# How many still believe in Gold as safe haven?



## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

In just about the worst case scenario of an economic/currency collapse, it seems to me that gold and possibly silver would be the only "currency" of value when/if the governments reconstruct a society from the ashes...a new currency, maybe just one globally, could evolve but I would think gold could be cashed in for that....thoughts out there? Are many of you still buying PMs?
DB


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

db2469 said:


> In just about the worst case scenario of an economic/currency collapse, it seems to me that gold and possibly silver would be the only "currency" of value when/if the governments reconstruct a society from the ashes...a new currency, maybe just one globally, could evolve but I would think gold could be cashed in for that....thoughts out there? Are many of you still buying PMs?
> DB


as long as silver is so radically cheap compared to gold I will continue to buy it... (57.6-to-1)

historically gold stabilizes at 17-to-1 vs. silver, and I don't see gold coming down to $500/oz any time soon; even if the dollar miraculously strengthened in the next decade I still see gold coming down to $1000 and silver RISING to meet it to get to the 17-to-1 ratio...

I'm oversimplifying it a bit, but that's basically the theory I'm working off of and it's serving me pretty well so far.

If (when? :dunno: ) there is a fiat currency collapse PMs will be even more valuable, so IMHO it's win-win if you have them.


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## k0xxx (Oct 27, 2011)

Although I have been buying mainly silver recently, I still purchase gold when I come across a deal. I feel that PM's may drop in the short term due to falling demand for electronics and jewelry as economies slow, but once currencies start to lose value, the metals will climb to new heights.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

Blob...do you have silver in many forms? I have silver eagles, Morgan dollars, some regular bullion as well as a fair amount of "junk" silver...I've read that it might be used to barter with in a currencyless world so I'm keeping it until then or at least until it's apparent the S will not hit the fan! The gold I have is to be saved for the scenario I mentioned in my OP...
DB


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

My 401k might shrink, but that phyzz stack is always the same, not one ounce has disappeared. 

Silver is Silver, Gold is Gold, greenbacks aren't even worth the cotton they are printed on...


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## truecarnage (Apr 25, 2010)

Its a gamble, yes no, silver gold, but I can't eat it, you will get hosed big time if you try to buy gas, food, or other essential items that might be available in a disaster SHTF scenario. I'm not saying that precious metals is a bad investment but not a great idea for bartering situation if there is some kind of local or global collapse or meltdown.


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## CulexPipiens (Nov 17, 2010)

Is it a 401K or an IRA? If you can, consider silver EFTs in your IRA as an option. Sure it isn't the same as having the physical PM, but it might help preserve your monetary value in your retirement fund if you feel PMs are a good move but you're not willing to cash out and take the penalty.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

I like gold and silver both as a hedge against hyperinflation and for when society emerges from the collapse. I own silver and gold. I can always sell some of it when I need to finish prepping. There are some things I don't want to buy yet. Like baby supplies for the coming grandchild.


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## mojo4 (Feb 19, 2012)

Congrats on the new family member bill. Yes, buy them if you have extra money. IMHO, get your supplies in first and if you are among the lucky few that still have money left over get some PM's for trade. I still feel that the value of food, guns and ammo will rise faster after a collapse than PM's but its a tad easier on a bugout to grab a bag of gold than a truckload of supplies. I would much rather have some gold and silver than stacks of cash though because you can't print more gold! My personal priorities : supplies (food ammo guns booze) first, then PM's then a small amount of cash.


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## 101airborne (Jan 29, 2010)

Nope don't buy either one. IMHO when TSHTF you can't eat it, cook with it, defend yourself with it, keep yourself sheltered with it. USELESS.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

101airborne said:


> Nope don't buy either one. IMHO when TSHTF you can't eat it, cook with it, defend yourself with it, keep yourself sheltered with it. USELESS.


It could very well be the only usable currency after that...the dollar won't have value, so PMs might be our only hope to purchase anything after the reconstruction...
DB


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## TheAnt (Jun 7, 2011)

101airborne said:


> Nope don't buy either one. IMHO when TSHTF you can't eat it, cook with it, defend yourself with it, keep yourself sheltered with it. USELESS.


You could be correct however you could be wrong.

It all depends on how big the S is that HTF and what flavor (pardon the pun) that the S is. If a comet hits the earth and we are in a nuclear winter for 50 years and there are no crops, no government, no communication and no semblance of life as we know it then PMs will do nobody any good.

However if we have a major economic collapse in the US (and the world) and the dollar loses nearly all its value but we still have crops, government, and trade then PMs will retain value as they have throughout time and very well could be the only way to store wealth long term.

Its the strangest thing how folks like to make these wild emphatic statements about stuff when we are all talking about different hypothetical situations. When you answer a question such as this you really have to put your answer in perspective of what kind of S just HTF in your scenario.

PMs are the best way I know of to protect wealth in our current economic climate. This is likely to continue for the next 10+ years. I would not, however, purchase PMs if you do not already have an adequate supply of other life essentials (food, water, shelter, safety, etc). It is also important to have some level of cash supply available to you before you purchase PMs. PMs should always be considered a long term investment of surplus wealth. Not many of us have surplus wealth so the thought of purchasing PMs sounds rediculous and it probably is for those of us without surplus wealth.


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## UniqueOldGal (Mar 7, 2012)

Read Ferfal's real-life book about the economic collapse in his country in 2001 ,look at the similarities with what's happening here NOW,Then decide! No fantasies there;just what happened and is still happening to them. His point is even WSHTF there can still be police,government and finances. It boils down to the type of scenario you really expect and prepare for. Mad max? or things just getting really REALLY bad and "different" over time ....


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

101airborne said:


> Nope don't buy either one. IMHO when TSHTF you can't eat it, cook with it, defend yourself with it, keep yourself sheltered with it. USELESS.


:hmmm: Still looking for that _*sarcasm font*_? :dunno:
... if not, *History* might disagree with you there. :sssh:



UniqueOldGal said:


> It boils down to the type of scenario you really expect and prepare for. Mad max? or things just getting really REALLY bad and "different" over time ....


IMHO Mad Max is FAR from a 'worst case scenario', they still had a place called... *Bartertown*!   If there are other people, somebody (better off than most others) will want something shiny.

The :shtf: situations that will make PMs worthless will more than likely invalidate many other preps as well


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

I think gold still has value no matter what happens. Whether it's an economic collapse or a solar flare or an EMP attack. There will still be wealthy people and there will always be a demand for gold jewelry. Silver has value too but it's mostly as an industrial metal. Its value could decline significantly if its only value is for jewelry and we have to go back to an industrial age before electricity.


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## TheAnt (Jun 7, 2011)

BillS said:


> I think gold still has value no matter what happens. Whether it's an economic collapse or a solar flare or an EMP attack. There will still be wealthy people and there will always be a demand for gold jewelry. Silver has value too but it's mostly as an industrial metal. Its value could decline significantly if its only value is for jewelry and we have to go back to an industrial age before electricity.


Silver *is *primarily an industrial metal but for eons prior to the industrial age it was simply money. Thats what so many folks simply dont understand. They think that swath of cotton fabric printed in green ink is money. Its not. Its a bank note. Gold and silver coin is money -- plain and simple. It was eons ago and it will be in the future again.


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## prairie (Jun 11, 2011)

101airborne said:


> Nope don't buy either one. IMHO when TSHTF you can't eat it, cook with it, defend yourself with it, keep yourself sheltered with it. USELESS.


Tell that to the people of Zimbabwe.


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

Interesting video. Seems kinda heartless to say, but it must be nice to just be able to run off somewhere and dig up some gold.
This has no chance of passing, but would be interesting.
And by far the best comment...
"zero risk my ass...obviously they've never been involved in a boating accident."

And obviously gold will always have value, that darned barbarous relic!


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## LdMorgan (Nov 26, 2011)

db2469 said:


> In just about the worst case scenario of an economic/currency collapse, it seems to me that gold and possibly silver would be the only "currency" of value when/if the governments reconstruct a society from the ashes...a new currency, maybe just one globally, could evolve but I would think gold could be cashed in for that....thoughts out there? Are many of you still buying PMs?
> DB


The thing about precious metals is that the entire world (+/- eleven persons) has been taught that they are a store of value, in and of themselves.

So anywhere there is any significant surplus of survival necessities, one will be able to buy with gold or silver.

Long term survival is not a solo business. It requires community. Specialization and economy of scale will allow production beyond subsistence levels in communities, and that opens the door to commerce.

And that pretty much guarantees the utility of gold & silver.

Even in a _Mad Max_ world people are going to want their bling...


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## oldwindrow (Jun 25, 2012)

shtf might happen, but has it ever anywhere for very long? Buy Gold, or Silver, good investment. There are many other commodities that are good. Possibly for those worried, read up on the collapse of the Soviet Union, Germany after the first world war, or Argentina. Important though, don't go around telling everyone else to get gold, or the seedy sorts will know you have some hidden somewhere


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## alanz (Jun 7, 2010)

101airborne said:


> Nope don't buy either one. IMHO when TSHTF you can't eat it, cook with it, defend yourself with it, keep yourself sheltered with it. USELESS.


If things get so bad that gold is useless, then it means 90% of the world is dead and those left alive are starving in a post-apocalyptic nightmare. In that care, yes, gold might be useless.

But it's far more likely that society will continue to exist, even after millions die. And the people holding gold will be the only people with real money.


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## Jack Aubrey (May 24, 2009)

From what I've seen, PM's work as a wealth *RETENTION*vehicle, but not so much a wealth building vehicle.If the USD ceases to be the world's reserve currency SOMETHING has to fill the void. In past monetary devaluations, the government offers to trade the old currency for the new, often at an ridiculous exchange rate...in their favour, naturally. One unit for 50 of the former currency would not be out of the question.If someone wanted to make money speculating on PM prices, they missed the boat. The time to get on board was back in around 2000-2001. JA


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

I haven't seen any mention of governments getting involved in gold and silver ownership. Historically, when governments are floundering, nothing is safe. That bothers me.


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## k0xxx (Oct 27, 2011)

machinist said:


> I haven't seen any mention of governments getting involved in gold and silver ownership. Historically, when governments are floundering, nothing is safe. That bothers me.


India and China have been on a gold buying binge, with China on track to become the largest buy of precious metals in 2012. Also Brazil, Mexico and Iran have been buying large amounts. Kazakhstan's central bank publicly disclosed recently that it will almost double it's gold holdings, and South Korea has announced plans to greatly increase their holdings of gold. While not a government, the University of Texas took delivery of 1 Billion in gold last year.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

k0xxx said:


> India and China have been on a gold buying binge, with China on track to become the largest buy of precious metals in 2012. Also Brazil, Mexico and Iran have been buying large amounts. Kazakhstan's central bank publicly disclosed recently that it will almost double it's gold holdings, and South Korea has announced plans to greatly increase their holdings of gold. While not a government, the University of Texas took delivery of 1 Billion in gold last year.


What do you make of the University of Texas buying that much, or any for that matter?
DB


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## ComputerGuy (Dec 10, 2010)

db2469 said:


> What do you make of the University of Texas buying that much, or any for that matter?
> DB


Gotta have something for future football recruiting!!


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## SageAdvicefarmgirl (Jun 23, 2011)

My understanding is the reason silver, gold and other like metals are considered "precious" is due to the facts that 1-they are relatively scarce, 2-no matter what shape they take, they "hold" their value based on weight, 3-they are not harmed by fire, rust, being buried, etc. and 4- they have multiple uses. For these time-honored reasons, they will continue to be valued as precious no matter what comes. If you have some, you have a form of wealth. The only thing I can think of that is worth more is your own peice of land....its just a bit harder to hide!


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## k0xxx (Oct 27, 2011)

db2469 said:


> What do you make of the University of Texas buying that much, or any for that matter?
> DB


While I have no way of actually knowing, my suspicions are that they are just doing the same as a lot of others, protecting some of their wealth for what they see may be coming down the road.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

k0xxx,

Yes, I've seen where several governments are buuying gold. I didn't say it very well, but what I meant was, the US once confiscated (or close to that) gold from individuals in the 1930's, and for very different reasons, I would expect them to do it again. Back then, they needed to devalue the dollar and had to get rid of the gold standard to do that. 

Once the dollar goes poof, I could easily see them confiscating gold with the notion of backing a "new dollar" at least partially with gold to get some credibility. Nothing is safe. There was talk a year or more ago in a congressional committee about taking over private pensions to fold into some kind of govt. backed pension plan, invested in US Treasuries, of course because they are "safe". Funny thing, the Fed has found it necessary to buy a lot of T bonds to prevent a bond auction failure, so Treasury bonds don't look all THAT safe to me. 

A failing govt is as dangerous as a snake in the blind. (When snakes shed their skins, they can't see very well until their new eye covering clears up, so they strike at anything.) The Argentine govt confiscated pension money when they were failing, so this has precedent. 

They want their hands on all that pension money. We already have obamacare, so they are gonna get their hands on some of all that insurance money. They have already made it clear that we stupid citizens don't have sense enough to spend our own money, so they are gonna do it for us. 

What is so different about gold and silver, that they would not decide that it would also be much better off in THEIR hands? Yes, gold and silver definitely will always have value. No doubt in my mind about that. That didn't mean much during the time after 1933 when US citizens were not allowed to own gold in appreciable amounts. 

Another risk is the flagrant manipulation of the price of PM's by TPTB. And there is a significant "haircut" in price both when you buy and when you sell gold with dealers. Then, the govt has a special tax on your 'profit'. So-called profit because all it amounted to was an attempt to preserve the value of the $$ you bought it with and the tax takes a direct cut into that value. 

Tell me again how good a deal this is??? 

It seems to me that a lot of preppers have a blind spot here. Gold fever is not a new thing. It drove a lot of prospectors to ruin in years gone by. If we don't consider the possibility that govt can do pretty much whatever the heck they want to, we haven't evaluated all the risks.

Marc Faber advises everyone to own gold, but to NOT hold it in the US, because he apparently sees the same risks I outlined. I am simply suggesting that we have an open mind to all the risks associated with ANY investment, including PM's.


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## CulexPipiens (Nov 17, 2010)

machinist said:


> k0xxx,
> 
> Yes, I've seen where several governments are buuying gold. I didn't say it very well, but what I meant was, the US once confiscated (or close to that) gold from individuals in the 1930's, and for very different reasons, I would expect them to do it again....
> 
> ...


As to your pension/401K comment... if it looks like it's going to happen, then either go along with it or cash out and take the penalty. Either way it's going to suck. One way they get it all and maybe you get some back, the other way you keep at least a chunk of it.

As to the PM confiscation... they can only confiscate what they can find/prove. If you're buying in large quantites, or with "ID" (via the web, etc) then it makes it easy. If you buy small quantities, a few hundred here, a few hundred there (mostly 1/10oz coins if gold, pretty much anything in silver), done in cash from a local dealer, you should be fine. No records. That makes it really difficult for "them" to find. If you really believe they'd go house to house looking for PMs then bury it somewhere, which as a theft deterrent, this might not be a bad idea anyway.

I don't see "them" going house to house. The man power just isn't there. Of course if they have other reasons to raid your place and happen to find some then they'll just tack that on to whatever they originally came in for.

Finally, unless you're selling, then tax shouldn't be an issue. If SHTF then you're probably trading it for goods/services and that's all going to be under the table. If SHTF doesn't happen then you probably holding it as a wealth preservation mechanism and if/when you sell you should have made a substantial profit or retained your wealth when everyone else dropped so the tax would be the lease of your concerns.

Please don't misunderstand I'm not saying that anyone must do this or should be doing this, just putting forth reasons why it might be a consideration for you/someone if it fits in with your preps AND you've taken care of stuff like food and water first and still have money left.


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## k0xxx (Oct 27, 2011)

machinist said:


> (snip)
> 
> Tell me again how good a deal this is???
> 
> (snip)


I believe that most people (at least on this forum) understand that Government can do basically anything it wants to do, whether or not those things are legal, constitutional, or moral. It is up to the individuals to either comply, or not comply while facing the possible consequences. Would I go running to the nearest Government office to turn in my PM's if told to do so? That would be about as likely as turning in my weapons, food, or anything else demanded. I will do what I feel is best for my family, no matter what is demanded of me.

I agree that gold will always have a value. It has held a value even before recorded civilization, judging by the archaeological record. And yes, there are many pitfalls and possible hazards to owning PM's. For all of those reasons PM's should only be a part of anyone's plans. Still, PM's may be one of the few ways available to maintain any wealth through any economic turmoil. The idea is to have something of value that can be converted to whatever currency is in use once the crisis has abated.

All of this being said, it is up to us to prep in the manner that each of us feels is most warranted. I started buying PM's back when I heard that the US debt had hit $1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion) back about 1981. I didn't believe that we could make it this far before getting into trouble, but we were "fortunate" to have policies in place that grew the economy enough to keep some sort of equilibrium between growth and the debt. The problem came when growth stalled, but we kept on spending ever larger amounts.

There comes a time when we all bills come due. I believe that time is coming due for America. It will not be a pretty thing.


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## machinist (Jul 4, 2012)

Culex Pipiens and k0xxx,

Thanks! That gives me a lot more perspective on this thread. I haven't been here long enough to have any context yet for the prior posts, so it sounded like a gold bug convention. Well, I suppose we could call it a group of INFORMED gold bugs maybe? 

Makes a lot more sense to me now. :beercheer:

This sort of subject is important to me, since wife and I are both age 66 and need to have retirement savings in some form for later years. From where we sit, nothing looks safe and there doesn't seem to be any savings or investment vehicle that gives much in the way of earnings. A bad time for old folks. Bad for younger folks, too, but at least they have more earnings potential.


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## Sam (Jan 7, 2009)

For us small fry, gold would be useless after SHTF simply because no one could make change. You might use gold to buy a house or big plot of land but commerce would probably be in silver dimes and they would end up chiseled into change. just my dimes worth


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## TheAnt (Jun 7, 2011)

Sam said:


> For us small fry, gold would be useless after SHTF simply because no one could make change. You might use gold to buy a house or big plot of land but commerce would probably be in silver dimes and they would end up chiseled into change. just my dimes worth


Agreed. For folks like us silver is a much better investment.

Not to mention, the way I see it silver has more room to move up than gold does when you take into account historic silver/gold ratios.


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## BillM (Dec 29, 2010)

Gold is a vehicle to transition wealth from a collapsing monitary system to a new or replacement monitary system.

Silver is more volital but also has more uses in industry. It is a ready commodity that will be tradable during a collapse of our existing currency.

There is six thousand years of history that says this will happen as it has happened over and over again.


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## JayJay (Nov 23, 2010)

Oh..I was going to post ....Me--Me--Me...and then I saw the word GOLD instead of GOD!!
'OOps!!


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## BlueShoe (Aug 7, 2010)

Sam said:


> For us small fry, gold would be useless after SHTF simply because no one could make change. You might use gold to buy a house or big plot of land but commerce would probably be in silver dimes and they would end up chiseled into change. just my dimes worth


If you're saying silver coins would get sectioned into pieces for currency, you're probably right. The bigger ingots would have to go to a broker of some kind. Black market or official. The official one is only going to allow you to present a small amount for your entire life. The rest they'll legislate against and you'll have to hide it and go the black market route after exhausting all family and friends presenting your excess to the official broker. And even family would want a cut.


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## mojo4 (Feb 19, 2012)

Get supplies in first. But once you have beans, bullets, bandaids and booze stacked in get PM's. Why put your faith in paper when the people in charge of the printing love to print. Hell, anymore they just click on the computer cause they're getting too lazy to even turn on the printing presses!!


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