# January stock market crash & coming COMEX default



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

Here are parts of two articles:

http://beforeitsnews.com/alternativ...nuary-collapse-is-the-smart-move-2841238.html

Why Prepping For The January Collapse Is The Smart Move

Renowned technical analyst Tom DeMark has discovered that the market activity prior to the 1929 Stock Market crash is incredibly similar to the Stock Market of today.

His calculations suggest that the market will crash on or around 14 January 2014. And this is one storm you can't fully prepare for, but you can take some action.

His calculations are not the only ones out there.

Stan Harley, a former Navy pilot and author of the Harley Market Letter, figures that January 10th will mark the top of the market, before it plunges into darkness.

Ed Carlson, the current living expert on the works of the late George Lindsay, has calculated the first half of January is the likely drop date.

http://www.dailypaul.com/306774/comex-is-on-verge-of-default

Note: COMEX, (Commodity Exchange, Inc.) a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)

COMEX on verge of default

From the blog of Harvey Organ, someone who's very knowledgable about insides & outsides of working of COMEX. Reports are alarming. Draw your own conclusions about how manipulated & fraudulent current metal "spot prices" are.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

Monday, December 2, 2013

We had some activity in the Comex gold vaults today but again surprisingly no gold enters the dealer.

Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold remains tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 18.37 tonnes

and what is totally remarkable is the fact that no gold is entering the dealer comex vaults despite December being the busiest month for the gold calender.

"Something" must happen."

December has arrived and with it the spectacle of COMEX delivering on contracts. Gold went to first notice day on Friday with 1,020,000 ounces of Gold standing for delivery. This is in contrast to the registered inventory holding only 590,000 ounces available for delivery. How will this 1 million ounces of Gold be delivered? It is hard to tell but suffice it to say that 400,000+ ounces need to be delivered in to make up the deficit. Last year if I recall, 1 million ounces were delivered in for December as it also had a large amount standing for delivery.

*All I know is that as it currently stands, this is the very first time as far as I know (including the 1979-80 episode) that more Gold is standing for delivery than the COMEX reports to be available to deliver.*

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It seems to me that some major shocks are heading for the economy. The dates could be off but I expect them during the first quarter of 2014.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

I don't see the market crashing this soon... Here is my reasoning.

There are talks again of QE being slowly shutdown - but with Yellen getting the nod for chairman - she is just as bad as Ben B in regards to blindly believing in the QE process. So any sign of the markets truly going down, she will pour on more printing. Second, even though the Fed Reserve holds, what? Almost $2T in debt, they are keeping it off the books, and until they are forced to decide what to do with this debt they can just keep it off the books. Finally, even though China has made announcements about not buying our debt and raising the yuan to WRC standards, it will take 2-3 years to impact us.

So what is the trigger event? Could it be the debt ceiling/budget again? Negotiations aren't going good cause we have the administration tooting the trumpet for more taxes, which will backfire on them in 2014. So they will back down, simply because they can't afford a second black eye - 1st being Ocare and the billion dollar web debacle.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

In January we do have more budget deadlines, but also a large group of people who just lost health coverage and haven't been able to replace it will stop going to the doctor. Others who have gotten through will be reducing their spending in other areas due to the higher amounts they are paying for less insurance than they previously had.

I don't know how long it will take for that to translate into economic pain or a market drop, but a little caution makes sense.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

The bad thing about making predictions is that they usually do not come true. Many people in-the-know say the market will crash but the timing is anyone's guess. Whether it is next month or next year we should all prepare as best we can while we can.


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## cqp33 (Apr 2, 2012)

I am with hiwall on this one! I believe it will crash but when is anyone's guess. Doing what you can to improve your prepared position before it happens will ease your pain when it does! I still wouldn't stop paying my bills to prepare, i will continue to pay my bills until any means to do so is no longer available. I have seen some say "it's inevitable" and then stop paying bills and buy a lot stuff that didn't need to be purchased in haste, probably could have gotten a lot of it at a sale price if they waited, bottom line here is prepare within your means and stay tuned for the immediate warning signs of an economic collapse such as the banks closing!


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## airdrop (Jan 6, 2012)

My family were farmers during the depression an did as they always did survive.My great grandma must have had money in the bank when money became short because they gave her a house on a small plot on the highway as payment on her account. At sometime she sold it lol we can only hope she made money. The worse of that time was mostly factories closing and the dust bowl at the same time. So what do you do ,learn to grow food ,get that 5 acres you always wanted an see how to raise animals LOL. Man I don't know when it will happen but for god sakes we can't own $17 trillon ,print money like toilet paper, then burden the people with ACA healthcare that will kill home income for some. This is a broke country an you'al better get ready to be hungry real hungry.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

I can tell you Jan 2nd will be a serious down day in the markets.
Why?
Those folks with big gains will not sell this year, but will sell after the new year so their taxes won't hit as soon.


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## BlueShoe (Aug 7, 2010)

BillS, eventually you're going to get one of these.


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

BillS said:


> Renowned technical analyst Tom DeMark has discovered that the market activity prior to the 1929 Stock Market crash is incredibly similar to the Stock Market of today.


Maybe on paper. There is one slight difference... The FED is pumping 85 BILLION dollars (that we know of anyway) into the economy every month. Well,... The banks numbers anyway. Back in '29 the banks were just out to grab anything they could, realizing folks had no 'money' to pay for it. Today, they are still grabbing what they can but the market is not there to buy it all up. Sure, foreign money (using USD) is willing to invest it here but none, or not many, US citizens are able to buy. The Government is buying up all those assets to keep the bubble going.

Bill, You know this is a Ponzi scheme. I have read enough of your posts to know this. Do you have any constructive advise to see any of us little people through it?


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Marcus said:


> I can tell you Jan 2nd will be a serious down day in the markets. Why? Those folks with big gains will not sell this year, but will sell after the new year so their taxes won't hit as soon.


Not necessarily - investors using already taxed income to build wealth can defer these tax burdens over multiple years. Isn't that correct?


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

One normal seasonal factor is all the folks who maxed out 401(k)s and IRAs can resume contributions with the first of the new year. That is an inflow into the market.

With multiple factors pushing the market in both directions, I think timing a downturn will be very difficult. I've been expecting a downturn for the past 8 months and been wrong the whole time, but sooner or later I'll be right like a stopped clock being right twice a day.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

invision said:


> Not necessarily - investors using already taxed income to build wealth can defer these tax burdens over multiple years. Isn't that correct?


In Roth IRA/401Ks, there are no additional taxes. In regular IRA/401Ks, the money isn't taxed until it's withdrawn.

But for regular accounts, any realized profits are taxed as either regular income or capital gains depending on how long it was held. With the S&P up 20% YTD, people will be looking to lock in their gains since it makes good sense from a money management perspective.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

Woody said:


> Maybe on paper. There is one slight difference... The FED is pumping 85 BILLION dollars (that we know of anyway) into the economy every month. Well,... The banks numbers anyway. Back in '29 the banks were just out to grab anything they could, realizing folks had no 'money' to pay for it. Today, they are still grabbing what they can but the market is not there to buy it all up. Sure, foreign money (using USD) is willing to invest it here but none, or not many, US citizens are able to buy. The Government is buying up all those assets to keep the bubble going.
> 
> Bill, You know this is a Ponzi scheme. I have read enough of your posts to know this. Do you have any constructive advise to see any of us little people through it?


Put as much long term savings as you can into gold and silver because you'll probably need it to survive during the time before the collapse. I expect the dollar to be devalued by probably 30% initially. Sometime next year Saudi Arabia will most likely start accepting other currencies for oil. When that happens we'll see big declines in the value of the dollar. Being able to sell a few ounces of silver at a time might be the only way you can put food on the table.

It wouldn't be a bad idea to stock up on more food. Look around the house and figure out what extra items you can sell to buy more silver.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

I don't think the next depression will hit until other currencies are accepted for oil.


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

Which is already happening! China is breaking away from the USD as fast as they can. I buy as much PM's as I can actually afford to, silver mostly as I feel it is way undervalued.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> I don't think the next depression will hit until other currencies are accepted for oil.


I'll bet it's happening between "agreeing" countries.... No one wants to really admit it yet, though.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> I don't think the next depression will hit until other currencies are accepted for oil.


It is already happening except with OPEC. Iran will sell to any currency, and Brazil has BRIC and TIMP agreements. OPEC announces a second currency, that is the sign that USD is no longer WRC... Game over within months if not weeks.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Iran is one of the founding members of OPEC. but they are our friend now, right?


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

invision said:


> Not necessarily - investors using already taxed income to build wealth can defer these tax burdens over multiple years. Isn't that correct?


I don't think it matters if you used taxed or untaxed income to create new income. You can decide when to sell something that has gone up or down in value so you can control when you take that income or loss.

In December of 2012 I sold all my silver and took the loss on my taxes. Then when my income tax refund came through I bought it again at a lower price than I sold it at.

Only a few people qualify for income averaging:

http://www.ehow.com/about_6633178_irs-filing-income-averaging-information.html

"Income averaging is a federal tax code provision for people with widely varying income from one year to the next. It allows people who receive little income one year and huge income the next to reduce their tax liability by spreading out the tax bite on the huge sum over a three-year period.* The 1986 Tax Reform Act abolished income averaging for all taxpayers except farmers, fishermen and certain qualifying retirees who cash out their retirement plans."*


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

BillS said:


> I don't think it matters if you used taxed or untaxed income to create new income. You can decide when to sell something that has gone up or down in value so you can control when you take that income or loss. In December of 2012 I sold all my silver and took the loss on my taxes. Then when my income tax refund came through I bought it again at a lower price than I sold it at. Only a few people qualify for income averaging: http://www.ehow.com/about_6633178_irs-filing-income-averaging-information.html "Income averaging is a federal tax code provision for people with widely varying income from one year to the next. It allows people who receive little income one year and huge income the next to reduce their tax liability by spreading out the tax bite on the huge sum over a three-year period. The 1986 Tax Reform Act abolished income averaging for all taxpayers except farmers, fishermen and certain qualifying retirees who cash out their retirement plans."


I meant more Buffets deferred taxes by holding long term. Example, say he has a stock he has held for 10 yrs, from then to now it has gained $1M in value. He can determine when he wants to pay his taxes by when he sells, aka unrealized capital gains.


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