inside too while the herd is being culled... don't want to get caught up in the stampede to the slaughter house. 

Also if you sense or get a report of a MAJOR SHTF in your area then drop everything you are doing and start filling every container in your home with water ASAP!. This includes taking every pot, pan, drinking glass and soup bowl out of the kitchen cabinets and fill them up with water. stack them all over the place but fill everything up. This includes your bathtubs too. 

you can always use the water later for plants or on your yard if your water service isn't interrupted but if the town water lines go down and you don't have water you only have yourself to blame.


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

At first it will be disbelief, then a oh no moment. Shortly there after panic gonna set in when folk relize ther ipad, cell phones an such er not workin no more, oh yeah, then when facebook goes down the world really gonna crash round there heads.

Best thin ta do be gather all available resources ya can get yer hands on in addition ta what yall already got. Then get ta where ya plan on stayin an start securin yer property. You've now switched inta survival mode, trust no one, give out no information, be as invisible as possible but always aware a the surrondins. If somethin don't look right er feel right be very wary a it.

Gather information from whatever sources ya can, radio (it'll work as long as they got diesel fer the generators) shortwave radio (there great an ain't all that expensive, ya get a variety a information that way), CB radio's cause ya can run em offin a car battery, just don't start tellin folk where ya be, cause they will pay ya a visit. Ifin FEMA er some other agency shows up in yer area handin out food an materials it ain't a bad idear ta go see what they got, take what they give ya an listen ta what the conversations be. Good way ta gather information an ya look just like everbody else (if yall be wise).

Always be ready ta change yer plan, ya just never know what gonna happen. This be sumtin we hope ta never experience, but just like insurance, ya hope ta never use it but yall still gotta have it.


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## Solonot1 (Apr 11, 2012)

Where I'm at (Hickam AFB, HI) it would be different. I'm guessing we would go hyper security mode. Food and supplies would be the biggest concern since Hawaii imports 80% of food/goods.

The civilian population would look to the bases here for help/supplies. Depending on the shtf scenario we would be disconnected from the mainland and most of the world for a while, and would have to function on our own. We got plenty of military, army, navy, marines and air force. 

Another concern would be who would try and take advantage of the situation. Would china come knocking? Knowing we would still be able to resist? Depending on EMP or economic collapse the sit could change.

Best I can do is stock pile food. Water is easily accessible here. Medical supplies and other hygiene items also a must.

If I make it to TX before anything happens, plans would change. Here for a couple more years do.,,


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

Because the people on this forum are very aware of SHTF situations, it will be obvious to us. But 80% of the population will be oblivious to what's happening. It will take weeks for most people to understand how serious it is.

It only takes 10% of the populace to make runs on the stores and clean off the shelves or to fill up their cars and empty the gas station of the fuel. Or take all their money out of a bank and leave the bank with no cash.

It will take the government days if not weeks to fiquire out what happened and even get a clue of the nature of the problem.

Without the government making a statement, every one will just be speculating about the problem. And the government may not make a statement if the problem is very serious.

I've seen it to many times. A full blown blizzard is in process, there's a foot of snow on the ground and 3 foot drifts and another foot of snow coming and people get in there cars and try to go to work and make it to the end of their street. A major flood hit my area and I sat on a hill overlooking a bridge with about 2 feet of water raging over it and see several cars and trucks try to cross it and get swept down the creek, what were they thinking "it doesn't look that bad". 3 people died. These were people that had the problem right in front of them and they didn't see it. How are people going to fathom a problem without news they can trust telling them what's going on.


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## Von Helman (Oct 31, 2009)

Tweto said:


> A major flood hit my area and I sat on a hill overlooking a bridge with about 2 feet of water raging over it and see several cars and trucks try to cross it and get swept down the creek, what were they thinking "it doesn't look that bad". 3 people died. These were people that had the problem right in front of them and they didn't see it. How are people going to fathom a problem without news they can trust telling them what's going on.


This is the reality of the situation with 90% of the people out there and its rather sad.


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## chris88idaho (Apr 30, 2012)

Old coot, I'd not transmit on cb radio if I were you (listening is fine) very simple to to locate your position using signal strength or triangulation.

Just a thought.


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

Yall never transmitt from base, ya move round alot, but still keep it ta a minimum cause they can home in on yer general area. Keep it short an only when needed.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

I've been told that with a CB if you raise/lower your voice while transmitting it makes it harder to locate your position. With radio, in order to locate you, they hone in on the strongest signal but with a CB the signal strength changes according to the volume of your voice. If the signal strength is continuously changing they can't get a definite fix on you. It would be interesting to hear from those in the know as to whether this is true or not.

The downside of CB is that there are so few channels available that it's easy to listen in on your conversation. That's the same with the FRS/GMRS channels. At least with HAM radio you have thousands of frequencies to choose from. They can still scan you but if you keep transmissions short it's more difficult to find the channel you're on because there are so many to chose from.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

If you're going to talk on CB you need to arrange some type of code beforehand for certain subjects. Such as places, activities, and times of day. If you're going to meet someone at a certain place and a certain time you don't want to say that in ordinary English.


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

Back in the day[70's and 80's] there was a "filter you could build that played hell with triangulating one's position but you had to use a directional antenna.

like the man says, code and encode.anyone here remember "packet radio"?


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

Magus said:


> Back in the day[70's and 80's] there was a "filter you could build that played hell with triangulating one's position but you had to use a directional antenna.
> 
> like the man says, code and encode.anyone here remember "packet radio"?


Some what, but ain't dealt with it in ferever.

Really wanna through a monkey wrench inta the works? Morse code usin codes!


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

1) Gas shortage
2) Money shortage, as people pull money out of banks, and then realize the bank doesnt actually have their 'money' Shocker!
Both of which lead to:
3) Food shortage, the worst situation. Prices skyrocketing, no gas/no money=no food in the store. Stores emptying immediately cause a panic.
4) Chaos in the streets, with looting by desparate people trying to obtain food/water, and the bad guys just being bad.
5) Martial law, to the extent it could be pulled off.


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## goatlady (Nov 7, 2011)

A bit confusing as the OP stated the electric grid went totally down then goes on to say the people will get directions on their radios??? No power = no radios will work as the majority of people do NOT have battery radios. That scenario to me says mobs will be in the streets trying to GET information and then getting unruly and then full blown rioting.


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

goatlady, I know what yall thinkin, but cars have radio's an batteries, even if they be outa gas, fer a few days they'll run the radio. But mob mentality still gonna rule.


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## torquemada (May 6, 2012)

I don't know about mass looting and rioting I think most people are going to be sh!tle$$. In today's kinder gentler society most people have never had a fight let alone. Priced there real opinion using harsh words unless it was via text or interweb. In large cities and "ghettos" maybe but suburbia I don't think so. We have on a whole turned soft at least in first world countries. Third world I can tell you stories but I think most will watch the power go out then the water and the rest of our it will always be there type utilities and then the shock will set in and most will starve for lack of knowledge or willpower.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

goatlady said:


> A bit confusing as the OP stated the electric grid went totally down then goes on to say the people will get directions on their radios??? No power = no radios will work as the majority of people do NOT have battery radios. That scenario to me says mobs will be in the streets trying to GET information and then getting unruly and then full blown rioting.


I have a battery operated radio just for that very reason.


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## ONEOLDCHIEF (Jan 5, 2012)

I do not know if you guys have seen "The Day After Armagedon", (produced by National Geographic I think), it gave us plenty to think about and convinced us to step up our Prep... Within the first thirty days many Americans will be dead and dying, some will be friends and family. It will become Kill or be Killed mentality, I really will hate to take a life but I will protect my Family.


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## chris88idaho (Apr 30, 2012)

CBs: almost all civilian radios are omnidirectional (transmit in all directions) CB (citizen band) is most likely to have people listening in on it. CB will never break LOS(line of sight) curvature of the earth(about 20 to 30 miles) further limited by mountains, buildings, and weather. 

As soon as you key the mike I have some idea based on strength how close you are. The more you talk the more I can learn about your relation to me. If I were to have others helping me it would speed up locating you a lot.

When you key a mike, regardless of what you speak, you also say "here I am!"


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

BillS said:


> I think the best strategy early on if you bug in is to keep the drapes shut, the doors locked, and don't answer the door. Keep as quiet as possible. Cover the windows from the inside with blankets or whatever else you can think of to keep inside light from being seen from the outside.
> 
> If somebody tries to break in, warn them, then shoot to kill. Maybe houses that have blood stains on the front porches will be left alone.
> 
> Anybody have any other ideas?


In the bug in vs. bug out debate one thing that I think people often overlook is how modern industrial sites will react in a SERIOUS mid to long term event, to the loss of power. If you are no where near a nuke plant, chemical storage cite, etc. the this doens't apply to you, but for those who are withing 50k of a site that stores hazardous materials what will happen after a week or two without diesel to run those big back up generators? Or what if those backups themselves are fried by an EMP. The Nuclear Regelatory Commission requires that all nuke plants have a plan to evacuate EVERYONE within 10k of a plant. Do a google search for your local plant's emergency maps, if you are in the PEAK mortality area, get out of dodge ASAP, if you are in the PEAK injury area I would also suggest getting out of dodge. You can shoot a looter, but you can't shoot radiation.










 I am currently on the border of one of the Red zones


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

water, sanitation, nuclear power plants, prisons are the big issues
Food is a minor issue. Security as a moderate issue.


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## ContinualHarvest (Feb 19, 2012)

The sheeple will start looting after a week or so. That's why it's so important to have some things put away long before then.


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## md1911 (Feb 9, 2012)

ContinualHarvest said:


> The sheeple will start looting after a week or so. That's why it's so important to have some things put away long before then.


I agree some will start looting sooner. But most of the population will go a week or so before the realization sets in. Then they will loot. Look at some of the third world countries and you can get an idea of how human life losses value.


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

I believe looting will start within 24 hours. Again the clueless sheeple will take big screen tv's and DVRs.


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## SuspectZero (Feb 3, 2011)

All we need to do is look at Katrina for the short term results. Nine meals from anarchy. It took much less than a week for choas to insue. Looting, rape, gunshots, robbery, and the list goes on. Long term look at what Greece is going through. A slow death. The amount of homeless has doubled as well as people leaving the country. FEMA will open those doors and take us all in. Most stores resupply every 1.5 days. A run on food system wide will occur as well as gas. Instant hyperinflaiton as will as shortages. Most people can't go one day without facebook or freak when their phone dies. Try a world with none of that. Most won't know how to live. Fortitude and the right state of mind will prevail over gadgets and gear. Everyone will run out of something. No one person can do it all.


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## Kellog (Mar 3, 2012)

Here's a report from 2006 on looting after Katrina. 
http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/research/qr/qr184/qr184.html

I think it pretty well sums up my personal experience in the aftermath of hurricanes and other untoward events. Crooks will be crooks but many more people actually try to help one another. Reports of looting are often exaggerated by the media.

IMHO, to be truly prepared, the most important skill a prepper can develop is critical thinking and the ability to evaluate information accurately. Otherwise we will live in fear and be swayed by rumor and respond to situations incorrectly - and that itself could be dangerous. Stop and think whether assumptions and disaster memes jibe with the facts and reality. The reality of a disaster is not like the movies or the dramatic, selective media reports we see and hear. Be smart, be prepared, but don't be fearful.


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

OldCootHillbilly said:


> Some what, but ain't dealt with it in ferever.
> 
> Really wanna through a monkey wrench inta the works? Morse code usin codes!


It was a black-market doo-dad built into an ammo box with two jacks, one in, one out and a power coupling and an on switch.ever hear those jerks who played like they had a radio station on CB? that's how they kept from getting busted by the FCC. No clue what was in it though,Last time I saw one was 25 years ago.


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## DKRinAK (Nov 21, 2011)

The US hasn't really had a 'bad day' on a wide scale since the end of the 1860s.

A close look at what Argentina went through, and is still going through may be a bit more instructive - the difference in political systems notwithstanding.

A fellow called Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre (ferfal.blogspot.com) has a blog with some details.

Several things led to their undoing - detailed here
http://www.economist.com/node/1010911

This piece talks of cash starvation and barter markets
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-11-03/argentinas-collapse-and-grassroots-resilience

And more about crime here
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/argentina-case-study-how-economy-collapses/59179
given the sharp rise in weapons sales in the US, maybe folks are just reading the papers and drawing their own conclusions.

What ever happens, it will be both long and painful - and made worse by the political whores in DC who try and cover the problems like a six-legged cat in a sandbox.

For those of you still living in bigger cities, I can only wish you the best of luck....


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

*Considerations*



BillS said:


> I have a theory. The collapse could be very similar whether it's started by an EMP, a solar flare, or by the loss of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Our world will go from normal to abnormal very quickly. The vast majority of people will be unprepared. So what's it going to be like?
> 
> To me, the trigger has to be the collapse of the electrical grid on a national scale.


The biggest asset in a SHTF situation is being able to think outside the box. I think you increase your chances of survival a hundred fold, if you realize its happening on day 1 and do whatever you plan to do bug in or bug out.

I think is is HUGELY important to be ok with being wrong and not to over sell it to our skeptical friends and family. Don't over dramatize it: its not TEOTWAWKI, its "a vacation." A movie just came out last year called "Take Shelter" [!SPOILER ALERT!] about a man who was having dreams about an impending disaster. Like Noah he made preparations, and then the sirens rang, he took shelter, and looked like a fool the next day when the regular old Tornado had passed. Giving his skepitical wife the ammunition she needed to say--"see I told you so." And so they go on vacation, far from the shelter he built and irony or ironies, she sees the errore of her ways as she looks into an oncoming Tsunami.

The most dangerous SHTF, is a slow lingering collapse, I think. Dangerous because the daily new normal threatens to slowly acclimate us to the SHTF so that we miss the fact that it has happened. It's also dangerous because it gives the government time to think, and try to DO SOMETHING. Like a man drowning, the government, having convinced themselves of their own importance and ability to enact positive change, will flail about wildly and do a lot of collateral damage in the process. Food and gun confiscations, force relocation, road blocks, travel restrictions, curfews, martial law, these are all risks if the government doesn't loose control quickly, and of course in the long run they may be inevitable in higher population areas.

I don't think most public utilities will go off-line immediately if the dollar collapses, what is the physical reason for them to go down. A dollar debasement or economic collapse will be met with bank runs, food runs, and gas runs and only as the situation on the ground gets more precarious, as button pushers and mechanics stop showing up to work or fuels become scarce will utilities begin to fail. But the shit will have hit the fan long before the lights go out, particularly over a large area, in a economically driven SHTF.

If the grid goes out at the onset, for whatever reason, I think you will have a down time, a lull, before the SHTF. We have been brainwashed to believe that electricity will always be there, and that an outage is always short lived. Initially I think most people, outside the inner city, will think its just temporary, and think that the experience will be fun. "It'll be just like camping" -- from the Remnant movie trailer. Most people in the burbs, sub and ex, will behave well I think. There may be runs on the stores (if their cars are running) but I don't think it will get crazy at first. This is for areas that are usually low crime to start with mind you.


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## LongRider (May 8, 2012)

My opinion for sometime has been the best place to be is your self sustaining homestead. That your plants are in the ground, livestock taken care of, with a sustainable breeding program in place. That you supply your own power, hunt, gather, fish, harvest what you can from the environment. Have enough stock piled and stored to get through a bad harvest or hunting season. Have a security system in place with escape option if necessary. That you implement a plan with your neighbors to set up and man a perimeter away from your homes. You do not let ANYONE pass that perimeter that does not belong. Dig in and wait.


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

Magus said:


> It was a black-market doo-dad built into an ammo box with two jacks, one in, one out and a power coupling and an on switch.ever hear those jerks who played like they had a radio station on CB? that's how they kept from getting busted by the FCC. No clue what was in it though,Last time I saw one was 25 years ago.


Yeah, pirate radio. I seen some a it when I was in Florida, feller was a communications genius. Had everthin from CB radio through Ham an commercial. He could get ya a couple hundred channels on CB alone! If he couldn't do it, it weren't gettin done.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

So in the first 30 days:
Day 1, whether the lights are out or the market is crashing, or there is a pandemic breaking out in California, I think the prepper has to be ready to move. I am in the shadow of a nuclear power station, so bug-out is the rule of the day for any long term disaster for me, but if you plan to bug in, you should be bugged in and your house should look abandoned on the first day of the SHTF, if you plan to bug out, if you can do it on day one then you are ahead of the game! 

Day 2-5 is the popping of the normalcy bias balloon. During this period people will start looking for supplies in earnest and start to realize how limited those supplies are. This is a dangerous period for our own NORMALCY BIAS, because in the suburbs communities might come together for picnics and cookouts, and you might be lulled into the everything is going to be ok bubble. If your car is working decide not to "bug out," but to "go on vacation." An EMP will make this decision easiest, because we all know that we are in it for the long hall if the power is out in electronics that are not directly dependent on the grid. By the end of the first week people will be on edge, tense because they don't have what they need to survive and there are no signs of those staples being supplied anytime soon. By day 5 I think you want to be hunkered down and off the roads wherever you plan to go to ground. 

Day 6-7 Because by day 6 or 7, if not earlier, I think you will see food runs on stores that have no food, AKA: RIOTS. If the utilities aren't off on day 1 they will probably start to fail on day 7 or there about's, and with them public service. Not all at once, but here and there, schools, trash, police, fire, ems, lights, water, etc. I would guess the last of the utilities to fail would be natural gas. By the end of this period the differences between an EMP and any other SHTF senario will just be the availability of electronics, which too will even out as power for these electronics become scarcer. 

Day 7-14 The grid will likely fail over large areas, and looting will have begun as the mighty realize they now have the "right" to survive, if they take what they need from you. I would guess that less than 10% of the population of cities and high density areas will have evacuated by this time, but as things get worse the trickle will become a FLOOD.

Day 15-21 Refugees will be a common sight. Gangs will start looting at will. Roadblocks, be they federal/state, local police, or highwaymen will begin to go up. 

Day 21-30 Mass deaths will begin due to starvation, sanitation, dehydration, AND lack of medicines that kept people alive who would have been dead without them.


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

Katrina was not exagerated by media. It was worse. Before the media got there, before the storm subsided, the looters were in full force. A lot was covered up that took place. The running down the street with a flat screen was a reality. Funny now that I look back at it. Go ahead you idiot, plug that tv in with no electricity while I eat my hot meal.


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## Mick_Jee (May 21, 2012)

If anybody's got 90 minutes to spare, this youtube film is worth watching as it scientifically charts step-by-step what would happen if humans suddenly disappeared from the earth, leaving nuke power plants, chemical factories and buildings etc unattended.
For example the protective paint on the Eiffel Tower eventually begins to flake, allowing rain to get at the steel beneath and rust it away, and in about the year 2200 down it comes-










*YOUTUBE*-


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