# First major step for USD failure?



## invision

Just saw this... I think it is the first step from moving away from the USD as the global reserve currency... IMO this will in turn lead to a devaluation of the USD on a global scale as more countries move to do this...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/26/us-brics-summit-idUSBRE92P0FR20130326

(Reuters) - China and Brazil agreed on Tuesday to trade the equivalent of up to $30 billion per year in their own currencies, moving to take almost half of their trade exchanges out of the U.S. dollar zone.


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## db2469

A bad sign indeed!


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## hiwall

Thanks for posting invision.
It is certainly a step in the wrong direction. Just another thing that 97% of our citizens will hear nothing about.


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## BillS

It's been going on for some time. Here are some parts of other stories:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/business/global/china-and-japan-in-currency-agreement.html

BEIJING - China and Japan have agreed to start direct trading of their currencies, officials announced during a visit here on Monday by Japan's prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda.

China is the world's second-largest economy while Japan is the third largest, and the currency agreement is part of a move away from using dollars. Chinese officials have said recently they would like to broaden the global use of the renminbi, also known as the yuan, and want to see more countries move away from relying on dollars as the worldwide currency.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/06/26/china-busy-signing-currency-deals/

China took one more step last week towards internationalizing the yuan, ultimately leading to the day when the Chinese currency will be a substitute for the U.S. dollar in all of China's trade with other countries.

Last Friday, China and Brazil agreed on a currency swap deal that will allow the central banks of each country to exchange local currencies worth up to 60 billion reals, or 190 billion yuan ($30 billion). The amount can be used to shore up reserves in times of crisis or to boost bilateral trade. China is Brazil's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of approximately $100 billion.

China's currency deal with Brazil follows a similar deal with Australia that was struck in March and allows for an exchange of local currencies between the Australian and Chinese central banks, worth up to 30 billion Australian dollars ($31 billion) over three years. Again, the motivation behind the deal is to support bilateral trade between the two countries which already exceeds $100 billion, reduce transaction costs and reduce reliance on the greenback.

Also this year, China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed a three-year currency swap agreement worth 35 billion yuan ($5.54 billion) in January, and a $1.6 billion deal with Turkey in February. China's bilateral trade is approximately $35 billion with the UAE and $24 billion with Turkey.

China began the process of internationalizing its currency in November 2010 when then-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced that Russia and China had decided to use their own national currencies for bilateral trade, instead of the U.S. dollar. The yuan started trading against the ruble in the Chinese bank market in Shanghai immediately, and in December 2010, began trading on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. This was the first time that the yuan had traded outside of China and Hong Kong. Bilateral trade between China and Russia is currently about $70 billion, with the two countries having a common goal of increasing trade to $200 billion by 2020.


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## invision

Yep, it's starting... And no one will see it coming... Thinking of converting $1,000 USD to yuan.... Hmmmm...


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## musketjim

hiwall said:


> Thanks for posting invision.
> It is certainly a step in the wrong direction. Just another thing that 97% of our citizens will hear nothing about.


I agree, 97% won't hear about it because of complicit media, and if they did most wouldn't care as long as they get whatever handout they get from Uncle Sugar.


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## Rhino23

Just a matter of time before our monetary system goes down, too corrupt. The stock market is artificially inflated once people realize this they'll start pulling out.


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## biobacon

It was on yahoo but it was under stories about Temporary Tattoos and David Letterman


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## invision

biobacon said:


> It was on yahoo but it was under stories about Temporary Tattoos and David Letterman


Omg - I can actually believe that, ROFLMAO...


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## CulexPipiens

The global economy is too entwined in the dollar for it to just happen (short of some disaster) so they're all working towards disconnecting themselves from the USD and the US. Once they're all where they want to be then we'll be allowed to fall and destroy ourselves. You're seeing the signs already (references above). Some countries are already moving to trading oil for PMs instead of the USD like they're "supposed to". Others are recalling their gold. The signs are all around if you just pay attention.


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## BlueShoe

That's called "decoupling". When our currency reaches the point that other nations can drop the Dollar (and our debt), we decouple from the rest and hyperinflation will result.

So the 2 billion hollow points, the initial purchase of over 2700 urban assault vehicles (more to come), proliferation of drones over our skies, declaring America part of the battlefield in the NDAA, declaring any American can be murdered without proving they pose an immediate threat, and all the other control grid appurtenances should show us something. I just can't put it all together what is going on.


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## haley4217

CulexPipiens said:


> The global economy is too entwined in the dollar for it to just happen (short of some disaster) so they're all working towards disconnecting themselves from the USD and the US. Once they're all where they want to be then we'll be allowed to fall and destroy ourselves. You're seeing the signs already (references above). Some countries are already moving to trading oil for PMs instead of the USD like they're "supposed to". Others are recalling their gold. The signs are all around if you just pay attention.


This week was the first time that I've heard of the term of disconnecting or decoupling an economy from the USD ($), so I decided to do some reading and research. I am always interested in the signs that CulexPipiens is referring to and trying to make a judgement (Guess) about the failure of the USD. One thing of interest from my reading on the internet is the definition and explaination of economic "decoupling" contained on Investopedia.

"Investopedia explains 'Decoupling'
Decoupling refers to a decrease in correlation. The concept that the world's emerging markets no longer need to depend on U.S. demand to drive economic growth, is an example of economic decoupling. Whereas, emerging markets at one point relied on the U.S. economy, many analysts now argue that some emerging markets, such as China, India and Brazil, have become sizable markets on their own, for goods and services. The argument for decoupling indicates that these economies would be able to withstand a faltering U.S. economy." 

This past week BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) completed their conference in South Africa and reached an agreement to fund and start up a development bank which would compete with, and possibly replace for many nations, the World Bank / International Monentary Fund. Additionally, China and Brazil reached a currency exchange agreement which would allow the two nations to trade in the currency of either nation without a dependency on the value of the USD or availability of acutual U S Dollars to complete the trade. It is believed that Russia and China have also reached a similar agreement or will have an agreement to facilitate the trade of oil from Russia to China without reliance on the USD.

This, IMO, has explained why China has continued to purchase questionable US Debt when all indicators would seem to point to a debt that was unsustatinable if not headed for bankruptcy. Although many have said that China purchasing US Debt has to do with a dominiation or the world economy and removing the USD as a economic standard, I would like to put that on hold for a moment and offer an alternative logic. China bought US Debt simply as a conceviably wise business decision. If China did not but the debt and the US suffered a critical failure of it's economy, China was so coupled to the US Dollar that collapse in the US would serioursly affect the Chinese ecomomy, trade between China / Russia / Brazil that it made since to "BUY" the stability of the USD for a period of time so that their economy could decouple from the USD. Something along the line of the lesser of two evils, buying bad debt long enough for you to insulate or "prep" for the possible collapse or bankruptcy. The expenditure of billions of Chinese $ to purchase US Debt has provided them with the time to grow BRICS to the point of decoupling, begin establishing monetary backing that does not depend on the value or availability of the USD and finally to purchase and bring home GOLD which likely will be the first step towards replacing the USD as the economic standard. Many forum members will not agree with GOLD being the standard to replace the USD, but remember there is still distrust between BRICS and other nations. Russia may not be immediately willing to accept the Yuan as the standard. It will take time to reach this agreement and likely Gold would be the only thing that would be accepted at first as a replacement for the USD.

Further, if you look at some of the economic indicators of BRICS and compare them to the United States we see that they have reached the point of decoupling economically from the US, with only the necessity of establishing a financial replacement for the USD in trade between the countries, as such the currancy swap agreements.

The International Monetary Fund, "World Economic OUtlook" provides some interesting comparisions between BRICS and the United States. Also, consider that it is possible that Indonisia will join BRICS soon which will make their combined economies exceed that of the US. Here are some of the telling indicators. These are 2013 estimates.

*GDP*
BRICS $16,170.98
US $16,197.96

*GDP Per Capita*
BRICS $43,669.6
US $51,056.46

*Oil Imports*
BRICS $463.515 (China & India comprise $408.00 of this total)
US $464.907

*Oil Exports*
BRICS $395.515 (Russia alone exports $288.949)
US $110.17

*Gross Government Debt % of GDP*
BRICS 40.1152% per country (Russia 9.855% China 19.507%)
US 117.724%

I believe that this "First Major Step for USD Failure" may be far more significant than many people would be willing to accept. And as has been said, we won't be seeing any of this on news outlets unless it's so far buried that we over look it.

For me, I believe that the collapse of the USD is more imminent that some expect. There have been many on the forum that have placed the collapse at a time of more than two to three years in the future. What took place this last week, not trying to overshadow the near collapse of Cyprus, lead me to believe that the failure we all expect is closer not farther. And on the subject of Cyprus, I'm also believing that the banking holiday gave Russia time to get funds out of the Cyprus banks before the funds were seized. The decoupling from the USD is also in affect allowing them to decouple from the Euro as well.

I'll save more for another post on a sign that is closer to home.


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## BillS

http://www.ibtimes.com/sorry-mates-...a-wants-cut-out-us-dollar-trade-china-1161287

Australia is seeking to bypass trading in U.S. dollars with China in an effort to avoid the commercial uncertainties that come with the recent fluctuations in the greenback. For example, just a half a year ago, the dollar traded at about $1.20 to the euro; by February, it had weakened to $1.34 per euro and now it is going for $1.27.

Eliminating the dollar in trade will be the focus of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's trip to Beijing next week. Trade with China, Australia's primary trading partner, totaled $120 billion in the last fiscal year. China buys nearly one-third of Australian exports.

"The value of such a deal would be substantial for exporters to China, especially those that import a lot from China, like mining companies, as it would remove business constraints including exchange-rate risks and transaction costs," said Australia's former ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, according to the Australian.

The Australian government has made no secret of its aims to shift away trade from the U.S. dollar, the world's primary reserve currency used in international commerce.

A government report, titled "Australia in the Asian Century," discusses Canberra's efforts to establish direct trading between the Australian dollar and the Chinese renminbi, or RMB, also referred to as the yuan. It also pushes for increasing the prominence of the RMB as a global reserve currency.

"We have held preliminary discussions with the Chinese government to explore how soon direct convertibility can be practicably achieved," the October 2012 report reads. "We are continuing these discussions, and also exploring other opportunities to work with China to support the internationalization of the RMB."

Canberra's aims to build on a $30 billion currency-swap deal with China signed last year that makes funds available for business transactions between the two countries through their respective state-run banks.

The report described the deal as "one of the largest such swaps China has entered into."

Gillard will meet with the recently elevated Chinese leaders, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, as she marks her first official visit to their country as prime minister and sets the tone for bilateral ties with Beijing.

Australia's former prime minister Kevin Rudd has already arrived in Beijing where he delivered an address on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region -- ranging from cyberwarfare to North Korean nuclear threats -- at the Chinese military's National Defense University.


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## haley4217

BillS said:


> http://www.ibtimes.com/sorry-mates-...a-wants-cut-out-us-dollar-trade-china-1161287
> 
> Australia is seeking to bypass trading in U.S. dollars with China in an effort to avoid the commercial uncertainties that come with the recent fluctuations in the greenback.


Additional monetary decoupling from the USD in preperation for a failure of the US Dollar market.

In addition to the decoupling efforts by the nations discussed in this post and my prior post, there was also recent news on the home front which has me concerned about the timing of a collapse.

The following came out on Market Watch a couple of days ago.

"The New York Stock Exchange set new circuit breaker thresholds for the second quarter, a measure that is meant to guard against extreme market volatility.

Circuit breaker measures call for a pause in trading if the Dow Jones Industrial Average falls roughly 10% in a single day, and tighter restrictions if it drops 20% or 30%. The thresholds are reset each quarter to account for changes in the value of the index. The new levels are effective Monday.

Under the new calculation, a drop of 1,450 points in the Dow before 2 p.m. New York time would trigger the first halt. Trading would be halted for one hour if the drop occurs before 2 p.m., for 30 minutes if between 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. and not halted if the drop occurs at 2:30 p.m. or later, unless there is a level 2 halt.

A decline of 2,900 points before 1 p.m. will halt trading for two hours, or for one hour if between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. or halted for the remainder of the day if the drop is reached at 2 p.m. or later. A decline of 4,350 points would halt trading for the remainder of the day regardless of when the drop occurs.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said in June it had approved tighter limits for thresholds that prompt trading pauses. The changes came as a result of the May 6, 2010, flash crash, a 30-minute period of wild market swings that took regulators months to understand, though some still dispute the causes."

This changes the first halt if there is a drop of 1,450 points before 2 PM, the prior level was twice that at 2,900. Additionally, NYSE / Euronext has changed the monitor which would trigger the halt from the DJIA to the S&P 500, to give the monitor a broader spectrum view of the market instead of just "blue chip" stocks.

Now, here's my question and concern. Eleven (11) quarterly adjustments have come and gone since the May 6, 2010 "flash crash", but they all of a sudden make this change NOW. This of course catches my eye as a signal with the recent problems in Cyprus but also almost in the same breath as when China, Russia, Brazil and now Australia are decoupling themselves from the USD.

I know that this will probably spark some heated exchanges with the forum members who are still in the market and may believe that it's got some legs left. Just so everyone is clear on my standpoint, I lost faith in the market and have been out for almost a year and a half now. So, my interpretation of this "sign" comes from someone who believes the market is going to crash.

Any thoughts about timing, the likelyhood of a major market correction (crash) and my interpretation of this event.


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## hiwall

I was making most of my money as a day-trader until about 6 months ago when I lost my nerve. I think the market will continue to rise to maybe 15,000 but I do think it will fall this year.


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## Immolatus

tenOC said:


> So the 2 billion hollow points, the initial purchase of over 2700 urban assault vehicles (more to come), proliferation of drones over our skies, declaring America part of the battlefield in the NDAA, declaring any American can be murdered without proving they pose an immediate threat, and all the other control grid appurtenances should show us something. I just can't put it all together what is going on.


I'm too scared to really try to think about it. Whats the end game? Certainly seems like theyre preparing for 'something'.

To the OP-This will continue to happen until its completely out of the F3Ds control. Right now, they are propping up all the Western banks, the .gov, and the stock market (which is one reason I am still in). It will reach a point where their efforts will go for naught and it will all collapse. All of these deals which all seem to revolve around China will end up crushing the USD, rendering it worthless soon enough.
I see the writing on the wall getting larger and scarier, but I dont think the bulk of the population in the US is paying any attention. I read lots of talk about people waking up, but I just dont see it.


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## haley4217

Immolatus said:


> I'm too scared to really try to think about it. Whats the end game? Certainly seems like theyre preparing for 'something'.
> 
> All of these deals which all seem to revolve around China will end up crushing the USD, rendering it worthless soon enough.
> I see the writing on the wall getting larger and scarier, but I dont think the bulk of the population in the US is paying any attention. I read lots of talk about people waking up, but I just dont see it.


You're exactly correct this is scary. With all due respect to the members with alternative views, I believe the end game is nearing a close and the light at the end of the tunnel is the train getting ready to run us over. As we read though the post on this forum, and others, the collapse is seen in many different ways where the dollar survives in some form, i. e. a loaf of bread cost $1,000.

What struck me in the last week is the belief that the USD will not survive, basically there will be no difference between a dollar bill and a scrap piece of paper or Monopoly money.

So, if the dollar ceases to exist here; how do we value something after TSHTF?

My whole life has been based on the value of the USD. I know how much it cost to buy something, I know my silver dollar is worth $28 USD. What is it worth when there is no more USD.

I think like you people are waking up, but we don't see it. Because; the magnitude of the failure that faces us still eludes many and the timing us still at best a guess on our part. I told my wife last week... All we can do is prepare ourselves as best we can, try to help those close to us and prepare ourselves for the fact that a lot of people will not survive when it happens and there is nothing we will be able to do for them. If they can't or won't wake up we can't make them.


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## Merlin

*Just my thoughts on this*

So many points made in this thread..All Very Good. would like to give my opinion Here are some of the ramblings of a Rogue trader myself 1st the decoupling started by Russia and china and Iran last year but all the points made are valid Our world bank status started after ww2 England was broke.. ours is based on oil all oil traded must be in US dollars opec nations agreement so look who is buying our bonds that we have US is taking short term debt refinancing with long term and being sold as bonds.. in 1960 the worlds 10 largest banks
1960 ALL BANKS ARE AMERICAN
1.Bank of America xx
2.Chase Manhattan xx
3.City Bank of NY xx
4.Chemical Bank of NY xxx
5.Morgan Guaranty & Trust xxx
6.Manufacturers Hanover xxx
7.Bank of California xxx
8.Security First xxx
9.Banker's Trust of NY xxx
10.First National Bank of Chicago xxxx

1970 
1.Bank of America xxxx
2.Citicorp xxxxx
3.Chase Manhattan xxxx
4.Barclays 
5.Manufacturers Hanover 
6.J.P Morgan Bank xxxxx
7.National Westminster 
8.First Interstate Bancorp xxxxx
9.Banco Nazionale del Lavaro 
10.Chemical Bank of NY xxxxx

1986 
1.Dai-Ichi Kangyo 
2.Citicorp xxxxxx
3.Fuji Bank 
4.Sumitomo 
5.Mitsubishi UFJ 
6.Banque Nationale de Paris 
7.Sanwa Bank 
8.Credit Agricole 
9.Bank of America xxxxx

1995 No American banks
10.Credit Lyonnais 
1.Sanwa Bank 
2.Dai-lchi Kangyo 
3.Fuji Bank 
4.Sumitomo Bank 
5.Sakura Bank 
6.Mitsubishi Bank 
7.Norinchukin Bank 
8.Industrial Bank of Japan 
9.Mitsubishi Trust & Banking Corp 
10.Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan

2006 
1.UBS 
2.Barclays 
3.BNP Paribas 
4.Citigroup xxxxxxxx
5.HSBC 
6.RBS 
7.Credit Agricole 
8.Mitsubishi UFJ 
9.Deutsche Bank 
10.Bank of America xxxxx

2012 
1.Deutsche Bank 
2.Mitsubishi UFJ 
3.HSBC 
4.BNP Paribas 
5.Japan Post Bank 
6.ICBC China 
7.Credit Agricole 
8.Barclays 
9.RBS 
10.JP Morgan Chase xxxxxxxx
So as for the market most of all countries are printing money quantitative easing so far our markets have shown the best improvement from the 2008-2009 crash to 666 on the s and p we are now at all time high as of Thursday 1569.16 at close 1 to 1 Fibonacci is 1578 normal bull market 4-6 years we just passed 4 year mark so are we do for re-trancement yes when who knows but its coming some say the s and p will go to the 1.28 or 1.5 before re-trancement As for me I am in the market but I look and use bracket stops to get me out no sense passing on the free money ... now as for those of us that follow or are in the market you may have noticed the strangeness of gold, The US Dollar,, The Euro , Price of oil how they would react to each other 1 goes up others go down all most like clock work until 1-2 years ago then and now the market has been behaving funny like... look y will see .. As for the banks in Cypress that's a small news story for the public to react to its like Saber rattling in N Korea Remember if we are listing or watching it on the news it has already happened and the market already reacted this was just my 1.382 cents worth there is a lot to fear and a lot to ignore


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## Merlin

*Sorry forgot the point*

The point I was trying to make all world governments are in trouble so put it a odd way we are the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry


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## BillS

haley4217 said:


> So, if the dollar ceases to exist here; how do we value something after TSHTF?


I believe that the value of things will be based on relative cost to each other or based on what silver has been. In other words, a 90% silver dime is worth about $2. A loaf of bread costs approximately $2. So a 90% silver dime will buy a loaf of bread.

I think after it hits the fan there will be wild swings in what things will cost. It will depend on what someone has and what they want. I have apples. You have beets but I don't like beets. I'd probably do the trade anyway and hope to find someone who wants beets since beets last longer than apples.


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## invision

Wow, I am gone for a few days enjoying some weekend relaxation and this thread took off... Very nice comments all.

As for the automatic stop gaps or circuit breakers in the market... Yes, they are adjusted quarterly like clock work. What is surprising me though is the numbers stated above, are LARGER losses before the circuit breaker is triggered in comparison to Q1 2013... Each phase of the circuit breaker is A HIGHER loss... However, in regards to a bull run, yes - a bull run historically is 4-5 and maybe 6 years, we have been on a solid bull run in our market for the last 4 years greatly in part to the variety of QEs the fed reserve has implemented to keep them running. If you read some US news sources - they are forecasting any potential slow down - except 1 or 2 on Fox... But other European sites such as Reuters, FT, etc are starting to have more articles claiming or warning that a US market retraction is heading our way. So raising the circuit breakers does not make sense, UNLESS if a retraction occurs, they actually want to enable traders to pull more money out quicker if it starts to drop... Meaning more volume of sells can be places and even though the market is crashing, more trades can complete before the circuit breaker is triggered for the 1 hr, 2 hr, or 1 day pause takes effect. 

IMO - with the fed continuing to inflate the market with QE, then we will see the can continue to be kicked down the road for a while. How long, no clue... However, it seems to me, as if this is almost a stall plan for the inevitable - let me see if I can make my point... Right now the fed is on purpose kicking the can, same with congress - but at the same time it is allowing the decoupling by BRIC, as well as TIMPS - Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines - which are also emerging economies that are becoming less dependent upon USD, not to mention the recent China/Australia pacts for trading without USD. It is almost as if the fed and such are giving other nations TIME to uncouple... Maybe they are doing this in the hopes of foreign aid to help lesson the demand from our debt holders not if, but when we finally file bankruptcy. However, I can't see these countries being very helpful to us... Yes, we have given aid to them year after year, but in reality they are not going to be as "stupid" as us in returning the favor. Because even though their economic numbers are becoming as large as USD - from other post - they will also be hit somewhat when USD collapses... 

I also believe that there are a ton of other indicators starting to break through the ice and surface right now... The fact oil/food is not counted in inflation figures is keeping inflation reports lower than actuality. The under-employed and drop offs in our own unemployment numbers again are keep true numbers from being released. 3 years ago, there was a wide spread report of "shadow inventory" in the housing market - non-listed foreclosures that alone was 2.5-3 years worth of inventory owned by the banks...right now, in talking to realtor friends, they are telling me we are starting to see a buyers market due to low inventory, but if you look at existing home sales over the last 3 years, we should still have 1.5-2 years of shadow inventory... But it has disappeared from any reports. Additionally, look at the reports out lately that keep getting re-adjusted - what was the last one Q4 GDP was down, then re-adjusted to be .1% positive... Because 2 straight quarters would define a recession in the economy... IMO - we are still in the same recession that was declared in 07, but the fed and others have used fuzzy math to create a false recovery... It was needed for election purposes and to justify the spending. Finally, what also doesn't make sense is the sudden reports of DHS buying ammo, armored vehicles, citizen corps, drone usage inside US, etc etc etc.... 

However, what I am not understanding... Is Gold has lost $200 in last 6 months, and silver has dropped $7 in same time .... I understand that the USD has risen in value during this same timeframe - in part due to euro stats, but as because of currency "wars" by Japan/China - & the market is setting new records daily.... yet, I would think more money managers would start transitioning to G&S unless they are being greedy and have the blinders on....

So how soon will it come to a head? 6 months, 1 year, 3 years or 5 years? I am thinking we are starting to see the downward spiral starting to speed up.. But that again is just IMO....


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## haley4217

invision said:


> Wow, I am gone for a few days enjoying some weekend relaxation and this thread took off... Very nice comments all.
> 
> As for the automatic stop gaps or circuit breakers in the market... Yes, they are adjusted quarterly like clock work. What is surprising me though is the numbers stated above, are LARGER losses before the circuit breaker is triggered in comparison to Q1 2013... Each phase of the circuit breaker is A HIGHER loss... However, in regards to a bull run, yes - a bull run historically is 4-5 and maybe 6 years, we have been on a solid bull run in our market for the last 4 years greatly in part to the variety of QEs the fed reserve has implemented to keep them running. If you read some US news sources - they are forecasting any potential slow down - except 1 or 2 on Fox... But other European sites such as Reuters, FT, etc are starting to have more articles claiming or warning that a US market retraction is heading our way. So raising the circuit breakers does not make sense, UNLESS if a retraction occurs, they actually want to enable traders to pull more money out quicker if it starts to drop... Meaning more volume of sells can be places and even though the market is crashing, more trades can complete before the circuit breaker is triggered for the 1 hr, 2 hr, or 1 day pause takes effect.


Invision I saw the raised circuit breakers as well but presumed an error was made in reporting the story as it made no sense to me for the Lowe level circuit breaker to come down but the longer term breaker to increase. So, there is a circuit breaker for one hour to give pause an time to get the order in place. Then it opens up and the traders start pulling money out of the market, with an increased circuit breaker level to get more out before it shuts down again. It makes perfect sense now.

Unfortunately many people could get hurt bad by this move. Glad I'm totally out.


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## haley4217

Merlin said:


> So many points made in this thread..All Very Good. would like to give my opinion Here are some of the ramblings of a Rogue trader myself 1st the decoupling started by Russia and china and Iran last year but all the points made are valid Our world bank status started after ww2 England was broke.. ours is based on oil all oil traded must be in US dollars opec nations agreement so look who is buying our bonds that we have US is taking short term debt refinancing with long term and being sold as bonds.. in 1960 the worlds 10 largest banks
> 
> So as for the market most of all countries are printing money quantitative easing so far our markets have shown the best improvement from the 2008-2009 crash to 666 on the s and p we are now at all time high as of Thursday 1569.16 at close 1 to 1 Fibonacci is 1578 normal bull market 4-6 years we just passed 4 year mark so are we do for re-trancement yes when who knows but its coming some say the s and p will go to the 1.28 or 1.5 before re-trancement As for me I am in the market but I look and use bracket stops to get me out no sense passing on the free money ... now as for those of us that follow or are in the market you may have noticed the strangeness of gold, The US Dollar,, The Euro , Price of oil how they would react to each other 1 goes up others go down all most like clock work until 1-2 years ago then and now the market has been behaving funny like... look y will see .. As for the banks in Cypress that's a small news story for the public to react to its like Saber rattling in N Korea Remember if we are listing or watching it on the news it has already happened and the market already reacted this was just my 1.382 cents worth there is a lot to fear and a lot to ignore


Merlin, I've thought a lot about your post, particularly about being in the market to make more money. I believe everyone has got to make their own individual choice as it relates to monetary issues such as buying PM, staying in the market to increase worth, cashing in savings or 401k's and converting dollars to other tangible items. Here's my take for the $0.02 it's worth. My income or increasing of wealth $$$$, is limited to what I must have to pay a few bills. The only thing we owe is a small mortgage payment each month. Everything else is just electric, water, phone, Internet and food. On top of that I look at how much do I need to buy ammo, junk silver, or preps. The basis of this is two fold.

1. If I build $10,000 additional in USD backed savings, bank accounts, stocks, or simply cash in the mattress.... Someday soon all this will mean to me is that I have some paper I can use to start a fire with or to till into the soil in my garden.
2. The greatest asset that I can build upon today, IMHO, is time. How much time can I devote to getting prepared and getting things done. How much more can I learn. How many more skills can I gain. If I take time to chase $, it's taking time away that I could be using to get prep work done.

Again. It works for me and my family but it may not be an appropriate route for others. Alternatively someone my be prepping by making money in the market and moving it into another local to convert it from USD to another currency. I have heard many express interest and talk about the monetary safety of Hong Kong.


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## Merlin

haley4217 said:


> Merlin, I've thought a lot about your post, particularly about being in the market to make more money. I believe everyone has got to make their own individual choice as it relates to monetary issues such as buying PM, staying in the market to increase worth, cashing in savings or 401k's and converting dollars to other tangible items. Here's my take for the $0.02 it's worth. My income or increasing of wealth $$$$, is limited to what I must have to pay a few bills. The only thing we owe is a small mortgage payment each month. Everything else is just electric, water, phone, Internet and food. On top of that I look at how much do I need to buy ammo, junk silver, or preps. The basis of this is two fold.
> 
> 1. If I build $10,000 additional in USD backed savings, bank accounts, stocks, or simply cash in the mattress.... Someday soon all this will mean to me is that I have some paper I can use to start a fire with or to till into the soil in my garden.
> 2. The greatest asset that I can build upon today, IMHO, is time. How much time can I devote to getting prepared and getting things done. How much more can I learn. How many more skills can I gain. If I take time to chase $, it's taking time away that I could be using to get prep work done.
> 
> Again. It works for me and my family but it may not be an appropriate route for others. Alternatively someone my be prepping by making money in the market and moving it into another local to convert it from USD to another currency. I have heard many express interest and talk about the monetary safety of Hong Kong.


Well Now based on what you have said, as I do not consider most of what I do as prepping but it fits in really nice with prepping.. When I buy or do something I try to upgrade thinking of how it will integrate into the future events such as when purchasing household items or things for shop or property will it save me money??? will it increase my comfort when the SHTF or will it offer me better protection from future events More energy efficiency in LED light bulbs and other electrical items makes for the need of a smaller generator and or less fuel consumption. the money spent now on items like a propane generator makes for a better future no worry's about fuel spoil or storage in underground tanks .. I try to add to my education and financial worth as part of life and prepping.This includes buying now for later use or bartter . As you said this fits with skills and time Money can save time and time spent can save Money its all a balancing act
as for the stock market it is something I enjoy it is a challenge,I am not a investor just a speculator as I spend little time watching TV and as you put it and I Quote 
Again. It works for me and my family but it may not be an appropriate route for others. Alternatively someone my be prepping by making money in the market and moving it into another local to convert it from USD to another currency. I have heard many express interest and talk about the monetary safety of Hong Kong this Hong Kong part I do not know about could be hard to get your money back


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## haley4217

Merlin said:


> Well Now based on what you have said, as I do not consider most of what I do as prepping but it fits in really nice with prepping.. When I buy or do something I try to upgrade thinking of how it will integrate into the future events such as when purchasing household items or things for shop or property will it save me money??? will it increase my comfort when the SHTF or will it offer me better protection from future.
> 
> I try to add to my education and financial worth as part of life and prepping.This includes buying now for later use or bartter .


Well put Merlin. We all are dealing with, IMO, as this thread discusses the end of the USD$. In what ever way we can, even to the point that we may not consider ourselves a prepper or fit the typical definition of a prepper we each do what is necessary to prepare. The financial condition of the US,and for that fact much of the world, is rapidly deteriorating or approaching collapse and we make our own financial decisions to as you state; "increase my comfort when the SHTF or will it offer me better protection from future".

If more of us make many of the same sound sensible choices, that fit our life and our family, to deal with what the future holds for us; then it gives me hope for the survival of our species and our cultures.

Hopefully more will read your post and see that "chance favors the prepared mind".


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## partdeux

haley4217 said:


> What struck me in the last week is the belief that the USD will not survive, basically there will be no difference between a dollar bill and a scrap piece of paper or Monopoly money.


Dollar bill has no value. What it has is the trust that it can be exchanged for something of value. Trust is all that is holding this game together.


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## haley4217

partdeux said:


> Dollar bill has no value. What it has is the trust that it can be exchanged for something of value. Trust is all that is holding this game together.


So, does that mean that the recent actions of Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa and Australia (and who knows else that we haven't heard of) to trade in Other Than Dollars is the failure of the trust "glue" that is holding the house of cards together?

Now, here's my question for you - Does the dollar collapse when the world economy looses faith in it as a value or does it take a loss of faith in it's value by the American public?


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## Merlin

haley4217 said:


> So, does that mean that the recent actions of Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa and Australia (and who knows else that we haven't heard of) to trade in Other Than Dollars is the failure of the trust "glue" that is holding the house of cards together?
> 
> Now, here's my question for you - Does the dollar collapse when the world economy looses faith in it as a value or does it take a loss of faith in it's value by the American public?


Here is something I had a thought about when the agreement was made for oil to trade in US dollars their was also promise that part of the payment that the US made was to be in gold one of the reason's we had much cheaper gas prices so at that time was it a matter of trust in the US dollar or was it the gold and would this explain where all of our gold went if it is truly missing I do not think the public has all of the facts.. And on the other side is this Decoupling of the dollar may work to our advantage to get us out of being the world currency if all countries slowly swap to their Owen for trade based on some PM or Moon Rocks Just maybe IMO then we would be one step closer to the One World Currency And Government.... Just so you know I am not for world government and that makes for a whole new Thread and Post But you know its been the shadow over in the corner everyone looks at


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## Immolatus

> IMO - with the fed continuing to inflate the market with QE, then we will see the can continue to be kicked down the road for a while. How long, no clue... However, it seems to me, as if this is almost a stall plan for the inevitable - let me see if I can make my point... Right now the fed is on purpose kicking the can, same with congress - but at the same time it is allowing the decoupling by BRIC, as well as TIMPS - Turkey, Indonesia, Mexico and the Philippines - which are also emerging economies that are becoming less dependent upon USD, not to mention the recent China/Australia pacts for trading without USD. It is almost as if the fed and such are giving other nations TIME to uncouple... Maybe they are doing this in the hopes of foreign aid to help lesson the demand from our debt holders not if, but when we finally file bankruptcy. However, I can't see these countries being very helpful to us... Yes, we have given aid to them year after year, but in reality they are not going to be as "stupid" as us in returning the favor. Because even though their economic numbers are becoming as large as USD - from other post - they will also be hit somewhat when USD collapses...


The only way I see this could even be a remote possibility is if the Central Banks of the world are all in it together. The F3D cant honestly think that the BRICS or TIMPS (you just made that up, didnt you? Yes, I had to search that term) will rescue or aid the US. Mexico would get crushed in the event of a dollar collapse.

As for being in the market in general, I completely understand many not wanting to be involved. I dont want to be either, but I dont see any choice unless I choose to ignore it altogether. With it being so incredibly manipulated towards the upside (at least right now until the bubble pops) I just have to be along for the ride. Maybe I'd be better off not paying attention and focusing elsewhere, but I cant put all my money into pm's, can I? We could (anything is possible) all be wrong about the whole collapse thing, or about some huge (an unknown unknown?) detail we are missing, and they could just as easily get creamed at any time. I think that the paper pm markets should be (in theory) be keeping them up almost as much as keeping them down. Arent they generating tons of 'artificial' demand that wouldnt otherwise be there?


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## invision

Immolatus said:


> The only way I see this could even be a remote possibility is if the Central Banks of the world are all in it together. The F3D cant honestly think that the BRICS or TIMPS (you just made that up, didnt you? Yes, I had to search that term) will rescue or aid the US. Mexico would get crushed in the event of a dollar collapse.
> 
> As for being in the market in general, I completely understand many not wanting to be involved. I dont want to be either, but I dont see any choice unless I choose to ignore it altogether. With it being so incredibly manipulated towards the upside (at least right now until the bubble pops) I just have to be along for the ride. Maybe I'd be better off not paying attention and focusing elsewhere, but I cant put all my money into pm's, can I? We could (anything is possible) all be wrong about the whole collapse thing, or about some huge (an unknown unknown?) detail we are missing, and they could just as easily get creamed at any time. I think that the paper pm markets should be (in theory) be keeping them up almost as much as keeping them down. Arent they generating tons of 'artificial' demand that wouldnt otherwise be there?


Uh, no I didn't make up the term TIMPS... I read Reuters and other international financial news sources daily and that term has been around for a while. There is another group now, but I forget its acronym... If the dollar got crushed, why do you think Mexico would get crushed... Yes a lot of their trade is bought by us, but let's face it, they are practically a 3rd world country. Would it really hurt them that bad? The same could be said, if the USD fails, then so would China and Europe's economies fail.. We maybe the largest buyer for some, but China is quickly learning to diversify its trade, making them less dependent upon just us buying from them. I am not saying it couldn't trigger a depression in other countries, in fact I think it will... However, to me these are tell tale signs that other countries are trying to ready themselves for our implosion.... Make sense?

You are right, something could come along and save us from ruin. Listening to the likes of Hannity and such - they are starting to say natural gas could be our financial savior... But let's face facts (IMO)... IF that were to be ramped up, it could boost our GPD, create more jobs, create more revenue (tax money), but with our current direction of leadership, it would also probably increase spending on entitlements... Hell we haven't lived within our means for many many years... Those in leadership, are not smart enough to pay down any principle with surplus, they just like to go shopping 1000% of the time... And this leads me back to decoupling the dollar... With zero true "value" to the USD, the amount of current and future debt, if more counties remove the use of the USD for buying/selling their goods/services, gold, and oil... Then the perceived value of the dollar will fall faster than the yen did yesterday... I think the impact from BRICS and TIMPS, etc won't be felt for 2-3 years... UNLESS oil is switched completely, and yes their is a strong movement to remove USD from oil... If that happens (again IMO), the USD is done for...

To answer another post in regards to decoupling and devaluation- IMO - decoupling the dollar, with our significant debt as a nation, will only cause the collapse of the USD... It is all a part of the on going currency wars. Right now, we started it really when we turned on QE1-3... Because we devalued our dollar by 33% or so... Meaning - that debt when interest and principle is payed is worth less to our bond buyers if our dollar is weaker in comparison to their currency. In return, Japan lowered their yen about 3 months ago causing the yen:USD to go up significantly... And now with their own $1.xT QE program, we will definitely see an increased upward swing in that same ratio - say 125 yen to $1 USD ratio possibility???

The thing about decoupling is it will cause devaluation both here in the US and across the globe. When you have devaluation in a currency you typically can see inflation increasing, with the fed shooting their last "money shot" - I really don't see a way for them to stop inflation turning into hyperinflation....

Am I wrong?


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## haley4217

Not going to quote the previous posts for sake of space and time. 

First - Everyone that is reading these threads should take into consideration that the value that is gained is the different approach to preparation and the devaluation or collapse of the USD$. IMO, this is not a one size fits all situation where everyone must look at the financial situation of not only the US but also themselves and make an informed decision. 

Second - If one looks to grow their wealth putting all of their eggs in one basket is likely not a good idea. As Immolatus said, you can't put all of your money in precious metals, nor would you want to. Some members believe that PM's are the wrong way to go. i.e. You can't eat gold. As Merlin said a few posts ago. "When I buy or do something I try to upgrade thinking of how it will integrate into the future events such as when purchasing household items or things for shop or property will it save me money??? will it increase my comfort when the SHTF or will it offer me better protection from future events....." So, an alternative approach to consider is that we can make money, through the stock market if that is what we choose, and then convert this gained wealth into items which may not be considered prepping but do have a value for us in the future. You can't eat gold, but you can use a propane generator to supply electricty if the grid goes down.

Third... As Invision said and as has been discussed in previous post. Decoupling from the USD is happening, wether it is BRICS or TIMPS or Australia or Japan or Texas or Utah. There is a movement where economies are positioning themselves to not depend on the value or possibly even the existence of the USD. Particularly if you look at the press releases and statements from the BRICS conference, they acknowledge not only a dependance on the dollar for value but also the availability of dollars for trading". My point here is that decoupling to some extent your own economy from the USD seems to be a sound move, IMHO. I'm not saying that you should take all of your dollars and convert them to Peso's or Yuan, but in my move they are being converted to some tangible items that will hold their value and have a barter value in the future. Just so everyone knows.... I'm long and strong on junk silver. I like the potential, value and possible barter use of junk silver dimes and quarters.

Forth, and I promise briefly... Natural Gas. Sounds good and may one day be a viable energy source that can save the US. Not likely soon. I live in an area of West Texas where oil and gas production is in full swing. I was told from a very reliable source within one of the largest local producing companys, that they burn off thousands of dollars every day in natural gas. Why, there is no way to market it for consumption except in certain metropolitan areas for home consumption. There is such a huge supply, here in West Texas at least, that the price will not support piping it even 60 miles to tie into a cross country pipeline to put the gas in the market. The holders of natural gas deposits, at least in my neck of the woods aren't seeing a change in the consumption (hence the price) for quite some time. Not likely in time to help the USD slide toward the precipice.

For what it's worth this is offered for the readers of this thread to consider, examine, validate, invalidate or ignore as it fits their situation and belief.


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## partdeux

haley4217 said:


> So, does that mean that the recent actions of Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa and Australia (and who knows else that we haven't heard of) to trade in Other Than Dollars is the failure of the trust "glue" that is holding the house of cards together?
> 
> Now, here's my question for you - Does the dollar collapse when the world economy looses faith in it as a value or does it take a loss of faith in it's value by the American public?


the intention of the USD being the world's reserve currency was a stable exchange currency. All those countries trading amongst themselves, will only work as long as they trust the value of the currency. Countries will attempt to control their currency for their own benefit.

USD is more than the "glue" that holds the house of cards together, it is the cards.


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## UKzilla

That is a really bad sign, but being ex military I can tell you the real sign is when petro dollars use a different currency aka OIL starts trading in a new currency. This is the #1 reason we are in so many wars, to keep countries using our currency. Libya was invaded because they planned to introduce a gold backed dinar to price OPEC traded oil.


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## invision

Oh, and please don't think I am one that believes you should invest in only PMs or just one thing...


Personally, I can't do stocks to much regulations due to clients... So I concentrate in PMs... And I have a very well rounded living trust (land, cash on hand, CDs, mutuals, stocks, bonds, PMs, etc).... 

I think it is wise to divest in as many things as possible, and you should use your money to grow more money... I was raised on the rule of 72...


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## LincTex

partdeux said:


> All those countries trading amongst themselves, will only work as long as they trust the value of the currency. Countries will attempt to control their currency for their own benefit.
> 
> USD is more than the "glue" that holds the house of cards together, it is the cards.


I agree - - all great deals start off with a smile and a handshake, but that doesn't mean that over time the deal never goes sour. If a country can get the upper hand by manipulating their currency, then they will most certainly try to do so.


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