# How will people act when TEOTWAWKI?



## TheLazyL

First I’ll define what I mean by TEOTWAWKI. Majority if not all of the world’s power grid is down and will be for years if not for generations. There is no central banking, no credit cards, no phone service, no national distribution of fuel and no world and no national or state rule of law. 

How will people act when TEOTWAWKI? I believe the majority will act no different than they do today. 

Wife is totally responsible for her car (why is another story). She has known for several months that this weekend she will be driving out of State. As I going out the door this morning for work she asked me if any of her car tires look low. She then realizes that if her car does have a low tire, I will not have time to put air in without being late for work. Her solution is she’ll drive to my work, I take time off from work, and use work’s air compressor to resolve any tires that maybe low on air pressure. Why face the unpleasant tasks today if you can get someone else to do it for you tomorrow?

My lunch hour today I drove into town to get a few electrical supplies for a project and for lunch. Drive thru was backed up a dozen cars. Bumper to bumper except for me, I left enough room in front of me that I was able to drive out of line when I realized this was going to take longer then I wanted to wait. Many will be left stranded on the road when they try to leave a population center with their bumper to bumper impatience. 

Leaving the fast food restaurant parking lot a lady cut me off. If it wasn’t for my reflexes and nice nature I could have T-boned her car. She has me blocked so I can’t clear my lane. Cars are backing up behind me out into the intersection. The opposite lane can’t move because the intersection is blocked which means the Lady that cut me off can’t merge. The lady’s thoughtlessness just cost the rest of us to waste our time and if I hadn’t been able (or willing) to stop in time, a lot more of our time AND money.

I then stopped at a convenience store close to work for lunch. Car parked beside me and a overweight 20ish lady jumped out of the passenger seat and walked briskly into the store. A man (husband?) slowly exited from the driver’s side and opened the back door. I thought he was helping their children to exit the car? No. The one he was softly calling sweetie was a dog. The 3 or 4 year old in the rear passenger car seat was ignored and evidently expected to either “stay” or figure out how to get out by himself. When TEOTWAWKI too many “parents” will be more concerned how the current crisis is affecting them and any children will have to fend for themselves. 

Today. Before TEOTWAWKI. Observe your neighbors and co-workers. 

Is your neighbor the type that knowing you and your wife both have the flu, sneak over and mow your lawn for you? Or would the neighbor knowing you and your wife have the flu pounded on your door to tell you the one dandelion in your far yard is responsible for the weeds in the their yard?

It is worth the risk in cutting off that young mother with children just so you can get home for the start of the game? Or would it be better to take the time to wave the mother to go next?

A person who makes hasty or last minute decisions is the one you’d want covering your back during a TEOTWAWKI recon or the one that's calm and has the tendency to plan ahead?


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## BillS

Yes, most people won't be planning ahead to protect themselves but it will be much worse than that.

When EBT cards don't work there will be high levels of violence by black people against white people. 

There will be mass suicides once people realize they're facing starvation. 

Even a small mid-western town will become more dangerous than Detroit. People will kill each other just for the chance that the victim has food in their house.

Grave robbing will be the norm as people trade gold wedding rings for food.

Prostitution will be rampant as people sell themselves for food.

If you're known to be a prepper anybody who knows that will be a potential danger to you. Friends, relatives, and coworkers might decide that you owe them food and shelter. They'll get violent if you don't provide it to them.

Packs of starving dogs will be a danger to people.


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## AmishHeart

Great points, LazyL. I'll be more observant on how people are acting now! I own a preschool, and we have some parents that behave badly now, and when they are in the wrong, never apologize. I would think that behavior would intensify. I deal with some single moms on welfare..they assume they should not pay for anything, and most of the kids lunches that they bring are high priced gas station convenience food fare. So I imagine some of them might be waiting for the govt to save them, and don't know how to cook, either. We even have a family in our local "group" that when asked to bring something to our meetings always forgets, or has some excuse. I don't expect to count on them when things are bad, because I can't count on them when things are good. Some people I know are living in an alternate reality right now, so I don't know what they'll do. Their lives revolve around social media, tv, constant use of their smart phone, how they look and what Hollywood is doing. If that all disappears suddenly, will people like that just stand around? I'm not sure. If that is someone's whole life, then what happens?


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## weedygarden

TheLazyL said:


> First I'll define what I mean by TEOTWAWKI. Majority if not all of the world's power grid is down and will be for years if not for generations. There is no central banking, no credit cards, no phone service, no national distribution of fuel and no world and no national or state rule of law.
> 
> How will people act when TEOTWAWKI? I believe the majority will act no different than they do today.
> 
> Wife is totally responsible for her car (why is another story). She has known for several months that this weekend she will be driving out of State. As I going out the door this morning for work she asked me if any of her car tires look low. She then realizes that if her car does have a low tire, I will not have time to put air in without being late for work. Her solution is she'll drive to my work, I take time off from work, and use work's air compressor to resolve any tires that maybe low on air pressure. Why face the unpleasant tasks today if you can get someone else to do it for you tomorrow?
> 
> My lunch hour today I drove into town to get a few electrical supplies for a project and for lunch. Drive thru was backed up a dozen cars. Bumper to bumper except for me, I left enough room in front of me that I was able to drive out of line when I realized this was going to take longer then I wanted to wait. Many will be left stranded on the road when they try to leave a population center with their bumper to bumper impatience.
> 
> Leaving the fast food restaurant parking lot a lady cut me off. If it wasn't for my reflexes and nice nature I could have T-boned her car. She has me blocked so I can't clear my lane. Cars are backing up behind me out into the intersection. The opposite lane can't move because the intersection is blocked which means the Lady that cut me off can't merge. The lady's thoughtlessness just cost the rest of us to waste our time and if I hadn't been able (or willing) to stop in time, a lot more of our time AND money.
> 
> I then stopped at a convenience store close to work for lunch. Car parked beside me and a overweight 20ish lady jumped out of the passenger seat and walked briskly into the store. A man (husband?) slowly exited from the driver's side and opened the back door. I thought he was helping their children to exit the car? No. The one he was softly calling sweetie was a dog. The 3 or 4 year old in the rear passenger car seat was ignored and evidently expected to either "stay" or figure out how to get out by himself. When TEOTWAWKI too many "parents" will be more concerned how the current crisis is affecting them and any children will have to fend for themselves.
> 
> Today. Before TEOTWAWKI. Observe your neighbors and co-workers.
> 
> Is your neighbor the type that knowing you and your wife both have the flu, sneak over and mow your lawn for you? Or would the neighbor knowing you and your wife have the flu pounded on your door to tell you the one dandelion in your far yard is responsible for the weeds in the their yard?
> 
> It is worth the risk in cutting off that young mother with children just so you can get home for the start of the game? Or would it be better to take the time to wave the mother to go next?
> 
> A person who makes hasty or last minute decisions is the one you'd want covering your back during a TEOTWAWKI recon or the one that's calm and has the tendency to plan ahead?


You have described many kinds of situations that I deal with daily. Just driving alone can drive up anyone's blood pressure. I literally could go on and on about bad driving and people who act like they are the center of the universe.

I make it a goal that wherever I go, that I get people to smile. That means I let people go in front of me, especially if it does not affect anyone behind me. I speak to the clerks in a friendly manner, greet them, call them by name if I can see their name tag, or in some instances, I have had some of the same people waiting on me for years. I ask them how they are, thank them and wish them a good day. I speak to almost everyone I meet when I am walking. It costs me nothing and gives me a reason to smile. We do not know whether someone is dying, had someone close to them die recently, have been diagnosed with a terminal illness, or whatever.

I am not a Pollyanna. I was raised by grouchy grandparents, so I have to work at it some days.

I have also never been a princess. If I have a flat tire, I change it. I have no expectation that I have to wait for a man to do that for me. I took a 1 hour auto maintenance class in college, and have changed my oil and done tune ups many times. My daughter is very independent as a result of being raised by a mom who is.


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## tmttactical

This is a touchy issue for me and the WW. She is a warm caring person with regard to people and I have very little faith in the over all goodness of most people. 

In a complete breakdown in law and government, I firmly believe 90% will die off in the first month, starvation, dehydration, chronic medical issues, mental trauma, violent encounters (instigator or victim) and last but not least simple accidents. The last 10% will either fight it out and / or band together to survive and rebuild. 

98% of my family will be in the first group. Only my oldest son and his wife and children may survive. I am not sure my WW will survive due to being too trusting and her medical conditions. My medical condition will probable improve as the sweet temptation foods will not be available. Our other children will not survive due to lack of planning and the inability to protect themselves, they will fall prey to anybody wanting their possible supplies. 

My main concern is just how long before this type of event happens. I am sure it is going to happen, just not sure how long we have to prepare. In five to six years it would take an armed military force to root out my son and his family, out of their home. If this type of event happens much sooner, then it will become a coin toss. Keeping my fingers crossed and continuing to plan and prepare.


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## Tirediron

Long term grid down will really mess most people up, most won't be able to have a conversation because the things they talk about, pro sports- celebrity crap- etc , will be gone. how will they cook? can they cook? where does food come from? A lot will just sit and shiver. I don't really see the "golden hoard" happening. there will be raiders and attempted raiders. mostly just stupid sheeple bleating, bleating bleating.


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## Meerkat

tmttactical said:


> This is a touchy issue for me and the WW. She is a warm caring person with regard to people and I have very little faith in the over all goodness of most people.
> 
> In a complete breakdown in law and government, I firmly believe 90% will die off in the first month, starvation, dehydration, chronic medical issues, mental trauma, violent encounters (instigator or victim) and last but not least simple accidents. The last 10% will either fight it out and / or band together to survive and rebuild.
> 
> 98% of my family will be in the first group. Only my oldest son and his wife and children may survive. I am not sure my WW will survive due to being too trusting and her medical conditions. My medical condition will probable improve as the sweet temptation foods will not be available. Our other children will not survive due to lack of planning and the inability to protect themselves, they will fall prey to anybody wanting their possible supplies.
> 
> My main concern is just how long before this type of event happens. I am sure it is going to happen, just not sure how long we have to prepare. In five to six years it would take an armed military force to root out my son and his family, out of their home. If this type of event happens much sooner, then it will become a coin toss. Keeping my fingers crossed and continuing to plan and prepare.





Tirediron said:


> Long term grid down will really mess most people up, most won't be able to have a conversation because the things they talk about, pro sports- celebrity crap- etc , will be gone. how will they cook? can they cook? where does food come from? A lot will just sit and shiver. I don't really see the "golden hoard" happening. there will be raiders and attempted raiders. mostly just stupid sheeple bleating, bleating bleating.


 I know the feeling. Good points yall.


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## Meerkat

weedygarden said:


> You have described many kinds of situations that I deal with daily. Just driving alone can drive up anyone's blood pressure. I literally could go on and on about bad driving and people who act like they are the center of the universe.
> 
> I make it a goal that wherever I go, that I get people to smile. That means I let people go in front of me, especially if it does not affect anyone behind me. I speak to the clerks in a friendly manner, greet them, call them by name if I can see their name tag, or in some instances, I have had some of the same people waiting on me for years. I ask them how they are, thank them and wish them a good day. I speak to almost everyone I meet when I am walking. It costs me nothing and gives me a reason to smile. We do not know whether someone is dying, had someone close to them die recently, have been diagnosed with a terminal illness, or whatever.
> 
> I am not a Pollyanna. I was raised by grouchy grandparents, so I have to work at it some days.
> 
> I have also never been a princess. If I have a flat tire, I change it. I have no expectation that I have to wait for a man to do that for me. I took a 1 hour auto maintenance class in college, and have changed my oil and done tune ups many times. My daughter is very independent as a result of being raised by a mom who is.


 I think that is a great way to be. Its those of us who have had some bad times that are the strongest in bad times. I'm tired,haha. :wave:


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## Resto

They will Eat Each Other, just like they do now.


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## hashbrown

I really think a biggest part of the population will just lay around until its too late waiting on the "government" to save them, by the time they get desperate and nasty it will be to late for them.


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## phideaux

I don't believe most of them will survive..

*How would they ask for help ???*









Jim


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## Tweto

Where we live, most of what mentioned in the OP is not a problem.

There just isn't the population here to cause most of these problems. We don't have traffic jambs or for that matter much traffic. We never go to fast food outlets and if we did it wouldn't be at lunch time. We just eat breakfast at a truck stop and their were only 4 tables out of 30 tables with people their and this is Saturday.

There's no mass transit or for that matter anywhere there our people walking around on smart phones.

We had no Halloween kids come around on the 31st or have we ever.

If TEOTWAWKI happens, I'm not sure we would know it except for the power being out.


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## fteter

People will do...or at least attempt to do...whatever they believe is necessary to maximize the odds for the survival and security of themselves and their loved ones. IMHO, the real purpose of emergency preparedness is threefold: 1) To improve the odds of survival for me and my loved ones; 2) To improve those odds without undertaking bad acts; 3) To help others around me to prepare in the same manner. 

Some people will be adequately prepared. For the most part, I suspect the "good actors" will be in this group. Some people will not be adequately prepared. And this is where the "bad guys" will come from. Regardless of how people may act and think before a TEOTWAWKI scenario ensues, people will do anything...and I mean anything...when they or their loved ones get to a high level of need.

Great question. What I'm trying to say in response is that it's gonna be bad. But we can mitigate the bad by preparing ourselves and helping others around us do the same.


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## tsrwivey

Tirediron said:


> I don't really see the "golden hoard" happening. there will be raiders and attempted raiders. mostly just stupid sheeple bleating, bleating bleating.


I tend to agree. I think most will sit around waiting for the lights to come back on until they don't have enough water to make it out to the country. Honestly, how many are physically fit enough to walk even 20 miles?


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## tikiman

This is a question I think most of us have pondered and none of us like the answers. All one has to do is look at the daily news to get a glimpse of how it will start. Many will just wait. Most will be elderly and others who need help with there day to day stuff. Others will wait till help comes. Mobs will happen quickly. They happen now for stupid stuff. Can you imagine if they think the government or some one in the niegborhood isn't helping them! Aid workers will take it hard. Helping at first untill they leave for their own family's and supplies dwindle, that and the raids etc. as time stretches , you'll see the raider gangs and " help" groups including military gone bad, working the areas. Big city areas will be sectioned into safe zones and non safe areas. 

Big part is the longer it proceeds I thing most left will ban together good and bad and start carving out small almost village type areas. Communal gardens and animals. Small shops will spring up, mostly trade, but will help the group or family. Traveling trade group caravans will be needed to bring things to the area that others have and you might need. We're talking years here so that's not good. 

While we won't be tossed back to caveman days, it's going to feudal Europe say 1500's for a bit. Third world countries will probably recover quick than the big boys.


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## AmmoSgt

tmttactical said:


> This is a touchy issue for me and the WW. She is a warm caring person with regard to people and I have very little faith in the over all goodness of most people.
> 
> In a complete breakdown in law and government, I firmly believe 90% will die off in the first month, starvation, dehydration, chronic medical issues, mental trauma, violent encounters (instigator or victim) and last but not least simple accidents. The last 10% will either fight it out and / or band together to survive and rebuild.
> 
> 98% of my family will be in the first group. Only my oldest son and his wife and children may survive. I am not sure my WW will survive due to being too trusting and her medical conditions. My medical condition will probable improve as the sweet temptation foods will not be available. Our other children will not survive due to lack of planning and the inability to protect themselves, they will fall prey to anybody wanting their possible supplies.
> 
> My main concern is just how long before this type of event happens. I am sure it is going to happen, just not sure how long we have to prepare. In five to six years it would take an armed military force to root out my son and his family, out of their home. If this type of event happens much sooner, then it will become a coin toss. Keeping my fingers crossed and continuing to plan and prepare.


The problem is none of that 90% die off in a month has ever happened .. the closest you can get to that is some of the first colonies in the new world and with very small groups of people Even the Black Death that killed of over a third of the Population of Europe took over three years .. The siege of Leningrad yeah they lost a lot of folks .. but like a quarter of the population and they held out for 28 months and a few days with basically the entire firepower of the Nazi Army Group North trying to kill them https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad#Cannibalism . Yes 6 Million Jews and others, Gypsy's, GLBT, intellectuals, communists, died in the holocaust, but across all the groups and over the many years , not 90% and not in a month with really mean and evil people trying really hard... In all of history including the waves of disease from first contact in the New World which took a couple generations.. no such death toll has occurred regardless of the disaster or travail .. tops 10% maybe 15% a year some ancient records are kind of vague .. we know 10 or 15% over a year will bring down entire empires certainly kingdoms and restructure whole societies ( Great book of the restructuring of English society from the plagues https://www.amazon.com/Sarum-Novel-England-Edward-Rutherfurd/dp/0449000729 )

But like it or not at least 90% of all the saints and sinners around you are still going to be around you next year.

people are smart, even the stupid ones, they organize and figure things out pretty fast .. they may be living in mud huts and eating weeds and livestock that died of thirst of starvation and boiling down squirrel bones for half teaspoon of marrow, maybe even cannibalism.

Folks are going to figure out pretty fast that trying to use force and crime to steal supplies sucks as a survival strategy. Cooperation and trading is much less risky and leaves many more loved ones to hug.

One of the more surprising things in the given scenario is that folks who rely on preps are going to be way too late for any of the good looting and regardless of how much you stack and prep.. if you can't live off the land or grow food you will starve to death last congrats ..

Folks, food grows on trees ... survival... so easy, even a caveman can do it.

As much as folks fret over food in a shtf situation many people will out of custom only eat one part of a plant or just the meat from an animal and throw away what used to be called "sweetbreads" aka organs. Some plants only have one edible part but most have more than one. and food exists where people look but don't see .. my neighborhood has a lot of Redbuds mostly for landscaping and decoration and It is one of the biggest bean plants in the US .. Some folks like Ox tail soup but throw away the bone from the bone in roast .. The amount of fat folks throw away .. fat has twice the calories of meat Fat is most of the flavor of meat fat is oil lamps and soap and rendered a replacement for butter. A diet deficient in fat can even cause a horrible disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein_poisoning folks usually get it in a survival situation from eating game during late winter early spring when animals have very low body fat from getting thru the winter .. turns out the traditional hunting seasons are usually set to those periods when fat content is the highest Just like spring tonics .. anybody ever try some of those spring tonics you find in herb books .. taste terrible and don't do much.. that is directly caused by the availability of watermelon at Christmas time and apples on Valentines day.. do a winter on squash and lean boiled meat and then do a spring tonic .. WOW talk about a rush..

Folks are going to live in surprising numbers and use food in whole new ways and use whole new foods .. for every 3 deer you kill you get enough acorns and weeds to feed one person for a year that the dead deer didn't eat first.


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## terri9630

Your assuming people can hunt and identify wild foods and what to do with them if they found them. How many would die from water born pathogens because they don't know how or don't have what they need to treat water. People in "times gone by" were closer to the land and had knowledge people today don't have and aren't interested in learning.


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## AmmoSgt

I used to think that.. until April 2011 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Super_Outbreak The whole area got hit pretty hard.. I got lucky.. only had some minor damage , but power was out for a while again, I got lucky, just 5 days.. some place over a week someplace didn't have any electrical outlets left much less a wall to mount them on.

The people were great.. Groceries stores said bring your grills and a bowl and a spoon .. we have tons of meat that needs grilling and ice cream that needs eating before it all defrosts huge parking lot parties Mobs of church groups and high school and college sports teams prowling the city looking for people to help places to clean up. Businesses in town with not power said come to work anyway we have work for you.. mostly putting roofs on homes .. everybody just knew to treat light controlled intersections as 4 way stops . Radio stations on generator power had a plan.. one did just lost and found people another did which pharmacy was open one did which gas station had gas and working pumps (the rotating generator plan again) .. I split my generators between 5 houses and kept the freezes cold in rotation .. half the town went to open carry and we had one single reported case of looting/ theft of a gas station none in the residential areas Local company that made satellite communication gear and mounted on HUMVEE's gave the city everything they had on hand and all emergency services were in full contact with the rest of the world on day one

The heavy equipment rental outfits went to free rental honor system and folks brought stuff back immediately when they finished because they knew folks were waiting Neighborhoods mounted armed neighborhood watches and pooled cars and gas to get folks to where they need to be get supplies all across several counties ...

Pick a disaster the flooding a couple years ago in NC .. neighbors helped neighbors churches have portable kitchens that rolled to the worst places people went out of their way to rescue pets and livestock one radio station did nothing but requests for help and volunteer team rolled on them in minutes Call in and 30 minutes later 40 people were on your doorstep all the doctors and nurses in town from private practice set up aid stations out of their cars or set up tents or those little blue sideless flea market things I am on solar had a cord out to the front yard for folks to charge cell phones as needed.

Nothing special here .. read the news at the next disaster flooding fire Gatlinburg California doesn't matter folks helping neighbors volunteers by the 100's donations of food and water by the semi tractor Food Trucks to the rescue ...

Been there done that got the t-shirt and been so proud of my town, my state I cry every time I think about it .. it was freaking beautiful!

Church services on time on schedule even if all they had was a concrete slab where a building once stood.. and yes we have many funerals too..

Somebody started a facebook page that just did folks who found family papers or picture some found over 25 miles away from where they started the returned literally millions of documents and pictures to folks who lost everything else.

That is what I experienced when the lights went out, when the just in time delivery system broke down when government and the police were knocked down and lost power and buildings and patrol cars and ambulances folks who lost their own homes firefighter off rescuing strangers while strangers rescued the firefighters families.
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2011/05/hundreds_of_volunteers_work_on.html
http://www.missionhuntsville.org/updates/recovery.htm
http://alabamadisasterrelief.blogspot.com/ https://w4hmc.wordpress.com/2011/05/18/alabama-tornado-outbreak/
http://www.groundcontrol.com/Satellite_VSAT_Equipment/Quantum_Newsletter_SpecialEdition_May2011.pdf
https://www.nab.org/xert/2011Emails/PublicService/juneNewsletter.html

I came by my warped view of people honestly ...


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## tsrwivey

AmmoSgt said:


> That is what I experienced when the lights went out, when the just in time delivery system broke down when government and the police were knocked down and lost power and buildings and patrol cars and ambulances folks who lost their own homes firefighter off rescuing strangers while strangers rescued the firefighters families.


That's a completely different scenario than a true TEOtWAWKI. In a local disaster, people know help is coming & order will be restored soon. They know they'll be held accountable for their actions. They know their needs & the needs of their children will be met. People know what caused the disaster & can predict what will happen next. In all likelihood people will come together at first in a TEOTWAWKI as well. When they figure out help isn't coming, that necessities are becoming scarce, that there is no law enforcement or anyone in control, that they may have to watch helplessly as their children slowly die from starvation or illness, then people change. Not everyone, but enough.


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## AmmoSgt

just one tip for shtf .. make sure you got heavy boots, good gloves, and a hard hat.. because when real trouble happens you WILL remember who you are and where you come from and you WILL gear up and help . you won't be able to stop yourself.


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## AmmoSgt

tsrwivey said:


> That's a completely different scenario than a true TEOtWAWKI. In a local disaster, people know help is coming & order will be restored soon. They know they'll be held accountable for their actions. They know their needs & the needs of their children will be met. People know what caused the disaster & can predict what will happen next. In all likelihood people will come together at first in a TEOTWAWKI as well. When they figure out help isn't coming, that necessities are becoming scarce, that there is no law enforcement or anyone in control, that they may have to watch helplessly as their children slowly die from starvation or illness, then people change. Not everyone, but enough.


Don't fool yourself come shtf .. I don't care what it is .. you don't know help is coming, and you don't know when or if ..and by the third day your faith will be tested ... and you will not be hard enough or selfish enough NOT to care and to help... Geeze I know a bunch of preppers here locally with hard plans to bunker down bug in load the guns and guard the cheese ,,, LOL guess who is first in line holding a chain saw or getting the boat ready to help evacuate flooded out folks or calling in an saying they can take 6 cows in their back yard and put up one family of four and checking on the neighbors .. especially the old folks

Gawd get real

A True SHTF .. you got any idea how long it takes to actually figure out how big a disaster is .. how long it might last .. A TRUE SHTF is only called a TRUE SHTF about 6 months after it is over... at some point you will realize that it might just end sooner or later and you got to live with all those people.


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## AmmoSgt

one of the questions I occasionally ask the very prepared that have some really cool bug out locations and everything.. is when it looks like SHTF is happening how you gonna know if it is any better two hours away at your bug out location? or if you can even get there?

One of the very things that make SHTF a SHTF and not a cheesy swap meet is everything you don't know about what is happening where you are and any place else and when it will stop or if it will get worse first.

that and how are you going to get clothes that fit after 6 months of survival rations and hard work? got any bolts of cloth and a sewing machine? Clothes wear out fast in a disaster .


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## terri9630

AmmoSgt said:


> one of the questions I occasionally ask the very prepared that have some really cool bug out locations and everything.. is when it looks like SHTF is happening how you gonna know if it is any better two hours away at your bug out location? or if you can even get there?
> 
> One of the very things that make SHTF a SHTF and not a cheesy swap meet is everything you don't know about what is happening where you are and any place else and when it will stop or if it will get worse first.
> 
> that and how are you going to get clothes that fit after 6 months of survival rations and hard work? got any bolts of cloth and a sewing machine? Clothes wear out fast in a disaster .


How do you know if it's any better? Information, situational awareness. Keep up with what's going on. A radio is a useful tool. Anything that affects the town we are near is cause to stay home or leave. I've seen this town during bad weather when the highways are shut down for multiple days. Fights over bottled water and plumbing parts that put people in the hospital. There are neighborhoods that pull together but it is very clannish here. If your not part of their family or friends before a problem arrives, you won't be during.

If we can get there? Depends on the situation and how determined we are. 250 miles on foot or horse back would suck but doable if we take the mountain route. Definitely won't be a 4 hour trip...

As far as clothes, no need to come up with new ones after only 6 months. A belt can have more holes added and a rope can be used as a belt. We raise all but our junk food so if we need to we can use the tanned hides to make more clothes. They won't be pretty or tailored but we won't be stark naked.


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## AmmoSgt

terri9630 said:


> How do you know if it's any better? Information, situational awareness. Keep up with what's going on. A radio is a useful tool. Anything that affects the town we are near is cause to stay home or leave. I've seen this town during bad weather when the highways are shut down for multiple days. Fights over bottled water and plumbing parts that put people in the hospital. There are neighborhoods that pull together but it is very clannish here. If your not part of their family or friends before a problem arrives, you won't be during.
> 
> If we can get there? Depends on the situation and how determined we are. 250 miles on foot or horse back would suck but doable if we take the mountain route. Definitely won't be a 4 hour trip...
> 
> As far as clothes, no need to come up with new ones after only 6 months. A belt can have more holes added and a rope can be used as a belt. We raise all but our junk food so if we need to we can use the tanned hides to make more clothes. They won't be pretty or tailored but we won't be stark naked.


http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/6856-Stats-for-average-daily-mileage say 20 days on foot , could you even get out off town of foot or horseback with that kind of wealth? and with than much supply the horses would have to pack so it would be on foot .. that's a lot of supplies to carry pack horses might actually slow you down grazing and all https://www.amazon.com/Unsung-Hero-Horse-Civil-War/dp/B00ESJ6H56 excellent video on moving distance with horses .. no offense intended if you have horses you probably know horses but this is horses under shtf conditions and in some detail free with prime a bit pricy without read the reviews this guy knows his stuff

How do you figure on radio for the info? have you considered installing one of those Cell phone connected security camera systems assuming the cell tower are working?.. how would your definition of SHTF not affect your BOL given the each man for himself/ family approach because it is so widespread and unpredictable

you got two possible scenarios one somebody else gets there first and claims it or you end up having to claim someplace that isn't yours .. I know an awful lot of people who plan on bugging out and have no place to go but they got weapons. and plan on finding someplace, preferably prestocked

Not trying to hassle you .. just trying to figure out if there is a communication plan or an assumption that there will be, despite local radio being somewhat preoccupied with local events, assuming radio at all.

Planning on passing thru any towns? they may become "toll roads" created by the locals .. ever considered maybe a hand held night vision device maybe an electric ear to get around "obstacles" in the dark?





 http://www.scienceprog.com/long-range-directional-microphones-myth-and-reality/

You can buy them ,, but better if you do you do some homework first

I find moving at night with a little assistance, pocket night vision, small electric ear a lot easier and a lot less surprising. YMMV I would imagine if you were moving at night with possibly noisy horses or kids you would prefer to avoid close in approaches ..


----------



## terri9630

It definitely depends on the situation. An economic collapse will take time for people to realize what is happening then time for them to see that the gov isn't going to save them. We would be able to go through the one small city/large town that may be a problem. If it was something that caused that city to riot, we'd have to go around most likely on horse back as we haven't found any other way to get to the other side that didn't involve other towns.

In 2 years it won't matter much because we will be living on our other place. We already have everything we need at our other place. No need to carry massive amounts of supplies. My brother lives on adjoining property and runs some cows on our land so the place is watched. He is just as prepared as we are. We go up every other weekend in the winter and spend much of the summer up there getting the buildings ready for when we retire. The garden did well this year. Goat pens are done. We just have to build the barn and finish the reno on the house and build the root cellar. It's livable as is but it's not as we want it.

We don't live in town so getting out isn't a problem. There are no towns we have to go through if off road. Most of what we have to pass through is state land with few fences. Water will only be a problem for the first 40 miles if we start out on foot. 

We have walkie talkies to listen on, hand cranked radios to listen to if broadcasting. Not perfect but it will provide local info as we pass by/get near. There are no cities near our other place and once we are past the city north of us there are only 4 small towns to avoid which is easy to do going cross country. Which we have done while hunting on different occasions. 

Being mostly desert will work to our advantage. People will need water. I think the lakes will be the first stop for many and there will be lots of problems. Then people will head north or east. There is very little surface water in NM.


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## AmmoSgt

well that sounds down right workable .. okay good on you especially the getting out of dodge in two years anyway part the family having eyes on part 

Now about those clothes


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## terri9630

AmmoSgt said:


> well that sounds down right workable .. okay good on you especially the getting out of dodge in two years anyway part the family having eyes on part
> 
> Now about those clothes


Clothes?? Who needs em. Pretty sure I've already said this but clothes aren't a problem. We have plenty and before those wear out we will have lots of hides tanned. Kind of a side benefit of being a carnivore.


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## tsrwivey

AmmoSgt said:


> Don't fool yourself come shtf .. I don't care what it is .. you don't know help is coming, and you don't know when or if ..and by the third day your faith will be tested ... and you will not be hard enough or selfish enough NOT to care and to help... Geeze I know a bunch of preppers here locally with hard plans to bunker down bug in load the guns and guard the cheese ,,, LOL guess who is first in line holding a chain saw or getting the boat ready to help evacuate flooded out folks or calling in an saying they can take 6 cows in their back yard and put up one family of four and checking on the neighbors .. especially the old folks
> 
> Gawd get real


I'm not sure what you got your panties in wad over but apparently it interfered with your reading comprehension. In a local event, like a hurricane or tornado, the victims don't know help is coming? They think it's a global tornado?! Tornadoes are not TEOTWAWKI, they're SHTF.

I said nothing about being "hard" or "selfish". I'm not surprised a bit by preppers helping in a disaster. Having your family's needs met during a disaster so you have the ability to focus on helping others is an awesome perk of prepping.

I live in east Texas, I'm no stranger to tornadoes & hurricanes, the situations they cause & how people behave during those events. I'm glad you helped out once.


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## AmmoSgt

tsrwivey said:


> I'm not sure what you got your panties in wad over but apparently it interfered with your reading comprehension. In a local event, like a hurricane or tornado, the victims don't know help is coming? They think it's a global tornado?! Tornadoes are not TEOTWAWKI, they're SHTF.
> 
> I said nothing about being "hard" or "selfish". I'm not surprised a bit by preppers helping in a disaster. Having your family's needs met during a disaster so you have the ability to focus on helping others is an awesome perk of prepping.
> 
> I live in east Texas, I'm no stranger to tornadoes & hurricanes, the situations they cause & how people behave during those events. I'm glad you helped out once.


 probably help out hundred more times before TEOTWAWKI between the two of us and a few more on the forum

For me TEOTWAWKi is a theoretical thing like the zombie apocalypse as the bar of preparedness I am trying to reach. I'm pretty community minded oriented and I don't think my panties are in a wad .. if they were, I'm not so inhibited that I wouldn't adjust them in public. If they were it would just be the prevalence of the I/ my family can make it on my/our own mindset

humans need a social environment shared travail makes for better times in the worst of times .. keep you sane and human how many sea stories and cowboy stories are about the virtues of a good cook and some singing around the campfire/ dinner table.. read some of the lone abandoned Robison Caruso type stories and the near madness that can happen Plenty of real stories as well as fictional. loneliness can be a shtf hell all it's own, even with adequate supplies.

Survival isn't all about cans of cheese ( that reminds me of Ol' Benn Gunn) there are human factors that seldom get discussed .. Maybe it's my Military background and knowing what it is like to have people you can trust with your life, and something bigger out there on your side.

Don't worry about it to each his or her own I guess.


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## TheLazyL

AmmoSgt said:


> one of the questions I occasionally ask the very prepared that have some really cool bug out locations and everything.. is when it looks like SHTF is happening how you gonna know if it is any better two hours away at your bug out location? or if you can even get there?
> 
> One of the very things that make SHTF a SHTF a....


You're changing the original terms of the OP.



> First I'll define what I mean by TEOTWAWKI. Majority if not all of the world's power grid is down and will be for years if not for generations. There is no central banking, no credit cards, no phone service, no national distribution of fuel and no world and no national or state rule of law.


----------



## AmmoSgt

TheLazyL said:


> You're changing the original terms of the OP.


Yeah.. sorry... I just don't think in those terms except in the totally hypothetical.. mainly because of the "How would you know" factor ..I would deal with what was before me. if the whole world up and shut down.. you would never get the news by definition .. it might start to become apparent after a while to some degree but why help didn't come or supplies did not show up by the OP's basic definition would not be on the nonexistent news.

My assertion that you don't know when or if help was coming applies what news or broadcast speculation would be local assuming you even had local which is not a guarantee. the whole omniscience fantasy is just that fantasy. You can either work with what you know or hold back and try and conserve based on your fears and all the unknowns, and the longer you don't know, if you focus on that the more paralyzed by fear you will be. ... I'm just not wired that way.. I have a mission, a purpose, stop as much suffering as I can with what resources I have, and I have priorities I do better if those around me do better don't have to save the world my span is neighborhood out to maybe a secondary status of the immediate local community... it's a matter of resources, and the most important resource is always going to be people .. it isn't going to be about how much food you have stacked ... if you got enough people you can run trap lines you cn wildcraft food from field and forest .. down here with all the soy and cotton fields which aren't going to be mine to harvest the most common weed is pig weed aka amaranth about a pound of seed per plant farmers hate it but it's green when young and like a pound of a great substitute for wheat per plant. plus all the other stuff we got deer and some feral pig.. just a little too north to be living in the middle of all the free pork you can eat. I have stacked stuff like anybody else , but that is by no means the extent of my resources I got farm and field and forest all around waters not a problem shelter depends o what is left standing or can be repaired .

so yeah, not trying to worm my way out of straying from the given scenario mea culpa .. but I just don't see how folks figure they are going to know what happened, or why, if everything just stops , especially if there is no local damage to explain it .

there is going to be a problem sorting out fact from fantasy and fights over what news and rumor and speculation and fears, and fights over which explanation folks want to respond to. you can forestall a lot of that be keeping the focus on local problems that are undeniably real and immediate.


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## Meerkat

terri9630 said:


> It definitely depends on the situation. An economic collapse will take time for people to realize what is happening then time for them to see that the gov isn't going to save them. We would be able to go through the one small city/large town that may be a problem. If it was something that caused that city to riot, we'd have to go around most likely on horse back as we haven't found any other way to get to the other side that didn't involve other towns.
> 
> In 2 years it won't matter much because we will be living on our other place. We already have everything we need at our other place. No need to carry massive amounts of supplies. My brother lives on adjoining property and runs some cows on our land so the place is watched. He is just as prepared as we are. We go up every other weekend in the winter and spend much of the summer up there getting the buildings ready for when we retire. The garden did well this year. Goat pens are done. We just have to build the barn and finish the reno on the house and build the root cellar. It's livable as is but it's not as we want it.
> 
> We don't live in town so getting out isn't a problem. There are no towns we have to go through if off road. Most of what we have to pass through is state land with few fences. Water will only be a problem for the first 40 miles if we start out on foot.
> 
> We have walkie talkies to listen on, hand cranked radios to listen to if broadcasting. Not perfect but it will provide local info as we pass by/get near. There are no cities near our other place and once we are past the city north of us there are only 4 small towns to avoid which is easy to do going cross country. Which we have done while hunting on different occasions.
> 
> Being mostly desert will work to our advantage. People will need water. I think the lakes will be the first stop for many and there will be lots of problems. Then people will head north or east. There is very little surface water in NM.


 Never thought about the fact that the desert could be the best place to be long as your familia with it. I can't imagine the zombees bringing enough water to survive that trip of plundering. Great point.


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## Meerkat

AmmoSgt said:


> http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/6856-Stats-for-average-daily-mileage say 20 days on foot , could you even get out off town of foot or horseback with that kind of wealth? and with than much supply the horses would have to pack so it would be on foot .. that's a lot of supplies to carry pack horses might actually slow you down grazing and all https://www.amazon.com/Unsung-Hero-Horse-Civil-War/dp/B00ESJ6H56 excellent video on moving distance with horses .. no offense intended if you have horses you probably know horses but this is horses under shtf conditions and in some detail free with prime a bit pricy without read the reviews this guy knows his stuff
> 
> How do you figure on radio for the info? have you considered installing one of those Cell phone connected security camera systems assuming the cell tower are working?.. how would your definition of SHTF not affect your BOL given the each man for himself/ family approach because it is so widespread and unpredictable
> 
> you got two possible scenarios one somebody else gets there first and claims it or you end up having to claim someplace that isn't yours .. I know an awful lot of people who plan on bugging out and have no place to go but they got weapons. and plan on finding someplace, preferably prestocked
> 
> Not trying to hassle you .. just trying to figure out if there is a communication plan or an assumption that there will be, despite local radio being somewhat preoccupied with local events, assuming radio at all.
> 
> Planning on passing thru any towns? they may become "toll roads" created by the locals .. ever considered maybe a hand held night vision device maybe an electric ear to get around "obstacles" in the dark?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You can buy them ,, but better if you do you do some homework first
> 
> I find moving at night with a little assistance, pocket night vision, small electric ear a lot easier and a lot less surprising. YMMV I would imagine if you were moving at night with possibly noisy horses or kids you would prefer to avoid close in approaches ..


 Like the gadgets. Thanks fro links.


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## AmmoSgt

No no I won't be in the desert

I'll be getin' down on the mountain ..


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## Meerkat

AmmoSgt said:


> No no I won't be in the desert
> 
> I'll be getin' down on the mountain ..


 :cheers: love the songs! " hiding bullets in my ass : :rofl:.

I will have to send these two to my kids and grown grandkids. :wave:

Guitar player is so cute too.

Ammo, this one came off the one you put up, staring our very own Magus in the 23 second part.


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## AmishHeart

That's quite a beard running around in those Union Jacks


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## terri9630

Meerkat said:


> Never thought about the fact that the desert could be the best place to be long as your familia with it. I can't imagine the zombees bringing enough water to survive that trip of plundering. Great point.


The Apache made the desert work for them. Why hunt down game/people when they all had to head for water. Just watch the springs.


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## AmmoSgt

terri9630 said:


> The Apache made the desert work for them. Why hunt down game/people when they all had to head for water. Just watch the springs.


The desert is full of food ... the stuff grows on both bushes and trees ..

http://www.desertharvesters.org/calendar/

http://www.desertharvesters.org/native-plant-food-guides-the-desert-can-feed-you/desert-ironwood/

http://foodiegardener.com/tumbleweed-is-edible-spinach-alternative/

http://www.eattheweeds.com/salsola-kali-noxious-weed-nibble-green-2/

https://www.outsideonline.com/1958806/what-are-some-good-edible-desert-plants

One of my favorite delicacies http://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/deep-fried-tarantula-spider-51184810 I use more butter and doing a bacon wrap is also good I find having butter or bacon is more like for me than a supply of tempura batter

Okay from here on down this will be redundant for experienced hunters a good review though .. for newbies or beginning hunters I highly recommend reading






Snake of course 



 I used to live in the desert and snake as well as jackrabbit was common fair now I live in Alabama so this works for cotton mouth and copperhead

Unless it is absolutely life or death try not to take Rosy Boa's or King snakes taking Rattlesnake serves two purposes a warm happy tummy and more rabbits for us. However in the desert, particularly Rabbits but as a general rule cleaning or dressing any wild game take the precautions we are about to link to. Animals have parasites like ticks and fleas and diseases one of the most fatal and sometimes found in rabbits.. and if you find it in one you have to be suspect of all rabbits in the area is Tularemia http://www.outdoorhub.com/how-to/2013/02/25/rabbit-hunters-take-note-steps-to-avoid-tularemia/ wear gloves don't touch you face with bloody gloves for God's sake do not do the old traditional rite of blooding a hunter or drinking the blood from a kill .

some things to think about .. and this is true of eating any wild animal all game animals can have disease and parasites

https://www.avma.org/public/Health/Pages/Disease-Precautions-for-Hunters.aspx

http://icwdm.org/handbook/damage/wildlifediseases.asp

http://www.cdc.gov/features/huntersbrucellosis/ http://www.fieldandstream.com/articles/health-fitness/2010/10/your-game-meat-safe-eat

Important important important http://www.healthycanadians.gc.ca/e...onseils/cook-temperatures-cuisson-tbl-eng.php

For god's sake and the lives on your loved ones pack a meat thermometer in your BOB everything internal temp above 165 if in doubt or can't find it on a chart going to 180 is even better for safety ( especially for birds) not so much for flavor and texture a MEAT Thermometer is a real good idea this is a survival forum Horrible to die from a steak to the stomach . I carry a little vial of pool shock, this is a dangerous chemical I use a two dram bottle wrapped in foam rubber wrapped in duct tape left open on one end to remove the bottle for use .. just a couple or three granules in a quart to half gallon of water to use as a sterilizing dip to frequently clean your dressing and butchering tools frequently as you dress clean and butcher .

http://www.clemson.edu/extension/hgic/food/food_safety/handling/hgic3516.html if you can't properly safe store the meat discard

Don't bother with chipmunks and desert mice aside from not being worth the effort in some regions they are vectors for Hanta Virus http://www.cdc.gov/hantavirus/ https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/si...antavirus-Prevention-and-Cleanup-Guidance.pdf these rules are also for house mice in affected regions

trapping and snaring is a lousy way to get food.. but folks are going to do it.. most of the reasons trapping and snaring is lousy is because how long a dead animal might be cooling and growing disease organisms in the trap or snare .. if it is for food check often and be prepared to kill humanely if the animal is still alive


----------



## hiwall

If the electric power goes out I fail to see how the bulk of the population will find safe water to drink after the first week. And in the cities how will they handle the non-functional sewer system after a week? 
And even if everybody is friendly and sit around every evening and sing kumbaya they still have to eat. And in the larger cities( or actually any city) that are no longer receiving the steady stream of food delivery trucks every single day food Will run out very very quickly. Once all the pets are eaten and all the pigeons, ducks, geese, and song birds then what will the millions of people in the cities eat? 
With over flowing sewers and some un-buried dead bodies you would certainly think that diseases would start happening. This would lead to more dead bodies and yet more disease. 
And no matter what there will be violence. There is violence every single day now in every city and with no cops and no lights there would certainly be more violence. There is always a portion of every population that longs to break the law but is only held in check by the thought of incarceration. When everyone sees that it is WROL and will stay that way then the shackles will be off.
While I have no doubt that some people will try to protect the weak they obviously won't always succeed. Either way that will lead to more dead bodies.


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## AmmoSgt

hiwall said:


> If the electric power goes out I fail to see how the bulk of the population will find safe water to drink after the first week. And in the cities how will they handle the non-functional sewer system after a week?
> And even if everybody is friendly and sit around every evening and sing kumbaya they still have to eat. And in the larger cities( or actually any city) that are no longer receiving the steady stream of food delivery trucks every single day food Will run out very very quickly. Once all the pets are eaten and all the pigeons, ducks, geese, and song birds then what will the millions of people in the cities eat?
> With over flowing sewers and some un-buried dead bodies you would certainly think that diseases would start happening. This would lead to more dead bodies and yet more disease.
> And no matter what there will be violence. There is violence every single day now in every city and with no cops and no lights there would certainly be more violence. There is always a portion of every population that longs to break the law but is only held in check by the thought of incarceration. When everyone sees that it is WROL and will stay that way then the shackles will be off.
> While I have no doubt that some people will try to protect the weak they obviously won't always succeed. Either way that will lead to more dead bodies.


Hey, you might be right I don't know how it will happen either in some places.. all I am saying, if history is any guide, and as long as the situation is no worse than Andersonville, then odds are 90% give take will still be around in a year or so... just some trivia for planning purposes.

All I am asking here is for examples of where some of these 90% die in the first month or 50% in 6 months or whatever ever happened in History .. I looked , I searched .. some of the early attempts at colonization in the new world .. some small towns around the beginning of agriculture due to warfare Pompeii single point disasters but nation wide city state size and up nope they may even abandon the cities altogether but the majority of the people survive war, plague, civilization collapse , climate change, ice ages , desertification, volcanos , earthquakes, Tsunami's tops out around 10-15 % per year and 15% is rare.

folks Improvise, Adapt, Overcome I don't know how they did it, I'm trying to find out how they did it , maybe what we are doing here is part of it complete changing of religion happened a lot under SHTF during the Black Death all sorts of religious offshoots .. the flagellation and ultra penance cults old gods and temples torn down new ones built could be there is a massive change in morality or a revival . How many minorities have a cultural history of being the scapegoats and everybody trying to wipe them out .. not just the Jews

In some case what and how they grew crops change wheat out potatoes in total rearrangement of social hierarchy went from the sun king concept with the annual killing of the king and installing a new king every year to heredity kingship or vice versa went from priests on top to secular power on top or vice versa or merchants on top.

Don't know what to tell you.. all I am asking when folks come up with their projections is where In history has this happened? .. with all the disasters of all possible kinds that have happen throughout History, how come there is so damn many of us ? Something is going on that heavily slants towards massive survival . If I knew what it was I would bottle it and sell you some.

All I am saying is for planning purposes go with the overwhelming trend. Maybe you will get lucky and everybody but you will die .. that is also the weird part, folks project 90% dead, and yet even with those odds they absolutely sure they will be alive, invariably. I just can't make that math work, at least 9 out of 10 that believe 90% will die, shouldn't by all rights, be that concerned about a years worth of supplies, certainly not for the whole family. but when folks start talking bug out bags how many include the Book of Common Prayer or a minster's manual so they can marry and bury folks https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0...3b-4b45-54f0-a28f-c03c9609c0e7&pf_rd_i=172816

here is a free version that covers most events from birth to death http://www.baylor.edu/content/services/document.php?id=146523

How many folks even know how to tell for sure that somebody is dead.. I mean that is a pretty big mistake if you make it .

Or does none of that actually matter to any prepper? am I late to the game? do we have a thread on that already and I missed it? with all the expected dying, nobody gets buried with a service ? not even 90% of your own family? WTH?


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## hiwall

The scenario the OP laid out has obviously never happened in history. He was asking a question using the parameters that he laid out in the first post.
His scenario may never happen. His scenario likely will never happen. But he requested answers based on his scenario.
With no history to use as a guide for this scenario then we have to just put on our thinking caps. Take a fair sized city of one million people. With no power there will be no clean potable water pumped to those people. Each will need about a gallon of potable water per day. At the beginning there will be stored water of many varieties. Bottled water, canned and bottled drinks or all kinds, water in water heaters, possibly potable water in swimming pools, etc. After a couple days those million people will seek out all those water sources. After a week I would have to assume that those potable water sources will be for the most part all gone. 
What will they do then? Leave? If this event is wide spread (like the OP said) there would be no potable water anywhere by that time. 
We all know for a fact that all sewage in cities has to be pumped away. No power equals no pumping. At first people would use the very precious water to flush toilets. The large sewer pipes would all fill and be clogged. Then start to over flow. It would be stinky and in most cities there just is not really that many bushes that you could go behind to do your business. And how many city people have a shovel to make latrine ditch? Or the wisdom to do so?
Humans are a very violent species. That we can can certainly see from history or just watch the evening news one night to see it. So violence is a given every day now. It would certainly not get better in the OP's scenario. 
Food trucks run deliveries to grocery stores every day. Every day. If they stop just how much food would be left after just one week? A fair amount of food would spoil because of the lack of refrigeration. So that food would be wasted. With no power some food that required cooking would be difficult to say the least for people to cook with no power. Especially in inner city areas. In the suburbs some would maybe have gas BBQ grills or charcoal grills or camping stoves. But just how many would have that stuff and the required fuel?
In just a week food would be a major issue. And stores Would get looted. When the stores were all empty the looters would look elsewhere like in homes. There would be violence.
Yes people would die in the OP's scenario.


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## AmmoSgt

Why do you think such things haven't happened before ? I posted the siege of Leningrad .. totally cut off no food no water no power other than what folks could make a little smuggled in .. and not just in the trucks aren't coming sense .. city of over 3 million siege lasted over two years not just your worst case urban violence 750,000 German troops with tanks artillery and air power lasted over two years lost over 600,000 civilians works out to a 10% loss a year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad

Aleppo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aleppo_(2012–present)

City of 2.5 Million cut off can't get supplies , rather intense urban violence some say urban gangs with poison gas and barrel bombs field artillery and a small air force anti tank missiles and tanks .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aleppo_(2012–present) about a million have left about 31,000 civilians killed by the latest official count been going on for 4 years those that have left went to the worst FEMA camp you can imagine or did the walk and paddle across middle east and Europe sort of an Appalachian trail with land mines and sharks . if you count evacuees, refuges, and dead, it is a 10% scenario.

What are these two examples missing .. the rest the world may be up and running , but for all intents and purposes not only are they cut off but what is getting thru is more often an airstrike than a food convoy.
okay maybe the Aleppo thing isn't totally fair to use as an example. Aleppo is real experienced at sieges, this isn't their first rodeo, the Hittites , Alexander, The Crusades , the Black Death these guys have been training for sieges for over 3000 years. And flush toilets weren't even invented for most of the sieges.

The main point is 3000 years ago Aleppo was a walled city maybe 30,000 key cross road of history and the silk road and it has grown over the years despite famine war plague pestilence drought religious and secular and political wars and occasional urban violence and the urban gang or two to 100 times it's original size.

You have to remember how human got their start. They wanted to live in caves.. Cave Bears https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_bear lived in caves, teeth, claws, big, furry .. us small teeth finger nails small not much fur cave bears extinct we have recipes and live in caves . we organized invented cave bear hunting team had a Super Bowl didn't bring near enough wings or chips or beer so we ate the opposition. We just look pink and tan and dark and small and weak nd not very furry, turns out we are kind of hard to kill.


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## Caribou

Sarge you have a good point. Those communities that pull together, like in a siege, should fare better. 

In Leningrad they had a country behind them at least trying to supply food and ammo. There must have been some success. In a situation where an entire continent was without transportation trying to get food into the cities would be a challenge as would the farming if fuel was unavailable. 

While the Texan cattle, the Idaho potatoes, and the Iowa corn can feed millions those millions are in LA and NYC. While the people with animal production close at hand will get protein and the people in agricultural areas can get chickens, rabbits, and pigs, how do we get food to the cities.

With most peoples money, what little they have, tied up in banks or stocks, how do we pay for food without electricity? The grocery store giving away their meat before it spoils is a great short term answer but that only works for a limited time. To restock they need to make payment. 

I agree that 90% death rate in the first year is high. As fuel stocks diminish farmers will fill silos and then quit planting. If they can fill the silos. Ships will stop without fuel and ways to get the cargo to port. At least we won't have to worry about exporting food.

How will people act? Most of the good people will still be good. The bad people will still be bad. Some will loose it and do bad things.


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## AmmoSgt

Yeah again not clear on the how in particular beef got to market from Texas to Chicago on the hoof coffee and tea pepper two years at sea in sailing ships Wheat on horse drawn river and canal barge ..Rome was supplied with wheat from Egypt. Silk from China was sold in Italy before Marco Polo Ivory from Africa passed thru many hands but it was used in Germany Goods were exchange for good crafts for crafts Flanders wool cloth was world famous in the 12th and 13th centuries a nd wool came in from all over the known world to their looms folks will figure out something they always have. Well, okay, the plague spread on those same trade routes, not all sweetness and light. We got Manhattan because the Dutch had Italian beads. just saying



Caribou said:


> Sarge you have a good point. Those communities that pull together, like in a siege, should fare better.
> 
> In Leningrad they had a country behind them at least trying to supply food and ammo. There must have been some success. In a situation where an entire continent was without transportation trying to get food into the cities would be a challenge as would the farming if fuel was unavailable.
> 
> While the Texan cattle, the Idaho potatoes, and the Iowa corn can feed millions those millions are in LA and NYC. While the people with animal production close at hand will get protein and the people in agricultural areas can get chickens, rabbits, and pigs, how do we get food to the cities.
> 
> With most peoples money, what little they have, tied up in banks or stocks, how do we pay for food without electricity? The grocery store giving away their meat before it spoils is a great short term answer but that only works for a limited time. To restock they need to make payment.
> 
> I agree that 90% death rate in the first year is high. As fuel stocks diminish farmers will fill silos and then quit planting. If they can fill the silos. Ships will stop without fuel and ways to get the cargo to port. At least we won't have to worry about exporting food.
> 
> How will people act? Most of the good people will still be good. The bad people will still be bad. Some will loose it and do bad things.


----------



## tsrwivey

One difference is we no longer have the infrastructure & skills that made that sort of trade possible. We live in a different world now. Our food supply depends on huge machinery to plant, water, & harvest the food. Few know anything about how to raise enough food to feed their own family let alone have enough to ship anywhere. Heck, we garden & have for years but Lord help us if we have to depend on that exclusively. :surrender: 

People are different as well. Back in the day & in other parts of the world, they have always directly provided for their own basic physiological needs & provided their own protection. They understood how nature works & could utilize that knowledge. That's not the case in the US for most. It's a different mindset. 

Few people know anything about using horses as transportation or building wagons out of trees. Heck, we own a construction company & I assure you few even know how to hammer a nail. 

People who can't feed themselves or their families don't devote time, energy, effort, or resources to feeding other people or hauling in spices from the other side of the world. They just don't. 

I live in cattle country, in a TEOTWAWKI we'd be focused on securing & preserving that cattle & other food sources, not risking life & limb to transport that food to the city folks. In a TEOTWAWKI scenario like we are discussing, driving food into the cities won't help those people, it will only postpone the inevitable & those with enough sense to have food to begin with will know that. 

It's really simple, it's all about Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The folks that built the big sailing boats & established trade from afar had their physical needs & their need for safety & security met first & that is key.

Yes, there will be charity, there will be neighbor helping neighbor & communities that form to help each other out. Some of us even prep to be able to do those things, but trekking food into the city? No.


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## Starcreek

AmmoSgt said:


> I used to think that.. until April 2011 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Super_Outbreak


I remember that. We were north of you, in Tennessee, and people came flooding over the state line looking for gasoline and working ATMs.

My husband's cousin was in Shoal Creek Valley. The tornado swept up that valley as a wall-to-wall storm. Cousin's son's house next-door was demolished. Son and his wife were killed, and cousin has been raising their two children since.

A friend who was a street preacher in Louisiana went to Sand Mountain with his family in a bus to help with the rebuild... and never left. His daughter married the boy next door and he is ministering right there, to a congregation of about 20 or so.

That was a tremendous, devastating storm, but the stories you share of neighbor-helping-neighbor are encouraging to hear.


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## AmmoSgt

Like I said up front.. I don't know the how's or even the why's, and it may not be a cattle drive .. But it seems, near as I can find, that it gets done.. It's getting done at Aleppo, folks are leaving it's a people drive going looking for cattle if you will, those folks down there are trying their level best to wipe out each other, other folks are just being Hero's wearing White hard hats .. Folks are self actualizing and going into that particular hell with a microphone and a camera to tell the world the place needs help. I studied Maslow back in the 70's , but as recently as Gatlinburg I see firefighters saving folk's homes while their own home burns down. not sure how to place that on the Hierarchy of needs. In fact Maslow may have been unnecessarily cynical leaving off a spot for self sacrificing. 
Look , I am completely open to cases and cases studies that differ from the ones I present.. I honestly look for worst cases or worserer cases than I present .. My fears tell me all the everybody dead in two months/ 4 months 6 months/ 8 bits/ a dollar folks are probably right Give me a D give me a E give me a A give me another D what does that spell DEAD yeaaaaaAA .. But I can't find the precedents.. If you got something anything outside the exceptions .. small groups usually against nature Jamestown Pompeii and there we are guessing The Dare stones folks may have escaped the pyroclastic flow.. not saying anybody survived , but there seem to be indications .. maybe they are just as speculative and wishful thinking and based on nothing as 90% dead in a month is based on fears and speculation I don't know..
I'm not arguing with you guys about this , I'm totally open to examples of where and when It happened not even asking how or why, just if it did at all. And even If I could find a few more worser than I have found so far.. I still have to accept all the stuff I have found so far, and admit that maybe most folks will survive. Yeah until the modern age and a couple green revolutions and mechanized and the ultra evil of factory farms we have a planet that can carry maybe 2 Billion souls we got 7 and maybe stabilization at around 9 Billion ...

the problem I am having Is this North America and Europe covered in 300 feet of Ice that could be considered a widespread shtf.. but what are folks saying... Hey Look, a land bridge .. wonder where it goes?

i'm not saying I know the future I'm not asking anybody to agree with me , I am allowing for the fact that 90% may be dead in a month and I know the words and ceremony to bury the folks I know with proper ceremony .. I'm just saying everything I can find thru History and even recent events. Rwanda pop 11 million dead 800,000 90%+ of the saints and sinners were around a year later if somewhat displaced . Yugoslavia 23 Million on and off for ten years 140,000 dead 4 million displaced way under 3% and they called it ethnic cleansing and civil war Sarajevo quarter of a million folks under siege for over 3 years Folks were convicted of crimes against humanity / genocide/ ethnic cleansing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo just under 15,000 folks including Military killed There are survivor prepper checklists and tips on how to survive urban shtf http://www.friends-partners.org/bosnia/surintro.html https://www.survivalmonkey.com/threads/sarajevo-survival-guide.19312/

losses about 2% a year from the siege

I'm just saying allow for the possibility folks might survive Is it counterintuitive? Oh hell yeah but I think a fact based history experience grounded approximation of what things will be like a year after shtf starts should at least be considered a possibility for planning purposes even if it is incredibly inconvenient to current plans and preps . Maybe exactly because it doesn't comport with the direction of "preps of conventional wisdom" .

Just saying.. Look I have studted this a lot.. I can keep adding fresh examples every time I post for some time.. all I am asking is for somebody anybody offer up just one example of anything even close to the projected "realistic and reasonable" expected and accepted common wisdom of high high percentages is short short spans of time. Hiroshima about one third the population Nagasaki and a quarter of the population



tsrwivey said:


> One difference is we no longer have the infrastructure & skills that made that sort of trade possible. We live in a different world now. Our food supply depends on huge machinery to plant, water, & harvest the food. Few know anything about how to raise enough food to feed their own family let alone have enough to ship anywhere. Heck, we garden & have for years but Lord help us if we have to depend on that exclusively. :surrender:
> 
> People are different as well. Back in the day & in other parts of the world, they have always directly provided for their own basic physiological needs & provided their own protection. They understood how nature works & could utilize that knowledge. That's not the case in the US for most. It's a different mindset.
> 
> Few people know anything about using horses as transportation or building wagons out of trees. Heck, we own a construction company & I assure you few even know how to hammer a nail.
> 
> People who can't feed themselves or their families don't devote time, energy, effort, or resources to feeding other people or hauling in spices from the other side of the world. They just don't.
> 
> I live in cattle country, in a TEOTWAWKI we'd be focused on securing & preserving that cattle & other food sources, not risking life & limb to transport that food to the city folks. In a TEOTWAWKI scenario like we are discussing, driving food into the cities won't help those people, it will only postpone the inevitable & those with enough sense to have food to begin with will know that.
> 
> It's really simple, it's all about Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The folks that built the big sailing boats & established trade from afar had their physical needs & their need for safety & security met first & that is key.
> 
> Yes, there will be charity, there will be neighbor helping neighbor & communities that form to help each other out. Some of us even prep to be able to do those things, but trekking food into the city? No.


----------



## Caribou

Sarge, you are right. In most cases most people will survive. If we do have a 90% die off it will be over a period of years not weeks. You can survive over a month without food.

There is one thing your examples lack. In the worse case scenario, that I envision, there is no place to go and nobody coming to help. One of your examples is, of 23 million 4 million displaced and 140,000 dead. Four million lived because they could exit the danger zone. You call that <3% loss. Arguably that is closer to 20% loss.


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## AmmoSgt

Caribou said:


> Sarge, you are right. In most cases most people will survive. If we do have a 90% die off it will be over a period of years not weeks. You can survive over a month without food.
> 
> There is one thing your examples lack. In the worse case scenario, that I envision, there is no place to go and nobody coming to help. One of your examples is, of 23 million 4 million displaced and 140,000 dead. Four million lived because they could exit the danger zone. You call that <3% loss. Arguably that is closer to 20% loss.


Good point yeah almost all of this is somewhere else to go or outside help

But what are you going to do , what kind of disaster would hit the USA Europe and China and not blow up the planet .. EMP might get half the US .. there Is an upper limit for man made EMP and the effect of solar max out below what man can do in degree of damage but can cover a larger area

So my guesstimate for USA lower 48 sized calamity that does not involved the total destruction of earth is half the US will be at least partially operational.

However .. did you see the folks leaving Aleppo yesterday on foot .. they weren't going that far and they weren't , heck wouldn't even consider leaving if not for internationally brokered cease fire and safe passage.

So hmm I want to split that 4 million with you oh say 50/50 figuring without the various cease fires and safe passage deals maybe half would have escaped alive but stayed in the region and half of those would head for distant places ..and half would have died in place. If you compare the prices asked by snakeheads and coyotes and the Mediterranean people smugglers they are asking about two years worth of the local average wage almost universally , that is why such a large fraction of refugees are professional educated merchant class especially if they have families .. a lot of the young single men and boys are the risk taker class and try to make it on their own or only pay for the very hard part like crossing oceans.

As a matter of fact it is estimated that between half and three fourths of all the immigrants to colonial America , because of the cost of passage came over as indentured servants https://eh.net/encyclopedia/indentured-servitude-in-the-colonial-u-s/

Gives a whole new, but unfortunately much more accurate understanding of "Bound Away" 




Benjamin Franklin was an Indentured Servant .. not for passage , but as an apprentice .. such deals were made all the time for all sorts of reasons Now immigrants work in sweat shops or as prostitutes to pay back their smugglers or maybe marry their sponsors 

Hey not to start some real big argument or get off into politics but since we are talking immigrants and this Russia tampering with us thing is all in the news .. lets hope they never figure out what offering citizenship or money to all the dreamers and grads and post grads we are trying so hard to throwaway might do to the balance of power if the Russians could recruit them to move to Russia , I'm sure not all would go and I'm sure the Russian would cherry pick but still a ton of talent .. we brain drained them for decades .. lets hope they don't see the opportunity to turn that around and really screw us


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## AmishHeart

Does Russia offer free stuff? The dreamers wouldn't go for it otherwise.


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## AmmoSgt

AmishHeart said:


> Does Russia offer free stuff? The dreamers wouldn't go for it otherwise.


I imagine , for talent they want, it would probably be the whole package citizenship, high status, good, paying job, advanced degrees, nice place to live.

Same kind of stuff we once offered to talent around the world Einstein, Von Braun, Ieoh Ming Pei, Madeleine Albright, Sergey Brin, Igor Sikorsky, Vladimir Zworykin, Voronov brothers ( Warner Brothers )

So that Is physics , rocketry, architecture, diplomacy, Google, helicopters, Television . Movies but that was in the past when we really wanted to be on top win a war or two or three start new industries like Elon Musk

Musk is a self-described American exceptionalist and nationalist, describing himself as "nauseatingly pro-American". According to Musk, the United States is "[inarguably] the greatest country that has ever existed on Earth", describing it as "the greatest force for good of any country that's ever been". Musk believes outright that there "would not be democracy in the world if not for the United States", arguing there were "three separate occasions in the 20th-century where democracy would have fallen with World War I, World War II and the Cold War, if not for the United States".[126]
he was born in South Africa

Anyway and not to get to crazy on this it was just a thought.. we enticed and welcomed all the great talent of the world back in the day.. things change.. I suspect given half an opening, there will be pay back that's all. Of course other countries will pay for it, the reason we got the talent is we used to be rich and wanted them and could out bid the rest the world for the talent.


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## AmishHeart

I thought you were talking about dreamers...illegals coming in or born to illegals getting free University. I don't know about enticement of great minds, I think they just want free stuff, including a University education.

I like Musk. He's a smart cookie.


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## AmmoSgt

AmishHeart said:


> I thought you were talking about dreamers...illegals coming in or born to illegals getting free University. I don't know about enticement of great minds, I think they just want free stuff, including a University education.
> 
> I like Musk. He's a smart cookie.


Dreamers don't get a free education, all they get, is to stay in the country to go to College or join the Military and not be deported.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DREAM_Act

Not only do Dreamers not get a free education, in almost all states they can not get in state tuition rates, they pay nonresident rates, they cannot get a Pell grant or federal aid or federal school loans or food stamps or public assistance.. In some states they can receive private scholarships .

Dreamers have to pass a background check and a health check have no criminal record and they have to stay in school or join the military or lose their exemption. If Dreamers serve Honorably in the Military or Graduate from College they can usually get permanent residency Green Card thereis no path to citizenship. No I wasn't talking about them

I was talking about Doctorial Candidates or Post Doc's in critical fields that we need more people in, maybe in a pinch ( our pinch not theirs ) a Masters Degree.. I wasn't even talking about all Post Grads, Just the ones that would give us an advantage or keep one we already had or hurt us if somebody else got that kind of advantage.

We have shortage and overages on many Post Grad degree Fields. I'm talking about the shortage degree fields only.


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## AmishHeart

I live in New Mexico and there are tons of illegals here on full welfare (food, housing, free childcare); and there are illegals attending UNM and NMSU on pel grants and free of charge, and have EBT and all of that. They are not paying in state tuition because they are not paying anything. 
So I guess my confusion is: what's the difference between a "dreamer" going to college and an illegal going to college? (and which ones would Russia possibly want?) I doubt that they would want the LaRaza college group that likes to protest at the University in Albuquerque. They want New Mexico to be Mexico again.


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## AmmoSgt

AmishHeart said:


> I live in New Mexico and there are tons of illegals here on full welfare (food, housing, free childcare); and there are illegals attending UNM and NMSU on pel grants and free of charge, and have EBT and all of that. They are not paying in state tuition because they are not paying anything.
> So I guess my confusion is: what's the difference between a "dreamer" going to college and an illegal going to college? (and which ones would Russia possibly want?) I doubt that they would want the LaRaza college group that likes to protest at the University in Albuquerque. They want New Mexico to be Mexico again.


 Amish do you have any articles about all these illegals going to school for free or getting benefits? Preferably a local newspaper or maybe a local TV broadcast/ news on the subject.

I'n sorry but that really does sound like one of those fake news propaganda things It's simply you can't legally get any benefits without a social security or tax number and being illegal means you can't get one legally . And if you know of anybody who is illegal and they are getting benefits they may have stolen somebodies ID or bought fake ID.. I get the best response on that by contacting your State's income tax department but technically that is an FBI thing , the ID theft is a federal crime .. but the state tax people are usually quicker , at least here.

Anyway to your question the difference between an illegal and a Dreamer is that Dreamers can legally be in this country due to a wavier, because they were brought in illegally by their parents and really had no choice sometimes didn't even know they were here illegally.


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## hiwall

It took me about 20 seconds to find this article. I would think anyone could fine literally hundreds of articles if they cared to look.

*U. of California rolls out $25M to fund illegal immigrants' education*
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/12/u-california-rolls-out-25m-fund-illegal-immigrants/


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## AmmoSgt

hiwall said:


> It took me about 20 seconds to find this article. I would think anyone could fine literally hundreds of articles if they cared to look.
> 
> *U. of California rolls out $25M to fund illegal immigrants' education*
> http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/12/u-california-rolls-out-25m-fund-illegal-immigrants/


yeah but that isn't the question I asked .. Those are state funds , some states allow that, and there isn't much you can do about private money. It isn't federal funds and it isn't federal tax dollars.. if it isn't your tax dollars.. you don't have much of a beef. That has almost nothing to do with existing executive orders or Dream act .. that's a states rights thing.

Funny thing happened on the way to a subsidized education ..at the end of WW2 a lot of GI's got the GI Bill a free college education including a stipend for living expenses and the Federal government got back $7 in increased income taxes from higher wages for each dollar spent over the life of those GI's. 
http://www.americanradioworks.org/segments/the-history-of-the-gi-bill/ to say nothing of the brain power that fueled the post war economic boom.

there are pro's and con's for similar or slightly similar program now like some Sanders, for example, was pushing for.. not so much the debt forgiveness which would be a boost to the economy , but how much of one for the cost?.. but more a going forward kind of thing, the two years of junior college/ trade training for free as a continuation of the free K-12 thing makes sense as far as a tax base thing, and it makes sense from the stand point of the fact there is so much more folks need to know to be productive now compared to the 1950's.

Not saying it's the case, I haven't seen the numbers , but the odds are good at some level that there is an economic tax profit to be made long run for subsidizing or even giving free education to some folks, even most folks.. Private Colleges don't just give away private scholarships for the fun of it .. Folks tend to give back and give the Colleges endowments when they make it big.. http://www.usnews.com/education/bes...4/10-universities-with-the-biggest-endowments.

personally I'm a Libertarian ( capital L ) I think we ought to do away with Medicare and Social Security and pass a law that the children have to take care of their parents along the lines of the laws we have now that say parents have to take care of their kids. Why should I have to pay taxes to take care of your parents any more than I should have to take care of somebody else's kids .. If parents/ children are unfit or if they won't pay child / parental support I can see state money going to support those kids/ parents only after the parents/ children are incarcerated and suffer total asset forfeiture and a surtax on any future earnings until the tax payers are paid back.. But with education, where there is actually a profit to be made with tax payer money subsidizing future tax payers.. I'm good with that.

I'm not in favor of illegal immigration but I am sure as hell in favor of legal immigration of anybody that has the potential of boosting the economy. And to a lesser extent in a more limited number, defend the country so long as we maintain a healthy percentage of native born active duty.

And if you think this isn't about survival , I don't know what the heck else it could be unless you really want to live under a rock eating bugs while you pay 90% taxes to pay for all the old folks.

You want to talk about how folks will behave after TEOTWAWKI the biggest and most likely TEOTWAWKI is a economic slow collapse trying to support everybody that can't work or find jobs and the behavior will be scrimping and saving and trying to pay for the basics with what is left after taxes ...


----------



## hiwall

> You want to talk about how folks will behave after TEOTWAWKI the biggest and most likely TEOTWAWKI is a economic slow collapse trying to support everybody that can't work or find jobs and the behavior will be scrimping and saving and trying to pay for the basics with what is left after taxes ...


There is a substantial amount of my taxes that go either directly or indirectly to illegals.


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## AmmoSgt

hiwall said:


> There is a substantial amount of my taxes that go either directly or indirectly to illegals.


well legalize them and make them pay taxes or use twice as many tax dollars to round them up, try them, hold them in cells, and then deport them.

DUH


----------



## Caribou

AmmoSgt said:


> Good point yeah almost all of this is somewhere else to go or outside help
> 
> But what are you going to do , what kind of disaster would hit the USA Europe and China and not blow up the planet .. EMP might get half the US .. there Is an upper limit for man made EMP and the effect of solar max out below what man can do in degree of damage but can cover a larger area
> 
> So hmm I want to split that 4 million with you oh say 50/50 figuring without the various cease fires and safe passage deals maybe half would have escaped alive but stayed in the region and half of those would head for distant places ..and half would have died in place. If you compare the prices asked by snakeheads and coyotes and the Mediterranean people smugglers they are asking about two years worth of the local average wage almost universally , that is why such a large fraction of refugees are professional educated merchant class especially if they have families .. a lot of the young single men and boys are the risk taker class and try to make it on their own or only pay for the very hard part like crossing oceans.
> 
> s


One bomb high enough could hit almost the entire U.S. with an EMP. For the sake of argument let's say there are multiple warheads. These would take out not only the 48 States but probably the lower portion of Canada and the upper areas of Mexico.

Lets stop at this point for a minute. Who shows up to help? Nato? Possibly, but I think the most likely "help" at this point is China and/or Russia. Oops!

I don't think it would stop. I think there would be retaliation. Whether we attacked China and/or Russia or one or more of their satellite States they would both probably get drug into it. Our missiles are fired from Europe which causes retaliation from Russia(?) and now the lights are off in the northern hemisphere. Who is going to help us now? Chile? South Africa? Australia would be the most capable and likely but what could they do?

Alaska and Hawaii may not be caught in the first assault but their military assets mean that the mop up would include these and other areas as well.

Let's move on to your 50/50 scenario. Some will stay and live and others will stay and die. Many will take off looking for someplace better. Many will find it but most will not. Some will die looking for help while others will kill. Many will do both. Where does someone from a large city go to that is going to help? The rural areas produce the food for the cities but if you put up a tent city on the farm land then you can't farm it. When the entire continent is dark therein no place to go.

Scenario B- Plague. Nowhere to go because they meet you at the border with guns, lots and lots of guns. In this case you don't even have a southern hemisphere to escape to, not that you are likely to get there anyway. Percentage of survival will be dependent on how virulent the pathogen is. This is the one that could kill 90% before it burns itself out. No, not in any 30 days but within a year or two.

I tend to think worst case scenario. That's not because I believe it or expect it but because if I'm prepared for the worst possible thing I can conceive of I'm better prepared when I find out that I should have had a stronger imagination. Remember this, each of us knows people that we think are worried about things that couldn't possibly happen. Likewise, each of us is considered crazy by someone who sees us preparing 
for something that they consider impossible.

I prep because it is fun. It is something that is positive. I don't hurt anyone and I might help someone. Prepping is like driving. I don't put on a seatbelt because I expect to be in an accident but because I know the potential. I don't keep vigil against the other drivers because I think they are after me but because I know that everyone screws up from time to time. I am constantly looking for potential danger. Nobody ran a red light this time but it has happened so I'll think about it at the next light also. Constant vigilance is the price of safety.


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## AmmoSgt

Okay.. on that EMP thing Multiple warheads are not really an option on several levels ... Fratricide .. first one kills the others EMP and electrical circuits snap crackle pop and then the first one ionizes the upper atmosphere and impairs any subsequent attempts destroys any other warheads .. Real low diminishing returns threshold max is around 300-400 KT, megatons get you nothing. or at best nothing more .

But first and foremost EMP is very hit or miss http://www.futurescience.com/emp/test184.html multiple live tests over a heavily industrialized area including 
"The world's first spaceport, the Baikonur Cosmodrome, is about 300 kilometers (190 miles) to the southwest of the detonation point, and with the orientation of the geomagnetic field over Kazakhstan, the Baikonur Cosmodrome should have received some of the worst of the EMP effects, although nothing about this has been openly reported.** (See the speculations at the bottom of this page for possible effects on the Soviet space program based on documented reports of subsequent spacecraft problems.)" They kept using the Cosmodrome some stuff failed earlier than planed some stuff didn't work .. but they kept launching inconvenient not a mission stopper

Some of the worst effects happened , but not across the board not all of anything was knocked out cars weren't some generators and large transformers not all some radios not all not even the majority of anything and they did multiple tests a few at theoretical maximums. We did some, starfish prime http://www.futurescience.com/emp.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime

we are all still here street lights in Hawaii took a hit.

there will be damage most of what you see about defense is real flakey the whole faraday cage thing.. most the plans you see are for blocking radio station level transmissions .. not Carrington events

but even a Carrington sized event not the end of the world "In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the U.S. alone at $0.6-2.6 trillion.[2]" in other words worse case about a years worth of tax collection equivalent, 1/7th the current national debt, less than half what we spent of post 2008 stimulus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 just keep any wires connected to important things short you plug into a wall outlet the line runs all the way across the US BUT the first thing that blows shortens the line and the second and the third the power is calculated by watts per meter and a meter is just a few watts 200 kilometers ( 200,000 meters) packs a punch .

Horribly inconvenient but not the end of the world not a wiped clean slate anywhere


----------



## hiwall

AmmoSgt said:


> well legalize them and make them pay taxes or use twice as many tax dollars to round them up, try them, hold them in cells, and then deport them.
> 
> DUH


The legalizing them thing sure isn't working. Most do Not want to be citizens. Why should they want to be? They get it all free now. 
And about them paying taxes, every Hispanic that has ever worked for me (they passed a background check) checked the tax exempt box when they filled out their W-4 form. Every one of them, so NO taxes were withheld, both federal and state taxes.
I guess they likely paid sales tax on the things they bought at stores.

I agree it would be counter productive to deport any when the border is wide open. It would be pointless.
If the border was sealed then every federal agent in the normal course of his duties could legally check immigration status of every person he comes into contact with in the normal course of his day, all legal immigrants are required to carry paperwork showing their status. Every illegal found could be deported and the only added cost would be transportation from the arrest point. All could be deported to Mexico (no matter where they originally were from) to reduce those transportation costs to the minimum. 
All assets of these people could be seized using civil forfeiture laws that are on the books now. Deport them with just the clothes on their backs. The seized assets (money, jewelry, cars, whatever would pay most of the deportation costs. No looking for their families either, just deport every one found. After a month or two of this millions would start self-deporting.


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## AmmoSgt

hiwall if they are in US Jurisdiction they get a trial before deportation it's in the Constitution 5th Amendment due process, that's not just for citizens, that is for everybody.. lawyer if you cannot afford one , one will be appointed for you. And if you feel they need to be locked up to make sure the show while waiting for a trial . then you got to put them up, feed them, and guard them, and take care of any medical needs , You don't just ship them to the border and shove them across .. what if ICE picked you up by mistake and you couldn't prove you were a citizen on your direct short trip back to the border , or worse they just wouldn't listen. 

it you saw hinky tax stuff and didn't report it, that's on you. Any reason to think they weren't making enough to pay federal income taxes? You deducted all the SSI and state, and unemployment insurance , workman's comp, and stuff right? they shop in the local stores ? Pay rent in the local community ?

This is what I don't get , well I kind of do , but the $15 hour minimum wage pretty much wipes out eligibility for any of the Federal public assistance stuff most will get no earned income credit or food stamps , probably no section 8 housing assistance , really take a chunk out of any Obamacare subsidy .. Cut the federal deficit big time and collect a whole bunch more income taxes and social security.. that alone could save social security .. and here is the thing.. by the time you figure all the assistance they lose and calculate their increased pay for the $15 per hour.. their take home is just about a wash.. single folk come out ahead a little they weren't eligible for a lot like earned income tax credit so they didn't lose as much but families lose a lot of bennies and tax payers are off the hook for every penny. 

It really is a heck of a plan as far as cutting the Federal budget and moving the costs on to the employers. As a tax payer I like it


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## LincTex

tsrwivey said:


> One difference is we no longer have the infrastructure & skills that made that sort of trade possible. We live in a different world now. Our food supply depends on huge machinery to plant, water, & harvest the food. Few know anything about how to raise enough food to feed their own family let alone have enough to ship anywhere.


If the "Big Machine" ever comes to a grinding halt, it will be VERY difficult getting it back in motion again. Old cars & trucks that start with a hand crank are hard to find....
All the "easy oil" is gone. Imagine trying to restart a refinery - - all the people, the grid power, water, chemicals, natural gas.... INPUTS, inputs, inputs!! It'd likely never happen.

Even getting grid power back up again. Every major power plant NEEDS GRID POWER to get back online! 
If we're lucky, maybe Hoover Dam can help get things moving... but all the coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants are impossible to start unless either hooked to the grid, or you have some really huge generators available.


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## AmmoSgt

LincTex said:


> If the "Big Machine" ever comes to a grinding halt, it will be VERY difficult getting it back in motion again. Old cars & trucks that start with a hand crank are hard to find....
> All the "easy oil" is gone. Imagine trying to restart a refinery - - all the people, the grid power, water, chemicals, natural gas.... INPUTS, inputs, inputs!! It'd likely never happen.
> 
> Even getting grid power back up again. Every major power plant NEEDS GRID POWER to get back online!
> If we're lucky, maybe Hoover Dam can help get things moving... but all the coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants are impossible to start unless either hooked to the grid, or you have some really huge generators available.


One quibble , okay two, it won't be a matter of restarting a nuclear power plant.. every single on of them will go Fukushima when the last generator runs out of fuel ... scramed or not, if there is a load of fuel you have to cool them for long time or they melt down unless you unload them.

Oil there is a lot of oil above ground in storage tanks all over the place.. The National Strategic Reserve is just the start .. every storage tank in the nation is probably full and last I heard most ever port has tankers that are just being used as floating storage .. it s why OPEC and non OPEC producers are drastically cutting back production to try and bring the price back up. Nat Gas too to some extent


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## LincTex

AmmoSgt said:


> ... scramed or not, if there is a load of fuel you have to cool them for long time or they melt down unless you unload them.
> 
> .... most ever port has tankers that are just being used as floating storage ..


Removing the fuel from a reactor would be a huge challenge, yes. Just maintain waste pools of "hot" used rods is a full-time job.

You are forgetting logistics. I'm not worried about "peak oil" any more (for now, anyways...) but a huge financial crisis could leave those oil tankers out there, and never get the chance to unload.

SHTF crisis, sure - - life will go on. 
TEOTWAWKI? You'll see ships adrift because they were abandoned after not being resupplied.


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## AmmoSgt

LincTex said:


> Removing the fuel from a reactor would be a huge challenge, yes. Just maintain waste pools of "hot" used rods is a full-time job.
> 
> You are forgetting logistics. I'm not worried about "peak oil" any more (for now, anyways...) but a huge financial crisis could leave those oil tankers out there, and never get the chance to unload.
> 
> SHTF crisis, sure - - life will go on.
> TEOTWAWKI? You'll see ships adrift because they were abandoned after not being resupplied.


Fueled reactors are going to melt down and lose containment .. it going to be nasty ..
yeah somebody else was worried about the oil, I'm on solar and can make ethanol you can make bio diesel easier than refine oil Denmark practically ran a whole country on wood gas in WW2

and then there is this http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/11/gas-bag-vehicles.html artydance:


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## hiwall

There is a lot to making biodiesel plus you need the pressed oil to begin with.


> The first step in making biodiesel is called "esterification," or the acid stage. In this stage the oil is mixed with sulfuric acid and a small portion of methanol. The sulfuric acid modifies free fatty acid molecules so that the methanol can attach to them and create biodiesel. The three substances are mixed together vigorously to ensure the mix is successful.
> 
> The next step is "Transesterification," or the base stage. This involves a catalyst being added, usually Lye (Sodium Hydroxide, NaOH) or Caustic Potash(Potassium Hydroxide, KOH.) The catalys breaks apart the molecules into glycerol and fatty acid chains. Once the Molecules are broken apart the Methanol attaches to the fatty acids. The glycerol will begin to drop out of the oil into a mixture called glycerin. While this is going on a motor is mixing everything together to ensure an optimal reaction.
> 
> Next is the "Settling Period," or glycerin drop out. The oil is allowed to settle for several hours and the glycerin settles to the bottom (it's heavier than the oil and separates nicely.) Using a valve on the bottom of the machine, the glycerin is drained out leaving only biodiesel inside.





> Nat Gas too to some extent


Natural gas can not be stored very easy. It can not be put into liquid form very easy like propane. It can be stored slightly compressed in big tanks but it takes up a huge amount of room. One gas company in California used old oil wells to store natural gas. They just pumped the gas down the well and capped the top and had it stored underground. Last year one of those wells started leaking the huge amount of natural gas and it caused huge problems. 
*California gas leak was the worst man-made greenhouse-gas disaster in U.S. history*
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-s-history-study-says/?utm_term=.0cacb67def46


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## AmmoSgt

make your own bio diesel http://www.saferwholesale.com/40-Ga...eel&gpla=pla&gclid=CPmG7Nqs79ACFdQ6gQodasMDPA

LNG transport http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-railway-natgas-insight-idUSKBN0ER0D620140616 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_carrier http://www.clarksons.com/services/broking/lng/


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## terri9630

AmmoSgt said:


> hiwall if they are in US Jurisdiction they get a trial before deportation it's in the Constitution 5th Amendment due process, that's not just for citizens, that is for everybody.. lawyer if you cannot afford one , one will be appointed for you. And if you feel they need to be locked up to make sure the show while waiting for a trial . then you got to put them up, feed them, and guard them, and take care of any medical needs , You don't just ship them to the border and shove them across .. what if ICE picked you up by mistake and you couldn't prove you were a citizen on your direct short trip back to the border , or worse they just wouldn't listen.
> 
> it you saw hinky tax stuff and didn't report it, that's on you. Any reason to think they weren't making enough to pay federal income taxes? You deducted all the SSI and state, and unemployment insurance , workman's comp, and stuff right? they shop in the local stores ? Pay rent in the local community ?
> 
> This is what I don't get , well I kind of do , but the $15 hour minimum wage pretty much wipes out eligibility for any of the Federal public assistance stuff most will get no earned income credit or food stamps , probably no section 8 housing assistance , really take a chunk out of any Obamacare subsidy .. Cut the federal deficit big time and collect a whole bunch more income taxes and social security.. that alone could save social security .. and here is the thing.. by the time you figure all the assistance they lose and calculate their increased pay for the $15 per hour.. their take home is just about a wash.. single folk come out ahead a little they weren't eligible for a lot like earned income tax credit so they didn't lose as much but families lose a lot of bennies and tax payers are off the hook for every penny.
> 
> It really is a heck of a plan as far as cutting the Federal budget and moving the costs on to the employers. As a tax payer I like it


 My cousin in Seattle was ecstatic when she got her "raise". Until her hours were cut and then she was later replaced by a machine. Now not only was she unemployed she also had to deal with all the prices that were going up because of the min wage increases and the insurance penalty because she didn't want to have to pay for insurance that was unaffordable even with the subsidy.


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## AmmoSgt

terri9630 said:


> My cousin in Seattle was ecstatic when she got her "raise". Until her hours were cut and then she was later replaced by a machine. Now not only was she unemployed she also had to deal with all the prices that were going up because of the min wage increases and the insurance penalty because she didn't want to have to pay for insurance that was unaffordable even with the subsidy.


yeah sorry to hear that.. any big change is bad for everybody .. everybody should know I'm real anti conspiracy by now... but how neatly that $15 per hour thing cuts public assistance and on balance the workers don't bring home a penny more after having their taxes increase and their bennies cut .. I don't think $15 was a random number , but they sold it to the minimum wage workers and had them fight for it ...

It is pretty genius .. it cuts the fed budget by tons it give a kick start to inflation that will weaken the dollar and improve our exports while making imports more expensive boosting folks buying American made stuff helping manufacturing, and the inflation makes our debt easier to pay off, and puts all the hurt/ cost on the retail businesses and low wage workers.

I also mention earlier on this thread I think shtf is a, or can be, an individual thing .. the whole world smoothly running all around you but you are locked out ... I think that has just started .. i'm thinking that locked out group could end up being 50% of better as the robots kick in Read this articles this week http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-warehouse-robots/ and you got Trumps pick for Secretary of Labor http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/08/us/politics/andrew-puzder-labor-secretary-trump.html?_r=0 anti minimum wage and very pro robot/automation and anti union

looks like hard times ahead for some segments of the work force.


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## Siskiyoumom

I recently read an article regarding how much a single mother of three gets in California on welfare and all the assistance programs (WIC, Medicaid, rent and utilities, SNAP, and childcare).

It added up to about $10,000 more than a beginning teacher' salary. 

So, for some it is easier and more beneficial to be on the dole, than to go to a trade school or even graduate from high school.

When the EBT or SNAP card does not work when the momma goes to the store most will be out there angered over not getting what is owed them.


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## tikiman

Siskiyoumom said:


> I recently read an article regarding how much a single mother of three gets in California on welfare and all the assistance programs (WIC, Medicaid, rent and utilities, SNAP, and childcare).
> 
> It added up to about $10,000 more than a beginning teacher' salary.
> 
> So, for some it is easier and more beneficial to be on the dole, than to go to a trade school or even graduate from high school.
> 
> When the EBT or SNAP card does not work when the momma goes to the store most will be out there angered over not getting what is owed them.


Same problem all over in California . Dam state is more concerned with giving, its just forcing the amount of " I deserve help" groups even larger. AND the attitude! Tell them no and they get hostile, come back to steal, destroy stuff etc. to get back at you. Police are told to use soft gloves on them. YEAH... If the help gets cut off its going to be a mess. These aren't the old derelicts of old, most are 20-30 somethings. These people will riot and burn now for barely a reason. This is what I see as the locusts. They will take what they want, killing if need be. Sad part is they take the help and resources away from those who truly need them.


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## Grimm

tikiman said:


> Same problem all over in California . Dam state is more concerned with giving, its just forcing the amount of " I deserve help" groups even larger. AND the attitude! Tell them no and they get hostile, come back to steal, destroy stuff etc. to get back at you. Police are told to use soft gloves on them. YEAH... If the help gets cut off its going to be a mess. These aren't the old derelicts of old, most are 20-30 somethings. These people will riot and burn now for barely a reason. This is what I see as the locusts. They will take what they want, killing if need be. Sad part is they take the help and resources away from those who truly need them.


As someone living in California I see this everyday. The worst of it is that those that really need the hand up can't get it. When Roo was born K was laid off from his job. Unemployment barely covered the rent and nothing else. (rent = $1200, unemployment = $1250) Roo didn't qualify for WIC because K made too much before he was laid off. No food pantry would help because we did not qualify (K made too much that year). Welfare was a no go as K had made too much that year. We started selling our furniture and other items just to pay the utilities. This is when I decided we needed to start prepping.


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