# Early 2013: Prepare For A Massive Food Price Surge



## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

The after-effects of 2012′s summer drought are far from over.

According to a new analysis from Rabobank this year's crop failure and premature slaughtering of pigs, cattle and other staple meats will lead to an average 15% surge in food prices in 2013.

It may not sound like much, but when you combine this with monetary easing that threatens to rapidly depreciate the value of the dollar and an already indebted U.S. consumer, we can expect even more participants to enter government nutritional assistance programs.

It's more expensive than ever before just to stay alive.

_ The record US, and global, summer drought has come and gone but its aftereffects are only now going to be felt, at least according to a new Rabobank report, which asserts that food prices are about to soar by 15% or more following mass slaughter of farm animals which will cripple supply once the current inventory of meat is exhausted.

From Sky News: "The worst drought in the US for almost a century, combined with droughts in South America and Russia, have hit the production of crops used in animal feed - such as corn and soybeans - especially hard, the report said. As a result farmers have begun slaughtering more pigs and cattle, temporarily increasing the meat supply - but causing a steep rise in the price of meat in the long-term as production slows.

"Farmers producing meat are simply not making enough money at the moment because of the high cost of feed," Nick Higgins, commodity analyst at Rabobank, told Sky News. "As a result they will reduce their stock - both by slaughtering more animals and by not replacing them." Somewhat ironically.

Food prices are now being kept at depressed prices as the "slaughtered" stock clears the market.

However once that is gone look for various food-related prices to soar: a process which will likely take place in early 2013, just in time to add to the shock from the Fiscal Cliff, which even assuming a compromise, will detract from the spending capacity of US (and by implication global) consumers.

The "mass liquidation" of animals - which Rabobank said will pick up pace in the beginning of 2013 - will contribute to food prices hitting new highs.

The cost of pork is expected to rise at the fastest pace - by 31% by the end of June next year - while beef costs could increase by up to 8%.

"This record cost of meat and dairy will combine with already-high crop prices to increase food prices by 15% by the middle of next year," Mr Higgins added.

This would see food prices reach their highest level on record, up by 175% compared to the year 2000.

But the report stressed that the current situation is very different to the crisis of 2008 - in which food stables of the world's developing economies, like wheat and rice, were severely affected.

The bank's research follows official figures that showed inflation had slipped back to 2.5% in the UK - closer to the Bank of England's inflation target of 2%

But Mr Higgins warned that next year's food price rise could push inflation in the UK higher, and so further away from the Bank's target.

Via Zero Hedge_

But inflation is only at 2% according to the CPI.

Ben Bernanke and his helicopter air force have everything under control, just like they said they would.

That 15% in food price increases doesn't even include the new money that is sure to hit the system now that some $80 billion a month is being committed to maintaining the illusion of economic stability and recovery.

All the while American consumers, who assume everything is as it has always been, are going to be paying 175% more for food by summer of next year than they were paying in the year 2000.

The only investment strategy available to ensure that you don't run out of affordable food as the US dollar loses value and climate effects deplete available food stores is to invest in hard assets today.

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-ne...rice-surge-up-175-from-the-year-2000_09192012


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## lazydaisy67 (Nov 24, 2011)

Yeah and the problem is you've still got to eat now while you're buying extra food to be able to eat next summer.....:dunno:
I thought I had read/heard that when all the beef was dropped on to the market the price would temporarily go down. I haven't seen a dip yet, but am eagerly awaiting the day when I will be able to buy that. As it stands, I haven't eaten red meat for a looooong time


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## Davarm (Oct 22, 2011)

Well Daisy, we dont eat much red meat anyway but... if the price does go down, I'm going to start canning it.

If/when pork does go down, I'm ready for that. I've been playing around with curing pork and have come up with what promises to be a winner. I've found that pork Butt Roast cured in a half and half sugar salt "brine" tastes surprisingly like ham, red color and all. I've got the curing down pretty much and if it dries ok I'm going to start buying a pork butt roast each week and putting it back.

Each time I read into a thread like this, it makes me want to go buy another 100 pounds of corn(we like cornbread and hominy). It's sad to think how those who are oblivious to whats going to happen will make it. If I'm wrong, no big deal - we will have some cheap eats for a long while but I dont think I'm going to be wrong.


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## Turtle (Dec 10, 2009)

The other sad component to this that isn't often considered immediately is the economic ripple effect: if pork goes up by a large percentage, the local BBQ place will go out of business. Jobs will be lost. More on welfare. More loans defaulted from the owner.

Scary times.


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

The most interesting effect, and it's interesting because of its wildcard nature, is the consequences which will flow from the poorest of the poor around the world finding out that they have even less slack in their family budgets than do the American poor and can't afford to feed their families. Plenty of turmoil in Egypt in the past few years precisely because of rising food prices. In fact, it's not a stretch to argue that the entire Arab Spring movement arose in response to national governments not being able to fix the problem of rising food prices. Look at how that turned out. 

This food crisis seems to be unfolding to one that looks to have larger effect than what we saw in the past few years, so pissed off people around the world could really light the world on fire because, for them, it's an all or nothing proposition - riot and revolt in order to get food or die while being a peaceful little lamb.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

lazydaisy67 said:


> I haven't seen a dip yet, but am eagerly awaiting the day when I will be able to buy that.


I'm keeping my eyes open as well. We started asking around to see if we can find someone to split the cost of an entire cow. I met a local farmer that told me to stop by in Nov. and pick out the one I want. He will start butchering in late Dec. or early Jan. depending on the weather.


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## lazydaisy67 (Nov 24, 2011)

I'm worried about buying corn that was grown around here. Because of the heat and drought there's Aflatoxin in our corn. They're telling farmers to wear respirators, people's alergies have been particularly bad this year, etc. You can see exactly where it's at in the fields because they have large patches that look unusually dark brown/black. They say its ok to blend it with "normal" corn for animal consumption but I personally wouldn't eat any of it. It will also have an even greater effect on the food for the world than just the drought but I won't be surprised if people will get sick from it cause some scientist somewhere, probably paid by Monsanto will tell everybody it's safe to eat. They poo-poo the dangers of it, but it can make people very sick. We may yet have REAL zombies running around.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

I bought a lot of heirloom corn seeds this year for next years crop. I am trying to get our family 100% away from GMO foods, but it is difficult. The fertilizer expense to grow a good corn crop is insane.


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## cengasser (Mar 12, 2012)

Hubs just back from grocery store 10 pounds of stew beef at $2.00 a pound. This is the second week we caught the sale. Beef where we live always seems higher then in NJ where we moved from. Don't know why that is, but it is. So this was a good deal. Planning on canning all of this stash tomorrow. The first 10 we froze half. 
Maybe that surplus has started reaching the supply chain.


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

Honestly, I dont do the shopping here so I have no idea what the stuff costs to judge a price increase.
Oddly enough with all this talk of prices going up I just got back from a buddies house who raises pigs with 30lbs of pork in various forms at $5/lb. All organic and I know where it came from. He used to sell it for $7-8/lb but the market wont bear it anymore, maybe that will change. He had more than he could handle (his latest load was almost 400lbs), so we were doing him a 'favor' by taking it off his hands.
All the salt kinda gets to me, but holy crap is it good. The girl doesnt eat pork and I have to store it in the extra freezer, she objects to even having it in the house.


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## biobacon (Aug 20, 2012)

Ok you guys got me interested, how does one can beef? I know next to nothing about canning, Ok so I think I understand how canning in general is done but i also understand how an airplane works in general, dosent mean I could build one. I work in food serving and we are pretty anal about meet handling ( Ha Ha Ha). Im thinking you cook the meet first right? Any one know any good links? I was thinking of buying that $10 explore canning kit to give it a try, maybe this is an excuse.


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## goshengirl (Dec 18, 2010)

biobacon said:


> Ok you guys got me interested, how does one can beef? I know next to nothing about canning, Ok so I think I understand how canning in general is done but i also understand how an airplane works in general, dosent mean I could build one. I work in food serving and we are pretty anal about meet handling ( Ha Ha Ha). Im thinking you cook the meet first right? Any one know any good links? I was thinking of buying that $10 explore canning kit to give it a try, maybe this is an excuse.


This is near and dear to my heart, because I got started canning with a pressure canner and a bunch of chicken on sale. At first it seemed like a lot of info to squeeze in my brain, but it becomes second nature pretty easily.

First, you must have a pressure canner - not a pressure cooker, not a waterbath canner. In general terms, the science behind a pressure canner is that by putting the canner under pressure (using little weights over a steam vent on a sealed lid), the temperature is able to get up to the 240 degrees necessary to can meat.

There are two ways to can - hot pack (pre-cooking the foods), and raw pack (putting foods in the jar still raw). Check out a canning book from your library and they can run you through that.

There's a book that folks on this site frequently recommend for new canners - the Ball Blue Book. http://www.amazon.com/Ball-Blue-Book-Guide-Preserving/dp/0972753702/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1348281059&sr=1-1&keywords=ball+blue+book (Ball is a company that makes canning jars.) I found my copy of this book at Home Depot, believe it or not, but I've also seen it at Meijers with the canning jars.

The book I recommend as a general quick reference guide is the USDA's Complete Guide to Home Canning and Preserving. http://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Canning-Preserving-Revision/dp/1607962810/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1348279616&sr=8-1&keywords=usda+canning+guide The reason why I prefer that book is because I typically don't can recipes, but rather plain meats or veggies. I want something I can quickly look and see what weight and how much time do I need to can quarts of tomato sauce or pints of chicken.

Basically, you will buy your beef - let's say you find stew meat on sale. I would pre-cook that for two reasons - 1) partially pre-cooking, or browning, your meats before canning tends to give a better flavor and color, and 2) stew meat typically has fat on it and I'd want to cook that off and rinse it before canning. You can have some fat in your canned meats, but I prefer to get as much off as I can.

Let's say you're canning for a family, so you're putting the meat in quart jars. Once cooked, you'll put the beef into the quart jars that you've already sterilized and heated. Then you will add either hot water or hot beef broth. You will check for air bubbles and wipe the rims of the jar to make sure there is nothing on the rim to prevent a good seal. Then you will put on lids that have been sterilized and are sitting in very hot water (the little magnet wand comes in handy) and then the bands get screwed down. You put the jars in the canner, close it up according to the directions for your canner model, and get it all boiling. You will need to vent the steam for 10 minutes to build up pressure, then put the weight on the vent and when it starts to rattle you start timing your batch. I'm just under 1000 ft above sea level, so I would need 10lbs of pressure at 90 minutes for quarts of beef. (I should specify that I'm only familiar with canners that have weight gauges rather than dial gauges.) You would refer to your guide book for what applies to you.

Right now this probably sounds like A LOT of information, but I PROMISE that it does become second nature! You just have to read a basic canning book with information on sterilizing jars and get a handle on that, and on preperation - then just go for it. Just follow your canner's directions step by step, and what seems like a lot of steps and a lot of information will become very simple by the second time you do it.

Then you can start reading all the threads on here where people breaks rules and can things the 'not recommended by the USDA' way!  (dry canning, canning cheese and butter, etc.) Heck, have you seen Coot's cake in a jar? I could go for some of that right now! :2thumb:


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## talob (Sep 16, 2009)

biobacon said:


> Ok you guys got me interested, how does one can beef? I know next to nothing about canning, Ok so I think I understand how canning in general is done but i also understand how an airplane works in general, dosent mean I could build one. I work in food serving and we are pretty anal about meet handling ( Ha Ha Ha). Im thinking you cook the meet first right? Any one know any good links? I was thinking of buying that $10 explore canning kit to give it a try, maybe this is an excuse.


Google canning beef, a ton of youtube videos and a lot info, there.


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## cengasser (Mar 12, 2012)

biobacon said:


> Ok you guys got me interested, how does one can beef? I know next to nothing about canning, Ok so I think I understand how canning in general is done but i also understand how an airplane works in general, dosent mean I could build one. I work in food serving and we are pretty anal about meet handling ( Ha Ha Ha). Im thinking you cook the meet first right? Any one know any good links? I was thinking of buying that $10 explore canning kit to give it a try, maybe this is an excuse.


This thread peeked our interest. We're hooked. I like to watch the U Tube vids and search the net. The other half reads the manual that came with the canner. It does sound complicated, but I'm hear to tell you, it's soooo easy!!!
GO FOR IT!


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

goshengirl, I need a neighbor like you I can learn from hands on how to can....I need to learn pressure canning. My mother did hot bath canning, never veggies, meat or fish, only fruit and jams (tomatoes of course). I need to learn to can meats. 

So here is a question. If I prepare a batch of stew meat, or a beef roast, cooked till mainly done and packed in its own broth, how good will it taste when I open it 4-6 months down the road? I have had some canned meats and thought they were hideous, is it just they were hideous going onto the can? I have had canned chicken and like that just fine, but was not sure about beef. Never had canned pork before either.

I would presume the canned meats are great for soups, stews and casseroles, or anything calling for already broken up meat.

Do they still sell those canned hams? I remember thinking these were great as a kid, then I developed my cooking skills and only had ham from refrigerated, freshly cured hams, and then they seemed gross, but I think if times get tough enough, having those around would be a smart idea.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

goshengirl said:


> I'm just under 1000 ft above sea level, so I would need 10lbs of pressure at 90 minutes for quarts of beef.


Wow... that is along time



HoppeEL4 said:


> Do they still sell those canned hams?


Look in the same section as the tuna and corned beef... our local store sells 12oz and 16 oz, but I haven't seen the large ones in a while.


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## kiteri (Aug 7, 2012)

HoppeEL4 said:


> I would presume the canned meats are great for soups, stews and casseroles, or anything calling for already broken up meat.


One of my favorite uses for my canned beef is to take frozen mixed veggies and toss them in cream of mushroom soup and put in the bottom of a casserole dish, open the jar of meat and crumble across the top of the veggies, then pour Bisquick on top and bake. Easy pot pie!


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

Nice idea on the quick pot pie. I have done something similar with leftover roast, chicken or turkey. I need to get some personal sized pans for that...always like it better when its in smaller pans, and I always control the amount I make so we don't have too many leftovers (sometimes you just can eat only so much and then its wasted..), and...everyone is sure to get enough crust and topping to themselves.


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