# Wisdom from the mouth of thugs



## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

We have gone round and round with the loner vs. community debate, but I wanted to call your attention to this video which provides, in my humble opinion, the decisive answer to the debate:






It's amazing, the mentality, that would so non-chalantly suggest just taking what you want and need from others, but we hear it occasionally echoed here so why not expect it from thugs who don't know any better?

And if you need more reasons check out: 
SHTFplan's 10 reasons you need a community.​


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

And please let's call this what it is: it's not black vs. white, its entitlement mentality vs. self-reliance. There are PLENTY of white folks out there who think the same way.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

*Be fruitful and multiply*

He is right, people are an asset!


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## radio477 (Feb 9, 2012)

wow i can't believe i just wasted a few minutes of my life watching that crap, if that is supposed to scare me or make me rethink my game plan, really? If a shuffling mess of a hundred of these folks stood a chance against five well prepared, dug in determined individuals i would be very surprised. There hungry, thirsty, tired from shuffling from house to house, i am none of that, i have been watching, waiting, eating, sleeping, hydrating, and my compost pile is empty. I shoot first ask questions later, after a period of time most of these folks will be killed or starved off, then it will be time to venture out cautiously, to find survivors other prepared people and form our own "gangs" or "poses".


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## staceyj (Feb 17, 2012)

I agree Padre.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

well..he has a point.. Like I always been saying.. you need a certain minium number of people to be able to defend what you have.
Just Two people won't cut it.

So have at least enoughto have one guard awake at all times.

For that you need at least 10 PPL.

Even though I am not really worried about "his 20 people coming" as long as you have just a half dozen and you dont get suprised.
What he doesnt understand is that ehoiw efective aimed fire by trained inidviduals is.
Real world does not equal schoolyard bully fights.

Even if I have just 2 extra guys with me I am liking my chances against him and 20 urban punks 

but even so .. he has a point.. a family unti by itself is not enough in number of able bodied adults.

You need enough to have at least one better 2 adults who can carry wepaons and now how ot use them awake at all times.


(I been wondering if to store some concertina wire in a shed and agood pair of gloves would be good and string it out over vulerable sections of your property...)


Also
Otherwise if your preps are super secret and no one knowns about you in some situaitions if you have enough food to simply outlast anybody and by the time you have to leave to form hunting parties or farm,.... the unprepared people have all died already of starvation..

Thats why some locations that dont have a sustainalble food soiurce could be very useful for prepping too.
If you can hold out for a year or so.. most people will be dead of starvation


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## CapnJack (Jul 20, 2012)

radio477 said:


> wow i can't believe i just wasted a few minutes of my life watching that crap, if that is supposed to scare me or make me rethink my game plan, really? If a shuffling mess of a hundred of these folks stood a chance against five well prepared, dug in determined individuals i would be very surprised. There hungry, thirsty, tired from shuffling from house to house, i am none of that, i have been watching, waiting, eating, sleeping, hydrating, and my compost pile is empty. I shoot first ask questions later, after a period of time most of these folks will be killed or starved off, then it will be time to venture out cautiously, to find survivors other prepared people and form our own "gangs" or "poses".


Sing it, friend! I made it 1:40 into it and the video stopped playing and won't restart. I think maybe my computer even realized that this guy is a giant *******, and doesn't feel that I need to be bothered with it. Well, then my computer is right. The way I figuer it, the gangs will be wwwwaaaayyyy too busy killing EACHOTHER off, to worry about coming to get those of us out in the sticks.


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

There are a number of ways to place bets on the outcome of a SHTF event. This guy is placing his bet on a gang approach - strength in numbers allows the gang to TAKE what they want from the weaker groups or individuals. Fine, let him try.

Here's what he's facing on the opposite side of his bet -People who know military tactics.

Who has the inherent advantage, those on defense of those on offense?
Who has the advantage, those who know the land they are defending or those who arrive onto new territory and are on offense?
Who has the advantage, those who prepare their land to defend against an assault or those who have the numbers to storm a stronghold?

This guy is basically ignoring what we learned from WWI and waves of human assault. One machine gun nest, well defended, could wipe out thousands of doughboys jumping out of their trenches and rushing towards the enemy. One prepper, in a well hidden and buried, sniper nest, with a clear line of fire is going to wipe out this guy's gang of marauders. Look at what happened at Masada millenia ago - they withstood the Roman Legions for a long time. We're not even talking that scenario here, where the Legion could draw resources from far and wide, we're talking about a rag-tag gang of unprepared looters with no food, water and weapons supply lines backing them up going up against a defended position.

Next up is operational security. This guy's gang first has to have the scouting intelligence to know where to direct their marauding. It's completely plausible that they'll march right past a prepper's base of operations and not even know it contains a wealth of resources. Preppers are not going to be lighting up their aircraft search lights to serve as a beacon for people to zero in on.

Back to the earlier line of reasoning - a defensive position can store their weapons, ammo and other defensive support equipment while a marauding gang has to transport, either by vehicle or on the bodies of the marauders, all of their offensive weapons and their rations. Who is more mobile, who can be patient as they await sniping opportunities? Who has to take the most risk in order to achieve their goal?

I can well imagine that there are many people on this board, even if their OPSEC is blown, who could with one or two family members, hold off this guy's gang of marauders without requiring any prep time in a SHTF scenario and that if there is warning of collapse the number of successful defenders would increase even further. I mean, most preppers are thinking and preparing for the worst so they would likely see signs of eminent collapse long before this guy's gang would see the signs, and long before he could put his gang together, and long long before his assembled gang marched onto your stronghold.

I think his gang approach is the wrong bet.


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## *Andi (Nov 8, 2009)

BlueZ said:


> well..he has a point.. Like I always been saying.. you need a certain minium number of people to be able to defend what you have.
> Just Two people won't cut it.


No, you need a plan ... think moat ... :2thumb:

Moats were excavated around castles and fortifications as part of the defensive ... now a moat of ol days can be rather different from today...  ~

Think sheep with 6 horns ... (yes, I said 6) ... think cattle with 6 foot horns ... I know the folks down the road told us "not" to call them if they got out.

As a back up you have geese and dogs ... Yes, I said geese before dogs because the geese are our number 1 alarm.

And "IF" they get past that they must get by Eeoyore ...

Even if you don't have sheep with 6 horns or cattle with a 6 foot spread, you can still have a moat ... of one kind or another... think blackberries, wild roses or security hedges ...(Flowering plants that produce thorns along the stems are often used as ornamental specimen plants or security hedges)

Like I said think moat ... one way or the other.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

The Primacy of the Defense is stong when the Offense has no ability to resupply.
They need to suprise us in order to be successful.

What are the chances a"posse' of undisciplined thugs noise making chattering thugs is going to surprsie anybody?

Still is good to have at least some number on your side too to be able to post a watch at all times.

Is there anyone on here who when attacked in such a scenario wouldnt feel confident about attriting a gang of thugs?


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

BlueZ said:


> The Primacy of the Defense is stong when the Offense has no ability to resupply.
> They need to suprise us in order to be successful.
> 
> What are the chances a"posse' of undisciplined thugs noise making chattering thugs is going to surprsie anybody?
> ...


If a prepper household is a.) secure against break-in and b.) allows multiple clear lines of sight around the perimeter, then you don't even need guards.

The marauders arrive in the dead of night. All they have access to is your compound. Sure, that's not great, but it needn't be the end for you. At some point in the night you become aware of their presence. Mount your night scope and get to work. If they try to break-in or set fire to your house, take them out while they are in close proximity. In other words, make it very costly for them to approach the house.

Sure, this being taken by surprise means that you now face a battle for survival in closer quarters than would have been the case if you had guards who warned of the marauder's approach and thus allowed you to pick the ground of battle, but even still you have the benefit of secure caches of weapons, ammo, food, water, warmth, and you know the terrain as well as having prescouted the best sniper nests with good lines of fire.

Ultimately you've had time to think through how you would take over your compound and this means that you've also had time to think of counter defenses. A huge water tank in the attic serves dual purpose - water storage and free pressurization as well as a secure source of water to put out any home fire that the marauder may set to burn you out of your secure stronghold. You get the picture. A tunnel out of your basement to a piece of land obscured by bushes allows unobserved entry and exit into your home and this could be a way to multiply your forces - they think everyone is inside the house and all of a sudden they are taking fire from their rear lines. Confusion ensues. When the heat gets too much for you you head back inside the house and they keep chasing ghosts.


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## Wester5491 (Jun 15, 2012)

Bobbb said:


> Here's what he's facing on the opposite side of his bet -People who know military tactics.
> 
> Who has the inherent advantage, those on defense of those on offense?
> Who has the advantage, those who know the land they are defending or those who arrive onto new territory and are on offense?
> ...


Wonderful points on this, looking at it from a military point of view, or basically logical point of view to be blunt. One well defended man with the skills, knowledge, and desire to survive may very well be able to defend himself from some rag-tag group of half starved people. Besides Throughout history we've seen this point put to use already, such as the afghan rebels fighting the soviet union. These were men on horses with ww1 weapons fighting a modern army with mass resources. They managed to hold them off just with their will to defend what is theirs. So people have a desire to defend what they have, everyone will go down with a fight if things get this bad, so regardless of group or not, everyone will fight everyone to the end. Both sides are making valid points somewhat. But I'm on the side of a single man with the right mindset could take down a group that's not in that mindset, or at least a group without overwhelming numbers or well equipped men.


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

A lot of people on these forums seem to be misinformed. Gangs are highly organized, heavily armed, and MANY gang members have US Military training, especially Urban Combat skills from places like Iraq. Gang infiltration into the US military has been going on for years. Google the FBI report, *Gang Activity in the U.S. Armed Forces Increasing*. In most cities gangs are better armed than the law enforcement. MS-13, Latin Kings, Bloods, Crips, etc are just examples of how highly organized and financed these gangs are. These gangs have rocket launchers, grenade launchers, fully automatic weapons, etc.

Initially, gangs will turn on each other for retaliation, but after the initial spike in violence, they will start working together and combine forces with Drug Cartels and Motorcycle Gangs. Look how Hamas is working with the Drug Cartels in Mexico. Law enforcement considers gangs to be a very serious threat. Preppers had better realize that it isn't going be 20 gang members coming by... it might be upwards of a 100 and they are going to be well armed.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

Good points made by many. Not liking the Afghan example though since they were never able to hold any ground, which is what you must do if defending your BOL or your place.


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

The only way that the marauders could have an advantage is if they have access to more powerful weapons. Rocket propelled grenades are going to do so damage to either your stronghold or your sniper's nest, where ever you're posing a problem for them. How likely though is this turn of events compared to small arms fire though? Secondly, on the question of explosive devices, it's far more likely that defenders will have readier access to home made devices, component parts stored safely in long term storage, than would be the case of a mobile gang-banger rag tag army coming out from various inner cities.

Preppers with diesel tanks, with fertilizer for their crops are set to divert these materials to defensive use in the event of societal collapse and eminent attack on one's home. Where is this inner city hood going to find those resources.? He might, but not very likely.


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

kejmack said:


> A lot of people on these forums seem to be misinformed. Gangs are highly organized, heavily armed, and MANY gang members have US Military training, especially Urban Combat skills from places like Iraq. Gang infiltration into the US military has been going on for years. Google the FBI report, *Gang Activity in the U.S. Armed Forces Increasing*. In most cities gangs are better armed than the law enforcement. MS-13, Latin Kings, Bloods, Crips, etc are just examples of how highly organized and financed these gangs are. These gangs have rocket launchers, grenade launchers, fully automatic weapons, etc.
> 
> Initially, gangs will turn on each other for retaliation, but after the initial spike in violence, they will start working together and combine forces with Drug Cartels and Motorcycle Gangs. Look how Hamas is working with the Drug Cartels in Mexico. Law enforcement considers gangs to be a very serious threat. Preppers had better realize that it isn't going be 20 gang members coming by... it might be upwards of a 100 and they are going to be well armed.


Its true some gang members might be ex military..
But that doesnt concer me much an di will tell u why.

Bu tmuch as been made of of this "infiltration" and there really isnt a significant amount of it tho.. a lot of sensationalism here.
Good ex solders will not join a gang.
and people kicked out of th military for being a problem will not bring too much to the table for a gang.

I grant you that a mexican drug cartel is not something we could stave off.

But they are few and far between and we dont live in Mexico.

I think most concerns would be from the weak urban thugs gangs most of which cant hit the broad side of a barn but have "mob courage"

As for that story with hamas and mexican drug cartels, I am not sure what that has to do witht his subject at all..:gaah:

And unless you are importing complete Colombian drugs soldiers you wont have to worry about dealing with RPG's...

I think one can always "what if" any plan to death.. but most appraoches elisted in this thread here today seem sound agains realistic threats..

except I still think the number issue is a concern ..
You cant be just one guy.


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

kejmack said:


> A lot of people on these forums seem to be misinformed. Gangs are highly organized, heavily armed, and MANY gang members have US Military training, especially Urban Combat skills from places like Iraq. Gang infiltration into the US military has been going on for years. Google the FBI report, *Gang Activity in the U.S. Armed Forces Increasing*. In most cities gangs are better armed than the law enforcement. MS-13, Latin Kings, Bloods, Crips, etc are just examples of how highly organized and financed these gangs are. These gangs have rocket launchers, grenade launchers, fully automatic weapons, etc.
> 
> Initially, gangs will turn on each other for retaliation, but after the initial spike in violence, they will start working together and combine forces with Drug Cartels and Motorcycle Gangs. Look how Hamas is working with the Drug Cartels in Mexico. Law enforcement considers gangs to be a very serious threat. Preppers had better realize that it isn't going be 20 gang members coming by... it might be upwards of a 100 and they are going to be well armed.


Very good points, but we should look at the density of heavy fire power in relation to the number of gang members as well as explosive resupply. A well stocked gang of 20 translates into a thinly stocked gang of 200.

Secondly, if their plan is to loot military weapons storehouses, and it's easy as just walking in and taking the desired weapons, then the same can be done by anyone else.

In the end it's a numbers game - if you are the prepper who is first on their attack march, then you have a tough battle on your hand against a well stocked and armed force. As that "army" marches onward, like a swarm of locusts consuming the spoils of war, their supply of ammo and explosives will diminish, as their casualty list will grow and be replenished by green "troops" so when the come to confront preppers further out from the epicenter of where their march began, the battles are likely to become more costly for them.


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## db2469 (Jun 11, 2012)

Besides, where are they going to get enough gasoline to drive around the countryside for weeks, months?
DB


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## Bobbb (Jan 7, 2012)

kejmack said:


> MANY gang members have US Military training, especially Urban Combat skills from places like Iraq.


Modern armed forces are like ice-bergs - the fighting force is the part that is seen above the water and the support infrastructure is all underwater and most of the mass is below water.

The Urban Combat Skills are pretty effective when you have all of the military support structure backing up the guys who are the point of the spear. Who is this gang of marauders going to call to extricate them from a position where they get pinned by sniper fire from a sniper with a height and line of fire advantage, especially when the sniper can wait them out because of his access to food, water and shelter? When the ammo in the field runs out what use are the highly specialized Urban Combat Skills?

This marauder scenario probably has more in common with ancient siege tactics or Attila the Hun's rampages than it does with rooting out insurgents in a city center in Iraq.


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## ROBIE (Jul 10, 2012)

I have a few questions: 

Who here has a group/colony/compound to rely on? 
Who here has a snipers hide at his home/appartment/condo/ranch/farm? 
Do you have dug in fighting possitions and defence works?
Do you have an LP/OP or advanced warning system for your group/colony/compound/farm/ranch?
Do you have an SOP & TO&E for your group/colony/compound ect ect...? 
Do you live in a city? country? suburbs? boonies?

Regardless of what this guy in the video says, do you have a plan of action to deal with the people that might show up with good intentions? Maybe needing a hand? A plan for friends and family that just happen to stop by looking for someplace safe and food? 
A plan for dealing with the gangs on the prowl? 

Its one thing to watch this video and call BS, or give it thumbs up, but something altoether different when you stop and take a good long hard look at your situation and wonder if you really are ready. 
Its something Im always thinking about and adjusting my preps every now and then. 

Go and read/re-read/ study the books "Patriots" and "One Seconed After" and put yourself in the story. Be honest, very brutaly honest with yourselves. I know they are just stories, books, but someone had to take the time to carefully think through all the details befor writing it out. James Wralings is no fool and his words on such matters MUST be given lots of thoughts. 

If you dont know what "Patriots", "One Seconed After" and James Wralings is, then you need to spend alot more time (months and months) on this and other forums befor opening your mouth. 


Robie


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

*This guys is all talk*

Now I did not say this guy is a credible threat. He is in my opinion a joke! What he represents, however, is a mindset, a mindset that says I am OWED, and ENTITLED, to everything I want and need to live, I am not going to do anything to earn it, and if you don't give it to me I AM GOING to take it. And its not just lay abouts who often have this mentality, I have seen it in the rich, the intelligent, and in many of my old colleagues working for uncle sam.



radio477 said:


> wow i can't believe i just wasted a few minutes of my life watching that crap


Sorry to bother you, go back to the state of denial.



radio477 said:


> If a shuffling mess of a hundred of these folks stood a chance against five well prepared, dug in determined individuals i would be very surprised. There hungry, thirsty, tired from shuffling from house to house, i am none of that,


Don't fool yourselves, this guy might be a clown, but not all of these people are stupid, all you need to do is talk to some cops about the sophistication of some gangs and you will begin to understand that while a 100 mindless zombies may pose not threat (and still I wouldn't want to be overrun by them...) *100 zombies with 1 or 2 calculating leaders and a half dozen lieutenants, and you have a problem!*

And remember, they have LOTS of easy targets! While you are scratching at the dirt to grow food, hauling water, pulling security (how is that 12 hour shift 7 days a week by the way?) they are spending their days, eating and drinking, and perfecting the art of murder to supply their habit. With a little instruction and practice they could be plenty dangerous to five over tired defenders.



Bobbb said:


> Who has the advantage, those who prepare their land to defend against an assault or those who have the numbers to storm a stronghold?
> 
> This guy is basically ignoring what we learned from WWI and waves of human assault...


While we are quoting military history let's not forget WWII's lesson learned with dire result's on the Maginot Line. Fixed positions are a thing of the past, in fact for the disciplined and well supplied attacker they have been a thing of the past since Roman times! But, let's assume they are not going to wait you out, because you have 10 years of food, and that they don't figure out the source of your water supply and poison it... Still, you don't have castle walls, and you most likely don't have automatic weapons. A shrewd and merciless leader with enough men could literally over run you with a little thinking.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

Wester5491 said:


> Besides Throughout history we've seen this point put to use already, such as the afghan rebels fighting the soviet union.


BTW they used hit and run tactics, how does that protect your stash??????

Oh, and they were re-supplied by countless villages who they protected and who else, oh yeah the :gaah:*CIA*:gaah:!

Do you have a CIA to re-supply you? That would be a really useful prep...



Bobbb said:


> The only way that the marauders could have an advantage is if they have access to more powerful weapons.


An M4 fires at a rate of 700-900 rpm. 100 people with an assortment of weapons could be firing upward to 10k rpm. Sure they will have access to more powerful weapons, all they need to do is raid a few small police departments or national guard armories, but even if they didn't, 100 men with rifles packs a pretty good keep your head down punch.


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## BillM (Dec 29, 2010)

The urban gang members will not likely leave the citys. Other than a trip to the penitentry , most of them never leave the neighborhood they live in.

Look at your neighbors . Who are they and what do they mean to you? What do you mean to them? Who do you trust now? Who could you trust then?
Who are the criminals in your community ? They will be your immediate problem in a collapsed sociaty. This won't last long before most of the people you fear will be gone.
You are more likely to have to shoot someone you know than you are to have to shoot a stranger. You better prepare to do that rather than preparing to shoot Zombies. Your Zombie is likely to have a familiar name.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

If 10% of the population are like the ones on this forum and can/will defend themselves that still leaves 90% for the thugs. Just sayin'


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## Berta (Apr 8, 2011)

The part where he said they will remember who the preppers are and where they live is a big red flag. OPSEC now might save your hide later. This is why I don't tell anyone what we have.


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

hiwall said:


> If 10% of the population are like the ones on this forum and can/will defend themselves that still leaves 90% for the thugs. Just sayin'


There a lot of the 90% that are "sheeple" that are not prepping... but won't lower themselves down to "thug" status....

The thugs will take some of them out, but many will fight back, or at least slow the thugs down giving others an advance warning.


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

Thugs>sheeple
Thugs>Thugs.
Preppers > AFTER THEY THIN THEMSELVES OUT.

All we need to do is make sure they go elsewhere long enough to weaken down a bit.BUT as for myself,I'll be joining a militia or large group ASAP.


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## ComputerGuy (Dec 10, 2010)

I think people need to realize one thing or two things:
1. They are out there, the bad people, and bad people are like roaches, they gather and eat their way though and leave crap and death
2. The ones in the prisons will become their leaders, and they are not stupid.
3. Bravado is great on line, but when one starts doing despicable acts, things that will make you vomit just thinking about them, you might want to work on team and community building skills.
4. I know that this stuff can happen because I saw it first hand in Rwanda. The people commiting those atrocities are amateurs compared to the scum we have here.

JMHO


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## LincTex (Apr 1, 2011)

Magus said:


> All we need to do is make sure they go elsewhere long enough to weaken down a bit. BUT as for myself, I will be joining a militia or large group ASAP.


It will all depend on the area where one lives. I fear for those living on the outskirts of large cities, as the inner-city locusts will gorge themselves on them.

Once that begins to happen, that will be the wake-up call for those further out who "didn't think it could/would happen to them" to get organized... so that once the gangs arrive they can be dealt with.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

One of the biggest factors is where you live. I expect the federal government to block roads leading to and from big cities after the collapse just like they did after Katrina. 

I live in a small town in northeastern Wisconsin. I'm a good distance away from the nearest major highway. I don't expect armed gangs from Chicago or Milwaukee to get this far. I'll have enough problems with my neighbors, I'm sure. There are hundreds of people who live within a one-mile radius of where I live.

Yes, if I live in a suburb of Chicago I'm doomed. I get that. Armed gangs will go from house to house to rob, rape, loot, and kill. They'll take casualties from anyone with a gun. Their high casualty rates will cause those gangs to lose numbers rapidly. I read somewhere that homeowners with guns have a 4 to 1 advantage over intruders. If you have a gang of 50 people that's a lot of people to feed and a lot of houses to loot every single day. You'll be extinct in a matter of weeks if not days.

Since preppers are about 3% of the population and gun owners are about 50%, there will be a lot of people to kill that won't have any food. That means they'll have to take 17 houses for every one that has food. Those are pretty good numbers as far as the death of gangs are concerned.

The time of year will be a big factor too. A fall collapse heading into winter will doom anyone not prepared for it. In the northern half of Wisconsin we have snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to the end of March during a typical winter. You get two feet of snow on the ground by early December and nobody without a snowmobile is going very far.

So, in conclusion, I won't waste a minute of sleep worrying about armed gangs.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

The big concern I see is to not be one of the first few folks they visit.
Why? Because unless they completely overwhelm someone who doesn't get a chance to defend himself, they'll be attrited.
A gang of 20 on offense should, if properly trained, be able to take out 6 folks on defense. But I don't foresee any quarter being given on either side. And what happens to their casualties? Do they even have a medic?
A proper sniper will target their command and control. Can the third or fourth ranking member take over without a loss of effectiveness?
I foresee maybe 4-5 successful raids before the gang's effectiveness is seriously compromised to the point of making them targets of opportunity for any competent rifleman.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

*ASS u & me*



BillM said:


> The urban gang members will not likely leave the citys. Other than a trip to the penitentry , most of them never leave the neighborhood they live in.


Why do you think this? I plan to leave the city, and most people I know would too! Why do you think the urban poor wouldn't get the message when the water and power turned off? I can't tell you how often I hear the line, if anything happens in the city I am going to come visit you in the stixs. That's fine with me, I want more bodies who I know and can trust to help me work and defend my homestead, but what about those YOU are unwilling to put up, never mind those who don't know anyone in the country who will help them survive and so their own plan is to get out of the dead zone and take what they need to survive.

I am sure in weeks 3-8 they will pillage their own neighborhood and neighbors, but when that is all gone they will move outward, bypassing the urbs and burbs where choas has already reigned supreme, until they come to the country.

Now, there is a lot of country out there, and hopefuly most of us will be tucked away in a little hidey hole part of the world away from main roads and thoroughfares, but are you really willing to risk everything by not taking security seriously? Sure OPsec is important, but so long as there is a road leading to your house the beans have been spilt that someone lives in this direction. Are your really going to depend on you assumption that they are going to stay put? Or that they will necessarily be disorganized? Or that 1-6 people could hold off 100?

My experience in crowd control suggests that when a crowd is panicked (or starving) they will move in every direction (chaotically) away from the perceived source of danger or toward an anticipated source of relief, moving often with tremendous violence and disregard for life. And while the 90% who are not preppers may not be thugs, if you take away all hope from a man, even many "good men" will compromise their principles. Sure, some will die of starvation or disease, others will die from te violence and standing up for their principles, but looking at the values and character of most American's today do you really think that many will not buy into the consequentialist argument, the ends justify the means?


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## Freyadog (Jan 27, 2010)

*Andi said:


> No, you need a plan ... think moat ... :2thumb:
> 
> Moats were excavated around castles and fortifications as part of the defensive ... now a moat of ol days can be rather different from today...  ~
> 
> ...


Don't forget the alligators for that moat.


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## Emerald (Jun 14, 2010)

Naw. A proper moat Doubles as the latrine. Around the castle were rooms called Guarder-robes (spelling) and they were the bathrooms in castles. They went straight to the moat.. Cuz plain old water is not gonna stop anyone. but only a determined person is gonna cross a huge open sewer to get to you.


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## kejmack (May 17, 2011)

A moat is not going to stop a grenade launcher. Ask any city cop, gangs have these weapons.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

*ASS u & me*

You know what they say about assumptions?



BillM said:


> The urban gang members will not likely leave the citys. Other than a trip to the penitentry , most of them never leave the neighborhood they live in.


Why do you think that they will stay in the city? I know I wouldn't, especially not after loosing power and water no matter how many supplies I had. Like animals hungry people think with their stomachs.



BillS said:


> One of the biggest factors is where you live. I expect the federal government to block roads leading to and from big cities after the collapse just like they did after Katrina.


Maybe yes, maybe no, but if we are talking about a true TEOTWAWKI then even if they did, how long would they be able to keep it up, and how thorough of a blockade would it be?



BillS said:


> I live in a small town in northeastern Wisconsin. I'm a good distance away from the nearest major highway. I don't expect armed gangs from Chicago or Milwaukee to get this far.


Why not? If they wipe out all the food between Chicago and you why is it impossible that they will find you? Sure, most of us hope that our hidey holes, well off the main roads go undetected and unmolested, but what if we are discovered. Are you really saying that hoping that you win this life and death game of hide and seek is your SOLE plan? That doesn't seem to be very prepared.



BillS said:


> They'll take casualties from anyone with a gun. Their high casualty rates will cause those gangs to lose numbers rapidly. I read somewhere that homeowners with guns have a 4 to 1 advantage over intruders. If you have a gang of 50 people that's a lot of people to feed and a lot of houses to loot every single day. You'll be extinct in a matter of weeks if not days.


You are assuming they are 100% stupid and 100% unorganized. Once people have realized that the rules have changed the THUGS will organize. In the SHTF situation there are only two viable options: self-sufficiency or murderous theft. As stealing becomes FAR more dangerous, the thieves will become far more brutal and will gravitate to those who can help them steal without getting killed. They may pillage their own neighborhoods first, but as they realize that things have changed, and as they organize, they will first target large stockpiles of food, weapons, and gas--that exist around cities. Then, once well supplied, they can afford to be much more selective in their targets.

A lot is made of the so-called defenders advantage, which is after all only a 3 or 4 to one advantage, but as Von Clauswitz notes the advantage is only experienced when: 
_all means are prepared to the utmost; the army is fit for war and familiar with it; the general will let the enemy come on, not from confused indecision and fear, but by his own choice, coolly and deliberately; fortresses are undaunted by the prospect of a siege, and finally a stouthearted populace is no more afraid of the enemy than he of it. _​

Making sure that this advantage is in place is the whole point of this post. Sure OpSec and a isolated bug out location help, BUT so long as you have a well established road leading to your house a certain degree of OpSec is blown!


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

BillS said:


> One of the biggest factors is where you live. I expect the federal government to block roads leading to and from big cities after the collapse just like they did after Katrina.
> 
> I live in a small town in northeastern Wisconsin. I'm a good distance away from the nearest major highway. I don't expect armed gangs from Chicago or Milwaukee to get this far. I'll have enough problems with my neighbors, I'm sure. There are hundreds of people who live within a one-mile radius of where I live.
> 
> ...


Good Operational Analysis Bill:beercheer:


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## TheLazyL (Jun 5, 2012)

Bobbb said:


> ...
> Who has the inherent advantage, those on defense of those on offense?
> Who has the advantage, those who know the land they are defending or those who arrive onto new territory and are on offense?
> Who has the advantage, those who prepare their land to defend against an assault or those who have the numbers to storm a stronghold?...


The answers to your questions are; defense, defending, defend against an assault _IF_ the offense, offense and numbers to storm have lost the element of surprise.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

Padre said:


> Maybe yes, maybe no, but if we are talking about a true TEOTWAWKI then even if they did, how long would they be able to keep it up, and how thorough of a blockade would it be?
> 
> Why not? If they wipe out all the food between Chicago and you why is it impossible that they will find you? Sure, most of us hope that our hidey holes, well off the main roads go undetected and unmolested, but what if we are discovered. Are you really saying that hoping that you win this life and death game of hide and seek is your SOLE plan? That doesn't seem to be very prepared.
> 
> ...


It depends on how good the blockade is and what it's made out of. Maybe they block on-ramps with city vehicles.

You don't have to assume the criminals are stupid. They're just untrained people who don't know the neighborhood, the terrain, or your house. I think the defensive advantage stands as long as the attackers aren't vastly superior to you in skills or firepower.

The criminals won't make it to me from Chicago because the odds of them taking casualties when they attack a house are too high. And they'll have to take a lot of houses to find enough food. That's why I think they won't last long. Skokie, Illinois has a population of about 60,000. For the sake of argument, let's say there are 15,000 houses with half of the people armed. I would expect every person with a gun to arm themselves and be alert once they know the power is off and isn't coming on again. If one gang member is killed taking every tenth house they're not going to last too long.

Not only that, there are a lot of directions they can go in after the leave Chicago. Assuming of course that they make it out alive after exhausting all the homes in the suburbs.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

There are a couple of other things to consider too. There could easily be 100,000 dangerous people in Chicago. Maybe ten times that number.

I think it's possible that the criminals would take a lot of their casualties from the neighbors of the people they're attacking. If a group of thugs is attacking the people across the street from me I'd better try to take out a couple of them right away. Instead of waiting for them to come after me.


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## BillM (Dec 29, 2010)

*Urban Gang members*



Padre said:


> Why do you think this? I plan to leave the city, and most people I know would too! Why do you think the urban poor wouldn't get the message when the water and power turned off? I can't tell you how often I hear the line, if anything happens in the city I am going to come visit you in the stixs. That's fine with me, I want more bodies who I know and can trust to help me work and defend my homestead, but what about those YOU are unwilling to put up, never mind those who don't know anyone in the country who will help them survive and so their own plan is to get out of the dead zone and take what they need to survive.
> 
> I am sure in weeks 3-8 they will pillage their own neighborhood and neighbors, but when that is all gone they will move outward, bypassing the urbs and burbs where choas has already reigned supreme, until they come to the country.
> 
> ...


By unban Gangs , I assume you mean the Bloods, Crips, MS13, and so on.

These people will cling to the norm as long as possable. They control sections of citys . They already are in a possition to take what ever they want. They would fear leaving the known for the unknown. they would fear vacating their neighborhoods and allowing compeating gangs to move in to their home territory. Biker Gangs are diffrent. They would go marauding but they would likely attack isolated homes and businesses rather than small communtiys of people in a rural setting.

In the first six months , I estimate the death rate will be as high as 90% of the population. 

I was a Deputy Sheriff. I dealt with some members of a gang. You arn't a gang member. You arn't going marauding. Your intent was to make people rethink going it alone.


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## hiwall (Jun 15, 2012)

I would think things would gradually get worse and worse. The rioting in cities would get bad. I would guess when all the riots finally ended much of the cities would be burnt. After the downtown areas burned the riots would move to the suburbs and they would also burn. I think most people here expect riots. Riots always include fire. All the guns won't stop a fire from burning whole blocks.


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## BillM (Dec 29, 2010)

*You are correct*



hiwall said:


> I would think things would gradually get worse and worse. The rioting in cities would get bad. I would guess when all the riots finally ended much of the cities would be burnt. After the downtown areas burned the riots would move to the suburbs and they would also burn. I think most people here expect riots. Riots always include fire. All the guns won't stop a fire from burning whole blocks.


Guns won't stop contagious illnesses or dehydration , hunger or fuel and repair vehicles. 90% in six months will die. The trick is to avoide contact with most of the unprepaired population and to avoid conflict with anyone. Small wounds will prove fatal.


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## Berta (Apr 8, 2011)

I just watched the second video and realized this guy is from MY STATE. I'm about an hour from Columbia and 10 miles from the main highway. My area is rural and I live on a dead end dirt road with maybe 20 houses, most are related to each other. Everyone here owns guns and I'm sure would band together to protect our homes.


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## Marcus (May 13, 2012)

I agree with BillM.
The urban gangs will exploit those areas they can control first. Then they'll probably fight it out with other neighboring gangs for resources that are becoming scarcer by the day. Then they'll finally realize that the cities are deathtraps and seek to exploit the surrounding areas * which will almost surely already have been picked clean.* Then they'll finally make it to the rural areas which will also already have been gleaned. In a rural setting, most of their urban survival skillsets will be useless so they'll have a steep Darwinistic learning curve. In my experience, most rural folks have at least one firearm for snakes and other undesireable critters. The thugs will be just another undesireable critter.


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## Anvilandhammer (Apr 12, 2012)

I'd like to bring up the point that most urbanites have little to no knowledge of necessary survival skills. Maybe they went to a youth camp once or watched an episode of Man vs Wild, but it won't help them in a disaster event. I guess I'm trying to say that without amenities a lot of people are going to die from things "we" overcome like second nature. Without a microwave or stove they need to cook, how many will know how to properly and safely cook over a fire? To me this is a no brainier, but there are tons of people who have no idea what to do. Without running water or bottled water how many people actually know to/ how to purify water they get from whatever source. It's hard to be a thieving murderer when your butthole is a faucet, and that's if they get lucky as far as what they could contract from dirty water. Hunting and gathering food is iffy. Generally, the urban population has no experience in hunting or foraging. Try living off squirrel meat when your weapon is a 9mm. I'm even more certain that other than blatantly obvious fruit and veg sources(apple tree, tomatoes, etc.) "they" couldn't point out a wild edible to save their life... Which it could come down to. Lol.

In conclusion, among other reasons, a gangs pilgrimage to the country side triples the odds against them even if their raids and looting properly supply them. Not to say these folks are incapable of adapting because chaos demands adaptation or death. But Darwinism is a great equalizer.


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## Olefaithfull (Jul 26, 2012)

It was difficult to stomach but then again....all you need to do to this guy is take his inhaler.


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## Tirediron (Jul 12, 2010)

From what I saw the actor in the video was trying to get the point that there is safety in numbers, and organized groups will be a threat, but if a large group is mobile they will make a lot of noise. and if they are without mechanized transportation then travel and staying supplied will become a huge problem for them, In established rural areas they will prolly meet well armed well fed defenders, not people cowering in their houses. Most people will only want to go to places that they have been before, not just run rampant down every road that they come to. The way I see it gangs will be a big problem for people in cities. Time and attrition should help those further out.


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## bahramthered (Mar 10, 2012)

I'm sorry I don't have time to read all of this thread but I'm going to throw my thoughts in.

I really think it comes down to four things. 

A: The quality of people you have on your side (that includes physical fitness, skill sets, discipline, courage, and motivation)
B: How many people you have
C: equipment and supplies (including your fortress)
D: The effectiveness of your leader/commander.

Anyone who has two and a half of those points in their favor is probably going to win (within reason).


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## Jack Aubrey (May 24, 2009)

I don't buy into the rag-tag ganster "army" theory. Once the gang reaches a certain size in fighting/ personality clashes will start to take there toll. If these savages have access to military grade weaponry, then so will we. Heck, I have an acquaintance that legally owns an M60 machine gun!
Something else to consider. If this gangster hoard is moving across the land, then absolutely *NOgovernment exists. Great for a novel, or a Hollywood movie, not so much in real life. But let's pretend. Along with the total absence of government will be the absence of critical care surgical facilities, trained personnel, medicines and all else involved. 
A wound that would have been handled with a course of antibiotics and a tetanus shot now becomes life threatening. Most "gangsters" can't hit anyone except a bystander, not the one they are trying to shoot. Even if all I have is my No.4mk1, I'm a rifleman. I can still hit at least 36 out of 40 out to 300 metres. Well, maybe not now,I wear glasses in my middle age, but a hit does not have to kill to be effective.
However, belonging to a group of like minded folks will increase the odds in your favour. JA*


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