# Thoughts?



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/18/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE9BH04Z20131218


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

How about giving us a clue as to what we're getting into?


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## VoorTrekker (Oct 7, 2012)

It's called link dumping, UncleJoe. Some people can't help themselves. 
The link is about the Fed no longer buying bonds and stimulus or some such scam.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

They can always up it again.



> The Federal Reserve on Wednesday embarked on the risky task of winding down the era of easy money, saying the U.S. economy was finally strong enough for it to start scaling down its massive bond-buying stimulus.
> 
> The central bank modestly trimmed the pace of its monthly asset purchases, by $10 billion to $75 billion, and sought to temper the long-awaited move by suggesting its key interest rate would stay at rock bottom even longer than previously promised.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

I was watching Fox Business today and one of the "market experts" said that this looks a lot like the MD has tried every known medicine on the patient and nothing works so the only thing left to do is to take slowly take them off medication and see if the patient survives.

There is a another way to look at it. This could just be an experiment to feel the waters before the real tapering starts next month. If the market crashed, they would have made the decision to continue with QE3.

I find it interesting that all day long before the announcement that all the financial stations and there pundits were saying that there is no way the the fed will taper today. I also found it interesting that within 1 second of the announcement the DOW dropped almost 100 points and then almost as fast shot up for a gain all 250 for the day. 

I see this as a head fake to get the uninformed investor to get back in to equities so that the professionals can get the half of their money out of stocks that is not already in cash and show a better profit for the end of the year. After the first of January could be the billy bob smack down.

Of coarse this posting is just my opinion and I could be wrong!


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> How about giving us a clue as to what we're getting into?


Sorry, was in a hurry, saw the news article and posted just the link...

Fed slowing down QE3 after taking on $4Tn in debt....


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

invision said:


> ..... taking on $4Tn in debt


Unfathomably large numbers.... man we are screwed


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

The $10 billion a month decrease is really just window dressing. It's just for show. It doesn't do much. The real activity is allowing the big banks to borrow money at almost 0% and then buy Treasury bonds and play in the stock market.

It's being reported on Zero Hedge that high frequency trading began 50 seconds BEFORE the Fed announcement. Certain people were alerted to the Fed's decision before it happened.


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## CapnJack (Jul 20, 2012)

Y'all got your helmets handy, right?


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

CapnJack said:


> Y'all got your helmets handy, right?


Yep, and magazines topped off too.


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## JayJay (Nov 23, 2010)

CapnJack said:


> Y'all got your helmets handy, right?


And poop proof boots!! artydance: Because it's getting high.


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

Heres the article Bill is referencing, pretty interesting.

If there is anything still 'real' about the markets, doesnt this (market reacting to the upside after the taper announcement) show that its all about interest rates? Since they are so low, what choice does anyone have but to go to stawks?
I dont watch/read much mainstream press, but it seems to me the fact that half of QE being a massive bank bailout doesnt get much mention.
Why isnt the F3D buying up my distressed Pets.com stock, bailing me out?


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

Yesterday Goldman Saks said that they expect Gold to go below $1000 in the coming month or year. Silver will follow. About 30 mins later, a big wheel for Lear the PM dealer said that Gold and silver will have record years in 2014, so take your pick. Goldman Saks doesn't sell PM's but Lear does. I will believe Goldman Saks.

A trader on the COMEX floor also stated that it appears that prices are being manipulated and that none of the other traders know what's going on.


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## DJKen (Jun 12, 2011)

To me, this is akin to an alcoholic going from 40 beers a day to 36 beers a day .


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

> Yesterday Goldman Saks said that they expect Gold to go below $1000 in the coming month or year. Silver will follow. About 30 mins later, a big wheel for Lear the PM dealer said that Gold and silver will have record years in 2014, so take your pick.


My guess is they are both correct. It will continue to drop for awhile then rise. everyone is just guessing. the financial markets are sooooo screwed up no one knows what will happen.


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## CapnJack (Jul 20, 2012)

JayJay said:


> And poop proof boots!! artydance: Because it's getting high.


Boots ain't gonna help you unless you got your waders on, too.


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

Tweto said:


> Yesterday Goldman Saks said that they expect Gold to go below $1000 in the coming month or year. Silver will follow. About 30 mins later, a big wheel for Lear the PM dealer said that Gold and silver will have record years in 2014, so take your pick. Goldman Saks doesn't sell PM's but Lear does. I will believe Goldman Saks.
> 
> A trader on the COMEX floor also stated that it appears that prices are being manipulated and that none of the other traders know what's going on.


Gold, silver and the other PM's have been being manipulated for a while now. (Is that grammatically correct?) If in doubt, just look at the money supply, prices of all other commodities and PM prices. As the money supply increases, each dollar is worth less because it is 'diluted'. The worth of a good, in fiat dollars, goes up. It does not actually cost more, the dollar is just worth less.

For the price of everything we buy to be going up and the price of PM's to be going down is out of sync. It is not supply and demand either. Remember last year when it was hard to take delivery of actual silver? Demand outpaced supply and the price still went down! True, some major dealers were most likely holding until the price went back up but the price should have gone up further because of lack of supply to meet demand.


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

Tweto said:


> Yesterday Goldman Saks said that they expect Gold to go below $1000 in the coming month or year. Silver will follow. About 30 mins later, a big wheel for Lear the PM dealer said that Gold and silver will have record years in 2014, so take your pick. Goldman Saks doesn't sell PM's but Lear does. I will believe Goldman Saks.
> 
> A trader on the COMEX floor also stated that it appears that prices are being manipulated and that none of the other traders know what's going on.


Gold, silver and the other PM's have been being manipulated for a while now. (Is that grammatically correct?) If in doubt, just look at the money supply, prices of all other commodities and PM prices. As the money supply increases, each dollar is worth less because it is 'diluted'. The worth of a good, in fiat dollars, goes up. It does not actually cost more, the dollar is just worth less.

For the price of everything we buy to be going up and the price of PM's to be going down is out of sync. It is not supply and demand either. Remember last year when it was hard to take delivery of actual silver? Demand outpaced supply and the price still went down! True, some major dealers were most likely holding until the price went back up but the price should have gone up further because of lack of supply to meet demand.

I thought of a good example. Back in the '80's I lived in NE PA, in an old farmhouse and heated with oil. I filled the 500 gallon tank in summer at $0.59 or $0.69/gallon. Come December I was down so called for a refill, to try and get to spring or maybe one more refill. The woman on the phone said it looked like it had been a while since I ordered and there had been a price increase A DOLLAR increase since the summer, $1.69/gallon!!! It was NOT that the price of crude had doubled. This was on the evening news, the winter so far was colder than expected and the refiners did not create enough heating oil to meet demand.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Before jumping from Fed tapering to gold and silver prices, I think it is worth considering what this means for the economy overall.

Since the recession officially ended, we have had a very slow recovery with a very slowly declining unemployment rate. The consensus view is that the Fed QE program has been beneficial to this result. Removal of the QE component of Fed stimulus will probably result in higher long term interest rates, but the Fed still will be holding short term rates at low levels, probably until 2016. This is still very easy monetary policy by any measure except what's been going on the past couple years.

As a result, the Fed will still be stimulating the economy for awhile. The issue is will it be enough to offset all the negative things going on, e.g. Obamacare, fragile housing markets, huge deficits, etc.? Personally, I think Obamacare is a larger negative than most people recognize and that we have a high risk of recession in 2014 as massive disruptions to the job market occur, driven by Obamacare. The Fed's tapering may very well be slowed from the stated plan if that occurs.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Ok now I will reply to the article 

I was wondering if anyone picked up on China's statement a few weeks prior where they stated a slow down and stoppage in buying our T-Bills/T-notes... Then applied it to the fact that the Fed is now tapering QE - abet slowly... When all along Ben B has stated that QE would not be stopped or tapered as long as unemployment was above 6.5%


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

China, the BRICS and others know what is going to happen. They are all making arrangements to trade outside the fiat U.S. dollar. They cant totally cut off their purchase of treasuries, there is too much at stake for them right now. Once they get other trading partners to take our place, all bets are off.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

I find it odd that after years of what most of us would consider irresponsible monetary policies that when the first step in the direction of normal monetary policy occurs, the reaction is that this is bad.

What's your preference, continue with the irresponsible policies?


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## crabapple (Jan 1, 2012)

Helmet,magazines top, rifles, shotguns & pistols loaded,boots, coat & BOB,BOV gassed up.
Only a few months food, but lots of water.


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