# Finding a post-SHTF consensus on the value of PMs, post-SHTF



## The_Exorcist

I think that it would be helpful if the Preppers in the US could come to an understanding on what the trade value of PMs would be in the event of a economic collapse.
In a General way, I am not interested in setting prices for all you goodies or any other sort of nonsense.

First of all, Gold & silver have a relative value that should be established in our informal exchange.
US Gold ounces have a printed value of 50 dollars, and I have a 1/2 ounce around here somewhere that has 25 dollars on it. all very well and good, but I am not thinking that 50-1 is accurate today. The older Solver dollars, Barbers and such, Are 2/3rds of a Dollar, and thus 33 would equal a gold 50-dollar ounce. The new Silver Eagles would thus actually be $1.50 in our new economy.

"Dollars" is a yardstick, and is strictly a measure device for this discussion. People know that it refers to money.

Moving down the scale (and keep in mind that $1.45-1.50 in "junk" silver is one ounce in any denomination) we have half-dollars, Quarters and Dimes. All of the pre-1964 coins can keep their value relative to the other silver coins ... but I'm not so sure about nickles. Nickle is useful to industry, but that's all. I don't see them being important either since 5 cents is not a crucial division of change.

Pennies are being looked at avidly by a lot of people who are trying to get into PMs at a bargain price.
But, ten pennies for one dime?
Truthfully, I cannot see this being accepted. The biggest alteration to our hypothetical scale would be to declare 100 Pennies being equal to one Dime. This mirrors the current value of commodities when it comes to Copper v. Silver, and seems more than fair to fans of both metals, and not allowing gold to become too dominant.
I have all three, keeping all bases covered.


Now, here comes the hard part- what should this be able to buy?
IMHO, we might start with a list of prices from just before the year 1900, when the average Laboring Joe made 1.50 a day, a night in a good hotel room as a dollar, and two beers at the local bar was a dime.
What say you all?


((and could a mod please snip the last couple of words off the title of this thread? Damnit...))


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## TheAnt

The value of EVERYTHING post-SHTF will be varrying by region, date, and mood of the buyer and seller. It is futile to try to put a post-SHTF value on ANYTHING pre-SHTF. Certain things will certainly have value but there is no way to get very exact at all. Some things will have value that we are all overlooking (no doubt).


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## The_Exorcist

Fine, I understand how people want the most for what they have to trade, they way people gouge each other on real-estate while whining about the price of gas is proof of that.
and that ain't the point.

Lets start with my ideas on Gold/Silver/Copper.
Does that seem reasonable?


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## SMOKEYMOUNTAIN

In a post-SHTF barter economy, a dollar/fiat currency scale will be meaningless. The only value in fiat-minted coinage in a post-SHTF barter economy is that they will be easily recognizable, and of a known weight and metal composition.

Thus, good, silver, nickel, copper, and other precious and semi-precious metals will be valued by their relative weight to composition value and nothing else. The ease of melting and the usefulness of the metal in a post-SHTF world, along with general supply and demand principles will naturally set the pricing in a free market post-SHTF world. 

So a penny will be seen as a couple grams of 95% copper, and a nickel will be seen as 5 grams of 75% coppery/25% nickel, and that's all.

As for setting prices, we can speculate all we want, but we won't know until we actual experience the market dynamics of a post-SHTF economy.


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## TheAnt

The only thing that makes sense to me is to understand gold/silver/copper in relation to each other. In other words, ratios: historically gold has been worth 16 times more than silver -- or silver 1/16 the value of gold. I dont know how copper fits into this. Maybe 1/20th silver?

In a total economic collapse the dollar wont be worth anything... and yes, I mean ANYTHING. Unless you need to stuff you matress for more comfort or wipe your backside. Oh, I know initially there will be some misinformed folks that will still take dollars but they will figure out the new economy VERY quickly.

I admit I may be missing your point and for that I apologize.


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## Nadja

Lets just say I have a garden. You come over with your gold/silver etc and want tators, corn etc and whatever I am willing to trade you. Now, you want to put a value on your pm';s right ? It is worth nothing to me, as it hurts my teeth when biting it, and wont go down to well. In other words, it has no usefull value to me at all. Does that say it to you ? Now, if you had a different type of FOOD to trade, then we would be fat city .


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## SMOKEYMOUNTAIN

Nadja said:


> Lets just say I have a garden. You come over with your gold/silver etc and want tators, corn etc and whatever I am willing to trade you. Now, you want to put a value on your pm';s right ? It is worth nothing to me, as it hurts my teeth when biting it, and wont go down to well. In other words, it has no usefull value to me at all. Does that say it to you ? Now, if you had a different type of FOOD to trade, then we would be fat city .


Good point. As I posted above, I guess a person trying to barter with PM's would have to be trading with a blacksmith or an engineer that would actually see real useful value in them.


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## Immolatus

This is a very good question. It would really come down to how badly the S has HTF. There are huge differences if were talking about an economic collapse as opposed to some kind of catastrophic event like a nuclear war, EMP, etc.
In a catastrophic event, I think pm's will have very little value on a local level. The point that all those make would be validated, because you cant eat it. On a more macro level, they will obviously have some valuebecause it will be the only form of money, but that wont mean squat if you have no food and noone will give you any for a hunk of metal. Obviously in this scenario no form of 'money' in the sense we know it will have much worth.

I am in the camp of those that believe we are headed for an economic, financial system collapse. In this scenario, pm's of any recognizable form will have great RELATIVE value, but again, ONLY IN THE WAY WE CURRENTLY SEE "MONEY". This will become the key issue.
If the 'dollar' (USD-$) becomes worthless, the published price of metals will go through the roof, but the real question is purchasing power. This will also depend on your location. If you are out in the country and are self sufficient, then a piece of metal wont be worth much to you. If you run a general store nearer to a city, then they should hold their value, because they (the store) will still be running on the existing monetary system that says silver is worth $X/oz.
A somewhat relevant example:
In 1963, a gallon of gas was about a quarter, actually closer to $.30, but for the sake of this example...
That same quarter today is worth $5.82, almost two gallons.
A 2011 quarter is worth, well, $.25, but in metal aint worth squat. Less than $.05.

So, my response to the question put forth is...well, there is no answer. It obviously depends first on what kind of calamity has befallen us, and secondly your location and circumstances.
It will ultimately come down to a personal decision reached between buyer and seller. While a dirt widget (Get it, Ant, heh heh) may sell for $50 at the store, it may not hold any value at all to you.
The buyer and seller may have to come up with their own personal supply/demand equation.
I will say that it would make no sense to say it 'has no value' at all, because you would be shorting yourself, but this would all depend on your specific situation. If you have all you need and more, then you would be wise to accept pm's in trade. If you dont, then you would assumedly not get 'full value' (whatever that may mean at the time) for your gold.
I personally would expect to get full value. If I was fully prepped for whatever calamity and had goods to sell, well then I would have the buyer over a barrel, and they would have to accept the price I quote, or amscray.

For the sake of this post, I will give a more definite answer.
If silver goes to $1000/oz because of a collapse, and the price of a house or land (to someone who has it to sell) will have dropped by the same percentage as silver has risen, then a coupla hunnert oz's will buy you a sweet setup, be it McMansion or homestead.
If were talking strictly financial collapse, then things will still be measured in (rediculously devalued) dollars, and the metal will hold 100% of its value, while everything else (excluding things like food, water and lead based projectiles) will drop like a rock.


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## BillS

I think what makes the most sense is using today's prices with today's gold and silver prices. A 1964 dime is worth about $2.30 today. That makes nickels and pennies worth very little and it makes them difficult to trade with. Nickels are worth about 5 cents right now. Pre-1982 pennies are worth 2 cents. Pennies after that are worth 1 cent. I can't imagine taking the time to verify the dates on a pile of pennies or wanting to count a big pile of nickels.

I think gold and silver will still be valuable after a collapse. Not right after. Food will be the most valuable thing after a collapse. But at some point the government will regain control of the country. Gold and silver have been valuable for thousands of years. I don't expect that to ever change.


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## FrankW

I think PM will have value even in an extreme collapse.

Think about it even an extreme collapse that brngs us back to 1620 where people often starved... in 16020 Golad and silver was used plenty.

Thats one rreason why i like pure Silver coins. They are failry large in 1 Troy oz and recognizably shiny.

The old 90% silver denomination coins are confusing to me.

Probaly confusing to a lot of people.
which will make them elss accepted and therefore worth less.
but everyone can see the value in a coin of pure silver troy oz.

It will have a significant value.
Not huge, i dont want too huge because then its not practical as currency.

Might I pay a silver coin for a loaf of bread? hopefully not but its possible.


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## k0xxx

FWIW...

All throughout recorded human history there have been some truly terrible SHTF times. In no instance did the societal value of gold or silver go to zero, in fact, the opposite is true. It may have been zero in individual cases where people were starving, but for the whole of society PM's have been traded as money and have been a store of wealth. Even in modern history, where economic collapses have occurred, gold and silver have been traded for goods or for whatever currency was in use. Be it the Dark Ages or Nazi Germany, PM's have been used for trade, payment, or even to buy one's way out of trouble.

There will always be those that say "If you can't eat it, it's worthless". Generally, it is usually those that are late to the PM "game" and they hope that everyone else is wrong. History however, proves otherwise, and we all know the old adage about "Those that do not learn history..."

There can be no consensus on what the value of PM's will be in the next crisis, that will only be established by the type, severity, duration of the crisis, and so many other factors that I don't believe could be adequately pre-considered.

Suffice to say that there will always be proponents and detractors of PM's. That being so, I will err on the side of precedent and caution. YMMV


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## BillS

BlueZ said:


> I think PM will have value even in an extreme collapse.
> 
> Think about it even an extreme collapse that brngs us back to 1620 where people often starved... in 16020 Golad and silver was used plenty.
> 
> Thats one rreason why i like pure Silver coins. They are failry large in 1 Troy oz and recognizably shiny.
> 
> The old 90% silver denomination coins are confusing to me.
> 
> Probaly confusing to a lot of people.
> which will make them elss accepted and therefore worth less.
> but everyone can see the value in a coin of pure silver troy oz.
> 
> It will have a significant value.
> Not huge, i dont want too huge because then its not practical as currency.
> 
> Might I pay a silver coin for a loaf of bread? hopefully not but its possible.


I see it the other way. I wouldn't know if your 1 ounce silver coin is genuine but I'll know that a 1950 quarter is.


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## invision

BillS said:


> I see it the other way. I wouldn't know if your 1 ounce silver coin is genuine but I'll know that a 1950 quarter is.


Its under $20 for a silver test kit... i now have 5 for my supplies. To me its well worth the price. I think long term also, the silver i am buying is an investment for the long term. Whether or not there is a real shtf scenario, and since I can't play in the market. The past 10 years have shown both gold & silver to be a wise investment strategy.

I don't understand the mind set that bullets and beans will become the defacto currency once the shtf- yes short term. But 1-2 yrs post, i don't see it staying that way... commerce has been established since the earliest form of civilization, why would it change?


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## ras1219como

invision said:


> Its under $20 for a silver test kit... i now have 5 for my supplies. To me its well worth the price.


Amazon is selling gold and silver test kits starting at under $8 plus shipping.


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## invision

ras1219como said:


> Amazon is selling gold and silver test kits starting at under $8 plus shipping.


Yep, I knew they were cheap... I got mine through amazon too, but to lazy to look up actual price... Figured stating under $20 was close enough...


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## labotomi

Nadja said:


> Lets just say I have a garden. You come over with your gold/silver etc and want tators, corn etc and whatever I am willing to trade you. Now, you want to put a value on your pm';s right ? It is worth nothing to me, as it hurts my teeth when biting it, and wont go down to well. In other words, it has no usefull value to me at all. Does that say it to you ? Now, if you had a different type of FOOD to trade, then we would be fat city .


Send him my way. I have the ability to grow/raise more than I need and will gladly engage in trade instead of wasting what extra I have.

Unless you think a collapse will last forever, there should be some thought about what happens when things "normalize". I not only plan on trying to maintain what I have currently, but increase that "worth" during any time prior, during and after any collapse.

As to what a bushel of corn or wheat is worth in PMs... I have no idea. I suppose it will depend on locality. Crops people can grow locally aren't going to be worth as much as things that can't be grown there or are more difficult to grow.


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## cowboyhermit

Was thinking the same thing, we have literally tons of food and the ability to produce a surplus indefinitely, why would I trade for more?
Something else like a pm or even hard goods like bullets I can use or trade or pay wages with, veggies not so much.


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## mojo4

PM's will always have great value. Whether you trade for food, medical supplies or services (think of paying a Dr. To dig a bullet outta yer hide) its always valuable. Grow extra food you can sell it, need ammo you can buy it, want services you can obtain it. Its as good as food or other supplies and will always be worthy.


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