# So... Buying yaun...



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

I just made a statement of converting 1000 usd to yaun on another thread...

Good hedge or not?

Opinions please?


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## biobacon (Aug 20, 2012)

Well I think it couldn't hurt, unless of course we do go to war with NK. What kind of transfer would this be? Are you going to get into a currency fund or are you thinking a swap with a broker. I could see a freezing of Asian assets if we do go to war but other then that it might be a good idea. Ive just read about this kind of stuff and have only exchanged money in the small scale while in other countries so I don't know that much about it other then its said to be kind of hard to get into and make money unless you got serious capital to invest.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

biobacon said:


> Well I think it couldn't hurt, unless of course we do go to war with NK. What kind of transfer would this be? Are you going to get into a currency fund or are you thinking a swap with a broker. I could see a freezing of Asian assets if we do go to war but other then that it might be a good idea. Ive just read about this kind of stuff and have only exchanged money in the small scale while in other countries so I don't know that much about it other then its said to be kind of hard to get into and make money unless you got serious capital to invest.


Talking "in hand" currency... $1000 would get me $5,414.50 for less than $7 in fees... Pick up at local Travelex store here in Atlanta.


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## biobacon (Aug 20, 2012)

7 in fees aint bad. Do a history search on the balance of trade and see what it is has done and what it is expected to do. Remember gold is a universal currency, but if your looking to get in on the ground floor with the yaun then maybe. If you got the cash. Good luck.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

Not, unless you're planning a trip to China. As biobacon mentioned, I'd go with PMs.
It boils down to what you plan to do with the investment. You're also open to liquidity issues when you try to convert back. There's bound to be an ETF for it. http://etfdb.com/type/currency/rmb-chinese-yuan/


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Marcus said:


> Not, unless you're planning a trip to China. As biobacon mentioned, I'd go with PMs.
> It boils down to what you plan to do with the investment. You're also open to liquidity issues when you try to convert back. There's bound to be an ETF for it. http://etfdb.com/type/currency/rmb-chinese-yuan/


I have a decent amount of PMs (Junk Silver, Silver Eagles, and Krugs), just thinking with China now making open moves against the USD, AND they have also stated they want their currency more on the open market, they won't be able to keep the price artificially down IMO in the next 2-4 years... If USD now has a 1:5 ratio today against the CYN, in 2-4 years from now we could see a total flip flop where the ratio changes to 5:1, so that 1,000USD:5,000CYN would go 5,000CYN:25,000USD... I would be hedging against devaluation of the USD, with CYN in hand exchanged for a tiny fee of $6-7.... A chance to turn $1,000 USD into $25,000USD....or at least maintain the buying power of $1,000USD today if we do see hyper-devaluation of the USD... Also, unless there is a total complete melt down in 2-4 years where international travel becomes obsolete then currency exchange centers (especially in a city like Atlanta) aren't going to go away... Make sense?


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

invision said:


> ... Make sense?


Yes, but you're forgetting one important thing.

What type of economy does China have? It's primarily an export economy (though that is changing to some extent.) By that, I mean that China receives most of their foreign reserves through the selling of merchandise of dubious quality. So if the USD vs Yuan ratio flipflops, all of their crapola will be very expensive. So their economy will tank as well since their export markets will collapse. If/when that happens, there'll be political unrest over there.

To understand my point, look at Germany. Germany produces high quality exports that are relatively expensive. But their exports are (barring cars) machines that are used to produce either other machines or run on assembly lines. These machines can be sold to any country that has a low cost labor market.

So China will be directly affected by any major yuan valuation move very quickly while Germany is a bit more isolated. I strongly recommend reading Aftershock, a book by 3 economists about the coming bubble economic crisis.

China is racing to try to convert as much of their economy as possible to be self-sustaining in order to avoid a crash.


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## biobacon (Aug 20, 2012)

I was just watching a video on Aftershock, Im going to see if I can get a copy from the library now that you gave it the thumbs up.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Think about where the big secure and profitable investment centers are... Instead of Yuan I would also maybe look into Singaporean Dollar and United Arab Emirates Dirhams. 

You do make a good point, though - and it is attractive, and possibly very profitable if you sell at the right time.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Nice points everyone... 

Hmm... thinking maybe splitting up a $1000 and spreading it into different currencies now... LincTex yeah your right, those two also could be profitable as well... 

I honestly don't know... I have a decent amount of PMs, and am just looking at ways to further hedge against the USD if it fails...


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

invision said:


> I honestly don't know... I have a decent amount of PMs, and am just looking at ways to further hedge against the USD if it fails...


I'm using ammunition though you might also want to look at the Swiss Franc.


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

yuan is only worth what the chinese govt determines it to be worth AND the stability of USD and EURO


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

All fiat currencies are heading towards 0. I'd buy junk silver instead.


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

invision said:


> I just made a statement of converting 1000 usd to yaun on another thread...
> 
> Good hedge or not?
> 
> Opinions please?


I think with the start of Bric Bank Currency this is a good idea!


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-28/bitcoin-may-be-the-global-economys-last-safe-haven

Bitcoin May Be the Global Economy's Last Safe Haven
By Paul Ford on March 28, 2013 

One of the oddest bits of news to emerge from the economic collapse of Cyprus is a corresponding rise in the value of Bitcoin, the Internet's favorite, media-friendly, anarchist crypto-currency. In Spain, Google (GOOG) searches for "Bitcoin" and downloads of Bitcoin apps soared. The value of a Bitcoin went up to $78. Someone put out a press release promising a Bitcoin ATM in Cyprus. Far away, in Canada, a man said he'd sell his house for BTC5,362.

Bitcoin was created in 2009 by a pseudonymous hacker who calls him or herself Satoshi Nakamoto (and who might be several people). It's a form of virtual cash used to buy goods and services online. Even by Web standards, it's a strange and supergeeky phenomenon. This is what happens when software and networks meet the concept of currency, when you take peer-to-peer networks and advanced cryptography and ask, "How can I make a new economy?"

There are 10,952,975 Bitcoins in circulation. (With a digital currency you can be specific.) Bitcoin isn't about to replace hard currency-with a market cap of $864 million, all of it is worth less than what Facebook (FB) paid for Instagram-but it's bigger than anyone expected. And many people will tell you that the emergence of a virtual global money supply beyond the reach and control of any government is very real and that it's time we take it seriously. As long as the Internet remains turned on, Bitcoin will be there-to its adherents, it's the Platonic currency.

A dollar bill has a serial number and travels from buyer to seller. A Bitcoin's not so much a thing as an understanding, a balance in a decentralized general ledger, or "account log." Bitcoins are created as the side effect of a great deal of meaningless computational work. That is, the computer could be working on protein-folding, or processing images, or doing something else with its time, but instead it's being used to "mine" Bitcoins-searching for mathematical needles in a networked haystack. Once the needle is found, a "block" of Bitcoins is born. Bitcoins live in a bit of software known as your "wallet."

How did they get there? Perhaps you minted them by mining, or bought them on an exchange, or received them as part of a barter transaction. Now those Bitcoins are burning a bithole in your bitpocket, and you want to buy something. How do you spend them? Clicking around your wallet app, you set up a payment and put in the Bitcoin address of the recipient-something memorable and fun, like 1Ns17iag9jJgTHD1VXjvLCEnZuQ3rJDE9L. A few minutes later, after the peer-to-peer network has authorized the transaction as legitimate, the recipient's wallet, wherever it is, will show that you've paid up.

How is this different from PayPal (EBAY)? In theory anyone could run his own version of PayPal on a server and use that to transfer funds between parties. But he'd also need to handle world currencies, deal with security, and handle regulations. Similarly, physical banks promise protections above and beyond stuffing cash in a mattress or dropping it off in paper bags. Financial institutions commodify trust-it's not their money, after all. It's yours. Yet you trust them more than you trust yourself.

Bitcoin shrugs all this off. It's not pegged to anything, and there are no regulations. It's a supercomputer-size chore to counterfeit. The key thing to understand is that there's no bank, no Federal Reserve, in the middle. It's not unlike an exchange-traded fund (for example, FORX, from Pimco)-a mix of non-U.S. currencies-designed as a hedge against the dollar. Bitcoin is a hedge against the entire global currency system. And no exchange is needed, unless you want to convert your Bitcoin into an actual hard currency.

Bitcoin is no more arbitrary than derivatives or credit default swaps. Given that regular folks, if they're nerdy and interested in Bitcoins, can use the currency for all manner of things, including illegal things, it's arguably a far less arbitrary instrument.

Maybe Bitcoin's devotees are right, and it's the currency of the future. Or perhaps it's a ridiculous joke-a speculative, hilarious enterprise taken to its most insane conclusion. Given that the founder is nowhere to be found, it feels like a hoax, a parody of the global economy. That the technology used to implement it has, so far, shown itself to be impeccable and completely functional, and that it's actually being exchanged, just makes it a better joke. The truth is, it doesn't much matter if it's a joke or not. It works.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Now that I would not buy....


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

The CRAZY thing is.... with new sanctions, that is how Iran is moving their money around!!!

Dollar-Less Iranians Discover Virtual Currency
By Max Raskin on November 29, 2012 
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-29/dollar-less-iranians-discover-virtual-currency

Iranians (and Americans) Use Bitcoin to Fight Government Control
Katherine Mangu-Ward Nov. 30, 2012 4:26 pm
http://reason.com/blog/2012/11/30/iranians-and-americans-use-bitcoin-to-fi


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## lghb518 (Mar 8, 2011)

How about currency exchange of USD to Swiss francs? Yeah or nay?


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

lghb518 said:


> How about currency exchange of USD to Swiss francs? Yeah or nay?


If you're doing it to protect yourself from a USD collapse, then Swiss Francs will do you zero good. Currency only has as much value as the two trading partners trust that it has. Say your neighbor has some food you desperately need and he wants you to pay for it. Do you think he will accept Swiss Francs as the medium of exchange?

If your doing it as a hedge against inflationary forces... maybe, but you won't be able to accumulate any significant amount of money to make it really worthwhile.

My opinion, the only possible way to survive a total collapse, and this is in order of priority
Firearms and Ammo
Water
Food
Precious metals


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

While theoretically there are tons of reasons not to do this (the one that sticks out for me is, if something really bad happens with our relationship with them, how would you convert it back, and the other is...well were talking about China and who the hell knows what they might do) there is one big one that says 'how can you lose'?
Pretty simple. There is only one reason they would lose the peg, and thats a dollar collapse or events that would/will bring about said collapse. Meaning they will only do it if their currency stands to gain from it, or conversely the action would hurt the dollar.
Make sense?
Basically, they will continue the peg until its in their benefit to get rid of it. For a pure investment/hedge I like it. For SHTF, not so much. People talk about 'gold will be worthless', what would a paper Yuan (yaun, lol, boy I'm tired) be worth?
Peter Schiffs point has been that China focusing its resources on export markets actually hurts them as a nation. While this is obviously true, it implies that the Chinese gubt cares about the common man which it clearly doesnt. The Chinese gubt makes US look good in that respect.


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## UKzilla (Apr 10, 2013)

FIAT is not a good hedge no matter what. However if you do want to hedge in FIAT I would not go to the yuan as if the US tanks so does China as they are one of the US's main suppliers of useless crap. I would invest in a resouce backed currency such as the CAD (Canadian) or AUD (Australian) as both these economies produce a huge amount of resources. Mainly I would lean towards AUD tho because canada and the US are also huge trading partners.

Keep your money in precious metals and bitcoin as the best hedge.


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

I'll agree that fiat generally aint the best idea, but assuming no massive collapse, yuan seems like a decent bet.
As to your comment about the CAD, I'm pretty sure that if the USD took a header then Canada (eh?) would be in the same boat as China, given that we are their largest trading partner.
The Aussies are already making agreements with China (as are a lot of other countries, including, France?) so that might be a decent idea also, but at least theoretically someone may accept your CAD as money, I cant imagine you'd find anyone to accept the Aussie.


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