# Bugging out. Will you?



## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

Sandy is a nice example of what actually happens. Why don't people just leave?
Simply put it's resources and normalcy bias. People don't have resources to drive out or a place to go if they did. This is text book on what happens in real SHTF situations. People see adversity. They seek normalcy. Normalcy is what they do every other day. Bugging out or simply leaving the disaster area is the logical thing to do. Few do why? Where are all those that said they would bug out to the forest? The big woods? Take a boat to shores unknown. We have many folks that post about how they will bug out from the megaopolis. Did you? Do you have the resources? Do you think all will be ok in a few days? Why do you think this? Is it facts or normalcy bias. 


Ask yourself the hard questions. Will you really feel different when SHTF for real. Or will you act to late?


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## Nadja (Jan 12, 2011)

I think that you don't know much about the area itself. First of all, it is challenged in highways leading out of the cities. Then you have to factor in that most back there don't have cars as they cannot afford to buy parking spaces for them. Now, take into account that even with the access roads in and out, most of them have been damaged also. 

Now, most probably don't have anywhere to go anyway and no supplies to get them there.


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

Nadja said:


> I think that you don't know much about the area itself. First of all, it is challenged in highways leading out of the cities. Then you have to factor in that most back there don't have cars as they cannot afford to buy parking spaces for them. Now, take into account that even with the access roads in and out, most of them have been damaged also.
> 
> Now, most probably don't have anywhere to go anyway and no supplies to get them there.


I grew up in Northern NJ, Morris county to be exact. I have an idea of the area. Plus, It's only 60 miles to my south east. 
Most in the hardest hit areas do have cars. Only Manhattan is different I doubt any real prepper finds that area acceptable.

The rest of your post proves the point. Most who say they can and will bug out. Can't or won't.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

Its a fair questiin I think. At what point do you realize s has hit the fan to the point that you abondon the life youve built for a different horizon? And can you make the hard decision when the time comes?

For those of us without the means for a bol and life circumstances that hold us in an uninhabitatle spot in that situation its going to be a tough choice if not actually forced into it. Thats when most folks will leave I suppose.

The way to help this transitiin is to prep. Not only stockpiling food and ammo. Thats great but I feel the need to also have a well practiced plan and destinations that have been carefully recon'd. Knowing where Im going and what to expect when I get there will really make me more comfortable making the decision when the time comes to make it. Thats why I always say prep and PRACTICE! Taking away the mystery and uncertainty of the unknown is the only way to be sure you make the right decision when the time comes.


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> Its a fair questiin I think. At what point do you realize s has hit the fan to the point that you abondon the life youve built for a different horizon? And can you make the hard decision when the time comes?
> 
> For those of us without the means for a bol and life circumstances that hold us in an uninhabitatle spot in that situation its going to be a tough choice if not actually forced into it. Thats when most folks will leave I suppose.
> 
> The way to help this transitiin is to prep. Not only stockpiling food and ammo. Thats great but I feel the need to also have a well practiced plan and destinations that have been carefully recon'd. Knowing where Im going and what to expect when I get there will really make me more comfortable making the decision when the time comes to make it. Thats why I always say prep and PRACTICE! Taking away the mystery and uncertainty of the unknown is the only way to be sure you make the right decision when the time comes.


Very good post. You didn't say it. But I think you suggest mental preparation is more important than physical preparation.

With this I agree 100%


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

stanb999 said:


> Sandy is a nice example of what actually happens. Why don't people just leave?
> Simply put it's resources and normalcy bias. People don't have resources to drive out or a place to go if they did. This is text book on what happens in real SHTF situations. People see adversity. They seek normalcy. Normalcy is what they do every other day. Bugging out or simply leaving the disaster area is the logical thing to do. Few do why? Where are all those that said they would bug out to the forest? The big woods? Take a boat to shores unknown. We have many folks that post about how they will bug out from the megaopolis. Did you? Do you have the resources? Do you think all will be ok in a few days? Why do you think this? Is it facts or normalcy bias.
> 
> Ask yourself the hard questions. Will you really feel different when SHTF for real. Or will you act to late?


I think that for many people, it is the perceived responsibility that will hold them there a minute too long (I am not talking just this latest NewYork issue) - the perceived responsibility to their job due to their boss saying "*You are fired if you don't come into work*", the perceived responsibility to their rent / mortgage due to the bank / landlord saying "*I will take away your house if you miss your payment*", the perceived responsibitily to their loan-shark "*I will break your knees if you skip town*" ... and then you have the insurance companies saying "*We will not cover the environmental damage to your house because you left it when the house needed you more than you needed it - case closed*"

I don't know if the insurance policies are written the same way in throughout the USA as they are written here in Alberta, but, if you are away from home for more than a week and you don't have someone trusted with a key checking on the house regularly, your insurance is null-n-void if there is any form of environmental damages (backed-up sewer, power-outtage stopping the sump-pump from working, frozen pipes due to furnace not kicking in, etc) ..

There are many reasons why someone may not leave home till the last minute - I know that I will do my best to keep my job and my home as long as possible, I do plan to BugOut if required, but, I imagine that it would take the physical damage of my home to make me leave.


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## forluvofsmoke (Jan 27, 2012)

Is this a classic case of the authorities not wanting to be accused of crying wolf? I read something posted here a few days ago (possibly in the storm thread) copied/pasted from an NOAA statement where officials seemed to indicate that they didn't want to over-emphasize the storm.

On the other hand, a forced, mandated evacuation would have been in order had all the signs been taken seriously, but where do you evacuate to when there are millions of people in the path of the storm, and how do you evacuate this many people in such a short time period? Then, how many people would just stay behind for fear of loosing everything if they leave due to storm damage and looters, and how many looters would take advantage of the evacuation? Those numbers would be quite high, I'm sure. These are just a few of the things that officials must consider when ordering an evacuation...this is a huge area they were looking at, with differing levels and types of possible damage. Emergency management officials do not have any easy decisions to make, pre and post event, and ordering an evacuation would have come with a huge out-cry from the public, mainly those who don't prepare, which is the majority.

Considering that many in the city, especially those in high-rise complexes, would have little to no means to prepare for a situation of this magnitude, the prospect of being without any water, food, heat, cooking, heating and lights for extended periods, should provide adequate incentive to at least have a bug-out plan and minimal supplies for when they get there.

Complacency is a key factor which many just can't get past..."it will be OK, there will be help, we don't need to do anything, we can just stay right here and wait"...unfortunately, the reality is rarely what they perceived it would be. This is not the way people who prepare think, and those of us who frequently visit this and other similar websites know exactly what I mean. We know that you can't rely on anyone else to be responsible for your well-being when the chips are down, so you take the responsibility and do what you feel is necessary to be prepared to the best of your means.

The sad reality of this whole scenario is that it's not over yet. The storm has left behind massive damage, yes, but there are still people who are in dire need of help. This won't be the last major event in coming months and years, so, hopefully, the lessons to be learned from this storm will be taken seriously by everyone it has effected (the public and officials included) and they will take action and make better decisions in the future.

I'm not trying to bash anyone here, only send a reminder that things of this magnitude are never going to be handled the way many of us may think it should be handled...things get complicated quickly when you're dealing with heavily populated areas when SHTF.

I have limited experience with being involved in emergency response teams, and emergency management. With mock emergency training drills and actual scenarios alike, nothing is easy, but you fall back on your training, maintain your chain of command, priorities, recon and information, and do the best that you can with the resources and staffing available to you. I'm sure that in this case, emergency teams and management are doing the best they can, as well...again, it's never easy. The best emergency management strategy is prevention, though we can't win a fight against nature, we can learn to go with the flow, read the signs, and prepare for worst-case situations as best we can, and realize that nothing we do will be perfect, because this is not a perfect world.


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## Hooch (Jul 22, 2011)

One thing that stood out to me as I looked at the areas that were damaged is all these houses n businesses build on basically marches n sand bars..

My guess is most folks wouldnt even notice n question that would be a bad idea to begin with n kick in the normalcy bias not realize they are in danger to begin with...

I've had the opportunity to work on some emergency crews during floods here in Cali...I recall one time down in the Hollister area we were watching these multi million dollar houses slowly crumble off of and into a small creek that became a rushing monster during this rainy period. Although the houses were build on the elevated side, it was in the natural flood plain n if one has ever spend time around creeks n rivers they tend to move around over the years...so durin the flood stage it was eating away at the side n bend n down came the pretty houses...

that was a real eyeopener for me to pay attention to when I bought a house to check out what n where it is built.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

A large part of people being reluctant to leave their home during an emergency is the amount that they have invested in the home and it's trappings, Marketers have convinced people to spend every cent keeping up with their peers and neibhors so they don't have a cushion to fall on if things dom't go as they plan, a lay off or anything out of the ordinary can make them believe that they will loose it all. so they try to stay where they feel safe. These people may not have ever had to think outside of the Nanny state and don't know what to do. But if they were told to get somewhere safe, they should have listened.


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## mosquitomountainman (Jan 25, 2010)

stanb999 said:


> Very good post. You didn't say it. But I think you suggest mental preparation is more important than physical preparation.
> 
> With this I agree 100%


I believe that they go hand-in-hand. Most of those I know who are mentally prepared are also physically prepared. IMO practice/rehearsals are the key. Collect your supplies, make your plans, then do a dress rehearsal. Evaluate the rehearsal, make your improvements then do it again.

People in heavily populated areas need to cultivate friendships and MAG's with those outside the area long before a disaster strikes. Use the regional sections of this forum if you need to meet others to form a mutual aid group (MAG) but do it long before you need to bug-out.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

In the Sandy scenario, people had plenty of warning. But it covered(or expected to cover) a large area. If you were on Manhattan you would have had to drive a loooong way to get out of the storm path(and find a motel that was not full). And like stated above, many do not own cars. If everyone with a car tried to leave it would plug the roads solid. It is/was just a bad situation. If you live there you just have to hope stuff like this or worse does not happen. Alot of people there will be getting checks from their insurance company- -a excellent time to take the money and run to a more prepper friendly area.


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## GrinnanBarrett (Aug 31, 2012)

It has a lot to do with prior life experiences. When i was 13 years old I lived on the Gulf Coast and survived a category 4 hurricane. I do mean survive it. We tried to stick it out and barely got out with our lives. We had a swamp buggy truck and the water was in the cab as we tried to leave. We loaded as many neighbors as would go in tge truck. Those who came with us lived and those who stayed died. 

I never want to go through that experience again. I can remember the faces of the kids to this day as we drove out. Their parents did not believe it would get that bad. 

After that we had two trailers ready all the time. One was a cargo unit and the other a 21 foot travel trailer. When it looked like it might get bad we hooked up the two trailers to our vehicles with the stuff we needed and wanted to keep safe along with our food and other supplies and we headed inland to set up in a KOA or similar. 

It is sort of like the twin towers on 9/11. The people who jumped up and left the towers right after the first plane hit lived. Those who followed directions like robots died. Get out as quick as you can. Get to a safe place and live. GB


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## invision (Aug 14, 2012)

Yeah, but look at Chris Christy... He wanted people out, then he had a mayor tell his community to stay and weather the storm. People look to elected officials in times of potential disaster for guidance... How ridiculous was that mayors comments? He should be held responsible for his comments... Like that will happen?!?


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## Nadja (Jan 12, 2011)

I really think that most people are fooling themselves when they think that they will bug out. When push comes to shove, most will stay home, as that is where they are comphy and when faced with the unkown, they will falter about leaving relitive safty behind. Your home is your castle and that is about 95% of the peoples minds. Bugging in would be the most likely answer really . 

So, maybe everyone should be prepping more for this than "bugging" out. Are you really planing on bugging out ? Is your wife ? how about your kids ?

Think about your wife and kids. Do you know how hard it is just to convince them your going to move because of a better job offer in another town ? Now how are you going to convince them that you only have minutes to bug out to the woods? Especially in the winter. 

I really think most peple are not honest with themselves when it comes to this. We are all conditioned to live in our nice warm and dry houses. A sudden change is more then most people can handle, and will falter at the last minute, and stay.


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

Nadja said:


> I really think that most people are fooling themselves when they think that they will bug out. When push comes to shove, most will stay home, as that is where they are comphy and when faced with the unkown, they will falter about leaving relitive safty behind. Your home is your castle and that is about 95% of the peoples minds. Bugging in would be the most likely answer really .
> 
> So, maybe everyone should be prepping more for this than "bugging" out. Are you really planing on bugging out ? Is your wife ? how about your kids ?
> 
> ...


My decision is easier than most as I am single, youngish, and well prepared for what I will face in a few different locations. I do have older parents in town that will not leave their home nor should they. They are very functional for this society. But bad knees and type 2 diabetes would make the hard life difficult. That is my first bugout spot. Too bad they live in a nice house in a good part of town. Hopefully I can graduate and have a suitable spot to relocate them before shtf because I sure as hell cant and wont leave em to their own devices. Dont worry though, my sleeves are long, deep, and full of craftiness.


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> My decision is easier than most as I am single, youngish, and well prepared for what I will face in a few different locations. I do have older parents in town that will not leave their home nor should they. They are very functional for this society. But bad knees and type 2 diabetes would make the hard life difficult. That is my first bugout spot. Too bad they live in a nice house in a good part of town. Hopefully I can graduate and have a suitable spot to relocate them before shtf because I sure as hell cant and wont leave em to their own devices. Dont worry though, my sleeves are long, deep, and full of craftiness.


However your life situation will hopefully change. Then you will have a full family. Let this knowledge guide you where you settle down and start a life. It's hard to start a new life.

That's why the young have energy,


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

For some (like me) bugging out is no big deal. Being retired, just take the RV and leave(I camp often). For younger people with jobs, kids, a mortgage, car payments it is much more difficult. You can not just walk off your job and think it will be there if you come back. No job soon equals no house and no cars for most people. Many people with kids do not have a big savings account, especially after the lean economy the last few years. You can not expect them to just "bug out". Unless they have family that will take them in, most have no where to go. There is(will be) a need for government run shelters. It is not just for the lazy welfare crowd but for hard working people that just have a hard time making ends meet.


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## 101airborne (Jan 29, 2010)

stanb999 said:


> Very good post. You didn't say it. But I think you suggest mental preparation is more important than physical preparation.
> 
> With this I agree 100%


 I'll have to disagree with that. Being mentally prepared is a big part of prepping. HOWEVER, no matter how well mentally prepared yu are it won't do you any good with out food, water, and shelter. To me they are equally important and go hand in hand. One does not do you a lot of good without the other.


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

Having somewhere to Bug Out to would be one of my concerns. And if that is what I'm trying to do, I have to be very concerned about the roads and infrastructure to allow me to do it! 

In SoCal we dont generally get the kind of storms that are famous in the midwest and east coasts. Hurricanes, tornado's, ice storms... none of that really happens much here. On the other hand, we can and do get very serious fire storms (there's a SHTF scenario right there), plus some of the earthquakes can be much larger than just a localized event. And like Hooch mentioned we get flooding when the big storms come through.

any of those events could make bugging out a good plan on paper but impossible to put into motion. You cant bug out through flooded roads, creeks and rivers, and you cant drive over downed bridges and washed away roads. And in a storm like Sandy... good grief, it was 1000 miles across?? 

I guess I could get to family in AZ if I needed to and roads were passable, but I dont see that as being a huge win other than leaving this area if it were affected. It's only 400 miles away so in the case of this storm or some other hypothetical situation, that still might not be far enough.

Bugging out sucks... if at all possible I'm in favor of bugging in!


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## CrackbottomLouis (May 20, 2012)

oldsoldier said:


> I'll have to disagree with that. Being mentally prepared is a big part of prepping. HOWEVER, no matter how well mentally prepared yu are it won't do you any good with out food, water, and shelter. To me they are equally important and go hand in hand. One does not do you a lot of good without the other.


I agree completely. The two do go hand in hand. I dont see how you can have one without the other but I suppose there are some folks who have a clost of rice and beans and a rifle and consider themselves ready for all comers.

The problem really comes down to (in the context laid out) is at what point do you bugout with preps for what may be a short term emergency? Most people in NY and NJ are fine just uncomfortable. Then you have the folks whose homes were completely destroyed by fire or water. A house full of preps dont do ya anygood if your house burns down or is washed away. Its a hard decision to make (leaving everything with what you have) if all you can rely on is the news and public service announcements. If the news started telling me to leave because of bad tornadoes comin my way Id probably sit tight with my preps. If my spot was destroyed Id be hatin life. That being said those badly affected are much less than those in discomfort. If most had prepped appropriately gov could focus more easily on those with true need.


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## forluvofsmoke (Jan 27, 2012)

CrackbottomLouis said:


> *EDITED:*
> Its a hard decision to make (leaving everything with what you have) if all you can rely on is the news and public service announcements. If the news started telling me to leave because of bad tornadoes comin my way Id probably sit tight with my preps. If my spot was destroyed Id be hatin life. *If most had prepped appropriately gov could focus more easily on those with true need.*


For us, tornadoes are a serious threat, living in a mobile home. We have preps for bugging out in that case, and will have it loaded into one vehicle ready to go when that seasons starts again. We'll have enough to last us up to 4 weeks with local family and a handful of others who may need help. If relocating to another home takes longer than that, well, it would have to be caused by most of the community being totally destroyed. For most everything else, short of heavy ash fallout if Yellowstone blew it's cork rendering this area useless and uninhabitable (or some other unforeseen major catastrophic event), we'll shelter in place, and have preps for that as well.

Basically, this gives us the option to stay or leave in nearly any situation, because we don't have all of our eggs in one basket.

Definitely agree with your last statement...even if folks only had a week supply, they could handle most things one their own for long enough to let emergency response teams and aid groups focus on those who are really hurting. With more people prepared, less would be in need of immediate attention, other than medical for serious injuries, and those needing rescue.

What's sad is that most people don't even realize it, but, it doesn't take much to keep you going for several days...not much at all. A few dollars extra here and there at the stores (so little you'll hardly notice it, even when on a tight budget), and before you know it, you have a 5-7 day survival bag (yeah, I don't buy into the 72-hrs at all), complete with food, water and water purification, temporary shelter, sleep-gear, lighting, tools, first aid, and whatever else you might fancy, like a change of clothes and hygiene supplies. It's easy and inexpensive insurance, IMHO, and other than a few items which will deteriorate or have expiration dates, you only have to pay for it once, unlike an insurance policy. If everyone would build a BOB geared specifically for natural disasters, when the situation arises, it wouldn't be nearly as serious as they are in today's society...way too many sheeple to ever make it happen, though.


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

IMHO, the biggest problem with the people affected by Sandy is that not one of them seems to be a prepper. They didn't have supplies and they didn't have a plan. They are still waiting for the government to help them. The second biggest problem is that the only people who have guns are the criminals since those areas affected are also big gun control areas.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

stanb999 said:


> Sandy is a nice example of what actually happens. Why don't people just leave?
> 
> Simply put it's resources and normalcy bias. People don't have resources to drive out or a place to go if they did. This is text book on what happens in real SHTF situations. People see adversity. They seek normalcy. Normalcy is what they do every other day. Bugging out or simply leaving the disaster area is the logical thing to do. Few do why? Where are all those that said they would bug out to the forest? The big woods? Take a boat to shores unknown. We have many folks that post about how they will bug out from the megaopolis. Did you? Do you have the resources? Do you think all will be ok in a few days? Why do you think this? Is it facts or normalcy bias.
> 
> Ask yourself the hard questions. Will you really feel different when SHTF for real. Or will you act to late?


Well, I am not sure a boat would be a good idea in a Hurricane.... and most people who suggest that they will bug out to the forest are NUTZ. I suppose it's possible, but it's definitely a worst case scenario, and particularly a bad idea to abandon shelter with a massive hurricane on the way!

There are lots of people on this site who say they won't bug out period, fact is that's crazy talk too, there are always going to be situations that require bug out or bug in.

99% of being a prepper is the mentality, being able to tell the difference between bug in and bug out, to tell the difference between acting like the rule of law exists or as if the only law left is the natural law, to tell the difference between friend and foe, safety and ambush, etc. etc. It all comes down to the ability to prudently make life and death choices, when it counts. Preps are AWESOME, and I hope my preps help someone survive (preferable me and mine), but the fact of the matter is that there are lots of things that could separate me from my preps or destroy them, and I am not going to die clinging to my preps. Fact is I could survive without my preps, but I can't survive without my life. When your a prepper your preps can become part of your normalcy bias.

Lots of people look to the Government to tell them when to bug out, personally when the Government makes its socially and legally acceptable to bug out 9 times out of 10 I will take their suggestion. The problem is that the government's main goal is to maintain order, and this end does not always correspond with your survival.

Others look to the media, but sensationalism often makes this an unreliable source.

Still others look to peer pressure, the herd mentality, which of course is the WORST possible source of information, not just because its often unreliable, but because even when the mob is right the herd often makes a bad situation worse. Beating the herd to the exit, or waiting them out in a safe corner, is really the key to survival.

Others look to their life experience forgetting the fact that history often repeats itself but rarely twice in the same lifetime.

Our normal life experiences are not what we need to study, what we need to study is history. Its funny how this summer folks were concerned that NOLA could get hit again, I suppose its possible, but while everyone was worried about NOLA, many folks in NJ/NY ignored the power of mother nature, that we saw in New Orleans. DUMB :nuts:

First time preppers are often told to think about what you are prepping for so that you can think through concrete scenarios to decide upon the preps you will need to survive. *This is also what all of us should do regarding bugging out. *

Living on the coast where we are regularly threatened by storms, and having been woken up by Katrina, I have realized that almost every low lying community near the water if vulnerable to a direct hit. In fact I've been told that a Katrina style direct hit would wipe my town off the map. Then Fukashima woke me up to the dangers that nuclear energy plants (which surround Boston) pose to long term survival. Thankfully I had a place that I owned, with secret thoughts of using it as a BOL, which was bought primarily for recreation, and so I started thinking about the scenarios that would lead me to likely bug in or out.

Here is my list in order of likelihood, and followed by my likely response:

Fire--Bug out 
Blizzard--Bug in
Hurricane threat--bug in, seal up windows, check fuel and preload cars, montitor situation.
Hurricane Glancing blow--bug in
Hurricane Direct Hit--Bug Out
Terroist attack--Bug in monitor situation
Nuclear Plant Emergency--Bug Out
Economic Collapse-- bug in, seal up windows, check fuel and preload cars, montitor situation.
Airborn Radio Isotopes, Chemical agents, or Epidemic/Plague--bug in, establish Biohazard Precautions, seal house, prepare to bug out once roads are empty if possible.
Long term loss of grid power--bug out
Societal Collapse/breakdown of the rule of law--Bug Out ASAP if possible, monitor situation for a possible short term bug in.
Typhoon--Bug out ASAP abandon everything!
Meteror--bug out.
Nuclear war--Bug in, until first volley is over, then bug out ASAP to avoid as much fallout as possible.

When sandy hit I was bugged out, not because of Sandy but because I was testing out my Bug Out plan. I was alone, with my family near the coast however and so I followed my own plans instructing my family to be ready to bug out if the storm turned north towards us. Thankfully my family made it through mostly unscathed; having the mentality that nothing is as important as my life and the lives of those for whom I am resposible, gives me the peace of mind of knowing that I would do what is necessary to protect those lives in a heart beat.


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

Padre said:


> Well, I am not sure a boat would be a good idea in a Hurricane.... and most people who suggest that they will bug out to the forest are NUTZ. I suppose it's possible, but it's definitely a worst case scenario, and particularly a bad idea to abandon shelter with a massive hurricane on the way!
> 
> There are lots of people on this site who say they won't bug out period, fact is that's crazy talk too, there are always going to be situations that require bug out or bug in.
> 
> ...


Very thought filled posting. Thank you.

What is your opinion on the probability you will know the difference between a minor and major situation? For instance.

This storm was suddenly coupled with a financial collapse. You were thinking storm. Then the markets have major issues due to the sudden realization that 100's of billions in claims are due.

I guess what has always troubled me with bugging out is never knowing if this is "IT". I think most will think it isn't "IT" until too late. I do agree about certain situations where bugging out would be preferred for local events like fire, flood etc.


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## Startingout-Blair (Aug 28, 2012)

I think that may be the biggest issue for most when deciding to big-in versus bug-out. Is this really a SHTF situation? If I big-out, then $hit doesn't really happen, what do I do if I've lost my job, etc. I think people that do prep have that fear that if they do react, and it is not the level of SHTF they expected, what circumstances will they face upon returning home. This causes some to waiver during decision-making time, which in itself, could be deadly. How do we know when the situation is real or just blown out of proportion?


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Startingout-Blair said:


> I think that may be the biggest issue for most when deciding to big-in versus bug-out. Is this really a SHTF situation? If I big-out, then $hit doesn't really happen, what do I do if I've lost my job, etc.


With a storm like Sandy its a acute event that happens and hits hard or doesn't. Particularly when the Gov and Weather folks are forecasting a storm and issuing warnings I would think that most jobs would be closed down anyway, the only exception being essential services like medical and emergency services (perhaps utility workers too), these are the tough cases. In fact in many places its illegal, and perhaps immoral, to abandon those entrusted to your care (hospitals and nursing homes). I do not envy the decision making process that these people will have to make if the Shit Hits the Fan. However, for most people you could either take a day off or take a sick day, if you didn't find your business closed by the threat of a storm, and bug out, coming back ASAP if it proves to be a false alarm. Even if you can't leave, however, most people could sacrifice a nights sleep to get their family, and perhaps some of your preps, out of town. You might be exhausted driving round trip to a BOL, but it will be worth it to have what you value most and what you need to survive out of harms way, even if you have to bug out under not ideal circumstances. Even if you just get them a motel room a few hours out of harms way, you can make it a lot easier for you to survive if you don't have to factor them in (particularly if your group includes children and the elderly). For instance a nurse or doctor who has gotten their family away safely might be able to sleep at their hospital which is usually pretty squared away for a SHTF.

Storms are easy I think, economic collapse is harder, because there is a difference between financial collapse, which is really a matter of electronic ones and zeros being lost and real economic collapse, which is an inability of the economy to function, people to buy and sell and work. Economic collapse by definition leads to societal collapse (unless it is VERY quickly resolved).



stanb999 said:


> What is your opinion on the probability you will know the difference between a minor and major situation?
> 
> This storm was suddenly coupled with a financial collapse. You were thinking storm. Then the markets have major issues due to the sudden realization that 100's of billions in claims are due.
> 
> I guess what has always troubled me with bugging out is never knowing if this is "IT". I think most will think it isn't "IT" until too late. I do agree about certain situations where bugging out would be preferred for local events like fire, flood etc.


Again you can't bug out based on hypothetical scenarios, tomorrow anything could happen, what you need to focus on is the situation that is REAL and the hypothetical effects of the real situation. If you're near the coast a storm itself could require Bug Out, so focus on that, on making distinctions between types of storms and storm tracks, look at what historically has caused devastation and use that for your bench mark for bugging out. For instance, in my situation I have decided that if we loose power for five days, and it doesn't look hopeful that we are going to have it restored anytime soon, I am bugging out, because I am worried about the ability of the nuclear power plants around me to regulate the temperature in the spent fuel pools without grid power and the long term effects of no power (refrigeration/heating/water) on my neighbors. In terms of a storm, I am bugging out if a storm looks likely to come ashore anywhere from NYC to Boston. In terms of Economic collapse however, I think that it is likely not to be a acute event but a chronic illness in society (that perhaps has already started) and that will progress until several things happen that make the economy and society completely implode. Business will need to realize that their goods and services are much more valuable than green paper. People will need to realize that their labor is more value than ones and zeros with a dollar sign in front of it, people will need time to realize that the government can't get control of the situation, and that no things are not going to be the same. With an economic collapse I would like to get out of dodge before the utilities start failing, but my gut tells me that most people will not have meaningful employment even before that happens. Society is based on a great amount of FAITH, often called Normalcy Bias, and this faith like REAL religious faith, is dispensed with only slowly and painfully.

So in answer to your question I would focus on the PHYSICAL situation and how it is progressing to make my determination about Bug Out. I have bugged out (not a drill) only once in my life 9-11, so its not like its an every day occurrence.


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## Nadja (Jan 12, 2011)

Very good posting and a lot for most to think about. However, I and my wife being well in to our mid 60's to early 70's , we made our choice many years ago. I left my corporate type job and moved up here to the mountains , way out from normal channels. We also decided that as our age dictated to us, that we would never more be able to bug out to the hills and survive, although we could take many certain steps to help prevent that from happening to us. We live totally off the grid, making all our own power, with solar and wind. We also have 3 back up gennies to make up for the stormy days. 

Since there are no nuke targets around us anywhere, no ocean's or coast line close by, and we are way out of the tornado belt, fire would be our worst major enemy. Also by talking to a friend, who worked in the nuke bomb making business, I was shown a map of likely fallout, and believe me, we are also in a narrow corridor where it would be very unlikely to happen. 

After years of struggling to make it all happen, I get no elec bills, garbage bills, water or most other types of bills other then propane for heat and cooking. My taxes are less then $100.00 per year. I have done this, as when we bought the un-improved land here many years ago, Apache county had no building department for anything besides the local towns. I just never told them we put a mobil in or septic system. In fact, I never told them anything at all. 

Food stored, gas , propane, water and of course elect all taken care of. If/should the economy go, I will pull out my garden seeds and plant my old rear end off. I also may partake in the Anteope, Elk, Bear, and range cow heards should the need ever really arise. 

So, to sum it all up, here is where we stay. Also, should mention that myself and most of my friends are all vets from the mid-60,s, so should you find my place, I could put a world of hurt on you before you even got here. Questions ?


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Nadja said:


> So, to sum it all up, here is where we stay. Also, should mention that myself and most of my friends are all vets from the mid-60,s, so should you find my place, I could put a world of hurt on you before you even got here. Questions ?


Hey, if you can't bug out and survive it makes no logical sense to fault you for not preparing to bug out. That being said:fire (not just in your house but also widespread forest fires), roving gangs of marauders, severe droughts, etc. may make bug out necessary if you want to survive. It sounds to me like you are saying you don't WANT to bug out, and I get it 100%, if I was in as nice a situation as you neither would I ($100 tax bill, really:?), that is a perfectly valid position, but my philosophy is: why not at least have a minimal plan and supplies ready, just in case. If 2 is 1 and 1 is none, then only one plan is no plan. Even if its just a matter of abandoning your home for a few days in the face of a superior forces of criminals, or surviving the elements if your house burnt down? Are you really saying that you wouldn't get out of the house? And if you would do what a normal person would, get out, if the house was on fire, are you really saying that its acceptible for you and your bride to be homeless, supply-less, and hungry, having no supplies or preps other than the food on our backs?


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

Padre said:


> Hey, if you can't bug out and survive it makes no logical sense to fault you for not preparing to bug out. That being said:fire (not just in your house but also widespread forest fires), roving gangs of marauders, severe droughts, etc. may make bug out necessary if you want to survive. It sounds to me like you are saying you don't WANT to bug out, and I get it 100%, if I was in as nice a situation as you neither would I ($100 tax bill, really:?), that is a perfectly valid position, but my philosophy is: why not at least have a minimal plan and supplies ready, just in case. If 2 is 1 and 1 is none, then only one plan is no plan. Even if its just a matter of abandoning your home for a few days in the face of a superior forces of criminals, or surviving the elements if your house burnt down? Are you really saying that you wouldn't get out of the house? And if you would do what a normal person would, get out, if the house was on fire, are you really saying that its acceptible for you and your bride to be homeless, supply-less, and hungry, having no supplies or preps other than the food on our backs?


I think the situations being discussed are different.

Fire... Obviously you will get out, Running like mad if need be. That isn't bugging out so much as stepping out of the way. Same with storms and other "natural" events. Leaving a coastal home in the event of a hurricane isn't bugging out. It's the simple application of logic.

Bugging out to me is the leaving of it all and holing up for uncertain long term (years) to permanent changes in the societal/social structure. That makes your current place unlivable or survivable. Like a total collapse of government, Nuclear war, pandemic flue.

Maybe we aren't discussing the same thing? My opening post was about the later event precipitated by a more normal event. Or How will you know that it's so bad it's time to bug out. My contention was and is that most people will stay till after escape is impossible or improbable.


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## sdgmcdon (May 6, 2012)

In a situation like Sandy bugging out is a no brainer, personally I don't even get the question...If I lived in an area that could get hit by a hurricane and one was coming, you could bet your butt myself, family, animals and valued belongings would be gone long before it hit. 

But other than those types of scenarios, I know a lot of people have "bug out bags" to grab and take when leaving their home on FOOT...To that I ask; what could happen that would make you have to leave your home ON FOOT? 

I've got bug out stuff in my garage, but it's there to go into my JEEP if I need to bug out...I have no plans to leave on foot and couldn't imagine what could happen that could make me need to leave on foot...am I missing something?


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

sdgmcdon said:


> In a situation like Sandy bugging out is a no brainer, personally I don't even get the question...If I lived in an area that could get hit by a hurricane and one was coming, you could bet your butt myself, family, animals and valued belongings would be gone long before it hit.
> 
> But other than those types of scenarios, I know a lot of people have "bug out bags" to grab and take when leaving their home on FOOT...To that I ask; what could happen that would make you have to leave your home ON FOOT?
> 
> I've got bug out stuff in my garage, but it's there to go into my JEEP if I need to bug out...I have no plans to leave on foot and couldn't imagine what could happen that could make me need to leave on foot...am I missing something?


It really depends..

What if your in a quarantined area for some unforeseen chemical or biological event. How about a total lock down of an area due to societal collapse and rioting. If you live in a city you should really take the time to look at your states disaster plan. They include limits on movement of people and materials. They also generally lay out where your evac. camp will be and how you will get there.Just as an example.. In Katrina it was stadiums and city buses.

Learn the plan if you wish to implement an alternative.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

stanb999 said:


> I think the situations being discussed are different.
> 
> Fire... Obviously you will get out, Running like mad if need be. That isn't bugging out so much as stepping out of the way. Same with storms and other "natural" events. Leaving a coastal home in the event of a hurricane isn't bugging out. It's the simple application of logic.
> 
> ...


Wait a minute, bugging out is bugging out my friend. What is the real difference between a short term bug out and a long term bug out? A short term bug out can become a long term one (like Sandy), and its a bad idea to focus on how long potentially you might bug out. Bug out like your gone forever and then evaluate the situation from their.

You think fire is just stepping out? What about when the fire devastates your home? You'd better hope that "stepping out" is bugging out in that case.

Bugging out is leaving your home in the face of ANY danger that could kill you with the supplies needed to survive if you can't go home (and hopefully a destination and pre-planned route). What you seem to be describing is being caught flat footed and running with your tail tucked between your legs, AKA being a refugee.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

sdgmcdon said:


> In a situation like Sandy bugging out is a no brainer, personally I don't even get the question...If I lived in an area that could get hit by a hurricane and one was coming, you could bet your butt myself, family, animals and valued belongings would be gone long before it hit.
> 
> But other than those types of scenarios, I know a lot of people have "bug out bags" to grab and take when leaving their home on FOOT...To that I ask; what could happen that would make you have to leave your home ON FOOT?
> 
> I've got bug out stuff in my garage, but it's there to go into my JEEP if I need to bug out...I have no plans to leave on foot and couldn't imagine what could happen that could make me need to leave on foot...am I missing something?


Garage burns down with car in it
Mob over runs your house blocking the road
Roads are blocked by road blocks or traffic jams
Roads are unsafe and you need to travel xcountry
EMP knocks out your car
You failed to maintain your car and it is out of commission.
Microburst/tornado takes out your house
Asteroid hits your house

Cross country is DEFINITELY a WORST CASE scenario, but a possibility, so if we are to be prepared we need to thing about it. Also, beware, I used to keep my BOB in my car, in my garage, and then I had it broken into and stolen. Now I keep it in the house. With the amount of equipment and $$ that goes into a BOB keeping it safe at home is probably a good idea.


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

Padre said:


> Wait a minute, bugging out is bugging out my friend. What is the real difference between a short term bug out and a long term bug out? A short term bug out can become a long term one (like Sandy), and its a bad idea to focus on how long potentially you might bug out. Bug out like your gone forever and then evaluate the situation from their.
> 
> You think fire is just stepping out? What about when the fire devastates your home? You'd better hope that "stepping out" is bugging out in that case.
> 
> Bugging out is leaving your home in the face of ANY danger that could kill you with the supplies needed to survive if you can't go home (and hopefully a destination and pre-planned route). What you seem to be describing is being caught flat footed and running with your tail tucked between your legs, AKA being a refugee.


In your scenario AKA Fire. Even a huge one. 
Hopefully you have fire insurance, Good insurance will even put you up in a hotel till you can get temporary housing. Then they give you cash to rebuild. You hire a contractor and works gets underway. Yes you lost your keepsakes and family heirlooms. But you will get back to normal in a few short months to half a year.

In a SHTF you bugout to save your life. Hopefully to a preplanned bugout location. If your home is lost.. No one will know or care. Your world has changed forever.

Like I said we are discussing different things.

P.S. Don't think I don't agree that certain things can make you leave home but a hotel stay isn't SHTF.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

stanb999 said:


> Sandy is a nice example of what actually happens. Why don't people just leave?
> 
> Simply put it's resources and normalcy bias.


I think you just found your normalcy bias.



stanb999 said:


> In your scenario AKA Fire. Even a huge one.
> Hopefully you have fire insurance, Good insurance will even put you up in a hotel till you can get temporary housing. Then they give you cash to rebuild. You hire a contractor and works gets underway. Yes you lost your keepsakes and family heirlooms. But you will get back to normal in a few short months to half a year.
> 
> In a SHTF you bugout to save your life. Hopefully to a preplanned bugout location. If your home is lost.. No one will know or care. Your world has changed forever.


Ah... here I think is a problem that goes back to your OP!!! You know what they say about ASSumptions.

If you need to leave your house because of ANYTHING that threatens your life and your home, you need to be ready to never be able to come back!

Wasn't it you stan who worried about getting caught by a secondary event that made a bad situation worse? What happens if you bug out to a hotel (like many did after Sandy) and then the situation gets worse or takes longer than it should to resolve, you run out of money, or (like they started to do in NY) they kick you out (due to reservations for the NY marathon)? What happens if the initial situation precipitates a secondary situation that turns into a long term SHTF? Or your fire insurance goes bankrupt because they insured many properties in an area that burns out?

As I said before, you want to bug out when the situation actually facing you threatens your life/home, and you want to bug out like its a "real", long term, bug out. If you have the resources SURE go to a hotel close by in a safe area, but whether its a hotel or a camp site by the side of the road, this is a PART of your bug out, which may land you at your BOL, or may just land you back in your house or short term housing.

As soon as you "step out" of your house you are in a VERY vulnerable position, the whole point of the idea of "Bugging Out," is that you prepare for this vulnerability. I mean situations that potentially could kill you and force you to prudently leave your home aren't all that common, but if there is a potential that you loose your house, wouldn't you want to save and have at least the basic preps needed to Bug out.


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## stanb999 (Nov 14, 2011)

Padre said:


> I think you just found your normalcy bias.
> 
> Ah... here I think is a problem that goes back to your OP!!! You know what they say about ASSumptions.
> 
> ...


I'm already living at my BOL... We can't get flooded. We don't have large forest fires. No major transportation routes within many miles. Almost no earthquake activity. We are up hill and Far from cities(few zombies). Neighbors are quite willing to defend themselves and our area. With force. We have meat on the hoof, berry on the bush, and currently keep a market garden. If the scenario above (Large fire) At the homestead and insurance wasn't available. I would rebuild the homestead myself. A lot of work to be sure.

My post was directed at people that live in cities and burbs that believe they will get out when the time comes. They won't. Basically what your saying is living in a location other than your BOL you must be fully prepared to leave your home at a moments notice every second of the day. A continuous hair trigger. Planning to never return. Your most likely right. I simply don't believe that people live that way. Your comparing simple everyday struggles with SHTF. Not me. Life is adversity. I suggested a hurricane could be a trigger event. Not SHTF. I asked those in the zone if they actually thought about getting out of dodge would be doable in the current situation, with the destruction and lack of resources. If the crisis intensified does their current bugout plan make practical sense? Would it work right now?



Padre said:


> As soon as you "step out" of your house you are in a VERY vulnerable position, the whole point of the idea of "Bugging Out," is that you prepare for this vulnerability. I mean situations that potentially could kill you and force you to prudently leave your home aren't all that common, but if there is a potential that you loose your house, wouldn't you want to save and have at least the basic preps needed to Bug out.


Why would your immediate need supplies be anywhere but on your person? I keep several days supplies in the car. It's my GHB. It of course would work in the opposite fashion.


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