# Peak oil



## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Just wondering how many people in here are aware of peak oil?


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

most everyone is aware of it, some think its BS and some have cited it as the reason they started prepping.. 

welcome to the forum and good luck


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## Wanderer0101 (Nov 8, 2011)

Peak Oil is rapidly going the way of the Dodo but some still cling to the concept.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Wanderer0101 said:


> Peak Oil is rapidly going the way of the Dodo but some still cling to the concept.


Check out the oil discovery data before you make such wild and WICKED claims.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

*Peak oil truth*



Wanderer0101 said:


> Peak Oil is rapidly going the way of the Dodo but some still cling to the concept.


That is not true at all. The latest study that was conducted on peak oil by the University of Maryland concluded. Peak oil was either NOW or SOON. And it was also INEVITABLE, here are all the new sites that covered the study. I have never seen so many cover any one peak oil study this much. And it was covered by all the major SCIENCE websites. Obviously PEAK OIL IS STILL VERY MUCH ALIVE! And COMING SOON!

Sources
http://www.umdrightnow.umd.edu/news/umd-researchers-address-economic-dangers-peak-oil
http://www.green-energy-news.com/arch/nrgs2013/20130072.html
http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/1530531
http://www.techinvestornews.com/Gre...earchers-address-economic-dangers-of-peak-oil
http://www.sciencenewsline.com/articles/2013101622070054.html
http://my.opera.com/nikefreejjyun/b...earchers-address-economic-dangers-of-peak-oil
http://regator.com/p/262068674/umd_researchers_address_economic_dangers_of_peak_oil/
http://ewallstreeter.com/umd-researchers-address-economic-dangers-of-peak-oil-4796/
http://www.feedthegrid.net/related/285605/umd-researchers-address-economic-dangers-of-39peak-oil39/
http://jerseytribune.com/2013/10/16/umd-researchers-address-economic-dangers-of-peak-oil/
http://www.sciencenewsdaily.org/energy-news/cluster449285826/
http://www.newsfiber.com/p/s/h?v=E8wJVtYLzFng=+htwMFUqh7mk=
http://bd.summit.net/articles/2013/...-identifies-key-industries-for-policy-action/
http://15minutenews.com/article/16714508/umd-researchers-address-economic-dangers-of-peak-oil/
http://oil.fuelspace.com/2013/10/16/umd-researchers-address-economic-dangers-of-peak-oil/
http://www.newsxs.com/en/go/14042107/1583/
http://breakingnewsdir.com/american-science-news/usanews-107993.html
http://sitenews.us/science/52044-um...dangers-of-peaking-global-oil-production.html
http://phys.org/news/2013-10-economic-dangers-peak-oil-team.html
http://www.sciencedaily.com/release...encedaily+(ScienceDaily:+Latest+Science+News)


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## Hooch (Jul 22, 2011)

I read a good book called crossing the rubicon ...have you heard of it cliffhanger??


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Yea I own that book. It was rupperts movie that introduced the idea to me. Honestly I thought after watching collapse that it was a good movie but we had nothing to worry about when it comes to oil. Later while studying earth sciences which is one of my favorite subjects in sciences. I came across a YouTube video from standford titled the future of oil. I watched the lecture and was stunned because it was just like ruppert had stated it. Now I've read almost ten books on collapse and oil. And at least few hundred scientific papers. Peak oil is the main reason I am here. I'm not ur typical prepper I'm a science nerd really


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

for me personally, it just makes sense that a finite resource will eventually run out. Im no expert, but the math makes sense that we are in peak oil right now. And certain military actions indicate at least the possibility that those in power know it and are working to secure the remaining large reserves of easy to get light sweet crude.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

*Finite resource on finite planet, Nope according to our government offical*

How can somebody like this be in charge, We ARE SCREWED POST PEAK OIL

http://rvanews.com/news/transportation-chief-says-oil-supply-unlimited/55970


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## readytogo (Apr 6, 2013)

Did somebody mention, castor oil??????????????


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> Check out the oil discovery data before you make such wild and WICKED claims.


Your chart doesn't make sense to me. How can you predict what will be discovered in the future? Any projection of the future is pure conjecture but since I have been listening to dire predictions from the left for over forty years, that have proven false, I am inclined to disbelieve them now.

Right now we are producing increased amounts of oil even with the feet dragging of the current administration. With the Canadian pipeline, offshore drilling, and ANWR to add to the current fields we are set for 150 years or so and that is only the stuff we know about.

Peak oil doesn't mean a lot anyway. Consider all the coal and natural gas that we currently know of. In WWII Germany turned coal into liquid fuel for their trucks. I'm sure we can improve on seventy year old technology.

We are just starting on technology to recover methane hydrate from the ocean floor. Will that provide a hundred years worth of energy, two hundred, more? Certainly this technology will be perfected well before we run out of oil.

With a good 400 years worth of energy already lined out I going to go out on the limb and say that we will create new technologies in the future.

Today solar and wind are not cost effective in most situations. This will change. Check out the changes in battery technology from just ten years ago.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Peak Oil is one of a few reasons I prep (the others are possible pandemic, food shortage due ot Global warming , which BTW has already started, and the threat of economic malaise via debt.)

I belive Peak Oil will make our living harder and will force some countries to drop out form even trying to feed their people ( food is basically oil as so many things needed to make it are oil based or get transported via oil or distributed).

But I also think that oil shale exploration in the US has pushed it a a few more years into the future.

I recommend to young men to study chemical engineering as this will be a great growth field in 20 years as we will then struggle to make oil from coal to fulfill consumption etc.


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## SlobberToofTigger (Dec 27, 2011)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> How can somebody like this be in charge, We ARE SCREWED POST PEAK OIL
> 
> http://rvanews.com/news/transportation-chief-says-oil-supply-unlimited/55970


To some extent he is correct. As the price of oil goes up, and our consumption is driven down, the number of years of oil we have left rises. So in essence we do have unlimited oil, Just not at our current rate of consumption... Grin.


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## Tweto (Nov 26, 2011)

I have been hearing about peak oil for a decade or more. If all you want to do is educate people on peak oil then I'm sure that the majority here do understand it. Beyond this, I'm not confident that it is a concern to most people. 

Because of new processes to get oil out of the ground the future looks bright for the US. 

I do believe that peak oil is a real thing and that we have already seen some lowered global oil production. To get a real picture of the markets consumption needs to looked at. Over all consumption has been dropping for a few years and many experts are saying that it will continue to drop for another 10.

Just last month I saw that the numbers of teenagers learning to drive has dropped for the first time in more then 30 years. Some of these teenagers are saying that they have no plans on ever learning to drive.

I see that oil dropped to below $100 today. Considering all things the future looks fine as far as oil goes.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> Check out the oil discovery data before you make such wild and WICKED claims.


In the internet age one can find data to support any view they care to subscribe to. I'm not going to take sides or be drawn into a "peak oil" debate. However, a quick search turned up this chart which is completely contrary to the one you posted.

http://www.realclearenergy.org/char...oil_production_continues_to_climb_106381.html



> The bottom red portion represents the 20 top giant oil fields. Production from these peaked in the late 1970s and has barely climbed upward over the ensuing decades. This is probably because Saudi oil fields, which are among the largest, were operating at full capacity until the sorting out that followed the 1973 Oil Embargo. Then OPEC started regulating production and the Saudis reduced their output in order to maintain world prices. They still have spare capacity and are parceling out their oil very abstemiously.
> 
> This has shifted the emphasis to lesser fields. Production from all giant fields (the green sector) has held fairly steady. Instead, the biggest increase in output has come from the blue portion of the chart, which presents all the smaller fields. This has been the main source of increasing world production.
> 
> The suggestion is that while the discovery of major fields has declined precipitously, the output from lesser fields has continued to grow so that it now exceeds the production from the top 20 giants. Improved exploration tools and enhanced methods of recovery - such as the wildly successful fracking - have increased the role of these lesser fields. Of course the output from these mid-level fields may one day taper off - at which point they may be replaced by even more marginal sources such as heavy oil and tar sands. But for now the dire predictions of a plunge in world oil output seem premature.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Caribou said:


> Your chart doesn't make sense to me. How can you predict what will be discovered in the future? Any projection of the future is pure conjecture but since I have been listening to dire predictions from the left for over forty years, that have proven false, I am inclined to disbelieve them now.
> 
> Right now we are producing increased amounts of oil even with the feet dragging of the current administration. With the Canadian pipeline, offshore drilling, and ANWR to add to the current fields we are set for 150 years or so and that is only the stuff we know about.
> 
> ...


Good question the answer is they have 3D sonar and systemic mapping technologies along with satellite 3D mapping. Most people don't realize how much technology the industry has. For example everyone got excited when NASA sent their rover on mars. At the same time BP introduced an oil rig in the gulf of Mexico called mars. The BP oil rig had three times the technology better then what NASA was using, and the oil rig cost twice as much money to create.



Caribou said:


> Your chart doesn't make sense to me. How can you predict what will be discovered in the future? Any projection of the future is pure conjecture but since I have been listening to dire predictions from the left for over forty years, that have proven false, I am inclined to disbelieve them now.
> 
> Right now we are producing increased amounts of oil even with the feet dragging of the current administration. With the Canadian pipeline, offshore drilling, and ANWR to add to the current fields we are set for 150 years or so and that is only the stuff we know about.
> 
> ...


Okay u want to talk alternatives correct. Well let's look at the one of the biggest solar power. Last year out of all the electricity used in America. Solar power produced one total hour of production out of 365 days and 24 hours everyday. See what a joke green technology and all the alternatives are. They are myths that people believe because they don't want to change their habits



SlobberToofTigger said:


> To some extent he is correct. As the price of oil goes up, and our consumption is driven down, the number of years of oil we have left rises. So in essence we do have unlimited oil, Just not at our current rate of consumption... Grin.


I disagree. The reason is I see this example often cited. The reason is for so long the US has been the largest importer of oil. Those days are history, now ASIA is the largest importer. The future DEMAND is going to be driven by the Asian countries. Basically we are not driving the bus anymore they are. Even if the US were to drastically curb our consumption. The Asian economies are still growing and expanding like crazy. And what makes Asia so different is their emerging middle class market. For example when I purchase a new car I trade my old one in. So I am not really adding to the demand that much. In Asia you have millions who are buying their first cars every year. So this requires massive amounts of new oil to consume.



UncleJoe said:


> In the internet age one can find data to support any view they care to subscribe to. I'm not going to take sides or be drawn into a "peak oil" debate. However, a quick search turned up this chart which is completely contrary to the one you posted.
> 
> http://www.realclearenergy.org/char...oil_production_continues_to_climb_106381.html


I am glad you are not going to get into the debate because their IS NO DEBATE at least among people who are educated in Ecology. If you don't believe my chart here is what you should do I suggest.

Go to Google and Search *Worldwide Oil Discoveries Chart* 
Then Click on Images

And just look at all the different charts available. Notice they ALL are the same. The reason is because the oil discoveries have already been calculated every year. PEAK DISCOVERIES happened in 1965 and has been dropping ever since due to geological limitations.

There is NO DEBATE please keep that in mind. There are 49 major oil producing countries. 30 have already peaked and gone into irreversible decline. Its pretty simple to do the math once you figure in our exploding populations. Obviously demand is going to out strip supplies and create an oil crunch. this will send the prices soaring most likely doubling or even possibly tripling. When this happens and its scheduled to most likely occur between now and the next five years. It will send the ENTIRE MIDDLE CLASS into deep poverty. Imagine paying 8 dollars for gallon of gasoline. And 6 dollars for a loaf of bread because every piece of food travels 1500 miles on average in America. When this oil crunch occurs their will be massive global unrest. And widespread anarchy....The main reason is because 95 percent of the public is totally unaware. And this crunch could send the prices soaring within few months time. This price spike will also CRASH our economy. Because for every one penny the gasoline price is increased it subtracts over 600 million dollars in consumer spending from our economy. Once this crunch occurs it will FINISH off our economy and our currency. It will be THREE THINGS CONVERGING AT ONCE aka "Catastrophe theory" like I said this will lead to global civil unrest and worldwide Anarchy. This is the REASON homeland keeps buying so many bullets. They have also been running WAR GAMES that were created to simulate and economic collapse. They are well aware of Peak Oil. They have known about this since the 1970's.

Its all part of the plan...:wave:



Tweto said:


> I have been hearing about peak oil for a decade or more. If all you want to do is educate people on peak oil then I'm sure that the majority here do understand it. Beyond this, I'm not confident that it is a concern to most people.
> 
> Because of new processes to get oil out of the ground the future looks bright for the US.
> 
> ...


Your hallucinating and becoming DELUSIONAL. YOU ARE USING MAKE BELIEVE. BECAUSE YOU NEED A HAPPY ENDING. I am going to go out on limb and guess you are a gods believer as well I bet. Religious people can't stand scientific conclusions that challenge their ASSUMED beliefs. You don't think we are heading right into a brick wall called an oil crunch. Here is some FACTS FOR YOU

Saudi Arabia has already stated they WONT raise production over the next five years. According to the IMF latest study called GEOLOGY VS TECHNOLOGY. They predict oil prices to double over the next 5-7 years. And they already have doubled within the last five years. In 1998 barrel of oil cost 11 dollars. Now 100 dollars. Chevron CEO just stated in the newspapers we are headed towards an energy crunch. Shell's CEO just stated in the newspapers the exact same thing. And today OPEC issued the very same warning. Also Saudi Arabia's SPARE CAPACITY IS DOWN TO ONLY ONE MILLION MORE BARRELS A DAY.

References
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ay-become-oil-importer-by-2030-citigroup-says
http://www.economist.com/node/15065719
http://www.thenational.ae/business/...-oil-price-if-member-countries-cut-investment




http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704409004576146362117313094
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=has-peak-oil-already-happened
http://www.thepelicanpost.org/2011/03/02/shell-study-affirms-peak-oil-theory-3/
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101130103617.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12256.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e964a8a6-2c38-11e3-8b20-00144feab7de.html
http://www.scmp.com/business/commod...-price-heading-us200-chinas-imports-set-surge
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...r-warns-of-oil-crunch-without-investment.html


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## Hooch (Jul 22, 2011)

and india is turning into a huge consumer with asian countries. 

oil has to be cost effective to pull outta the ground too...If it costs more overall to pull it outta the ground, refine it and make it into a usable product, it doesnt matter how big a discovery it is. For example they find a huge deposit somewhere in America but its so damb deep n hard to get at that our current tech isnt capable to resourcing without creating 200.00 a barrel fuel and products it's not worth drilling...So the powers that be blow smoke up everyones ass in the mean time saying yes..yay we have oil..no issues but are not being honest in that it will cant be drlled yet. They need the illusion that the oil industry is strong so everyone is confident in investing in oil energy and not alternatives...

I saw a chart where oil comsumption, the industrial revolution and human population rose in corrolation with one another...it is bound to fall the in corrlation with one another as well....If one isnt on a path to a more simple lifestyle...life will get very hard...


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

*Shell issues warning today*

Looks like they are not doing so well. Surprise , Surprise,

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2013/10/shell-warns-may-meet-production-targets-crude-exports/


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

*Everyone is missing the god damn biggest point*

Everyone I have talked to so far today is totally missing the biggest point of the matter. Its NOT about the fact that we are declining. Its NOT about alternatives or using coal. Because of course we will try them all.

THE REASON WHY PEAK OIL WILL CAUSE WORLDWIDE ANARCHY IS SIMPLE. ITS ALL ABOUT THE PSYCHOLOGICAL AFFECTS. ITS THE "VISION" THAT IS SO IMPORTANT

ITS THE "VISION" OF THE LONG DECLINE THAT LAST FOREVER! NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO YOU ARE DECLINING AND GOING DOWN THE SPIRAL.

WHAT DO YOU THINK WALL STREET WILL DO WHEN THEY FIND OUT WERE ON LONG DECLINE THAT LAST FOREVER?

THEY WILL SELL EVERYTHING OF COURSE BECAUSE WHO WANTS TO INVEST IN COMPANIES THAT WILL BE SLOWLY DECLINING FOREVER!

WHEN PEAK OIL DECLINE HAPPENS SOON IT WILL BE THE END OF ALL BANKS AND ALL GLOBAL SYSTEMS. IT WILL BE A VERY VERY FAST COLLAPSE INTO ANARCHY. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. THE CIA ALREADY STALKED DOWN COLLIN CAMPBELL THE WORLD EXPERT ON PEAK OIL AND ALL THEY WANTED TO KNOW WAS HOW LONG BEFORE THE PUBLIC BECOMES AWARE OF THE "VISION". THEY STATED THE ALSO ARE AWARE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL BE OVER WHEN THIS OCCURS.

THIS IS WHY HOMELAND KEEPS BUYING BULLETS. THEY KNOW BUSH AND CHEANY AND RUMSFIELD AND RICE AND RIDGE ALL CAME FROM THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES. DUH


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## SlobberToofTigger (Dec 27, 2011)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> I disagree. The reason is I see this example often cited. The reason is for so long the US has been the largest importer of oil. Those days are history, now ASIA is the largest importer. The future DEMAND is going to be driven by the Asian countries. Basically we are not driving the bus anymore they are. Even if the US were to drastically curb our consumption. The Asian economies are still growing and expanding like crazy. And what makes Asia so different is their emerging middle class market. For example when I purchase a new car I trade my old one in. So I am not really adding to the demand that much. In Asia you have millions who are buying their first cars every year. So this requires massive amounts of new oil to consume.


Your agreement is irrelevant. Math works. If you take any consumable and its price goes up its consumption eventually goes down. Further along the rise in cost, the price is so high that almost no one can afford to consume the consumable. At that point you have reached your unlimited supply. So the numb-nut in the original reference was correct about unlimited oil but not for the reasons he thought. When the price of oil gets to high for anyone to use it our supply will be virtually unlimited... You and I will be riding our bicycles though.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

SIR RICHARD BRANSON CEO OF VIRGIN CREATED HIS OWN PEAK OIL TASK FORCE OF INDEPENDENT SCIENTIST TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES. THEY CONCLUDED IF THE GOVERNMENTS DIDN'T CREATE PREPAREDNESS PLANS WE WILL FACE TOTAL ANARCHY WHEN THE OIL CRUNCH OCCURS. THE DIRECTOR EVEN WENT ON ABC NEWS IN LONDON AND ANNOUNCED THEIR SHOCKING CONCLUSIONS. THEY PREDICTED BY 2015 AT THE LATEST. AND THE GOVERNMENTS HAVENT DONE SHIT. SO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADED FOR TOTAL WIDESPREAD CHAOS AND ANARCHY. HERE IS THE INTERVIEW


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

*Dr collin campbell issues warning of die off*

DR COLLIN CAMPBELL IS THE WORLD LEADING EXPERT ON THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL. HE CREATED THE ASPO INTERNATIONAL. HIS FIRST PAPER ON THE SUBJECT WAS BACK IN 1969. HE HAS PUBLISHED OVER 150 SCIENTIFIC PAPERS ON PEAK OIL AND GAS. HERE IS HIS WARNING. HE PREDICTS OVER HALF OF THE WORLDS POPULATION WILL DIE ONCE PEAK OIL OCCURS.


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## cowboyhermit (Nov 10, 2012)

Whoa there cliffhanger1983, glad to see you here but I am certain you won't be around long if you keep up your current track. Posting links and videos is great but that doesn't mean anyone needs to believe you and shouting in all caps is just going to tick everyone off.

Saying that there is "No debate" is not a useful statement when people have a different opinion.

For clarity sake, the chart posted by cliffhanger1983 is of oil discoveries, whereas UncleJoe's is of production. 
As far as the original chart, yes it is a prediction but it was made some time ago and despite huge fluctuations the general trend has proven correct.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

It is not that oil is unlimited but that with new fields being found and new technologies coming of age we have oil for a long time to come. By the time we run out of oil there will be something to take its place. 

The reason oil is so high is that the dollar is so low. We are in a period of inflation exasperated by the current administration and his economic policy. Part of that being his refusal to drill proven oil fields or allow the pipeline. In fact he stopped offshore drilling and chased a number of the rigs out of the country. All this and more has reduced in country production and driven up prices also.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Ill put in another 2 cents.
Peak OIl does not mean we will run out it simply means that EVERYTHING will become MUCH more expensive.
Because everything is fossil fuel driven.

As for the one counterpoint that showed a oil production chart via field size I'll give you this:

- Swing production is what protects the global market from price peaks
- Some countries have dropped out of OPEC since the now produce less than they consume
- The only source of swing capability in OPEC is Saudi Arabia
- SA has stated its reveres at 260 Billion bbl for 30 years.
- This is despite no signifcant new reserves found in SA and scores of billions of bbl pumped
- 80% of Saudi oil resevres are in Ghawar field
- As a result Ghawar underpins not just SA's but OPECS and therefore the worlds swing capacity
- Ghawar is dying.
- water cut is showing up at nearly all ghawar wells at some well heads its above 40%
- For those who dont know what it means,.. as a field ages producers inject water to drive up oil this creates water welling up also.
- Ghawar at double digit percents water cuts, means :Ghwar is dying. 
- That does not mean there will be NO oil.. but it means suddenly stuff will be EXPENSIVE including and especially food ( and thats not even considering effects from the rampant desertification on the planet, soon coming to a grocery store near you)


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## crabapple (Jan 1, 2012)

Next 5-7 year....... I will wait & see.
Then we can finish this thread.
I keep thinking they thought the world was coming to an end in the Great Depression with 25% unemployed, then 11% in 1976-77 or so.
We are still here, maps & charts are nice,but if we knew what was happening for sure we all would be millionaire by now.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

cowboyhermit said:


> Whoa there cliffhanger1983, glad to see you here but I am certain you won't be around long if you keep up your current track. Posting links and videos is great but that doesn't mean anyone needs to believe you and shouting in all caps is just going to tick everyone off.
> 
> Saying that there is "No debate" is not a useful statement when people have a different opinion.
> 
> ...


The chart is not a prediction that is a LIE not one word of it is TRUE. The chart has been calculated by every year based on the discoveries that occurred. 
This is why if you go to GOOGLE and SEARCH "worldwide oil discoveries chart" 
Then click IMAGES "Find many charts and they all are the same because every year the discoveries are carefully calculated"

But lets take it one step further. 
Go to GOOGLE SEARCH "WORLDWIDE OIL DISCOVERIES CHART USGS"
Find that even the USGS chart is exactly the same.

The chart I used came from Professor Ken Deyries Phd Princeton.edu


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

Calm down bud. I agee with you, and it still looks like you are acting like a child. 

Keep in mind when posting here, you wont agree with everyone, and they wont always agree with you. State your case calmly and reasonably. No one is required to agree. Then go look around, lots to learn, and theres good, real people here.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Caribou said:


> It is not that oil is unlimited but that with new fields being found and new technologies coming of age we have oil for a long time to come. By the time we run out of oil there will be something to take its place.
> 
> The reason oil is so high is that the dollar is so low. We are in a period of inflation exasperated by the current administration and his economic policy. Part of that being his refusal to drill proven oil fields or allow the pipeline. In fact he stopped offshore drilling and chased a number of the rigs out of the country. All this and more has reduced in country production and driven up prices also.


That is not TRUE at ALL. The reason the dollar is so inflated is because of the HIGH PRICE OF OIL.

The reason the economy can't grow any more is because the OIL PRICE IS TO HIGH FOR GROWTH TO OCCUR. ACCORDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ASSOCIATION

The REASON why the price of oil is so high is because the SUPPLIES HAVE BARELY GROWN AT ALL SINCE 2005. YET THE DEMAND HAS GROWN THROUGH THE ROOF. SINCE 2005 THERE HAS BEEN SHORTAGES IN NET OIL EXPORTS EVERY YEAR. THE SHORTAGES HAVE ALREADY STARTED

notice the HUGE SHORTAGES IN OIL EXPORTS THAT ARE ALREADY HAPPENING?
sourcehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/tomkonrad/2012/04/28/peak-oil-net-exports-arent-everything/


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## *Andi (Nov 8, 2009)

IMO ...

That would be the key word...


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## cowboyhermit (Nov 10, 2012)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> The chart is not a prediction that is a LIE not one word of it is TRUE. The chart has been calculated by every year based on the discoveries that occurred.


Who exactly are you accusing of lying here? I was responding to this part of Caribou's post.



Caribou said:


> Your chart doesn't make sense to me. How can you predict what will be discovered in the future? Any projection of the future is pure conjecture but since I have been listening to dire predictions from the left for over forty years, that have proven false, I am inclined to disbelieve them now.


He is ABSOLUTELY correct that the chart attempts to predict future discoveries. If you need help look for the green area at the end labeled "*future discovery*". This is not a measurement since time travel has yet to be employed by any major geological organization, at least publicly. I was merely stating that it may be a well informed prediction rather than a inaccurate one.


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

cowboyhermit said:


> who exactly are you accusing of lying here? I was responding to this part of caribou's post.
> 
> He is absolutely correct that the chart attempts to predict future discoveries. If you need help look for the green area at the end labeled "*future discovery*". This is not a measurement since time travel has yet to be employed by any major geological organization, at least publicly. I was merely stating that it may be a well informed prediction rather than a inaccurate one.


my fault i thought you were responding to me! I apologize my friend! We are all on this sinking ship together i must not forget

it's midnight on the titanic!


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

BlueZ said:


> Ill put in another 2 cents.
> Peak OIl does not mean we will run out it simply means that EVERYTHING will become MUCH more expensive.
> Because everything is fossil fuel driven.
> 
> ...


:gaah::gaah::gaah::gaah::2thumb::2thumb::2thumb::2thumb::2thumb:

BRAVO! GREAT REASONED ARGUMENT!


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

See what I did to this group now? 

With just a couple charts 

I'm an agent of chaos


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

You should share with the rest of the group...


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

*What will things be like in the decade in America?*



FatTire said:


> You should share with the rest of the group...


The President‟s announcement caused quite a stir, to say the least. The admission that Peak Oil was a real situation surprised many. Usage of oil was already over the production capacity of known and suspected oil reserves. What was truly amazing was the fact that there was no announcement of a plan to deal with the fact. So local political jurisdictions, corporations, businesses, private groups, and individuals began making their own plans.
What the oil companies did, without exception, was immediately triple prices from crude on up, and reduce production. The theory behind it was that the high prices and lower availability would lengthen significantly the time frame that petroleum products would be available in the future.

It didn‟t trickle down, it flooded down. Pump prices jumped to five times the price from the previous day. Independent trucking operations came to a near standstill and commercial trucking firms upped the delivery prices by two-hundred percent and added a one-dollar per mile fuel surtax to boot. Railroad freight rates tripled. Commercial aviation came to a near halt, though general aviation remained fairly stable, despite the huge price increase of avgas.

When transportation came to a near halt, riots broke out over the higher fuel prices, the attendant lack of food deliveries, and extremely high prices of what food was available. Going elsewhere to get the food didn‟t work for most because, even with the high price, the fuel for others wasn‟t going anywhere because it cost the carriers too much to run. A vicious circle ensued. The economy came crashing down.
Since the US tended to try diplomacy first, and action later, if ever, on most trade items, the attempts to secure additional supplies of crude oil overseas ran into the problem of needing to fight allies, not just third-world countries.
Japan, China, Germany, France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain all sent troops to various oil producing nations and simply took over the fields, facing little opposition from the locals in the face of their overwhelming, it is going to happen no matter what, attitude. The US found itself needing to fight the rest of NATO on the end of a long, expensive, supply line. The US backed off from the fight and bit the bullet. Nowhere in the US and its territories was safe from exploratory and production drilling for oil.

The Great Britain cut off all exports, as did Russia, including natural gas to Europe. India, too, cut off exports. It didn‟t take China long to take control of India‟s oil fields, with the threat of nuclear war with India if India tried to use the nuclear option to take the fields back.
Japan, as she had during World War II, took over the Malaysian oil production fields. It was only a matter of time before Japan needed to acquire more than Malaysia could provide, but went no further during the start of the crisis.
The announcement came just after Thanksgiving, that is, as winter in the Northern Hemisphere was approaching. By spring two billion people were dead from the effects of the

winter weather without heat, and starvation because of lost production and inability to ship what was produced.
When the winter in the Southern Hemisphere ended almost a year later, another two billion were dead of freezing, starving, disease, and violence over the other three causes of death.
Another year and the population of the world had fallen from over six billion to less than seven-hundred-million. The bulk of those were living between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. Of those, most were living the same life they had led before the admission by the US President that Peak Oil was a reality. A rural, hand to mouth existence where winters were mild or non existent and there was enough rainfall that one person could grow enough food for a family on a small piece of land.
Europe became feudal once again, with the oil from foreign holdings controlled by a few.

Russia, though it didn‟t fall back into communism, invaded and took control of all of the former Soviet Union nations, except for Germany. Russia then closed its borders, as did almost every nation that had control of any significant amount of the oil remaining in the earth.
Australia was a self-sustaining place and wanted little to do with anyone else. They kept a close eye on Japan, expecting a move from them at some point in time to take the resources they needed from Australia.
China, in the process of closing its borders expanded them first to lock in the oil resources of the South East Asia Mainland and sub continent. Its troops were spread too thin to take on the Japanese for the control of Malaysia, Micronesia, and Oceania, minus Australia, for the moment.
Southern Africa and Southern South America were sparsely populated after the die off, and under the control of European nations. The rest of Central and South America came under Brazilian control.

The rest of Africa and the Middle East were divided once again into colonies such as those that had existed in the eighteenth, nineteenth, and early twentieth centuries, with the former British colonial activities split between the other European Colonial powers.
The remaining people in most of the industrialized world were able to slide back into a 1890‟s to 1920‟s lifestyle, where oil was used, but in much smaller amounts.

The country hardest hit by the events in the two years after the announcement was the United States. If the US had acted earlier, it might have taken the Mexican oil fields, but again it tried diplomacy. The refusal of Mexico to continue to export oil to the US prompted Congress to pass legislation early on to send most of the illegal immigrants back to their home nations.
The laws were aimed primarily at Mexico, but it was across the immigration board and illegals, of whatever nationality, were sent packing during the first year after the announcement.

It didn‟t matter much after that. The will was no longer there to have any foreign activities. Not even in Mexico.
The US had been developed and populated at a time when technology was on an upward curve of development. US citizens didn‟t have a history without technology. It was much harder for them to go back to a lifestyle of an earlier time that most of the rest of the industrialized world did.
What happened was a very sharp split between those that had access to oil supplies and the wherewithal to exploit them and those that didn‟t. Most of the major refineries in the US lay idle, if not burned beyond use by rioters. Even if they had crude available to them, they couldn‟t run, due to lack of electrical power to operate.

The national grid was down, and only areas with a local power plant using local resources for production had electrical power. Hydroelectric, geothermal, and wind-powered plants were the sources of electricity. Not a single nuclear power plant retained enough personnel to operate. All were either shut down normally, or scrammed safely automatically when the first anomaly in the operation occurred without a human to intervene.
There was plenty of coal available. The railroads weren‟t running so it stayed where it was. Only where a coal-fired power plant was at or within a few miles of the coal source, did it run.

Many American cities become wastelands, mined for items of use or worth, but having little or no population of their own. Others, with local power sources continued to function, but only if there was a viable rural farming community close enough to provide food for those within the city environs.
Some of the localities were very cooperative, between the urban, suburban, and rural areas. Others, were not so cooperative, despite each needing what the other could provide. Food for the cities and manufactured goods for the rural areas.

And then there were those that had seen the future before it happened and prepared for the events that occurred. Mostly rural enclaves of families, friends, and church members, set up to be as self-sufficient as possible. And there were others that adapted rapidly to the situation and learned that it was sometimes easier to take at gunpoint than it was to farm for food or work for anything else they wanted.
A few enterprising people, who also saw the handwriting on the wall, set themselves up to continue civilization in a manner they believed best for themselves and everyone else. Of course, there were also those unaffiliated people that prepared or adapted to the post easy oil world in unique ways. The story of Leonard Dobbs‟ post Peak Oil life perhaps best illustrates many of the results of the change from plentiful oil to scarce oil in the United States.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> That is not TRUE at ALL. The reason the dollar is so inflated is because of the HIGH PRICE OF OIL.
> 
> The reason the economy can't grow any more is because the OIL PRICE IS TO HIGH FOR GROWTH TO OCCUR. ACCORDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ASSOCIATION
> 
> ...


Yawn!


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Yawn! I remember doing a report back in the late 60's in High School about the cars of the future and how they'd be powered because we'd be out of oil within ten years at most. What a crock! Being young and naïve I had a firm faith in "science." A half a century later I'm not as quick to jump on the science bandwagon. Science is money driven like most other businesses. When "scientists" make scary claims they get lots of money to "research" the subject and make even more scary claims to make even more money "researching." They have a tremendous amount at stake here. Without the "sky is falling" predictions they don't get funding and notoriety. Without the funding, research and resultant notoriety they are out of business. Universities pay for reputation. Many of their noted professors never darken a classroom! It's a self-sustaining process that often exposes them as total idiots.

I once had a set of encyclopedias published in the 1940's. It was great to read through. Do you have any idea what scientists taught regarding the sun? Look it up! You should have read the sections on Hitler and Germany as the academic elite saw them in the early years leading up to WW2. The truth is that "science" and scientific "fact" changes as new knowledge is gained. It's an evolving process and because it's an evolving process what is "known" is constantly being revised as new knowledge is gained.

That doesn't mean that all scientific research is bogus or that the "research" is not sincere. Scientists are as closed minded as most other people and like most other close minded people they are adamant that their mind is not closed. I don't often question the sincerity of their work but I do question their underlying assumptions and world view and speculate on how that clouds their results.

And incidentally, your assertion that the price of oil is the cause of the economic problems we face shows how incredibly ignorant you are of economics.

So, have fun in your naiveté. Perhaps as you grow older you'll have a more balanced understanding of how things work in the real world and you won't be quite as trusting or gullible.

Cheers,

Steve


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

The federal government and state governments have restricted supply. The Fed is destroying the dollar. Between the two, gas will never be below $2 a gallon again. Other than that, yes, oil has a finite supply but we still have proven reserves to last for hundreds of years.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

BillS said:


> The federal government and state governments have restricted supply. The Fed is destroying the dollar. Between the two, gas will never be below $2 a gallon again. Other than that, yes, oil has a finite supply but we still have proven reserves to last for hundreds of years.


This is not a mathematical fact, Sir


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

If supply truly were short, The federal government would indeed step in and restrict the supply. 

Priority would go to Military first, then farmers, then grocery haulers. Everyone else would get rationing coupons. 

Diesel for railroads and farm/agriculture/food will always be available because of the necessity for food. If you make a living hauling plastic toys and crap across the country, you would probably be out of a job. I guarnandamntee you Customs would step in and make sure the priority at the shipping docks would be for essential needs first, and rubber duckies last.

Oil fuels won't go away, but it will eventually become so expensive only those in true need of it, and the rich, will be able to buy it.


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## Wanderer0101 (Nov 8, 2011)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> Check out the oil discovery data before you make such wild and WICKED claims.


I've been in the energy business for 39 years. I am quite familiar with Mr. King Hubbert's theory and how flawed it is being shown to be, especially if you think in terms of fuel for transportation, chemical feed stocks and electricity production rather than just the term "oil". Anyone that has even a cursory knowledge of the business and what has happened since Hubbert knows that a whole lot things have happened that he was completely clueless about. Peak Oil is just another one of the scare mongering red herrings that distract people from the things they should really be concerned about.

People like you almost completely occupy the area of wild and wicked claims as well as a very shallow section of the gene pool.


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## Wanderer0101 (Nov 8, 2011)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> See what I did to this group now?
> 
> With just a couple charts
> 
> I'm an agent of chaos


Classic delusion. Off your meds I guess.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Unbelievable the amount of name calling in this thread.

While cliffhanger is perhaps too high strung I am especially dissapointed by the higher post count members.

Some pertinent reading:
http://www.gasandoil.com/


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

BlueZ said:


> Unbelievable the amount of name calling in this thread.
> 
> While cliffhanger is perhaps too high strung _*I am especially dissapointed by the higher post count members.*_
> 
> ...


Oh man! Now I probably won't be able to sleep tonight!


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Wanderer0101 said:


> I've been in the energy business for 39 years. I am quite familiar with Mr. King Hubbert's theory and how flawed it is being shown to be, especially if you think in terms of fuel for transportation, chemical feed stocks and electricity production rather than just the term "oil". Anyone that has even a cursory knowledge of the business and what has happened since Hubbert knows that a whole lot things have happened that he was completely clueless about. Peak Oil is just another one of the scare mongering red herrings that distract people from the things they should really be concerned about.
> 
> People like you almost completely occupy the area of wild and wicked claims as well as a very shallow section of the gene pool.


People do not be fooled by idiots like this gentlemen. Notice he states his experience this is to assert he is an AUTHORITY FIGURE. Which is to mislead you into thinking he knows what he is talking about. First off PEAK OIL ISN'T A THEORY. Peak oil is a NUMBER. Its the maxim rate of worldwide production. Thats it. No theory. Also out of the major 49 oil exporting countries. 30 have already peaked and gone into irreversible declines. Its happened 30 times but yet its some THEORY as the ignorant claim. Also COLLIN CAMPBELL has written scientific papers about peak oil since 1969. He has published over 150 scientific PEER REVIEWED papers on peak oil. Also this gentlemen does not GIVE ANY EVIDENCE OR SOURCES of SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS to SUPPORT HIS DEBUNKING ARGUMENT. NO PROOF AT ALL. He is just a WEAK MINDED COWARD WHO USES "MAKE BELIEVE" TO ASSUME CONCLUSIONS.

Here is a list of over 1500 scientific references from Dr Collin Campbell world expert and actual authority on the issue.

http://books.google.com/books?id=tX...age&q=colin campbell atlas references&f=false


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## PipLogan (Apr 25, 2011)

cliffhanger1983 said:


> People do not be fooled by idiots like this gentlemen. Notice he states his experience this is to assert he is an AUTHORITY FIGURE. Which is to mislead you into thinking he knows what he is talking about. First off PEAK OIL ISN'T A THEORY. Peak oil is a NUMBER. Its the maxim rate of worldwide production. Thats it. No theory. Also out of the major 49 oil exporting countries. 30 have already peaked and gone into irreversible declines. Its happened 30 times but yet its some THEORY as the ignorant claim. Also COLLIN CAMPBELL has written scientific papers about peak oil since 1969. He has published over 150 scientific PEER REVIEWED papers on peak oil. Also this gentlemen does not GIVE ANY EVIDENCE OR SOURCES of SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS to SUPPORT HIS DEBUNKING ARGUMENT. NO PROOF AT ALL. He is just a WEAK MINDED COWARD WHO USES "MAKE BELIEVE" TO ASSUME CONCLUSIONS.
> 
> Here is a list of over 1500 scientific references from Dr Collin Campbell world expert and actual authority on the issue.
> 
> http://books.google.com/books?id=tX5KAAAAQBAJ&pg=PA389&lpg=PA389&dq=colin+campbell+atlas+references&source=bl&ots=5IrezDb0KN&sig=63hfAjPm_RxFTSYqhXZUWsHWgZQ&hl=en&sa=X&ei=HyBnUvWJBKKTyQH6y4CoDw&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=colin%20campbell%20atlas%20references&f=false


So I don't mean to poke the bear but could someone explain peak oil to me in lamens terms?


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

PipLogan said:


> So I don't mean to poke the bear but could someone explain peak oil to me in lamens terms?


What you should do is listen to the worldwide expert and leading authority. 
Dr Collin Campbell.

Here is his youtube channel "Oil education"
Just GOOGLE THE TERM 
*PEAK OIL REFERENCES* FIND MANY SCIENTIFIC SOURCES AND PAPERS

http://www.youtube.com/user/OilEducationTV

The end is near! ENJOY!


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## cliffhanger1983 (Oct 21, 2013)

Wanderer0101 said:


> Classic delusion. Off your meds I guess.


Just wait till you are turned into ZOMBIE FOOD Well see who gets the last laugh


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

This thread is going nowhere. Points are made on both sides. Folks can decide base on the info already presented. We're done here. Do NOT start another peak oil thread.


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