# What do you think will be the trigger event and the signs of the event for the SHTF?



## haley4217

I've been prepearing for a little over a year now. The preps have included converting cash to tangible items like silver and bater items. We've also stocked up on food, water, ammo and medical supplies. My family believes that we need to be prepared for events that will affect our lives. This may be something as simple as a event of nature that disrupts our supply of water and/or electricity for days or a collapse of the economy of the US be it from inflation, over spending, rationing, hyperinflation, taxes, EMP, war or terrorism.

I believe we are reasonably prepared, but am trying to figure out when to make the last push of prepepping. We define this as the last trip to the store to get everything we can carry before stores have to ration items, limit purchases or just flat run out of things. So, I've been working over the last weeks to try and figure out what might be the signs that preceed an event that is the trigger causing the collapse that I expect. Much as you're watching the snow start to slip slowly off a roof and are watching for the signs that it's getting ready to give way and slide off quickly.

Here's my question to the group. Presuming that an economic collapse is already in the process in the US, while it may be slow or being proped up by the Government or the Fed so that the public doesn't easily percieve the collapse; What do you believe will be the tell tale signs that will preceed the final collapse? What do you believe that as a prepper we should be watching to tell us that we've run out of time to prep and that the failure of the economy is reaching momentum and will happen within the next few days or weeks.


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## OHprepper

for an economical problem, i am watching for a run on the banks. there is a bank on my way home from work, and when our power went out here for two weeks, there was a line a quarter of a mile long to get into the bank in my little town. people were fistfighting over gas at the stations. when that happened i started loading the truck. granted, it only lasted a few weeks, but 45 minutes after i noticed it, i was driving away. to be honest, there wasnt much difference in where i was and what was going on here. except i was off in the woods for two weeks camping and everyone else was camping in their houses. the only problem i encountered? it was hot as hell...beginning of july...and my dog(pitbull) is afraid of the sounds raccoons make. she woke me up every night trying to get in my sleeping bag with me.


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## hiwall

If they ever announce a bank holiday or say they have to close the banks due to a hacker attack(or any excuse they use). Grab your cash and head to the store.


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## Jaspar

You'll know it's officially here when people start seeing it as a "normal thing" to not have electricity or decent medical care. Maybe things like meat and milk will be either a luxury, or banned food source.


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## va22315

Some things are obvious, such as natural disasters. When the weather man says the hurricane is 3 days out, that's a pretty good time to head inland, etc.

As far as economic collapse (which I'll define as Great Depression-style economic conditions, others will have their own definitions), I don't know that it can be pegged to the day or week, but some indications that things are entering the 'red' zone would be:

1. Interest rates on U.S. debt trends back to normal, around 5% or so.
2. Electricity generation from 'renewables' surpasses 20% or so.
3. Public pension payouts to current retirees begin being cut, either by elected officials or courts.
4. Any state files bankruptcy, or seeks to renegotiate their debt.
5. Industry-specific strikes begin to occur in transportation, energy, communications, or public-safety sectors.
6. Any legislation is introduced anywhere that would establish rationing, or create a mechanism for establishing rationing, in the food or energy sectors.
7. Any form of capital controls that limit outflows of currency from the U.S.

These are just a few off the top of my head, but I'd say if/when any of these pop up on your radar, it's time to be making final preparations because things are going to get real hairy in the next few years (FWIW, I'm generally of the opinion that a Great Depression-style economic collapse is anywhere from 8-12 years off, I know others think it will be sooner).


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## swjohnsey

Zombie attack.


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## Marcus

va22315 said:


> 2. Electricity generation from 'renewables' surpasses 20% or so.


Funny you should mention that since I heard a report on the radio that Texas generated 28% of its electricity from renewables last month. It had more to do with last month being very windy though.

What I'd look for is increasing gas prices that just continue to rise with somewhat of a disconnect to world commodity prices. Right now here in Texas, gas prices have risen over 10% ($3.15 to $3.55) in the last month or so. Should the price break $4, I'll know something is up especially considering that PM prices are currently falling in the short term. It may just be more environmental regs taking effect, but I haven't heard of any new ones reported anywhere nor has the state raised the gas tax....yet.


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## BillM

The collapse of the U S Dollar and the closeing of the banks.


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## Caribou

To use your example, I think the snow has slid a bit already and there is a crust curling over the eve. Like your snow on the roof example it is quite possible that everything will dump at once. Most people are just standing under the eve and wouldn't recognize the threat even if they did look up. 

If a bank holiday is part of the scenario then you had better have some cash. I figure that cash will continue to have value, at least for a bit.


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## cqp33

va22315 said:


> Some things are obvious, such as natural disasters. When the weather man says the hurricane is 3 days out, that's a pretty good time to head inland, etc.
> 
> As far as economic collapse (which I'll define as Great Depression-style economic conditions, others will have their own definitions), I don't know that it can be pegged to the day or week, but some indications that things are entering the 'red' zone would be:
> 
> 1. Interest rates on U.S. debt trends back to normal, around 5% or so.
> 2. Electricity generation from 'renewables' surpasses 20% or so.
> 3. Public pension payouts to current retirees begin being cut, either by elected officials or courts.
> 4. Any state files bankruptcy, or seeks to renegotiate their debt.
> 5. Industry-specific strikes begin to occur in transportation, energy, communications, or public-safety sectors.
> 6. Any legislation is introduced anywhere that would establish rationing, or create a mechanism for establishing rationing, in the food or energy sectors.
> 7. Any form of capital controls that limit outflows of currency from the U.S.
> 
> These are just a few off the top of my head, but I'd say if/when any of these pop up on your radar, it's time to be making final preparations because things are going to get real hairy in the next few years (FWIW, I'm generally of the opinion that a Great Depression-style economic collapse is anywhere from 8-12 years off, I know others think it will be sooner).


I agree with you that it may be further off than most think because a lot say in the next 6-12 months! I am more in the 2-6 year range, sequestration may be the start of it all which I believe will bring unemployment (the way it is measured by the DC folks today) back towards 10%, wouldn't be surprised if they figure a new way to calculate it though! This will create another run on consumer credit for those that can get it meaning that people without jobs will start living off of available credit, which will only create more problems down the road. I think if you could know when to make that "last trip" you would have a crystal ball that actually worked! I think we are at the beginning of slow slide and as it progresses things will pick up pace! 
One of the things I will be watching for is the ways that the FED will get creative to make things "appear" to be OK! When the cat is out of the bag on the FED I think that is when it will all fall down like a house of cards in a tornado! Gas prices are going to add to inflation affects at the home level, meaning increases in food and any other product! This may increase the pace a little bit too!
My $0.02


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## camo2460

I think that all of the suggestions and opinions are all things to look for, however rather than looking for a particular "thing" to happen, just be prepared for anything and have as much food, water, equipment, medical supplies etc. on hand, and when something weird happens your set. camo 2460


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## act5860

camo2460 said:


> I think that all of the suggestions and opinions are all things to look for, however rather than looking for a particular "thing" to happen, just be prepared for anything and have as much food, water, equipment, medical supplies etc. on hand, and when something weird happens your set. camo 2460


I agree with Camo. If you're waiting to make final run to the stores then you're not prepared, you're almost prepared. A lot of lives could be lost because people were almost prepared. When you're almost prepared and waiting to make that final run to the store, that means you're out there making that final run with all the people who did nothing to prepare. Very dangerous situation. Keep in mind the likelyhood that some not so nice folks just might follow someone who appeared to know what their doing home from the store.

Just my 2¢


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## RevWC

Marcus said:


> Funny you should mention that since I heard a report on the radio that Texas generated 28% of its electricity from renewables last month. It had more to do with last month being very windy though.
> 
> What I'd look for is increasing gas prices that just continue to rise with somewhat of a disconnect to world commodity prices. Right now here in Texas, gas prices have risen over 10% ($3.15 to $3.55) in the last month or so. Should the price break $4, I'll know something is up especially considering that PM prices are currently falling in the short term. It may just be more environmental regs taking effect, but I haven't heard of any new ones reported anywhere nor has the state raised the gas tax....yet.


My prediction when Obama was re-elected was gas would be at $8.00 per gallon by the end of his 2nd term. I have changed that prediction to $8.00 per gallon by end of this summer.. :eyebulge:


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## Country Living

Around here it's not so much the event as people's reactions to real or perceived threats. Go to the post office and make an off-hand comment about a bread or milk shortage and I guarantee you there will be a run on bread and milk. Remember when Johnny Carson made the statement about the shortage of toilet paper? The FCC was not amused. 

The easiest and earliest way to get the pulse on what's going on in our rural community is to be at Brookshire's or the local donut shop early in the morning and hear the things they think are important. 

I watch the Fed's statements on economic policies. I'm watching with interest North Korea and knowing at any point in time they can team up with some terrorist group and use a freighter to cause an EMP in the Houston shipyard. 

I'm not sure, with the exception of the EMP, we will have a sudden cataclysmic event. I think we would easily have a two to three hour window to quickly do anything that still needs to be done before people started reacting. IMHO.


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## invision

act5860 said:


> I agree with Camo. If you're waiting to make final run to the stores then you're not prepared, you're almost prepared. A lot of lives could be lost because people were almost prepared. When you're almost prepared and waiting to make that final run to the store, that means you're out there making that final run with all the people who did nothing to prepare. Very dangerous situation. Keep in mind the likelyhood that some not so nice folks just might follow someone who appeared to know what their doing home from the store.
> 
> Just my 2¢


Concur with this line of thought..

No one can be 100% totally prepared... I have kept up my steady pace each month... The last 3 have been more concentrated on ammo, and PMs... Now I am switching back to more food with ammo and PMs in 2nd...


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## Hooch

In my opinion it's been happening in slow motion but at some point it will hit the fan in a big dump..maybe oscilate a bit up n down but...it's been a good time to grow towards a simple sustainable lifestyle n be prepared no matter. 

Some interesting interviews recently on King World News ...check it out...

...also..
For more insite to the level of decline n perhaps what to keep on the radar, there are some other folks that gave interesting interviews on: Greg Hunter USA watchdog.com look for John Williams, Catherine Austin-Fitts, Karl D. (last name spell?) 

I also like keeping tabs on Greg Mannerino insite, and Charlie Mcgath host n founder of Wide Awake News

Very recently...I've seen fuel prices jump here almost daily for awhile now...locally in my neck of the woods gas is $4.29/ gallon for the cheaper end. In Southern Cali it is 5.19 for the cheap end. 
As we all know it will effect all prices of stuff...n perhaps less trucks delivering goods due to high fuel prices..wont be just ammo that is short on the shelves
...go shopping for more preps if you can...


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## FrankW

One of the most realistic SHTF scnerios IMHO is pandemic. And for thise you will be bale to see tell tale signs.
whenever in some distant city the reported fatalties go into the double digits, that means they are really in triple digits and that meabs, get ready.


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## GrinnanBarrett

there are any number of things that could create a true SHTF experience. The most likely would be a World Wide crisis such as a Depression. this would most likely start in Europe or Asia with panic selling on unstable markets. With countries like Ecuador no longer concerned about debt and willing to flaunt it in their creditors face this could also be a major factor leading to an economic crisis. With countries like Greece falling over the edge as we speak (27 percent unemployment and money devalued) we are all on the brink. What we have right now is a world where no one wants to think a Depression could ever happen again. It will and there is no way to avoid it. The only question is when will it happen. 

A world war is another major consideration. If the Middle East blows up so does world oil production and with it comes economic crisis like you cannot imagine. Too many countries today have nuclear weapons and too many are willing to use them. Starving and cold people don't care about good intentions. 

A true climate shift where food production is destroyed by too much heat, cold, wet or dry will push us over the edge. Again hungry people have a whole new value system. 

A grid down scenario is not very likely unless it is man made. A total loss of the electric grid is something none of us really wants to even imagine. Currently we have less than a 20 percent reserve of components to fix the grid as it is. Privatizing the power companies and deregulation have had a dark side to them. No investor wants their money sitting on a lot as back up for a grid down. therefore, where you at one time had major reserve parts stocked by power companies you now have a minimum just to meet peak load times of the deep summer and winter. Brown outs are becoming more and more a part of everyday life. It will not take much to take down the grids of this country. I would look for the focus of an attack on the grid to be in the North East US. this would cripple the banking system and deny a quarter of the population of this country electric service. 

Like we all say there is no one here who can say when it will happen or how it will happen or who will start it but reality tells us that what we know now will not stand forever. I pray that I am wrong and hope that neither you nor your children will ever face the reality of SHTF. For one thing the population of the world is so large now the deaths associated with it will be unimaginable. GB


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## Marcus

For a lot of folks, the re-election of our current Dear Leader In Chief was the trigger event. Hence the gun and ammo shortages as the befuddled masses attempted to play catch up and the wolves took advantage of them.


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## va22315

I'm reminded of the Hemingway quote on how he went bankrupt: "Slowly, then all at once." That does seem to be the direction we're headed as a country.


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## Indiana_Jones

Marcus said:


> For a lot of folks, the re-election of our current Dear Leader In Chief was the trigger event. Hence the gun and ammo shortages as the befuddled masses attempted to play catch up and the wolves took advantage of them.


Great post Marcus. The a$$hole-in-chief has many more evil tricks up his sleeve. And our representatives and senators are either too stupid or too scared (or both) to step out and do what is needed to throttle the bass-turd in the oval office. And even more importantly, the citizens of the USA are not strong enough to do what is necessary either.


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## Tweto

Indiana_Jones said:


> Great post Marcus. The a$$hole-in-chief has many more evil tricks up his sleeve. And our representatives and senators are either too stupid or too scared (or both) to step out and do what is needed to throttle the bass-turd in the oval office. And even more importantly, the citizens of the USA are not strong enough to do what is necessary either.


Just about every problem that could turn into a SHTF scenario BO is behind. But BO also had in his power and still can stop most of the countries ills but has decided to play golf and give endless political speeches.

It looks more and more like BO's agenda is to ruin this county. Mission accomplished!


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## haley4217

act5860 said:


> If you're waiting to make final run to the stores then you're not prepared, you're almost prepared. A lot of lives could be lost because people were almost prepared. When you're almost prepared and waiting to make that final run to the store, that means you're out there making that final run with all the people who did nothing to prepare. Very dangerous situation. Keep in mind the likelyhood that some not so nice folks just might follow someone who appeared to know what their doing home from the store.
> 
> Just my 2¢


You bring up a very good point. While I believe we are prepared for many situations, be it natural or governmental induced, my original plan was to take the on-hand cash and make a final run to the store for some last minutes barter items and some luxuries that aren't part of our preps. We live in a very rural area where given a chance I could go to the local mom & pop grocery or the closest confidence store and buy a couple of cases of beer, their supply of jerky, batteries and such. My thought was that in a financial collapse the dollars in hand would be worthless soon and only useful for starting fires in the fireplace.

But, I hadn't given consideration that some people would see this as an indication of my preparedness. I've taken great efforts to keep preps concealed from everyone around me. The final trip to stock up on things that aren't really needed might undo all of my efforts to protect our preps.


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## haley4217

OHprepper said:


> for an economical problem, i am watching for a run on the banks. there is a bank on my way home from work, and when our power went out here for two weeks, there was a line a quarter of a mile long to get into the bank in my little town. people were fistfighting over gas at the stations. when that happened i started loading the truck. granted, it only lasted a few weeks, but 45 minutes after i noticed it, i was driving away. to be honest, there wasnt much difference in where i was and what was going on here. except i was off in the woods for two weeks camping and everyone else was camping in their houses. the only problem i encountered? it was hot as hell...beginning of july...and my dog(pitbull) is afraid of the sounds raccoons make. she woke me up every night trying to get in my sleeping bag with me.


The banking issue is one that I am trying to watch. The problem is believing the data that comes from Washington, is it correct; is it intentionally misleading; is it representative of the true financial condition of the US? Look at the CPI and Inflation figures that the Government puts out and you come away shaking your head with their determination of little or no inflation. That sounds good and makes some people feel good, even though this is price inflation calculations not not money inflation. With the Fed pumping 85 Billion into the economy each month, where is the money? It's not, luckily, in circulation. In the third quarter of 2012 the flow of funds from US banks was negative with withdrawals exceeding deposits by billions of dollars. And finally, China, India, Russia and Japan are buying fiscal gold at record levels and China is expected to resume their buying spree this week as the return from New Year, and with all of this Gold has reached record lows and the longest slump in a year.

Are we in the midst of bank collapses that is concealed by "massaged" financial data with the Dollar value being supported only by printing by the Fed? Is this inflated dollars strength intended to keep precious metal prices low to provide buying opportunities?


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## Attila

When the welfare checks stop flowing. That is when the SHTF in a major way. It'll suck to live near a large metropolitan area with a high number of parasites. Make sure you have plenty of fire power.


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## mojo4

Attila said:


> When the welfare checks stop flowing. That is when the SHTF in a major way. It'll suck to live near a large metropolitan area with a high number of parasites. Make sure you have plenty of fire power.


Not to quibble but the checks will never stop. Unfortunately congress has the right to print money. Too bad they had no requirement to make sure the money made has value. Money will always be there. The purchasing power will drop but it will be there. My personal sign?? When gas tops 7 bucks a gallon.


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## invision

mojo4 said:


> Not to quibble but the checks will never stop. Unfortunately congress has the right to print money. Too bad they had no requirement to make sure the money made has value. Money will always be there. The purchasing power will drop but it will be there. My personal sign?? When gas tops 7 bucks a gallon.


Your right on the checks... But when the same checks continually each month to buy less and less and those on entitlements start to realize that and start demanding more, it will become a vicious cycle... $7 a gallon is what a year or two off without the pipeline opened up?


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## partdeux

I'm voting for a Black Swan event as the trigger.


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## mojo4

invision said:


> Your right on the checks... But when the same checks continually each month to buy less and less and those on entitlements start to realize that and start demanding tmore, it will become a vicious cycle... $7 a gallon is what a year or two off without the pipeline opened up?


The reason I say 7 bucks is that will price out a large section of the population and take away their mobility. Then they will in turn began to riot and clamor. The additional price in everything else because of high fuel costs will reduce food availability and then its all over but the crying. Wall street means almost nothing to 98% of people (myself included) but fuel prices will kill almost everyone instantly.


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## DJgang

When people can't afford electricity to watch ESPN and keep their beer cold.


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## Tacitus

I made two "panic lists:"

Non-EMP SHTF Panic List
EMP SHTF Panic List

Since then, I've made enough progress on my prepping that I've essentially eliminated the non-EMP SHTF Panic Buy list.

But EMP is such a world changing event, I don't think I will ever do away with that list. There will be a lot of stuff that I will need to survive over the next 1-2 years, and people will _eventually_ (shortly) figure out that they need that stuff, too.

If an EMP ever occurs without warning, then there will be a lot of people standing around, dazed and confused, doing nothing for a while, just waiting for the power to come back on.

That is my window.

I will be moving at a full run when that happens, to get as much done as I can before people start to panic.

Granted, I may "waste" that window trying to gather my family together from different points around the city, but if I can get supplies before everyone else panics, I will.


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## Tacitus

Also, lately I've been prepping for financial collapse, not EMP. I figure a financial collapse will mean more government, not less, so while there will be shortages and crime, and perhaps less freedom, I don't expect a total breakdown of government as there would be with an EMP.

An EMP takes a total commitment to prepare for, and I'm just not ready to do that. So I just chip away at EMP prepping as the fancy strikes me, one little bit at a time. Basically, I replaced my Friday night stroll through the liquor store with a weekly prepping. I used to spend a lot of money on alcohol. If prepping is a vice, I figure it is a better vice than alcohol.


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## The_Blob

BlueZ said:


> One of the most realistic SHTF scnerios IMHO is pandemic. And for thise you will be bale to see tell tale signs.
> whenever in some distant city the reported fatalties go into the double digits, that means they are really in triple digits and that means, get ready.


:hmmm: this year's flu vaccine is only NINE PERCENT effective in people over 40, seems interesting enough to look into :chilly:


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## Tacitus

BlueZ said:


> One of the most realistic SHTF scnerios IMHO is pandemic.


I used to discount the likelihood of that, but with the new reports of totally drug resistant superbugs, I am starting to move this up my list, perhaps as #2 behind financial collapse.

Thousands May Have Been Exposed To Deadly TB Epidemic Downtown [in Los Angeles]


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## machinist

*Slide to The "3rd World"*

Western civilization has supported its' constant growth for the past couple hundred years by exploiting the rich natural resources of the America's, and most notably the past century by exploiting oil. As those resources dwindle, we will be fighting over the remaining scraps. Rationing of those scraps is being done by money.

I am watching that dogfight for clues to a breaking point as 3 problematic vectors converge (with a hat tip to Chris Martenson), economics, energy, and environment. Martenson's writings make clear that these 3 factors are on a collision course to reduce our standard of living dramatically in the best case, and could really trash our civilization in the worst case scenarios. Each factor affects all others, and can snowball.

What I think is a likely scenario is the convergence of the present currency wars (competitive devauations of currencies) with crop failures due to ongoing droughts, and upward pressure on energy prices from several directions.

As the Western world runs out of credit to support our too-lavish lifestyles, we will discover what little remains of our real wealth. I don't know how long it will take to reach that lower level of sustainable living, where we have to live on our "incomes" of real resources and productivity. But we can be sure that level is far below the present level of consumption, and that we are now on the way to finding it.

A "Black Swan" event in energy, economics, or environment could hasten our way to that 3rd world existence. I think the most likely is the fiat currency system coming apart at the seams. Rebuilding a new monetary system could take a while, and will be limited on the upside by a lack of cheap energy to fuel the growth needed to support an ever-increasing population. Something has to give, and it will undoubtedly be our level of consumption. The poorest in the world won't get enough to live on, and lives will be lost.

With the profusion of lies promulgated by those who have big dogs in this fight, we the people may not know what has happened, exactly, until long after the fact. But we will surely FEEL the results. One does not have to understand electrons to know what to expect when we flip a light switch. Likewise, as our purchasing power is being greatly eroded each day, we can know that the above forces are in play, and that we won't like the outcome.

Massive systems have massive inertia, so the world economic system may stumble along mortally wounded for a long time before it falls over dead. I have seen enough signs already to tell me that preparations are in order. Taking a long time for the system to fail, does not mean it is not going to fail. We just need to read the signals for what they are and arrange our lives accordingly.

There may not be any single "Hollywood Drama Moment", that is the cusp of TSHTF. Those things make exciting movies, when you have to cram the plot into 90 minutes or so. The real world is not that way, so get over that idea. Instead, recognize what is really going on, and get busy on your preps. The big problems began a long time ago, and we are all playing catch-up now.


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## machinist

*Re: Emp*

Could happen. We are approaching a solar cycle peak this year, IIRC, but my personal belief is that we are more likely to face a currency devaluation that makes our electric bill look outrageously high. I would like to assure that I can continue to have lights and refrigeration for the foreseeable future, whether grid electric is available, or not, or gets too expensive for me. That motivates me to have alternatives.


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## BillS

haley4217 said:


> With the Fed pumping 85 Billion into the economy each month, where is the money? It's not, luckily, in circulation.


I think the money IS in circulation. Or at least most of it is. The Federal government runs trillion dollar deficits that are funded by money creation. That's why gasoline prices are approaching all time highs for this time of year. And another reason why food prices are so high.


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## BillS

The banking crisis in Europe isn't in the news much anymore but it's still a disaster waiting to happen. We know that the Fed has made secret loans in the past to foreign banks. There could be a European banking crisis that causes the Fed to create whatever money is necessary to fix the problem. That could be $1 trillion or $5 trillion or $10 trillion. That could cause an immediate drop in the value of the dollar.

The Fed is creating $85 billion a month in new dollars. It's only a matter of time before foreign investors realize that the US government has no intent to cut spending to sustainable levels. That could happen in just a couple of months when the current debt agreement expires. We could see panic selling of the dollar by then.

Sometime in the future the government will devalue the currency or call a bank holiday. Watch out for denials that the government is about to devalue the dollar. They always deny they're about to do it right before they do.

North Korea has nuclear weapons now. Iran is working on them. Neither has ICBMs as we know them but they have short range or medium range missiles. We could see a nuclear attack on the US fired from a container ship flying the flag of a neutral country. Such an attack would collapse the stock market and probably collapse the economy too.

There could be a false flag terrorist attack blamed on Tea Party people as an excuse for martial law.

If there's war with Iran and China gets involved, they could dump their dollars and our debt all at once, we could wake up one morning to find the dollar has lost 90% of its value.

All the money printing will someday lead to hyperinflation like Germany had in the 1920s. The only thing that seems to be preventing it is the fact that the velocity of the dollar continues to drop as the economy slows down.

So to make a short story long, I don't know what will start it but I expect a sudden collapse in the value of the dollar will be the catalyst for the coming economic collapse. The collapse could happen in a matter of just a few days or possibly even in one 24 day.


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## hiwall

It is interesting how Washington is fighting over the sequestration cuts of $85 billion and that is exactly how much new money the Fed is "printing" each month.


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## machinist

As the financial forums say these days, Washington is all "Kabuki Theater"--heavily stylized song and dance drama with no relationship to reality. This has all been scripted ahead of time, and the moves carefully choreographed to produce the best sound bites and photo ops. 

"Man struts and frets his hour upon the stage, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Some Englishman said that.... 

Sorry, the noises from DC have nothing to do with how things REALLY are. 

Behind the scenes, you can bet that Bendover Bernanke and all his henchmen are experiencing maximum pucker-factor about now, wondering how long they can keep it together with band aids, bubble gum and baling wire. If they have their way, the bubbles they have blown in the past will be allowed to slowly deflate, while they pump fake money into them to keep it from collapsing TOO fast and causing a panic. As BillS said, somebody could panic anyway, and that will be that. I agree, that when a loss of confidence occurs, it will be dramatic, and happen fast. 

Until then, we get the stagflation, or whatever it is, a slow drain on our wealth by stealth, inflating away what we have to be drained into the pockets of banksters via the Fed's multiple lines of money creation. So, don't wait for some super-dramatic last minute sign to get your preps in order. GET BUSY NOW!


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## readytogo

I like your question, and the answers here are key to preparations, as a child I lived in a communist country, all our money was confiscated the minute we applied for an exit visa, my father and I supported our family by bartering and black marketeering, everyday was a risk taker, prison for sure. It was very common for police searches and inventory takers on the homes of those leaving the country, my father was a very smart individual, he had mason jars full of money embedded in cement blocks all over the place.
During America hard times many had money in mason jars not banks, banks fail and many lost everything to include their life's.
1=pay your bills.
2=save a small percentage at home.
3=learn food preservation,baking,soap making, anything useful.
4=buy what you/family will need/eat.
5=sell everything else that you don`t used anymore.
6=forget about your credit cards/ratings, is a bank gimmick.
7=learn to repair things, shop in second hand stores.
8=the secret to survival is knowledge and living within your reach.


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## Tacitus

machinist said:


> "Man struts and frets his hour upon the stage, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Some Englishman said that....
> ...
> So, don't wait for some super-dramatic last minute sign to get your preps in order. GET BUSY NOW!


"Fear not, til Birnam Wood, do come to Dunsinane"

That is our sign!

(But I think he was a Scotsman, not an Englishman...at least the character speaking was a Scotsman...the author was an Englishman. I guess my high school English teacher wasn't so bad after all. At the least, he loved that play.)


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## BillM

The banks will close and the credit cards won't work !


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## helicopter5472

Here is what I did to lesson the "are you hording food or prepping" Some of the supplies I get are from the local Sams Club, so I made up a business name. Most people don't think twice as many businesses are food related and with that business membership you can get in earlier than the main crowds. Not sure if that helps much, but there are a lot less people shopping when I go. I live 30 miles away, off the main drag so if someone was following me I will notice. Hope to rap up my supplies before the end of the year. People do notice I ordered a couple items from Emergency Essentials, when the driver brought the box to the door he asked if I was prepping and that he seen a few others in his route do the same. I told him I was getting stuff for a camping trip. So to me, he is the potential person who knows where you live and knows what type of supplies these shipping companies provide. That's what I want to avoid.


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## machinist

Our delivery guy is a friend of ours. He's into stuff like open pollinated seeds, and other similar stuff. He keeps his big mouth shut, too.


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## Grimm

I try to only order from companies that will ship discreetly. If I have to order from a company that will not I have the items shipped to various family members who then hold the items til I can pick up or repack and ship them to me.

That's why I love ebay and etsy- most sellers use recycled shipping materials so there is no telling whats in the box.

But as far as signs the end is near- you'll see smoke coming from densely populated areas within days(if not hours) of bank and government facility closures. Look at the L.A. riots from the early 90s. Not about bank closures but an example of how fast things can happen in an urban area.


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## stayingthegame

received a package yesterday and the delivery guys commented on how heavy such a small box was. just said yes, i know. 
if you listen to the media anything they or the government are worried about are the last things I would look at. they are trying to divert attention from the real problems. the prez wanting to say that Islam terrorist are no longer a worry means there is something that they see in the works that they don't want us to know. think about slight of hand. when someone doesn't want you to see what he is doing, the magic man (big bother) will distract us with lesser things to worry about.


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## Grimm

stayingthegame said:


> received a package yesterday and the delivery guys commented on how heavy such a small box was. just said yes, i know.
> if you listen to the media anything they or the government are worried about are the last things I would look at. they are trying to divert attention from the real problems. the prez wanting to say that Islam terrorist are no longer a worry means there is something that they see in the works that they don't want us to know. think about slight of hand. when someone doesn't want you to see what he is doing, the magic man (big bother) will distract us with lesser things to worry about.


That's a good point about slight of hand. I think the signs would be in everyday life and the people we encounter. And like you said not on the news.

Got my order of soap in bulk delivered yesterday. The mail man smiled, winked, when he handed me the box and commented that it smelt good. He lives up here too so I am sure he has some stores- maybe not prepping but when you live so far from a town or shopping hub you want extras so you don't waste gas.


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## machinist

Signs I watch for:

-Zerohedge site is full of panicky posts about some banking or political crisis.
-SHTFPLAN site has more than the usual panic posts. 
-tickerforum.org has their "TickerCon" indicator at "1". (It's at 2 right now, and counting down from 5 to collapse of monetary system.)

More immediate signs would be:

-The POTUS on TV saying not to panic, everything is fine.
-Radio reports of riots in the nearest large cities, right before they call out the National Guard. 
-We have no internet service, and rebooting the router doesn't help.
-The traffic pattern changes on our road, with more traffic going TOWARD town to shop during middle of the day. 
-Somebody interrupts my garden work when he stops by to tell me that credit cards don't work, gas stations only take cash, and most businesses are closed due to computers being down. He just came from the only open grocery and it was jam-packed with people filling their carts. 
-No mail delivery.
-Cell phone service is down. 
-Landline phones are down.

No, we DO NOT go to town to fight the crowds over the last of the groceries. We get busy with 3 pressure canners on 2 stoves canning up everything in the freezer. Put chains and padlocks on the gates, fire up the electric fences, and turn the dogs out. Continue working the garden, or splitting wood according to the season.


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## kappydell

I think it is already happening, just in slow motion so we don't notice it. Why, you say?
1. Banks now have the 'right' to not allow you to withdraw your CASH for a certain length of time - my bank says 7 business days (that can be up to nine days). It isn't because they are verifying anything, because that includes CASH deposits.
2. Electronic banking only allows a set amount of money to be withdrawn at a time. Again, with my bank it is $300 a day; using the 'credit' electronic feature it is $500 a day. Heck, I can spend more than that on groceries for a month! During the bank problems of the 'great depression' you were only allowed to withdraw so much at a time...looks like the same-old, same-old to me.
3. The government's 'cooking the books' to change the economic outlook is becoming more and more obvious - all you have to do is look around your own neighborhood (or check 'shadowstats') to see things are NOT getting better. When something can't be fixed, it is easier to just change the rules to allow things to look better.
4. The financial markets' volatility vs stability. 
5. Increasing supply problems in the stores - things are 'out of stock' more and more, and nobody knows when more is coming in, because 'we just take what THEY send us'. And THEY are getting their stuff from other countries, and delivery is more and more tenuous. Ammo, printer ink, hand tools, and work gloves are things that seem to have disappeared around my area...I'm sure there are more.
6. The negativity shown to those who want to be less dependent on the largesse of government, due to the massive 'strings' attached to their 'gifts'. There is a near hysterical reaction in some circles to those who recommend thrift, hard work, and self-sufficiency (like preppers...). 
7. The increasing media ownership by fewer and fewer people effectively cutting off independent news sources. Just who decides "legitimacy" of news reporting, anyway? The newly apparent efforts to spy on media employees to ensure compliance with the 'party line' (whatever that is...)
8. Increasing unemployment, food stamps, and general poverty and the idea that there is such a thing as a downsized 'new normal'. Sounds like someone trying to quell the disquiet over worsening conditions, no? Shades of 'Prosperity is just around the corner!' (a favorite saying of govt officials in the early 1930s, just before the great depression got worse...)
9. The politicians nearly comical efforts at finger-pointing and blaming the other guys/party/side to divert blame from themselves for not doing anything at all to make things better. Sequestration being used as a big club to 'punish' people for not wanting their taxes raised...again....and the obvious efforts at playing up bad things to create an 'emergency' atmosphere, the better to promote 'solutions' which otherwise would be unacceptable to the public. Come on now...how dumb do they think we are?
10. Spiraling upward prices of essentials for daily living - gas, electricity, food, water, etc, together with the total disappearance of quality items made in the US, replaced with shoddily made, poor quality imports with higher price tags. And if you ask, well, 'they don't make those anymore'.

All the while, of course, while we are being told 'the recession is over' (Oh, really? Not in my neighborhood, Jack. Or anyone elses' I know of. Where are you seeing that?) Am I a cynic? Probably. But look around. I learned long ago as a rookie cop, to not listen to what people said so much as look at what they did, and the physical evidence to piece together what was really going on in a given situation. I use that for discerning what I believe to be the bits of truth behind all the smoke and mirrors. 

Quite frankly, the picture looks like what ferFal and other bloggers from collapsed economic countries describe as happening when their countries' ecomonies collapsed. I think we will next have an inflationary recession. Devaluation of money comes next. (Quantitative 'easing' anyone?) Only in the US nobody will admit anything is less than rosy. Yepper, I think we are already seeing the SHTF, just at lower velocity so as to keep it on the QT to prevent panic. (No, I do not panic...I just dig in and prep harder.)


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## machinist

kappydell hit it on the head. :congrat:

It's a slow motion train wreck, now ongoing. What most people seem to be looking for is some big dramatic MOMENT when things change drastically for the worse. Might happen, and is very likely in the financial system, IMHO. 

I think it is more likely we will stay on this slow slide to oblivion for as long as TPTB can PREVENT that panic moment. It gives people time to adjust their thinking and their lives, which is a good thing. The bad part is, the longer we put off a financial reset, the worse it will be.


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## BillS

machinist said:


> kappydell hit it on the head. :congrat:
> 
> It's a slow motion train wreck, now ongoing. What most people seem to be looking for is some big dramatic MOMENT when things change drastically for the worse. Might happen, and is very likely in the financial system, IMHO.
> 
> I think it is more likely we will stay on this slow slide to oblivion for as long as TPTB can PREVENT that panic moment. It gives people time to adjust their thinking and their lives, which is a good thing. The bad part is, the longer we put off a financial reset, the worse it will be.


You could be right.

It's also possible that TPTB will get as prepared as they want to be for the collapse of the dollar. When that happens they could trigger the collapse very quickly. They could do that by announcing an end to QE. The treasury would have to raise interest rates. The government wouldn't be able to borrow enough money to continue current spending. They could stop funding food stamp cards and the chaos would begin.

I think for now they're not done suppressing the gold and silver price. I think before they collapse everything they want to buy as much gold and silver as possible at artificially low rates. The shills on the investment shows could tell people to sell their silver and gold before the prices totally collapse.

It's also come out that the Fed has lent over a trillion dollars to foreign banks. That means we'll probably not see a european banking collapse anytime soon. The dollar might collapse first.

Now, we're seeing the Japanese stock and bond markets in serious trouble. I don't know if those problems will spread to Europe or if the money fleeing Japan will prop up the European stock and bond markets.


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## Tacitus

There are some things which indicate that the risk of any financial collapse could be delayed, like the oil reserves that are now becoming available, which some reports indicate could be enough for the US to become a net exporter of oil in the next 10 years.

Then again, our leaders will likely just use that opportunity to increase entitlements and defense spending, or allow those corporations to have their profits taxed in Ireland...rather than use the opportunity to pay down the debt.


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## mdrnhomesteaders

Well honestly I think the ball is already in motion with an economic collapse. The Chinese already own so much of our debt, the price of food is sky rocketing, and the banks are back to doing whatever they want as far as loans go. So honestly I for see an economic collapse within the next year or so.


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## FrankW

Tacitus said:


> There are some things which indicate that the risk of any financial collapse could be delayed, like the oil reserves that are now becoming available, which some reports indicate could be enough for the US to become a net exporter of oil in the next 10 years.
> .


Oil is the life blood of society.
I agree that we have pushed peak oil out at least 10 years maybe more.
Its almost a shame.. I would have preferred there to be a peak oil crisis.

This would have caused an extreme depression that might have cleansed our country and THEN when the new attitudes and political will to have our county survive be in place THEN we solve it.

Alas the alternative oil boon may only serve to keep voters fat and happy for years longer and so be an enabler for going the wrong direction as a country.


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## hiwall

The trigger event could be falsely inflated stock markets.....oh we have that now!
OK how about.......
The trigger event could be falsely inflated stock markets that go bust.


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## haley4217

I really appreciate all of the input that the group has made to this thread. I spend the first and last part of my day, every day, reading and searching the news and internet to try and look for the indicator that the "slide" is accelerating. I think that the consensus is that the SHTF event is economic centered and that the event has already taken place and we are in the slide to edge of the cliff. The only thing that I'm taking away from this discussion, and others, is that the timing of reaching the cliff ranges anywhere from a month to several years.

It's interesting to read that some members feel that the oil reserves and shale oil in North America could avert or extend the economic slide over the edge. I agree that it does give a big injection into the economy but at what cost. I live in an area that is experiencing a growth due to increased oil production. The unemployment numbers are good, the economy is growing but so are the negative factors. The growth is driving up the demand for all resources (food, housing, clothing, health care) and while the oil industry and supporting industries are growing the remaining are not, at least not to the level of the oil industry growth. The other side of the coin, having lived through a oil bubble bust, is that all of this new found growth and wealth is not being directed to any sustainable economy. The people who are gaining from the growth in higher paying jobs and increased income are spending the money on new cars, bigger more expensive houses and living on the edge and beyond their means. All it takes is just a little wobble and the market gets hit with repossessed cars or houses going on the market because the owners are moving to follow the work.

Finally, can America with a growth in oil and oil shale ever overcome the debt that has been piling up along with the billions, if not trillions, of dollars that have been injected into the world economy without something to back it up here at home. Could not a financial collapse still occur, even with a sector of the US Economy being strong, if TPTB have to reverse course on their financial plan to try and stave off hyperinflation? If suddenly all of the USD$ start moving in the system and the Fed stops QE and increases interest rates to encourage saving instead of spending what direction does this send our economy spinning off too?


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## haley4217

Sorry, Double Post


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## readytogo

Tacitus said:


> There are some things which indicate that the risk of any financial collapse could be delayed, like the oil reserves that are now becoming available, which some reports indicate could be enough for the US to become a net exporter of oil in the next 10 years.
> 
> Then again, our leaders will likely just use that opportunity to increase entitlements and defense spending, or allow those corporations to have their profits taxed in Ireland...rather than use the opportunity to pay down the debt.


*Then again, our leaders will likely just use that opportunity to increase entitlements and defense spending, or allow those corporations to have their profits taxed in Ireland...rather than use the opportunity to pay down the debt.*
You are so right, as long as the gov keeps giving money to Big Corp,we will continue to have problems, politicians invest in the war machine and generals love their wars and we keep fighting each other over which party is best, and they know it, we keep buying Chinese Fruit the Looms and they keep spying on Us,oh well we all know this one.* A house divided will not Stand .*


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## cqp33

As long as QE continues, the market will rise! It will all come crashing down though, when is the big question! So when will TSHTF???? If I had that answer I would be making money through a crystal ball! A slow slope down and the big question is where on the way down is the cliff? Once that cliff is hit things will "go south" quickly! I predict 2-5 years until total chaos in America! Might be sooner, might be later!


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## Tribal Warlord Thug

machinist said:


> Signs I watch for:
> 
> -Zerohedge site is full of panicky posts about some banking or political crisis.
> -SHTFPLAN site has more than the usual panic posts.
> -tickerforum.org has their "TickerCon" indicator at "1". (It's at 2 right now, and counting down from 5 to collapse of monetary system.)
> 
> More immediate signs would be:
> 
> -The POTUS on TV saying not to panic, everything is fine.
> -Radio reports of riots in the nearest large cities, right before they call out the National Guard.
> -We have no internet service, and rebooting the router doesn't help.
> -The traffic pattern changes on our road, with more traffic going TOWARD town to shop during middle of the day.
> -Somebody interrupts my garden work when he stops by to tell me that credit cards don't work, gas stations only take cash, and most businesses are closed due to computers being down. He just came from the only open grocery and it was jam-packed with people filling their carts.
> -No mail delivery.
> -Cell phone service is down.
> -Landline phones are down.
> 
> No, we DO NOT go to town to fight the crowds over the last of the groceries. We get busy with 3 pressure canners on 2 stoves canning up everything in the freezer. Put chains and padlocks on the gates, fire up the electric fences, and turn the dogs out. Continue working the garden, or splitting wood according to the season.


right on the money machinist...................
you sound like ya'll could be one of my neighbors:2thumb:......us hillbillies will always survive no matter what the rest of the world does to itself.........survivin' is just a way of life....we know we'll git on about taken care of the homestead and each otherz 'round herez........now i'm goin' to take the pontoon out and go fishin'.....................


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## LincTex

machinist said:


> No, we DO NOT go to town to fight the crowds over the last of the groceries. We get busy with 3 pressure canners on 2 stoves canning up everything in the freezer. Put chains and padlocks on the gates, fire up the electric fences, and turn the dogs out. Continue working the garden, or splitting wood according to the season.


I would add .... a sidearm and holster while working the garden, unless you are already doing so. Shotgun and rifle at the ready inside the door.


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## Tweto

cqp33 said:


> As long as QE continues, the market will rise! It will all come crashing down though, when is the big question! So when will TSHTF???? If I had that answer I would be making money through a crystal ball! A slow slope down and the big question is where on the way down is the cliff? Once that cliff is hit things will "go south" quickly! I predict 2-5 years until total chaos in America! Might be sooner, might be later!


 Even if there appears to be a decrease or discontinuation of QE the markets will dump but 2 other things to watch are, fall of this year the markets could start a slow dump because of Obama care in Jan 2014 and the other is Bernanke retiring in first quarter of 2014. I think that Bernanke is holding the fed governors back from discontinuing the QE program and what a perfect time to stop QE is when a new chair is installed.


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## TheLazyL

_"What do you think will be the trigger event and the signs of the event for the SHTF?"_

When the South decides the Truse that halted the war of North Aggression is no longer valid.


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## rawhide2971

I have been lurking throughout this thread since joining and holding back comment as I gathered my thoughts and gleaned what others were voicing and must admit there are some very valid thoughts being thrown out that I had not considered. However given all that has been said I think that its all conjecture at this point. I don't think we can predict exactly what will be the trigger that will cause the collapse that we are all convinced will come about. Nor are I convinced that it is imminent, in fact I fear the world will continue to limp along from one event to another and band aids will be applied for a number of years and the world as we know it will die a slow death....but I could be wrong. That’s why we all are preparing because we just don't know. We all just have this feeling of foreboding… I do think we are on the verge of social collapse here in the US. Anyone with 3 brain cells has to be concerned with the number of grasshoppers on the government payroll, the number of “disabled” is astounding at the moment……so what happens when the money runs out? I really do believe that I don’t want to be living in or around any of the major population centers in the country…take your pick. It’s going to be a kill zone and its going to be ugly when it happens. The grasshoppers will either be of two types, the swarmers, those that leave the population centers and go out to overwhelm and take from the Ants (us) and the Squatters (those that choose to sit in their own filth) and wait for the Gooberment to come and help them…..they will die in place and will not even make good fertilizer. Of course they will riot and burn the cities so that won’t be an all bad thing I guess if you’re a cynic. After about 5 years the Ants will come out and take over the wreck of the country assuming the Chinese have not moved in and taken over. What to watch for, when the money starts running out…next midterm election is when I am betting things will be interesting, notice all the news is trying to tell us how much better things are getting, how the housing markets are improving, how the unemployment numbers are improving, oh really, do you believe any of the numbers? Just my devalued .02 cents folks.


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## hiwall

Well written rawhide2971. I would pay good money for a functioning crystal ball.


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## helicopter5472

hiwall said:


> Well written rawhide2971. I would pay good money for a functioning crystal ball.


Me too...I would have the nicest BOL location east side of the Mississippi, Plus an overseas BOL. A Hooters down the street, Bionic parts installed throughout my body....stop it, wake up Evan, its only a dream :nuts:


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## Elinor0987

rawhide2971 said:


> Just my devalued .02 cents folks.


Make sure you don't leave that .02 cents in the bank, or tomorrow it could be .01 cent!


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## haley4217

*It's as plain as the southend of a northbound goat.*



rawhide2971 said:


> What to watch for, when the money starts running out&#8230;next midterm election is when I am betting things will be interesting, notice all the news is trying to tell us how much better things are getting, how the housing markets are improving, how the unemployment numbers are improving, oh really, do you believe any of the numbers? Just my devalued .02 cents folks.


First off, you make very good points about the slow slide and the analogy of the grasshoppers that make up society today. Something that I've been thinking about today, before reading your post, is why is it that the problems are as plain and easy for me to understand and see as "the south end of a northbound goat" but apparently not so for so many today. Could it be that I've over analyzed this to much and that the financial problems which appear to be so easily identified by me (and others) are not so? Why is it that almost 95% of the people in the small town that I live in don't see any problems in America? Even my brother and sister in law don't see or acknowledge any financial problems in the US. I talk to them about putting aside money to prepare for a financial problem and am quickly greeted with a very positive "the government will always have the money for our pensions, medical care and for the tuitions for our child to go to college. We've worked for it and earned it, they'll make sure we're taken care of." Anyway I digress, my concern is that:

1. I'm not over analyzing this and it's correct that the USD$ is headed for oblivion. It might be two weeks or two years and hopefully not two decades. And if so, why don't more people see this. I'm concerned about the lack of preparedness around me and the swarm of grasshoppers looking for something to eat.
2. The affect of the collapse is going to be much worse than the 95% of the people I know think it is. I don't think that this SHTF event is simply going to be an inconvenience with $7.00 per gallon gas, loss of value in the stock market, price inflation and some food shortages. I'm expecting what rawhide2971 talks about which ends up in thousands upon hundreds of thousands of people being killed or dead from hunger.
3. I don't have a crystal ball and like many others would like to have one to look at a timing of the event so I can make a determination of how rapidly I move through the various stages of preparedness. I'm prepared out to SHTF plus two years, but not out to where I'd like to be SHTF plus five.
4. And probably most importantly is that the end is closer than anyone expects. One of the signs that I'm seeing from a State and National level is that a lot of our "leaders", and I use that term loosely, are retiring at or before the mid-term elections. Do they know something that we don't and know that the black swan event is closer than most of us expect.

That folks is my concerns and for what it's worth; today's devalued .02 is .2590 in 1930 dollars.


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## Tacitus

haley4217 said:


> ...why is it that the problems are as plain and easy for me to understand and see as "the south end of a northbound goat" but apparently not so for so many today.


Wikipedia: Normalcy bias

The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.



haley4217 said:


> It might be two weeks or two years and hopefully not two decades.


The longer it takes, the more prepared I will be. I'm not looking to speed anything up. I'm a few years away from getting the land I need for a true SHTF.



haley4217 said:


> I'm prepared out to SHTF plus two years, but not out to where I'd like to be SHTF plus five.


Not me. I just started this about a year and a half ago. I may be at 6 months now...depending on how bad things get, and how many non-prepped family members show up at my door. Every day nothing happens is a good day, in my book.


----------



## haley4217

Tacitus said:


> Wikipedia: Normalcy bias
> 
> The normalcy bias, or normality bias, refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects. This often results in situations where people fail to adequately prepare for a disaster, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred then it never will occur. It also results in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.


Very Interesting! This was the topic of my evening deliberations. I'm wondering if this normality bias isn't the plan of the TPTB to progress the monetary change (collapse). I think about how this normality bias is rampant in the small town where I live and with many of the people that I know personally or have contact with through the day. As I discussed in my earlier post, many people that I'm aware of think all is well and everything will be ok.

If the government, the media and who knows who else progress a normality bias atmosphere in the US, then it would make the slide toward oblivion almost go un-noticed. Not by all but by some, which would explain why so many people in the US today sit back fat, dumb and happy while the economy is tanking. The thing that comes to my mind in support of a possible normality bias approach (some would call it a normality bias conspiracy) is the recent sequester issues. As such, the sequester is starting and all we here is that the airports are going to shut down, DHS will have to cut border patrol agents and the illegals will come streaming across the border, etc. etc. etc. and Oh whoa is me this cutting back is going to hurt the US and so on. Weeks pass sequester has happened and the world still continues. In fact, sequester is seldom mentioned today like it was a month ago. So, the sheep who drank the cool aid here how sequester is going to hurt and how bad things are then it turns out not to be that bad. It's going to be bad and then things don't happen..... it promotes a normality bias that Tacitus talks about. People begin to thing that nothing bad is going to happen, because it never does.

Second point... many of us don't now live in areas where we are affected by earthquakes, tornadoes or hurricanes so we've not lived through a disaster. We've only seen them on TV. How much does this affect normality bias and make it easier for a program of promoting normality bias when many of the population don't have an understanding of disaster other than that which is canned and presented to them by the media. I know that I have though about disasters such as fire, tornados, floods, etc. and my determination has simply been "I'm glad I don't live there so I don't have to deal with (fire, flood, tornado, hurricane, earthquake...)

That's my .2590 worth!


----------



## haley4217

machinist said:


> More immediate signs would be:
> 
> -The POTUS on TV saying not to panic, everything is fine.
> -Radio reports of riots in the nearest large cities, right before they call out the National Guard.
> -......credit cards don't work, gas stations only take cash, and most businesses are closed due to computers being down.
> -No mail delivery.
> -Cell phone service is down.
> -Landline phones are down.
> 
> No, we DO NOT go to town to fight the crowds over the last of the groceries. We get busy with 3 pressure canners on 2 stoves canning up everything in the freezer. Put chains and padlocks on the gates, fire up the electric fences, and turn the dogs out. Continue working the garden, or splitting wood according to the season.


When I posted the first message on this thread I talked about making the last run to the store and I don't think I explained my thoughts well. I'm not prepping with the plan of finishing out my preps on the day TSHTF, but instead was thinking towards the USD$ that I would likely have in hand on that fateful day that are getting ready to be worth less than monopoly money. As Machinist said above some of the signs include (see above). Well with the exception of POTUS and radio reports of riots, my area has been through the others several times.

What I expect to happen is that when the SHTF event occurs most of the people in my small rural town will go about life as normal for about two days, based on past experiences. They don't seem to get bent out of shape as long as they've got what's left of last Fridays paycheck to go to the gas station and buy some cigarettes and a six pack. They live from payday to payday (week to week) and if POTUS came on the news and said everything is fine don't worry... that's exactly what they will do.

SO.. By studying the people that live around me and planning what I was talking about at #1 was the SHTF event occurs I'm going to kick it into high gear and get a head start. We don't have Walmart or KMart or even a large grocery store, every thing is mom and pop small businesses and they are within 1/2 mile of my location. I drive down to the gas station and pump some gas and diesel and while I'm there I pickup a couple of cases of soda (we don't drink them but they'll be worth more in trade than the USD$ in my hand soon). I might buy a carton of cigarettes, again don't smoke but thinking about converting soon to be worthless cash into physical items that would retain value. Then down the street to the hardware store and pickup some motor oil or PVC fittings or batteries. Round the corner to the mom and pop market and buy a few cases of beer or canned goods.

My thought is that when the event occurs, in some locations, the rush to the stores or the riots won't start for somewhere between a few hours to a few days. In small amounts, so as to not attract to much attention, I pickup barter items that convert my USD$ to a physical item that hopefully retains value or gains value when the collapse gets into a full blown riot.

Like Machinist I would then get busy canning, working the garden and watching security. My premise was that I expect a period of opportunity for a few hours that I'm watching and planning for. If it doesn't happen I'm still prepped and I end up with some USD$ on hand that I can use as kindling to start a fire.


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## helicopter5472

I tend to agree that if and when it starts it will be the cities, I think people outside the cities will just watch and wait until they get the news that many cities are following suit. It could take days before most will take action and realize crap is really hitting the fan. Most rural folks have at least a weeks worth of food and probably will take little action at first. People today take that wait and see approach, and will find it hard to believe their world could change.


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## Norse

haley4217 said:


> Here's my question to the group. Presuming that an economic collapse is already in the process in the US, while it may be slow or being proped up by the Government or the Fed so that the public doesn't easily percieve the collapse; What do you believe will be the tell tale signs that will preceed the final collapse? What do you believe that as a prepper we should be watching to tell us that we've run out of time to prep and that the failure of the economy is reaching momentum and will happen within the next few days or weeks.


The Stock market will show signs of either massive gains and then a sudden epic event will crash the entire economy.

The thing is, the average stock holder cannot make instant sell like monied elites. The volatility of the economy is based on major sell offs and buys made instantly by massive conglomerates who trade in 'Real time". This can be witnessed by the recent astronomical volatility in the gas prices here in the United States.

Fact, it will HAPPEN WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. You should base your prep on the fact IT CAN HAPPEN IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.

Do you actually think the entity that controls such catastrophic events wants to give the general sheeple masses a warning or wake up call? Cause massive runs on banks, Grocery stores and the like?

NOPE. The beast is slippery, it will happen when you LEAST EXPECT IT.

BE READY ALWAYS.:eyebulge:


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## goshengirl

Norse said:


> The thing is, the average stock holder cannot make instant sell like monied elites.
> 
> Fact, it will HAPPEN WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. You should base your prep on the fact IT CAN HAPPEN IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.


I think about this a lot. I think about the little retirement fund my husband has worked so hard to put away in some stocks. And how we'll never see it. But he doesn't see things the way I do...


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## machinist

I am SOOO glad that wife and I are on the same page! But, we are both hard headed enough that if we did not think alike on such things, we wouldn't have stayed together until the coffee got hot. 

Yes, it could happen really quick. I check a few finance sites each morning, wondering if today will be the day it falls apart, starting with zerohedge.


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## LincTex

haley4217 said:


> My thought is that when the event occurs, in some locations, the rush to the stores or the riots won't start for somewhere between a few hours to a few days.... My premise was that I expect a period of opportunity for a few hours that I'm watching and planning for.


I am thinking "a few hours".

Once "the word gets out" there is a run on the banks, grocery store, etc. then panic will start to set in. It took a few hours on 9/11 to set in, so I expect about the same.


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## machinist

While 911 may be a good guide to the future regarding what went on in some major cities, our little burg had no reaction whatever, beyond watching raptly on TV. I think it would be very different for us if some symptoms of the problems hit us directly here. On 911, nobody here saw it as affecting US personally, although they were plenty pissed about it and wanted to hit back. 

If we see banks closing, CC not working, stores and gas stations unable to process a transaction, etc., then it would probably get crazy here, too. That would be a great time to STAY HOME. What you have on hand at that point is what you have, period.


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## swjohnsey

Has anyone taken a look at what happend in Brazil when they were experiencing runaway inflation. The currency was essentially worthless. Same thing in Wiemar Germany. They both recovered, Brazil without a war.


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## Magus

swjohnsey's underdrawers on a pole.


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## swjohnsey

Jokes on you. Rangers don't wear no underdrawers.


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## Dixie

*This thread came to mind when I took my mother to the bank a couple of days ago. Seems her bank is cutting back on their days open and hours. The thought crossed my mind ....why? It's one of the largest banks and they are known as being in "O's" back pocket, so why? Now I'm not Chicken Little and the sky is not falling, but I have to tell ya, I did see a small red flag waving.*


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## Magus

LOL NOW you impress me.
COMMANDO YO! Lets see if we can kill this thread? LOL

Know why commandos don't wear skivvies?

TRENCH ROT!
It'll turn your brown eyes blue yo!

Imagine the family jewels turning black and smelling like rotten meat......


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## swjohnsey

I don't look for bank closings but I do expect huge inflation.


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## swjohnsey

Magus said:


> LOL NOW you impress me.
> COMMANDO YO! Lets see if we can kill this thread? LOL
> 
> Know why commandos don't wear skivvies?
> 
> TRENCH ROT!
> It'll turn your brown eyes blue yo!
> 
> Imagine the family jewels turning black and smelling like rotten meat......


We called it crotch rot, same thing. Think of it as athelets foot of the nads.


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## Magus

Yup, yup.X25!
Fungus'll get ya!
anybody shave? no? you will.


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## Dakine

swjohnsey said:


> Has anyone taken a look at what happend in Brazil when they were experiencing runaway inflation. The currency was essentially worthless. Same thing in Wiemar Germany. They both recovered, Brazil without a war.


do you mean Argentina?


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## swjohnsey

No, Brazil mid '80s to mid '90s.


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## Dakine

swjohnsey said:


> No, Brazil mid '80s to mid '90s.


neat! hadnt heard about that one, and google searches before I replied last time didnt come up with anything.

yet again, another road we do NOT need to go down, but we probably will anyway.


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## Gians

haley4217 said:


> ...Here's my question to the group. Presuming that an economic collapse is already in the process in the US, while it may be slow or being proped up by the Government or the Fed so that the public doesn't easily percieve the collapse; What do you believe will be the tell tale signs that will preceed the final collapse? What do you believe that as a prepper we should be watching to tell us that we've run out of time to prep and that the failure of the economy is reaching momentum and will happen within the next few days or weeks.


Old but interesting thread. Not sure there will ever be a 'final collapse', but another Great(er) Depression might happen some day. I think the tell tale signs will be good times that only seem to be getting better. Money will be made quickly and the voices of caution will be mostly ignored. I'd look for a lack of faith in banks and markets that begins to gain momentum. Sort of like what we just went through, major financial institutions closing, banks closing etc... Basically a world wide spin downwards, we came close and still haven't seen the US and some European countries fully recover. If China collapses, which is very possible, it will be anybody's guess what happens, our debt might be erased but it may not matter at that point :dunno:


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## LincTex

machinist said:


> If we see banks closing, CC not working, stores and gas stations unable to process a transaction, etc., then it would probably get crazy here, too. That would be a great time to STAY HOME. What you have on hand at that point is what you have, period.


CC's will quit first, banks will be a few hours later (unless a bank holiday is announced). It would still take a couple hours for word to get around - after "they" blame satellites and data centers/servers for the outage. Sheople will believe it at first. But as soon as you start to hear about it being a widespread phenomenon - you will recognize it for what IT IS, still others will not. That is the time you have to get home and get trenched. Panic will abound for the next two weeks.


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## swjohnsey

Gians said:


> Old but interesting thread. Not sure there will ever be a 'final collapse', but another Great(er) Depression might happen some day. I think the tell tale signs will be good times that only seem to be getting better. Money will be made quickly and the voices of caution will be mostly ignored. I'd look for a lack of faith in banks and markets that begins to gain momentum. Sort of like what we just went through, major financial institutions closing, banks closing etc... Basically a world wide spin downwards, we came close and still haven't seen the US and some European countries fully recover. If China collapses, which is very possible, it will be anybody's guess what happens, our debt might be erased but it may not matter at that point :dunno:


If you look at the history of the USA/world the "Great Depression" was just one of many. I have little doubt that we will experience more. It is interesting to read old newspapers from the period of the Great Depression and the government drivel that eminated from it. Jobs are up! Recovery is just around the corner. And that was in 1932.


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## haley4217

*Credit Cards, Banks, Stores, Internet and Cell Phones Go Down!*



LincTex said:


> CC's will quit first, banks will be a few hours later (unless a bank holiday is announced). It would still take a couple hours for word to get around - after "they" blame satellites and data centers/servers for the outage. Sheople will believe it at first. But as soon as you start to hear about it being a widespread phenomenon - you will recognize it for what IT IS, still others will not. That is the time you have to get home and get trenched. Panic will abound for the next two weeks.


Last year this happened twice in the area of Texas where I live. Crews laying pipelines cut fiber optic cables which shut down several thousand square miles. Four counties which represent about an area a little larger than Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts but with only about 50,000 people were shut down for about ten hours when the crews cut the line.

Most of the larger population areas had no cell phone service, internet service was down, telephone service was down and anything depending on any of these were unable to do business. This affected gas stations, grocery stores, pharmacies, hardware stores (except one) and banks. Surprising many of the stores couldn't even accept cash because their systems locked up when the phone and internet went down, at least that is what they said. ATM's were down and banks couldn't handle cashing transactions only thing that they would do is accept deposits and hold them until the system came back up.

The cell phone service in my town was up (AT&T antenna) but the other carriers in the area were down. I could get a signal and call off of my local cell tower but nothing when I was out of the AT&T area. All internet feeds were down and you couldn't even get to the internet off the AT&T cell site. Local phone service worked, you could call anyone on your switch, but couldn't call long distance or even local to another town or exchange. 911 service was out but the emergency services still had radio communication.

So here's what the sheep in the area did. They had TV (Cable & Satellite) and within about three hour there were reports of the cable being cut. Prior to that people didn't panic, although those caught without cash were unhappy that the banks wouldn't cash checks. Many people took their cash and went to the bar to wait for service to come back up others went home and waited for service to be restored.

The second time it happened, as soon as it happened, the word was out that "looks like someone cut a cable again" and people went about their business.

My take from these two experiences is that if the "event" happens during the normal business day, many people are going to go about their business and deal with the inconvenience. If someone hears something on the news or their are reports of it being widespread, I expect people to get nervous but as long as "the government" says don't worry everything is under control, then many people will do just that. I don't expect it will be until many hours into the event, possibly when people wake up the next morning and find that banks are taking a holiday and that their credit cards still don't work that the crisis will become real. Those on food stamps and other forms of benefits probably will expect that the government will take care of them and all will be alright, for a little while longer.

My plan is to start working double speed when the credit cards go down or the banks go down. I want to get a few hours head start on the sheep when they start running toward the cliff when they start to realize that things aren't going to be ok. If I can get an hour or two head start great, four hours even better, eight to ten hours would be spectacular. By six to eight hours after the SHTF event I will be entrenched and locked down at my location and in full defense mode.


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## Sarasyn

I've seen welfare and food stamps mentioned a number of times here and just had to weigh in. I know I risk being called part of the problem here, but we're on food stamps because we came on hard times for a while when my partner was out of work. We can proudly say we've worked our tails off so we won't have to reapply when our benefits are up. Not everyone on assistance is just looking for a handout. Some of us are looking to get a handle on our situation because we know families like ours will be hit hard when the assistance ends and the economy fails in this country.

That being said, being surrounded by people in the system, I think saying the checks will never stop coming is short-sighted. That day is coming and the pace is getting faster. Less families qualify for any benefits in Texas. The checks are getting smaller. In the past year our food stamps were cut by almost a third while our income stayed the same and our expenses went up by almost half. We even added another household member, which should have increased our monthly benefit. Welfare being given to families our size has dropped by $50, which may not seem like much until you realize those families only get $300 every month, and for a family of 6, that's not much to live on. You don't qualify if you have any assets to your name. When we first moved here 6 years ago the benefits a friend of mine got for her family of 4 were three times that. It may be hard to see if you don't live close to the system, but it's disappearing at an alarming rate. The day it dissappears may not be all that far off.

This is why we're scrambling to have a plan in place in case our prep isn't ready in time. We don't have land. We recognize our trailer park will be a bad place to be when things start getting ugly. We want to be as ready as we can in case the economy drops out tomorrow, while working on a long-range plan in case we have one, five, or even ten years to plan. For my family's sake, I hope the downfall is slow enough that we can at least have somewhere we can dig in at instead of having to worry about traveling to get there.


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## haley4217

Sarasyn said:


> I've seen welfare and food stamps mentioned a number of times here and just had to weigh in. I know I risk being called part of the problem here, but we're on food stamps because we came on hard times for a while when my partner was out of work. We can proudly say we've worked our tails off so we won't have to reapply when our benefits are up. Not everyone on assistance is just looking for a handout. Some of us are looking to get a handle on our situation because we know families like ours will be hit hard when the assistance ends and the economy fails in this country.
> 
> That being said, being surrounded by people in the system, I think saying the checks will never stop coming is short-sighted. That day is coming and the pace is getting faster.


Sarasyn, I for one wont be taking shots at you. In fact I applaud your working your tails off to be able to get back on your feet. That's using assistance for what I believe it was intended for, a short term assistance to help someone get back on their feet. I confess that my wife and I had to use the assistance about thirty years ago to get back on our feet.

What I see today around me is people who are using this assistance not as an aid to get back on their feet but as an alternative to a job. I see assistance such as this abused in the area where I live. For example a young man (30 something) who lives with his mother and uses assistance such as this so that he can sleep until 11 AM and doesn't have to go get a job.

It irks me very much to see people abusing a system that was intended to be a helping hand. I used to donate my unused vegetables from the garden to a local food bank, expecting them to help needy in the area. This went on until I saw my vegetables being used at a restaurant in my town. The "locals" who distribute for the food bank were requesting more food than they needed for distribution. This kept on and on until most all of the town was receiving distribution from the food bank and what was left over was given to one of their favorite eating spots to use and sell on the lunch menu.

I think your points about the changes in the assistance programs are well taken and give us a view we don't always have the opportunity to see. The other side of the coin. It does show that many people who get food stamps and other assistance see the need to prepare for their demise and that there are still many others who don't.


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## Sarasyn

Sadly, of the people I know on assistance, my family is the only one I know trying to prepare. With benefits being cut back every year I would think it's pretty clear that the end of that line is quickly approaching. It's one of the reasons our plan involves getting out of our neighborhood. Should assistance suddenly get cut even without a full-scale economic colapse, things are going to start getting rough here. I have a feeling the people who can take care of their families will be preyed upon by those that can't. Some of my neighbors I wouldn't mind helping out, but we aren't in a position to help everyone. If begging doesn't work, what comes next? Stealing? Rioting? Sadly, for every family I know that's working hard to get off assistance, I know two more that are enjoying the benefits.

Interestingly enough, I'm seeing a change in my area. Since welfare has been cut to almost nothing, those trying to live off the system are now turning to Social Security Disability. They can make more money that way since welfare is disappearing and food stamps just aren't enough. I've seen more families applying for assistance each year and most of the people I know that apply are getting turned down. I can honestly see Social Security being the new welfare and welfare completely disappearing in the next five years, maybe less. I already see families that get their kids put on SSI disability for learning dissorders so they can live off their children's benefits.

If the end of the welfare checks is a sign that the collapse of the economy, well, the process is already in the works. The checks will stop coming. Everyone will run to SSI. That program will run out of funding as a result. It's a lot closer than I'd like to think.


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## LincTex

haley4217 said:


> I used to donate my unused vegetables from the garden to a local food bank, expecting them to help needy in the area.


Food bank here won't accept any fresh veggies...
only canned goods and boxed/packaged food that can be stored at room temps.


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## LincTex

Sarasyn said:


> Interestingly enough, I'm seeing a change in my area. Since welfare has been cut to almost nothing, those trying to live off the system are now turning to Social Security Disability. They can make more money that way since welfare is disappearing and food stamps just aren't enough. I can honestly see Social Security being the new welfare


I have noticed the same thing. 
In fact, I know of one older couple in their 50's that are now BOTH on _*"disability"*_..... and just last week came home with a brand spankin' new Hyundai Santa Fe.


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## haley4217

Sarasyn said:


> Should assistance suddenly get cut even without a full-scale economic colapse, things are going to start getting rough here. I have a feeling the people who can take care of their families will be preyed upon by those that can't.


You make a very old point here, as the pain starts to trickle down and those who are only willing to take advantage of the system have less and less then general lawlessness will likely increase even before an economic collapse. A very interesting article yesterday shows how poverty is increasing by double digit increases in many urban areas of the US. One that surprised me is that Austin, Texas urban areas are seeing an increase of people that are in poverty levels. So much to the fact that it came in within the top five of cities I the US.



> If begging doesn't work, what comes next? Stealing? Rioting? Sadly, for every family I know that's working hard to get off assistance, I know two more that are enjoying the benefits.


I believe you've identified a sign of the pending SHTF. I personally have been evaluating and expecting major financial events as being the sign of collapse, something like a major downgrade of US debt or a fall in the stock market. It may be something like this where the needy start looting or rioting not because the benefits totally stop, but instead because the benefits they get don't make ends meet. Either because they can't feed there family or simply because they don't have money for their next six pack or cigarets.



> Interestingly enough, I'm seeing a change in my area. Since welfare has been cut to almost nothing, those trying to live off the system are now turning to Social Security Disability. They can make more money that way since welfare is disappearing and food stamps just aren't enough. I've seen more families applying for assistance each year and most of the people I know that apply are getting turned down. I can honestly see Social Security being the new welfare and welfare completely disappearing in the next five years, maybe less. I already see families that get their kids put on SSI disability for learning dissorders so they can live off their children's benefits.


Two point here... Yes, the growth of disability claims is increasing beyond the point of unemployment claims. Like you said there are a lot of kids with learning disorders that are getting qualified and unfortunately the benefits aren't always going to them.

Second the economy, taxes and health care coverage are driving people to retirement. When I looked at the bottom line of being self employed in 2013 it was better for me to retire in 2013 rather than continuing to work. I'm a baby boomer and I believe many others like me are retiring rather than continuing to work for less and less left for the bottom line after tax increases, more fees, charges, healthcare, etc.



> If the end of the welfare checks is a sign that the collapse of the economy, well, the process is already in the works. The checks will stop coming. Everyone will run to SSI. That program will run out of funding as a result. It's a lot closer than I'd like to think.


After your input, I'm more aware of the side that I don't see. It concerns me that your assessment is likely right and that the problems you describe are closer than many of us may have expected.


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## LincTex

haley4217 said:


> The needy start looting or rioting not because the benefits totally stop, but instead because the benefits they get don't make ends meet. Either because they can't feed there family or simply because they don't have money for their next six pack or cigs...


That is EXACTLY why theft crime is so high right now... and it is happening EVERYWHERE. It's only going to get worse.

I never thought I would **need** an 8-camera security system, but I have one now


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## BillS

LincTex said:


> I am thinking "a few hours".
> 
> Once "the word gets out" there is a run on the banks, grocery store, etc. then panic will start to set in. It took a few hours on 9/11 to set in, so I expect about the same.


I think riots will spring up spontaneously in every big city in the country the minute food stamp cards stop working. The stuff I see on youtube and read on the internet says that government will do nothing to aid local law enforcement when the riots start. They'll wait until there's a public outcry for the federal government to do something and then they'll send in the tanks.

For those who think there won't be a hard collapse you need to consider this:
why else is Homeland Security stockpiling a billion hollow point rounds? They're stockpiling to fight the civil war that will erupt when our dollars no longer buy food at the grocery store.


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## TheLazyL

SHTF. I'm beginning to think it's already here.

DIL has 410 shotgun shells on her Birthday wish list. Wife calls a Big Box sporting store to place the order. Big Box wants to know if the 410 shotgun shells are for a 20 gauge or 12 gauge shotgun...

Big Box Lumber Store. I found the fittings I needed for SDR 35 PVC sewer pipe. Only pipe I find is SDR 40 (fittings are not compatible). I walk to the other end of the store to the outside yard help desk. Outside Yard Help Desk calls someone for the information and sends me back to where I was. OK I could've had a male moment and couldn't find what was staring me in the face (no applause Ladies, male ego you know). So back to the other end of the store to the plumbing department. For 10 minutes I watched a TV screen listing the 3 employees on duty but no employees in the plumbing dept. I go find an employee who takes me back to the SDR 40 pipe and starts taking in out of the rack for me. No the fittings will not work, he doesn't believe me and tries to put a fitting on the pipe. OK. You must want the green pipe, so out to the outside yard we walk. 45 minutes later I'm leaving with 3 fittings and 4 pieces of pipe. 


I will not get into how we waited in the drive thru lane for 10 minutes...10 minutes...while the car in front of us waits until it's their turn to order to decide what to order...and then repeat the process when it's their time to pay, how munch? Oh let me dig thru my purse/wallet/console (answer cell phone call) and see if they have enough money....


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## helicopter5472

TheLazyL said:


> SHTF. I'm beginning to think it's already here.
> 
> DIL has 410 shotgun shells on her Birthday wish list. Wife calls a Big Box sporting store to place the order. Big Box wants to know if the 410 shotgun shells are for a 20 gauge or 12 gauge shotgun...
> 
> Big Box Lumber Store. I found the fittings I needed for SDR 35 PVC sewer pipe. Only pipe I find is SDR 40 (fittings are not compatible). I walk to the other end of the store to the outside yard help desk. Outside Yard Help Desk calls someone for the information and sends me back to where I was. OK I could've had a male moment and couldn't find what was staring me in the face (no applause Ladies, male ego you know). So back to the other end of the store to the plumbing department. For 10 minutes I watched a TV screen listing the 3 employees on duty but no employees in the plumbing dept. I go find an employee who takes me back to the SDR 40 pipe and starts taking in out of the rack for me. No the fittings will not work, he doesn't believe me and tries to put a fitting on the pipe. OK. You must want the green pipe, so out to the outside yard we walk. 45 minutes later I'm leaving with 3 fittings and 4 pieces of pipe.
> 
> I will not get into how we waited in the drive thru lane for 10 minutes...10 minutes...while the car in front of us waits until it's their turn to order to decide what to order...and then repeat the process when it's their time to pay, how munch? Oh let me dig thru my purse/wallet/console (answer cell phone call) and see if they have enough money....


Well you will get the last laugh when SHTF you won't have to worry about these type of people lasting to long.


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## Sarasyn

I honestly don't thonk the food stamp programs and welfare's end are going to be a sudden thing. Like I said, the poor are already being weaned off those programs. They're turning to disability to help make ends meet or when other programs will no longer accept them. I've known more than a few people to get bumped off the system. I'm guessing in a year or two my family would be bumped off of of food stamps. We're bumping ourselves off the system as soon as our benefits are up. No one has done more than whine and complain (though I know one to use it as incentive to pull her life together). Instead I'm seeing more and more people taking on roommates or finding a family member or friend to support them. It's probably not going to be sudden, but a slow weam that will end up degrading. The cards not working won't surprise anyone by that point. It's the people getting slowly starved out that I'm worried about...and the huge turn towards dealing drugs to make ends meet.


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## JayJay

I'm not sure about disability as a last resort.
Here, in Ky, we have an acquaintance with lung disease, and lots of other ailments.
He said one doctor said his lungs are so bad, he should have been on disability 5 years ago.
He is still not accepted. I doubt he lives to see 2014.


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## hillobeans

BillS said:


> I think riots will spring up spontaneously in every big city in the country the minute food stamp cards stop working. The stuff I see on youtube and read on the internet says that government will do nothing to aid local law enforcement when the riots start. They'll wait until there's a public outcry for the federal government to do something and then they'll send in the tanks.
> 
> For those who think there won't be a hard collapse you need to consider this:
> why else is Homeland Security stockpiling a billion hollow point rounds? They're stockpiling to fight the civil war that will erupt when our dollars no longer buy food at the grocery store.


Bill, you do know that "stuff (you) see on youtube and read on the internet" doesn't necessarily count as a valid source, right?


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## LincTex

TheLazyL said:


> SHTF. I'm beginning to think it's already here.
> ...10 minutes...while the car in front of us waits until it's their turn to order to decide what to order...and then repeat the process when it's their time to pay, how much? Oh let me dig thru my purse/wallet/console (answer cell phone call) and see if they have enough money....


That's S.O.P. around here.... and it's almost always one particular race. I don't use the drive-through anymore, going inside is faster.


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## pandamonium

The trigger event will come when those who believe they run the world decide to trigger it, it wont be difficult to collapse the US dollar, since it is a fiat currency and backed by nothing but debt. When they believe the time is right and people will accept any crazy "rescue", THEN, will it happen. People have been conditioned for years now to look to government to rescue when things get tough, didn't used to be that way. Still isn't in some areas, but more and more, people look to DC to save them from everything. What better way to be able to completely throw away the constitution than to create a situation where the people will give ANYTHING to feed their families and themselves, including their RIGHTS. I don't believe people became sheeple by accident, they, IMHO, have been groomed. 
The trigger, i think will more than likely be economic collapse, bank runs, bank closings, entitlements stopping, inflated pricing, etc etc. 
Maybe I sound too conspiracy theory/tin foil hat for some, but when there are people like George Soros out there pulling strings, wanting to create a one world government/new world order crap, I don't put ANYTHING past people like that.


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## LincTex

pandamonium said:


> a situation where the people will give ANYTHING to feed their families and themselves, including their RIGHTS. I don't believe people became sheeple by accident, they, IMHO, have been groomed.


Make people completely dependent on you for everything... goods, food, security.

Make the sheople fat, dumb, and lazy.

Then pull out the rug from under them and now they are your slaves.


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## Sarasyn

There's a lot of that grooming goung on in schools too. The Underground History of American Education by John Taylor Gatto (free to read online, but I can't link.it easily from my phone) talks about schools and their purpose. There are a lot of other writers and podcasters that speak on the subject too. I particularly like Gatto because he backs his information up with proof, including laws put in place to proove his point.

It's now gotten to the point where a lot of people are rabidly against homeschooling because schools are the way. If the government didn't teach our youth, they would never learn. I can't possibly do as well with my kids as the government can because I don't have the same resources.

I can see this also being reflected in other areas in the potential future. Maybe the government rationing out food becomes so comfortable that the majority of the population no longer can imagine a life of having to tend to their own nutritional needs, or medical, or whatever. The brainwashing of society to trust their government without question is already beginning.

I think that's the scariest part. If we trust the government to tell our children what to think and don't back it up with encouraging our children to be free thinkers outside of school, how can we expect our children to grow up questioning anything the government does? After all, the government wants to paint a pretty, biased picture of itself.


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## pandamonium

Sarasyn said:


> There's a lot of that grooming goung on in schools too. The Underground History of American Education by John Taylor Gatto (free to read online, but I can't link.it easily from my phone) talks about schools and their purpose. There are a lot of other writers and podcasters that speak on the subject too. I particularly like Gatto because he backs his information up with proof, including laws put in place to proove his point.
> 
> It's now gotten to the point where a lot of people are rabidly against homeschooling because schools are the way. If the government didn't teach our youth, they would never learn. I can't possibly do as well with my kids as the government can because I don't have the same resources.
> 
> I can see this also being reflected in other areas in the potential future. Maybe the government rationing out food becomes so comfortable that the majority of the population no longer can imagine a life of having to tend to their own nutritional needs, or medical, or whatever. The brainwashing of society to trust their government without question is already beginning.
> 
> I think that's the scariest part. If we trust the government to tell our children what to think and don't back it up with encouraging our children to be free thinkers outside of school, how can we expect our children to grow up questioning anything the government does? After all, the government wants to paint a pretty, biased picture of itself.


 People should NEVER trust the government, when you trust someone without question to decide for you how your life should be run you have given up responsibility for yourself, and you no longer have a say about anything. People should be questioning EVERYTHING the government does. Remember; POWER CORRUPTS, ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY!!!


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## swjohnsey

Most public schools do everything including begging to get parents actively involved in the education of their children. Go to your child's school. Show up unexpectedly. Don't take some crackpot's word for it. Find out for yourself. Most teachers welcome help from parents.


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## Padre

haley4217 said:


> What do you believe will be the tell tale signs that will preceed the final collapse? What do you believe that as a prepper we should be watching to tell us that we've run out of time to prep and that the failure of the economy is reaching momentum and will happen within the next few days or weeks.


Eight pages in I am sure everything has been said but I figured I would throw in my two cents...

Stock market--the real world connection between the market and the real economy is tenuous at current, but a large decline in the 50%+ range would likely demonstrate a decoupling of the (fiat) dollar from real goods. Most people are detached enough from the stock market that it will take 1-3 days for folks to respond to a market collapse.

Grid down--people are used to loosing power for short periods of time. While storms may send them running to buy out the milk aisle just losing power will likely not. Invest in off grid comms, if you hear about wide spread blackouts (regional or national), or witness that blackouts are not limited to the grid (EMP) its time to get in your final preps. This is particularly true if the outages correspond with large scale troop mobilizations.

Virus--Stories of dozens of flu cases/deaths in a short time (days), although I would go out only if I had great need or was certain that there were no local cases.


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## drfacefixer

swjohnsey said:


> Most public schools do everything including begging to get parents actively involved in the education of their children. Go to your child's school. Show up unexpectedly. Don't take some crackpot's word for it. Find out for yourself. Most teachers welcome help from parents.


I am with you 100% on this. Ive never met a teacher that felt they were the primary educator of my children. The parents are key to how well the kids will do in school.


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## Sarasyn

swjohnsey said:


> Most public schools do everything including begging to get parents actively involved in the education of their children. Go to your child's school. Show up unexpectedly. Don't take some crackpot's word for it. Find out for yourself. Most teachers welcome help from parents.


I would gladly, but my kids are homeschooled!

Actually, Gatto was an educator himself, so were a lot of the blogs I've read. They speak (or write) of the challenges, as teachers, in trying to change the system. Even my own aunt was a teacher and advised me against going into the field for that very reason. It's not that parents aren't encouraged in the classroom. The problem.is rocking the boat and teaching children how to think, not what to think.

For example, in my state they're trying to eliminate the slave trade from American history. They no longer teach about the labor movement. They also don't teach about women's suffrage and the equal rights movement. At least that's what was passed as the new history curriculum. A lot of teachers conveniently "don't get the memo" and teach those subjects anyway.

The problem with schools isn't the teachers. There are some wonderful teachers. The problem is what the schools were designed to do, to make a docile workforce already capable of doing repetitive tasks all day long, in other words, ideal laborers, not free thinkers. Sadly, some of the best teachers I know have lost their jobs for bucking the trend and fighting the system in order to do what they are paid to do, educate young minds, not just follow along with the standards of the school system. Rarely do I find a teacher that thinks the school system is doing the best it can for children.


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## partdeux

swjohnsey said:


> Most teachers welcome help from parents.


pfffttt

That's not my experience.

Social studies teacher that is forever known as the member of the flat earth society

WAY overpaid 8th grade math teacher who had more errors on his test grading than his students.

English teacher that was too busy going to the union convention to actually grade her students.

I could go on and on and on... actually pretty sad.


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## invision

partdeux said:


> pfffttt
> 
> That's not my experience.
> 
> Social studies teacher that is forever known as the member of the flat earth society
> 
> WAY overpaid 8th grade math teacher who had more errors on his test grading than his students.
> 
> English teacher that was too busy going to the union convention to actually grade her students.
> 
> I could go on and on and on... actually pretty sad.


Ok, jumping into the mix here... My parents where both public school teachers, I went to public school, and my daughter goes to public school. I think it truly depends upon "where" the school is.... For example, Cam's High School is one of the best in GA. Not only do they push the kids academically but also socially with every sports, drama, and academic club possible. They encourage parent involvement - teachers send emails to parents every couple weeks, and if for example Cam does bad on a test, we get communication from the teacher almost immediately - with personal notes about what she screwed up, and how to remedy. This has been going on from 1st grade, and we have been told goes all through high school...

The thing is we live in a very high income area of Atlanta, so the school has the resources to promote learning. The engineering department - yes i said engineering - has the latest equipment from robotics to PCs to Networking/software.... The students have options to choose career tracks - engineering, software development, network engineering, healthcare, etc.... when we did the walk through in May, every workstation in the engineering department was a brand new multiprocessor system with the latest CAD software, OS, etc... As a computer guru, I was impressed - their server room rivaled some of my best clients - students will learn not only server, but VM (virtual) as well as SAN technologies... For those who don't understand a SAN - minimum investment is $60,000 for one - they had 2 so they could start teaching cloud technologies - replicating data between networks....

If I was to harbor a guess - based on the income levels in my own neighborhood, 1-4 mom's don't work and are active in their kid's academic school life - including helping at the schools for the entire area, now that actually maybe a wider spread 1-7 or 1-10, but I have no real way to find that information... If I request a meeting, the request is answered within 24 hours, and the meeting is within 5 days... I have had issues with a bad teacher - 7th grade English, was requesting a term paper that met 9th grade standards and was graded as such - way to advanced, way to hard, and I wasn't the only parent to complain, at the time I was number 25 and the principle said they had another 20 behind me... Lets just say last year, the 7th graders didn't have the same difficulty as when Cam was in 7th, and the trouble teacher - gone. Yes he still teaches, but they moved him out of the school... Over 100 complaints total, administration listened - as the vice principle said to me - it is our job to listen to you and take actions if needed.

Now, the Sad part - if we lived inner city Atlanta or in say MS, she would go to a private school... Why? The schools don't have the same opportunities as her current high school. If we couldn't afford private school - then you better believe I would be as active in her school life as I am today...

A teachers job is to educate a child on a topic, they may have guidelines established by the state on what to teach - but no shit - Cam's 8th grade science teacher had them make solar cookers and cooked with them, her social studies teacher talked about the national debt, fiat currencies, and how the federal reserve works... Course we are in a red state too...


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## ContinualHarvest

invision said:


> A teachers job is to educate a child on a topic...


It is a parent's responsibility to send their child to school ready to learn. Sadly, many people fail to do this. I've seen it over and over again. 
It takes teamwork to educate a child. Too many parents just see school as a babysitter, and too many teachers just don't care about helping people learn.


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## swjohnsey

My daughter went to a small parocial school through the 5th grade and then to public school in a small town where my wife taught. They did pretty good (I wasn't an English major). She took chemistry, physics, calculus and Spanish and graduated validictorian.


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## Sarasyn

But again, none of this explains why schools were created or what their purpose is. None of this addresses how schools are part of the machine that programs people with the idea that the government is good. It's also gotten to the pount where most people, even college educated people, believe they aren't qualified to teach their children. That's the point I was making, not whether teachers want parents involved or not, not whether schools listen to parents or not. The point was simply about why public schools were created and what they were designed to do. There will always be great teachers and great schools, but that doesn't change what tthe institution was created for, only the end result.


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## drfacefixer

Sarasyn said:


> But again, none of this explains why schools were created or what their purpose is. None of this addresses how schools are part of the machine that programs people with the idea that the government is good. It's also gotten to the pount where most people, even college educated people, believe they aren't qualified to teach their children. That's the point I was making, not whether teachers want parents involved or not, not whether schools listen to parents or not. The point was simply about why public schools were created and what they were designed to do. There will always be great teachers and great schools, but that doesn't change what tthe institution was created for, only the end result.


Ummm yeah.....my kids will go to school, become well educated so they can achieve whatever they want to and be an independent free thinking part of society. The rate they are headed, they will likely achieve more than I. Sure, I could home school them, but I would rather someone skilled in the techniques and in tune with the needs of their current developmental level. I'm not saying homeschooling can't be done well. However, I can teach them a few hours hours a day giving 100% while knowing their teachers likewise put in a fair amount of effort during the school day. One person trying to do it all doesn't necessarily work out well for the teacher or the student. One of the best aspects of a great teacher is to know when the pupil has superseded their ability to teach. People place their own limitations upon themselves.


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## Bobbb

drfacefixer said:


> Ummm yeah.....my kids will go to school, become well educated so they can achieve whatever they want to and be an independent free thinking part of society.


This presumes a cause and effect relationship that hasn't been established. If there's one thing that schools are not generally known for it's producing independent and free thinkers. If you want your kids to be independent free thinkers then that task is going to fall on your shoulders - you're going to have to give them the tools to unlearn much of what they learn in school, to question the axioms that are taken for granted, to question the methodology, to question the evidence brought to bear and question the evidence which is excluded from lessons.



> The rate they are headed, they will likely achieve more than I.


Without knowing anything about you, if what you say here is true, then I'm betting that their success is going to be driven primarily by the shoulders that they get to stand on - the intelligence and character that you and your wife gifted to them at birth, how you shaped them by your parenting, how they were shaped by their peer networks and the values that you alongside their peers imparted into them.



> Sure, I could home school them, but I would rather someone skilled in the techniques and in tune with the needs of their current developmental level.


You're extending an unwarranted professional courtesy here. The operational presumption attached to professionals, like doctors and engineers, is that their fields improve over time as measured by a number of metrics. Physicians and medicine improve over time as measured by better patient survival rates, as measured by physician productivity. Civic engineers keep pushing the limits with their creations. Same with electrical engineers and electronic engineers. The burning question here is why teachers are classed as professionals in that they fail to pass muster on this basic requirement. Never forget that teachers are generally drawn from the most shallow end of the pool in terms of intelligence and same too with professors of education. The dumb teaching the stupid is not a winning formula for producing education practices and practitioners who improve student outcomes over time. The field of education is notorious for adopting fads which don't work. Banning red felt pens for marking tests. Learning circles. Banning streaming and now reintroducing streaming. Social promotion. Peer teaching where students teach other students. The list goes on. The methods of science, where a hypothesis is tested, falsification efforts are mounted, and so on are mostly absent from the process of teaching and the process of developing new pedagogy. It's more akin to hucksterism where some smart Johnny gets a novel idea and then pushes the hell out of it in order to build his reputation or enhance his career by consulting on the reform he proposes. We saw this with the rise and fall of Middle Schools, the rise and fall of Whole Language over Phonics, with the rise and now fall of Whole Math.

If medical doctors practiced by the model used by teachers, they'd likely be strung up by the relatives of dead patients who fell victim to their voodoo witch doctoring.



> I'm not saying homeschooling can't be done well. However, I can teach them a few hours hours a day giving 100% while knowing their teachers likewise put in a fair amount of effort during the school day. One person trying to do it all doesn't necessarily work out well for the teacher or the student. One of the best aspects of a great teacher is to know when the pupil has superseded their ability to teach. People place their own limitations upon themselves.


When a parent teaches a child, the education that takes place is very personalized and therefore efficient - no time is wasted while the teacher attends to other students.


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## swjohnsey

They don't have public school in Afghanistan. Public schools were created to educate those of us who are not wealthy. The rich have always had access to education. It is more efficient to educate children in masses just as it is more efficient to build automobile on an assembly line. Without the assembly line cars are a toy for the rich. With an assembly line cars are for everyman. Same with education.


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## OHprepper

I was there 06-07 and again in 08-09. They had public schools in both provinces. Boys only though. And this was a rural area.


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## LincTex

swjohnsey said:


> It is more efficient to educate children in masses just as it is more efficient to build automobile on an assembly line.


Efficiency doesn't always equal quality. It only satisfies the needs of the masses.

One-on-one teaching isn't always efficient, but the quality is almost always better.


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## swjohnsey

LincTex said:


> Efficiency doesn't always equal quality. It only satisfies the needs of the masses.
> 
> One-on-one teaching isn't always efficient, but the quality is almost always better.


On that we can agree. Do you drive a Lamborgini?


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## helicopter5472

swjohnsey said:


> On that we can agree. Do you drive a Lamborgini?


I think he drives a "Smart" car...


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## LincTex

swjohnsey said:


> Do you drive a Lamborgini?


How ironic. Lambo's are "low quantity" (low rate of production) but that doesn't necessarily translate into "high quality".  (just MHO; I think they are built poorly)

I like to use the example of music teachers. It is difficult to be an effective guitar or piano teacher when instructing a large mass. The quality of the lessons goes up a LOT when the instruction is one-on-one.


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## BillS

hillobeans said:


> Bill, you do know that "stuff (you) see on youtube and read on the internet" doesn't necessarily count as a valid source, right?


Yeah, like your post for instance.


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## BillS

pandamonium said:


> The trigger event will come when those who believe they run the world decide to trigger it, it wont be difficult to collapse the US dollar, since it is a fiat currency and backed by nothing but debt. When they believe the time is right and people will accept any crazy "rescue", THEN, will it happen. People have been conditioned for years now to look to government to rescue when things get tough, didn't used to be that way. Still isn't in some areas, but more and more, people look to DC to save them from everything. What better way to be able to completely throw away the constitution than to create a situation where the people will give ANYTHING to feed their families and themselves, including their RIGHTS. I don't believe people became sheeple by accident, they, IMHO, have been groomed.
> The trigger, i think will more than likely be economic collapse, bank runs, bank closings, entitlements stopping, inflated pricing, etc etc.
> Maybe I sound too conspiracy theory/tin foil hat for some, but when there are people like George Soros out there pulling strings, wanting to create a one world government/new world order crap, I don't put ANYTHING past people like that.


I think government is making more and more people dependent because they want them to die after it hits the fan. The UN's Agenda 21 and some prominent globalists want to depopulate the earth down to about 500 million. A worldwide economic collapse is the perfect way to do that.

I agree with your point that the collapse will happen when TPTB are ready for it. Almost everything I read says they want to keep things going as long as they can but I don't believe that anymore.


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## Sarasyn

LincTex said:


> I like to use the example of music teachers. It is difficult to be an effective guitar or piano teacher when instructing a large mass. The quality of the lessons goes up a LOT when the instruction is one-on-one.


I love this. It's a perfect example.

Thinking about the school system, what about the great men and women in history that either didn't go to school, or were horrible students. Many of the great men I can list off (Franklin, Edison, Bell, Einstein) were not known for being good students. School didn't help these great men become great.

Mass education is designed to be just like any other mass-produced good, a means of getting the end result in the most efficient way possible, not the most effective. It was never designed to create a quality result, just to create an ideal result, to create a docile work force accustomed to long labor hours of repetitive tasks. Schools do this pretty well. Many of them teach children what to think, not how to think for themselves.

Further, look at dinner conversations back before public schools were a thing. The family was noted for sitting down and talking about current events and politics. Now the average family I know has dinner in front.of the boob tube, often times not even all.in the same room, with the general undetstanding of "Shut up! I'm watching this!" True, some families in America still have family dinners and discuss important topics, but it's clear the trend is towards less free-thinking and striving for greatness rather than more. The average family is engaging in less intelligent pursuits than they did even 100 years ago. Social time within the family gets replaced eith video games and TV.

I don't doubt that school has something to do with it. Most of the adults I know don't read more than a magazine article. Some read one to four books a year. A sad few read as much as I do, two or three books a month, which doesn't include books read to my kids. Many people I know don't enjoy reading at all. They'd rather watch a movie or play a video game. I don't doubt schools turning research and reading into "work" being the cause. Personally I live research and learning, but I'm coming to find that few people will extensively research a topic beforr giving up. I want to know everything there is to know to make sure I get the most accurate answer. Most people I know take the first answer as granted, even if they later find out it's wrong.


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## swjohnsey

I wonder why colleges and universities use use classes instead of one on one instruction?


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## TheLazyL

_"What do you think will be the trigger event and the signs of the event for the SHTF?"_

The NSC and/or FBI and/or CIA and/or DOJ and the President of the Divided States.


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## TheLazyL

swjohnsey said:


> I wonder why colleges and universities use use classes instead of one on one instruction?


Revenue...


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## hiwall

> What do you think will be the trigger event and the signs of the event for the SHTF?


Do you think all the Washington scandals that are going on right now could be the first step to SHTF?

So Obama decided to arm the "rebels" in Syria and will likely start a "no-fly zone". Russia does not want a no-fly zone. Will this be the start of WW3?


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## swjohnsey

So Socrates and Plato were driven by money?


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## Tacitus

swjohnsey said:


> I wonder why colleges and universities use use classes instead of one on one instruction?


Group instruction is easier with a group who want to be there? They don't have to worry about discipline, because kids who don't want to be there are not there?

Just what occurred to me when I saw your question.


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## LongRider

hiwall said:


> If they ever announce a bank holiday or say they have to close the banks due to a hacker attack(or any excuse they use). Grab your cash and head to the store.


If they declare a bank holiday turn every red cent you can lay your hands on into small denomination gold and silver coins. As in gold/silver francs, lira and British Sovereigns. Do not buy bullion or collectors coins, like American Gold/Silver Eagles or Canadian Gold/silver Maple leafs because
A) virtually all of them are sold at a healthy premium over the spot price of the gold contained within the coin. Which has no value in the market place
B) purchases of over 20K are reported to the feds.
If the market ever closes early as it did in 08 liquidate all stocks and investments as soon as it opens again. Including any 401(k) investment plans. Doing so saved us well over six figures in 08 even with the penalties we paid on the wife's 401(k). As you recall within days stocks were worth pennies on the dollar and have yet to recover.


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## MsSage

I dont mean to grip but I enjoy reading this thread except when it is about education...that really is not about triggers but a different issue.
Can yall start another thread and move that conversation over there......its hard to skip over when its more than one page and that is all the conversation is about....
Yes I am reading this more now since I have had people ask me and tell me they are seeing signs of something happening. A few are NOT preppers but they see it and are looking for more information.


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## drfacefixer

Bobbb, while I agree with you an most, you inserted a lot of your own conclusions on my short and simple statements. I'm writing on my phone mind you.

no one here has defined "free thinkers" nor what schools we are talking about, although I would assume that the majority would realize that not all schools are equivalent. The crux of my post was that the parents must be involved to do exactly that - question what was being taught and guide the child to understand why it is being taught. Not necessarily because I'm assuming the wrong things were put in their head and now I have to rebuild it, but rather to make connections to other ideas to foster the importance of a knowledge base. I then have the ability to further explore and develop those ideas and curiosities (just as you did on your hike a while back) The interaction of having multiple teachers in my child's life ultimately leads then to question validity of what and why subjects are taught. There is bound to be conflicts and open communication will allow the student to fulfill these intellectual curiosities and resolve the conflict.

We do have differences is our values of teachers. If IQ were the ideal factor to gage a teacher by, then likely you, cowboy hermit, and labotomi would be the few fit for teaching. Their are many other necessary factors - patience, insight, reading social and developmental cues of a child, ability to communicate, intellectual curiosity, confidence, compassion, organization. Teaching as a profession is still evolving. Pedagogies in the fields of mathematics and science education, literacy, computer supported learning, and specialist fields such as special education, indigenous education, music education are being studied and manipulated to understand how best to teach it.



> Without knowing anything about you, if what you say here is true, then I'm betting that their success is going to be driven primarily by the shoulders that they get to stand on - the intelligence and character that you and your wife gifted to them at birth, how you shaped them by your parenting, how they were shaped by their peer networks and the values that you alongside their peers imparted into them.


True. With the correction of values that you alongside their peers impart into them. It is a continuous process of always being involved. (just being picky)

My position wasn't to say traditional schooling is better than home schooling. Simply put, I disagree with the idea that free education exists to create a docile workforce with the inability to question government. If that was the case then no education would trump giving the population the tools to effectively communicate and endless amounts of avenues to chase intellectual pursuits.

There are plenty of examples where group learning is favored over individual - however both are ideal. Leadership is best learned in group setting. you can't have an orchestra or sports team of one. The Socratic teaching method progresses faster when questions are coming from a multitude of sources. My bottom line is 1) parental involvement is key 2) multiple teachers if you want your child to experience growth beyond your own potential.


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## BillS

LongRider said:


> If they declare a bank holiday turn every red cent you can lay your hands on into small denomination gold and silver coins. As in gold/silver francs, lira and British Sovereigns. Do not buy bullion or collectors coins, like American Gold/Silver Eagles or Canadian Gold/silver Maple leafs because
> A) virtually all of them are sold at a healthy premium over the spot price of the gold contained within the coin. Which has no value in the market place
> B) purchases of over 20K are reported to the feds.
> If the market ever closes early as it did in 08 liquidate all stocks and investments as soon as it opens again. Including any 401(k) investment plans. Doing so saved us well over six figures in 08 even with the penalties we paid on the wife's 401(k). As you recall within days stocks were worth pennies on the dollar and have yet to recover.


I think now is a good time to dump all your stocks and liquidate your 401k. It's better to take it out now with a tax penalty than to lose all of it later. The stock market could have a major correction at almost any time now.

Given the expectation of a bank holiday, it would make sense to start keeping some of your cash at home.


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## swjohnsey

When Warren Buffett liquidates his stock I might think about it.


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## BillS

There are two recent developments to watch:

The "rebels" in Syria will now get direct and official aid from the Obama administration. They were arming them secretly before. I think the difference matters because eventually there will be boots on the ground and it will most likely lead to World War 3 with Russia and China.

The other thing to watch is the dollar index. The dollar is down 4% from its May 22nd high. The decline is the steepest one in the last year. If the dollar keeps dropping we're going to see some serious inflation. You'll be able to watch gas prices soar past $4 a gallon.


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## hiwall

> I think now is a good time to dump all your stocks and liquidate your 401k.


This might be good advise(who really knows). I freely admit I never expect to see the money in my IRA's. But I view my IRA's as my "I was totally wrong about the economy" hedge. If I am wrong and somehow the US government keeps things going as they are then I will have that IRA money at some point. If I am right and SHTF this year(or whenever) then I will get by with the money I have in liquid cash now. Other than turn that money into PM's, I don't really know what I would do with it. If it was a large enough amount I would cash it out and buy an elaborate permanent BOL. So I will just keep buying extra food and hope for the best.


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## Tacitus

swjohnsey said:


> When Warren Buffett liquidates his stock I might think about it.


Not an expert on Buffet, but it seems like he buys companies like Heinz. I don't think he plays in the market like I do, with small purchases of Dell or Microsoft stock. That is interesting to me.

I should probably buy small shares in his companies (rather than buying the expensive shares of his fund).


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## Tacitus

hiwall said:


> This might be good advise(who really knows). I freely admit I never expect to see the money in my IRA's. But I view my IRA's as my "I was totally wrong about the economy" hedge. If I am wrong and somehow the US government keeps things going as they are then I will have that IRA money at some point. If I am right and SHTF this year(or whenever) then I will get by with the money I have in liquid cash now. ... So I will just keep buying extra food and hope for the best.


This is how I think. I prepare for the worst. I also prepare for the best. If I really thought TEOTWAWKI was certain to happen, I wouldn't be offering to spend astronomical sums for 4 year degrees for my kids...I would be buying a farm, and only offer to pay for welding certifications, EMT training, and the like.

Maybe I am wasting money on my food stores. Maybe I am wasting money on my kids' educations. Maybe I am wasting money on my home owner's insurance. Either way, I am comfortable making the expenditures on each. We never know what will happen. All I can be is prepared for every reasonable case.

(I do really want to buy that farm anyway, though.... I'm a country boy stuck in the city.)


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## BillS

hiwall said:


> This might be good advise(who really knows). I freely admit I never expect to see the money in my IRA's. But I view my IRA's as my "I was totally wrong about the economy" hedge. If I am wrong and somehow the US government keeps things going as they are then I will have that IRA money at some point. If I am right and SHTF this year(or whenever) then I will get by with the money I have in liquid cash now. Other than turn that money into PM's, I don't really know what I would do with it. If it was a large enough amount I would cash it out and buy an elaborate permanent BOL. So I will just keep buying extra food and hope for the best.


You might want to look at how much you have in your IRA compared to your other cash. I don't think it's a good idea to have 90% of your savings in an IRA. I expect a dollar collapse in the next year or two. Possibly as early as this fall.


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## Sarasyn

The link to schools was made in specific reference to another comment about the government trying to get the general population to trust them, possibly to the degree of giving up even more freedoms. There is enough evidence to support that being a possibility from the people who question the school system. The government trying to lull the population into thinking government knows best is a distinct possibility. I wasn't even comparing group learning versus solitary, or private schools and classes versus homeschooling. It was a commentary on "free" public schools and an observation of a lower class population that's less inclined towards free thinking and striving for greatness. If the lower classes are already being taught to rely on the government through schools, welfare, disability, etc, they'll be more likely to give up freedoms when the time comes. It's believable that the government may be setting themselves up to be the heroes, as someone else implied.

As much as the stock markets and all of that are a good indicator that things are going to get bad, that may just come into play too late. I've been seeing the number of poor consistantly growing in my area. The food banks have been limiting visits to four visits a year per family. The number of evictions due to non-payment of rent have trippled in my area in the past year because benefits are being cut. The waiting lists for low income housing are steadily closing after having three to five year waiting lists. Chances are it's only going to get worse. And what happens when the poor go under?


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## LincTex

swjohnsey said:


> I wonder why colleges and universities use use classes instead of one on one instruction?


I doubt you truly "wonder". Colleges and universities use PAID faculty to instruct their classes. The less faculty per student required, the less they pay in labor costs. As The LazyL says, it is simply a matter of economics, and has nothing to do with quality of education.


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## hiwall

> You might want to look at how much you have in your IRA compared to your other cash. I don't think it's a good idea to have 90% of your savings in an IRA. I expect a dollar collapse in the next year or two. Possibly as early as this fall.


Thanks, Bill. I totally agree with you and spend time thinking on the right course of action. For right now I'm satisfied with how my preps are going. But all of us here watch the news and inform each other so none of us are caught flat-footed. I am truly happy to be in with all of you on this site!


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## Tweto

swjohnsey said:


> When Warren Buffett liquidates his stock I might think about it.


Maybe you haven't been keeping up on the news, but Buffet has been converting stocks to cash and they now have the largest cash position in their history.


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## Bobbb

drfacefixer said:


> Pedagogies in the fields of mathematics and science education, literacy, computer supported learning, and specialist fields such as special education, indigenous education, music education are being studied and manipulated to understand how best to teach it.


This is presuming that there is a there there. Imagine if medicine worked like the field of education. Some huckster comes up with an idea, pushes into the public realm, gets supporters who like the idea and then they all work to implement the idea. The question of whether the idea is sound or delivers intended results is beside the point and will likely be determined long after the reform has been implemented and institutionalized.

Kind of like this:

Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Home Computers on Academic Achievement among Schoolchildren​
Computers are an important part of modern education, yet many schoolchildren lack access to a computer at home. *We test* whether this impedes educational achievement by conducting the largest-ever *field experiment* that randomly provides free home computers to students. Although computer ownership and use increased substantially, *we find no effects on any educational outcomes*, including grades, test scores, credits earned, attendance and disciplinary actions. Our estimates are precise enough to rule out even modestly-sized positive or negative impacts. The estimated null effect is consistent with survey evidence showing no change in homework time or other "intermediate" inputs in education.​
Why the heck does this finding have to come from the economics literature? Shouldn't education "researchers" have this nailed down before they proceeded towards having policies shaped, pushed and implemented which are based on the hypothesis that computers in school will enhance the student performance metrics?



> My position wasn't to say traditional schooling is better than home schooling. Simply put, I disagree with the idea that free education *exists to* create a docile workforce with the inability to question government.


I agree that schools aren't designed for that purpose though they do a remarkable job to that end. Public education has been captured by the liberals' Long March Through The Institutions. This is why my wife and I are paying through the nose for private schooling and even there I'm finding that I'm occasionally having to "unteach" my children false things that they've been taught and this leads to bigger questions from them as to why their teachers are teaching them "lies" and that's a hard question to answer to kids who don't have the sophistication to understand the world.



> The Socratic teaching method progresses faster when questions are coming from a multitude of sources.


I agree. The problem is that most kids don't get exposed to much of the Dialogue in schooling - it's mostly a stream of information that has to be presented to the class and it's targeted at either the slowest in the group or the middle of the group. A small group of equally matched students paired with a teacher could proceed along a Socratic path and achieve good results, but that happens very rarely, and so any Socratic benefit to young people comes about mostly from individual interactions with adults.



> My bottom line is 1) parental involvement is key 2) multiple teachers if you want your child to experience growth beyond your own potential.


I agree as to point #1. Point #2 should work in principle so long as those multiple teachers are bringing to the table attributes which the solitary teacher doesn't possess and the attributes that they do bring translate into the students having better comprehension of the subject matter.


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## Magus

Much better.good stuff there!


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## tsrwivey

s. My bottom line is 1) parental involvement is key 2) multiple teachers if you want your child to experience growth beyond your own potential.[/QUOTE]

As a real live homeschooler with two grown homeschooled (k-12) kids, I have to say this is untrue. People learn all sorts of things without someone there to spoon feed them the information. My older daughter taught herself to play piano & read music, all without ANY poking or prodding from me. Matter of fact, I have a 15 year old patient with the intellect of a 2-3 year old that learned on his own to play piano. He was born to a 14 year old mother in a toilet & was the oldest of five kids she had before age 20. He was still sucking a bottle at age 9. I think it's safe to say she wasn't involved in his education nor did she provide for a piano teacher. If he can teach himself piano, I'm betting any child of average intellect has the ability to learn on their own. Schools teach them that they must be talked to like their too stupid to figure anything out on their own so a teacher must break the information down into tiny bites so their poor feeble minds can handle it.

I teach my kids to read widely & read well then turn them completely loose by the time they're high school age. If my 14 year old still needs to be spoon fed information & her hand held to learn anything, I am a complete & utter failure as a parent. If their college professors are any indication, my method has produced two of the "best students they've had the privilege of teaching". My job as a parent is to work myself out of a job -To produce Christians with the thinking skills & self discipline to learn whatever it is they need or want to learn without having to depend on anyone to teach it to them.


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## Bobbb

tsrwivey said:


> As a real live homeschooler with two grown homeschooled (k-12) kids, I have to say this is untrue. People learn all sorts of things without someone there to spoon feed them the information. My older daughter taught herself to play piano & read music, all without ANY poking or prodding from me.


What I took from drfacefixer's 2nd point was that the "teacher" could also be embedded within a book, so if your daughter learned to play the piano did she do so by reinventing the wheel and discovering musical notation independently or did she read books, watch instructional videos, and thus stand on the shoulders of the musical innovators and teachers who preceded her? While the teacher could be embedded within a book, if the teachers are living persons who each share some unique knowledge or perspective with the student, then it is the student who benefits from this diversity of viewpoints and it's better to be more broadly exposed than to be exposed to only a narrow slice of intellectual life.

The take-away point that I get from your account is that your daughter took responsibility for educating herself rather than passing that responsibility onto a teacher who then has to force her to learn.

Having your kids read the thoughts of authors from different perspectives is, basically, the same thing as having them influenced by different teachers. It's not the person in the form of teacher which is so critical, it's the different perspectives that are brought before the student. The teacher and the book are merely the vessels which contain the knowledge being passed on.

So long as a home schooling parent doesn't isolate their kid so that they only receive the benefit of her wisdom, and that's not how home schooling actually functions, then the added benefit of being exposed to multiple teachers isn't something that is an exclusive feature of group schooling.


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## tsrwivey

hiwall said:


> This might be good advise(who really knows). I freely admit I never expect to see the money in my IRA's. But I view my IRA's as my "I was totally wrong about the economy" hedge. If I am wrong and somehow the US government keeps things going as they are then I will have that IRA money at some point. If I am right and SHTF this year(or whenever) then I will get by with the money I have in liquid cash now. Other than turn that money into PM's, I don't really know what I would do with it. If it was a large enough amount I would cash it out and buy an elaborate permanent BOL. So I will just keep buying extra food and hope for the best.


We took nearly everything out of IRA's in '08, right before everything tanked. We put it in real estate. The market' s pretty good here in east Texas, we buy when it's on sale & hold usually but sometimes sell. We have rental property too. Hubby is a builder, so it fits in well with his knowledge & skill set. We couldn't figure out anything else to do with it, at least we can drive by & look at it. :dunno:


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## swjohnsey

When the market crashed in '29 folks got rich. For every share of stock sold there was one bought. The smart folks were buying. GE, Ford, GM were all around in '29.


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## tsrwivey

swjohnsey said:


> When the market crashed in '29 folks got rich. For every share of stock sold there was one bought. The smart folks were buying. GE, Ford, GM were all around in '29.


Very few got rich, most lost their a$$es. I'm making a solid 20% on my RE & have a large amount of control over the risk I'm assuming. I'm good with that.


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## tsrwivey

Most people think "classroom" when they think of a teacher.

My daughter & my patient both learned to play by ear first. Daughter learned notes by learning to read the music to songs she already knew how to play.


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## BillS

Yes, after the crash of 1929, there was a buyer for every stock that sold for pennies on the dollar. There were investors buying stock in American car companies like Hudson, Nash, Packard, Studebaker, Willys-Overland, Pierce-Arrow, Peerless, Stutz, Marmon, Du Pont, Durant, Duesenberg, Auburn, Hupmobile, and Kissel.


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## swjohnsey

Most of those companies were around long after the crash.The folks who didn't sell in the crash were generally O.K.The folks who had cash to buy sound companies got rich. It would be interesting to see how many of the Fortune 500 were around in '29.


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## BillS

tsrwivey said:


> We took nearly everything out of IRA's in '08, right before everything tanked. We put it in real estate. The market' s pretty good here in east Texas, we buy when it's on sale & hold usually but sometimes sell. We have rental property too. Hubby is a builder, so it fits in well with his knowledge & skill set. We couldn't figure out anything else to do with it, at least we can drive by & look at it. :dunno:


Around here rental property is the way to go. Condos in particular. There's one for sale right now going for $39,900 that you could rent out for $600 a month. Condo fees are about $100 a month. So even after condo fees, once it's paid for you'd gross about 15% a year on your money.


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## swjohnsey

Folks who bought real estate cheap during the great depression got rich. Don't think I would touch a condo as an investment.


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## BillS

Some developments in Syria:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-president-assad-forces-in-syria-8660358.html

Iran to send 4,000 troops to aid President Assad forces in Syria


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## Tacitus

BillS said:


> Yes, after the crash of 1929, there was a buyer for every stock that sold for pennies on the dollar. There were investors buying stock in American car companies like Hudson, Nash, Packard, Studebaker, Willys-Overland, Pierce-Arrow, Peerless, Stutz, Marmon, Du Pont, Durant, Duesenberg, Auburn, Hupmobile, and Kissel.


I've always thought the Duesenberg was a cool car. Maybe it could be my post-EMP vehicle.


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## swjohnsey

Rolling art. The engines are as beautiful as the body. Being rich has its advantages.


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## tsrwivey

Reminds me of the 1929 Mercedes Benz kit car I helped my dad build as a kid. I loved riding in that thing.


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## haley4217

*Is China going to Implode? or Is this this the tigger event signs?*

There is another thread on the forum which I read about the same time as I read Bills post, which is partially quoted below. This got me to looking at two things China and the Dollar index. Here's the link to the forum thread about China for those who haven't followed it.

http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f4/hmmm-could-china-implode-19898/



BillS said:


> There are two recent developments to watch:
> The other thing to watch is the dollar index. The dollar is down 4% from its May 22nd high. The decline is the steepest one in the last year. If the dollar keeps dropping we're going to see some serious inflation. You'll be able to watch gas prices soar past $4 a gallon.


The very first interesting thing that I found is that the Dollar Index has basically become a less than useful stat when looking at the "health" of the USD$ in todays world. It is based against a basket of other currencies that have been given some arbitrary rationalizations to give a prospective on the USD$. The problem is that these are not correlated anyway to the trade that takes place between the US or any of these nations. The currencies include the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and the Swedish Krona. It does not include or take into consideration the Chinese Yuan, Russian Ruble or Brazilian Real even though the trade with and between these countries far outweighs some of the index currencies.

If you look at the Dollar Index between 2010 and today comparing starting point to ending point only, we see a growth of the index by 1.83%. But, look instead at some of the trading partners of the US and we see over the same time period USD$ as compared to Chinese Yuan -10.25%, Euro -4.64%, Mexican Peso - 2.0%, Canadian Dollar -2.0%. While there have been some strengths in the dollar, as compared to the Chinese Yuan the dollar lags far behind. The Chinese Yuan in the same time period grew 12.23% against the Euro, and 15.38% against the Japanese Yen (twice the growth of the USD$ against the Yen).

While the Dollar Index does provide some useful information and lets us look historically how the dollar is faring against European and North American currencies along with the impact that the currency manipulation by Japan on the USD$, it doesn't IMHO give us a look at the health of the USD$ as impacted by the major players in the currency war.

So, How does China play into the SHTF for the USD$? Let's continue that in the next post as it moves away from the Dollar Index issue.


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## haley4217

haley4217 said:


> There is another thread on the forum related to the impact that China may have on the US and whether they (China) will survive the economic event. Here's the link to the forum thread about China for those who haven't followed it.
> 
> http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f4/hmmm-could-china-implode-19898/
> 
> So, How does China play into the SHTF for the USD$? Let's continue that in the next post as it moves away from the Dollar Index issue.


OK, Now that I've got my tin foil hat on, here we go.

I believe that the SHTF event, like others, has already started. What I've looked at today was the changes in currencies in the past three years and how these may relate to trade issues and control over the Anchor Currency of the Global Reserve. I present for your consideration the following cast of characters and their position.

1. China - Large if not soon the be the largest economy in the world. Has the currency and presumably the physical gold to be a player in the fight for global reserve currency.
2. Hong Kong - Special Administrative Region of China. A major economic and monetary center for the world. Enough of a part of China that money and/or gold can flow through Hong Kong to China and be concealed.
3. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia - OIL!!!!!
4. European Union - Trading partner with China, consumes middle east oil, currently in trade disputes with China.
5. Japan - Also consumes middle east oil, also in trade and land disputes with China.
6. The United States - Has the dollar which is a reserve currency, sells dollars to China and others, is the pegged currency to the Hong Kong dollar and the Saudi Riyal.

So, now we know the players here's the plot, the sub-plot and the sub-sub-plot. China wants to see the Yuan placed as the Reserve Currency to replace the USD$. China wants to gain leverage against the European Union and Japan to help them (China) in their trade / land disputes with these entities. And finally, China would like to gain control of the oil trade by wrestling the dollar out of the coveted position of being the currency that oil is traded and priced in (AKA Petrodollar Warfare - Look it up it's interesting).

So, IMHO here's how its playing out.

China buys US debt which over a period of time continues to weaken the USD$ and as the US Debt rises place the position of the USD$ as Reserve Currency in crisis. China through there position with Hong Kong and a tremendous amount of Central Bank reserve currencies that they own, able to buy the US Debt not through the use of the Yuan but instead by the use of the Hong Kong Dollar which is pegged against the USD$ at a rate that is always between $7.75 to $7.85. What this means is that the maximum loss that they (China) would experience is 10% (the difference between the pegged 7.75 and 7.85) regardless of how bad the USD$ was to slide against the Yuan.

Meanwhile China expands their purchasing and supply of oil. You find that they have done this through expansion purchases and commitments from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Unlike the USD$, the Chinese Yuan has grown in value in oil producing nations over the past three years. (Kuwait +9%, Iraq +10%, Saudi Arabia +15%, Russia +14%). Add to this currency strength the fact that China is estimated to hold between 3,927 and 7,000 metric tons of physical gold, even though their official report is still showing on 1,024 metric tons.

And in a fashion appropriate to "The Art of War", the slide of the USD$ as compared to the Chinese Yuan has been gradual over the past three years. If compared to the growth of the Yuan against other currencies the growth of the Yuan against the dollar would not appear to be alarming, nefarious or suspicious.

Now, comes the sign.... As reported in the thread linked above, for the first time in 23 months China was only able to sell 9.53 billion Yuan out of the 15 billion Yuan target. The Agricultural Bank of China also was only able to sell 11.51 billion Yuan out of a 20 billion target. Yields also went up from 3.14 to 3.76. This appears to be the result of cash crunches and cash hording by banks who are becoming less and less willing to buy these debts.

So, is this a sign that as the dollar weakens even against the Yen that the next Fed auction may yield similar or even worse results. And if so, how will the market react to their beloved injection of cash into the system by the Fed being met not by cutbacks by the Fed but instead by markets not buying some or most of the US debt. Could China to the failure of a Fed auction by leading the way in not purchasing the debt with the basis that this is the state of the world economy based on their (China's) last auction.

And finally the outcome. A weakened dollar not only positions China with a Yuan that is generally stronger to more currencies than the dollar but also if they come forth with a more factual accounting of their actual physical gold holdings move themselves forward to take over as a gold backed Reserve Currency.

Having accomplished this they could then move on the oil market. As Saudi Arabia's Riyal is pegged to the USD$, when the USD$ slides off the edge then so goes any other currency that is pegged to it. As the Saudi's and others see their net worth sliding towards oblivion their new partner China steps in with plans to finance and price oil with a stable gold backed currency.


----------



## pandamonium

hiwall said:


> Do you think all the Washington scandals that are going on right now could be the first step to SHTF?
> I think this is just Obamalamadingdong getting caught trying to wipe his arse with the Constitution!! Mearly a distraction for the masses.
> 
> So Obama decided to arm the "rebels" in Syria and will likely start a "no-fly zone". Russia does not want a no-fly zone. Will this be the start of WW3?


 this is a possibility, I sure hope not. I know we must protect our interests abroad, but I also think Obama has NO CLUE about how to handle foriegn policy. He exudes incompetancy!!


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## Elinor0987

haley4217 said:


> So, is this a sign that as the dollar weakens even against the Yen that the next Fed auction may yield similar or even worse results. And if so, how will the market react to their beloved injection of cash into the system by the Fed being met not by cutbacks by the Fed but instead by markets not buying some or most of the US debt. Could China to the failure of a Fed auction by leading the way in not purchasing the debt with the basis that this is the state of the world economy based on their (China's) last auction.


Wouldn't the primary dealers step in and buy the treasuries that had no other buyers?

http://www.tooconservative.com/?p=6406


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## BillS

Elinor0987 said:


> Wouldn't the primary dealers step in and buy the treasuries that had no other buyers?
> 
> http://www.tooconservative.com/?p=6406


The Fed is the buyer of last resort and they buy the majority of Treasuries right now. There are few other buyers for Treasuries. The Fed lends banks money at close to zero interest rates. Those banks buy Treasury bills and make a profit on them. That's what's keeping the big banks going.

To put it another way, the official budget deficit is a trillion dollars. There's no way for the government to borrow that much so the Fed creates the money out of thin air.


----------



## BillS

haley4217 said:


> There is another thread on the forum which I read about the same time as I read Bills post, which is partially quoted below. This got me to looking at two things China and the Dollar index. Here's the link to the forum thread about China for those who haven't followed it.
> 
> http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f4/hmmm-could-china-implode-19898/
> 
> The very first interesting thing that I found is that the Dollar Index has basically become a less than useful stat when looking at the "health" of the USD$ in todays world. It is based against a basket of other currencies that have been given some arbitrary rationalizations to give a prospective on the USD$. The problem is that these are not correlated anyway to the trade that takes place between the US or any of these nations. The currencies include the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and the Swedish Krona. It does not include or take into consideration the Chinese Yuan, Russian Ruble or Brazilian Real even though the trade with and between these countries far outweighs some of the index currencies.
> 
> If you look at the Dollar Index between 2010 and today comparing starting point to ending point only, we see a growth of the index by 1.83%. But, look instead at some of the trading partners of the US and we see over the same time period USD$ as compared to Chinese Yuan -10.25%, Euro -4.64%, Mexican Peso - 2.0%, Canadian Dollar -2.0%. While there have been some strengths in the dollar, as compared to the Chinese Yuan the dollar lags far behind. The Chinese Yuan in the same time period grew 12.23% against the Euro, and 15.38% against the Japanese Yen (twice the growth of the USD$ against the Yen).
> 
> While the Dollar Index does provide some useful information and lets us look historically how the dollar is faring against European and North American currencies along with the impact that the currency manipulation by Japan on the USD$, it doesn't IMHO give us a look at the health of the USD$ as impacted by the major players in the currency war.
> 
> So, How does China play into the SHTF for the USD$? Let's continue that in the next post as it moves away from the Dollar Index issue.


I believe the US will go to war to prevent the end of the petrodollar system. Saddam Hussein was selling oil to the Europeans in euros and not in dollars. I think that's the real reason Bush invaded Iraq.

I believe Russia will side with China in that war. Countries like Saudi Arabia need a strong China before they switch oil currency systems.


----------



## TheLazyL

BillS said:


> The Fed is the buyer of last resort and they buy the majority of Treasuries right now. There are few other buyers for Treasuries. The Fed lends banks money at close to zero interest rates. Those banks buy Treasury bills and make a profit on them. That's what's keeping the big banks going.
> 
> To put it another way, the official budget deficit is a trillion dollars. There's no way for the government to borrow that much so the Fed creates the money out of thin air.


Fed loans money to banks so the banks can loan money to the Fed via Treasury notes?


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## BillS

TheLazyL said:


> Fed loans money to banks so the banks can loan money to the Fed via Treasury notes?


Not quite. The Fed lends them money so they can buy bonds from the Treasury. It makes their auctions look good too. They always have buyers. Even for 30 year bonds. Given our current deficits and the government's unwillingness to address them, would anyone in their right mind buy 30 year bonds?

Last I knew they could borrow as much as they want at 0.75%. Who knows, maybe they even have secret deals where they borrow the money for free. Nothing else is propping up the big banks. They have a ton of toxic mortgages. Due to changes in the law, the big banks don't have to show those toxic mortgages on their balance sheets.

I believe that in exchange the banks have agreed to not flood the markets with foreclosed properties.


----------



## hiwall

I believe in the last big bank "crack-down" bill that was passed by Congress also removed the 10% cash requirement that banks have had for many years.
The Fed has done a very good job of propping up the financial community and hence the USA. Unfortunately it was not a permanent fix and everything will still crash(the Fed just put it off for awhile). We can all only wonder when that crash/collapse will be.


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## pandamonium

BillS;26533 the Fed creates the money out of thin air.[/QUOTE said:


> Interesing post Bill, all true. The clip from your post that I quoted is true about our entire currency and economy!! Money backed by nothing but debt!! Any wonder the economy is so fragile??!!


----------



## partdeux

BillS said:


> Not quite. The Fed lends them money so they can buy bonds from the Treasury. It makes their auctions look good too. They always have buyers. Even for 30 year bonds. Given our current deficits and the government's unwillingness to address them, would anyone in their right mind buy 30 year bonds?
> 
> Last I knew they could borrow as much as they want at 0.75%. Who knows, maybe they even have secret deals where they borrow the money for free. Nothing else is propping up the big banks. They have a ton of toxic mortgages. Due to changes in the law, the big banks don't have to show those toxic mortgages on their balance sheets.
> 
> I believe that in exchange the banks have agreed to not flood the markets with foreclosed properties.


Bill, I wish I could find an excellent article published a couple of years ago.

Fed prints the money, which allows the govt to lend it out at essentially o% interest, however, the govt pays the fed 6% interest on the money the fed carries. Who owns the Fed, not the govt, but a private corp owned by big banks. Who benefits from the fed printing money for the govt?

Draw the circle


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## Elinor0987

BillS said:


> The Fed is the buyer of last resort and they buy the majority of Treasuries right now. There are few other buyers for Treasuries. The Fed lends banks money at close to zero interest rates. Those banks buy Treasury bills and make a profit on them. That's what's keeping the big banks going.
> 
> To put it another way, the official budget deficit is a trillion dollars. There's no way for the government to borrow that much so the Fed creates the money out of thin air.


Ok, I get it now! Primary dealers and the Federal Reserve bank are basically the same entity buying the treasuries but it creates the illusion of treasury demand when it isn't the Fed itself buying the bonds. I knew the banks were buying treasuries but didn't know they did it because they had to. That's why I ask these types of questions here. You all know more about the economy than I do. I think we're royally screwed on this one and the ball has started to roll on the dumping of the US dollar. Here's a piece from a Zero Hedge article posted today:



> Wholesale dumping of Treasuries by exasperated foreigners has already commenced. Private foreigners dumped $30.8 billion in Treasuries in April, an all-time record. Official holders got rid of $23.7 billion in long-term Treasury debt, the highest since November 2008, and $30.1 billion in short-term debt. Sell, sell, sell!


Here's the rest of the article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-06-18/biggest-bond-bubble-history-turning-carnage


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## LongRider

BillS said:


> I think now is a good time to dump all your stocks and liquidate your 401k. It's better to take it out now with a tax penalty than to lose all of it later. The stock market could have a major correction at almost any time now.
> 
> Given the expectation of a bank holiday, it would make sense to start keeping some of your cash at home.


IMO the time to liquidate most of your stocks has passed. Stock investment is simply not a money making proposition at this time and it may never be. IMO now is a good time to invest in property or tangible goods like ammo. No matter what you paid for you it you can bet it is not going down in price

In the case of a bank holiday, it is reasonable to expect that all your cash regardless of it is the bank or in a safe will most likely be worth pennies on the dollar. Historically bank holidays come about to restructure the value of currency and issuing new currency to replace the old based upon the restructure. As I said IMO investing in precious metals gold silver even copper is a fr better way to preserve what wealth you have. Keeping in mind precious metals are not an investment to grow wealth as much as it is a method of keeping the purchasing power of the wealth you do have. Of course keep your 1,2 or 3 month cash reserve on hand but beyond that any savings and long term cash should be in precious metals. You can keep a small amount of it in the back safe deposit boxes but most of it I would keep in the home safe stashed or buried


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## Aliaysonfire

Magus said:


> Much better.good stuff there!


I totally agree. I feel as if I'm in a philosophy forum- surrounded by some demi gods and plebeians. Lol. It's awe inspiring.


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## pandamonium

Aliaysonfire said:


> I totally agree. I feel as if I'm in a philosophy forum- surrounded by some demi gods and plebeians. Lol. It's awe inspiring.


Yup, there do be some smart cookies around here!


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## tinker

If you want to know when the SHTF just watch Europe. Financially they are more vulnerable and seem to herald what we may see economically. Their vulnerability I believe is due to socialized medicine, powerful unions, and better labor legislation. Like 3 months paternity leave and one year guaranteed return to employment for women who had a baby. Not to mention many months of pay. In France unions have destroyed manufacturing. 

Last year several countries in Europe, like Italy, stopped banks from allowing withdrawals greater than 1,000 Euro. You had to make an appointment to take out your cash. Therefore no runs on banks. Then they started with austerity measures...

If the US government protects the banks from customers withdrawing their own cash. Expect the austerity shoe to fall not much later. Then watch to see how fast people react and what the dollar does in the market. 

The US does not have great labor laws to help regular guys and gals. Labor laws insulated parts of Europe from people openly revolting, except Greece. Greeks owe more than they are worth and have a negative job index.

I would watch for unfriendly banking legislation to pass in congress. Then wait. If the troops come out not too soon after to keep the peace. Then worry.


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## BlueShoe

Europe's economic woes are caused by failed central bank policy just like America. Phony money. Printing phony money. The people didn't cause this at all. Has nothing to do with unions.


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## hiwall

> Europe's economic woes are caused by failed central bank policy just like America. Phony money. Printing phony money. The people didn't cause this at all. Has nothing to do with unions.


tenOC, you don't think over spending by the governments in Europe (which led to major debt) is a large part of their problems? I am certainly not an expert, I am just curious about the opinions of others.
I know in this country the partially unfunded (union) pensions in many states, counties, and cities are a major problem right now and in the near future. This is not really the unions fault at all but just very poor management in these gov entities.


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## BillS

partdeux said:


> Bill, I wish I could find an excellent article published a couple of years ago.
> 
> Fed prints the money, which allows the govt to lend it out at essentially o% interest, however, the govt pays the fed 6% interest on the money the fed carries. Who owns the Fed, not the govt, but a private corp owned by big banks. Who benefits from the fed printing money for the govt?
> 
> Draw the circle


I believe that the families that own the Fed have used the money to buy up the media and enough stock in enough big corporations to have a big influence on how they're run.


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## machinist

Yep. It's been going on for a long time. 40 years ago I read about interlocking directorships with big oil companies and banks, and the same tribe were also all members of certain political organizations, like the Trilateral Commission. People like Rockefeller were into all those things. 

This is not new. We are just seeing the end game they had planned for generations. All you can do is learn to be self supporting. That's something a lot of folks will soon be wishing they knew, if they aren't already needing it.

I've lived with big unions most of my life and saw what they did to companies who let them get the upper hand, but the company management made enough bone headed blunders that it is hard to attribute all the misery to one thing. And, without the unions to fight it, the companies would have continued to make life miserable for labor, too. Read the history of Kentucky coal mining for an example, right on up to modern day sweat shops using illegal immigrant labor. There is enough blame to go around to many parties and factors. What I see is the confluence of worse weather, major govt and private debts, overpopulation, energy becoming more expensive, lack of leadership, Ponzi schemes, corruption, lack of any sort of morality in high places, etcetera, ad nauseum. I don't see any way to save it all now. It's just too sick to heal. Nor can I tell where the panic starts for certain, but economics is a real front runner at this time.

The cost of food is something to watch carefully now. We have had a weather cycle going on that produces drought in the US Grain Belt, along with many disastrous storms. Water levels in aquifers for crop irrigation have been dropping for a long time in the Great Plains states. World population is outrageously high, and they are all hungry. All major countries seem to be inflating their currencies because they are too far in debt, making food prices rise. The US is making alcohol from corn for fuel, driving up the cost of corn--pun intended. Now THAT is really smart! Use FOOD to fuel that guzzling SUV to go to the Mall and pay ever higher prices for groceries! Duh.

We are SOOO screwed.


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## BlueShoe

My previous comment was a bit spastic. I was on my way to work. Overspending is most definitely a lot of the problem. But the go vern pensions/unions would probably be completely solvent if they phony money were real money AND if the con games Wall Street and the f3d pulled weren't allowed to happen. 
Even those pensions given in excess wouldn't have the overhang if we used a (1) a real currency, and (2) didn't allow banks to cook our books...that includes the phony f3d reserve too. There is no way to win when you don't control any of the game pieces. We ARE the game pieces here and in Europe.

This post is a bit spastic too. I don't think we disagree on the result and that it's planned and played out for profit from those we know who are controlling the monies in the world, but my point is that the unions and pensions are secondary and wouldn't cause this situation we're all experiencing. That's talk show stuff. No, we probably can't afford the pensions now that the goose is dead, but they didn't put this nation 17 trillion in debt and didn't put Europe in debt. Central banks created the bubble and corporations vampired people by rebundling junk as AAA to sell to pension funds as good quality. A trillion disappeared over nigt in the USA alone. SS is still solvent on the books if the money hadn't been taken for wars and private contractors to build war machines. 

It's not funny to hear news outlets claim the banks paid us back. Did they really? No. They might have paid the bail out back, but not the money they stole in lost equity through outright theft, nor the loss in income for those who lost their jobs and quality of life, stagnant economy, Stimulus added to the National Debt. If you let someone cheat and steal us blind and then bail them out of their fraudulent practices, let them pay us back the bail out, what lesson did we teach them when nobody goes to jail?


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