# The phasing of SHTF - My cut at it.



## FrankW

*The phasing of a society's Collapse - My cut at it.*

I often see folks arguing over what to do "during SHTF" and often they are all correct even though they worry about different things due to thinking about different aspects of surviving a collapse.
This is often due to thinking about a different timeline.

So I see timeline of (attempted?) survival may best be understood as occurring in 3 broad stroke phases:

- *Phase 1 *SHTF has started but in away thats not yet provoking the population at large to react yet.

In phase 1 of a major pandemic (just as an example) power may still be on... gasoline may still be available, but hospitals are full and infection spreading., maybe schools closed.. The population at large will stay where they are and try to maintain jobs as long as possible. They usually have nowhere to go anyway.
Preppers will start to retrograde to their BOL (if they have them and not living there already) or making final preparations if they live at the BOL .

Or in a grid down situation (again just as an example) in phase 1 the bulk of the population may still be waiting for the power to come back on.. 
But preppers would be bugging out.

So in summary Phase 1 is a time where the start of of a quick slide is obvious to some but not to all, a sense of moderate normalcy is still had by most .....police still operates and road travel is still possible without firearms.
I would say this phase could as short as a couple of days days (grid down) or a slong as a few weeks (pandemic). (I am deliberately excluding a economic slide because that can take decades and doesnt meet what we are trying to describe

So in phase 1 of a collapse preppers will be enroute to their BOL or if living in the BOL buying their last supplies before hunkering down.

In this phase travel by vehicle in the may still be possible in the country without excessive risk (given proper armed precautions and a bit of stored gas) . Some small degree of police coverage may also still exist.

-*Phase 2* will be the highest physical threat phase.

This phase will be marked by the population centers emptying themselves.. and millions of people are on the march to "the countryside" or "the hills" where they feel they may be able to survive.
. 
And the nice friendly family father you chatted with at a rest stop 100 miles away a couple months ago, will now be a raving beast willing to kill anyone who stands in the way of feeding his family....

Some guys banding together may form dangerous but small gangs who may act collectively.

(though they are likely poorly trained... and the groups wont be very large as feeding a large group via scavenging is near impossible.... the ex-military trained or led 200 member biker gangs so beloved of novelists may never materialize in our county..even in this phase.... especially as bikes too need gas and if such large groups ever do exist they can be expected to invariably break up eventually since in order to feed a large group via scavenging you need to cover distance.. impossible w/o a reliable gas source...so there is a physical ceiling for group marauder size in a collapse and its not a high ceiling... especially for mobile groups not possessing a reliable source of stored food....)

Those large populations are now fanned out from the cities... out over the countryside and "into the hills".. No matter how tucked away in the hills ...many starving people will come find us in this phase.....and by this point many of them will be armed in some fashion....

Even though numbers may be attritted already there will still be a LOT of them potentially overwhelming poorly armed or trained homesteads.

Another marker of phase 2 is any semblance of collective security as provided by police/gov't will have broken down completely (no more gas for police cruisers etc) and police cannot be relied on in any way to do anything positive.

But on the whole this phase will be marked by the greatest threat of physical violence to us and the nicer homesteads with plenty of animals can expect frequent shoot outs and near daily/nightly attempts at our animals almost right away.
Eventually even the less supplied retreats can expect frequent attacks from starving people.

Luckily preppers should still be able to still operate 100% on stored food at this time making our tactical burden more manageable.. as we can afford to (and likely must) focus on that threat as no one will be able to perform agriculture...
Going out with a tractor or a horse drawn plow on the field would immediately unleash hordes of starving people from the bushes that will kill you to eat your horse or take your fuel.

With so many people still alive but starving security will be everything.

Expect some retreats to have changed owners after phase two.

This phase will likely last _many_ months and phase 2 is essentially that by now everyone has figured out collapse is happening but _most are still alive and _ fighting for survival.

3) *Phase 3* will be marked by the disappearance via starvation of most unprepped people..

In other words.. the industrial society that existed before.. allowed for many more people to be supported than after a collapse. A collapse of society will also mean the collapse of the ability to feed a lot of people.
When the population number have collapsed due to starvation and violence to a point where the much reduced size of the population now matches the resources of food production.. then you have entered Phase 3.

This will GREATLY diminish the constant threat .........and firefights should be very rare at this point ...(even though retreats perceived as week may still be victimized by other less scrupulous folks)

Agriculture will have started up again to the extent capable to feed the now much reduced population.. the disappearance of the starving masses will make it finally possible to till a field with a horse without being attacked by 100 starving people wanting to eat your horse. 
IMO that is a key marker of Phase 3.
Food production is possible again on a larger scale due to diminished violence has the great majority of the population had died.

Via fair trade one might even cross level some specific specialized supplies or skills.

Again those retreats without enough boots-on-the-ground or too little ammo or too untrained in use of modern firearms.. will likely have changed owners during phase 2.

A just moderately competent group can overtake almost any retreat that doesn't not have proper security at night.... with little difficulty even if the attackers are not many..

....in many cases they will have simply taken over a retreat in a surprise attack at night and killed most of its inhabitants likely sparing only very few ......the young women as non threats will almost certainly be kept and may even adapt into relatively loyal members of the "new" retreat , (Stockholm syndrome as a common survival mechanism) especially once they had children from the attackers...,

.. look for society becoming much more medieval in culture as medieval society was adapted to a low resource pastoral lifestyle+ plus violence)

So in summary the final and only stable phase, Phase 3 will be marked by a roughly functioning society that has found a balance between the number of people alive and the ability to work the land via reduced efficiency in grid down. 
Its hard to say what timeline might be
...

I think the fundamental reason folks on internet often argue what the best survival strategy is after a collapse , is they are all thinking about different phases of a collapse as the SHTF based on the novels they read the most.

PS: I do Disaster Analysis for a living.


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## SewingMachine

Interesting thoughts.

I have been listening to Mind4Survival, podcast by ex SF and security professionals. They seem to agree with you.

A fried of mine was employed for a time by a D.C. "think tank" where he helped develop responses to infectious outbreaks in major cities. While he would not disclose any specifics, he did say that there was a threshold that once crossed would bring a response that consisted of quarantining that city off. By any means necessary. That absolutely included, according to him, Humvee's and road blocks firing into anyone trying to leave. Understand, we are talking about a response to a disease the government believes holds a true threat of really, really hurting the country.

But there it is. They will shoot people. People will be trapped. Aid will be dropped in, to be fought over I would imagine. A real worst case scenario.

Where does he live now? Far out in the boonies, surrounded by state park land, miles from any city. With a long drive, and good firing lines. There has to be a reason he chose that location.

Me? I'm right at the edge of town, and I have some routes pre planned. But the fam is not on board. I have a lot of work to do, and for the first time, I feel a certain urgency.

I would like to be prepared for just phase 1!


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## FrankW

SewingMachine said:


> 1)A fried of mine was employed for a time by a D.C. "think tank" where he helped develop responses to infectious outbreaks in major cities.
> 
> 2)I would like to be prepared for just phase 1!


1) We may work at the same place

2) Extra jugs of gas to get out of town, a _reliable_ vehicle and knowledge of local roads.


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## terri9630

BlueZ said:


> 1) We may work at the same place
> 
> 2) Extra jugs of gas to get out of town, a _reliable_ vehicle and knowledge of local roads.


Because of the mountains there are only 2 ways to get to our new place. One requires going through 2 towns/cities before we can get off the highway and interstate the other goes through 5 or so small towns and it is considered a "back road". Both are the same distance and take half a tank of fuel. We will have to head out as early as possible to avoid trouble.


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## Tirediron

I don't disagree with any of the above, but I doubt that many City people would actually head for the country, most think the food just magically appears in stores and would have no idea how to survive in a garden of ripe vegetables. some might leave, I don't know :dunno:


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## FrankW

Tirediron said:


> I don't disagree with any of the above, but I doubt that many City people would actually head for the country, most think the food just magically appears in stores and would have no idea how to survive in a garden of ripe vegetables. some might leave, I don't know :dunno:


When most folks in the population centers head out due to lack of water + food thats when we know phase 1 is over


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## Starcreek

BlueZ said:


> 1) We may work at the same place
> 
> 2) Extra jugs of gas to get out of town, a _reliable_ vehicle and knowledge of local roads.


And tools. Make sure your vehicle has some essential tools and replacement parts, because all the gas in the world won't help if you can't move because the car broke down.


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## Starcreek

Tirediron said:


> I don't disagree with any of the above, but I doubt that many City people would actually head for the country, most think the food just magically appears in stores and would have no idea how to survive in a garden of ripe vegetables. some might leave, I don't know :dunno:


If you know how to find edible plants in your surrounding countryside and plant "edible landscaping" that the typical city dweller would not recognize as food, you will always have something to eat.

The Native Americans used to put up acorns in silos woven of tree branches and used them for flour through the winter. It's a good source of fat for the lean times.

If you plant potatoes at the edge of your yard, all the stranger from the city would see is a patch of weeds.

There are ways to keep the land producing food for your family without attracting undue attention. You won't get fat on it, but you can survive.


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## tmttactical

I totally agree with the scenario. The first phase is going to be the flashing warning light to get out of dodge or get forted up. If you have not already designed and / or implemented your defensive security, start planning now. It is going to take a lot of planning and a fair amount of money to setup a solid defensive system. Locked doors and windows are not going to make it. The bad guys need to be spotted and stopped before they get to your front door. JMO


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## Starcreek

Phase one is a narrow window of opportunity. I remember 9/11. For the first 2 days, EVERYBODY stayed glued to their TV set! When a major catastrophe sets in the average American will be frozen in place for a short period, maybe 1-2 days. THAT is the prepper's "opportunity." That's when you need to get done whatever remains to get done.... Bug out, if you plan to; top off the gas tanks and pick up some extra motor oil; hit the cheap-o grocery store for another load of canned foods; buy whatever ammo Wally World has in stock.

That window of opportunity is a target we should all keep in mind, because it will put us light years ahead of everybody else in getting ready for what comes after the "lull before the storm."

One other thing: Some months ago I sat down with a young man in our family who is a junior manager at the local store of a national pharmacy chain and asked him, "If the power went off and didn't come back on, what would you do at your store?" Apparently, either they had trained him for this scenario or he had gone through it in his mind, because he didn't hesitate, but went through, step-by-step exactly what they, as management, would do at their store on Day One, Day 2, and Day 3. It was very informative. Everybody should take advantage of KNOWLEDGE of those around us, to get a multi-faceted picture of what shtf can look like. Ask people you know well, "What would YOU do, at your business, or as a first-responder, or ----- (fill in the blank), if tshtf?" Get their take on their small microcosm, and remember it.


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## SewingMachine

I have a day off work, so I sat the Wife down and started discussing what we would do in an emergency with one kid in Illinois (3 hours south) one kid in college (2 hours north) and one kid in high school (complete mess on a good day to pick her up).

She starts with "why worry about it? You can't plan for those things, we would just have to deal with it when it happens."

I will try to get her to read the OP, and see that yes, normal people do plan for these things. Or at least try to.

I have two routes out of town going north that would be good to go. Going south would require a major detour west before heading south. So I have to plan for that 3 hour trip to be 5 hours, or even a day. I will talk to my son and let him know.

This was a good subject, got me thinking about some things, and taking steps to see just where I would be phase 1.


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## FrankW

Sewing+starcreek:

Good thinking.
Phase one is your (shrinking) window of opportunity to still get critical things done (like collecting the Fam)

Once the bulk of the population has figured out they are in a collapse scenario you will transtion to Phase 2 which will make travel near impossible as roads will be parking lots in traffic jams that may NEVER clear up.

Why never?
Easy, after a few hours some folks in the traffic jam, will leave their vehicle to use bathroom or get water or because they ran out of gas so AC/Heat is no longer working.
They will take their keys with them.
Once that happens to just a very tiny fraction of vehicles all movement will stop.
Do not be caught in a interstate parking lot.
In a phase 1 that has transitioned to phase two this may effectively be a death sentence when 2nd and 3rd order effects are considered.


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## hiwall

BlueZ, your guess as to the possible turn of events is just as good as anyone else's. 
I see it as being totally plausible. The only thing (which you hit on) is that any SHTF situation would play out in its own fashion and certainly be not likely to follow any rule book. We can all read articles such as what you wrote and remember that to hopefully prod us all into maybe doing the right things in the correct order if SHTF ever happens. Good job putting it down in words.


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## SewingMachine

I'm not sure about her kids. She has two. I have one, in Illinois.

My son could just walk across the bridge and about a half hour and be at my friends farm, where there are three grown men, two of them fine shooters, and several other lifetime friends a few minutes away, and lots of rifles and ammo and stockpiled food and an above ground gas tank and all the things to warm a preppers heart. He is probably good to go.

Her kids? Boy, I dunno.

The boy might be able to drive back here. I would rather we all went down to Illinois. I can get gas, and carry it on top of the explorer. Just need a bit of warning. Or I would siphon if need be, but only as a last resort.

I just don't trust them, I guess. The wife would freak out, the boy might keep his shit together, the daughter would probably refuse to leave, thinking everything will get better in a few days. Hard to say.

I ask every now and then. Its a non-issue in their minds. Tough nut to crack.


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## Flight1630

I get all my info by watching 'the walking dead'. Lol not really but it sounds good. Lol


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## FrankW

hiwall said:


> BlueZ, your guess as to the possible turn of events is just as good as anyone else's.


Sir it's not about predicting a certain scenario (even though I feel those 2 examples are among our most plausible to wreak short term havoc) but about 
the process of "SHTF" that should be common to the vast majority of Collapse mechanisms.

Once we analyze what most collapse drivers will have in common, we can then leverage that understanding to inform our Course-of-Action development.artydance:


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## tmttactical

I have tried to convince wife's kids that a SHTF event can and will happen. They Poo poo the concept, so I have written them off. Great adults but blind to the bad side of events. They have a belief the government will take care of the trouble mindset. 

My son's are more receptive. Number 1 son is involved in the "Tin Hat House" project and number 2 son is receptive, just does no know how to fit it in their life style. I am working on that aspect by designing the house to not only be off grid but also provide a means to earn a living without plowing the south forty, which neither son want to do.

Sometimes you have to face the reality of losing family members. You can't risk some family members to try and save those that refused to consider the possibilities. It will become a case of save those you can and deal with the future threats. Harsh but fact. JMO


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## hashbrown

I don't see a mass exodus from the cities. Take the Great Depression for example, did folks head to the country? That answer would be no. Even if a small percentage do I cant see them making it very far being starved and drinking ditch water. Most will wait until it's too late waiting on the government to save them. 
In my opinion the op doesn't have any idea about people that are deeply rooted in the rural areas by describing the poorly armed homesteads the way he did. Most people living in those areas are very well armed and shoot shit all the time anyway. March that herd through this part of the Ozarks and see how well their raiding goes. The hollars will be stacked with dead bodies. :rofl:


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## FrankW

hashbrown said:


> 1) I don't see a mass exodus from the cities.
> 
> 2)Take the Great Depression for example, did folks head to the country? That answer would be no.
> 
> 3)Most will wait until it's too late waiting on the government to save them.
> 
> 4) March that herd through this part of the Ozarks and see how well their raiding goes. The hollars will be stacked with dead bodies. :rofl:


1) When there is no food /water people will leave trying not to die. Its human nature.

2) I respectfully submit you did not understand the post. There was no societal Collapse during the depression which is why it is completely unsuitable for comparison. ..Water, electricity and services remained on in the cities as did Soup kitchens.
And law Enforcement kept functioning at 100%.
That's not even including the sense of entitlement that has been purposefully engineering into some youth by a mass media that is trying to assist the left with political fire support for entitlement programs.
This has lead to incredible violence even when folks have full bellies and the Nintendo's are still working..... try to image a lights out and those same people starving, what do you think will happen then?

3) that was my point about Phase 1.

4) Again I respectfully submit you did not understand the post. Phase 2 describes a phased "threat level" resulting from a broadly predictable chain of events...and it is not judging people's level of combat power (or lack thereof).

However I did point out (accurately most would agree) that poorly armed or poorly manned or poorly trained homesteads may easily change owners in Phase two and some likely will.

Your level of preparedness and that of your neighbors may be very high. I dont know.. 
Or perhaps you feel safe since your location is very much out of the way from anywhere.. if so Congrats.

But if I were to speculate based on your response to this basic analysis I am unconvinced.

The following questions are in no way a personal attack but a little nudge to think things through:

When was the last time you took a modern Carbine course? If you run less than a couple thousand rounds a year during training (not plinking!) through your AR15 or AK you are almost certainly not properly trained.

How about a First Aid course Do you have someone in your retreat who has taken one in the past year?
I am ex Army of many years and I still train hard at least twice a month.
Do you have at least one guy like that helping you man your retreat?

Do you have enough people for a 24 hours security coverage?

If the answer is "no" to _any one_ of those questions Phase two may surpise you with how difficult a time it can be..

If so you may be well advised to "double up" or triple up with a neighboring homestead.
This is a time honored method when two or more families congregate in the best built retreat in the neighborhood to improve security via numbers and create the ability to man a 24 hr security presence.

My BOL has good food sustainability features.. but is struggling with numbers ... We try to make up for it by being very well trained in the skill of Arms. 
All our adult males attend at least 1 but often 2,3 or even 4 professional courses of Combat rifle instruction every year and we equip ourselves quite well with modern firearms, carry rigs, modern sights , a large cache of rifle ammunition and live-fire train with them often.

Another part of that preparation is understanding our most likely future Operational Environment and the chain of events leading it so we can inform our course-of-action development.
This includes identifying choke points, how many days past SHTF-"trigger" we may realistically have until need to switch on 24 hr Ops..(which takes up man hours that could be spent on building barricades, an extra log hut etc), which avenues of approach we must surveil 100%, which ones (due to noisiness of approach) may not need 24 hr coverage etc etc

respectfully

BlueZ


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## CrackbottomLouis

I dont think its a bad asessment. City folks trying to leave and raid/theive will have a lot of surprises in store when they reach true country but sheer numbers will be in their favor in the suburbs.


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## Starcreek

hashbrown said:


> I don't see a mass exodus from the cities. Take the Great Depression for example, did folks head to the country?


People went home.

My mom's family went from central Florida to north Georgia to live on her grandfather's 100-acre farm. And that's where they waited it out.

After 9/11, there was a mass exodus of people HOME. They went to be with their family.

Things are somewhat different now than in the 1920s -- not as many people live on functioning farms as then.

I believe the vast number of city dwellers will stay right where they are, hoping to wait out the emergency, or wait until the government sends supplies. The inner city poor will likely eat each other alive, like they did in the dome in New Orleans after Katrina. The smart ones will leave as soon as it becomes apparent there is a crisis.

One HUGE problem with being in the city when the shtf is the interstate highways. Most big cities are dependent upon a network of interstate highways to get traffic in and out of the heart of town. They usually have a "bypass" that circles the city.

In recent years, those multi-lane highways have become fenced and walled on both sides, usually with a steel cable or concrete barrier down the middle. There IS no turning around or getting off the designated roadway. If traffic stops, you stop with it.

Plus, I noticed the last time we lived in the city (about 4 years ago), they were redoing all the traffic lights to be managed through a central hub downtown. They can switch the lights on, off, blinking -- anything they want to control the traffic. If those in charge don't want people to leave the city, or they want to route traffic a certain way, it's all point and click.

No prepper should live in a city. Period.


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## hiwall

BlueZ said:


> Once we analyze what most collapse drivers will have in common, we can then leverage that understanding to inform our Course-of-Action development.artydance:


So in other words you guess.
I am not really disagreeing with your guess and it might work out just the way you say. But no matter the fancy terms and words that might be used by anyone when they are talking about a never seen before future event--it all boils down to a guess. There is no history to look back on and say 'see this is what they did.' So when you say it can not reliably be compared to the Great Depression I agree, it is not the same thing and many factors are way different now than they were then.
I make my living writing apocalyptic fiction and use many different scenarios. And even though they are fiction does not mean they won't ever come true. No one can see the future and no one can say what people will do when faced with something completely new.


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## crabapple

Starcreek said:


> And tools. Make sure your vehicle has some essential tools and replacement parts, because all the gas in the world won't help if you can't move because the car broke down.


Maybe an off the grid solar house with hook up for a VOLT or some other electric car.
Still need tools & car parts, but no gas.
Corn will get ethanol or moonshine.
We could fall back to the steam engine, if one had a black smith shop & some plate steel.


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## Flight1630

crabapple said:


> Maybe an off the grid solar house with hook up for a VOLT or some other electric car.
> Still need tools & car parts, but no gas.
> Corn will get ethanol or moonshine.
> We could fall back to the steam engine, if one had a black smith shop & some plate steel.


Hear is an old technology 
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/11/gas-bag-vehicles.html
And even older (I think)
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/01/wood-gas-cars.html


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## AmishHeart

Hiwall...what have you written?


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## hashbrown

BlueZ said:


> 1) When there is no food /water people will leave trying not to die. Its human nature.
> 
> 2) I respectfully submit you did not understand the post. There was no societal Collapse during the depression which is why it is completely unsuitable for comparison. ..Water, electricity and services remained on in the cities as did Soup kitchens.
> And law Enforcement kept functioning at 100%.
> That's not even including the sense of entitlement that has been purposefully engineering into some youth by a mass media that is trying to assist the left with political fire support for entitlement programs.
> This has lead to incredible violence even when folks have full bellies and the Nintendo's are still working..... try to image a lights out and those same people starving, what do you think will happen then?
> 
> 3) that was my point about Phase 1.
> 
> 4) Again I respectfully submit you did not understand the post. Phase 2 describes a phased "threat level" resulting from a broadly predictable chain of events...and it is not judging people's level of combat power (or lack thereof).
> 
> However I did point out (accurately most would agree) that poorly armed or poorly manned or poorly trained homesteads may easily change owners in Phase two and some likely will.
> 
> Your level of preparedness and that of your neighbors may be very high. I dont know..
> Or perhaps you feel safe since your location is very much out of the way from anywhere.. if so Congrats.
> 
> But if I were to speculate based on your response to this basic analysis I am unconvinced.
> 
> The following questions are in no way a personal attack but a little nudge to think things through:
> 
> When was the last time you took a modern Carbine course? If you run less than a couple thousand rounds a year during training (not plinking!) through your AR15 or AK you are almost certainly not properly trained.
> 
> How about a First Aid course Do you have someone in your retreat who has taken one in the past year?
> I am ex Army of many years and I still train hard at least twice a month.
> Do you have at least one guy like that helping you man your retreat?
> 
> Do you have enough people for a 24 hours security coverage?
> 
> If the answer is "no" to _any one_ of those questions Phase two may surpise you with how difficult a time it can be..
> 
> If so you may be well advised to "double up" or triple up with a neighboring homestead.
> This is a time honored method when two or more families congregate in the best built retreat in the neighborhood to improve security via numbers and create the ability to man a 24 hr security presence.
> 
> My BOL has good food sustainability features.. but is struggling with numbers ... We try to make up for it by being very well trained in the skill of Arms.
> All our adult males attend at least 1 but often 2,3 or even 4 professional courses of Combat rifle instruction every year and we equip ourselves quite well with modern firearms, carry rigs, modern sights , a large cache of rifle ammunition and live-fire train with them often.
> 
> Another part of that preparation is understanding our most likely future Operational Environment and the chain of events leading it so we can inform our course-of-action development.
> This includes identifying choke points, how many days past SHTF-"trigger" we may realistically have until need to switch on 24 hr Ops..(which takes up man hours that could be spent on building barricades, an extra log hut etc), which avenues of approach we must surveil 100%, which ones (due to noisiness of approach) may not need 24 hr coverage etc etc
> 
> respectfully
> 
> BlueZ


 When you live on "bol" and when your family has been in the same area over 150 years and you know every spring, cave, blackberry patch and a rock you can pull a catfish out from under any day of the week within 50 miles you can "nudge" me. What most people don't understand is you just don't show with your AR and some seeds and survive. Your bol will be like a foreign land if you're not living on it. Type away with your ideas my friend we will live ours.

Respectfully


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## hiwall

AmishHeart said:


> Hiwall...what have you written?


You can see a sample in the stories section


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## FrankW

hiwall said:


> 1) So in other words you guess.
> I am not really disagreeing with your guess and it might work out just the way you say.
> 2) But no matter the fancy terms and words that might be used by anyone when they are talking about a never seen before future event--it all boils down to a guess.
> 3) There is no history to look back on and say 'see this is what they did.'
> 4) I make my living writing apocalyptic fiction and use many different scenarios. And even though they are fiction does not mean they won't ever come true. No one can see the future and no one can say what people will do when faced with something completely new.


1) Sir, allow me to debate this with you in a spirit of mutual respect...:wave:

. this is not about scenario development or "guessing" because its not specific to any one scenario.. It's about 2+2=4. like developing a threat matrix.
"Guessing " is when you predict the nature of the trigger. That is not what is happening here.

let's take this example:
When a worn-down german infantry battalion is holding a town in 1945 and two soviet brigade come at is it a guess what will happen because "no one can predict the future"?

No we all know what will happen.. They only unknowns are how much casualties they will be able to inflict on their enemies before they lose... how many casualties will they suffer themselves. and whether they decide to Die in place trying to protect the people from the ensuing massacres or if they decide to protect the remaining force and withdraw in good order after inflicting X number of casualties on the soviets.

(This example is not meant to be a message preppers will lose or some such nonsense you often see on the internet its just an example of a predictable chain of events I think most readers can relate to)
Just like here. we can develop a general timeline of events the details will be up to a future history.
No one is trying to predict details.

But the broad strokes of a overpopulated society like ours collapsing are really just a 2+2=4

The individuals involved and exact hours or the trigger all cannot be predicted... But what happens after that is a matter of action and reaction that is predictable if one applies rigorous analysis.

Remember the brilliant essay "When the music stops" by Matt Bracken? 
He did a similar logical event chain development. Since he went into more detail than I did he assumed more risk... But I think his analysis is sound and PPL ought to use it as a planning tool.

An analysis is not a guess but a tool for decision making.

What I wrote really is not very speculative or earth shaking..just describing common sense process.. that will apply to the most likely triggers most prep for.

2) its true I had a bit of fun with the lingo.. but an analysis is not the same as a "guess" .. For example when you read the most recent "Joint Operational Environment" document. Its an analysis not a guess. Even thought the JOE covers a MUCH more complex problem so its also a MUCH more challenging analysis ( and assumes more risk. since previous JOE have done a poor job taking into consideration 2nd and 3rd order effect but I will not bother with that right now I dont feel like writing all that)

Are you suggesting people will passively stay in the cities to slowly starve or die of thirst?
Is that a guess that they will not?
Or are you suggesting when they leave they will ask nicely for what others have in order to stay alive?
is it a guess to say they will not?
Or are you suggesting the haves (homesteads etc) will be able to defend themselves with nice words?
Or are you suggesting the current carrying capacity of the land can be maintained in a collapse situation in the absence of fertilizer distribution and fuel distro ( and production) etc etc? (Phase 2)

Or finally Do you suggest that when food resources and population are back in balance (after the people in excess of carrying capacity have died off) that now able bodied workers will still not be able to produce food? An item everyone needs and wants? (Phase 3)

In the 19th century the US population was a small fraction of what it is now. The industrial revolution and the green revolution have abollowed us to feed 10 times as many people as back then. 
When a collapse takes that away will the remaining 90% that are now "excess" nearly all of which live in densely populated urban and suburban areas.. will they just passively stay in place to die?
Especially when sections of them have been conditioned by the media to believe they are victims and are "owed" things?

3) There are tons of examples in human history of when the carrying capacity of the land dropped, whether by drought or by invasion that people would move and take other peoples stuff to survive.
Example can be found plenty in the ancient americas, Africa, the "Voelkerwandering" in Europe, everywhere really .. None of this is new this are all very well established behaviour patterns.

4) I have enjoyed your fiction in the past and found it plausible.

But again with the "guessing".. allow me to respectfully harp on this point 

Do you really think it cannot be predicted when a man's family is starving and you have food that he will try to take whats yours by force?
is that a "guess"?
Or about some people who have been told by their political leadership for decades that they are victims and who play games with attacking others when they bellies are full and all is well that they will not do more of same when released from the bonds of policing?
Is that a guess?

We have to get away as a community from throwing up our hands in the air as if things can't be analyzed.
They can.
And we would be foolish not to allow this to inform our course of action development.

And this is the point.
I know some people who say "I will just focus on my homesteading and I will be fine"

And thats true in any situation where the rule of law still mostly exists.
but most of our plausible scenarios result in a complete collapse at some point.
Pretty much anything that brings down the grid.. and there are a LOT of things that can do that that have nothing to do w/ EMP or direct attacks on the grid.

And when that happens you can develop a timeline of what will broadly happen.
And someone with a nice homestead but a limited ability to defend themselves will likely end up as a grocery store for others.
Thats not rocket science or black magic crystal ball, it's logic.

Starving people is "not reacting when being faced with something new" we all know what happens when the have-nots (in our case likely refugees out of now uninhabitable population centers) encounter the "haves" (rural homesteaders, preppers, etc) etc.
This has happend many times in human history.
I am not suggesting the huge armed and competent motorized hordes so beloved of dramatic fiction. There are too many logical limitations on that for me to go into here,... but our most likely and logical threat is large numbers of starving people many of them armed and desperate to do anything coming into your BOLs area (or your area, period, if you are lucky enough to live in your BOL)

The primary thing that cannot be predicted are the details of individual outcomes.
And thats what we are trying to influence by prepping.artydance:

None of this is hard.
We know pretty much exactly what will happen in a sudden societal collapse.
Not the details they are unpredictable.. but the broad strokes.
that part is easy.

PS: Excuse my typos and I am sure at times a bit chaotic writing.. I hope I was able to communicate my points successfully. :wave:


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## Meerkat

I would not want to live in the city in a shtf period. But then we also have to consider our community and if it is ready for shtf period too. 

Also if I were younger I consider a boat. Lots of little hide-a-ways around small islands.


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## mommahen10

In any Scenario the time of year must also be taking into account, for bugging out purposes as well as what the rest of the people will do. If it's winter or fall in the north half of the USA I think people are going to try to head South, If it's spring or summer they will spread out trying to find food and water, and probably head South as the weather cools in the fall, unless they have a way to keep warm.


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## Meerkat

We would travel in the Intercoastal waters mostly and the safer places along the USA shores if we had a boat. And that is not totally out of the question even at our age. If we had the right " SMALL " setup. With desaltcater and a small garden onboard. Maybe even a couple hens.


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## cqp33

I think at first most in the city will try to get out, then retreat back to the safety of the city because that is where they feel at home. Some will leave and keep going but the masses I think will (at least for the first few weeks) think the gubberment is going to help them. 

I heard it said that living on your BOL is almost a must! I agree with that and here is why (We do live on ours):
1. It takes years to get an orchard producing.
2. Sometimes it takes years to get soil amended to produce even a decent garden.
3. Doing a lot of the work without a tractor/power tools will be difficult if not impossible (think manpower)
4. Learning everything about the land around you, berry patches, choke points, water springs, etc takes years and years!
5. Fences for live stock, etc....
6. Barns
7. Stockpile feed for said livestock
8. Create a stockpile of food to survive phase 1
9. Develop relationships with your BOL neighbors so you can collectively protect your BOL's

Good thought provoking thread though. Not sure if anyone can say anyone else is right or wrong because for the most part it is just ones persons view and I can respect that. It may go straight to phase II in 24 hours, problem is no one knows....ONE CAN ONLY BE PREPARED!


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## readytogo

Wow everybody talks about shtf events and the city people dying in droves like if they were ignorant or something, the Plague ,WW 1 ,WW 2 ,events that killed billions ,and humanity still here , tornado alley gets hit every year, the big earthquake in California ,Andrew in Miami 92 wipe a big section of town ,the Atomic bomb in Japan,the Nuclear reactor's incidents around the World ,and humankind is still around but many still talk about people in the cities dying in droves or killing each others for a bucket of water, like nothing ever happens in the country side. People should read a little more about their countries history a little more and learn something about shtf moments and people .Farmers failure to understand the weather ,failure to rotated crops and over planting led to the Great Dust Bowl and the largest migration in American history within a short period of time. Between 1930 and 1940, approximately 3.5 million people moved out of the Plains states; of those, it is unknown how many moved to California. Farmers moving to the cities in a shtf situation ,Wow. So like a herd of animals migrating in the plains looking for water or grass and better economics. 
But with the ever present changes in Mother Nature do to human stupidity and greed, farmers have not repealed some of the fundamental laws of nature, however,they still must contend with forces beyond their control most notably the weather. So who knows in my lifetime I may see another farmers migration .Nobody can predict a real shtf situation and is very ignorant to do so and to assume that a few cans of dry goods will do you any good if your basement gets flooded or you get hit by a forest fire or tornado or Atomic blast and to think that having guns and ammo is the only key to survival is totally ludicrous. Many lived inside a TV series many have never experience a real dire situation not even a total blackout many have never had to eat their own pets or probably never killed a chicken or pig, to know what hunger or darkness really is ,you have to lived it.


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## AmishHeart

You are sounding pretty bleak there, RTG.
As preppers, we have to try.


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## Flight1630

RTF I agree with what you are saying I do and I value your input in all your threads and posts. Even though I'm in the beginning learning stages and everyone has to start somewhere. I do feel like what AmishHeart said it's very bleak. And as she said we all have to try for the just in case scenario. My BOB for my truck is almost complete, and once done I will reveal it in a new thread to see what I can improve on.


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## tmttactical

RTG, A disaster is always bleak and dark for those who do not prepare. The main driving force behind this forum is to help those that want to be prepared. Better any plan, than no plan at all. Will all the people who are attempting to prepare succeed, no but they will still fare better than those who sat and waited of the government to come save them. Nobody can predict the future but you can predict and plan for the needed resources. Guns and ammo are not the only thing you need but you may need those items very badly. You can forage for food, it is much harder to forage for firearms and ammo. I have never seen any type of snare or trap that would capture guns and ammo, so that is why it is mentions so often in our posts. 

I think Bluez"s summary does provide an excellent chance of being an accurate prediction of how events will play out in a major SHTF event. A slow economic failure will simply make phase 1 last longer before moving into a phase 2 event. Just watching the Latin American countries show how these events will likely progress, only on a faster scale, due to our higher standard of living. The reaction to not having the usual freebies will be more pronounced among those who have never supported themselves. The drug trade will quickly die down as there will be not money to buy drugs. The crime rate will sky rocket as those without any resources are going to attempted to get whatever they need any way they can. This is not wild speculation but human nature, especially among the entitled folks. The only two unknown factors are: 1) When is it going to happen and 2) What is going to happen. All the other items are predictable facts. Desperate times and desperate people will do unspeakable desperate things. That is a indisputable fact. History has proven this point over and over again.


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## alwaysready

readytogo said:


> Wow everybody talks about shtf events and the city people dying in droves like if they were ignorant or something, the Plague ,WW 1 ,WW 2 ,events that killed billions ,and humanity still here , tornado alley gets hit every year, the big earthquake in California ,Andrew in Miami 92 wipe a big section of town ,the Atomic bomb in Japan,the Nuclear reactor's incidents around the World ,and humankind is still around but many still talk about people in the cities dying in droves or killing each others for a bucket of water, like nothing ever happens in the country side. People should read a little more about their countries history a little more and learn something about shtf moments and people .Farmers failure to understand the weather ,failure to rotated crops and over planting led to the Great Dust Bowl and the largest migration in American history within a short period of time. Between 1930 and 1940, approximately 3.5 million people moved out of the Plains states; of those, it is unknown how many moved to California. Farmers moving to the cities in a shtf situation ,Wow. So like a herd of animals migrating in the plains looking for water or grass and better economics.
> But with the ever present changes in Mother Nature do to human stupidity and greed, farmers have not repealed some of the fundamental laws of nature, however,they still must contend with forces beyond their control most notably the weather. So who knows in my lifetime I may see another farmers migration .Nobody can predict a real shtf situation and is very ignorant to do so and to assume that a few cans of dry goods will do you any good if your basement gets flooded or you get hit by a forest fire or tornado or Atomic blast and to think that having guns and ammo is the only key to survival is totally ludicrous. Many lived inside a TV series many have never experience a real dire situation not even a total blackout many have never had to eat their own pets or probably never killed a chicken or pig, to know what hunger or darkness really is ,you have to lived it.


Katrina killed 1,833 people it was a regional incident government help was late but it did come imagine if it never showed up. The plague, WWI, WWII, Heroshima and Nagasaki were all regional events which meant that at some point outside help arrived. The pandemic known as the plague reduced the population of Europe by between 30 and 60 % it reduced the world population from 450 million to between 350 and 375 million. Using today's world population the same event could cause 1.4 billion deaths. 
As for the dust bowl yes farmers left the land or what was left of it. With drought, soil erosion and bank foreclosures what choices did they have? Why did they go to cities well because of WWII there jobs able bodied people were need to fuel the US war effort . Also a large number of those that went to California settled in the central valley. What type of work did they find you guessed it farming. 
The bottom line is this is a community of people that are either prepared or are at some stage in the preparation process. I appreciate this thread. It's like having our own personal "think tank" without the government funding.


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## LastOutlaw

SewingMachine said:


> I have a day off work, so I sat the Wife down and started discussing what we would do in an emergency with one kid in Illinois (3 hours south) one kid in college (2 hours north) and one kid in high school (complete mess on a good day to pick her up).
> 
> She starts with "why worry about it? You can't plan for those things, we would just have to deal with it when it happens."


The easiest way to convince someone to prepare is let them read "One Second After"
Just lay the book on the coffee table and let them pick it up on their own.

Here is a link to it on Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/Second-After-John-Matherson-Novel/dp/0765356864


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## AmishHeart

Worked on my husband, too. But for me, it started with the book, "Patriots"


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## Starcreek

One Second After is one of the best post-apocalypse books I've read. Very realistic.

I will say this, in One Second After, Alas Babylon, and other shtf novels, the diabetics all die off. Insulin must be refrigerated, so they assume that all the diabetics would be among the first to go. However, according to some research I've done, the roots of the huckleberry plant, which is abundant in the South (I don't know about other areas) can be used to regulate diabetes. Boil the root, set the liquid aside to cool, and use in place of regular water to drink.


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## AmishHeart

In our area it seems that everyone is on one type of happy pill or another. (pain meds, depression meds, sleeping meds, not to mention the meth users) I wonder when they run out, what they will do. It may not kill them as quick as not having insulin, but they might kill each other when they're freaking out.


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## hiwall

If things do ever get bad, everyone will be freaking out, whether they are normally on pills or not.


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## Flight1630

https://wundergroundmusic.com/crystal-meth-actually-good-for-you-admit-doctors/

Quotas

Doctors have today admitted that they have been wrong about crystal meth this whole time and that the powerful narcotic is actually amazingly beneficial for health and well being.

"It increases concentration and drive, providing a much needed energy boost for the carrying out of petty crimes and handbag robberies," confirmed Department of Health spokesperson Dr. William Gould. "A strict diet of crystal meth is shown to improve brain function making it easier to count coins collected on the street by begging with a coffee cup."

Dr. Gould claimed that crystal meth contains "zero saturated fats and is perfect for people who are on a low carb diet" while also providing "100% of your daily methamphetamine needs".

"A strict crystal meth diet also helps people shed unwanted pounds, hair and teeth and promotes the growth of healthy scabs and unclean fingernails," continued the report which assessed the health of 1000 meth addicts and concluded that they had the rugged lean health of a 19th century street urchin with taut, tense muscles from constant alertness coupled with an immunity to most infections from living in their own filth for long periods at a time.

"It's absolutely fantastic as an appetite suppressant, often meth users will simply forget about having to eat which will eliminate a flabby stomach and give the face a beautiful sunken emaciated look," continued Dr. Gould who recommended that crystal meth should be enjoyed as part of a healthy diet that involves plenty of alcohol, cigarettes and unprotected sex.

"If people follow the crystal meth diet then they can expect to see results ranging from a reduction in unwanted bone density, a decrease in harmful bowel movements and removal of unwanted restorative sleep, within mere days of trying the super drug."

Crystal is available from all good health food outlets, dodgy blokes on motorcycles and Silk Road.


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## crabapple

I did not read a book.
This is just how we lived in the country.
On the the farm we learn to put up for winter months & for the coming storms.


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## hashbrown

crabapple said:


> I did not read a book.
> This is just how we lived in the country.
> On the the farm we learn to put up for winter months & for the coming storms.


That's how my family has always lived. People these days call us preppers but I really don't consider myself one. It's just how country folks live.


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## readytogo

Look any shtf situation is bad ,I have seen people go nuts over a flat tire or dead battery ,a broken refrigerator almost cause a aneurism to my neighbor so lets be ready but for what ,many speak of Dooms Day or Mad Max scenarios like in the movies ,I speak of what I have experience and for my area now ,some food ,water ,tools , some ammo ,spares parts ;like yesterday my old gas stove had a burner leaking ,Sears stove is so old is almost an antique but parts where in the attic ,same for my old Astro van ,we need to prepared for realistic events we need spared cash on hand ,we need good skills ,we need less junk in our life's, less complications. I'm not going to clear my bank account just because I fear a tornado or flood ,which by the way is expected happen here in Miami in another 100 years or so ,is totally crazy .I have been in tornados ,floods ,hurricanes ,I`m talking total destruction and waste and so far apart from the flood in Cuba in 1963 , our USA government much to the complain of many ,has help and kept people from starving or
dying from lack of medicines ,so I have faith and unlike many don`t ever think of a WW3 scenario or another plague ,I`m actually more concern with the human criminal element around my area or the crazy drivers here in Miami.


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## alwaysready

hashbrown said:


> That's how my family has always lived. People these days call us preppers but I really don't consider myself one. It's just how country folks live.


I agree what I'm doing is carrying on family traditions. A few days ago I made ice cream (pasaticho) for the first time is was a huge hit with the wife. Call me a prepper if you want just don't call me late for dinner if TSHTF.


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## hashbrown

alwaysready said:


> I agree what I'm doing is carrying on family traditions. A few days ago I made ice cream (pasaticho) for the first time is was a huge hit with the wife. Call me a prepper if you want just don't call me late for dinner if TSHTF.


I wouldn't do half of the things I do if I didn't have a kid to teach. My brother didn't pass it on to his kids but mine will know the old ways.


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## alwaysready

hashbrown said:


> I wouldn't do half of the things I do if I didn't have a kid to teach. My brother didn't pass it on to his kids but mine will know the old ways.


Passed it on to my kids now I'm passing it on to 12 grandchildren ages 21years to 1 week old.I'm proudest of my 11 year granddaughter who has been able to start a fire with out a match since she was 6.


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## RedBeard

I live in a small town area in nh. There is a pretty good group of us that are very ready. Heck part of our plan isn't to leave but in fact control who comes and goes. Fact is collapse happens and all but one rd will be impassible. We are already in the woods and we all plan to fight for what is ours. Being that the majority of the group is ex military and police we should hold up just fine. Plus we have the land working in our favor. Land that myself and most of the group knows very well. I never been one to run, and i sorround myself with those who won't either. Im not saying our plan is fool proof but whoever comes for what is ours is going to have one hell of a fight on their hands!


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## tmttactical

RedBeard said:


> I live in a small town area in nh. There is a pretty good group of us that are very ready. Heck part of our plan isn't to leave but in fact control who comes and goes. Fact is collapse happens and all but one rd will be impassible. We are already in the woods and we all plan to fight for what is ours. Being that the majority of the group is ex military and police we should hold up just fine. Plus we have the land working in our favor. Land that myself and most of the group knows very well. I never been one to run, and i sorround myself with those who won't either. Im not saying our plan is fool proof but whoever comes for what is ours is going to have one hell of a fight on their hands!


Redbeard, I am glad you and your neighbors have a concept of how you all plan to deal with a SHTF event. I am curious how and what and whom is going to determine your course of action? I am not trying to rain on your parade but I would like to understand how you and your group plan to enforce your local laws? Have you all discussed specific actions to specific events / violations of your enforcement policies. Do trespassers get shot, warned, hung by the neck or what is the penalty? Is that for first time offence or for repeat offences? Now I now this may sound a bit sarcastic and I don't mean it to be that way. I am just trying to point out that there are a lot of problems associated with a group defense and it is very important that all the participates are on the same page and that the group does not become a mob vs. defense group.


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## Flight1630

I wish we in this area would have peoples like what RedBeard talk about. Like my wife says. We live on geriatric lane. My wife and I are second youngest couple (47years old) on our road. Lol


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## RedBeard

tmttactical said:


> Redbeard, I am glad you and your neighbors have a concept of how you all plan to deal with a SHTF event. I am curious how and what and whom is going to determine your course of action? I am not trying to rain on your parade but I would like to understand how you and your group plan to enforce your local laws? Have you all discussed specific actions to specific events / violations of your enforcement policies. Do trespassers get shot, warned, hung by the neck or what is the penalty? Is that for first time offence or for repeat offences? Now I now this may sound a bit sarcastic and I don't mean it to be that way. I am just trying to point out that there are a lot of problems associated with a group defense and it is very important that all the participates are on the same page and that the group does not become a mob vs. defense group.


You are totally right. We are lucky because we have a big group of ex military and ex law. Most of whom are natural leaders. We have choosen a core group of leaders who will keep us alive. If the shtf scenario is long term we will vote in officials that are needed. When it comes to outsiders well me i say shot them in the head. But thats not my call, that call lies with men i have known since i was in diapers. Men who have seen active combat and who have already been there done that so to speak. We don't have every little detail ironed out but we have enough to make a go at survival. The groups main goal is to be a cobat force. To setup security for our families and our food. We are prepared to move if we absolutely have to but we know this land better than anyone and plan to keep control of it. As far as crime and punishment i don't see much of it happening in our group. We aren't looking to setup a society we are trying to stay alive. But i suppose something could happen and it would be solved in a court like manner. Crimes that put the group in danger are more likely to be solved with a bullet on the spot. Now all that said what really worries me is if America goes into a shtf situation we would be open to an attack from another country. If that happens then it doesn't matter what your plan is.


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## tmttactical

RedBeard said:


> You are totally right. We are lucky because we have a big group of ex military and ex law. Most of whom are natural leaders. We have choosen a core group of leaders who will keep us alive. If the shtf scenario is long term we will vote in officials that are needed. When it comes to outsiders well me i say shot them in the head. But thats not my call, that call lies with men i have known since i was in diapers. Men who have seen active combat and who have already been there done that so to speak. We don't have every little detail ironed out but we have enough to make a go at survival. The groups main goal is to be a cobat force. To setup security for our families and our food. We are prepared to move if we absolutely have to but we know this land better than anyone and plan to keep control of it. As far as crime and punishment i don't see much of it happening in our group. We aren't looking to setup a society we are trying to stay alive. But i suppose something could happen and it would be solved in a court like manner. Crimes that put the group in danger are more likely to be solved with a bullet on the spot. Now all that said what really worries me is if America goes into a shtf situation we would be open to an attack from another country. If that happens then it doesn't matter what your plan is.


I don't worry about another country invading, that would be the fastest way to unite our country. Plus by the time it really hits the fan, what are we going to have that another country would be willing to fight us for? With a global economy, every country is going to be hip deep in the poo and fighting to save their own butts from their own people. If you can't feed your own population, it is going to be real difficult to convince them to attack another country that does not have diddly poop either.

I am more concerned with good hearted and well intention-ed militia becoming the next warlord faction. They start out defending their families and as supplies / resources become scarce in their area of operation, they change from the good guys -scavengers to looters and worse. I know most of these groups are going to stay on the good side of the force but some are going to move to the dark side, Luke. (could not resist). 

I know there are many who would be better leaders or maybe make better choices in a shtf situation but I am not willing to bet my butt on anybody but me. My life , my choice. What lurks in the heart of man, only the Shadow Knows.  Defending crops and herds is going to be very difficult and also resource intensive. Shared protection is good but it comes at the price of shared resources. The balancing act is very difficult to carry out and I am not good enough with people to be involved in that type of situation. I think you might have a good handle on the people and how they will react to a given situation but you also might drop a few test scenarios when you are all gathered around the camp fire having a few cold one's. You might just be surprised at some of the suggestions or maybe you will get your judgement of the group confirmed. JMHO


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## marlas1too

will stay here---need the target pratice---and protect what is mine and family and willk have ther family members coming here to help---thats the plan


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## RedBeard

tmttactical said:


> I don't worry about another country invading, that would be the fastest way to unite our country. Plus by the time it really hits the fan, what are we going to have that another country would be willing to fight us for? With a global economy, every country is going to be hip deep in the poo and fighting to save their own butts from their own people. If you can't feed your own population, it is going to be real difficult to convince them to attack another country that does not have diddly poop either.
> 
> I am more concerned with good hearted and well intention-ed militia becoming the next warlord faction. They start out defending their families and as supplies / resources become scarce in their area of operation, they change from the good guys -scavengers to looters and worse. I know most of these groups are going to stay on the good side of the force but some are going to move to the dark side, Luke. (could not resist).
> 
> I know there are many who would be better leaders or maybe make better choices in a shtf situation but I am not willing to bet my butt on anybody but me. My life , my choice. What lurks in the heart of man, only the Shadow Knows.  Defending crops and herds is going to be very difficult and also resource intensive. Shared protection is good but it comes at the price of shared resources. The balancing act is very difficult to carry out and I am not good enough with people to be involved in that type of situation. I think you might have a good handle on the people and how they will react to a given situation but you also might drop a few test scenarios when you are all gathered around the camp fire having a few cold one's. You might just be surprised at some of the suggestions or maybe you will get your judgement of the group confirmed. JMHO


I really hope your right on the other countries. We sure do have alot of enemy's. Im not good with people either but one person can only defend so much. We all now are self sustainable farmers and the majority will have zero problem living off the land. New England is full of clean water and plenty of food running around in the woods. The heart of man, yes it can't be trusted i agree, but like i said we are more of a combat force than a society. New Englanders pretty much due their own thing. Im not saying we don't help each other out it's just we don't care about your problems because we have our own and winter is coming so we need to keep our heads down and preppare. The north has a way of sorting out the weak and showing a person's true intention. War lords will be a problem that's why we formed our group. And when it comes to the camp fire talk well im usually the one that says just kill em. I have very little use for society now and if the shtf my only goal will be to keep my wife and daughter alive and safe. I've been told a number of times i need to get off the mountain more, but i like here so im not gonna. Like hashbrown said it's a country folk thing. We embrace the old ways and i for one look forward to humanity going back to its roots.


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## hiwall

> I don't worry about another country invading, that would be the fastest way to unite our country.


I don't know tm. It seems like Mexico is invading right now and some of our population want to give the southwestern states to them.


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## RedBeard

Im just worried that in a usa shtf situation one of our enemies will bomb the crap out of us because they can. But ya our country is definitely being invaded now.


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## phideaux

I go back to the Frog in the pot of water....


I see us in that pot of water..

and we ain't dumb frogs.:dunno:




Jim


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## Tirediron

phideaux said:


> I go back to the Frog in the pot of water....
> 
> I see us in that pot of water..
> 
> and we ain't dumb frogs.:dunno:
> 
> Jim


Major truth in this statement, at home, pretty much everywhere, huge corporate interests have changed find a need and fill it to force a need and fill it (Monsanto for example) useless "entertainers" make huge money, trades people work for chump change. Paper mercenaries (Lawyers) make stupid laws to keep themselves rich.


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## RedBeard

Tirediron said:


> Major truth in this statement, at home, pretty much everywhere, huge corporate interests have changed find a need and fill it to force a need and fill it (Monsanto for example) useless "entertainers" make huge money, trades people work for chump change. Paper mercenaries (Lawyers) make stupid laws to keep themselves rich.


I really hate Monsanto! Im not even gonna start about those scum bags because they are a whole nother topic. Look at who is in control of our food on a government level, they all are ex Monsanto employees. ...


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## FrankW

Bump 'cuz of current events


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## musketjim

I try to think of different scenarios such as this one. On my long runs or rucks I tweak and alter my responses and think of other scenarios. It sure keeps my mind sharp and focused. I try to prep for everything I can, but in the end as a wise man once said "My ignorance amuses me"


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## BillS

hashbrown said:


> I don't see a mass exodus from the cities. Take the Great Depression for example, did folks head to the country? That answer would be no. Even if a small percentage do I cant see them making it very far being starved and drinking ditch water. Most will wait until it's too late waiting on the government to save them.
> In my opinion the op doesn't have any idea about people that are deeply rooted in the rural areas by describing the poorly armed homesteads the way he did. Most people living in those areas are very well armed and shoot **** all the time anyway. March that herd through this part of the Ozarks and see how well their raiding goes. The hollars will be stacked with dead bodies. :rofl:


I'd expect that once the power is off for awhile the ghetto people will go into middle class areas to rob, rape, loot, and kill. That's the biggest danger of being near a big city. Car accidents, cars that ran out of fuel, and roads deliberately blocked by perps to keep people from escaping could be the biggest dangers to getting out of the city alive once it starts.


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## BillS

To me, the most likely cause of societal collapse will be the collapse of the dollar and the refusal of other countries to accept dollars as payment for goods. The last I knew, 60% of US oil is imported. The day OPEC stops accepting dollars in payment for oil will mark America becoming a third world country. That won't happen without warning. We'll see double digit annual inflation first. Then double digit monthly inflation. And it will get worse and worse. Maybe by then China will have a gold backed currency and even American farmers will want to be paid in that currency because it would be much more stable than the dying dollar.

It could also be caused by a limited nuclear exchange with North Korea. Or a flu pandemic like the one in 1918. Or a solar flare or an EMP knocking out the US power grids. Or maybe major banks go under one after another and suddenly all the banks are closed and nobody has money. I expect that we'll see major warning signs before the collapse but nobody really knows for sure. It's why it's good to be ready.


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## FrankW

Hard to argue w/ Bills points. Even tho the fraction of our oil thats imported is dropping by the month...
Everyone has their favorite apocalypse.. but IMO most plausible ones will make cities uninhabitable.


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## capt.

My take is this. The power players dem/rep all parties that want power and control have been slowly changing things since ww2 maybe before 20s-30-? Big changes would cause a huge backlash for those players so a little at a time is changed and then no one seems to care or notice. This and the tech advance makes these people think we can do what Hitler and the others failed at. Part of this as we are already seeing is a failure of society control and morals. We may see the end game, our kids might see it. OR only a small percentage of us will see it and not be able to stop it. IT will become the norm and mankind will accept it, we will be outcasts because of what we think.


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## FrankW

Bump.. It was a good discussion. Lets keep it going!


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## capt.

Lately the media has certainly demonized us, If they had their way and they are we will be wearing little flags that won't allow us in places. Net flix for instance put a whole lot in, that we all don't like. Susan Rice was just hired on as a chair person. I canceled my sub and told them why.


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## Ezmerelda

mommahen10 said:


> In any Scenario the time of year must also be taking into account, for bugging out purposes as well as what the rest of the people will do. If it's winter or fall in the north half of the USA I think people are going to try to head South, If it's spring or summer they will spread out trying to find food and water, and probably head South as the weather cools in the fall, unless they have a way to keep warm.


I'm not sure the horde has that level of logical thinking. ::shrug::


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## Ezmerelda

Starcreek said:


> One Second After is one of the best post-apocalypse books I've read. Very realistic.
> 
> I will say this, in One Second After, Alas Babylon, and other shtf novels, the diabetics all die off. Insulin must be refrigerated, so they assume that all the diabetics would be among the first to go. However, according to some research I've done, the roots of the huckleberry plant, which is abundant in the South (I don't know about other areas) can be used to regulate diabetes. Boil the root, set the liquid aside to cool, and use in place of regular water to drink.


I was diagnosed as "pre-diabetic" and so far, I'm controlling it with diet and exercise, but that factoid about huckleberry root is very good to know! Thanks for the info!


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## FrankW

Ezmerelda said:


> I was diagnosed as "pre-diabetic" and so far, I'm controlling it with diet and exercise, but that factoid about huckleberry root is very good to know! Thanks for the info!


I knew a guy who was prediabetic and it endangered his upcoming job at a SWAT Team.
They gave him only 6 or 8 weeks to fix it or not be hired.
He worked out 6 days a week.. after 6 or 8 weeks he had lost 25 lbs and his blood work came out normal..


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## capt.

I'm on insulin so I keep a years worth ahead. I keep it in a solar powered cooler and rotate every refill. If the cooler stops I have a spring box to keep it cold. When you get it filled ask the pharmacy to ck dates for you . And you can ask a doctor for a few extra because of holiday eating or going on vacation , under the stress of a major problem you may need less and you will lose weight also. I could get snowed in for weeks at a time so doc had no issues with making sure I always had enough. same goes for all my life or death meds. I hope that extra year will allow me to find a new source.


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## capt.

UPDATE on .gov action in Chicago , ATF and local police confiscate guns in the Yards area , I don't know the area at all , perhaps someone here knows. One ATF agent shot. A Under Cover, wonder what he was up to. Regardless of a high crime area, going into an area, any area will cause violence. I am surprised only one officer was shot so far. Perhaps .gov let the area crime rise just for a reason to try this. This is one of those little steps that will just keep gaining momentum as it goes along. Hope not!, get the violent thugs and leave every one else alone. Wonder what happens if you shoot a home invader in chi town.??


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## ArizonaHeat

Look at the homeless/drug/rat problem in SF...we are perilously close to plague-like disease sweeping the city...there are human feces and needles lying everywhere in the streets...it's only a matter of time...


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## capt.

ArizonaHeat said:


> Look at the homeless/drug/rat problem in SF...we are perilously close to plague-like disease sweeping the city...there are human feces and needles lying everywhere in the streets...it's only a matter of time...


I have only been in cal 2 times once when 9 yrs old and once bringing a comrade at arms back from RVN. This was in the 1970 and I saw a lot of hippy like folk but it looked clean . air was ok. Has it gotten that bad in 40 odd years.


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## capt.

OK another 2 cents. My wife and I went to fema classes when they first started , years ago. All I learned there was how to get a job as a EMS and a cert. / director which I did for 2 co/1city/1college and I found out the state used it to find out what you had on hand as a co or city and then charged you ,or cost you money to tell them / you had to use all your resource 's first then hope they would help. I was paid 32 thou a year to fill out paperwork for the state and feds a portion of that was pass trough monies, and the local .gov picked up the rest. Then had to pay the state for the privilege. State said we all had to have this. OR NO FED AID. You cannot believe the money wasted. finally I told the locals to stop paying the state anything and not to tell them what we had. I was not very popular with the state. It is a huge money maker for state and feds. Maybe! they help but, you had better hold on your rear with both hands. In a real pinch (SHTF) they will not be of any help. So I agree that you should start living as self reliant as you can and learn now. Better late then never!! not in this case.


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## FrankW

Capt.. I must admit I did not fully understand your post.. can you repost with a bit more detail?


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## capt.

OK will try gett'n old, ramble a bit. Years ago when FEMA first started My wife and I attened class to get our fema cert. This would allow us to be local FEMA reps under a combined fed/state funding scheme. I was a local director along with my pd work for 2 counties and a local college. I did this for a few years and came to the realization that it was basically a kind of money maker for the state, fema office and the feds. A self funding relief effort if you will. A wage was paid and the local area had to agree to a ream of paper work on a regular basis ,one was to list what resources you had as Fema would not assist until local resources were used and gone.(why did they need to know what you had) This would break smaller .gov areas. Also local monies had to be expended to meet all the training /meetings/paperwork etc that state/fed fema wanted on a regular basis. This is one reason over the years that there is a great lag time in response/like Katrina. But every one in between makes / or spends monies from this program. If the local .gov did not want to go along, (fema) said they would not help in a major event, so they kinda held this over local .gov as a you need to pay for what we want you to do or we won't help. This was on top of all the laws passed that infringed on everyones rights. Now they even admit that the agency fema may take awhile to get any were, I think the last estimate was up to 3 weeks, so self supply till they show up. . No one is held to account as to how most of the money is spent. We went to training here, at top of the line golf courses and resorts, I used to berate the state leadership over this. Why are we spending 200 dollars a night for a room and have a circus tent set up with chefs to make our meals to order. I thought a empty air plane hanger or a state owned warehouse was or would be fine. Most of these training /meetings were attended by 300 people or more . Most of the command people were always there but missed the training /meetings but would use resort bennies/golf/pools/sking etc. . I believed this to be a huge waste of tax dollars and just could not condone it, what I considered a misuse of money. So I advised the local .gov to pull out of the programs and self fund and insure themselves . Then I quit !!!.This did not make me very popular with the state/fed people who misused monies, nothing happened and no one higher up seemed to care. You can't even think up all the crap paid for with tax money which comes out of our pocket, with the caveat of this is good for you. But they did get every state in the union to pass laws allowing them to take your preps, move you,etc. if they see fit. Look up your state emergency management laws , you will cringe. The authority forfeits back to the county chair person. In the end makes it politics. Please let me know if it clears up the post,. Churchs/The red cross and each other used to do the same thing for free.


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## capt.

OH! just another nudge for slow change but they are only helping. They give us money when bad things happen , but where do they get the money in the first place. Just trying to tie it in with the slow crawl to SHTF , how much money would a nation size OOP'S cost??.


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## BillM

Phase II, Populations in the cities will not retreat in mass to rural settings . most of them have grown up in the city and they are going to stay there and wait for the government to help them. Hwys will be impassable very quickly and people do not walk anymore. The people in cities will die in mass in their own homes and neighborhoods .


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## capt.

Billm I agree , even now the interstates are bumper to bumper and one accident will close the freeway. That's only trout season. Everyone want's to go to granpa's cabin and hunt. I say they can't make it out of the city. Most cannot even read a road map. BUT that's ok.


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## FrankW

You guys are correct but that applies to the end of phase one. People will stay as long as possible..
But when they starve and also there is no water.. they will leave the population centers.


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## capt.

They should be walking by then. No one to clear roads. Only those that know how to use compass/road/contour map will be able to go anywhere, the rest will just end up in a circle , depending if they lead with right or left foot. (Gee this looks like we have been here already.)
There will be enough that will be an issue but real city folk will be stuck in city after only a couple hours of panic. I think!!!


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## FrankW

capt. said:


> They should be walking by then. No one to clear roads.


And this is what I call the start of Phase two. Normal travel no longer possible but many folks now realizing the predicament so they leave the population centers.


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## capt.

OK start of phase 2. People will prey on each other as they flee the city, nice honest helpful folk will be the first hit as the gang mentality causes violence. Gangs will attempt to take what they can as they move out of an area and recruit other like minded nut jobs , on the way out. I still think they will be on foot until they reach a good distance out and away from the city and find motor transport. Only exception may be motorcycles/bikes/scooters etc.
What they can carry will be a limit imposed by this. In this area as they reach the sticks people will form up in groups to act as police along with our local PD guys. At least I hope so. It will not be a good day. Just hope no major event happens to set it off.


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## ArizonaHeat

Sounds like a scene right out of "The Walking Dead"!


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## ArizonaHeat

I think the worst case scenario will be an indefinite loss of the power grid. When that happens there will be no food deliveries, no fuel deliveries and basically no infrastructure. So the question becomes, will it be any better by trying to travel to a rural area? Or are you better off to shelter-in-place and defend your location? (This assumes you have stored food, water and ammunition.)


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## FrankW

ArizonaHeat said:


> I think the worst case scenario will be an indefinite loss of the power grid. When that happens there will be no food deliveries, no fuel deliveries and basically no infrastructure. So the question becomes, will it be any better by trying to travel to a rural area? Or are you better off to shelter-in-place and defend your location? (This assumes you have stored food, water and ammunition.)


If are you urban or suburban no matter how much food/water you have stored eventually you will run out.
Also Sewers will start backing up and make the place unlivable.
So if the grid is down HARD hunkering down may just postponing the inevitable. Except the later you leave the less survivable the trek becomes.... UNLESS you are enough resources ot last 1 yr.
By then everyone unprepared has died off and the kinetic phase, phase 2 is likely over so the main threat may be gone ( dead).
BUT by now the culture has become much rougher because everyone is basically walking dead survivalist character.. and if u dont have tribe or safe location to fall into ( or just meet the wrong crew on the way) you may still see trouble on your trek.


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## capt.

For those of us that can afford it or can get along and band together to get a place where each family unit can put up shelter / toilet etc. and actually live there once twice a year. Upgrade as can afford. Any low pop area with small .gov would work. You can have an out house or septic ,well or spring creek or pond. Just make every thing varmint proof. Also low maintenance metal roof/spray foam etc. All low key. My area has a gated 5 thousand acres mostly rich folks except 3 or 4 of us retired folks. So far after 12 years no issues. We don't talk about preps and such. Our only issue is the state that hates this kind of set up. We are not anti anything and cause no problems but it seems that 1 or 2 times a year a state DNR or police walk in , They can't locate it all, but it is on google earth , this I see as the future problem, threat (Google Earth, Defense mapping etc) Perhaps a solar flare would be the best/bad thing. But you still have to get there!!!.


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## FrankW

Good thinking!


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## BillM

ArizonaHeat said:


> I think the worst case scenario will be an indefinite loss of the power grid. When that happens there will be no food deliveries, no fuel deliveries and basically no infrastructure. So the question becomes, will it be any better by trying to travel to a rural area? Or are you better off to shelter-in-place and defend your location? (This assumes you have stored food, water and ammunition.)


We will defiantly shelter in place. I live here and no one can drive me out. I will live or die right here.


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## capt.

Billm I agree, Im at an age where getting to my other place may not be possible. My kids know how to get there and are getting to a place in life where they can build a small cabin on the property , so at least some one will use it. They know where all the stuff is and keep mouths shut . I'm not rich as the .gov jobs don't pay very hi retirement but I have put away a little stuff since my return from RVN and saw how screwed up that was , then Clintons, onward etc. But what I think is most important is the mind set, and not being caught with your britches down, mentally, Like I've told people for years , think plan react, don't sit on your brains. I used to handle a lot of family violence. So the dept used to buy pepper spray that I handed out to any women who thought she had enough, smacking around. I also told each one to buy a child's bat and to never hit anyone in the head but gave them a baton chart and said swing away, Most spouses stopped the abuse or moved away because the wife kicked there A$$. I still have women come up to me and thank me after 15 years, and tell me it changed their lives. I also told them to call me and my dept if this happened not the state. The mind can get you killed, or lack of one. Don't wait for .gov it will take awhile and you may not like it.


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## FarmerPat

capt. said:


> I'm on insulin so I keep a years worth ahead. I keep it in a solar powered cooler and rotate every refill. If the cooler stops I have a spring box to keep it cold. When you get it filled ask the pharmacy to ck dates for you . And you can ask a doctor for a few extra because of holiday eating or going on vacation , under the stress of a major problem you may need less and you will lose weight also. I could get snowed in for weeks at a time so doc had no issues with making sure I always had enough. same goes for all my life or death meds. I hope that extra year will allow me to find a new source.


FYI- you can buy Novolin N and Novolin R insulin OVER THE COUNTER at Walmart pharmacies. No limit and no prescription needed. I'm on NovolinN and have been uninsured since ObamaCRAP was passed, and I get my insulin there. It's a life saver for both myself and my insulin-dependent chocolate Lab.


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## BillS

I thought once that a pandemic could cause a total economic collapse. I thought people might be afraid to go to work. Grocery stores could close. I just didn't expect most of the economy to shut down because of one. 

I think it will get ugly this summer if the country isn't back to normal. I see stories on the internet that it really isn't that bad in New York. I also wonder if Trump knows how bad it will get but is trying to give people hope. I think the story that the virus will peak in a week or two is nonsense. I've been watching the virus and death counts everyday. The confirmed cases were going up 10% a day. Now it's about 5%. That means it doubles about every 4 weeks instead of every 2 weeks.

I still think the virus is a bio weapon. To me it's no coincidence that Wuhan has a bio weapons lab. It's also possible that it was produced in the US and released in China.


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## capt.

I agree that China is making a practice run.


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