# If Technology Fails, Just How Long Are Your Long Range Plans?



## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-p...t-how-long-are-your-long-range-plans_04072012

When the Roman Empire died , the technology and living standard that had spread around Europe slowly died with them. Things such as paved roads, sanitation and aqua ducts to carry fresh water to cities were forgotten over the generations and men reverted to simpler forms of technology. This reversion led to the dark ages. After many generations the people relearned some of the forgotten technologies and advanced once again. There was no global cataclysm that brought about this reversion , it just happened because the knowledge of how the technology worked decayed along with the Romans and the average man did not understand the significance of these technologies. Eventually , future generations were ignorant of these technologies that once existed.

Today we are blessed with truly unbelievable technology that holds many benefits for man. Almost everyone has a cell phone or computer , but do any of those people actually know how these things work? A lot of people can build a wood stove from scratch but how many can build a microwave oven or know exactly how a gas oven works? Our technology is dependent on simple machines that create parts for other more complex machines that create parts for machines that can make a computer chip. With each layer of technology , fewer and fewer people actually know how to recreate it from scratch. In our society it may not be necessary to know how to fix your own car or how a phone works because there is always someone else that knows the secrets of these devices. But , what if these people that hold the keys to our knowledge suddenly ceased to exist or if the technology somehow broke and they could not fix it?

It is not unthinkable that a natural or manmade event could create a situation where our technology is damaged or destroyed beyond our ability to repair or recreate it from scratch. If all of our computer chips were destroyed along with the complex machines that make them, how long would it take us to recreate that technology and under what conditions would we be working? How many people in the world have the knowledge to do that? Any event that would destroy our technology would create chaos around the world. It's not unreasonable to think that this chaos would prevent those with the knowledge from reconstituting our technology base in a timely manner. The longer it remains off line , the harder it will be to recreate it. This time lag could be months , years or generations. As time passes it is less likely that information will be passed on to the next generation to be reconstructed. This is how a society can devolve into a dark age. If information is not passed on it will eventually be lost to the ages.

On a local level , if all of your conveniences were lost , how long would it take you to recreate them from scratch? Could you even do it? Even if you can make fuel for your vehicle , can you make the lubricants to keep it going or the bearings for the wheels to keep them turning? If an event took away most of our machines many would be able to rig up new machines from the parts to use for a while but what happens when these parts wear out? Even if you had a block of copper , and knew how to melt it , do you know how to turn it into a long piece of wire? A simple piece of wire seems pretty simple until you think about it that way.

When we are thrown back on our own resources , we are dependent on the knowledge we have to solve problems. If you needed to reestablish communications with another town with technology that you had to build , what would you do? The simplest form of communication over a distance is light or hand signals but what if you could not see the next town on a direct line of sight? The simplest device you could build in electrical terms is a telegraph set. Could you build the keys , wire and batteries from scratch? Could you build a wagon from scratch to transport goods? The loss of technology would cause a regression to what we are capable of building ourselves.

It is a feeling in the prepper community that you are never finished preparing for disaster. The possible collapse of our technology is the reason for this. With the vast amount of knowledge available to us it is almost impossible for any one person to know it all. This is why it is important to have a good reference library that you can refer to in times of need. I have a set of reference books that tell me how to build a charcoal foundry and from there to produce every part of several basic machining tools minus the electric motor. If I had to , I have the ability to build a small machine shop , powered by alternate means , to produce parts to build other machines. Even if I never build these things , the knowledge is there to pass down to the next generation so it is not forgotten. This could be the difference between living in a new dark age or just having a reduced standard of living for a few generations. I study obsolete technology because it is the basis of all of the technology we have today. It provides me with the basics to start the rebuilding process should it ever be necessary. Many have a plan to survive food disruptions and civil breakdown but how far out do those plans go? At some point , things will stabilize and the rebuilding will begin. Anyone that feels the need to prepare must also feel that they have a duty to the future to insure the continuation of our society. Any skills you have that can be passed on should be and for those you don't have you should at least have books to pass on that knowledge. Our society cannot go on without a long range plan to at least provide the basics of human needs. Future generations depend on the information that we hand down to them, and lately we haven't been doing a very good job of it.

Tom Chatham is the author of the newly released book The American Dream Lost - Economic Survival Strategy for a New Paradigm.


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## goatlady (Nov 7, 2011)

Knowing "how" to build/rebuild all those "conveniences" is fine and dandy as long as there is power to run them! If all the chips got fried in all those conveniences, all the chips running and regulating electrical power are also fried. One would also need the raw materials handy to do the rebuilding also. He is also apparently overlooking the salvage value of existing parts available now days that were not available long ago. Copper wire comes to mind right off the bat as there are millions of miles of copper wire in existance already, no need to have to re-invent it in a hurry.


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

I'm good for 6 months.I can improvise past that.


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## md1911 (Feb 9, 2012)

Unclejoe. I defenantly agree with passing knoledge on to younger generations. Very very inportant. Rebuilding our lifestyle would be usefull. If all electronics were destroyed. I would think it would take. Several generations to get back to were we are today. A lot of people don't even know how electricity is made. Just flip the switch. But that's the same in all fields of tecnology. 
My personal plans are how to farm and raise animals like they did in the 1800's. This along with preperations, and survival skills will help my family make it thru whatever happens. 
the infestructure. Food and water. I know how to make electricity from scratch. I know how steam engins worked. I am a good farm mechanic. Lol. However I deffenantly do not know everything.


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## DKRinAK (Nov 21, 2011)

The 'technology' of the Romans dies out, in part, for a lack of the surplus labor and wealth to build new (whatever) or even repair the existing.

A society (or Nation) living hand to mouth cannot afford to 'waste' the time on education of its young people, then things go downhill even faster. Certainly, in the winter, you can teach the kiddos how to read, but much of what passes for literature these days would be a mystery to a new learner after the disaster.

I'm worried less about chips, but how do you make steel or cast iron?

As far as long range plans, the schools here are so crappy, I work with my grandchildren to ensure they are at least literate and numerate by the time they finish primary school. 

With modern tech gone, so is modern medicine, so your life expectancy will be back to 55 to 65 years. 

The future is misty, as it always has been.


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## TheAnt (Jun 7, 2011)

*VERY* interesting article! You can definitely see how a catastrophic event could cause the societys of the world to fall into a "dark age" of sorts. However I believe the writer of the article missed a *HUGE* point. The fall of Rome did certainly lead to the dark ages but the main reason that facilitated the decline was that there was no security to keep marauders from wrecking the technological progress made by the Romans after their fall.

Now, if you look at the advance of technology there was a *HUGE* spike in technological advantage after the colonies in the new world won their independance. The main reason for this was *FREEDOM*! When folks are free to risk their fortunes on new technology and free to reap the rewards of a successful technology there is *inevitable technological advancement*. For years the US has been at the forefront of technology and it was not because Americans were smarter... its because they were FREE!

Certainly over the past few decades we Americans have lost many of our freedoms to the politicians and if you follow the current arc of history we will see further declines in our freedoms unless the American people demand their freedom back. The result of this will be less technological advances and even the very real possibility of technological decline.

If you couple this decline in our freedoms with the prospect of a catastrophic event (an event could be one of many kinds both manmade and natural) you will likely see a HUGE decrease in both security and freedom which will practically necessitate a correspondingly huge decline in technology. The more enslaved we become and the less secure we are from those that would take away our fortunes the less likely we will be to risk those fortunes on technological advances.

Simply put, *FREEDOM* is like miracle grow for the inventive mind and security encourages those with an inventive mind to risk their fortunes to advance technology.


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## efbjr (Oct 20, 2008)

*Everything rots...eventually!*

What I mean by: "Everything rots..." is that unless there is a concerted effort to preserve recorded knowledge, it will eventually, literally rot away!

Decomposition is the enemy of all recording media. Take a typical book, even if printed on acid-free paper, if not kept in a dry, climate-controlled area, will turn to mush,or dust. Other media, such as magnetic tape, hard drives and CD/DVDs eventually age due to the breakdown of the chemicals in the plastics that they are made from, or due to mechanical failure (ever have a hard drive crash? )

A present-day example: NASA is unable to retrieve a lot of data gathered from early space probes due to the fact that the information was recorded on old-style magnetic tape. To access the information, they had to rebuild some of the older tape decks that had broken down, and then found out that many of the tapes had deteriorated to the point that the information they contained was not retrievable.

How best to preserve knowledge? I think that a return to the Master Craftsmen-Apprentice model will re-establish itself. Human memory, imperfect as it can be, is probably the best way to preserve knowledge for the use of future generations. To come under the tutelage of a Master Craftsman (or Woman), and to trained in the use of the knowledge they carried in their head, was a mark of prestige in former times, and many families urged, if not forced, their sons and daughters to do so. They knew that it was a way to earn a decent living and be of benefit to the family, and the entire community.

Unlike today, when it can be a battle to tear kids away from their I-Phones, PCs, MP3 players, TVs, and whatever, and do their homework, if an apprentice didn't want to work, or otherwise go with the program,  they were invited to leave and not let the door hit them in the butt on the way out!  There were plenty of others willing to step in and take their place! :wave:

Train your kids in the basics: Reading, 'Riting, 'Rithmetic.. Teach them how to work and survive. Encourage them to study advanced topics in the fields that interest them and which will benefit them, and the community, in a world where the hi-tech, and even a lot of the low-tech stuff is no longer available, and encourage them to pass that knowledge on to others.


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## jbillh (Mar 4, 2011)

Hi UncleJoe,

You make some great points!

I have said for a long time now that if everything were suddenly gone I'd be in the stone age! OK, maybe the bronze age but not much further. If I were all alone but had all natural resources available like ores and such I'd probably work out some simple metal tools and pottery etc. Microchips? I think NOT! ;-)

"Mad Max" really comes to mind and I think within weeks or months we would all start seeing strange versions of vehicles and fuel stills and other energy converting/generating devices appearing everywhere.

After having spent some time with Amish folks I have many times thought "I could enjoy the off the grid lifestyle but I'd really want my internet!" Of course we'd all adjust but it would be a real loss and probably a net gain in quality family time!

All the Best,


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

there is a pile of truth in that article, most don't bother with indepth information any more, it is all about speaking geek or what ever with only enough knowledge to carry on a conversation with some one of the same depth of knowledge. Computers help with information management, but they have also removed a lot of people from the front lines of repair and manufacture. I personally have the knowledge and skills to be able to continue to produce food and repair things, repair and food production will be far more valuable after shtf. and as the article said many people don't have the knowledge or patience required to maintain infrastructure so it will definately go "backwards" and a lot harder and faster than at the end of the Roman empire


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Perhaps it's time to brush up on some 19th century skills?


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## Toffee (Mar 13, 2012)

What are some of the reference books that you've collected?
I have some home repair, gardening, art, etc. one I really like is Back To Basics.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

Toffee said:


> What are some of the reference books that you've collected?
> I have some home repair, gardening, art, etc. one I really like is Back To Basics.


_Back to Basics _is one of the best. The _Foxfire_ books/series are another great addition. _Backwoodsman_ magazine is good as well.


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

I was first exposed to this concept by a Joe Rogan stand up comedy bit, wherein he asked all the 'people who think they're so smart' (I was one) 
"if I drop you on a deserted island, how long before you can send me an email?"

Now I'm an electrician, and if I can find the parts, I can build a system to generate, store, distribute, and utilize electricity... But I couldn't manufacture those parts. So I'm prepping to not need them, and I'm learning just how much I don't know


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## lefty (Sep 29, 2011)

The question is after whatever SHTF event, there will be a big die off/ violent collapse which could last from a couple months to a couple years. Depending on how destructive things get, we could see anything from rural 1880's to early 1900's lifestyle. +1 on the firefox books, a must read


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## Diego2112 (Aug 18, 2010)

One reason I'm so very glad I'm a Steampunk. We make it a bit of a point to work with older tech when we can, preferring (GASP-E-POP!) steam to other forms of power, when applicable. Granted, boilers are a dangerous lot to mess with if you don't know what you're doing-'splosions are... Magnificent!

In a nutshell, when the :shtf: and tech goes down the tubes, my CURRENT preps will get me a good 6 months to 1 year. After that, I hope to have SOMETHING in place to take care of whatever tech I would need (water wheels, boiler, etc).

I'm pretty handy with anvil and hammer-my wife's a fair hand with a needle (my mum is better, and several people on my trade route know their way around buck skinning). My sister-in-law makes soap, and my da... Well, let's just say he's the Master of All Masters-he is more than able to build anything for any application we/us could need.

In a nutshell, I'm more than ready.


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

A situation like that be why I still practice an learn the old ways. Some a this stuff be dyin off an folks aren't willin ta learn it no more. Say, start a fire but ya ain't got a lighter, match er anythin like that. I know several ways ta start a fire without them modern inventions.

Can I build a computer chip? Nope, don't wan't ta either. I'll be more interested in keepin the family safe an fed. Now, I got lots a books on carpentry an basic how to type stuff. We've always fixed stuff our self an the boys have learned that to. 

We preserve allota our own foods without the need fer refrigeration. I can build ya any type a cooler er freezer ya wan't but that takes power an were not gonna have unlimited amounts like we do now. There won't be the folks round to build an operate the massive plants. Yeah, we can generate our own fer quite a spell, but sooner er later, were gonna be cookin on a fire an dependin on it fer light.

Civilization has rebuilt itself before, will take a spell, but it would do it again. There will always be folks who can teach the children, not everbody can work the fields, hunt er such, but they will still have value.

I keep allota books includin a good encyclopedia set cause the computers ain't gonna work no more.


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## goatlady (Nov 7, 2011)

Right on, OCH. There will always be a place by the fire for us older folks with all our stories about how things are/were done! Better for me is to be doing many things that way now - then when there is no choice it won't be such a shock/transition. I have been lucky to be able to find manual substitutes for all my kitchen "appliances" and most of my shop tools also and using them when needed usually takes no more time than using the plug-in stuff.


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

I love old folks. : D


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

The older generation be a wealth a knowledge what we need ta take advantage of cause when it's gone it gonna be gone.

I learned alot from my mother an dad, grandpa to. He was a true hillbilly an had a knowledge a the country side what we could only dream of. I try an pass as much a this onta my grand children as I can. I wan't them ta understand there heritage an have the knowledge what can get em through a sticky time.


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

Y'all keep it comin cause I'm listenin. With six kids and little money, my parents grew food and kept us healthy. I remember taking one whole clove of garlic every night because my Mom made us. Were mostly vegitarians and never got sick. When I first went to a friends house I got real sick from the Oreos and red koolaid snack I was givin. Never had that before 10yo. So keep it coming!


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

md1911 said:


> I defenantly agree with passing knoledge on to younger generations. Very very inportant.


And to me, that was the main point of the essay. Pass on what you know to the next generation.

Some of the old timers here have heard this before but I'm going to share it again. 
My grandparents were children of the last Great Depression. Pop-Pop had a HUGE garden and Nana canned everything that wasn't eaten fresh. He passed the gardening bug on to me but I never bothered with all that canning stuff. That was for OLD people. Nana died in 1998. Pop-Pop moved in with his oldest son and the house was cleaned out and sold. ALL of the canning equipment was thrown in a dumpster; canners, kettles, hundreds of jars both full and empty- gone. :gaah: Nobody in the family wanted it.

Fast forward to 2007. 
My eyes started to clear and I began to realize just how fragile our system was. I decided I wasn't going to get caught my pants down. It was time to learn to preserve our own food. It sure would have been nice to be able to call Nana and ask questions but alas, that lifetime worth of knowledge was gone. Of course, I did learn. With the help of the internet and some books, I'm now the one with hundreds of jars of fresh garden produce. I guess that means I'm old now.  There were a lot of mistakes along this journey, mistakes that may have been avoided if I had paid attention and learned from her experience.

Now lets suppose there is no internet from which to gather all that information. What happens now? 
Learn from the previous generations mistakes while they are still hear to teach us and then pass it on to the next. That is a true long range plan.


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## torqx (Mar 30, 2012)

I was on another site and it posed a similar question but much more basic. How many people can make a simple number 2 pencil? He then went on to list the places all the little parts came from and the processes to put it all into a #2 pencil. Now I can fix a car build a house rebuild generators smith basic gun parts run heavy equipment and any other number of skill sets I've picked up over the years in civilian and military (USAF) service. But could I make 1 #2 pencil no and it's not just about making it the thing am I going to be able to get to Paraguay or where ever the basic lead graphite is mined? That's an example I don't know if it's even mined or where. travel as we know it will be completely changed so materials and availability will change will #2 pencils be around idk I bet people will be writing a whole lot more so I'd bet not for long


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## md1911 (Feb 9, 2012)

I feel your pain I wish I would have paid more attention to my grandparents. Grandpa was born in 1910 and grandma was born in 1915 they both new so much. I learned a little but now that their gone I relize what I have missed.


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## UncleJoe (Jan 11, 2009)

md1911 said:


> Grandpa was born in 1910 and grandma was born in 1915


Yeah, mine were 1916 and 1918. Pop-Pop left us in 2007.


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## md1911 (Feb 9, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> Yeah, mine were 1916 and 1918. Pop-Pop left us in 2007.


Grandma died in 2003. Grandpa in 2011. Just 4 days before his b-day.


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## FatTire (Mar 20, 2012)

I don't have any seasoned citizens to rely on, so I'm building a library and trying out the stuff from books and the net, so I'll actualy know how to do stuff. This is my whole reason for prepping, to be able to build a long term sustainable lifestyle


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

torqx said:


> I was on another site and it posed a similar question but much more basic. How many people can make a simple number 2 pencil? He then went on to list the places all the little parts came from and the processes to put it all into a #2 pencil. Now I can fix a car build a house rebuild generators smith basic gun parts run heavy equipment and any other number of skill sets I've picked up over the years in civilian and military (USAF) service. But could I make 1 #2 pencil no and it's not just about making it the thing am I going to be able to get to Paraguay or where ever the basic lead graphite is mined? That's an example I don't know if it's even mined or where. travel as we know it will be completely changed so materials and availability will change will #2 pencils be around idk I bet people will be writing a whole lot more so I'd bet not for long


Just for informational purposes ... It's rumored that soldiers in the Revolutionary war pounded lead musket balls into a cylinder with a point and used them to write letters to home. Hence the "lead" pencil (which you know does not use lead). It does work ... I've tried it ... but it's not as good as a graphite pencil.

Quill pens are very easy to make and ink can be made from a number of sources. The easiest way to get ink is to find some Shaggy Mane mushrooms which are also known as ink cap mushrooms. Put them in a jar and as they decompose they turn into black ink. It actually works pretty good.

The biggest issue nowadays is finding people who can write legibly. The only ones I know of with good penmanship are cops. (Something about all the reports they have to fill out for court cases, etc.) :dunno:


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## md1911 (Feb 9, 2012)

mosquitomountainman said:


> Just for informational purposes ... It's rumored that soldiers in the Revolutionary war pounded lead musket balls into a cylinder with a point and used them to write letters to home. Hence the "lead" pencil (which you know does not use lead). It does work ... I've tried it ... but it's not as good as a graphite pencil.
> 
> Quill pens are very easy to make and ink can be made from a number of sources. The easiest way to get ink is to find some Shaggy Mane mushrooms which are also known as ink cap mushrooms. Put them in a jar and as they decompose they turn into black ink. It actually works pretty good.
> 
> The biggest issue nowadays is finding people who can write legibly. The only ones I know of with good penmanship are cops. (Something about all the reports they have to fill out for court cases, etc.) :dunno:


I have never heard that about musket balls. That's cool I have some .50 balls ill have to try that. Plus the mushroom ink. I tell you I learn something new everyday. Thanks. Also polk berries make a good ink. Semi permenant. Kinda red in color.


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## mdprepper (Jan 22, 2010)

mosquitomountainman said:


> The easiest way to get ink is to find some Shaggy Mane mushrooms which are also known as ink cap mushrooms. Put them in a jar and as they decompose they turn into black ink. It actually works pretty good.


I never knew they had a "real" name. When I went out to the woods my Grandmom just always called them Inkies. I love learning new stuff. Thanks for bringing back a good memory for me!


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## Kellog (Mar 3, 2012)

I agree there is a wealth of knowledge being lost as older people pass on but there are also some artist/craftsmen who are keeping obscure skills alive. Some historical re-enactment societies and guilds have fairs or gatherings where you can observe, learn and ask questions. I just found out about a local "frontier" society that has camp outs where they live like in the old frontier days.



torqx said:


> But could I make 1 #2 pencil no and it's not just about making it the thing am I going to be able to get to Paraguay or where ever the basic lead graphite is mined? That's an example I don't know if it's even mined or where. travel as we know it will be completely changed so materials and availability will change will #2 pencils be around idk I bet people will be writing a whole lot more so I'd bet not for long


I understand your point here is how basic things come from far away these days and it will be a problem to find substitutes. Writing materials and paper could be made locally provided the situation was stable enough where a person or two could take time for the task. This is not exactly a survival skill - it's more of rebuild phase skill or something that could be used for trade.

I've made quite a bit of paper from local plants like long fibered grasses, corn husks, bast fibers from hickory & willow trees. Mulberry tree bast makes beautiful paper - light colored, creamy and translucent. Making paper from plants is a wee bit labor intensive but very doable - and very teachable. Basically, fibers are cooked in an alkali solution (wood ashes), then beaten to a pulp, and formed on a screen. (My neighbor teases me that I will be valuable after TSHTF because I will be able to make toilet paper...Okay - it won't be Charmin, but it'll be better than corncobs. )

Inks can also be made from lamp black (soot), earth pigments and other materials like walnut hulls and oak galls. Dip pens can be made from bamboo or cane, or even a sharpened stick as well as quills. Charcoal makes a good writing material, too. Making pencils is beyond me though. Not being able to import graphite from overseas won't worry me, but not being able to import chocolate will! 

Here are a couple of books that have info on making writing materials:
Vance Studley - _Make your Own Artist's Tool and Materials_; and James Watrous - _The Craft of Old-Master Drawings_.


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## HillbillyPrep (Mar 24, 2012)

This is an awesome thread. It reminds me of my great-grandparents and grand-parents that lived in a different world than we do now. I'm glad I paid some attention to what they were doing and I can pass it along. Thanks for the thread.


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## goatlady (Nov 7, 2011)

http://flick.com/~liralen/quills/quills.html

Making good working quill pens is a bit involved, but since I have geese and have collected a few nice wing feathers, this is my winter project - practice and hopefully master the technique. Elderberries also make a nice ink.


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## oldvet (Jun 29, 2010)

A short answer to your question is that we will rely on our knowledge, preps, garden, livestock, bartering, and security to hopefully get us through whatever comes at us over the long haul.


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## Asatrur (Dec 17, 2008)

This is why I am an avid follower of the Transition movement whose goal is to empower people to build smaller, local, resilient communities instead of ones dependent on global technologies.


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

Folks do not realize how much our lives revolve around electricity and a majority of the population will crumble without it. Heck, modern commerce would completely stop without it!!! I just got a chuckle out of this thought. Can you imagine going to store, paying cash and the cashier has to figure out how much change to give you back on their own? I have lived without electricity or running water in my past and managed to survive just fine. I know I could do it again if need be and be alright too.

This is the primary thing I have prepared for; no electric, no phone/internet, no supply chain, no personal transportation or leaving the ranch at all for that matter. No access to anything other than what I have in my possession. My original goal was one a one year supply of food and I have slowly been adding to the plan after I reached that goal.

I have accumulated enough sundries to last two years, longer if I rationed. I have a solid year of LTS food and with the garden to supplement I could hold out two years. Longer if I became full vegan and had successful crops. I do realize how much I would have to grow to have a year’s supply! Thinking of that, I could use a dozen or two more cases of canning jars and can always use more lids. I have enough tools and supplies to make emergency repairs to the house and enough backup manual tools to replace one if any one of them breaks. I am not saying I have two of every tool in the world I could possibly ever need! I simply have enough to make do and would have something that I could use as another tool. If I lost the ½” crescent wrench I have vice grips or if I lose a hammer I have the back of the hatchet kind of thing.

Being alone, the biggest thing that would do me in is a major medical issue. I have a pretty good first aid collection as well as a basic knowledge of how to use them all, and a few books. I do have some commercial drugs and have a decent medicinal herb garden. Several good books on how to use the herbs I do have and enough grain alcohol to make tinctures.

I have a generator as backup for the well and a few Berkey filters on the way as a backup to the generator. There is a little spring a few hundred yards from the house that flows year round that would be sufficient for my needs. Rainwater would be the backup for that… Or vice versa.

I have enough candles and wax to keep illumination going for quite a spell. But if I am in that situation it will be bed at dark and up at light anyway. Minimal inside work time when it is dark out as there will be too much to do and I’ll be mighty tired.

One area I am lacking is puppy food then dog food for the 5 month old. I had a good stock of senior maintenance food for my old dog but gave that to a rescue organization and friends when she passed. I am 4 bags ahead but that will only last a few months. I do have a lot of rice, beans and pasta that I can flavor with beef bouillon if needed. Hey, she eats mud, dirt and sticks now, beans and rice will be a feast for her! :-})

For sanity I have many decks of cards, the banjo (and extra strings), books and the puppy!

One thing I still need, one thing that I can think of, is a solar panel system for charging batteries. One that would charge batteries for flashlights and such as well as car batteries for 12 volt lights. 12 volt lights and switches I could scrounge from the vehicles and I have plenty of wire around to hook them up. Yes, I have an old non-electric soldering iron, flux and solder.


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## torqx (Mar 30, 2012)

My point was more that is just a pencil now try a working camera I can see how the dark ages came about. I joined a medieval reenactment society for a number of year just to learn these skills and it was fun to boot. I think most of the problem lies in materials and the huge distances between the places that they all come together. I don't think I'll be eating pomegranate or possibly oranges unless I get some to grow in a green house. Northern climate and all.


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

UncleJoe said:


> In our society it may not be necessary to know how to fix your own car or how a phone works because there is always someone else that knows the secrets of these devices. But , what if these people that hold the keys to our knowledge *suddenly* ceased to exist or if the technology somehow broke and they could not fix it?


The problem is still there even if the process occurs gradually rather than suddenly. Look at what's happening to South Africa's electricity supply system - inadequate planning for expansion, generators failing because there are not enough trained technicians to service them, rolling blackouts, - the system is a mess but it didn't get to be a mess by suffering a sudden catastrophe, it got to be a mess by a slow slipping of standards and a shortage of smart people to keep on top of things.

The end result of a sudden or a gradual collapse is still misery. I happen to think that a slow collapse is the more dangerous of the two.



> It is not unthinkable that a natural or manmade event could create a situation where our technology is damaged or destroyed beyond our ability to repair or recreate it from scratch . . . . . .
> 
> On a local level , if all of your conveniences were lost , how long would it take you to recreate them from scratch? Could you even do it?


Anyone seen the movie Idiocracy? Here is a trailer:






Here is the whole movie on-line:






There have been a few reports which have detailed the slowing rate of innovation around the world, and while this may look deceptive in light of new iphones and such coming onto the market, the report is actually looking at new technologies and discoveries, not just variations on consumer products.

Secondly, the global level of IQ is dropping year after year - we as a species are becoming stupider, so depending on when a crisis hits, we may find that we don't have the critical mass of smart people who survived who we can turn to to lead us back to technology. Right now we see that cities are like magnets for high IQ and high tech workers - there really aren't many jobs for say computer chip designers out in the sticks. So, when the push becomes the shove and all hell breaks loose, the most valuable of society's people for the mission of rebuilding society will likely be the one's that are first lost to us because they were stuck in the cities, near their jobs. The lucky and smart ones who saw what was coming and escaped to more defensible locations can certainly help rebuild society but they'll likely be too few to matter, and for the great bulk of people who are outside of the city "kill zone" or "disaster zone" they're only equipped to survive and not innovate.

Remember that the rebuilding of society in past instances through history found innovators in all nooks and crannies of society and that's because society wasn't anywhere as nearly sorted by skill and IQ as it is today. Back then the local blacksmith had a very good chance of being smarter than the banker's son because that society was deeply constrained by nepotism, that is, the blacksmith's son could never really rise above his station in life - he was a peasant, or near to it, and that's where he would stay. This means that he could tinker and invent and society would slowly crawl back up the technology ladder.

What we face is different today - our society is very good at spotting talent and allowing people to rise above the station in life that they were born to. That's the American Dream. A poor boy can invent something or start a business and shoot for the stars. This means that as each generation has passed that it becomes less and less likely that we're going to find the next Thomas Edison being born to the garbage man and more and more likely that he will be born to the Intel engineer, or the university professor, or to the State's inspector of bridge engineering, etc.


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## md1911 (Feb 9, 2012)

Bobbb said:


> The problem is still there even if the process occurs gradually rather than suddenly. Look at what's happening to South Africa's electricity supply system - inadequate planning for expansion, generators failing because there are not enough trained technicians to service them, rolling blackouts, - the system is a mess but it didn't get to be a mess by suffering a sudden catastrophe, it got to be a mess by a slow slipping of standards and a shortage of smart people to keep on top of things.
> 
> The end result of a sudden or a gradual collapse is still misery. I happen to think that a slow collapse is the more dangerous of the two.
> 
> ...




I agree with your premis. However you must remember necessety is the mother of invention. We as a people don't need anything underline need not want. And if a society was in need of something some old country hick will come up with a way to fufill that need. Then some one else will make it better. (Forgive the spelling errors. My phone does not have spellcheck)


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## pixieduster (Mar 28, 2012)

Woody said:


> Folks do not realize how much our lives revolve around electricity and a majority of the population will crumble without it. Heck, modern commerce would completely stop without it!!! I just got a chuckle out of this thought. Can you imagine going to store, paying cash and the cashier has to figure out how much change to give you back on their own?
> What! The cashier has to think and do math? Lol. Been in that position where the electricity went out while standing in line. 2 customers including myself and they had to shut down, she couldn't do the math. Wow.
> 
> For sanity I have many decks of cards, the banjo (and extra strings), books and the puppy!
> ...


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## efbjr (Oct 20, 2008)

pixieduster said:


> Woody said:
> 
> 
> > What! The cashier has to think and do math? Lol. Been in that position where the electricity went out while standing in line. 2 customers including myself and they had to shut down, she couldn't do the math. Wow.
> ...


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## CulexPipiens (Nov 17, 2010)

Very interesting thread!

In reading through it the assumptions that everything will collapse and electricity will be gone is vital to most of the scenarios. If this does indeed happen, then it's back to the 1800s. Sure cars may still work and while batteries last so will the devices but for those without a solar system, it'll be 1800 pretty quick. No refrigeration. No microwaves or electronic start stoves/ovens... heck no pumps to pump NG or PG to you. Vehicles may last a few years as long as you can get gas, but even that will go bad.

Now those with solar and PRI and whatever other technologies that allow them to maintain a 2000's lifestyle in a long term collaps will become targets if/when the have-nots discover you still do. Sure you got your AR, 590 and sniper rifle but at what point do you sleep? Just how many times can you defend yourself before someone gets through? or an overwhelming group slips in? How long will your ammo hold out? (other thread have discussed ammo stockpile quantities)

Of course, even with the economic collapse in Argentina, they still have cars and gas and ipods and power. Even in war zones (middle east comes to mind) there is power at least part of the day most of the time. So, expecting a world wide collapse and sending us back to the 1800's, while possible, is a long shot. If we do get thrown back... most people had their own gardens and made he majority of their own food. Most were not blacksmiths. Most were not telegraph operators... etc. But we did have those people too. You just paid for their services. Needed a new shovel? Pay the blacksmith to make you one. The person with the specialized skill and tools and materials would make you what you needed and get money/food/goods in return. If you have the skills and can offer an in demand specialized skill then you may have a leg up on the rest.

One poster mentioned needing more jars and going to a mostly vegan diet. It got me to thinking, just how may jars do you need? What is reasonable to eat on one day? One quart? Two quarts? Of course the answer depends a lot on the contents, calories and such. Just throwing out a number, assume 2 quarts per person per day. Over winter you could have a nearly 6 month window (in the midwest) before gardens start producing again. 180 days, 2 quarts = 360 quarts. Family of 4 - 1440... let's say 1500 quarts of food just to make it through the winter. Now I don't expect people would live on just quarts of canned food, but dried foods (oatmeal, wheat berries), made foods (bread), stored foods (squashes, potatoes, other root cellar stuff) and hunted foods (deer, fish) would supplement but it still gives thought to just how much you might need to be considering for your preps.

Lastly, if we were back to the 1800s, you would be spending most of your waking hours working. Farming, foraging, hunting, chores, upkeep, repairs and more. The monthly or holiday gathering at the town square would be your down time and social event. It's only our modern society that allows us to avoid much work that provides for all of our free time currently occupied by internet and such.


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## Ration-AL (Apr 18, 2012)

great thread, and glad to see people thinking about things in terms of rebuilding and creating as opposed to the "i'm going to Rambo it out" mentality on some of the other forums i've visited....

i personally completely agree with this thread 100%, we maybe be running in the woods for a bit in the first days,months of a a SHTF situation, but what comes after that?
i see alot of people who fail to ask the question what is next? this thread relates to me in that way, what is next after you got out?

tech as we know it will be gone but not forgotten, how do we bring it back on line? there's alot out there from various sources on how do this stuff, i think the biggest advantage will be basically going all steam punk on it, blending 1800's and 1900's principles with modern tech.

people act like in a BO or SHTF situation that circuit boards won't still be there, and all of the things we have now pr know now, will go away forever, how about finding "survivalist" ways of bringing those things back on line and getting them to work again?

i have recently been looking at sources of power generation on my property for a SHTF case, 50% of my house is built into the hill so i got some geothermal going on and the house itself runs on propane and there's a stream/creek that runs across the back acre of my land.

i've looked at producing methane from my septic,looked at hydro from the creek and my downspouts, and neither one of those is very viable, so i'm down to solar and wind, and i am currently researching methods for making solar cells from everyday items....not a winning battle...and wind is unreliable at best, at least on my property, my question is like that already asked, is there any scavenge ready types of electricity made from common materials in order to rebuild? i too am a competent welder and machinist and can fashion tools from raw materials, but how about taking it to the next step with full electric? as in creating a energy source, making a transformer and powering your welder or hand tools?

so far short of rigging up a bicycle to a battery bank and having a hyper active 12 year old peddling for days i'm running out of ideas , lol....?


in short my long range plans are as long as they need to be, i'm prepping for 8 months of standby supplies and 3-4 years of using renewable/sustainable resources, if i've made it 3-4 years i can assume things are going good and there won't be much issue after that considering they say that the vast majority of people won't make it past the 2 year mark, think it was 80%?

anyways, my plan is to make it longer then everybody else, but good luck on that one, to any of us ,huh?


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## musketjim (Dec 7, 2011)

I have some of the FoxFire series and multiple books from Rodale Press on homesteading etc. I have several medical books also, as well as Backwoodsman mag. I try to attend as many seminars and classes as possible from cooperative extension and other organizations on usable plants, mushrooms, gardening etc. I constantly work on extending my usable gardening area because whatever preps I have I expect to go fairly quick with kids and grandkids showing up. I don't think preps will last as long as you expect. Have skills and good friends and neighbors with skills.


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

> If Technology Fails, Just How Long Are Your Long Range Plans?


1800 meters. costs $6.50 to make that dog bark though


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

I try not to depend on too much technology for this reason. 

Sure I use guns which probably have a 100 years of serviceable use if lightly used and properly maintained, as well as ammo that will probably be usable for half that time. And I have radios, and a little bit of solar. I plan to get a genie, but unlike some out there I am not planning on having a generator running long term for power: I don't plan on using technology for cooking, heating, or entertainment. For the most part most of my preps are low tech, including some low tech weapon systems.


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## pandamonium (Feb 6, 2011)

Todays society, being a service oriented society, is very handicapped when it comes to being able to fabricate much of anything useful. Not talking about people who work in the trades, although, I do know some guys who are electricians who have no clue about anything else, wouldn't know how to change the sparkplug in their lawnmower! Most, not all, techs are specialized, and getting more so all the time. Unbelievably there are plenty of people who call an electrician to change lightbulbs, sad. 
I believe if society collapses, those with the knowledge and skills to repair and or fabricate useful items will be in high demand. If you were able to power up a community, you would probably be the king of said community. 
There would be so much useless "tech stuff" laying around, unuseable, it would be like NYC with the garbage men on strike! For the most part, people would be hurting badly because of their lack of knowledge, not just mechanical knowledge, but good old fashioned knowledge on living without the convienience of, well, their convieniences!! 
I work at learning a new skill as soon as I have learned how to do the one I am learning now. Right now I am learning to tan hides, using only what is available, no storebought goods. At the same time I am working on trapping and setting snares. Things I have done before, but want to be better at. 
Self-sufficiency means being able to make do with what you have, and making what you have do. And to make, so you can have. So you can do!


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## tommixx (Dec 10, 2012)

remember country folks can survive.I have seen people get into the sheep and cattle business they usually last long. like the old saying goes you can take a sheepman and make cattleman out him but you can't take cattleman out of him, we that were born to it.here. here in Montana if you read many of the homesteaders interviews times were rough most didn't make it. !st thing that went was the game. not much water.


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## dixiemama (Nov 28, 2012)

Our BOL will be entirely primitive. With breeding stock and seeds from the garden we shld be self sustaining for years.

We are currently stocking 2 years worth of supplies along with years of flour and sugar.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

dixiemama said:


> With breeding stock and seeds from the garden we shld be self sustaining for years.


I (and MANY others) need a better way to handle insects in the garden and diseases in the critters.

Those will slow food supply to a crawl.... if not stop it.


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## CulexPipiens (Nov 17, 2010)

LincTex said:


> I (and MANY others) need a better way to handle insects in the garden and diseases in the critters.
> 
> Those will slow food supply to a crawl.... if not stop it.


That can be a very real problem.

http://www.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~neadams/dust.htm

An excerpt.....



> Although 1934 was the hottest summer of the 1930s others were almost as bad. In 1935, after several days of unrelenting temperatures of more than 100 degrees, a 23-year-old farmer near Hastings dropped dead in the field. The next year, Newsweek magazine called the Great Plains "a vast simmering cauldron" because of the constant heat. On both July 17 and July 24, 1936 the temperature in Hastings reached 116 degrees, and by July 30, when the heat finally broke, there had been three weeks of heat so intense that the stunted cornstalks had cooked in the field.
> 
> The next curse to fall upon the Plainsmen was grasshoppers, plagues of them reminding the faithful of Biblical scriptures. Although some grasshoppers had showed up in 1935, they appeared in force in Adams county in 1936, with especially heavy flights on June 24, and July 1. They were so dense they clogged a combine near Kenesaw, causing it to break down; what grain was harvested elsewhere was so full of grasshoppers it was discounted at the elevators. The insects ate vegetable gardens, covered the air with the sight and sound of their activity. Farther south, into Kansas, the grasshoppers stripped foliage from evergreen trees, gnawed bark from young trees. Farmers used all sorts of remedies to try to control them, including the 80,000 pounds of bran and 400 pounds of sodium arsenate that W. E. Huff, county agricultural agent, distributed, but nothing worked. The grasshoppers stayed and laid eggs.
> 
> The next spring there seemed to be hope that the bugs were on the wane, for a rain on May 21, 1927, the first moisture of any consequence of the year, seemed to drown young grasshoppers, the Hastings Spotlight reported optimistically. But the bugs thrived, particularly when another shower, four days later, flooded several hundred pounds of grasshopper poison before it could be distributed. By June 30, farmers began cutting what wheat they had, working hard to keep ahead of the grasshoppers. By July 7, county farm officials estimated that grasshoppers had damaged the crop by a much as ten bushels an acre, more than half the yield. It was particularly discouraging because most of the farms had produced nothing the few years previously and there had been enough moisture at the right times this year that farmers thought they finally had a crop of sorts. They cut their small grain--barley, oats, wheat,--by headlights at night, working straight through in an effort to beat the grasshoppers; although they were frantic, it wasn't hard to work at night because during the day the temperatures got to more than 100 degrees. But despite their efforts, the small grain was sparse, and the corn crop in the fall equally dismal.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

For rebuilding society after a major, world-wide collapse think in terms of life before computer chips. You can make vacuum tubes out of jars and wires but a silicone chip needs some very modern technology to produce. 

Think local. We eat bananas all year long here in northwestern Montana. Not going to happen if TSHTF. What can be produced locally?

Remember, all of the easy stuff is gone. You aren't going to drill an oil well with a wooden derrick and a steam engine. Those layers were pumped dry long ago. 

Work on your 1800's skills and technology. The person who can make a vacuum tube radio, a steam engine, or a water powered grain mill will be in high demand. 

I remember years ago a mission organization was trying to recruit mechanics to go to the mission field in Africa. They needed "old farmer" mechanics. Not modern mechanics. They needed a guy who could repair a 1940's era tractor using baling wire and pliers. They needed people who could go out in the wilderness and make eyeglasses by manufacturing the frames and grinding the glass themselves (and they had a few who could!). The major problem was that most skilled craftsmen relied upon others for their parts, tools and equipment and/or they were specialists.

I wanted to rebuild a starter awhile back and could not find bushings for it even with an internet search! Twenty-five years ago most mechanics rebuilt starters rather than install remanufactured units. Now everyone install remanufactured parts.

By the same token the last alternator I rebuilt I couldn't buy brushes for it so I scavenged some from a junk alternator, filed them down to fit then soldered the new brushes to the old wires. It's still working and I saved almost $150.00 over buying a remanufactured unit. 

Think of what can be done locally with 1800's technology! (Don't forget to have the tools on hand as well! After TSHTF anvils are going to be very expensive.)


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## ashley8072 (Apr 26, 2011)

Building a microwave? People can't even parallel park anymore. The cars do it for them. Lol! This is why I envy the Amish. Even the modern ones use convienances in our day and age, but they have the knowledge and skills to build our simplest machines. I separate prepper from homesteader, and I spend nearly all free time learning how our ancestors accomplished daily life without such tech luxuries. In a worst case scenario, I don't want to bunker down and stay alive. I want to live and be whole hearted about it. Even without disaster, I can see an idiocracy world. That was a great Sheeple movie.  I'm glad that our family business, going on 40 years, in exhaust work has given me the privilege of knowing the basics of vehicles. I'm happy that working side by side with DH on the construction site for 9 years building custom homes from the ground up has given me the know how of maintaining and repairing our home. And I'm ecstatic that DH has had a successful business in auto repair and tires for the past 2 years with our new shop. Something as simple as fixing a flat with no machines or electricity, people just don't think it can be done. But it can.


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## sloetruk (Dec 8, 2012)

I'm stored up for 90 days.

Depending on how things look, I can extend my stay or just pick the bottle of wine to go out on.

multi-variable equation derives variable-dependent answer


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## Wellrounded (Sep 25, 2011)

LincTex said:


> I (and MANY others) need a better way to handle insects in the garden and diseases in the critters.
> 
> Those will slow food supply to a crawl.... if not stop it.


I've grown most of my food needs for more than 25 years, never bought a bug spray and only use critter medicine (commercial) for new additions to the farm during their quarantine period (we need to know they are disease free as well as giving them a time to build natural resistance and improve their overall health). It's about management and being aware that you WILL have times when crops fail and animals need a bit of TLC. We can't grow anything in the cabbage family over the hotter months, so we wait until it cools a bit and then sow them, we have to be careful of worms in the livestock over the wet months so cell graze accordingly. We can make sprays for the garden if needed but we rarely use them. There are a few plants/animals that take too much work and fail too often, we go without them.


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

_"If Technology Fails, Just How Long Are your Long Range Plans?"_

Long enough so the Children (with their spouses) can get home, load up with the supplies I have and head to their final BOL.

Long enough to bury the 2 "grandmothers".

Long enough that if the wife doesn't get me killed, to head to the Children's final BOL with the remaining supplies.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

I don't have long range plans. We have a year's worth of supplies stored but I'm a diabetic who gets meds every 3 months. I can stock up on my over the counter supplements but there isn't much I can do about the 7 medications that I'm on. We live in town. The ground is too rocky to have a garden. 

I don't expect an end of civilization disaster. I expect the collapse of the dollar and a one-world police-state government to emerge after the chaos.


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## SouthCentralUS (Nov 11, 2012)

Dakine said:


> 1800 meters. costs $6.50 to make that dog bark though


Napoleon? I love cannons.


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## cranky1 (Oct 9, 2008)

born 1949, parents went through the dirty thirtys, very thrifty people. worked in the mechanic trade since age 12, worked full time since age 16 in the trade, moved to heavy duty mechanic in 1970, changed to welder in1982, machinist through out all. raised family in the ******* style. granny born in 1879 in iowa, raised at her knee until her death in 1963. self taught in everything self sustaining. canning, soap making. killing and butchering , hunting since age 9. lived in the yukon for 40 years and learned a lot about the old ways from native elders. can i survive at -50 C ? yes i can. will i like it? no. but i will live until someone kills me. will i pass on my information to someone else? yes . if only i could find someone to listen! just seems that no one is willing to learn anymore.


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