# What can be learned from the Japanese Crisis?



## Westfalia

A few days ago one of the most powerful earthquakes in modern time struck outside the eastern shores of Japan. The Earthquake resulted in a massive Tsunami that resulted in a massive loss of lives and massive damage to the infrastructure leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Japan is most likely the most well prepared country on earth to cope with this type of events and had early warning systems in place the loss of life has been great.

This natural disaster would also result in another disaster: damage to the nuclear power plant in the country. The information about surrounding the event has been field with contradicting information, uncertainty and rumors have been circulating. This event has resulted in a combination of a Manmade Disaster and a Natural Disasters. And will most likely become a textbook example of a worst case scenario.

*So what can be learned?*
Only after a few days the shelves in stores are empty and many of the survivors have a hard time getting access to food and water. A relatively small storage of food lasting only a few weeks and a basic storage of water could have made a great difference for many. Some are also homeless and have hard time shielding themselves from the elements as they search for lost friends and family members.

Another thing that can be learned is that everything can be lost without a moment's notice. If anyone living next to the shores had made preparations in their homes they may have lost them if it was hit by the tsunami. Having a comprehensive Every Day Carry or a Get Home Bag may be the only tools that you have available after such a scenario.

The development with the nuclear power plants is yet another example that even systems that are believed to be safe can collapse. There were multiple backup systems in the plants but they have all failed. Of course one can focus on the design of the plants and lay blame on individual persons or the company owning the plants. And this will take place after the crisis over.

Our modern societies are dependent on a number of complex systems that makes our modern lives possible. Electricity, Telecommunications and The Internet is only a few examples. This event is an example of what can happen when just one of these systems collapse for a short time.

Many also blame the media and people in charge for not providing accurate information and misleading the public. It is possible that all information has not been provided but one should most importantly reflect over the Dynamic of a Crisis Situation. A crisis is always a situation when the information about the situation is incomplete. Even with the access to modern communications, video and the internet it is impossible to take in and find all information that is available. This may become clear after a crisis but is never completely clear during a crisis. Decision must be based on incomplete information. The situation affected by an enormous time pressure. There are great values at stake; lives, homes, infrastructure, people's health, economic values and prestige.

Not even the expert on this subject make the same assessment on the situation, we have seen different assessments made by different government agencies from different countries. The recommendations that have gone out by the Japanese have recommended an evacuation zone of 20 km surrounding the Fukushima power plants, but other countries have recommended their citizens to evacuate to a distance of minimum 80km.

*What to do if you feel worried?*
• Stay informed. But understand the information is incomplete, contradictory and will continue to be so for a long period of time. Also remember that the assessments made by experts are based upon incomplete informatin.
• Read up on the subject and learn more about radiation and previous events.
• Learn what agencies in your country / region that measure radiation and where you can find this information.
• Create routines for closing ventilation, securing windows etc. 
• If you live in Japan, increase the distance between yourself and the plants if possible until the situation is under control.

How would a situation of this type be handled in the US? There are extensive plans for handling this type of events in the US and a system for triage and mass casualty events have been developed. You can find the "The RTR Medical Response System for Nuclear and Radiological Mass-Casualty Incidents" here.

*What will happen?*
It is impossible to say how this crisis that is still ongoing will end. If there is a complete meltdown radioactive fallout may affect only the local area. During the Chernobyl meltdown the explosion was very powerful and fire that followed in the graphite would result in severe fallout far away from the plant. The circumstances in these plants see to be very different and the reactor design different from the case of Chernobyl. But there is still no telling with certainty what will follow. The cooling may be restored or the development may continue. What the long term and short term effects will be is impossible say right now. But the problem is Dual. Both the damage from the earthquake and the following tsunami plus the situations in the Japanese Power plants must be handled in what has become of the most complex crisis of our time.

During this crisis we have also seen other reactions like people stocking up on Iodide tablets. Iodide can prevent the body from taking up radioactive Iodide if inhaling or digesting radioactive particles. But it does not offer a complete protection from radiation. Do not TAKE iodide tablets unless this has been ordered by a government agency. Also make sure to follow the instructions if you do, taking too many tablets can result in severe consequences. People with allergies to iodide, taking certain medication and people with certain types of disease should not take Iodide. There are also special considerations for pregnant women, children and other groups. Talk to your doctor if you have bought this type of tablets. This form of tablets are now selling for very high prices on sites like E-Bay, a similar reaction could be seen during the Swine Flu pandemic with Tamiflu. This seems like an overreaction to me, especially for those how live far away from the plants, like people living the US.

By the time I write this some or all of this information may have been proven wrong or incomplete but this is my take on the situation right now.

Information is the most critical aspect during any CBRN event - stay informed.

We have seen a lot of reactions here on the boards as well from people how recommend that one moves topsoil into the garage, stock upon iodide tablets and people how are planning to evacuate from the west coast in the US. These actions seems like clear overreactions to me at this point.

So what do you believe can be learned from the crisis in Japan?


----------



## SaskDame

What have I learned? If each of us were to prepare for our own families X2 for emergencies and expect those emergencies to last for as long as three months, then everyone would have someplace to go even in extreame circumstance.

A man interviewed by local TV, who had a young adult child returning from the quake zone informed us that the city of Sendie was a million people and that approximately 800 homes had been lost to the tsnami. I was online looking at a live Al Jezera feed of Japanese news footage of the earthquake when the tsnami hit. Most buildings had survived the earthquake.

So, even if most people had prepared X2, there would be lots of available supplies for the emergency.


----------



## dahur

"People who don't read the newspaper are uninformed.
People who do read the newspaper are misinformed"

-Mark Twain


----------



## woodsman23

SaskDame Brother please check this out and then decide, i figure the place is a mess but you think you can totally prepare for what happened in japan, you better wake up and check it out first. NO WAY you can be parpared for this nitemare...

Satellite Photos - Japan Before and After Tsunami - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com


----------



## azurevirus

You know, theres so many things to prep for ..I, like probably most here have a list starting from top to bottom with the most likely scenarios in order that we fear will happen..I have no idea how bad this situation in Japan will get but a nuclear mishap was at the bottom of my list..maybe I should start reading my list from bottom to top..seems the more I learn the more ignorant I get


----------



## Westfalia

Azurevirus
I get what you are saying. Making Risk Assessments’ is a complicated process. Normally the Assessments’ are based on the combination of the Consequences an even will have and Probability that the risk may manifest.

Normally the two factors are ranked from 1-5 depending on the severity of the consequences and the probability and then the factors are multiplied in order to get a Risk Factor. This is basically just a tool, its imperfect but can give agencies and persons some idea of how to rank risks. 

Knowing that we don’t know is important, the more you study a field the more you realize that there are questions that no one knows the answer to. I would highly recommend you to read the book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a brilliant piece of work. SHTF and TEOTWAWKI are more or less useless terms that mean nothing and everything. A Black Swan is a much more useful concept. Check it out.


----------



## Bigdog57

The biggest lesson I see for the rest of the world is, "Do NOT rely on Government to save or care for you!"
Some on various boards have called the Japanese Government the 'most prepared for emergencies'....
I see it the other way round.
Their society trains them to always obey authority, unquestioningly. Works for them, for the most part, and makes them one of the most peaceful and crime-free societies.
However,it also means the people do NOT prep for themselves. Once a huge mega-disaster like this hits, the Government's "preparations" are swamped, and the people are now homeless refugees with NO water, food or shelter.
The one thing putting them above the masses of post-Katrina Nawlins is their attitude - I have not yet read of any crime or looting. The police haven't the problems ours had in La.
But as the time of trial lengthens from days to weeks, that can change.


----------



## Westfalia

How well they will handle the situation in a long term situation is hard to tell. I don’t think that the Japanese individual is worse prepared than most people living in the US or Europe. During real crisis situation the resources to deal with the crisis is never enough.

Civil defense programs could make a difference but it is hard to say how much. Even if the majority of the people living in area that was affected by the Tsunami were preppers the risk would be great that they would have lost all their equipment, food etc when the wave hit.


----------



## Tirediron

What we learn is the normal thing people live in high risk areas and get complacent. People build by rivers and whine when flooded, people liveing quake zones and let their all knowing governments build nuke reactors there.
I am really sorry that this happened to these people,but the risks were clearly there. Same risk is taken by millions upon millions of northamericans who rely on grid power to keep them warm. Hopefully that isn't many of the members here. 
Bigdog57 hit the nail on the head DO NOT rely on any organization to resque you. No matter how good those people are they are going to get stretched thin right quick. 
Be prepared to look after your self long term, thats it.:2thumb:


----------

