# Here is something that doesn't make sense to me...



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

From Reuters - http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/09/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE93006T20130409

Stocks also got a boost from a promising start to the earnings season. While only 5 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far, almost three-quarters of them have topped expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data. Still, profits are seen rising just 1.5 percent from a year-ago quarter, down from estimates in January for growth of 4.3 percent.

Ok, I can see positive news, 3/4 are reporting higher profits from last year... But look at the estimates versus actual... Way off and they are happy?!?


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

The market is rigged. HFT accounts for 50-75% of the trading.
1.5% doesnt beat inflation.
F3D prints billions/month, gold drops.
Clinton lies in sex scandal, no problem.
Bush lies to get us into war, no problem.
Obama authorizes drone strikes on US citizens on US soil, no problem.
All of them reelected.
War is peace...
I'm not surprised by anything anymore, because nothing makes any sense.


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## UKzilla (Apr 10, 2013)

I've stopped trying to make sense of the stock market a long time ago. The real answer is institutional money, the money that moves markets always knows something we dont.


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## faithmarie (Oct 18, 2008)

How much interest do we make on our savings now? I was just wondering.


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## zombieresponder (Aug 20, 2012)

They're trying to spin it like the economy is recovering. It likely will recover for a short while, and then the bottom will completely fall out.


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

Immolatus said:


> The market is rigged. HFT accounts for 50-75% of the trading.
> 1.5% doesnt beat inflation.
> F3D prints billions/month, gold drops.
> Clinton lies in sex scandal, no problem.
> ...


The beginning of the end of times my friend! Halleluiah! Take me to the promised land!


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Well, it is definitely strange that the Fed seems to be arguing when and how to stop QE3... My prediction will be the following:

1) more bad news will be filtered out slowly - employment numbers down again next month, big box retail sales will be down for the quarter, GPD for the quarter will miss estimates...

However, the market will continue to ignore the subtle indicators that not all is right in the economy... After all they just got another $85B from the fed this month...

2) Japan will sputter around, the lower yen value may help make their in hand and owed USD worth more, but it really will hurt their overall economy more - look at a company like Sharp, they are spending 20 more yen per $1 in the last 3 months for EVERY $1 spent on US staff, US based services, etc... The average Sharp Business Solution office probably has 50 US employees. Put the average salary of $50,000 - that's 50MM more yen in expenditures... 

However, because they too are buying their own debt similar to QE3 in US - so see their markets rise...

Because markets are rising, gold hedges will slow more...

When QE 3 starts to wind down, the market will not be setting new records but slow down some... When QE3 stops it will look like post QE1 or 2... Down.... The question could be is does this all create a burst able bubble - IMO yes... Will it burst? If it does, I don't think we will be as fortunate as the last two bubbles...

That is why I think China and the rest are moving away faster than ever before from the USD... None of the US rags seem to be talking about it in great detail, but Reuters, FT and a few others seem to be commenting on it at least once a week or every other week... Hmmm...


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

In MHO the only reason why stocks are going up is because investors from around the world see the US markets as the last place to go. They look at the earnings and say they are OK (not great but OK), They look at QE and say as long as QE is continuing the markets will not collapse. They look at the fed rates and say as long as the rates don't go up we are OK. PM's are down and projected to stay down so they can't put money there. 

I think that everyone is desperate and just looking for a place to park their money to preserve their wealth and make enough to cover inflation. The second that they perceive that there is a better place to have their money they will pull all their money out of stocks and the stock market you collapse at a record pace.


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## haley4217 (Dec 16, 2012)

Tweto said:


> In MHO the only reason why stocks are going up is because investors from around the world see the US markets as the last place to go. They look at the earnings and say they are OK (not great but OK), They look at QE and say as long as QE is continuing the markets will not collapse. They look at the fed rates and say as long as the rates don't go up we are OK. PM's are down and projected to stay down so they can't put money there.
> 
> I think that everyone is desperate and just looking for a place to park their money to preserve their wealth and make enough to cover inflation. The second that they perceive that there is a better place to have their money they will pull all their money out of stocks and the stock market you collapse at a record pace.


Tweto, I agree with what you've said in this post as well as with the prior post by invision. Not arguing with you but offering another prespective, I'm wondering how much of the US market is being bought by investors around the world. While one cannot argue that investors are putting their money in the US Market, I'm wondering how many of these are doing it of their own will or alternatively with a knowledge or understanding of volitility. Let me explain that last comment.
1. Of their own will.... How much of the market today is covered by investors who have money in the market through their Pension Plans or such that are not specifically directed by them. Or, how many of the 401K and other plans that are invested in the market are being managed for the investor and either through lazyness, lack of understanding or simply personal choice they are not directing how their money is invested.
2. without knowledge, or understanding.... Unfortunatley there are a lot of sheep out there that are nothing more than followers. They've got some money and they put it in the stock market because the heard that someone else did. Because there is the possibilty of some financial advisors who are not watching out for the good of their clients but instead for themselves, these sheep are told "you need to get you money and put it in X because it's going to do good" or "you need to pull your money out of X because it's going to do bad". This being told to the sheep because the advisor wants to see the stock change as his bet is opposite of what he told the client.

So, the sheep and the unwilling investors get caught in the market and keep the money in the market and moving so that it doesn't fall and moves according to the "so called" good news. But, others are pulling their money out quitely and moving it into other safer havens. IMHO, that's gold.

PM's price is being manipulated down, either for the good of the FED to sell notes or for the good of a select few to buy gold at a bargin basin price, i.e. the increased purchases of gold by China, Japan et. al. Look at what happened to gold yesterday. An apparantly false or misrepresented statement that Cyprus was going to sell their excess gold drove prices down. Of course it was reported that minutes from the Fed meeting drove gold down, but it's hard for me to believe that minutes from a FED meeting where they discuss slowing down QE could be enough to drive gold down. It was more likely IMO the London gold price fix that decided that the story of extra gold hitting the market from Cyprus was enough to fix golds price down for the day.

Your points are well taken and valued for consideration, I just want to throw another view into the stream.


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Well, I was just watching Bloomberg as I had my breakfast... Two news stories I thought was interesting... They had a talking head from UBS go bearish on the market during a live chat - stating that the market was a bubble created by fed spending... The reporter went on attack... How can you say that look at this and this... He didn't back pedal much if any.... She got rid of him fast...

Then they flip to an interview of a British hedge manager that agrees with Goldman that gold is going down, but he also claimed, I think gold is worthless less than a pound an ounce. But the points made of why it is planned to go down make sense... Both Cyprus and Italy are thinking of selling their gold - more than a billion ounces... That is a flood, similar to US dumping silver years ago... My thoughts - good, more affordable for me to buy more.


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## ZoomZoom (Dec 18, 2009)

I'm no money guru but here's how I think of it. 

So long as the FED is printing money and keeping interest rates down, nobody wants bonds since there's no gain. Therefore, people move their money to the stock market in hopes of getting better then 1%. As soon as the FED stops printing, interest rates will go up (including on bonds). People will then pull from the stock market and put back into bonds. When that happens, the stock exchange will drop. As it relates to PM's, so long as the dollar looks strong and the market is doing well, they'll stay depressed. Once that flips, there will probably be another rush for the PM's and they'll go back up.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

haley4217

I also agree with your posting. Not all investors know where their money is being invested. A smart investor (if they have that option) will control their own money and will be able to (at the click of a mouse) move some or all of their money from one financial instrument to another or to cash.

Professional money managers (and I know a few) do not have the same interest in your money as you do. Money managers (not all of them but most of them) are required by their company to keep a percentage of the money invested. I have heard that the percentage can be as high as 98%. I asked my Fidelity accountant if they were to managed my money could they pull some or all of my money out of the markets and keep it in cash if they saw that the markets were collapsing, and I could not get a adequate answer. All he would say is that they want to keep their clients invested.

Here's the difference as I see it.

If I'm managing my money and I suspect that the markets are dumping. I will pull everything out and keep it in cash to stop the bleeding. Even if I'm wrong and the markets don't dump, what am I out, not much. If it did dump then I will be in a much better position when the market stop falling and I can get back in.

If a professional is controlling my money then they may ride my money down 20%, 50% or even further. Managers always use the reasoning that the market will recover (maybe years away). All the while the manager is still taking his percentage to manage my money.

As I said before a smart person manages their own money and takes the time to watch the markets to stay on top of whats going on. In MHO.


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