# USDA states food price increases..



## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

Saw Fox news this morning, in passing, not fully story. They stated it as "USDA says food prices will soar in within the next year". I looked it up and the USDA's site states only 4-5% increase potential. I wonder if they have understated this, and could it be more? Other scenario is news making sensationalist headliner, with little teeth in the story?

I then got out the calculator, and put in a potential grocery bill, and everage spent per week of $200.00....a five percent increase on that bill alone would only be and extra $10....seems innocuous. So why would the news say prices would soar? 

I often wonder about the two, one making understatements to keep things under control, and the other to make better headlines. Any thoughts about this?


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## mdprepper (Jan 22, 2010)

HoppeEL4 said:


> I then got out the calculator, and put in a potential grocery bill, and everage spent per week of $200.00....a five percent increase on that bill alone would only be and extra $10....seems innocuous. So why would the news say prices would soar?


Depending on a persons financial situation, a $10 increase could be a huge amount. Some folks are living paycheck to paycheck and any cost increase in their budgets could be the difference between keeping a roof over their heads or not. JMO


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## ashley8072 (Apr 26, 2011)

A few dollars is def enough to most families in our area to sit back and realize what they need and what they can actually afford. Sugar by 5lb bag is now $3.08. I've been buying buy the 25lb bags. Now comparing prices, the 5lbers are cheaper to buy for the same amount. I told a family member not too long ago about prices going up. They said that they didn't care because they could afford it. I then asked them to recall how they felt last week when we were discussing the fuel prices. Fuel prices only goes up a few cents at a time. lol! They were then...foot in mouth. :beercheer:


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## siletz (Aug 23, 2011)

I think we need to look at recent history on this. The following link from the USDA shows that in 2009, food at home increased by 0.5% and in 2010 it increased by 0.3%. In comparison, the 4-5% increase in 2011 topped off with a 3-4% increase projected for 2012 does seem like skyrocketing.

ERS/USDA Briefing Room - Food CPI, Prices, and Expenditures: CPI for Food Forecasts

If you want to get even more depressed, the USDA stated that the average family of 4 on a "moderate" food plan in 1994 would spend $602.40 each month on food. Today, the same family of 4 would spend $1013.70!

USDA Food Plans: Cost of Food Cost of Food at Home


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## partdeux (Aug 3, 2011)

siletz said:


> I think we need to look at recent history on this. The following link from the USDA shows that in 2009, food at home increased by 0.5% and in 2010 it increased by 0.3%. In comparison, the 4-5% increase in 2011 topped off with a 3-4% increase projected for 2012 does seem like skyrocketing.
> 
> ERS/USDA Briefing Room - Food CPI, Prices, and Expenditures: CPI for Food Forecasts
> 
> ...


Be real careful when looking at food and CPI numbers. CPI is famous for "adjustments" and substitutions. If steak was in the numbers before and families moved to hamburger, then CPI for BEEF went down. If they moved from hamburger to ground turkey, CPI also shows the decrease. The same holds true for other products, i.e. the TV today has a much greater VALUE then the TV of yesterday, so they adjust to reflect that change in technology.


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## goshengirl (Dec 18, 2010)

Sugar in 5lb bags? All I see anymore is 4lb bags. It's crazy!

And it seems to me that food prices have been going up significantly for some time now, but that it's moving faster. Thank goodness for bulk buying during sales, and the food in the basement!


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## lefty (Sep 29, 2011)

remember also the food supply chain is now very long and very thin.

not that long ago it was standard practice for a grocery store to carry a larger supply now they are trying to increase their stock turm which means they have less on hand this also goes to grocery wharehouses and wholesalers. Everyone wants someone else to carry the inventory. In addition the supply line length is much longer. 25 years ago most food found in a store was grown and processed etc within a couple hundred miles, not so today. now a large amount of it comes from other countries or much further away. This exposes thefood supply chain to all sorts of dangers from political unrest to rising furl cost.


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## Jezcruzen (Oct 21, 2008)

A Drudge article this afternoon states that peanut butter is set to increase as much as 40%. A bad peanut crop and farmers growing other, more valuable, crops is cited. Peanuts and peanut butter is an ingredient in a lot of products.

I spent a bit over $300 today for groceries. We buy once a month, but do make sporadic trips back during the month to pick up Things we might have forgotten or ran out of. While a 5% increase may not seem like a lot, it doesn't mean an increase evenly across the board. Some items you/I might use often could increase much more than 5%. Coupled with increased in other areas - clothing, fuel, etc., a family could take a big hit.


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## Emerald (Jun 14, 2010)

I don't know if this has been posted here before or not but I found it fascinating and it gives you such a Whoa moment. Make sure to check out all 16 families and how much it costs per week for each.

http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1626519_1373664,00.html


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## Jezcruzen (Oct 21, 2008)

Emerald said:


> I don't know if this has been posted here before or not but I found it fascinating and it gives you such a Whoa moment. Make sure to check out all 16 families and how much it costs per week for each.
> 
> What the World Eats, Part I - Photo Essays - TIME


That is amazing!


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## SageAdvicefarmgirl (Jun 23, 2011)

siletz said:


> I think we need to look at recent history on this. The following link from the USDA shows that in 2009, food at home increased by 0.5% and in 2010 it increased by 0.3%. In comparison, the 4-5% increase in 2011 topped off with a 3-4% increase projected for 2012 does seem like skyrocketing.
> 
> ERS/USDA Briefing Room - Food CPI, Prices, and Expenditures: CPI for Food Forecasts
> 
> ...


BTW, I bought your book and loved it, my Pastor is reading it now, we've been having meetings on family preparedness in our church, and are wanting to start a ministry around t. Your book gave lots of direction! I'm recommending it and will be buying more as a Christmas gift for many in my family! Thanks!


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## Possumfam (Apr 19, 2011)

Emerald said:


> I don't know if this has been posted here before or not but I found it fascinating and it gives you such a Whoa moment. Make sure to check out all 16 families and how much it costs per week for each.
> 
> What the World Eats, Part I - Photo Essays - TIME


I couldn't get the link to work for me.


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## sillymoo (Oct 30, 2011)

What the World Eats, Part I - Photo Essays - TIME

This link should work.

I wish I only had to pay an addition 5%. Things like ground beef and milk have gone up 50% or more where I live. The cat food I usually buy is double the price it was last year. Not to mention that we are not earning as much as we used to.


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## Davarm (Oct 22, 2011)

Here in Texas we have not been hit as hard as the rest of the country but I have noticed some pretty drastic price jumps in the last year. A 64 oz bottle of canola oil is now $3.50+, this time last year, if you hunted and shopped around it could be found for about $2.25. A 48 ounce box of powdered skim milk was about $12.75 now it it cant be found for less than $17.50. And the infamous peanut butter, you could generally find an 18 oz jar of store brand on sale regularly for $.89, I just paid $2.39 today in anticipation of the %40 price hike. Butter could be found usually for $2.00 a pound and even some of the large chain stores had it on sale for as little as $1.00 a pound, now not anywhere for less han $3.00 a pound. Many other prices in the area have jumped by similar amounts but some things like apple juice had prices of $1.79 for a 64 ounce jug can be found locally at $.99. Bread, eggs, fresh milk have reamined fairly stable but, here prices have risen quite a bit more than the %4-%5.


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## Emerald (Jun 14, 2010)

Possumfam said:


> I couldn't get the link to work for me.


It was working yesterday I'll see what happened..
Sorry Possumfam-it worked yesterday and today it won't let me link it. Maybe I can find another link to it somewhere it will work.
How's this one.
http://blog.halbergphotographers.co...ood-consumption-of-families-around-the-world/
Same article but on a blog instead. same pictures and prices too.


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## Jezcruzen (Oct 21, 2008)

Something to watch for is processors adulterating or decreasing the amount of their products to delay raising prices. Devarm speaking of apple juice is a good example. "All Natural" could mean water - which is used to extend the product on the cheaper brands. Even if a product hasn't increased, or increased by much doesn't mean you are getting what you are paying for.


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

Link would not work for me either, tried all three.

My husbands entire company is all talking about it. I agree, some things might moderately go up, and some much higher. I do really feel they are understating it, and also not giving a clearer picture. Wages are staying stagnant, or loss of wages, and this is where the trouble begins.

I know some of my family members have only about three days worth of food in their homes. They simpy think it is not a big deal. I also agree that stores are only stocking as needed from their supliers. With new technology, they scan a product and the inventory is automatically adjusted, then the distribution center only palletizes and sends out what the store is currently showing they are low on. There is no more generic shipments made with excess amounts as they used to. Only the bare essentials in stock now. Another problem.

All it will take is for food prices to increase even just the 4-5% and then we have another sudden spike in energy costs...any budget is going to go right out the window.

All the people my husband works with are worried and realize this. He has suggested they all start packing away as much as they can at a time, and till under their yards for produce. I have said as much to family, even cutting back on our chickens area and making more garden space. Spring comes, more broilers. Also getting another freezer to accomodate meat sales.


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## Jezcruzen (Oct 21, 2008)

We (my wife and I) have friends... well... they are more like past acquaintances, now, who have the idea they will worry about it when it happens. Currently they are into four-wheelers, BMWs, motor homes, and whatever else consumerism they can engage in. 

Fools!


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

ok... HOW does a family in North Carolina spend $341.98 for a week and a family in Caliweirdna spend only $159.18? 

I see a LOT of junk food in the NC household and the children are teenapers, but there is quite a bit of processed food in the CA family's 'diet' as well (corndogs, pizza, cookies etc)

how do you put a price on any food you grow/raise/harvest/hunt yourself? :dunno: is it free? the cost of seed packets you bought years ago and you've been saving new generations ever since? factor your labor costs? :dunno:

I've seen that article before and all I can really say for it is that I guess it gets you thinking about doing _real_ research on the subject if you're interested, but it's hardly definitive and raises more questions (to me, anyway) than it answers. :gaah:

I guess I'll sum up with... :dunno: :surrender:


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## siletz (Aug 23, 2011)

SageAdvicefarmgirl said:


> BTW, I bought your book and loved it, my Pastor is reading it now, we've been having meetings on family preparedness in our church, and are wanting to start a ministry around t. Your book gave lots of direction! I'm recommending it and will be buying more as a Christmas gift for many in my family! Thanks!


That's great to hear! We have been able to teach classes in our church and community with this book as well. Let us know if there's anything we can do to help you!


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## gypsysue (Mar 27, 2010)

HoppeEL4 said:


> Also getting another freezer to accomodate meat sales.


I'm off-grid and we Can our meat, so I just have to ask since I sincerely don't know the answer...

Does the cost of electricity to run the freezer every month negate the amount 'saved' on meat sales?

Not to mention the initial outlay of money for the purchase?

Just wondered. A friend told me a few years ago that when she sold her freezer her electric bill dropped $20 to $25 a month. Added up over months, it comes to quite a bit. :dunno:


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## siletz (Aug 23, 2011)

I'm not sure about costs elsewhere, but we have our freezer in the barn that's on a separate meter. We have a full sized upright freezer in there as well as lights now and then and power tools as we use them. Our electricity usage for that is between $4 and $5 per month.


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## SageAdvicefarmgirl (Jun 23, 2011)

siletz said:


> That's great to hear! We have been able to teach classes in our church and community with this book as well. Let us know if there's anything we can do to help you!


I appreciate that, I'll send you a personal msg later!


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## Jaspar (Feb 3, 2010)

If you want to get even more depressed, the USDA stated that the average family of 4 on a "moderate" food plan in 1994 would spend $602.40 each month on food. Today, the same family of 4 would spend $1013.70!

USDA Food Plans: Cost of Food Cost of Food at Home[/QUOTE]

A thousand dollars? Wow. Must have two teenage boys. We have a 1 year old girl and a 4 year old boy, and we spend about $300 a month, not including eating out(not very often), on groceries.


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## Possumfam (Apr 19, 2011)

Emerald said:


> It was working yesterday I'll see what happened..
> Sorry Possumfam-it worked yesterday and today it won't let me link it. Maybe I can find another link to it somewhere it will work.
> How's this one.
> Average weekly food consumption of families around the world
> Same article but on a blog instead. same pictures and prices too.


Okay, I got it - had to scroll down below the wedding photos. I'm thinking that those with the smallest grocery bills probably grew or foraged for much of their food, and that the family from Chad probably received aid. What did stand out (much more than I would've expected) was the amount of processed foods that we eat. Wow - all that packaging and less nutrition.


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## Jezcruzen (Oct 21, 2008)

After viewing the link, I don't feel as bad on what we spend per month for groceries. I think I mentioned that we spent about $300, but we do pick up a few things from the grocery store as the month progresses. Thats for a family of three adults. Of course, I don't buy processed foods much. Cook from scratch. Usually my monthly food cost includes extras like sale items that I purchase a lot of and add to our stores. This week frozen vegetables were on sale so I bought quite a lot and am dehydrating and packaging them for later use. Stew beef was on sale so I bought five pounds and canned it yesterday. I plan on canning four whole chickens today.


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## sillymoo (Oct 30, 2011)

My husband and I went to Costco last night and now I think he finally sees the light. We bought less than usual and the bill was over $315! Even I was shell shocked. We used to spend under $200 per trip and I didn't even get things like rice and sugar this time. I pointed out how much things have increased in the short amount of time we were there last. Fancy Feast was about $12 two months ago. It was over $17 last night! There was coffee beans in one pound bags instead of three pound bags. *Everything* we normally buy went up, and quite a lot. I pointed all of this out to my husband and I could almost see the light bulb going off in his head. He has been reluctant to believe that we need to stockpile supplies because I manage all the money in the house. He has been pretty sheltered these past few years and I do not think that he really knows the prices on anything. But he didn't complain one bit when I told him that I was going back to buy a year supply of cat food since it was on sale.


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## kyhoti (Nov 16, 2008)

In the food expense photo-essay, one thing that struck me was that the lowest food bills were paid by the families who had lots of what I assume are bulk grains. The other thing I noticed seemed to be "fresh" produce/meats, which to me means that it was on the hoof or in the ground either locally or on-site. Guess I need to figure out where my catfish tanks and bunny hutches are going to go, huh?


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

The_Blob, the costs of living can be vaslty different across the nation I have found. Seems here our rents/leases and home prices were above average for some time, although that is changing recently. Our heating costs, via electric rates, is also higher. However, I have found overall our food prices here in the Pacific Northwest are much cheaper than some midwest and eastern seaboard states.

Some examples: eggs per dozen $1.35, milk $2.59, 5# flour $1.79, whole chickens .99 cents pound, 10 pound bag potatoes $2.29, apples .79 cents pound, salmon can be essentially free in spring and fall with the cost of a fishing license.......Of course for us, we have no need to buy eggs or chickens from the stores, I have hardly kept up with eggs and chicken prices, but happened to notice yesterday.

Produce prices here are pretty good I think. I wish our garden had produced a whole lot more than it did, our soil was too acidic so some things just would not grow, and then we never really warmed up enough to make things really grow. We got about 20# mixed type potatoes, most sort of smallish. No tomatoes, no carrots.....so we are heavily ammending the soil in anticipation for next year, and I am putting a lot of things in wood garden beds, it will help draw in more heat to the roots being elevated.

Today on Fox, again a discussion of food prices, specifically meat. Demand was considered the main issue for increasing meat prices.


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## Moose33 (Jan 1, 2011)

Hi HoppeEL4,
I have to agree with you about food costs varying from area to area. When my mother comes to visit from Idaho she freaks at the cost of everything in our Maine grocery stores. A gallon of milk here can run from 3.29 to 4.55 a gallon depending on the brand. Eggs run about 2.00 a dozen, plain old Gold Medal flour on sale is 2.50 for 5 pounds. I refused to buy a can of tomato soup at 1.29 a can. Between food, gas at 3.58 a gallon and heaven knows what heating oil will be I don't know how folks are going to make it. Its scary.
Take care,
Moose


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## Immolatus (Feb 20, 2011)

I found these interesting, and both originating from Bloomberg:

World food prices fall for 3rd straight month

and from 3 days later:

Food prices to remain high


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

Immolatus said:


> I found these interesting, and both originating from Bloomberg:
> 
> World food prices fall for 3rd straight month
> 
> ...


such *consistency* is always refreshing


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

HoppeEL4 said:


> The_Blob, the costs of living can be vaslty different across the nation I have found. Seems here our rents/leases and home prices were above average for some time, although that is changing recently. Our heating costs, via electric rates, is also higher. However, I have found overall our food prices here in the Pacific Northwest are much cheaper than some midwest and eastern seaboard states.
> 
> Some examples: eggs per dozen $1.35, milk $2.59, 5# flour $1.79, whole chickens .99 cents pound, 10 pound bag potatoes $2.29, apples .79 cents pound, salmon can be essentially free in spring and fall with the cost of a fishing license.......Of course for us, we have no need to buy eggs or chickens from the stores, I have hardly kept up with eggs and chicken prices, but happened to notice yesterday.
> 
> ...


I'm going to create another thread to respond to this :2thumb:


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

My son works in a feed store and they sell feed for birds as well, black oil sunflower and peanuts. He said both have recently gone up, what amounts to a 25% increase. Of course we know this includes cost from the source to the supplier and from the supplier to the feed store, yet that is what is going to happen all around. Sure maybe the food increase might be stated as insignificant, but when you start adding in all the actual costs, something the USDA is seemingly intentionally leaving out, then you start seeing larger and larger increases.

Then you have the cost of the stores that sell it to you.....


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## Woody (Nov 11, 2008)

And the added taxes. The rate may be the same but when it costs more the Govt grabs more.


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## SageAdvicefarmgirl (Jun 23, 2011)

Our local (ARK) Kroger stores have a sale on til tomorrow, Del Monte canned veg 10 for $5, Campbell soups .49 a can! I bought 5 cases!


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## HoppeEL4 (Dec 29, 2010)

Smart going there Sage!! Kroger owns our local store chain up here, Fred Meyers, and they hardly put anything on sale anymore. Though they recently came up with this one deal of "Buy 10 get $5 off". However, that means the full blown price the items would normally be.....I only do it if they are on sale and I have coupons.

Today, I was at my favorite salvaged good grocery store, Frontier Missions, and there was a 25# bag of Bobs Red Mill powdered milk, $12.00, and this could have been potentially $50 or more...I grabbed it and realized I now have a FoodSaver, and could divide it into my own smaller packages. It was my great steal. This made it about .48 cents a pound and I can't even touch boxed Carnation powdered milk for that, and Bobs Red Mill is a local company that is high quality, locally owned and local products.


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