# Big drop in the US dollar index



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

The dollar index measures the value of the US dollar against a fixed basket of other currencies.

Monday's close was 97.426.
Tuesdays close was 96.394 for a decline of 1.032 for a single day, which is huge. It's the biggest one day decline this year.
Wednesday's close was 96.010
Thursday's close was 95.547

The total declines are for 1.879 in just three days. So what does it mean? The dollar appears to be losing a lot of value in a short time. That might mean more interest in precious metals or cryptocurrencies or just other fiat currencies.

It's definitely something to watch.


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

It IS something to watch....but I would not get very worked up over it. The dollar is in the 90's when a year or two ago it was in the 70's. Plus, like everything else, it is highly manipulated. I do watch the dollar value everyday, just like I watch the world stock markets and commodity markets everyday. I watch it all in the hopes that if things do Ever turn really sour I will have a slight edge over most people and have maybe an extra day to do some last minute prepping. Gathering information never hurts you


----------



## Pessimistic2 (Jan 26, 2017)

*This likely explains it.....*

I think it's just a hiccup caused by the Fed....You'll have to click on the link to see the chart they talk about.

https://www.xm.com/forex-news-dolla...ear-to-date-defying-predictions-of-rise-16397

Excerpt: "First of all, it is worth noting that although forecasts for a rise of the dollar may have been proved wrong for now, the negative movement in the dollar has not been excessive, i.e. this is not some kind of a dollar crash.

One factor that can help to explain dollar weakness probably relates to the way the Fed, under its new Chair Janet Yellen, is communicating. Following a slight miscommunication in Yellen's very first press conference, Fed officials and the committee have gone to great lengths to reassure the market that higher interest rates were not on the committee's agenda in the near term. Although Quantitative Easing was ending, there was nothing automatic about raising interest rates higher from zero once tapering finishes.

The Fed also scrapped its forward guidance policy which said that a rise in interest rates would be considered once unemployment fell below 6.5%. The Fed backtracked from this promise recently by discrediting the unemployment measure as an indicator of economic slack, saying it would look at a more broad array of indicators. Unemployment dipped to 6.3% during April according the Bureau of Labor Statistics, although this was mostly due to long-term unemployed leaving the workforce.

The chart shows the close relationship between 10-year treasury note yields (in purple) - a good indication of long-term interest rates and the dollar index (DXY, in yellow), during the last three months. Following a peak in treasury yields around 2.80% around the beginning of April and the dollar index around 80.4, the yields and the index have since fallen to 2.57% and 79.1 respectively. This could be mostly in response to the Fed's reassurances that a rise interest rates was not on the cards for another year or so."


----------



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

hiwall said:


> It IS something to watch....but I would not get very worked up over it. The dollar is in the 90's when a year or two ago it was in the 70's. Plus, like everything else, it is highly manipulated. I do watch the dollar value everyday, just like I watch the world stock markets and commodity markets everyday. I watch it all in the hopes that if things do Ever turn really sour I will have a slight edge over most people and have maybe an extra day to do some last minute prepping. Gathering information never hurts you


As far as I know the only thing they can do to help the value of the dollar is for the Fed to talk about raising interest rates. They're finally doing that now and it's not helping.

Jim Willie said in a recent interview that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of accepting Chinese currency for oil sales. If that happens we're going to see a lot of inflation here.


----------



## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

Nevermind. Deleted for stupid post


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

BillS said:


> As far as I know the only thing they can do to help the value of the dollar is for the Fed to talk about raising interest rates. They're finally doing that now and it's not helping.
> 
> Jim Willie said in a recent interview that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of accepting Chinese currency for oil sales. If that happens we're going to see a lot of inflation here.


The dollar index we are talking about is mainly based on the dollar against the Euro. If the European Union or their central bank or the IMF bank or others make a statement it effects the dollar index. Also talk about Trump doing this or that can have a big impact on the price of the dollar. Seldom is any movement based on hard facts.
This is not a bad or a good thing...it is just the way it is. I am not disagreeing with you Bill, it is certainly worth watching.


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

Down more since the first post. Now 94.93


----------



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

The dollar index is most likely something that's watched by foreign investors in the dollar. There are a lot of foreign countries that hold dollars as well as a lot of individual investors in foreign countries. If they start losing confidence in the dollar it will eventually lead to more inflation here.

This is interesting:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...in-u-dot-s-dot-currency-dot-heres-how-we-know

Argentines Hold More Than $50 Billion in U.S. Currency. Here's How We Know

A lot of U.S. dollars are tucked away somewhere in Argentina, most likely in stacks of $100 bills. Seven years ago, the U.S. Treasury, working with the Federal Reserve and the Secret Service, estimated that in the early 1990s Argentines held $20 billion in cash, a number that by 2006 had grown to "perhaps $50 billion or more." That year there was a total of about $768 billion worth of dollar-denominated cash in the world, which means that someone in Argentina held at least 1 out of every 15 cash dollars.


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

The dollar index is about the same today as it was in 1994, 1997, 1999, 2003, 2006, and 2014. Like many things it just goes up and down.


----------



## BillS (May 30, 2011)

I'm sure the fact that the dollar is almost to its 12 month low is significant to foreign investors. Back in 2014-2015 it rose from 80 to 100 in 6 months. I think the coming drop could be bigger and faster than the rise was. 

There's no doubt that the dollar is dying and hyperinflation is coming. You can't create a trillion new dollars every year to fund the deficit without serious consequences eventually. The only thing helping the dollar to hold its value is declining money velocity.

It's worth noting that the Fed used to promise rate increases to strengthen the dollar. Now they came out early and said there won't be another rate increase. 

If they really wanted to kill the dollar all they'd have to do is stop suppressing PM prices.

I think they could force a lot of people to sell their gold if they stopped suppressing silver prices. I think most people holding gold would sell it and buy silver if silver was going up fast.


----------



## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

> There's no doubt that the dollar is dying and hyperinflation is coming. You can't create a trillion new dollars every year to fund the deficit without serious consequences eventually.


This ^^ statement would normally certainly be true. This particular time in history is slightly different by the fact that almost every other currency has also had huge amounts created in approximately the same time span. So your prediction might not come to pass this time. Only time will tell. 
If the dollar does collapse it certainly will not be the only one that does so. Before or soon after the dollar collapses other currencies will also (that is my prediction).
I know that you have some PM's and with what has been happening (especially in the last 10 years) it sure seems prudent to have PM's in hand just in case.


----------

