# Economist - "Civilization may not survive [economic] death-spiral"



## Turtle (Dec 10, 2009)

Nothing really new here, but good to see that it came up on MSN's main page.

http://moneymorning.com/ob/economis...Pub=388&prs=true&scp=false&fcapElementId=5292


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## goshengirl (Dec 18, 2010)

Thanks for posting this, Turtle. I keep hoping if my husband reads enough of these articles, he'll get on board. At least part way...


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## Lake Windsong (Nov 27, 2009)

One thing I'd like to add, because he mentions 52% of Americans feel they can barely afford the basics. Our ideas as a society as to what 'basic needs' are have changed over time. One way to ease the financial burdens now and in the future in our own families is to reassess and possibly redefine our own basic needs.
Thanks for the read. Definite food for thought.


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

Ads Lake Windsong has noted, the definition of "basics" has been modified over time. The most glaring example is the average size of home that is built today compared to what was the case in 1950, 1970, and 1990. People raised 4 children in 1,000 square foot homes and now many people feel that they're scraping by if they have to make-do with a master bathroom smaller than 1,000 sf. I jest, but not by much.

Same applies to medical care - everyone wants Cadillac Care (The TEA Party protesters are going to be in for a surprise) but no one is happy to pay the price for their own medical care. Basics in terms of medical care now means gold-plated care.


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## Moby76065 (Jul 31, 2012)

Turtle said:


> Nothing really new here, but good to see that it came up on MSN's main page.
> 
> MSN LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL


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## alwaysready (May 16, 2012)

A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

This means 39% have no idea whats comming, 61% don't know what to do and I wonder of the remaining 15% how many are really and truly prepared?


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

alwaysready said:


> A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
> 
> This means 39% have no idea whats comming, 61% don't know what to do and I wonder of the remaining 15% how many are really and truly prepared?


I can see that being slightly high - the 15% for long term, maybe 15% for 30 days... The more I talk to people, they feel the same way, but don't know what to do... I just point out do a little research, check out a few sites, typically this one.. And give them time.


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## alwaysready (May 16, 2012)

invision said:


> I can see that being slightly high - the 15% for long term, maybe 15% for 30 days... The more I talk to people, they feel the same way, but don't know what to do... I just point out do a little research, check out a few sites, typically this one.. And give them time.


I had a long talk with a coworker last week have known him for over 10 years we talk sports almost everyday. But this time he just walked up and started talking about his fears. My daily commute is 100 miles this guys lives about 60 miles past that. While we are very simular in lots of ways this was the first time our conversation went in this direction. To make a long story short we are now thinking of going half on a ton of wheat.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

alwaysready said:


> I had a long talk with a coworker last week have known him for over 10 years we talk sports almost everyday. But this time he just walked up and started talking about his fears. My daily commute is 100 miles this guys lives about 60 miles past that. While we are very simular in lots of ways this was the first time our conversation went in this direction. To make a long story short we are now thinking of going half on a ton of wheat.


Once we go off grid, do you both have the means to use that flour, as in baking?


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

alwaysready said:


> I had a long talk with a coworker last week have known him for over 10 years we talk sports almost everyday. But this time he just walked up and started talking about his fears. My daily commute is 100 miles this guys lives about 60 miles past that. While we are very simular in lots of ways this was the first time our conversation went in this direction. To make a long story short we are now thinking of going half on a ton of wheat.


Are you planning to BugOut/In together... I would suggest looking at what each other has or not, and trying to work on an equal supply for both of you.

My group is starting to get more focused, group goals on ammo, and other supplies so we have a lot of similar stuff that can be used by all when SHTF.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

alwaysready said:


> A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
> 
> This means 39% have no idea whats coming, 61% don't know what to do and I wonder of the remaining 15% how many are really and truly prepared?[/QUOTE
> 
> I think that the important word here is that *15% FEEL PREPARED*, but no one knows what will happen, all we can do is guess and try to be ready.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

Tweto said:


> alwaysready said:
> 
> 
> > A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
> ...


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## goshengirl (Dec 18, 2010)

Yep, "feeling" prepared doesn't really mean anything. 

And what are the assessment parameters for actually "being" prepared, anyway? 

But I am glad that at least 15% feel good about preparedness. Although they're probably only one tenth as prepared as a newbie on this site.


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## BlueShoe (Aug 7, 2010)

There are better avenues for information on economics out there and they're much more informative. Just go to King World News and listen to FEATURED BROADCASTS from some big names in finance, economy, trend forecasting and hedge fund managers. Eric King and his guests believe in hard assets like gold and are fiscally responsible which puts them in opposition to the Federal Reserve and World Bank gangs.

There's no good/stable way out for the Federal Reserve. It's just a matter of time. And that is the absolute nature of fiat currencies. Even communists couldn't do it right, because all people are inherently corrupt to some degree.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html

I'm going to listen to Gerald Celente right now. He's always WAY over animated so don't watch him and think that's what they all are. He's popular on lots of contrarian sights for his opinion. Michael Pento is pretty animated too, but has a GOOD handle on what the Fed is doing and what it means. And of course Rick Santelli was the founder of the TEA movement.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

You don't have to know anything about economics to know the more you have of something the less its worth.


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## labouton (Jan 24, 2011)

Lake Windsong said:


> One thing I'd like to add, because he mentions 52% of Americans feel they can barely afford the basics. Our ideas as a society as to what 'basic needs' are have changed over time. One way to ease the financial burdens now and in the future in our own families is to reassess and possibly redefine our own basic needs.
> Thanks for the read. Definite food for thought.


Lake you hit the nail on the head. Talk to any old timers and ask them to tell you about their childhood. The basic needs have definitely changed and not for the better. It's nice to have the good things but their not a necessity the way folks now think. Back then there were brand new $2 sneaks and you felt lucky. Now the kids are killing for $200 sneaks. It just don't make any sense.


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## musketjim (Dec 7, 2011)

The concept of what constitutes basic needs has changed for people over the years, myself included, and it's hard to distinguish them from wants sometimes. I think now about the nice laptop I'm typing on and I cringe at the thot of going into my computer room and having to do anything in there. Or as an athlete I cringe at the thot of some of the protein powders and other supplements I took back in the 80's. My BOL helps me unplug a bit and get back to basics and while there I think how difficult it would be to live like that all the time. Just the firewood acquisition to survive would be mindboggling. Then throw in the need for food and it gives me a greater appreciation of the natives and men and women who settled Alaska before chainsaws and outboards or for that matter our whole nation. I think that's why some people don't think prepper, it's just to much to wrap their heads around.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

I am also boggled by ehat constitutes basic needs in our society. Just another example of how out of touch and spoiled we are in todays society. Food, water, secure inconspicuous shelter, and some way to cook and heat. Add ammo and a good rifle you should be able to survive the worst of it if you can remain unobtrusive enough in my opinion. I cant see complete anarchy ruling for more than a while. Die offs due to violence disease starvation will thin the crowd a good bit. Plus I cant prep for more than the first bit anyway so I hope it will be enough. Having a skill that makes you valuable in the rebuilding as folks start getting things back together will be key. Why Im going nursing school.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

The idea that civilization might not survive is a curious statement. It would be more accurate to suggest that most _people_ wouldn't survive. I imagine that a year after we have a post-SHTF America it will be a place with very low population density where people tend to avoid each other out of fear. Where every city then looks like Detroit does now. At least until the government regains control of the country.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

BillS said:


> The idea that civilization might not survive is a curious statement. It would be more accurate to suggest that most people wouldn't survive. I imagine that a year after we have a post-SHTF America it will be a place with very low population density where people tend to avoid each other out of fear. Where every city then looks like Detroit does now. At least until the government regains control of the country.


I hope to disagree... I can see the need for commerce, trade, healthcare, etc... I hope that a yr after we would at least start to see some sort of communities start back up... Small quaint flea market style areas... From there places that offer room and board would be next, etc.... With or without government assistance...


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

I avoid links with the word "outbrain" in them, so I just goolged: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral' and found it pretty easily. 

There are some good points in the article; it is food for thought.



Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'
Wednesday August 22, 2012 Terry Weiss

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC.

And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."

And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions.

Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.

However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.

"And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything.

Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries.

"What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.

Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered.

"Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated.

"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."

Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.

"For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.

"Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."

Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead.

According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way."

Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."

We can see the strain on society already.

In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.

Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.

Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics."

"If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable."

"People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald.


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