# Solar activity maybe on the rise....



## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

...just read this and thought I'd post it. Hopefully will not be any issue. But good to know...

NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Jimmy


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## gypsysue (Mar 27, 2010)

Wow, so we're still not out of the woods with these solar flares and CMEs. Could be amping up for higher levels of activity. It said they're going to post a new report on Nov. 16 with updated forecasts and so forth... maybe you can post that too, when they release it.


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## JustCliff (May 21, 2011)

Keep us posted.This is something I am truely concerned about.
Thanks


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## Clarice (Aug 19, 2010)

Thanks Jimmy for keeping an eye out. Keep us posted please.


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

Maybe this could help in lack of summers up here in the Pacific Northwest lately?....LOL I know, not connected, dangit!


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

I am going to post some of the scales for the 3 types of flares and there ratings. I know, I know boring reading, but skim thru it and have a basic knowledge then if I tell ya there is a *G5* on the way....you will know it ain't good....and not have to :google:...

NOAA Space Weather Scales

It's not all that bad reading.

Jimmy


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## stayingthegame (Mar 22, 2011)

that part of the sun will face us in about five days and last about two weeks.

Part of sun turns into stormy 'benevolent monster' - Yahoo! News


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## popcorn590 (Aug 29, 2010)

*Gamma Burst from the Sun*

Most people that are not in the know have never heard of the Carrington Event of the mid 1800's. About 1860 a large solar storm sent a massive gamma burst (for those that do not understand that is gamma radaition) that arrived at earth much faster than a normal gamma bursts from a solar storm. At that time our country and most nations around the world were in their infanacy in regards to electricity. Unfortunately there were some telegraph operators that were reportedly knocked off their chairs into unconsiousness. That gamma burst essentially fried most electrical items that it could. That would be an earth changing event today. That type of gamma burst would fry all transistor, computer chip operated items today, ie; about everything we use today. We have had, and will continue to get solar storms in the near past, the present and into the future. Eastern Canada, I believe, was a recipient of the gamma burst in the early 2000's that shut the grid down on the eastern side of Canada. China just had the reaction to an event. All of these are minor in scale and survivable. Then again we might get a Carrington Like Event, that today could put most of the world back into the stone ages. If there is an event much larger than the Carrington event, we are talking massive gamma radiation that could be a specie damager or killer. So the fine line is there. This is not the 2012 Myan situation, although we are coming out of a miander minimum in regards to solar acitivty, and entering into a solar maximum of solar activity in, ya, you guessed it 2012. Scientists from NASA and other agencies, confronted Congress in the 1990's requesting that funds be made available to protect the major transformer stations in the Untied States. Congress ignored the warnings. At that time the amount of money was large but compared to today, it was minute. If there is a Carrington type event, and not enough warning to shut down the major and minor sub station transformers and we loose them, guess what folks. It takes just about a year to build one replacement transformer, and WE DO NOT BUILD the tranformers in the United States anymore. How would we get the newly built tranformers to where they are needed, with very limited transportation???? People need to be aware that although this is similar to having and being prepared for tornados and hurricans each year, we all need to be aware of what we should do to prepare the best way possible for solar events like this. 
Use your search engines to look up: "Surviving a Solar Storm," and search through the many for the most informed that are strictly about the solar storm survival. For emergency electricity, a wish list of mine, a site I have used is Sollutions from Science, and their reference to solar powered generators. There are three listed there. One for just coffee pots, and computers, an 1800 watt generator that is solar and has a hook up for a wind generator, and now they have one of about 4000 watts. I would love to get the 1800 watt one, get a few extra batteries, get the proper wind turbine for it, and just pack it away. In the mean time run wiring through the house in conduit with different colored boxes that would be hooked up to that generator if we had a major solar event. Then an electrical engineer told me to isolate all computer type items for that generator deep in a basement for protection from other events with some lead around them. Another item is your car, truck etc. Quick release battery terminals are a good idea. If you know of a heavy solar event as reported by NASA coming discontect your battery, put an extra chain from a metal part of you vehicle to a good ground. If it is a major event gas will be hard to get. I store about 35 gallons of gas for emergencies putting sta-bil in it every six months, then using it at then end of one year, and getting new gas. Turn off the main breaker in your house until the event is over. We are talking about a major event if predicted within hours by NASA or such. Also for a big event get under cover, remember this is a GAMMA BURST, gamma radiation, it can kill or make you very ill.
Main thing to do after you have read this is DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, and prepare the way you feel is best for your situation. Being ready for the possible will make you ready if the unfortunate comes.
Knowledge is power, the lack of knowledge will enslave or destroy you.
Thank You for Your Time, 
Popcorn590
P.S. Please remember this is not fantasy or fear mongering, IT HAS HAPPENED, and it will probably happen again. As large or larger than the Carrington Event, who really knows, just prepare yourself, just in case. Research and study. Look up the Carrington Event read and study of it, then study and understand how you can Survive a Solar Storm.


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

popcorn590 said:


> Most people that are not in the know have never heard of the Carrington Event of the mid 1800's. About 1860 a large solar storm sent a massive gamma burst (for those that do not understand that is gamma radaition) that arrived at earth much faster than a normal gamma bursts from a solar storm. At that time our country and most nations around the world were in their infanacy in regards to electricity. Unfortunately there were some telegraph operators that were reportedly knocked off their chairs into unconsiousness. That gamma burst essentially fried most electrical items that it could. That would be an earth changing event today. That type of gamma burst would fry all transistor, computer chip operated items today, ie; about everything we use today. We have had, and will continue to get solar storms in the near past, the present and into the future. Eastern Canada, I believe, was a recipient of the gamma burst in the early 2000's that shut the grid down on the eastern side of Canada. China just had the reaction to an event. All of these are minor in scale and survivable. Then again we might get a Carrington Like Event, that today could put most of the world back into the stone ages. If there is an event much larger than the Carrington event, we are talking massive gamma radiation that could be a specie damager or killer. So the fine line is there. This is not the 2012 Myan situation, although we are coming out of a miander minimum in regards to solar acitivty, and entering into a solar maximum of solar activity in, ya, you guessed it 2012. Scientists from NASA and other agencies, confronted Congress in the 1990's requesting that funds be made available to protect the major transformer stations in the Untied States. Congress ignored the warnings. At that time the amount of money was large but compared to today, it was minute. If there is a Carrington type event, and not enough warning to shut down the major and minor sub station transformers and we loose them, guess what folks. It takes just about a year to build one replacement transformer, and WE DO NOT BUILD the tranformers in the United States anymore. How would we get the newly built tranformers to where they are needed, with very limited transportation???? People need to be aware that although this is similar to having and being prepared for tornados and hurricans each year, we all need to be aware of what we should do to prepare the best way possible for solar events like this.
> Use your search engines to look up: "Surviving a Solar Storm," and search through the many for the most informed that are strictly about the solar storm survival. For emergency electricity, a wish list of mine, a site I have used is Sollutions from Science, and their reference to solar powered generators. There are three listed there. One for just coffee pots, and computers, an 1800 watt generator that is solar and has a hook up for a wind generator, and now they have one of about 4000 watts. I would love to get the 1800 watt one, get a few extra batteries, get the proper wind turbine for it, and just pack it away. In the mean time run wiring through the house in conduit with different colored boxes that would be hooked up to that generator if we had a major solar event. Then an electrical engineer told me to isolate all computer type items for that generator deep in a basement for protection from other events with some lead around them. Another item is your car, truck etc. Quick release battery terminals are a good idea. If you know of a heavy solar event as reported by NASA coming discontect your battery, put an extra chain from a metal part of you vehicle to a good ground. If it is a major event gas will be hard to get. I store about 35 gallons of gas for emergencies putting sta-bil in it every six months, then using it at then end of one year, and getting new gas. Turn off the main breaker in your house until the event is over. We are talking about a major event if predicted within hours by NASA or such. Also for a big event get under cover, remember this is a GAMMA BURST, gamma radiation, it can kill or make you very ill.
> Main thing to do after you have read this is DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, and prepare the way you feel is best for your situation. Being ready for the possible will make you ready if the unfortunate comes.
> Knowledge is power, the lack of knowledge will enslave or destroy you.
> ...


You may want to scroll thru this thread we recently talked about.

http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f2/could-big-emp-solar-flare-make-society-collapse-3587/

Jimmy


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

popcorn590 said:


> Most people that are not in the know have never heard of the Carrington Event of the mid 1800's. About 1860 a large solar storm sent a massive gamma burst (for those that do not understand that is gamma radaition) that arrived at earth much faster than a normal gamma bursts from a solar storm. At that time our country and most nations around the world were in their infanacy in regards to electricity. Unfortunately there were some telegraph operators that were reportedly knocked off their chairs into unconsiousness. That gamma burst essentially fried most electrical items that it could. That would be an earth changing event today. That type of gamma burst would fry all transistor, computer chip operated items today, ie; about everything we use today. We have had, and will continue to get solar storms in the near past, the present and into the future. Eastern Canada, I believe, was a recipient of the gamma burst in the early 2000's that shut the grid down on the eastern side of Op Pp PpCanada. China just had the reaction to an event. All of these are minor in scale and survivable. Then again we might get a Carrington Like Event, that today could put most of the world back into the stone ages. If there is an event much larger than the Carrington event, we are talking massive gamma radiation that could be a specie damager or killer. So the fine line is there. This is not the 2012 Myan situation, although we are coming out of a miander minimum in regards to solar acitivty, and entering into a solar maximum of solar activity in, ya, you guessed it 2012. Scientists from NASA and other agencies, confronted Congress in the 1990's requesting that funds be made available to protect the major transformer stations in the Untied States. Congress ignored the warnings. At that time the amount of money was large but compared to today, it was minute. If there is a Carrington type event, and not enough warning to shut down the major and minor sub station transformers and we loose them, guess what folks. It takes just about a year to build one replacement transformer, and WE DO NOT BUILD the tranformers in the United States anymore. How would we get the newly built tranformers to where they are needed, with very limited transportation???? People need to be aware that although this is similar to having and being prepared for tornados and hurricans each year, we all need to be aware of what we should do to prepare the best way possible for solar events like this.
> Use your search engines to look up: "Surviving a Solar Storm," and search through the many for the most informed that are strictly about the solar storm survival. For emergency electricity, a wish list of mine, a site I have used is Sollutions from Science, and their reference to solar powered generators. There are three listed there. One for just coffee pots, and computers, an 1800 watt generator that is solar and has a hook up for a wind generator, and now they have one of about 4000 watts. I would love to get the 1800 watt one, get a few extra batteries, get the proper wind turbine for it, and just pack it away. In the mean time run wiring through the house in conduit with different colored boxes that would be hooked up to that generator if we had a major solar event. Then an electrical engineer told me to isolate all computer type items for that generator deep in a basement for protection from other events with some lead around them. Another item is your car, truck etc. Quick release battery terminals are a good idea. If you know of a heavy solar event as reported by NASA coming discontect your battery, put an extra chain from a metal part of you vehicle to a good ground. If it is a major event gas will be hard to get. I store about 35 gallons of gas for emergencies putting sta-bil in it every six months, then using it at then end of one year, and getting new gas. Turn off the main breaker in your house until the event is over. We are talking about a major event if predicted within hours by NASA or such. Also for a big event get under cover, remember this is a GAMMA BURST, gamma radiation, it can kill or make you very ill.
> Main thing to do after you have read this is DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, and prepare the way you feel is best for your situation. Being ready for the possible will make you ready if the unfortunate comes.
> Knowledge is power, the lack of knowledge will enslave or destroy you.
> ...


Not sure where you got your info on transformers, but yes transformers are in fact built in the USA. Cooper, Howard, ABB are just a few of the companies I can think of, off the top of my head. Cooper has about 6 plants, ABB has a bunch, Howard is a MS grown company. GE and ABB build most of the BIG trAnsfomers.


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

The report paints a worst-case scenario where no warning is given, and the electrical grid operators do not have time to take precautions. In 2006, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release indicating that the next solar cycle would be stronger than normal, as much as 30 to 50% stronger than the 2001 solar max... So far, we have a *LOUSY* record of predicting the intensity of solar maximum, and this report was no exception. It was based on a 'conveyer belt model' of the sun, and based its predictions on observations of sunspots in the previous cycle--it so far has been WRONG.

However, the sun is behaving oddly, and nearly three years after the NCAR report, in May 2009, NASA, in conjunction with NCAR released a new report that says that "Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a *below-average number of solar flares*". Even if the original NCAR prediction was still valid, we still have this question: What relevance is it to us?The authors of the NCAR paper said that cycle 24 may be stronger than usual, and *almost* as strong as the 1956 solar max. Did we all die in 1956, or during the much cited 'Carrington Event of 1859 for that matter?...

no, we did not


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## popcorn590 (Aug 29, 2010)

*Transformers*

I had heard that from what I thought was reputable sourse. Guess not and I do appolgize for bad information.
Popcorn590


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

popcorn590 said:


> I had heard that from what I thought was reputable sourse. Guess not and I do appolgize for bad information.
> Popcorn590


they do make them domestically (I've been to the GE facilities in Erie, PA and Cleveland, Ohio) ... but to me it seems they don't make a whole lot (enough) of them in case of a disastrous cascade event.  :dunno:


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## popcorn590 (Aug 29, 2010)

*Transformers*

My impression from the guy I talked to was, that under a Carrington Event situation, we would be up the creek anyway. Whether we make some here or not. Personally I believe that the United States should make ALL of ANYTHING that is essential to the survival of the citizens of this country and its ability to produce what is needed for survival of We The People.
But, Hay maybe that is to rational. 
"Afterall You can not rationalize an irrational situation." 
Well there goes for trying to understand the U.S. Gummmmint, and what it does or, well maybe doesn't doooose right.
Later,
Popcorn590


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## Col_Conover (Nov 4, 2011)

IMHO. I think all preparedness for this type of event by the US gov. will fail. The only one prepared somewhat is the US Military, due to the Nuke preps that have done. 

My ERP (Emergency Response Plans) address this situation with grounding/shielding on Survival equipment. Forget the rest I would not be able to defend it if it did survival. I plan on living off the grid at that point


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## Jimmy24 (Apr 20, 2011)

Your normal 15-50 KVA pole mounted and pad mount transformers are plentiful, though if they all went bad in the field, there wouldn't be enough to replace all the bad ones.

It's the LARGE step-up and stepdown transformers in substations that will put us in a bind. They cost mega $$$$ and have 1 year lead time and 1 year to build. They are not only big, but their harmonics have to be perfect, so they can be tied to other feeders/subs if needed, just amoung many other things.

My old company only has 3-4 spares as I remember. They have 70+ subs. Other companies in same boat.

Jimmy


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## popcorn590 (Aug 29, 2010)

*ERP*

HAPPY VETERENS DAY TO ALL.
I am retired USAF from 1963 - 83. Ten years USAFSS Intell Analyst RAF Chicksand, Eng. 1964 - 68, NSA 1968-71, Osan AB, ROK 1971-74, burned out and re-trained served out last years at Vandenberg AFB, Ca. At the end of my career I was in charge of All Enlisted Quaters on the base. They also made me Head CBR Shelter Manager for all the bks. I really do me beleive many people do not understand and /or believe what can happen with a Carrington size event, or even smaller events. Large events could end up being a Specie altering moment. But, as you say all you can do is prepare. Purchasing or making Fairady (spelling) Grids for your electonics can help, but over all dissconecting from the grid from power sourses will protect most items. Again you will need an alternate power source and the one on my wish list items is from Solutions for Science with their solar generators. They have a computer and coffee machine solar gen., an 1800 watt solar gen., and now finally a 4000 watt solar gen. The 1800 and the 4000 have hook-ups for a wind turbine. If I got one, it would be put into the basement for emergency. I will be getting the quick releases for the battery cable on our cars. When not using one during the coming years of the solar maximum we will always have one vehicles disconected. Plus a good chain running from metal on the car to a deep ground. When we leave the home during the maximum for our day trips we will turn the main house breaker off. We have a 4000 watt gas gen, plus 35 gallons of gas that we stay-bil twice a year, then put in the car, and re-fill them. Plenty of candles and candle holders, bottled propane, and many emergency heating and cooking devices. The Crisis Cooker / Valcano Cooker is a really great item to have. It will use propane, wood, and charcol. Grow our own veggies, and can all our meals and veggies, meats, etc. Stock up on all staples. We started stocking up salt, sugar, flour, herbs, etc TP, PT, and more. So we beat the curve and purchased items at four year old prices. Many were half of what they are today. We also have protections for us. 
Only thing I can repeat from others:
Always prepare for the worst of times, but be happy with the best of times. But, at least prepare. 
Later,
Popcorn590


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

Popcorn, speaking of prices...

My son was telling me some statistics on grain increases. He works for a feed store and started there when he was 15. He said in the twenty years beforehand grain prices only increased about 20%, then in the last three years they have doubled two times...This is scary since grain is the basis for most of our other prices in this nation.

Grain feeds livestock, which produce eggs, milk and meat, all those prices will continue to rise. Grain increases also affect all basic food prices, flour, breads, corn and peanut products. Oats even. All the while, incomes have become stagnant, unable to keep up with those price increases.

Even so Popcorn, we live in the Pacific Northwest, we supply a large quantity of the nations wheat and most of the nations apples, pears and berries as well. All have been affected by our lagging summers. So far we have not seen the price increases here that the rest of the nation has seen, but it is coming. Who knows how long our cool summer patterns are going to last?


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## popcorn590 (Aug 29, 2010)

*Grain and food costs*

We live south of Spokane and we purchase some of our grains, and beans from our Co - AG and the prices have been pretty stable over the past four years. When we go to Cash-in-Carry or the base, to get items that are not available locally they are about double over the past four years. Fortunately we have our own fruits, or neighbor have the fruit so we are okay in that area, and we have been stalking up over the past years knowing this was coming. The world just had the 7 billionth baby about a week ago. Years ago the scientific community stated that this baby was the point of no return in regard to the ability of the earth to be able to provide for all. PLUS, the governments stupid ideas of controlling the food supply, regulating the ability to grow food, and the really stupid idea of closing food productive areas for EPA resons, well soon the human reace will be on the endangered species list. Remember that nature eventaully finds ways to control over population. Many that advocated restrictions on farming or farming on lands that have been found to have specie of life that are endangered, will regret the day they supported another specie instead of their own children and future children. 
Soylent Green anyone?????
Later, Popcorn590


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## Ponce (May 3, 2009)

In the old days we did not have all the electronics that we have now and the radios had tubes so that we didn't even know about the solar flares.......this is why I now have two tubes radios, one build on my birthday in 1940 and one build in 1942


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## popcorn590 (Aug 29, 2010)

*Reserve comms*

Great idea if you can find one, and the replacement tubes, which by the way you talk you already have. I keep Comms equip unpowered and in the basement. Also the idea of the Fareday (spelling) Grid is another good idea.
Later,
Popcorn590


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