# How Far Do We Fall?



## machinist

I don't think there is much doubt in anybody's mind now that the US economy is in deep trouble, and there are many other problems facing us.

I am of the opinion that this is not going to get any better in the foreseeable future and we haven't hit bottom yet. So, where is the bottom? How far will the US economy and our society fall from its' present level before we at least stabilize, and hopefully begin to do better?

IMHO, it depends on many things, primarily:
-Fractional Reserve banking and the fate of fiat currencies.
-Future energy supplies.
-Food supplies.
-Competition for scarce and declining resources. 
-Government reactions to all of the above. 

We could conceivably put a lot of our remaining resources toward developing sustainable ways of living, but I don't see that happening on a broad scale because of the momentum of our society to live the way we are now. That means ever faster depletion of resources and less ability to recover in the future. 

So, how far down to we go? Will we look like Central American countries with a bare subsistence living for most people and a few rich ones? (Third world country status.)

Will it collapse far enough that the power grid fails? If so, how far back in time does THAT take us? 

I have thought about this for a long time and it is a DEEP rabbit hole to explore mentally. What is your vision of our future?

Languish more or less as we are?
Eventually recover to some degree?
Fall to 3rd world status and stay there?
Completey collapse in a grid-down catastrophe?


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## Busboy

We won't fall as low as the Third World countries. 

What we have, that they don't:

-An already established infrastructure. We have a great highway and rail system. The electrical grid and power generation systems. Water and sewer systems. Transportation and communication systems. So the bulk of the capital expenditures have already been made in this country, unlike theirs.

-A heritage of Freedom and Liberty. More and more we are seeing the American People reaching back to our Foundations to seek out the true definition of America, Freedom, and Liberty. Unlike most other countries, we know that dictatorial rule is wrong and will not easily embrace it.

-An expectation to be involved in the governing aspects of our country. Where as other countries will exclude their people, Americans expect to be part of the process.

-A built in division of power, as established under the state and federal Constitutions. Unlike other countries where their primary government structure is a central, all powerful government. Our system, as designed, breaks up the power, establishing it first on the local level, then through the states, to the federal (for very limited items). While not appropriately applied today, it is the root of our system, and will enable us to re-establish a functional governmental system in the even of a collapse.

-We are capitalistic by nature. There will be opportunities for people to make money by providing goods and services to their communities, thus there will be motivation for these goods and services to be re-established relatively quickly, in the event of a collapse. 

There is little doubt that hard times are ahead. We, as a country, have been living on credit for generations. Just as an individual much face the consequences of huge credit card and personal debt, we must too as a country. Just as an individual can appear to be living well, if they borrow to achieve that standard of living, they will eventually crash if they live beyond their means. 

But, say for instance this individual had paid off their car, well, they may lose their home, but they won't lose their car. So they will not be starting from scratch.

We have, in this country, more than ample energy supplies for our country's needs. We have more than enough food production capabilities for our country's needs. What we will likely lack, at first, is a replacement financial system to operate these. But once a replacement system is established (say a gold based currency, or the like), then production in both of these areas, and others will pick up to fill our needs.


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## tsrwivey

There will be some ups & downs but overall I think we will likely continue in a slow downward spiral with more of the middle class becoming poor & an overall decrease in the standard of living. There will be more displays of anger & bitterness both from the taxpayers & the nontaxpayers. Not only will we live in less financial security than we've experienced thus far but we will also live in a less safe society overall.


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## Moby76065

I see many that beat the doom and gloom drum in the prepper community. Not just on this site, but most sites. There is no doubt our country and indeed the world is in a decline that is manmade. The vast majority of our financial issues are spending far more than generated. Entitlements, union pensions, government spending etc are all part of the problems.

Everyone seems to almost hope for a train wreck. Many seem to salivate for it. 
I try to be more optimistic than pessimistic. Yes it is smart to prepare and be ready should things go south. But I seriously doubt we will see some total collapse preppers seem to stress over constantly. By prepping we are to some degree insulating ourselves from some of the terrible things doom and gloomer's predict. Becoming more self dependent is one of the things that protect us from much of decline that "could" occur.

But like Regan did, what IF a Romney/Ryan ticket did in fact turn things around a great deal. It's not like it's never happened before. Those older folks remember Carter and gas rationing. Regan in just a few years turned everything around. The Clinton administration took a crappy economy and ended up with a massive surplus.

As a corporation sales and marketing professional and now a small business owner I've learned over the years a negative attitude does not help with any situation. A positive outlook always makes things work better. In any economic climate some will thrive and most will not. More millionaires were made in the great depression than at any other time in history. I semi retired at the age of 46, my wife 36, with zero government assistance. I have lived the last 7 years with such a great life style it almost seems illegal. I'm not trying to blow my own horn, I just did what those far more successful than I suggested. The information is out there if you look for it. I got busy, worked my butt off doing what others did not do in the profession I was in. I made myself "different" from my competitors. This country, in my opinion, is still the greatest land for opportunity on the planet. In ANY economic climate (but especially bad one's) prosperity is not only possible, but likely for those that stop dwelling on problems and find solutions that others are willing to pay for. The makeup industry boomed during the great depression! A time when food lines and soup kitchens were how many ate, millionaires were made. Look how many are making money selling preps and prep equipment! How do you think the owner of Mountain House long term foods is doing?
I do not believe we will see TEOTWAWKI, just opportunities for those prepared and savvy.
My recommendation&#8230;&#8230;get savvy!! Do not think like the masses, think like the few that capitalize on opportunities. I plan on making a fortune when we come out of this down turn as America always does. The deeper the economic hole the more money to be made on the upswing. All economies are cyclical. I heard something once that changed my life. If you want to make a lot of money. Look at what everyone else is doing, and go the other way. It took a long time for me to figure out what that meant. But once I did, life got real good. You may not see opportunity like this again in your lifetime. When the nation is in a panic, provide solutions for profit. How do you think gun manufacturers and distributors are doing? 
Cause you can't control the tides of the ocean, but you can use them to your advantage.
*RIDE THE WAVE BABY!!!!! * 
Just my two cents.


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## bigpaul

i believe ALL western nations will fall to a level where we will all be subsistence farming and subsidising that by fishing, hunting and snaring. cities will be uninhabitable when all the systems collapse. i am not being a doom and gloomer, or having a negative outlook, much to the contrary i believe that i have a positive/optimistic outlook. i believe the human race has gone about as far as it can technology-wise, there are too many people on the planet and mother nature is fighting back hence all the natural disasters we are seeing on our TV screens. those that prepare will survive, the masses that dont-wont!


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## Magus

Mid 20th century depression era.if nobody hits us when we're down, we'll be back.


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## Bobbb

Moby76065 said:


> But like Regan did, what IF a Romney/Ryan ticket did in fact turn things around a great deal. It's not like it's never happened before.


Romney/Ryan could slow down the trainwreck that is coming, but they don't have any policy levers that are long enough to actually have enough influence to change our nation's economic slide into lower living standards. The factors that are leading us into decline are demographic, not policy related.



> The Clinton administration took a crappy economy and ended up with a massive surplus.


There was NO CLINTON SURPLUS. This is a great lie that is being propagated. There was a Social Security Surplus and Clinton borrowed from that income stream - borrowing is not surplus.

If there really were a Surplus, then year to year debt during the period of surplus would have declined, wouldn't it? What actually happened is that year to year debt for the US Federal Government increased every year of Clinton's presidency. You can't grow ever more indebted while simultaneously claiming that you're responsible for a surplus and that there will be future surpluses as far as the eye can see.

If you question my accuracy, just ask and I'll link you directly to US Treasury debt statistics for those years and you can see for yourself that the national debt increased every single year before, during, and after the fictional surplus years.


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## Moby76065

WEll, if all western society's do colapse and we become TEOTWAWJI I'ma warning ya ll now.
I am not going to be fully prepared or self relient. HOWEVER, I am armed to the teeth with massive amounts of ammunition. I have a sniper rifle set up to reach out and touch someone at 800 yards and it's become a new hobbie. I will get a night vision scope and wait for you to step out and when your guard down...BANG! And all your stuff is MY stuff.

All I can hope for is a more positive future. Because if not, there will be 10's of thousands just like I described above. And none of us can keep such a vigiant watch that we NEVER let our guard down. It's just not possible.


But I prefer to veiw things differently. LOL
I've seen Mad Max movies and just don't think we'll get there.
Just my opinion. I'm prayin yur wrong and I'm right.
Cuz if not....things are gonna suck.


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## machinist

Yep. Clinton borrowed the Social Security money. You might as well say he stole it, because the money is gone--spent many tmes over in deficit spending of monumental proportions--and it is not possible for the .gov to pay it back without devaluing the currency. So, it is GONE. Inflation/devaluation is the most hideous and insidious tax/theft ever devised, because very few catch on to what is happening. And it is a regressive tax, hitting thepoor the hardest since they have the least disposable income. 

Reagan didn't "fix" the economy, Paul Volcker did the dirty work and jacked interest rates outa sight, taking a "crack-up boom" down to recessionary levels. Without that, we would have had hyperinflation in short order. So, they kicked the can down the road a ways, spent money like it was going out of style (see Federal deficits for the Reagan years), and left the mess in OUR laps NOW. Not what I'd call a resounding success. 

They are all crooked, no matter how you dress 'em up. Like they say on Wall Street, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.

Present .gov obligations over the next few years are so far out of the realm of possibility as to be laughable. The true US debt as a % of GDP is worse than the European PIIGS. WHAT % of the US is on food stamps, and how many are unemployed/underemployed? Greece, here we come.


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## machinist

Quote: 
"If you want to make a lot of money. Look at what everyone else is doing, and go the other way."

Amen to that. It applies to the mob mentality of consumers, to investment market trends, to national monetary policy, and much more. Investors call it being a contrarian, some call it being an opportunist, and society calls it being a misfit. I've been called a lot worse things and lived over it. 

One famous investor said to "buy when there is blood in the streets", meaning that one should invest when public confidence, and thus asset prices, are lowest.

My Grandad flourished during GD 1.0 by converting his furniture shop to make caskets. People will need one, eventually. 

So, what counter-cyclical businesses will flourish when our economy fails even further? Look to basic needs: Food, water, shelter, clothing, fuel/energy, and if you can supply one of those and make money, you'll be okay. Another need is for self esteem (makeup, haircuts). When the consumers learn they can't afford new stuff, sell 'em used stuff, or get in the repair business. If they can't afford to buy a house, rent them a house or apartment. If they can't afford even a used car, sell 'em a scooter to get around town. 

But as to our individual circumstances, what level of preparedness makes sense to you, based on what you expect to happen?

Edit to add: The vices all do pretty well in a down economy. Alcohol, tobacco, gambling, et al.


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## BillS

I think we see hyperinflation, government at all levels going bankrupt, no electricity, no public water, no jobs, no goods being transported across the country. I think we're going to see mass starvation and mass murder/suicides. I think at least 90% of the US population will die in the year following the shutdown of the US power grids. The federal government will protect key personnel and provide for the military. The only other people to survive will be preppers, people living a self-sufficient lifestyle, and whatever criminals survived by preying on others. Unprepared people will probably live for awhile but they'll have a lot of serious challenges to their survival.

The collapse won't be permanent. I think it only lasts a year or two. The federal government can issue a new currency backed by gold and silver. They'll buy gold and silver with that currency. That will give the government money to operate again. Eventually they'll regain control of the country and we'll go to a new normal, whatever that is.

I also expect a one-world government to arise out of the chaos.


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## machinist

BillS,

That is pretty much what Dmitri Orlov said. Here's an article written about his ideas: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/04/03/716348/-Dmitry-Orlov-and-the-Prophesy-of-Doom

Quote:
"Just to sum up, he feels the US is in much worse shape and highly unlikely to recover anytime soon from what he saw at that time as its inevitable economic collapse.
The solution? As he sees it, there is nothing anyone can do to prevent it. The majority of systems in this country are geared toward providing profit to business at the expense of infrastructure, transportation, health, and agricultural stability. Politicians have nothing to gain by fixing the system. They feed off it and are rewarded not by making the sort of really hard decisions that have not even been considered yet, but by focusing on trivialities and irrelevancies.
In fact, he thought that any actions the government might attempt to prevent the collapse would only make it worse. 
Complete economic collapse of the sort he is envisioning would result in fuel shortages that would prevent farms from growing crops, trucks from delivering food to supermarkets nationwide, people from commuting to work or heating homes, power companies from generating electricity...
So what should we do? His surprising recommendation is that we as individuals should start hunkering down. We should do whatever it takes to remove ourselves to the margins of society and become accustomed to a low but sustainable standard of living. We should remove our money from financial institutions and put it into durable goods.
We should definitely grow our own food, as best we are able."


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## PopPop

The collapse that we are facing is economic in its foundation. The problem is compounded by the fragile nature of our interdepedance. Remember we are only three days or 9 meals from anarchy. Look around, how will your community deal with anarchy. For most communities it boils down to food and water. Your food and water are delivered to you from points all over the world and if that system has a hickup, carnage will follow and there is no local capacity to fill the void. Remember ours is a society that will riot over a Christmas toy.


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## Marcus

Moby76065 said:


> In any economic climate some will thrive and most will not. More millionaires were made in the great depression than at any other time in history.


I'd like to add that I had an uncle, who with his father, used the revenue they were receiving from oil & gas wells off their ranch to amass a huge amount of real estate during the Great Depression. Their holdings were measured in sections (640 acres or 1 square mile for the uninformed.)
Though they lived simply, their descendents would have to try very hard to do more than just live off the income from those holdings.



> This country, in my opinion, is still the greatest land for opportunity on the planet. In ANY economic climate (but especially bad one's) prosperity is not only possible, but likely for those that stop dwelling on problems and find solutions that others are willing to pay for.


In general, I agree as long as the Rule of Law holds. The idea of the US is a contract, a contract between its many different peoples that freedom is more important than anything else.



> My recommendation&#8230;&#8230;get savvy!! Do not think like the masses, think like the few that capitalize on opportunities. I plan on making a fortune when we come out of this down turn as America always does. The deeper the economic hole the more money to be made on the upswing. All economies are cyclical. I heard something once that changed my life. If you want to make a lot of money. Look at what everyone else is doing, and go the other way. It took a long time for me to figure out what that meant. But once I did, life got real good. You may not see opportunity like this again in your lifetime. When the nation is in a panic, provide solutions for profit. How do you think gun manufacturers and distributors are doing?
> Cause you can't control the tides of the ocean, but you can use them to your advantage.


I have used a similar strategy very successfully in my investments. I've always been somewhat partial to Baron von Rothschild famous quote about buying when there's blood in the streets.


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## lotsoflead

picture yourself in 1944 Stalingrad or 1945 Europe without America or anyone to ship you food.


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## partdeux

One of two things, we continue meandering along with absolutely no resolution to this massive deficit and spending issue for some undetermined amount of time... or absolute and total implosion.

WRT the massive infrastructure, how many electrical worker employees will show up for work, if they are not being paid? Water department? Grocery store employees? Secondly, we have created an environment where everybody is interdependent on everybody else. You lose one small section of skill set, a whole section of society will stop functioning. If in fact we see total implosion, I see a return to the late 1800's with massive die off of society.


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## Busboy

partdeux said:


> One of two things, we continue meandering along with absolutely no resolution to this massive deficit and spending issue for some undetermined amount of time... or absolute and total implosion.
> 
> WRT the massive infrastructure, how many electrical worker employees will show up for work, if they are not being paid? Water department? Grocery store employees? Secondly, we have created an environment where everybody is interdependent on everybody else. You lose one small section of skill set, a whole section of society will stop functioning. If in fact we see total implosion, I see a return to the late 1800's with massive die off of society.


This is the point of my post. The infrastructure is in place, we will simply need to utilize it. So in the case of the water companies, there will be a monetary motivation (even if it is not "cash") for someone to run the water company, to ensure water.

The society as a whole, eventually, will want a water system (as well as other systems, like food supplies, and even energy) and will find a way to pay for it. There will can not be a total elimination of "wealth" in this country, though a great reduction is very likely.

Your same electric worker, water worker, grocery store worker can't simply sit home and survive, so they will seek means to earn a living. The services they provide will be services desired by the people around them, thus they will have a "worth" associated with what they do. So they will go to work doing what they know how to do, and receive compensation for their services.

Granted, they will not likely get the same "pay check" they get today, but rather than getting nothing for sitting home starving, they will accept something for what they provide. Doctors may get paid in chickens and pigs. While not as good as hundreds of thousands of dollars, it is better than sitting home lamenting the lost pay check and starving. Same for most other workers.

Abandoned infrastructure will allow for startups to step in and operate various needed functions. It will take time, and there will be hardships, but it won't be as deep or permanent as "third world" countries.


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## Jezcruzen

How far will we fall?

If Romney is elected and he manages to make the corrections to slow, then stop this nose dive we are on, the Great Depression x2.

If Obumbo is re-elected, the Great Depression x10, culminating in the killing fields in the best Khmer Rouge tradition.

There is no magic bullet or easy way out. It will be one or the other.


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## BillS

partdeux said:


> WRT the massive infrastructure, how many electrical worker employees will show up for work, if they are not being paid?


The problem is that there won't any power generation. Once the dollar crashes and electric bills are $2,000 few people will be able to pay. The utilities will be forced to shut down.


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## bahramthered

I think we'll fall a lot farther and Romney and Ryan would be just the guys to make it happen. Both their budgets are all about letting the rich keep all their money and rip apart every social program that benefits the middle class, and both are hostile to investment in infrastructure and education. And the jobs Romney makes are in China more often than not. And they're both very interested in maintaining a huge military that does what for us domestically? 

I don't see the grid ever completely collapsing. Don't get me wrong I can see big pieces of it going down but I seriously doubt it'll ever be a majority of it. A couple huge problems would force even R+R team to invest and actually fix it. 

If we want to we could feed ourselves. Especially if a couple million gardens popped up, we lost a lot of Christmas tree fields, and stopped turning farms into housing. And that's before we even get into the new fields of LED based indoor grow houses.

If we ever got serious about grey energy, like nationally, we wouldn't need foreign energy for decades. Maybe by then Los Almos will have delivered a break through, like the fission research they're doing now. 


Overall I think this, if we want a bright future we have to build. I just keep seeing this additude that if goverment just goes away we'd thrive. But those people always seem to like the roads they drive on, expect someone to keep the lumber companies from taking their forests, and forget that in many places across this country critters where wiped out from unregulated hunting and fishing.


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## lotsoflead

don't put your money on Romney and Ryan, they are not for you or America, they're for the almighty dollar and their rich friends.

I don't know who Obama is for and I don't believe he does either.


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## DKRinAK

*Location, location, location.*

How far you will fall - I believe, is dependent on your location.

For example, if this is your sewer system









which goes to this









Where it winds up here









It ain't going to be much of a fall. Yes, these photos are from within the US.

I have given this much thought, and written several books looking at how it _could_ turn out.

I have trouble sleeping at night.

Do what you can now, while you can. If you live in a big North American city...well, good luck.


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## Moby76065

partdeux said:


> One of two things, we continue meandering along with absolutely no resolution to this massive deficit and spending issue for some undetermined amount of time... or absolute and total implosion.


Partner God Bless ya and I respect your opinion but why are there only two possibilities both of which are negative? Do people REALLY see no hope? WHAT IF&#8230;..things do get turned around? A third possibility.

Honestly....a lot of prepper types are just itchin to try out that bunker, or see everything collapse. Remember we have had presidents just wipe out the debt with the stroke of a pen. The equivalency of a nation filing for bankruptcy. Now no one wants to see that and people will say China will stop selling to us and we'll collapse and whatever. BUT THEY CAN'T.

Because we are the most vibrant economy in the world by far we buy more STUFF than anyone else. A lot of it is China Mart. THEY HAVE TO KEEP SELLING TO US!

Our problem is we find problems as a citizenry rather than solutions. We need to flush the government, handcuff the crap out of them, and return to individualism. Ask not what your country can do your you. But what can you do for your country. And yourself.

The United States is not going to collapse. The infrastructure won't either. Nor will the UN come rolling over the hills to take your guns. People will thrive and more will not. It's been this way for 235+ years. Even during the great depression we rose from the mess.

:gaah::gaah:


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## lotsoflead

Moby76065 said:


> Partner God Bless ya and I respect your opinion but why are there only two possibilities both of which are negative? Do people REALLY see no hope? *WHAT IF&#8230;..things do get turned around? A third possibility.
> *
> 
> The United States is not going to collapse. The infrastructure won't either. Nor will the UN come rolling over the hills to take your guns. People will thrive and more will not. It's been this way for 235+ years. Even during the great depression we rose from the mess.
> 
> :gaah::gaah:


if things ever get turned around in this country or the world, no one on this board will be around to know it.It will take about fifty yrs. when a country keeps printing funny money, spends 4 billion dollars a yr and takes in just 2 billion, they have to fall. there is no comparison between today and the great depression days, back then people were hard workers,loyal, most were honest and stuck together.


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## Tweto

Moby76065 said:


> Partner God Bless ya and I respect your opinion but why are there only two possibilities both of which are negative? Do people REALLY see no hope? WHAT IF&#8230;..things do get turned around? A third possibility.
> 
> Honestly....a lot of prepper types are just itchin to try out that bunker, or see everything collapse. Remember we have had presidents just wipe out the debt with the stroke of a pen. The equivalency of a nation filing for bankruptcy. Now no one wants to see that and people will say China will stop selling to us and we'll collapse and whatever. BUT THEY CAN'T.
> 
> Because we are the most vibrant economy in the world by far we buy more STUFF than anyone else. A lot of it is China Mart. THEY HAVE TO KEEP SELLING TO US!
> 
> Our problem is we find problems as a citizenry rather than solutions. We need to flush the government, handcuff the crap out of them, and return to individualism. Ask not what your country can do your you. But what can you do for your country. And yourself.
> 
> The United States is not going to collapse. The infrastructure won't either. Nor will the UN come rolling over the hills to take your guns. People will thrive and more will not. It's been this way for 235+ years. Even during the great depression we rose from the mess.
> 
> :gaah::gaah:


I really hope your right!!! I have read several posts saying that they suspect that everybody on this forum is hoping for a collapse of some kind. Any clear thinking person would not want a collapse, a solution to the financial situation would be very welcomed.

Now to get serious, I'm from and engineering back ground and the only way I can look at any issue is with analytic detail. When I run the numbers all I get is bad. The best that I see is to maintain the economy the way it is for a few years, but eventually we will have hyperinflation, or some other perverted form of financial turmoil, and none of it is good for the common man. If the treasury rates normalize (and they always have) then all bets are off.

Moby, show me in numbers how we get out of this and I will be a happy camper. Wishful positive thinking only gets us so far.

BTW, we are only talking about a financial collapse if anything else happens, like a major terrorist attack all bets are also off.


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## machinist

Right on, Tweto!

I would dearly LOVE for the US to be able to muddle through the mess we are in. But I don't see it happening without a major collapse first. 

We have a big portion of the country on the government dole, unwillingly partially paid for by those who work, with the balance being paid with funny Munny, printed fresh each month. That which cannot go on forever, won't. 

Yeah, there are many ways for this situation to go from here. I don't see the FSA (Free Stuff Army) giving up their welfare benefits for the good of the country, and I don't see the politicos stopping all the doles to all those registered voters, either. I don't see the bankers becoming benevolent, the politicians making hard choices to do the right things, nor individuals en masse starting gardens in their McMansion yards.

Without present day farming methods, a lot of folks in this and other countries would go hungry. Think, yields down by 80% if they can't get fertilizer, hybrid seeds, chemicals, and that is AFTER you figure out how to get those farms away from the bankers who repoed them. The drought will cause some of that this year. I've been told that it takes the first 100 bushels of corn per acre to pay the expenses for raising it. Most corn in Indiana, and a lot of it in Iowa and Illinois won't make 100 bushels per acre this year, compared to the 165 that is the average for Indiana. Farming is a BUSINESS, not a charity operation. If it doesn't make money, it goes belly up. 40% of the corn crop goes to make ethanol to put in your gas tank. I've read that we will be about 40% down on corn yields this year. Go figure how that works out. Wonder what will happen to the price of tortillas in Mexico? Other countries may not get their allotted share of grain this year, so the US can fill their gas tanks. I'm sure they'll be happy about that. 

Add the food problem to the economic and finance problems, the national debt, LIEBOR mess, and other banking fiascoes. Toss in some worthless sovreign bonds from Greece, Spain, etc., and see how this works out. Germany can't rescue all of Europe, Japan is on life support and China's outlook gets worse every day. Nobody out there to help the US even if we had NOT made them all mad at us. 

This will not end well.


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## mosquitomountainman

The ethanol garbage is "feel good" only. We spend more to produce/subsidize it than we get from it. One of the best things we could do is drop it but the greenies won't stand for that.

I lived in a town once where they "recycled" newspapers ... until the grant ran out. It wasn't economically viable so the government paid them to d it.

:gaah:


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## hiwall

I don't see a way out. There is just too much debt(mostly bad debt). Most every country is way in debt. And that debt is held by other countries that themselves are way in debt. The banks hold a huge amount of worthless debt. Some one tell me how the whole world can get out from under all that debt. Plus every day all go deeper into debt. The most drastic plan proposed in the USA is the dreaded Paul Ryan plan and that only slightly slows down adding to the debt! Its hopeless. The only question is how long can all the politicians in the world put it off? And which country will collapse first.


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## BillM

*Let's Compare*



Moby76065 said:


> Partner God Bless ya and I respect your opinion but why are there only two possibilities both of which are negative? Do people REALLY see no hope? WHAT IF&#8230;..things do get turned around? A third possibility.
> 
> Honestly....a lot of prepper types are just itchin to try out that bunker, or see everything collapse. Remember we have had presidents just wipe out the debt with the stroke of a pen. The equivalency of a nation filing for bankruptcy. Now no one wants to see that and people will say China will stop selling to us and we'll collapse and whatever. BUT THEY CAN'T.
> 
> Because we are the most vibrant economy in the world by far we buy more STUFF than anyone else. A lot of it is China Mart. THEY HAVE TO KEEP SELLING TO US!
> 
> Our problem is we find problems as a citizenry rather than solutions. We need to flush the government, handcuff the crap out of them, and return to individualism. Ask not what your country can do your you. But what can you do for your country. And yourself.
> 
> The United States is not going to collapse. The infrastructure won't either. Nor will the UN come rolling over the hills to take your guns. People will thrive and more will not. It's been this way for 235+ years. Even during the great depression we rose from the mess.
> 
> :gaah::gaah:


The great depression occured in 1929.

The World population in 1929 was two billion people.

The current world population is seven billion people.

In 1929 ,83 % of the U S population worked in agriculture.

Today , two precent of the population grow every thing for the other 98 precent of us.

In 1929, it was the norm for an average famiely to have a years supply of food on hand .

The norm today for the average famiely is three days supply of food.

In 1929, most people grew all or some of their own food and had chickens and / or live stock.

Today the average American doesn't have a clue as to how to grow anything.

We have become a helpless nation with one third of our population drawing government assistance. That dosen't count Soc Security !

The U S debt is now so large that if the government paid everything they took in in taxes on it , it wouldn't even pay the intrest on our debt.

The U S government is "Bankrupt" we just haven't been forclosed on yet but it is coming.

That my friend is reality !

I don't want anything in my current lifestyle to change but it will soon change.


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## ContinualHarvest

I just hope the fall doesn't happen until after I finish my degree. Post SHTF I think the training in biology and ecology will come in handy. Will be working with various plants and animals


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## Moby76065

Tweto said:


> Moby, show me in numbers how we get out of this and I will be a happy camper. Wishful positive thinking only gets us so far.
> 
> BTW, we are only talking about a financial collapse if anything else happens, like a major terrorist attack all bets are also off.


I wish I could. Cuz if some one these boards are right and I'm wrong there is gonna be a world of hurt. MILLIONS dying. Really? Ya'll think that's what will REALLY happen? Mad MAX???? One thing is for sure. Dwelling on doom and destruction never solves problems. But if this nation does fall folks have little idea of just how ugly things will get.

What happens when a city gets over it's head in debt?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...est-us-city-in-history-to-declare-bankruptcy/

Now I do not know the consequences of a national Bankruptcy, but really, if Americans are not burdened with massive taxes we make stuff and buy stuff. And someone will sell it to us. There is more than one way out of all of this. This is just an artical I saw.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Colum...rica-Should-Declare-Bankruptcy-Now.aspx#page1

The point is, MAD MAX like senerio's just will not happen. Or at least I don't believe so. Just my humble opinion.


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## partdeux

Moby76065 said:


> The point is, MAD MAX like senerio's just will not happen. Or at least I don't believe so. Just my humble opinion.


Somebody mention stockton?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/18/stockton-poor-poverty-crime-california_n_1346096.html

Look at what happened in Bosnia, and that was with UN and more importantly the United States coming to their rescue.

How many people will go to work if they are no longer paid any money? Have you seen the violence that is slowly creeping into lower income areas? Hungry people with no money get desperate, I know I would. Many municalities are having financial difficulties meeting pension obligations. What happens if you have a whole bunch of people that lose their pension. Isolated examples can be covered by the larger mass. But, at some point, you reach the tipping point, then what?

The United States has obligations of somewhere between 125 TRILLION and 175 TRILLION Dollars. They have promises out for that much money. The entire US GDP is only 15-16 Trillion. We owe way beyond what can ever be paid back. I hope there are some smarter people out there that can figure this out, but cutting spending will cause other unintended consequences, continue with the spending will cause issues. It's an exponential nightmare.


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## Bobbb

Moby76065 said:


> The point is, MAD MAX like senerio's just will not happen. Or at least I don't believe so. Just my humble opinion.


Refresh your memory on the events which lead the Great Nations into WWI. As you go through the chronological events pay attention to how each decision maker thought he was making the most rational decision available to him at the time. The outcome of all these state actors making "rational" decisions was disaster.

My point is that the same rational decisionmaking in present day is likely to lead us to future disaster. Here's a taste:

American ethanol production is encouraged because it supports our farmers and it reduces our current account deficit. We can argue ideology, but these are two tangible benefits. The problem is that this removes corn from the food cycle and thus creates scarcity and this ripples down to increased food costs. These increased food costs take more money out of our food budgets but most people in the West can cope because food budgets are very small in most households compared to other costs. However food budgets in the Third World take up a much larger share of the family budget, so these food price increases are going to actually result in food shortages for a good number of people. Their leaders will, and already are, calling for the American government to stop ethanol production but how exactly is it in American interests to harm domestic activities in order to reduce the strain on food budgets for people in Egypt?

Now you have people starving due to being unable to buy food. People don't usually accept such a fate meekly. Now people are pissed off. When people are pissed off then tend to strike out and the strike doesn't have to be immediately directed at America but when some disruptive action does take place it will start it's own ripple effect and eventually that tide will wash up on the shores of America. All we need is for the Saudi regime to fall, for terrorists to knock out their oil production facilities for a year or two, and now we've gone from ethanol production to worldwide oil shortage and the devastation that ensues. Granted, the consequences here are simply conjecture but no one back in 1917 would have believed you if you said that 37 million people were going to die because Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, so when worldwide systems don't have sufficient slack in them to absorb shocks, then all sorts of crazy things can happen and, at present, our systems don't have the slack to absorb the types of shocks that look increasingly likely to occur.


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## Marcus

For those with little or no economic knowledge, I suggest reading Paul Zane Pilser. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Zane_Pilzer


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## BillS

Moby76065 said:


> I wish I could. Cuz if some one these boards are right and I'm wrong there is gonna be a world of hurt. MILLIONS dying. Really? Ya'll think that's what will REALLY happen? Mad MAX???? One thing is for sure. Dwelling on doom and destruction never solves problems. But if this nation does fall folks have little idea of just how ugly things will get.


Yes, it looks like a Mad Max scenario. That's not doom and gloom. It's being realistic. The Fed creates billions of new dollars every month so the government can spend it. Doing that always leads to hyperinflation eventually. If this was 100 years ago and most people lived on the farm and burned wood it wouldn't be so bad. Now only 2% of the population is made up of farmers. The vast majority of the population is dependent on electricity for heat. It's going to be a complete and total disaster. I think it's hard for people to fully grasp how bad it will be. That's why so many people are in denial about what's happening out there.


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## Moby76065

So GypsySue and MMM, ya got room fur an ol Cowboy and family?
I'm a good shot.

I'ma gonna start buildin me a MAD MAX car!!!


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## mosquitomountainman

A. You're going to need something with more ground clearance than that to make it up our road.

B. You'd best be here early. I know some outlying groups that plan to close all major roads (all two of them) almost immediately if things fall apart. Unless you're a local you'll never find your way through the back roads. 

C. Bring food, firearms, ammo, tools, camping gear, and a good attitude. If you come empty handed it best be because you had to walk.

D. Be ready to bust your gluteous maximus. No one stays for free. No one shirks their duty.

These are the same rules our kids have. They've all been warned and given the opportunity to store supplies here. I'm not saying that they wouldn't be allowed in but if they were too stupid to not prepare after all the warnings they've been given I'm not taking food from those who did to feed those who didn't. Lack of money is no excuse. If they got serious and cut some of their frivolous expenses they'd have plenty left for prepping. This ain't no commune or welfare society.


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## JayJay

BillM..nice to hear from you.
All you typed is what every citizen needs to understand..this calamity coming will be 10 times worse because of what you stated.


Lord help us.

~~~MILLIONS dying. Really?~~~
Moby; the very first thing I think of in terms of financial collapse is farming and the need for oil/gasoline/diesel;not EVEN considering all parts, seeds, fertilizers, etc..... without these things, there will be NO farming--face that.
Every American isn't stocked with 5 years of food; face that.


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## Moby76065

mosquitomountainman said:


> A. You're going to need something with more ground clearance than that to make it up our road.


I was just kidding MMM, I'm former Coast Guard, our motto, Semper Partaus, ALWAYS READY!

While I don't believe the Doom & Gloom is coming as described by some, that doesn't mean I'm not preparing for it. My long term BOL is in Kansas, 380 acres with 3 spring fed lakes full of fish, plenty of timber and farmable land. I got 5 times the area of Disneyland. In a SHTF situation it may not be the happiest place on earth, but I'll see them coming a long time before they'll see the flash. But I agree with yur work ethics. I'll just have to rustle some cattle along the way.


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## mosquitomountainman

Moby76065 said:


> I was just kidding MMM, I'm former Coast Guard, our motto, Semper Partaus, ALWAYS READY!
> 
> While I don't believe the Doom & Gloom is coming as described by some, that doesn't mean I'm not preparing for it. My long term BOL is in Kansas, 380 acres with 3 spring fed lakes full of fish, plenty of timber and farmable land. I got 5 times the area of Disneyland. In a SHTF situation it may not be the happiest place on earth, but I'll see them coming a long time before they'll see the flash. But I agree with yur work ethics. I'll just have to rustle some cattle along the way.


I assumed some "tongue-in-cheek" in your post. (Especially with picture of the car!) Seriously though, if you're in the area and things fall apart, come on over. We'll make room for you.

Kansas would be a good place for a BOL/Retreat. The climate is good for growing food and the people (at least in the rural areas) are still pretty decent. I grew up in Emporia, KS. and had relatives who farmed there. It wasn't all that flat where I grew up though (a lot of people think KS is flat and treeless), and we had lots of trees, great hunting and fishing. It's sure cold in winter and hot in summer though and my allergies keep me out of there most of the year. I still have lots of relatives in Greenwood, Coffey and Lyon counties.


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## Moby76065

mosquitomountainman said:


> I assumed some "tongue-in-cheek" in your post. (Especially with picture of the car!) Seriously though, if you're in the area and things fall apart, come on over. We'll make room for you.


Good to know sir, likewise. I don't like the flat land of the midwest so much. But, it's the spot I got to run to. It's in Cherokee county. The biggest issue is it's distance. It's a good 8 hours without a crisis. Problaby 2 days in a SHTF senerio. That's my biggest concern. My buddy has a few arces south of me for a more local (30 miles) BOL. Again off the beaten path. But like I've said, I worry more about a terrorist issue than anything else.


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## mosquitomountainman

I do believe the economy is headed for the chasm. I don't believe there'll be anything done to stop it no matter who is president. I believe Obama will get us there faster than greased lighting due to his partisan focus. He has splintered this country more than any president we've ever had and he is a socialist. 

The president, no matter who it ends up being, will not be able to stop the slide. The people of the US that have been feeding from the public trough are just to dependant and most of the population is only out to get what they can with someone else footing the bill. 

In case no one has noticed, Obammo's re-election focus is to appeal to the fringe groups like the illegal aliens (Mexicans), the homosexuals, the blacks, and any other fringe group/minority that will give him those few extra votes he needs to take the election. It isn't about personal responsibility or a "new" Washington. It's about special deals for special groups. There is no one who's running for the hard working Americans being forced to support the deadbeats.

I don't believe the economy failing will result in a Mad Max world. It will, however, usher in WW3 and/or some equally unpleasant events. 

Even if there's no WW3, I expect a race war of some degree in the US. The country is too fractured along racial lines. The US is no longer a "melting pot." It's more like a salad bar with many different people all trying to maintain autonomy. We're rubbing shoulders together but each group sees themselves as individuals first, Americans second. It's tribalism. Look at the other countries where tribalism reigns (the Mid-East, Russia, Africa), and you'll see where that leads. It's not pretty.

In short, I don't believe the economy can be fixed and with the temper of those living in the US I expect economic failure to trigger widespread destruction rather than pulling together to act for the good of everyone. 

I hope I'm wrong.


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## Viking

mosquitomountainman is sadly right, I'm coming on to being 70 years on this planet and my wife and I have been studying the economy for the past 12+ years and world problems for many more and have come to the conclusion that the Republic, as our founding fathers envisioned it, has nearly been destroyed and is now fitting of the Democracy label politicians seem to always claim this country is. The incremental gnawing away of freedoms in the past has given way to a full throttle push to going over the cliff since Obama has been in office. A fresh new face in office will not stop the inertia. My concern is that this country may never return to what had been designed by the founding fathers as the freest nation on the planet. Our children and grandchildren may well become enslaved without a leadership that understands what the Constitution and Bill of Rights has done for "We The People". Though the collapse may not come in my lifetime I sorrow for those who will live through what may be ahead. To give up all that those who have fought and died for in upholding this great Republic is a horrible sin in my mind and though my wife and I are but two seemingly insignificant people we strive to do what we can to educate those around us as to what can be done, whether it makes a difference or not it's our burden because of what we know.


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## invision

Viking - nicely said.. I am new here and to prepping. All I can say if I ran my business like our elected officials run our country, I wouldn't have a business to run. That is what scares me the most. My background is in network engineering, disaster recovery, and executive management. My clients are in finance, so when I overhear heavy hitting stock analysis guys talking about prepping, I am smart enough to realize that I should look into this too. I personally can't see a way out of having to hit the big red reset button.


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## Busboy

mosquitomountainman said:


> I do believe the economy is headed for the chasm. I don't believe there'll be anything done to stop it no matter who is president. I believe Obama will get us there faster than greased lighting due to his partisan focus. He has splintered this country more than any president we've ever had and he is a socialist. Obowma is more than a "socialist", he is more from the cloth of a fascist. His goal is dictatorial control and all inclusive power, as evidenced by his conduct over the last @4 years.
> 
> The president, no matter who it ends up being, will not be able to stop the slide. The people of the US that have been feeding from the public trough are just to dependant and most of the population is only out to get what they can with someone else footing the bill. Agreed. The President, and/or the federal government, is incapable of "fixing" our problems, but the People are not. I will link a site/information below of where the People are making positive changes, within their states, which will allow the People to make significant chances on the federal level.
> 
> In case no one has noticed, Obammo's re-election focus is to appeal to the fringe groups like the illegal aliens (Mexicans), the homosexuals, the blacks, and any other fringe group/minority that will give him those few extra votes he needs to take the election. It isn't about personal responsibility or a "new" Washington. It's about special deals for special groups. There is no one who's running for the hard working Americans being forced to support the deadbeats. But, the hard working Americans are fighting for themselves, and are starting to leverage their state governments against the intrusive federal government, to put an end to this sort of system you describe.
> 
> I don't believe the economy failing will result in a Mad Max world. It will, however, usher in WW3 and/or some equally unpleasant events. Unfortunately, I agree with your sentiment here. The only way for the US to get out of the financial situation we are in today is via default. We will either openly default, and refuse to pay our debts to the foreign countries, or inflation default. Either way, some countries, especially China, will see this as an act of war. I don't think they will attack us directly, but will make moves on Taiwan, and other areas of the world. They need to do that anyway for resources. Without a financial system to buy what they want/need, and with no strong US military to deter them from taking what they need, they will resort to force.
> 
> Even if there's no WW3, I expect a race war of some degree in the US. The country is too fractured along racial lines. The US is no longer a "melting pot." It's more like a salad bar with many different people all trying to maintain autonomy. We're rubbing shoulders together but each group sees themselves as individuals first, Americans second. It's tribalism. Look at the other countries where tribalism reigns (the Mid-East, Russia, Africa), and you'll see where that leads. It's not pretty. Again, I agree. We will see riots come Nov 7th, regardless of the election outcome. It will be like the NBA playoffs. _ "If our team loses, we riot. If our team wins, we riot." _ Then, of course, when we see economic troubles, the cities can not sustain themselves, thus we will see the social-economically challenged try to use force to take what they want/need. Indeed, gangs will very quickly make any large city unlivable and a war zone. Much as they do in third world countries.
> 
> In short, I don't believe the economy can be fixed and with the temper of those living in the US I expect economic failure to trigger widespread destruction rather than pulling together to act for the good of everyone.
> 
> I hope I'm wrong.


Now for a little positive stuff.

The American Spirit is alive and well in America, but our good friends in the mainstream media, and the federal government, are not going to let us know about it.

One place to see it at work, and being successful, is the Tenth Amendment Center. http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/

I particularly like the Legislative Tracking area: http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/the-10th-amendment-movement/ Here they follow about 16 different state level legislative efforts to fight federal government usurpation of powers. There are more areas being worked, so this is not an all inclusive list of efforts by any means.

In particular, note that nearly every state has some sort of beef with the federal government's intrusion upon the People of their state. http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/nullification/10th-amendment-bills/ And this one: http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/nullification/health-care/ Each bill which is passed in these states, and to some degree, each bill which is even introduced, is an indication that the People are supporting this effort.

This is key, as the solutions to fix this country MUST come from the People directly. This is the process the Founders envisioned for the operation of our country. Each "bubble" on the legislative tracking maps is an indication that the hearts and minds of the People are working to return this country back to a Constitutional Republic, not the mess we have today.

The point of all of this, in reference to the topic on this thread, is that there is a growing majority of People in this country who understand that where we are today, as a country, is not right. They understand that we must return to the Founding Principles to again become prosperous. And they are taking up the tasks required to restore those Founding Principles.

It can not happen from the federal level, but rather much come from the People, through their states, as envisioned by the Constitution.

When you look at states eyeing legislation to restore gold/silver as legal tender, you can see the People of those states trying to pre-establish a system of commerce to allow them to still function when the US Federal Reserve dollar system tanks. http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/nullification/constitutional-tender/ Then, couple this with the bills which will allow the state governments to restrict the ability of the federal government to tax the People of their states, for unConstitutional activities, and you have the foundations of a system which can dismantle the out of control spending and welfare out of D.C.: http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/nullification/federal-tax-funds-act/

On top of all of this, much of our current "recession" is the direct cause of the federal government restricting expansion and access to natural resources, and artificially manipulating the market forces. The states are working to toss off these artificial shackles to commerce and wealth building. 
http://tenthamendmentcenter.com/nullification/cap-and-trade/

North Dakota is a great example of what is possible if the federal government is taken out of the economic equation. Other states are taking note of the fact that N.D. has less than 4% unemployment, and more tax revenue than they know what to do with.

If you consider that many states have tremendous resources sitting idle, untouched due to federal restrictions, it does not take too much imagination to see they will eventually want to tap those resources for their own good.

The process of going through hard times will only foster the desire of the People to find real solutions. The question will be, will they seek Constitutional solutions, or will they bow to D.C. for dictatorial solutions? Based on the current trend in this country, I don't see the masses bowing to D.C. The "approval ratings" of the federal government has been hovering at all time lows for a very long time, and people are really beginning to understand that the cause of our problems are coming from D.C., not getting fixed there.

Tough times for 6 months or so, really tough times. Then, a slow transition back to the Constitutional foundation of this country, with the People working through their state governments to re-establish a prosperous country, or at least regions within this country. This is what I think will likely happen. Sorry, no large scale "Mad Max", though little doubt the cities will be a war zone.

There will be many deaths. Look around you, how many people are alive today who would not have been alive 50 years ago, solely due to technology and intensive medical support? Most of those folks will perish in the first 90 days. Also, look at all those people who would be dead, due to their decision making process, but because we live in a civilized society, they are not. Just imagine the number of idiots who will get killed when they do something stupid to the wrong/right person. With no prospect of the rule of law, people will ban together to implement the rule of law. Now the drug dealers, thieves, rapists, etc., will be dealt with in a very harsh and permanent manner, rather than via the liberal and easy going court/legal system.


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## TheLazyL

mosquitomountainman said:


> ...The people of the US that have been feeding from the public trough are just to dependant and most of the population is only out to get what they can with someone else footing the bill. ....


And those that "feeding from the public trough" can no longer be fed, they will turn on everyone else and finally themselves..


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## cengasser

The only way I see out of this is to hit Rock bottom and rise again. No, I don't want or wish it would happen. But history and economics 101 teaches us we can't spend more then we take in... Simple.
Now, 3rd world status, not sure I buy into that. But the sheeple in this country wouldn't know what do if McDonald's closed... They're clueless, this will bring riots and upheaval. How will they eat?
It unavoidable, it's to late to fix it; without going thru LOTS of pain. Many of which are not capable of doing in our great nation! We've become soft, takers not doers. Even kids out of college think we OWE them a 6 figure job. They don't want to repair infrastructure, those jobs are "below" them!
Just my HO


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## Bobbb

cengasser said:


> The only way I see out of this is to hit Rock bottom and rise again.


I could buy into an oscillation dynamic - we see that all the time in many different aspects of life. The question here is to rise again to which level? When you're at rock bottom then there is no way but up, so if today we find ourselves at 60% above rock bottom on some manufactured scale used to measure these issues, and in the future we hit rock bottom, 0 on the scale, then things will be better for us when we get to 20% but we'd still be worse off than we are today, on our downward slide.

That though is not what I believe you are implying and if you are implying that we'll once again achieve greatness as we once did in the early decades of the 20th century, then I disagree. Liberals have screwed us permanently and left us with no way to achieve our lost greatness. Decline is baked into the cake.



> Now, 3rd world status, not sure I buy into that.


Check out the state Demographer of Texas:

By 2030, 16 percent to 20 percent of the population will be 65 or older, an increase of about 10 percent over 2000. Most will be Anglos. Of Texans older than 65 in 2000, 72.6 percent were Anglo, 16.7 percent Hispanic.

The aging population -- coupled with a segment that is less educated and, thus, earning less money -- will strain social services, including those for the elderly. . . . . . . . .

"This is really a wake-up call," he said. "The conclusion is that by the year 2025,* if we keep doing what we're doing now, Texas will have the economy of a Third Word country.* I have a son who will be 21 in 2025, and that's just not the kind of Texas I want to turn over to him."​
Where did, and where does, our national wealth come from? From our system of government? Heck, Liberia basically took the US Constitution, erased the word "United States" and scribbled in "Liberia" and had themselves a ready made system of governance. Are the US and Liberia equal in terms of outcomes?

The wealth we created arose from peoples and their cultures. When we import 3rd world natives, we're importing a different people, and they bring with them their culture. If those people and their culture couldn't develop their countries to be successful, what has changed for them in the US? They're simply being governed by a new form of government. Liberia had the same form of government as the US and look at how they turned out.

The only thing that is masking our slide is the dilution effect - high achievers mixed with low achievers equals a statistical average of "things are not as bad as we fear." Now change the ratio of high to low by decreasing the number of high earners and increasing the number of low earners and see what happens.

If you take 3rd world people and their culture and find that they have a higher growth rate in your society than your American's coming from families who had earlier made America great, then let the ratio between the two groups grow ever more lopsided and you'll see America turning into a third world country - all it takes is time and causal dynamics remaining constant over that time.


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## machinist

Bobbb,

It doesn't help that the jobs exported are the higher paying ones and the jobs "being created" are low paying/part time. Add that to the demographics, along with a destroyed currency and you have a recipe for disaster.


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## Bobbb

machinist said:


> Bobbb,
> 
> It doesn't help that the jobs exported are the higher paying ones and the jobs "being created" are low paying/part time. Add that to the demographics, along with a destroyed currency and you have a recipe for disaster.


Agree.

What you describe is compounded by liberal idiocy with respect to social welfare spending with businessman exploiters tagging along, or egging them on so that they can privatize gains and socialize the losses.

Here we live in one of the world's most advanced economies where the cost of living is pretty high. Take commercial farming and their need for stoop labor. There are plenty of farm tasks that can be mechanized - it simply takes capital. Rather than spending the capital these folks cajole government to allow the importation of stoop labor because it's cheaper to pay someone to pick tomatoes than it is to invest in a machine to do the same work. The problem here is that the farmer gets the benefit of paying less for the labor and society gets stuck with paying to educate the stoop laborer's kids, provide for their health care, and so on down the line.

In a high cost of living society it takes $X amount in annual income to pay sufficient taxes in order to balance a typical person's use of government services. Everyone who earns less than $X is taking more from society than they contribute. When this happens with respect to American citizens, it's mostly unavoidable - these folks can't earn enough and you can't kick them out of America. However, there is NO reason to be importing more people who can't pay their own way.

Bleeding heart liberals + businessmen looking to offloads costs onto society in order to boost their own profit = societal decline.

Now about the high wage jobs - all of that subsidization of people who take more from society than they contribute has to be funded by those who contribute more than they take. This taxing pushes up the cost of hiring the high skilled workers and thus lowers their productivity per dollar spent and thus makes offshoring more attractive.


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## Immolatus

"The point of all of this, in reference to the topic on this thread, is that there is a growing majority of People in this country who understand that where we are today, as a country, is not right. They understand that we must return to the Founding Principles to again become prosperous. And they are taking up the tasks required to restore those Founding Principles."

I only wish this was true. I think the number of people 'waking up' is growing, but not fast enough. There are many who still believe in the Red/Blue idea. Most on ZH get it (to the point that anyone who brings it up gets ridiculed), and obviously the referenced 10th center guys get it. Someone on this forum even said to me "Thats the most ignorant thing I have ever heard" after I had said there is no difference between the two parties.
I'll try to stop before I get this more political.

As to how far can we fall, it will be a relative question. Since we are closer to the top than the bottom in the world, just be happy that youre here and not in the 3rd world, but I would have to say that its more likely that those in the 3rd world are more self sufficient than most because they have to be. Its impossible for most to even imagine what its like.
If were talking about a worldwide financial collapse, I dont think that once all is said and done we will be all that much worse off. Without getting into the assumed fact that the rich (say what you will about class warfare, the facts are the facts) will end up with an even bigger slice of the pie than they already have. 
Wait, I guess I should explain. When it all crashes, those with money will swoop in and buy up more of the resources, in practical terms homes (land) and water (first randomly searched site with anything to say about it). Most brush off the water thing, but this will be an issue in the future, witness the guy going to jail for collecting runoff...
Ok, enough of that.
Wehn its all said and done, then our lives should go back to somewhat normal. Now how long that would take is anyones guess. It could be years, it could be a generation or more. This is not to say that it wouldnt get extremely ugly in the meantime, but barring some catastrophe (war/nukes/meltdowns/natural disasters etc) this is my opinion.
We will crash hard, and it will be nasty as those who are unable/unprepared/unwilling to 'roll for self' will get completely screwed, and as the ptb get equally nasty trying to hang on to their power and wealth (and they can get much nastier than the peasants), things will eventually get back to normal in a general sense.
The US will no longer be the top of the food chain. Its anyones guess who would be, but my first guess would be Russia. It will be whoever plays it the smartest, and Im pretty sure it wont be us. 
It will get unbelievably bad, but after some period it would get back to 'normal' again.
We shall see.


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## cengasser

Bobbb said:


> I could buy into an oscillation dynamic - we see that all the time in many different aspects of life. The question here is to rise again to which level? When you're at rock bottom then there is no way but up, so if today we find ourselves at 60% above rock bottom on some manufactured scale used to measure these issues, and in the future we hit rock bottom, 0 on the scale, then things will be better for us when we get to 20% but we'd still be worse off than we are today, on our downward slide.
> 
> That though is not what I believe you are implying and if you are implying that we'll once again achieve greatness as we once did in the early decades of the 20th century, then I disagree. Liberals have screwed us permanently and left us with no way to achieve our lost greatness. Decline is baked into the cake.
> 
> Check out the state Demographer of Texas:
> 
> By 2030, 16 percent to 20 percent of the population will be 65 or older, an increase of about 10 percent over 2000. Most will be Anglos. Of Texans older than 65 in 2000, 72.6 percent were Anglo, 16.7 percent Hispanic.
> 
> The aging population -- coupled with a segment that is less educated and, thus, earning less money -- will strain social services, including those for the elderly. . . . . . . . .
> 
> "This is really a wake-up call," he said. "The conclusion is that by the year 2025, if we keep doing what we're doing now, Texas will have the economy of a Third Word country. I have a son who will be 21 in 2025, and that's just not the kind of Texas I want to turn over to him."
> 
> Where did, and where does, our national wealth come from? From our system of government? Heck, Liberia basically took the US Constitution, erased the word "United States" and scribbled in "Liberia" and had themselves a ready made system of governance. Are the US and Liberia equal in terms of outcomes?
> 
> The wealth we created arose from peoples and their cultures. When we import 3rd world natives, we're importing a different people, and they bring with them their culture. If those people and their culture couldn't develop their countries to be successful, what has changed for them in the US? They're simply being governed by a new form of government. Liberia had the same form of government as the US and look at how they turned out.
> 
> The only thing that is masking our slide is the dilution effect - high achievers mixed with low achievers equals a statistical average of "things are not as bad as we fear." Now change the ratio of high to low by decreasing the number of high earners and increasing the number of low earners and see what happens.
> 
> If you take 3rd world people and their culture and find that they have a higher growth rate in your society than your American's coming from families who had earlier made America great, then let the ratio between the two groups grow ever more lopsided and you'll see America turning into a third world country - all it takes is time and causal dynamics remaining constant over that time.


I agree with you on most points. With boomers coming of retirement age the more will be depend on a gov that won't exist. It already doesn't exist in the way it did when I was young & dumb.
What people are missing is, the US will HAVE to have a lower standard of living, which I think the masses won't except.
You know that the Rich countries will have to give extra to raise the poor countries out of poverty, and famine etc. This leveling the playing field. We can't raise them all to our stand, it can't be done. The rich nations are the sacrificial lambs. 
Think Robyn hood.
I can't dispute your claim on the 3 rd world nation thing, because I have not yet read enough to be educated to carry on an intelligent Conversation. 
Butter start striding in a hurry. 
PS these people coming to the US want us to recognize the beliefs and values. Courtrooms are fill with people coming over here and what to be tried in our courts under there laws (Muslim law) as an example. This is the USA, if the laws better where you came from our boarder does go both ways, you free to leave!
)in conclusion , when we rise, by no shape or form will resemble we have now/ or had when my great parents or grandparents arrived in Ellis island!


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## BillM

*I'm learning Spanish*



cengasser said:


> I agree with you on most points. With boomers coming of retirement age the more will be depend on a gov that won't exist. It already doesn't exist in the way it did when I was young & dumb.
> What people are missing is, the US will HAVE to have a lower standard of living, which I think the masses won't except.
> You know that the Rich countries will have to give extra to raise the poor countries out of poverty, and famine etc. This leveling the playing field. We can't raise them all to our stand, it can't be done. The rich nations are the sacrificial lambs.
> Think Robyn hood.
> I can't dispute your claim on the 3 rd world nation thing, because I have not yet read enough to be educated to carry on an intelligent Conversation.
> Butter start striding in a hurry.
> PS these people coming to the US want us to recognize the beliefs and values. Courtrooms are fill with people coming over here and what to be tried in our courts under there laws (Muslim law) as an example. This is the USA, if the laws better where you came from our boarder does go both ways, you free to leave!
> )in conclusion , when we rise, by no shape or form will resemble we have now/ or had when my great parents or grandparents arrived in Ellis island!


I'm learning Spanish.

I want to be able to ask them to change my diper when I get to the nursing home. :dunno:


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## cengasser

BillM said:


> I'm learning Spanish.
> 
> I want to be able to ask them to change my diper when I get to the nursing home. :dunno:


You crack me up! Maybe I should get the CD's and learn also. I know enough to be dangerous.


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## Tweto

BillM said:


> I'm learning Spanish.
> 
> I want to be able to ask them to change my diper when I get to the nursing home. :dunno:


You might want learn Chinese also so that you can talk to the management.


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## invision

How far will we fall made me start to wonder and ask questions to friends that I have in the financial world. I have a very close friend who is a C level executive at a top asset management firm, and I mean top 100. Both he and the CEO have been on many of the financial news networks commenting on the economy, been asked by both Bush and Obama fronts to give advice (not listened to by either side), etc. He is actually more independent than republican and like me, votes for the best instead of straight party lines. 

BTW, this guy is not only a CPA, but has two masters degrees, MBA and one in finance.

His quote:
We will not recover from our national debt. there is no possible way, there would have to be both a massive increase in taxes and massive reduction of spending. All though both parties want one or the other, neither will accomplish both. Every democracy/republic has fail because of gluttony, and we are no different. Also Globalization makes it easy for companies such as Apple, Google, GE, Cisco, etc to be domicile anywhere so no need to step up to the plate. In fact they can pay their 2% tax then move to Ireland in a heartbeat. Be prepared for a complete collapse of the economy as we know it, food and transportation services will still be available however they will be limited. It will become a dangerous 3rd world environment if not worse in the US and elsewhere. 

Another comment that was made by another friend is very similar to this. His predictions are very similar, but also said that when the markets switch from oil being bought by the USD to another currency is when we are completely screwed.


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## machinist

I agree on the oil thing. That will kick our butt like most people have never imagined. It would price oil products out of reach for many, if not most people, and add drastically to the cost of everything else due to the hidden costs for manufacturing (both energy and materials), and transportation. I see that putting us back to somewhere around 1930, as relates to how we could live, maybe as far back as before electricity and cars, for a lot of folks. 

I would not be surprised if the dollar's demise caused a resurgence of using manpower and animal power for many things now done with fossil fuels and electricity, simply due to poverty and the high cost of energy. 

If we are fortunate, the govt. may decide to make priority fuel allotments for farmers in order to keep the nation fed. If they don't we are in big trouble.


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## pandamonium

invision said:


> Another comment that was made by another friend is very similar to this. His predictions are very similar, but also said that when the markets switch from oil being bought by the USD to another currency is when we are completely screwed.


If I am not mistaken, if the USD is no longer the world currency, we can no longer continue to print money like we are now. That would not be a good thing.


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## partdeux

pandamonium said:


> If I am not mistaken, if the USD is no longer the world currency, we can no longer continue to print money like we are now. That would not be a good thing.


we could continue to print as much as we want, it would have even less value 

If the US economy collapses, it will take down the entire world with it. I said it before, I could see us dropping back as far as the late 1800's. Every other country that has failed, has had the US swoop in and directly or indirectly pick up the pieces. Who's going to help us?


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## invision

No one... We have too many enemies, and certainly not NATO.


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## pandamonium

Wel....not saying that this is what I believe, but.

Things have been moving steadily toward the cliff for so long and with such, _determination_, that it almost seems like our problems are engineered. It doesn't take a genius to know that you can't keep spending more money than you take in. That is just one point. Our Constitution clearly defines our freedoms and clearly defines government power. However, the Constitution has been used to wipe the arses of politicians for quite a while. Whittling away at our Rights while getting people conditioned to expecting the government to be the answer to all of our problems. The creation of "sheeple".

Again, not saying this is what I believe, but I wouldn't doubt for a second that the state of the global economy, eminent collapse, is planned. Then the globalists will come in and pick up the pieces and shape them into the world government they dream about. I also don't doubt that there are those with the wealth and power and influence to manipulate the economies of the world to facilitate such an event.

Here is one of the uber-elite that has the power, wealth and will. George Soros. https://www.capitalresearch.org/201...george-soros-prepares-for-the-troubles-ahead/

From the article; As the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate, anger will grow and rioting in the streets is sure to follow. "It's already started," he says. "Yes, yes, yes," Soros adds; "almost gleefully," Newsweek writer John Arlidge editorializes.

For years Soros has longed for an opportunity to transform America into a socialist state. Will he finally get his chance in 2012? "The system we have now has actually broken down, only we haven't quite recognized it and so you need to create a new one and this is the time to do it," he said in 2009 as he created the Institute for New Economic Thinking with a $50 million endowment.

http://www.humanevents.com/2011/04/02/top-10-reasons-george-soros-is-dangerous/

From the article; Currency manipulation: A large part of Soros' multibillion-dollar fortune has come from manipulating currencies. During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad accused him of bringing down the nation's currency through his trading activities, and in Thailand he was called an "economic war criminal." Known as "The Man who Broke the Bank of England," Soros initiated a British financial crisis by dumping 10 billion sterling, forcing the devaluation of the currency and gaining a billion-dollar profit.

So, is it tin-foil hat time? Or should we paying more attention to why and how we are where we are now?


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## BillS

pandamonium said:


> During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad accused him of bringing down the nation's currency through his trading activities, and in Thailand he was called an "economic war criminal." Known as "The Man who Broke the Bank of England," Soros initiated a British financial crisis by dumping 10 billion sterling, forcing the devaluation of the currency and gaining a billion-dollar profit.


Who's to say that the same thing couldn't be done with the dollar or Treasuries?


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## pandamonium

He's working on it! I have been reading different things about thos guy. He wants America to go DOWN so he can play God. He is stupid rich, powerful and has a God complex. A dangerous man!


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## db2469

For what it's worth and it's worth as much as the above speculation, I don't believe Soros or anyone else has engineered a global collapse, but the collapse will be a result of our debt that no politician, for fear of not getting elected, will try to fix. Special interest lobbying, corruption, corporate greed, wars, to mention a few examples, will have all played a role in our demise. I'm sure the super rich and powerful have been prepping for this event, some deep underground I imagine, as I would do if I had the time and money..


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## LincTex

Busboy said:


> We won't fall as low as the Third World countries.
> 
> What we have, that they don't:
> 
> 1) An already established infrastructure. We have a great highway and rail system. The electrical grid and power generation systems. Water and sewer systems. Transportation and communication systems. So the bulk of the capital expenditures have already been made in this country, unlike theirs.
> 
> 2) We have, in this country, more than ample energy supplies for our country's needs.
> 
> 3) We have more than enough food production capabilities for our country's needs.


1) So did Zimbabwe, when it was Rhodesia. 
But is has all gone to hell since they won't fix and repair/maintain what the Brits left behind for them. 
Their infrastructure USED TO BE established as well, but now it is in shambles.

2) But most of our energy is in coal and natural gas, and neither one of those will pour into your gas tank from a 5 gallon can and go drive on it. 
We have some oil, but it takes energy to harvest energy. Oil drilling rigs and frac pumps won't run on coal or natural gas, either (although it would be possible with enough work).

3) No we don't - not without cheap oil to run the tractors and combines, and a whole lot of fertilizer and chemicals derived from - - oil and natural gas.


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## machinist

Fuel and fertilizer for farming is an Achilles heel for the US. Farming was once done with little or no ptroleum products, but that was far less productive per acre. Now, farming has evolved to become like factories that require special inputs and have very little flexibility there. It could chaange back, but would not be able to feed nearly so many people as the US does presently.


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## BillM

A farmer harvesting a good crop of wheat in 1929 useing animals to till the soil ,plant and harvest his crop could produce 20 bushels per acre.

Today he harvests 70 bushels per acre useing modern equipment, fertilizers and insecticides.

There were only two billion people in the world in 1929. There are seven billion now.

I am guessing that it would be years before the farmer could achieve 20 bushels per acre again if he was forced back to animal drawn equipment.

As for the advisability of useing corn to produce fuel, it takes a barrel and a half of fossile fule to produce a barrel of ethonial.

Where is the energy saving there?

If this country could explore and drill for shale oil and exploit our traditional sources of consentrated energy already available , ( such as coal and natural gas) we could survive almost any blow we are dealt in the future. This is a huge country and it runs on readily available cheap energy.

Unfortunatly , the intrest of George Sorros, (who owns the largest tanker fleet in the world) superseeds the intrests of the U S population.

We have been deluded into believeing that the enviornmental groups are saving us when they are actually the bought and paid lobby for the intrests of a shipping magnet.


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## LincTex

BillM said:


> I am guessing that it would be years before the farmer could achieve 20 bushels per acre again if he was forced back to animal drawn equipment.


Good farming practice requires using organic waste products such as straw and stalks tilled back into the soil for the next crop to get its nutrients from. we artificially boost yield with tons of nitrogen to force more grain to grow, but all of the trace minerals get used up in the process. All of our farmland is now damaged from being overworked, the exception being organic farms.

Actually, wheat yields are pushed over 100 bushels per acre in some places, and some crops like corn are particularly hard on the land. What is everyone planting now to take advantage of the high prices thereof? Corn.


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## machinist

Yeah, corn. It's amazing what all is made from corn. Corn syrup that is in most everything now, glue, corn oil, who knows what else. 

It reminds me of that game of stacked blocks (Jenga?) where you pull blocks from the stack until it all crashes down. Pull out the wrong piece from our society and nothing will work after that.


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## semperscott

I believe the infrastructure will fail. The workers will be protecting their families, homes, and property. Who would work with little to no chance of pay while your family are in possible danger? None.

America is sliding downhill, has been for years. America has gone up and down, but the ups are fewer and far between while the downs last longer and go deeper. 

A Sergeant once told me to "wish in one hand and sh*t in the other hand and see which hand fills up faster."

So I pray for peace and prepare for anarchy.


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