# Monetary scholar Edwin Vieira ... pointed out that every 30 to 40 years the reigning



## biobacon (Aug 20, 2012)

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2011/08/average-life-expectancy-for-fiat.html

David Galland notes:

Monetary scholar Edwin Vieira ... pointed out that every 30 to 40 years the reigning monetary system fails and has to be retooled. The last time around for the U.S. was in 1971, when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of dollars into gold. Remarkably, the world bought into the unbacked dollar as its reserve currency, but only because that was the path of least resistance. But here we are 40 years later, and it is clear to anyone paying attention that the monetary system is irretrievably broken and will fail.

What will replace it is still unclear, but I suspect that when the stuff really hits the fan and inflation rages the government will try the approach taken by the Germans to end their hyperinflation back in the 1920s, coming up with the equivalent of the Rentenmark - a dollar that is loosely linked to some basket of commodities and financial instruments. It won't be convertible, because it would be impossible for bank tellers to exchange your dollar for a cup of oil, and a coupon off of a bond, and a chip of gold, or whatever makes up the basket - but it might restore some semblance of confidence in the currency. That's one option. Another is that some government decides to make its currency convertible into precious metals; but that will only happen when all other less fiscally restraining systems have been floated and failed. Simply, at this point we can't know what will replace the current monetary system, or when. All we can know is that the status quo cannot and so will not survive this crisis.

Regardless, between now and the point in time where the Fed throws in the towel on today's fiat monetary system, you would have to be naïve in the extreme not to expect volatility, uncertainty, and wholesale financial dislocations.

Chris Mack writes:

According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org, there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value. Twenty percent failed through hyperinflation, 21% were destroyed by war, 12% destroyed by independence, 24% were monetarily reformed, and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes.

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month. Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence. At a ripe old age of 317 years it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency. However, success is relative. The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver, so it's worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value. In other words, the most successful long standing currency in existence has lost 99.5% of its value.

Given the undeniable track record of currencies, it is clear that on a long enough timeline the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

What cannot go on forever, will not. The financial system is broken, in fact, as someone here said, it was broken in 2007. The dollar has been on life support since then. We're just waiting for the first country to blink in this ongoing charade. 

The trigger could be anywhere, any time now. It might go on for a while yet, since nobody wants to have things come apart. The BRICS are trying to piece together an alternative system, obviously knowing the dollar will fail at some point. 

I posted elsewhere that I am reading James Rickards new book, "The Death of Money". He says there are 3 ways for this to resolve. 

The book's conclusion gives 3 ways he says the dollar failure could resolve. 
-IMF issues SDR's to reliquify the financial system. (Sounds to me like just one more kind of fiat currency Ponzi scheme.)
-Some form of gold standard for currency.
-Utter chaos. (I'm betting this has a place in the mess somewhere.)

He offers 5 coping mechanisms for dealing with this.

-gold
-land
-fine art
-special investment funds (probably his fund?)
-cash (he says cash has benefits UNTIL the collapse, since it is so easily convertible.)


Us old folks who are retired are getting hurt the worst already. Later on, we will get our savings hit hard by devaluation, IMHO.


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## Viking (Mar 16, 2009)

David Galland is one of the contributing authors for Casey Research, actually there are a number of interconnecting websites that have many great authors from whom my wife and I have gotten a financial education over the last 12 years. It started with Kitco where I started reading articles from David Galland and many others which lead to getting newsletters from Casey Research and Daily Reckoning. News With Views prints articles from Dr. Edwin Vieira. I've seen articles by Cris Mack on the Kitco site. And of course Agora Financial is a core site for many financial writers from which Daily Reckoning is a part of. We have found over the years that the contributing authors to these sites have a far greater overview of what's really going on throughout the world than all other news media, in fact these people make mainstream media and their pundits look like idiots and liars.


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## goshengirl (Dec 18, 2010)

How can we have a gold standard when we, as a nation, have no gold?


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

investing in gold is fantastic, but if it's EFT's or mining stocks and not phyz... why bother? all you're going to get is an IOU attached the same letter that you receive after the .gov declares gold is no longer allowed to be owned by citizens (they've already done it once, why wouldn't they do it again???)

land... yep! if you're there to defend it, and know how to work it and make it provide for you. If you're one of the people scrounging around looking to buy into "an acre" somewhere so you have someplace to show up and then start your garden... meh... just picking a new place to die, assuming you get there in the first place.

fine art, will be worth.. well who knows, maybe priceless. how many cherry GT500's or Stingrays or vintage WWII motorcycles are gonna get burned up, crashed up, chopped up, and then left to rot? Restoring those things now takes a real fortune, you can buy a house with that money in many cases... try it after a financial meltdown... the paintings and sculptures and original edition classic books are going to be just as fragile and frangible in that kind of a chaotic upheaval. Then again, how many people have that, or if they do, have the ability to preserve it through those kind of events?

If you're not in a position to worry about a gold standard because you have no gold and you have no wealth that you can convert to gold, then worry about what you really need... water, food, shelter, defenses, and then go from there. 

I think losing the advantage of spending FIAT dollars today while they can purchase tangible assets is the biggest mistake. Having $600 in a bank account which then devalues to $60 is still $60 while many other people may have nothing, but it will not replace the food and security you could buy right now today with $600.

There's too many examples of fiat currency pancaking. I'll choose tools and tangible assets whenever possible instead of FRN's.


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## bkt (Oct 10, 2008)

goshengirl said:


> How can we have a gold standard when we, as a nation, have no gold?


We actually have a great deal of gold...over 8000 tons which is believed to be more than any other nation. We also have a great deal of other PM. Our currency absolutely could go back to a bi-metal or multi-metals standard but obviously the quantity of metal would be vastly reduced compared to what we used prior to 1933.

People occasionally say "We can't return to a gold/silver standard because there isn't enough metal to account for all the dollars out there." That's true if you don't revalue the metal. But if you did, or more accurately, if you allowed the metal to reach its natural real value and stopped the manipulation and got rid of all the paper gold/silver, there wouldn't be a problem.

We don't need to limit ourselves to PM, either. Nickel, copper and other metals actually have value and could be used in smaller denominations.


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## Viking (Mar 16, 2009)

bkt said:


> We actually have a great deal of gold...over 8000 tons which is believed to be more than any other nation. We also have a great deal of other PM. Our currency absolutely could go back to a bi-metal or multi-metals standard but obviously the quantity of metal would be vastly reduced compared to what we used prior to 1933. We don't need to limit ourselves to PM, either. Nickel, copper and other metals actually have value and could be used in smaller denominations.


Things that have intrinsic value and are therefore good for trade of things of equal value. The very things the Chinese are after in dumping US dollars of which they hold ruffly $4 trillion, they are striving to convert that fiat money before they become stuck with useless paper. Mines, oil wells/potential oil producing land, ranches, farms, factories (that are still left here), businesses and other properties, such as just plain real estate.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Viking said:


> The very things the Chinese are after in dumping US dollars of which they hold ruffly $4 trillion, they are striving to convert that fiat money ...businesses and other properties, such as just plain real estate.


They are buying up a *TON* of real estate here.

With our $$$$

Sad, isn't it?


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

goshengirl said:


> How can we have a gold standard when we, as a nation, have no gold?


Come on now, don't you read/listen to the MSM news??? It does not really matter how much actual gold we have in reserve, it only matter what the books say we have. Germany bought this, why can't the rest of us?

Look at it this way... 10 people give me 100 ounces of gold each, to hold for them. Ok, now I have 1,000 ounces of gold in my care. The chances of EVERYONE wanting their gold back at any one time are pretty small. So, I can hold,... say 10% or 100 ounces back and do what I like with the rest, sell it, invest it, trade it, whatever, IT IS MY GOLD. Now, person 1 wants ALL their gold back, today. I tell them I'll give you 10 ounces today and the rest in installments. I go out on the open market and buy the remaining 90 ounces of gold for person 1. See, person 1 is happy now, they got all their gold back!!! Persons 2 through 10 I just show them, on paper, that I have all their gold, and they are happy it is safe with me. I can even send a picture of 90 ounces of gold, to make sure they believe me that I actually have it. Of course, it is stacked up so no way to really count each bar, but trust me, it is all there! In fact, it so secure and safe, in a secret location, that there is no way you can come in person to count it, that would be a security risk!!! I can show them the paperwork that verifies that all 100 ounces of their gold is there, what more do they want??? Ok, so the serial numbers for each bar might not match what you actually left me. But what the hay! I have soooo much gold to keep an eye on, what is a serial number anyway. It is not like I keep your gold in one pile and person two's in another, it is all in one big pile. But trust me, I have all your gold in one pile or another hidden away somewhere.

See, it is so simple! We only need to look at the books to see that we actually have several Trillion dollars worth of gold, then set the dollar standard from there. But, you or Congress can never actually see it. It is being kept secret in a super secret location. If we were to allow you to see it the terrorists would win, the safety of the children would be at risk too. Are you against the safety of the children????


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

goshengirl said:


> How can we have a gold standard when we, as a nation, have no gold?


Come on now, don't you read/listen to the MSM news??? It does not really matter how much actual gold we have in reserve, it only matter what the books say we have. Germany bought this, why can't the rest of us?

Look at it this way... 10 people give me 100 ounces of gold each, to hold for them. Ok, now I have 1,000 ounces of gold in my care. The chances of EVERYONE wanting their gold back at any one time are pretty small. So, I can hold,... say 10% or 100 ounces back and do what I like with the rest, sell it, invest it, trade it, whatever, IT IS MY GOLD. Now, person 1 wants ALL their gold back, today. I tell them I'll give you 10 ounces today and the rest in installments. I go out on the open market and buy the remaining 90 ounces of gold for person 1. See, person 1 is happy now, they got all their gold back!!! Persons 2 through 10 I just show them, on paper, that I have all their gold, and they are happy it is safe with me. I can even send a picture of 90 ounces of gold, to make sure they believe me that I actually have it. Of course, it is stacked up so no way to really count each bar, but trust me, it is all there! In fact, it so secure and safe, in a secret location, that there is no way you can come in person to count it, that would be a security risk!!! I can show them the paperwork that verifies that all 100 ounces of their gold is there, what more do they want??? Ok, so the serial numbers for each bar might not match what you actually left me. But what the hay! I have soooo much gold to keep an eye on, what is a serial number anyway. It is not like I keep your gold in one pile and person two's in another, it is all in one big pile. But trust me, I have all your gold in one pile or another hidden away somewhere.

See, it is so simple! We only need to look at the books to see that we actually have several Trillion dollars worth of gold, then set the dollar standard from there. But, you or Congress can never actually see it. It is being kept secret in a super secret location. If we were to allow you to see it the terrorists would win, the safety of the children would be at risk too. Are you against the safety of the children????


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