# Thoughts?



## invision

Ok, I want your thoughts here.

I have been watching three thing very closely and I am starting to feel combined could equal a trigger event.

1) Ben B is going out the door, the new chick nominated is even more "Pro" QE than Ben. So, if she gets the spot, I do think QE will last through ALL of 2014. I also think no one has a clue how to get the purchased bad debt off the books without seeing interest rates blow up... By end of 2014, it will be 3 years of $85B a month.

2) AHA - Obamacare - I know you all just went WTH InVision?!? Ok, so let's take a look at what has been said - to have the system work for all the subsidized accounts, they will need to be 7M enrolled and paying full rates. We just saw 5M cancelations go out. Additionally, at the end of 2014, the 1 year pass for big business expires. Now thank god, pressure is being put on the administration due to the lie "you can keep your insurance", well today 39 or 40 democratically in the house voted YEA on the republican bill to enforce the little lie... IF this goes through, then that 7M needed will never appear, so we will have a huge strain on our debt... I want to add in, that after 2014, we know the insurance co. Are going to re-adjust aka raise costs for plans in exchange, so that means subsidies are going to skyrocket as well.

3) the debt ceiling until February 7th is open... US Treasury added $350+B in debt one day after the can kick, not to mention we have added $90B MORE debt since then in what 45 days or less? We all know February 7th will be another punt of the can... How far? Let's say Dec 2014 - non-election year coming up... 

So if all three combined come true. Keep printing, AHA supplements fly up in 2015 with not enough payees, and can kicked out to mid 2015... 

Thoughts?


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## FatTire

First off, nice to see you posting again bud 
Nextly, as I understand it, and my understanding is basic at best, the current system relys on creating money out of debt. That is, for every printed or electronic dollar, interest is owed. Now to my way of thinking, that cant go on in perpetuity, eventualy the money must necesarilly become worthless. But, you also camt stop printing more and more, because you need capital to service the debt, the debt you create when you print more capital, and so on... so, to wrap up my thoughts on this, QE is a necesarry self defeating function of a flawed system. We are currently at a confluence of events, a perfect storm, all the worst attributes of the profit motive comming to full fruition. Is it going ro fail? History tells us yep, sure as fornicatin causes kids... When? Could be monday next, or it could be ten years from now. I do think your reasoning is sound tho...


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## Sourdough

China's chess board move today was pure brilliance. And clearly illuminates China's forward economic strategy. China now can't loose. America's biggest problem is not its debt. This is going to be fun.


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## Marcus

1) Conventional wisdom on Wall Street says QE will continue until next summer before there is even a chance of any tapering. Should tapering occur, it'll be small to start ($5-10B/month) so that the Fed can judge the effects. The last time the Fed talked about tapering (2nd Q), we got a 5.75% correction in the S&P 500. We'll probably get a similar correction when the Fed starts the tapering talk again. One of the guys I follow, Avi Gilburt on ElliottWaveTrader.net, does have a count that includes the possibility of the S&P getting back down to the 600 level. Should that level come, we'll have given back *all* of the gains since the 2009 low and then some.

Furthermore, the effects of QE are obeying the Law of Dimishing Returns. Interest rates have actually gone up about 100 basis points (1%) this year despite the continued QE of $1 Trillion/year. Given that the US GDP is $15.68 Trillion, QE represents roughly $1 out of every $15 produced by the economy. Eventually, the Fed will have to resort to direct intervention in the economy as they did during the 30s. That, to me, will be a huge warning sign that the Stuff is about to hit the Rotating Impeller.

2) Obamacare is predicated on suckering enough healthy young people into buying health insurance they likely don't need. If young, healthy folks don't buy in, it fails. It's all about the math. Someone has to pay for the sickly who have been denied coverage in the past due to their health conditions. And, unlike in the past, insurance companies can't charge more for the sickly (unless you're a smoker.) So everyone's insurance rates are going up. Dave Ramsey explains it pretty good here: 




What's not stated by many is this Act is a huge tax increase on every person who has a job. And *any* tax increase automatically lowers the standard of living of a citizen. Bob McEwen has a nice talk about this: 



 Warning: His whole talk is about an hour long but well worth it.

3) Will Congress kick the can down the road? Probably, given their past performance. Since they can't even pass a budget (required constitutionally), I rather doubt any but a few Tea Party types will raise much of a ruckus about it either. Oh, the talking heads in and out of the government will use scare tactics, but the government can survive not raising the debt limit. Unfortunately, this administration seems to delight in trying to harm as many folks as possible in these types of situations.

To me, the lack of a sound fiscal policy by this administration and by most in Congress is the looming threat. Until our government learns to live within its means, we face the very real possibility of economic instability and/or collapse. Deficit spending has been going on longer than I've been alive (the last government surplus was in 1957) and it will probably continue until it can't anymore. When that day of reckoning comes, it'll be brutal and many folks will learn a very hard life lesson. Well those that survive will. The only real good news about it is the rest of the world will be much worse off than us.


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## mojo4

Well I'm not one for making predictions but here goes my best shot. Is the Fed printing our currency into worthlessness? Yes. Why? They aren't that dumb and know full well the end they are pushing us toward but since they are controlled by evil then our collapse is needed to further a one world agenda and a healthy US is the biggest obstacle. Now we have the Gridex exercise going on (nope, nothing will happen with this exercise) but if you know the economy is doomed and are in the position of power to stop it now and don't, you will be executed after the collapse. If your 401k and all assets are lost tomorrow in a bubble will you be pissed and have politicians & bankers losing jobs and going to jail. But if at the same time there is an EMP and nothing works will people be mad about losing everything or will they be like the poor people in the Phillipines right now fighting for fresh water and food? What is the best theft? The one nobody ever notices that happened. Our grid is old and could easily be repaired and shielded for the same price as 1 bomber jet. But it hasn't and won't ever be fixed and shielded. So while Iran works on an EMP bomb and missle and China and Russia publicly threaten the western US with nukes we still allow them in to train for "humanitarian missions" and let them sit in on our gridex exercise. Nope kids, the fix is in. Sometime around Sep 13, 2015 we will have an economic collapse quickly followed by an EMP of the east coast (the money centers) and possible nuking of the west coast and for all intensive purposes America is finished.


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## Tweto

Keep in mind that everything here is just my opinion from a nonprofessional.

1. Yellin has no plans on ever tapering, in fact she may increase it.

2. The total screw-up of the ACA will send us into a recession next spring. 

3. The debt ceiling will be just a blip on the screen and will be increased by the nutless Republicans.

4. Our national debt will never be paid back, it was never in the plan.

5. The Fed wants inflation to control our debt but to have inflation the increase in the money supply has to get into circulation and I can not see that happening without a much better improving economy.

6. I'm on the fence about this but the possibility of deflation seems more likely then inflation. Fed money printing is to give us inflation so that we will not fall into deflation. As soon as we become aware that the money printing is doing nothing other then trying to make us feel better, the markets will collapse and the economy will go south. Yellin will be watching and if she sees this happening she will increase the QE. BTW Yellin was never able to see any of the major economic events of past before they happened. and she won't be able to see any future events ether.


Summarizing, The only result of all this is a very hard fall, much worse then the great depression. Possible government devaluation of the dollar. Confiscation of retirement money, confiscation of all private gold and silver holdings. Since Obama is in office for another 3 years nothing will happen during that time to stop it and that is why I think at best we have 2 years before SHTF, maybe sooner.


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## Cast-Iron

IMHO.....The whole central banking system is a sham. It is an intentionally secretive process of wealth redistribution from the working class into the hands of a few powerful families. You could even call it a form of economic slavery. Mayer Amschel Rothschild is often quoted as saying, "_Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws!_". I think that quote sums it up pretty well.

Could the Fed stop printing more money if they really wanted to? I don't think so, we are probably long past that option without some type of drastic policy action. It's a flawed model and we're now on the steep trajectory of the "hockey stick" curve. Will it implode? Almost certainly without some form of intervention. When this happens and how it unfolds remains to be seen. That is a prediction I can't make, but an eventuality I can prepare for. In fact that is probably the number one reason why I do prepare.

The good news is that all is not lost. This will almost certainly be a very difficult if not catastrophic paradigm shift for those who are unprepared. But for those who take this opportunity to transition into a greater self sufficient lifestyle, they will almost certainly experience less trauma and actually have much greater control of their own destinies. When we come out of this _(and if the central banks have been abolished during this ordeal), _we will almost assuredly be better off. If however, we allow these institutions to continue, than we are a nation of fools who only get what we justly deserve!

That's my $0.02


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## Elinor0987

Any one of the scenarios you mentioned could be a trigger event. Up until recently I was sure that the most imminent threat we all would face would be a complete economic collapse. The economy is already in the process of collapsing and has been for a while but has not completely bottomed out yet. Recently I heard about a global currency reset and now I have to modify my shtf plans. It's an entirely different animal altogether from a hyperinflationary collapse. You'll still have all or most of the elements of hyperinflation but it will be drug out longer and in slower motion. 

I don't know a lot about it and it's hard to explain because of that, but I think the effects of a global currency reset will look something like a hyperinflationary depression but in slow motion. Prices will rise as wages remain stagnant and assets that people own (retirement accounts, home equity) will either fully or partially be seized by the government. This would further reduce people's purchasing power and erode some of the cushions they have against a rising cost of living. It is even speculated that it might not be possible to stock up on pm's as a means to pay off large debts or make large purchases because they would be revalued in the new currency- but so would items that someone previously was financing. Mortgages could be rewritten with new terms and conditions tailored to the new currency valuation. The government could also tax the pm's through various means. They could make it impossible for someone to walk in a bank with a bag of pm's and pay off their mortgage. Unemployment would not only continue to be a problem, but it would get much worse.


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## haley4217

*I agree the signs of a trigger event (s) are becoming more evident.*

First, I have to second the motion that it's great to see you're posting again invision. :2thumb:

I believe your post is spot on with what's lurking in the woods out there in our future. I also believe that your choice of 2015 is unfortunately likely to be accurate. One other thing that's ahead in 2015 is that this is also the year that the IMF will re-evaluate the currencies and values within the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) which by many appears to be the leading contender for a replacement of the $USD for reserve currency.

While there are agreeably quite a few other things that could topple this fragile house of cards prior to 2015 I hope that we've got a little more time to get some things done.

Like many I believe that the event will happen before the next presidential election. I have always felt that our 44th President would likely be the last President of this cycle. Who knows what comes next, maybe I'll be voting for President of Texas?:dunno:


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## invision

Sourdough said:


> China's chess board move today was pure brilliance. And clearly illuminates China's forward economic strategy. China now can't loose. America's biggest problem is not its debt. This is going to be fun.


Ok, I missed the news.. WTH did China do? Please post a link so I can read it?

Ahh, Google is my Friend, and Reuters provides...

Anyone catch this in the 60 point plan???

The central bank has pledged to make the yuan "basically convertible" by *2015 *but it has never given a clear definition of what that means.


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## invision

FatTire & haley4217 - Thank you both! Yeah, I have been "away" - blame it on the damn book LOL... If you want a bestseller, you have to work your butt off promoting the hell out of it... 

Anyway, I have been "lurking" but not posting much... sorry, plan to fix that.

So, the question is what year...

I think if all 3 come down at once, plus the IMF thing, we are toast... I am just trying to figure out the year... will it be 2015, 2016, or 2017... I don't think the can will keep flying down the street without hitting the wall by 2020.

I know the O haters (uh, yeah, I don't care for him either) think that 2015 makes sense strictly because of his Ego, but I wonder if it won't be 2016 or 17... I just wished I could shake the magic 8 ball and see it


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## BillS

The biggest concern to me is the collapse of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. I saw this today:

http://www.stevequayle.com/index.php?s=33&d=682

Alert: Global Dollar Deleveraging V"S ALERT 11/18/13
Har.bin.ger = One that presages or foreshadows what is to come.

The thoughts that are put into the minds of men that are aware of what is occurring on trading floors all over the world is when? When is also the question that I get asked about quite often by thousands of people. So what is the "when"? The "when" is what is the sure sign that this fraudulent sham that we call an economy is over? Folks the biggest sign is when those that trade in the dollar to acquire goods, no longer want the worthless paper because of US "bully" policies or they have totally lost faith in the US as a responsible steward of it's currency and economy. That day has arrived.

All over the world economies that have not totally shot themselves in the foot by gambling in the Anglo-American casino are now moving to set up various currency exchanges by passing the dollar. Here is a quick list of nations already setting up currency swaps bypassing the dollar:

-China
-Japan
-India
-Russia
-Brazil
-South Africa
-Australia
-Germany
-France
-United Kingdom
-Singapore
-Iran
-Turkey
-New Zealand
-Italy
-South Korea
-Iceland
-United Arab Emirates
-Switzerland
-Luxemburg
-Canada
-Chile
-Argentina

Still think this is just a temporary trend? You still feel that this is only a cycle? Or is your survival instinct kicking in and challenging your world view with the reality that it is over for the United States? You can not have these many powerful economies that represent near 60% of global GDP set up swaps that will bypass the dollar and think that it is "business as usual". You should now put down your coffee, step away from your computer screen and run into the street screaming in anger that you have been sold out and your posterity has been cut off by charlatans in a far off capital that has squandered the finest economy the world has ever seen in a a few short years!!!! On second thought don't run out of your house screaming a police "officer" might either shoot you or taser you for "terroristic threats" this is the new Amerika.

BRICS BANK: Game Changer

I can not detail how significant this concept and desire for a BRICS bank is. It will be the biggest most significant financial agreement in history supplanting even the formation of the Euro. Why? Simple the BRICS proposal challenges the entire dollar leveraged global system of trade and world reserve, no other agreement in modern history has done that. It challenges the IMF and the World Bank shaking the western banking conglomerates to the core and making them take a second look into this very real and credible threat.

So why are they setting up this trade and finance apparatus in the first place? First and foremost the Dollar IS deemed as a volatile currency backed by an even more volatile country. It does not need much deliberation to know that the US has all THE recipes for economic failure. The other reason for the surge in setting up a BRICS bank is thanks to the US-Japanese initiated currency war it has become incredibly expensive to swap dollars when you have to debase your currency to keep up with the derelict American currency.

The constant debasement of the dollar creates exchange volatility that makes it very hard to predict the value of your currency versus the dollar. The uncertainty affects many nations causing rapid rise of energy and food costs, slowdown in capital inflows all the while running deficits. This compounded on top of all the costs of transacting in the dollar vis-a-vis fees, transaction costs etc. It is predicted the BRIC S nations themselves would save close to $13 billion a year in expenses related to dollar transactions!!!

The Rest Of The World

Folks economic considerations always outweigh political compulsions thus we kid ourselves into thinking that every nation in the world will commit suicide with us. There is no honor among thieves so we must not expect a rallying cry amongst the central bankers to save the sinking USS Economy. Non-Dollar currency swaps save money on imports by freeing nations from currency fluctuations due to the dollar and reducing the cost of funds. The key for the world will be to negotiate favorable terms of agreement. Only then will many nations' economic advantages outweigh the geopolitical risks of such a currency swap deals.

The chart below represents why the world is abandoning us. It is from 2011 it does not matter that current numbers are not available as we have statistically moved into the realm of the absurd.

They have no need for us and they can not sell their goods to an impoverished American consumer, the lie of the "service" based economy and Keynesian economics has been dashed to pieces on the rocks of reality, the free market and human nature. 2013 will be known as they year that America died. 2014 will be the year where the vultures begin to pick our carcass clean, get ready for the austerity and bail ins.

*Article in it's detailed entirety are at www.RogueMoney.net*
---------------------------------------------------------
I don't know how we avoid a collapse in 2014. Other than to say that I'm amazed we've made it this far.


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## Cast-Iron

Excellent post BillS! I agree with you 100%. However I still think there are some options which could dump a lot of this fraud onto the laps of the greedy SOBs that created it. I am thinking that the Fed should be hung out to dry. If they created these dollars out of thin air then they can figure out how to pay off any debts associated with the issuance of this bogus currency. This minting of the currency is clearly is in violation of our nation's highest law, the US Constitution. If our courts and politicians won't hold the Fed accountable, I say replace them with people who will. It may not make what's coming much easier, but I think it does pave the road to recovery for our children and grandchildren.


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## BillS

Cast-Iron said:


> Excellent post BillS! I agree with you 100%. However I still think there are some options which could dump a lot of this fraud onto the laps of the greedy SOBs that created it. I am thinking that the Fed should be hung out to dry. If they created these dollars out of thin air then they can figure out how to pay off any debts associated with the issuance of this bogus currency. This minting of the currency is clearly is in violation of our nation's highest law, the US Constitution. If our courts and politicians won't hold the Fed accountable, I say replace them with people who will. It may not make what's coming much easier, but I think it does pave the road to recovery for our children and grandchildren.


It would be nice if the Fed was done away with but that's just not happening. The people who control the Fed are the same ones that control the federal government, both political parties, the mainstream media, and the educational system in America. Those people have vast amounts of money. They get 6% dividends on all money created. So when the Fed creates a trillion new dollars they get $60 billion. So you can imagine the political influence they can have. They can pour vast amounts of money into advertising that they control through foundations and nonprofits.


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## AfleetAlex

mojo4 said:


> Well I'm not one for making predictions but here goes my best shot. Is the Fed printing our currency into worthlessness? Yes. Why? They aren't that dumb and know full well the end they are pushing us toward but since they are controlled by evil then our collapse is needed to further a one world agenda and a healthy US is the biggest obstacle. Now we have the Gridex exercise going on (nope, nothing will happen with this exercise) but if you know the economy is doomed and are in the position of power to stop it now and don't, you will be executed after the collapse. If your 401k and all assets are lost tomorrow in a bubble will you be pissed and have politicians & bankers losing jobs and going to jail. But if at the same time there is an EMP and nothing works will people be mad about losing everything or will they be like the poor people in the Phillipines right now fighting for fresh water and food? What is the best theft? The one nobody ever notices that happened. Our grid is old and could easily be repaired and shielded for the same price as 1 bomber jet. But it hasn't and won't ever be fixed and shielded. So while Iran works on an EMP bomb and missle and China and Russia publicly threaten the western US with nukes we still allow them in to train for "humanitarian missions" and let them sit in on our gridex exercise. Nope kids, the fix is in. Sometime around Sep 13, 2015 we will have an economic collapse quickly followed by an EMP of the east coast (the money centers) and possible nuking of the west coast and for all intensive purposes America is finished.


You're very smart.


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## Woody

I see it as there is simply not enough 'money' to pay back our debit. For every 'dollar' created there is interest that needs to be created also. That means that more fiat money needs to be created to pay back the interest that creates more interest that needs to have more fiat created to pay it back... So what is to happen? Heck, I'm just a working stiff but can see that they can keep this game going for a long time. That list of nations that are moving away from the USD as the reserve currency is a big wake up call but not the end game. Look at the 'price' of PM's in USD. They keep falling. How is that possible with the price, in USD, of everything else rising? It is a game that TPTB are playing to drain whatever value of everything they can out of the system. Heck, most of the PM's that are traded are just pieces of paper!

As soon as China realizes that the US consumer has no more USD to buy their stuff, and they have other trading partners that are taking up that void, they will dump all the bonds they have. That will start the flood of dumping that will sink the USD. Folks who are holding USD will be screwed. Folks who are holding hard assets (be they axes, ammo, PM's or food) will be in fairly good shape. It is going to be a rough ride for a majority of people here in the states. I can only hope, as many here mentioned, that we have a few years left to get ready. I'm still in a better situation than most of the sheeple but not where I would like to be.

I do enjoy these threads and hearing other's thoughts. Being a simple man, mine are pretty simple. What I can buy for $1 USD today will cost $2 tomorrow, I see that happening every trip to the store. I'm dumping all the USD I can afford to and putting them into things that I will need or would buy tomorrow, today. But, also being a simple man, I do not put all my eggs in one basket. Although I have enough, for example, toilet paper, to last me the rest of my days on this earth, I also have 6 months worth of fiat paper at home, stored safely away, just in case I am wrong!!! My Dad called it being a 'belt and suspenders guy'.


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## James

That's because our currency is just a piece a paper. Look at any dollar bill. They use to be backed up by gold. Now they are not. That's because the federal reserve isn't federal at all. It belongs to private banks, which Jefferson warned us this would happen if the central bank was created. I know it sounds like I'm wearing tin foil on my head. But it's the truth.


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## Tweto

According to Bob Brinker (radio financial expert), no democracy has ever paid off their dept. He said the best we can do is to pay the interest and keep the deficit in check.


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## BillS

Tweto said:


> According to Bob Brinker (radio financial expert), no democracy has ever paid off their dept. He said the best we can do is to pay the interest and keep the deficit in check.


I think it's way too late for America. Maybe if George W. Bush had wanted to cut spending and taxes he could have created enough economic growth to make the debt more manageable. Like how a $10,000 is easier to pay off if you make $40,000 than if you make $30,000.

It isn't just our exploding debt but it's also the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air to cover it. We're going to have hyperinflation. Nobody on the radio is saying that. Not even Rush Limbaugh.


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## LincTex

http://rt.com/business/foreign-currency-china-reserves-075/

Dollar cap: China limits world's highest foreign currency reserves
Published time: November 21, 2013 12:29

China's central bank has said it no longer sees any benefit in increasing its $3.66 trillion foreign currency reserves - already the world's largest. China will cap its purchases of US dollars in an effort to limit the depreciation of the yuan. 
(note from Linc: HOLY *&^*@!!!!)

"It's no longer in China's favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves," Bloomberg quoted Yi Gang, a deputy governor at the central bank as saying Tuesday.

Decreasing the influence of the dollar and other currencies is a step closer to reaching China's 2015 goal to "float" its currency and according to the People's Bank of China will help the everyday Chinese citizen.

Between July and September 2013 China's increased its foreign - currency holdings by $166 billion, boosting it to the world's highest of $3.66 trillion. This is also more that the Gross domestic product of Germany - the Europe's biggest economy, Bloomberg reports.

This will "basically" end the interference of foreign currency in the Chinese market, and widen the yuan's daily trading range.

The move also provides a buffer to China from future US Federal Reserve stimulus tapering, which, even just as it looms, has had severe ripple effects on emerging market currencies in Brazil and India.

Tuesday minutes from the Fed's policy meeting said it could start tapering its monthly $85 billion bonds purchases in the "coming months", if the job market improves further. Fed members also weighed the possibility of slowing the purchases even without clear evidence of a strengthening job market. The news sent Asian stocks lower on Thursday, Japan an exception.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.7 percent to 23,539.83 and China's Shanghai Composite decreased 1.1 percent to 2,183.50.

Once the yuan is set to free float, international transactions will be carried out in the Chinese currency, and it will become common in global trade, in league with the euro and dollar.

The Chinese yuan currently is the 13th most-used currency in the world for international payments.

The yuan has been dubbed a "hermit currency", isolating itself from foreign investment and setting its own rules, but is now slowly entering world currency markets.


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## Cast-Iron

@ BillS
IMHO, since these trillions of dollars haven't yet trickled down to the masses, it makes the proposition of hyperinflation a bit more difficult to forecast. You need a growing supply of dollars in the hands of consumers versus a relatively constant supply to induce the effects of inflation. The only inflationary pressure I see is from rising production costs and even these costs are difficult to pass along in such a weak economy. Those with access to credit or cash aren't doing much to stimulate economic growth. If they part with any funds, it may only be because they could buy some asset for pennies on the dollar. I suspect we'll see a lot more of that before any collapse.

@LincTex
If I'm not mistaken, China effectively "cut us off" years ago. They tend to think long term (years, decades, or even centuries) while most Americans can't see past the end of their nose. The Fed has been buying most of the treasuries for some time now (at least since the QE shenanigans began). Any Chinese investment in new dollars has probably been offset by backroom deals to keep up appearances. The dollar is dying a slow death and the Fed is keeping it on life support as long as possible. My suspicion is that they want to collect all the collateral they possibly can with their monopoly currency (hard assets for bits of worthless paper). I believe their lust for power and their greed is insatiable and therein lies the crux of our problem.

As always just my $0.02


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