# The "waves" of what will happen?



## TexasMama (Dec 3, 2012)

Somewhere - I don't remember where it was - or if it was several places - I read about how there will be certain time frames where there will be "waves" of things happening....

For instance - for the first couple of days people may be in shock - there will be some/major looting of stores (depending upon location), etc. 

If there is an EMP - there may be major deaths at first in hospitals and for those who are on dialysis or those who may have pacemakers (or insulin pumps?). 

As time goes on....there will be people starving off (not sure how long that is) - and then the major problem is from gangs, etc.

Does anyone have a link to that information or can you tell me if it is available in one form or another? I wanted to explain that to my family but for the life of me - I can't remember the various places where I've read it.

I mostly have read (fiction) about EMP attacks and non-fiction like the LDS Preparedness Manual and a bunch of prepping links and books online and in hardcopy.


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## badman400 (Oct 15, 2011)

There is a guy from Argentina who wrote of his experiences with their economic and societal collapse. Not sure of his name, but I think he went on to write a book about it. Here it is:

http://survivalpreparednessblog.com/tag/argentina-financial-collapse


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

He goes by Ferfal. Here is his website... http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008/10/thoughts-on-urban-survival-2005.html

He now lives in Ireland. He has a book on Amazon though I have not read it.

His website is a good place to start for beginners because he has a lot of thought provoking stories.


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

Texasmama, I know this is not exactly what you are looking for, but this link explains what happens in a disaster when truck traffic is stopped.

http://www.truckline.com/Newsroom/Trucks Are/When Trucks Stop America Stops.pdf


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## prepmama (Mar 4, 2012)

Have you seen After Armageddon? It was a History Channel special from a few years ago. Watching that is what opened my eyes. It shows one family trying to survive after shtf. You can find it on YouTube, forgive me if this link doesn't work I'm posting from my phone...


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

A quick version.


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

History has told us that yes things happen in waves. Human nature doesn't change much. We do forget history. Even though certain circumstances change with the times, some major factors never change. We still need the basics and when deprived of the basics then we react according to human instinct. I'm no big history buff or research finatic, just what I've seen in the past and predict will happen in the future.


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## dlharris (Apr 3, 2011)

In regards to the waves....read "One Second After" by William Forstchen. I thought was a very good read. Made me think about a lot of things I had not thought of.


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## cqp33 (Apr 2, 2012)

dlharris said:


> In regards to the waves....read "One Second After" by William Forstchen. I thought was a very good read. Made me think about a lot of things I had not thought of.


Agreed, great book that I have read once and it is really what got me started thinking a lot smarter about how to prepare! I created list of items I needed based off of reading this book, it also brings up certain skill sets that will be important as well. Shows the importance of community strength in numbers during certain situations too.

I will reread this book soon though because after reading it I realized it is a good "bench mark" to use for what you would need in SHTF situation!:scratch


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

cqp33 said:


> Agreed, great book that I have read once and it is really what got me started thinking a lot smarter about how to prepare! I created list of items I needed based off of reading this book, it also brings up certain skill sets that will be important as well. Shows the importance of community strength in numbers during certain situations too.
> 
> I will reread this book soon though because after reading it I realized it is a good "bench mark" to use for what you would need in SHTF situation!:scratch


I watched waterworld to prepare for when all land is covered because of global warming melting the icecaps and everyone lives of islands of floating junk strapped together.

I have solar powered scuba tank compressors and an AR-15 speargun


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

labotomi said:


> I watched waterworld to prepare for when all land is covered because of global warming melting the icecaps and everyone lives of islands of floating junk strapped together.
> 
> I have solar powered scuba tank compressors and an AR-15 speargun


You are TOO funny!!! :teehee:


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## dlharris (Apr 3, 2011)

I'm sorry some people feel the need for sarcasm when people are trying to learn and ask questions. I thought this site was for exactly that....NOT being condescending and making people feel silly for asking questions.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

dlharris said:


> I'm sorry some people feel the need for sarcasm when people are trying to learn and ask questions.


Most of us here have everyday lives we have to live. Levity is what helps keep us all sane. I don't believe there was any intentional offense intended.


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## dlharris (Apr 3, 2011)

UncleJoe said:


> Most of us here have everyday lives we have to live. Levity is what helps keep us all sane. I don't believe there was any intentional offense intended.


One of the things I love about this site is the humor but when new people start posting ...if you make them feel silly they aren't going to feel comfortable posting again. I just think some of the veterans should keep that in mind when newbys post.


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

My apologies. Maybe some don't know how excruciatingly horrible that movie was.


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## dlharris (Apr 3, 2011)

labotomi said:


> My apologies. Maybe some don't know how excruciatingly horrible that movie was.


No issue. It was a very bad movie. : / Just want newbys like me to feel comfortable posting....


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

kejmack said:


> Texasmama, I know this is not exactly what you are looking for, but this link explains what happens in a disaster when truck traffic is stopped.
> 
> http://www.truckline.com/Newsroom/Trucks Are/When Trucks Stop America Stops.pdf


What a great link thank you.

I just hope our overpaid political appointee will read it next time we have a 911 and because airplanes go hijckacked stop truck traffic (huh?? thats the kind of quality descion making we cna expect in our current system)


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

*Let's get back to the original question*

I have also seen that list and for the life of me I can't remember where. However, with the collective knowledge of this forum I believe we can reconstruct it. This is my first blush:


The first week people may be in shock; however, they believe things will return to normal.

Within three days most people are running out of food and the grocery stores have been emptied and cannot be re-supplied.

Looting starts, not only of stores; but, of homes.

If there is no electricity, anyone who is very young, very old, very ill, or who does not have a sustainable source of power for dialysis, oxygen, etc. will die.

If there is no electricity, water and sewer services become unavailable in most areas within a few weeks of an event.

90% of the people living in the big cities will die in the first month if they do not have access to food, clean water, or sanitary systems
.

I'll hand this off to someone else who can help jog our memories.


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## Boomy (Mar 17, 2012)

Country Living said:


> I have also seen that list and for the life of me I can't remember where. However, with the collective knowledge of this forum I believe we can reconstruct it. This is my first blush:
> 
> [*]The first week people may be in shock; however, they believe things will return to normal.
> 
> ...


Distant Eden?


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

Boomy said:


> Distant Eden?


I don't know what you mean.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Neither do I.


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## dlharris (Apr 3, 2011)

I googled it....it's a book.


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

I'm not 100% sure how it will come down, only that I do think it will at some point. 

Having said that, it makes sense on some level that there would be an order of things to come, but who knows for sure. 

I personally think it will countinue as it is now, a long slow slide into some sort of economic catastrophe/collapse. IMO, as long as the "masses" continue with entitlements, there will be relative peace. If there is a civil breakdown, I think it will come from some sort of extreme austerity program. That is what will trigger something worse that just bitching and complaining. Just take a look at Greece, France, Italy....

Or a very small incident somewhere that causes everyone to become pissed off enough to turn things to rage and craziness. 

Just my thoughts.

Jimmy


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

Jimmy24 said:


> I'm not 100% sure how it will come down, only that I do think it will at some point.
> 
> Having said that, it makes sense on some level that there would be an order of things to come, but who knows for sure.
> 
> ...


Entitlement is the key word. Angry raging sheeple dont start with anger. Its like a brat who doesn't get his/her way then has a screaming fit when they don't get what they are use to getting. Brat enabling government? God forbid one has to work, prepare and take full responsibility for the future. It wasn't always like that. : ( At least that's what I think.


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## emilysometimes (Oct 6, 2011)

I've read the article or blog TexasMama is talking about, but I can't remember where and it's driving me nuts. I did find this, though. http://survivalblog.org/ I had to scroll about halfway down the page till I found "What to expect when the grid has been down 7 days." It goes on to day 30. This isn't the exact article I think Texas Mama is looking for, but now I'm on a mission to find it. That trucking article is pretty close, though.


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## TexasMama (Dec 3, 2012)

Thanks everyone - just now catching up on the posts.

I wound up buying "Surviving the Economic Collapse" by the guy in Argentina. I read through a bunch of his stuff and found it practical - so decided to buy the book. WOW. I'm not done with it as I've mainly scanned various parts - but I really like it.

I appreciate all the input - I guess I just wanted to write this stuff down somewhere so that when the SHTF ... I can comfort my family by sharing with them "hey...it's ok...it will probably be bad like this for a bit but this wave will probably last X amount of time," etc. 

I will try to keep an eye on this thread in case someone does find the list I'm thinking of.

BTW - the link to the History channel show was awesome....the show was quite thought provoking..thanks for sharing it.

And the link about when the trucks don't go...wow!

Once again - all help appreciated.


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## headhunter (Nov 21, 2008)

I may have found what someone was looking for. It was posted on JWRs site: posted Nov. 10,2010 RE: A Vereran Policeman's Observations on the Golden Horde

Letter Re: A Veteran Policeman's Observations on The Golden Horde
By James Wesley, Rawles on November 30, 2010 6:41 PM
James, * A lot has been written warning us of what will happen when the City Dwellers find their homes are untenable and vacate [en masse as The Golden Horde] for "the country", but I haven't seen anything on what the make-up of these hordes will be. The generic term "city dwellers" encompasses a lot of territory. Who will they be,what kind of shape will they be in, how will they be armed...all of these need to be examined.
One category needs to be examined, I feel, more closely than others. Since I have seen posts on your site lately dealing with the nitty-gritty, unpleasant aspects of prepping, I think this is a needed look into what's out there. I've been a cop over 20 years, my last uniform assignment before moving to Investigator being a two year stretch*of Anti-Crime patrols in the Section 8 Housing projects of my city. This put me into contact with some of the "Worst of the Worst" that will be fleeing the cities in time of trouble. Gang-bangers, common street thugs, dope dealers and users, all have a place in the hierarchy of the streets. And they will certainly be part of what preppers will be facing in times of troubles. Here's some of what I have learned:  The bottom rung is occupied by the drug addicts and users. They exist, not live as we understand the word. They have no assets, no goals, no drive. But they do have an almost animal instinct to continue living. They will be armed with anything they can steal or lay hands on. Most will have a knife of razor box cutter, and some sort of cheap pistol, or they will not live to get out of the city. Since they have no resources or assets, they will be on the edge of starvation and desperation almost within a day of an event. With no fixed residence or*place to defend, they will be hitting the road and coming towards us. They will become violent without any provocation and there will be no negotiating or bargaining with them. They don't want to hear your story or excuses. All they want is what you have. And have no doubts: They will do anything to get what they want. And this does include catering to their most base instincts of rape, murder and mutilation. Letting someone like this even close to you and what you have is flirting with death. *
The next and most numerous will be the drones who make up the majority of the project dwellers. They live on Government Entitlement checks, have no assets and, on any given day will have no more than 3 or 4 days supply of food in their apartments,most of this being refrigerated. There will be a high percentage of females without male companions,will have a large number of children and will be absolutely vicious and violently inclined. Their day to day existence within the defined society they live in demands they be aggressive and violent.They fight more, and are arrested more,than the males they live around. The males will have more serious charges, but the females will have more of them. They too cannot be trusted. If they are drug users, they will, and have, traded their children for drugs, and, based on this proven behavior, will most certainly abandon them or trade them if the situation calls for it.*Seeing that you are supplied, they will leave their children in your yard and walk away, counting on your liberal Good Samaritan instinct that has always bailed them out in the past to care for their offspring and justify that to themselves as "doing what they have to do". Knowing that they will do something as low as this,be assured they will do much worse. They habitually carry razor knives and small pistols such as .25 ACPs and .380 ACPs. They are very dangerous and unstable folks to be around. These females may or may not be accompanied by men. The males may be linked biologically to one or more of the children but will abandon them as easily as the females. These males come from the lower order of males (see next classification) and will be armed as described next. *
The next order of classification will be unattached or drone males. These males tend to be convicted of felonies before they are 21 and who hang around the other, more productive males who deal drugs and have money. They will also be the so-called "foot soldiers" of the drug and street gangs. They exhibit sociopathic behavior and have no allegiance to anyone except maybe a family member, usually referred to as a "cousin" or a gang. They live off the female drones by paying cash rent, gained by low level drug dealing and petty crimes, to a female who has Section 8 housing, for a room that they sleep in and usually have no other attachment such as taking meals there.They live off fast food,carry guns of dubious origin and consume massive amounts of drugs and alcohol, mostly beer and cheap brandy and marijuana. They will not have any assets to defend, may accompany the female who rents them a room and will hang around the cities and projects only as long as their cohorts do. They will leave in junky vehicles,steal what they need along the way and kill,rob,rape and pillage their way across the countryside. Their weapons tend to be of the pistol variety although they may have access to shortened, easily concealable shotguns or rifles. Their lifestyle doesn't give them a secure place to hide or keep long guns,but they will steal and use them if given a chance. They will also have some type of blade weapon and be proficient with the use of them. They are very dangerous to anyone who comes into contact with them. The last and highest order will be the moneyed drug dealer.He will have a flashy vehicle such as an Escalade or Lexus variety. He will have quality firearms, preferring Glock handguns and SKS or AK type rifles and will have ammunition for them in quanity.He will be arrogant and a definite killer. He will have assets to defend and may not leave his comfort zone until forced by authorities or circumstances. He will have "foot soldiers" and a woman traveling with him, but probably not children. He will travel well and be charming when trying to gain confidence or talk himself out of a jam. He will also be vicious and hateful, full of spite at those he sees as having taken away his lifestyle and means of making a living. He most probably will not have a lot in the way of supplies such as food and medical equipment, tending to live in the moment and not for the future. He will be one of the opportunistic "I'll just take what I need" types. He will be very cunning, having risen to the top of the street hierarchy,and all the more dangerous because of this. *
When dealing with all of the above types, caution is the word. Never let them get even a glimpse of what you have. Never let them get past your outer barrier, be that a fence, abatis or boundary line. Its best to keep verbal contact to the barest minimum. A terse: "We have nothing, go away*or we will shoot" is a good example. I have seen them be charming and seemingly harmless while edging into a fence gate or otherwise getting closer until they are in range to strike. You must always remember the 20 foot rule (Never let anyone get closer than 20 feet from you at any time). It is important to remember also that the longer they have been roaming and stealing,the better armed they may be, having stolen others firearms and equipment. Seeing*an obvious*street thug carrying an expensive scoped rifle or an engraved shotgun should be a tip off as to what they are. These type people would never spend money on a gun that may be taken by the law at anytime in their day to day existence. They do worship Glocks and the glamour they see in them. A dealer told me once, when confessing to an assault "I just outs with my Glock .40 and let it holla" as if he had done something great. *
I know that most people who read your blogs are aware enough to keep strangers away from their refuge.But if someone has never lived around these types of people,they may not be aware of just how dangerous they really are. As I mentioned,they can be charming,cunning and decietful.They have lived their entire lives off the goodwill of others and The Government and are past masters at pretending to be needy,harmless and "safe". Guile is engrained in them. * I leave you with one short story. In the days after Hurricane Katrina, we were reinforced with officers from other agencies, many states away, who had volunteered to help. (I was not in New Orleans, but on the edge of the hurricane strike) I was partnered with a state SWAT officer from up North. This man was experienced and a "steady hand". As we walked through some of the power blacked-out , sweltering-in-the-heat projects, he turned to*me and said: "This is worse than Mogadishu". He was scared and had good reason to be. And this was after only three days of no electricity and relief was just starting to arrive. Think about those same areas after a real failure of services and food deliveries. * Good Luck. Beware the Stobor. - Ed S.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

One of the waves that concern me is the wave of illegals that will flood across the border looking to loot the rich USA.


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

hiwall said:


> One of the waves that concern me is the wave of illegals that will flood across the border looking to loot the rich USA.


I've thought about this, too, and we've had long discussions about it at work. Honestly, I don't think the average Mexican is coming across the border. They already live with minimum luxuries and their lives won't change that much. DRUG CARTELS are a completely different story. They are already entrenched in many American cities and they are extremely well organized. They are also better armed than most police.


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## musketjim (Dec 7, 2011)

Matthew Bracken wrote an excellent article called "When the music stops" about the collapse of entitlements. Excellent read.


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## Country Living (Dec 15, 2009)

musketjim said:


> Matthew Bracken wrote an excellent article called "When the music stops" about the collapse of entitlements. Excellent read.


Here's the link: http://westernrifleshooters.wordpre...-how-americas-cities-may-explode-in-violence/

It's a lengthy article and I haven't had time to read it so I can't summarize it yet.


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