# Been waiting for this one...



## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Surprisingly the economist is from California... But I have been waiting for someone to start saying "we need to add the off the book debt AND this years unfunded liabilities to our current national debt". Scary to think it is $16.8T - mind blowing to see $88T... No way we can keep the house of cards up for much longer...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-US-national-debt-actually-86-8TRILLION.html


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## cowboyhermit (Nov 10, 2012)

Puts all those "good years" in a different light when people start realizing none of it was paid for. Cheap food, etc, etc lose some of their allure when the bill comes due.


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## Clarice (Aug 19, 2010)

Gee just when I thought everything was getting better. LOL


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

I thought total federal government debt and unfunded liabilities were over $200 trillion. Not that it matters that much. The most significant figure in my view is that unfunded liabilities grew by $8.6 trillion over the last two years or by $4.3 trillion a year. The official budget is $3 trillion and tax revenues are $2 trillion. The only way the government can survive is by massive entitlement cuts and they're not going to happen. There will come a time when entitlement payments will just stop.


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## PrepN4Good (Dec 23, 2011)

They may as well do it. What difference does it make (a la Hillary) if the debt is $16 trillion or $16 Quadrillion...? Either way, it'll never get paid back. So who cares? :ignore:


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## goshengirl (Dec 18, 2010)

BillS said:


> I thought total federal government debt and unfunded liabilities were over $200 trillion.


No matter what it is, it's a bigger number than I can wrap my brain around...


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## cowboyhermit (Nov 10, 2012)

goshengirl said:


> No matter what it is, it's a bigger number than I can wrap my brain around...


The human mind really isn't good at dealing with these kind of numbers, not exactly the kind of thing we can visualize. Unfortunately this is used by tptb to their advantage


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

BillS said:


> There will come a time when entitlement payments will just stop.


That is the biggest point. I don't see gradual cutbacks of a program here and program there, I imagine the doors of any said office will just close and never reopen.


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

BillS said:


> ... There will come a time when entitlement payments will just stop.


Think of the recent bankruptcy of Detroit Michigan.

Union and City Pensioners are screaming that their retirement benefits are threaten and want the Federals to compensate!


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

TheLazyL said:


> Think of the recent bankruptcy of Detroit Michigan.
> 
> Union and City Pensioners are screaming that their retirement benefits are threaten and want the Federals to compensate!


One more reason to prep and a good reason to have a BOL outside the US.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

I'll disagree with the basic premise a bit.

Yes, if programs continue to expand at the current rate, benefits aren't cut, and future costs aren't discounted back to present value; the debt is at least $70 trillion. *But,* that's not really a realistic forecast of future liabilities.

The 2 biggest off balance sheet liabilities are Social Security and Medicare.

From what I recall, Social Security is now scheduled to go bust around 2031 or so. *At that point and unless something is done before then to stabilize the trust fund (probably already too late),* recipients will only receive about 75% of their earned benefits which will come from those who are paying into the system at that time. Again from what I recall, that 75% is fairly stable and grows higher as we approach 2100.

As far as Medicare goes, expect premiums to rise along with some sort of long term cap on what Medicare will reimburse. They've been cutting the reimbursements to doctors for years, and I suspect that may continue or a freeze will be instituted. Either way, I imagine the number of doctors who'll accept Medicare will continue to drop. Once Obamacare kicks in, I suspect the number of doctors who'll accept any sort of insurance will drop significantly and a preference will be given to cash customers.

England has socialized medicine and doctors there are required to see 20 or 25 patients/day under the system. Those 20 or 25 patients have to wait in a fairly long line (~6 weeks back in the 90s) just to get in to see a doctor. The doctor handles those patients in the morning (4 hours or about 10-12 minutes/patient) before seeing his cash or private insurance patients in the afternoons. The wait for the cash/private insurance patients is usually half a day to a day. See what we have to look forward to in our new system?

The bigger issue in the near term is what happens when (if?) the economy starts to recover. When interest rates start to climb off of their historic lows, the service costs on the debt already incurred will quickly (3-5 years) gobble up most of the federal budget. We're talking tax rates doubling just to try to keep up. That's one of the reasons PMs are a good idea. It's a way to preserve your wealth in a portable fashion.


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## mojo4 (Feb 19, 2012)

The debt as it stands today is unpayable. But we will never run out of money since we can always print more! The checks wil never stop flowing but the buying power those checks create will drop like a stone. Someday we will wake up to 500 dollar gallons of gas and milk and the checks cannot keep up with the inflation.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Sigh.....

I was watching the movie " I.O.U.S.A. " from 2007. 

The nat'l debt was only 7.x trillion back then. It's doubled in 6 years!!!!


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

BillS said:


> I thought total federal government debt and unfunded liabilities were over $200 trillion. Not that it matters that much. The most significant figure in my view is that unfunded liabilities grew by $8.6 trillion over the last two years or by $4.3 trillion a year. The official budget is $3 trillion and tax revenues are $2 trillion. The only way the government can survive is by massive entitlement cuts and they're not going to happen. There will come a time when entitlement payments will just stop.


Yes, I have seen that too, but that is unfunded liabilities over the next 10 years cumulative... So what this guy did, was take the unfunded liabilities into account up to today as debt and each day it will add more to that $88T...

Yep, we are doomed cause no one is saying HOW we can repay the debt we have, no one is INTERESTED in it.


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