# How would the city near you deal with SHTF



## cowboyhermit

I am a country person, no way around it, don't mind visiting the city for the day but after that it is just draining. I live far from the city, and even a ways from the nearest town, so that's my bias.

What I am curious about is how well people on here feel the cities (I would consider at least around 100 000 or more to be a city) near them would deal with disasters in comparison with other cities.

While a lot of people no doubt feel that cities are all the same and any major disaster would bring them all down, this just isn't the case.

Some cities are in much more precarious circumstances with things like water, environment issues like extreme heat that would exacerbate the situation in a grid down scenario, overall population density of the area, race relations, etc.

For example there are 2 "big" cities in Alberta; Calgary and Edmonton. 
Both cities have over 1 million people, and are stuck in the middle of a region that exports huge amounts of food and energy (oil and gas). They both have a lot of diversity but ethnic and economic strife is very nearly non-existent and has been so historically. Sure there are factions but nothing like (imo) what I have seen in other places.

When major disasters have happened in these cities (Edmonton was devastated by a tornado years ago, both have had flooding, etc) there was never a hint of a breakdown of civility, quite the opposite in fact. The recent example in Calgary is a good example too, huge section of downtown is without power, 5000 residents and 2100 businesses, it will last a week, and ... not even a story really. The city offered to put anyone up in hotels who was effected and only *10%* took them up on it.



> Among city officials, only Mayor Naheed Nenshi would posit a possible explanation, albeit a cheeky one for a city bedevilled lately by fire, September snow and flooding.
> 
> "I have been doing my own analysis of the situation, and I have pretty much ruled out zombies and aliens. Zombie aliens, however, still remain in question."


Of the two, I tend to think Calgary would be a bit better off, slightly milder climate, cleaner water nearby, maybe even the huge amount of wind generation in the area. I know Edmonton a bit better so perhaps I haven't seen the downsides to Calgary (besides the sprawl).

BUT, I would take either of those cities over pretty much ANY other city of a similar size I have ever seen. Cities on the west coast like Vancouver and even Victoria imo would fare much, much worse in the majority of situations.

Anyways, just thinking "out-loud" but would be very interested to hear others' opinions of cities they know relatively well.


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## NaeKid

Here is a story from Downtown ...

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/1...kened-downtown-after-a-weekend-without-power/

*Lights out: A view from Calgary's darkened downtown after a weekend without power*



> Flashlight in hand, Amyn Kanji stared out the darkened storefront of the House of Quality Drycleaning, a little shop that sits smack in the middle of Calgary's de-electrified downtown.
> 
> "I'm scared people need their clothes," said Mr. Kanji, the son of the owner. "There are many people who don't carry many clothes in their closet. That's why we like to open for a few hours, at least, a day. So people can pick up their clothes."
> 
> Of course, there isn't much cleaning going on; hundreds of dress shirts, blouses and trousers covered in thin plastic sit idly on a dry cleaner's rail that won't run. If a customer does come in - not one has, yet - Mr. Kanji will have to hike through the densely packed collection of fresh clothing, searching for the ticket with his lantern.
> 
> "It is difficult, yes, but I don't want to upset my customers."
> 
> Most of this section of downtown was abandoned over the long weekend. Of the 5,000 residents and 2,100 businesses affected by Saturday's freak underground electrical fire and power loss, only a few remain in the newly medieval 17-square-block section of downtown.
> 
> The city has said it could take until Thursday for the damaged infrastructure to be repaired.
> 
> The outage is affecting one of the densest areas of the city, an area known for high rise rentals, condos and office towers. Worst of all, the lack of power has effectively cut water pressure to the top-most floors, leaving residents to hike up dozens of storeys, schlepping water and non-perishables.
> 
> The city still doesn't know what caused the fire, and there are no signs of it from the ground level. The damage has been confined to the tunnels beneath the roads; all that can be seen from above are frantic power workers, flashing orange lights and a few closed-off city blocks.
> 
> As after last year's floods that also shut downtown Calgary, Honda generators have once again been plugged into the grey boxes that power traffic lights, filling much of the downtown with a dull hum, and the faintly nauseating smell of gas.
> 
> The outage has shut a few key buildings, including the McDougall Centre - the centre of provincial government in Calgary - and the city's gleaming glass courthouse, now ironically blocked off with police tape.
> 
> Kay's Food Market, the only proper grocery store for many residents in the afflicted zone, was closed on Tuesday, although manager Mike Ghbari said he tried to help out seniors who lived in the area with a few non-perishable food items.
> 
> "We're just dealing with it. It's very tiring because day and night, last night we were up before 5 a.m. and working until almost midnight."
> 
> Mr. Ghbari predicts his store has lost tens of thousands of dollars in fruit, cheese, frozen meals and meats.
> 
> A small corner of the store was lit by a flickering fluorescent powered by a generator. The rest was visible only by candlelight, which cast a dim glow on overripe bananas and fading watermelons. Already, the thin early taint of rot was in the air.
> 
> Most of the food has to be cleared away as soon as possible, Mr. Ghbari said, pointing to a half-empty display case with a few stacks of cupcakes in it.
> 
> "This is all gone. We have two freezers that are dead," he said. "I hope we're covered, I just talked to our insurance people but you never really know what the situation is.
> 
> "We need to get some light in here so we can see."
> 
> In the back room, mechanics and electricians worked on the refrigerators and lights using small flashlights, but Mr. Ghbari wasn't optimistic.
> 
> "There's nothing you can do. Things happen, and you have to really take care of things and move on. Management usually has to be calm," he said.
> 
> Red Cross members have carried hundreds of water bottles up dozens of flights of stairs to ensure residents have enough to drink and flush their toilets. They also provided batteries, flashlights and blankets, although the weather has been blissfully and unseasonably warm so far.
> 
> The city has set up about 200 cots for Calgarians on the Stampede grounds; it also paid for about 350 hotel rooms on Monday. So far more than 550 displaced residents had registered at the municipality's reception centre, seeking a place to stay.
> 
> Much of the affected area is surprisingly lively despite the darkened shop windows; pedestrians continue to walk by, and shopkeepers keep vigil for customers who probably won't come as city crews do their best to make progress.
> 
> "The bills don't stop," explained Mr. Kanji. "The bills keep on going."


I am at work today, everything is normal-business at my shop. For the majority of Calgarians, it is a normal day. The few highlighted in the story posted are having the rough end of things ... but, I expect it will all come together.


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## RevWC

I grew up in Los Angeles and with 3,000,000 plus in the city and over 12,000,000 in the entire county there would be nothing less than complete chaos.


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## Tirediron

Calgary probably would deal with a SHTF situation as well or probably much better than many cities because the Mayor actually gets stuff happening, but if the fan hard there will be a big mess, if the rescue types are overwhelmed the sheeple will bleet, and do nothing to help themselves.


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## cowboyhermit

I agree that if it was a true shtf deal, the cities would probably be unrecognizable. Sounds like the three of us from the area think that these cities would have at least as good of odds as other cities of similar size. I wonder if others feel the same way about the ones close to them for one reason or another.

RevWC, that certainly seems like a safe bet. I would figure L.A to be one of the worst positioned, density, racial and socioeconomic tensions still hanging around(or so I hear), etc.

I will add Toronto to my more troubled list even though I don't know it very well, 5-6 million people is scary. The fact that 50% of the population was not born in Canada is a wildcard. The culture there seems more than sufficient to override any ethnic clashes now, but is it strong enough for a real test :dunno: don't know it well enough.


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## Davarm

It looks like we're about to see how Dallas/Ft Worth is going to deal with a SHTF situation, another case of ebola was confirmed - Will let you know how they deal with it.


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## Geek999

NYC will break down quickly absent power. The good news is it's an island which will protect the surrounding areas from a quick exodus.


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## Sentry18

I am on the Emergency Management Team for the county and city in which I reside. Each committee meets once a month (give or take) to plan out local government responses for everything from pandemics to severe weather to active shooter incidents. These groups love to theorize and plagiarize and often times rely heavily on assistance or intervention by the next larger entity (city - county - state - federal). They have policies, procedures, best practices, assigned roles (read as: assigned scapegoats) and lots of reflective vests. How the municipality would handle a SHTF event would depend entirely on the severity of event and the assistance they received. The larger scale the event, the more assistance they would require or the more likely it would become Lord of the Flies around here. They do just fine with the small stuff and the short term but if we are talking true SHTF I would not put a lot of faith in the cities ability to deal with it. We had a small riot some years ago and the city sent in their LEO's to stop it, but then very quickly reversed their decision and pulled the officers back 2-3 blocks. As the rioters progressed and were causing property damage, the potential for injury or death grew steadily. Yet the city just waited for rescue pulling their officers back again and again. So the Governor ordered us in instead and we were able to stop it within an hour by targeting ring leaders and using a few selective non-lethal munitions. The city council could not wait to get on the news and tout how "mutual efforts and cooperation" saved the day. They patted themselves on the back and when election time came around got on TV and talked about being in the command center making key decisions. Yeah, right. That was when I decided that having a bug out plan was essential.


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## IlliniWarrior

every city will be different .... because of the ethnic percentage involved some cities will remain under control .... others like Detroit and Memphis will just totally explode and implode ..... some cities that are divided and basically segregated will be a mixed bag depending on the administration ..... if the mayor and governor is willing to go nose-to-nose with the violence/looting/arson/rioting - they may survive .... sorry St Louis - you are a prime example of pussy power at work .....


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## hiwall

:crossfinger::soapbox1::soapbox2::ghost::dunno::dunno::dunno:vract:vract::gaah::lalala::lalala:

I think this sums up my area.


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## Quills

We lived in Calgary for several years and, I agree, when TSHTF there, people do tend to pull together, laugh off what they can, and get on with it. Additionally, the city has an awesome mayor who truly LEADS, with humour and good will -- that makes all the difference, IMHO. My experience of Edmonton has been similar, but less so -- if that makes any sense.

We also lived in Toronto for nine years -- still have family there -- and I wouldn't want to be ANYWHERE near that city in a true SHTF situation. Small neighbourhoods would pull together, but they'd be overwhelmed by those who felt no "kinship" with the neighbouring communities.

My province has two major cities, but only one, Winnipeg, meets your minimum population requirement. The population of Winnipeg is, the last time I checked, around 650,000. Brandon, which is closer, is less than 50,000. We're a sparsely populated province, but I wouldn't want to be near either should TSHTF. Our small community would pull together (they always have), but the cities would be a problem. There are a lot of good people in both, but there is a LOT of entitlement mentality, as well.


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## readytogo

*Le`s pray we never have to find out*

On my city of birth in Cuba and after one of the strongest hurricanes hit neighbors help each other, we drove to the country to where the worse damage had occurred to help our family there; many family members showed up it actually turn into a big family gadering, here in Miami and after Andrew in 92 we were worn by the local authorities that we were on our own after major looting broke out in the worse affected areas of the city, the national guard had to be called to stop all the violence, my neighbor and I where on guard on our city block, power was off for many days and we saw many unknown vehicles drive by scouting the area but I guess seeing people with weapons seating on their front porch and drink on hand drove them off. My friends actually set up tents in front of their damage home to protect it, these jokers were fully arm for combat. No one really knows how people are going to react to stress; in major events in Middle America we have seen neighbors helping each other but in other areas violence and chaos, we just have to hope and pray we never have to find out.


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## Genevieve

I live about 2 hours from the deecee/balt area ( depending on traffic it could take longer). I have 2 mountains in between me and them. I can guarantee that those cities would explode into mass chaos.
So not only would there be people trying to get away from the animals( and lets face it they'll be desperate and desperate people do desperate things no matter the consequences) that would being trying to take over but then later on when all supplies are gone the animals would then turn their eyes to the countryside and what was beyond the mountains.

I have no doubt that should something happen I will be fighting for my right to live and I will stand and fight with all I have.
I will also destroy everything here if I have to with no problem


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## TheLazyL

Way way back when I was young I worked for a small Town.

A major snow storm left 18 inches of snow on the Town's streets. The County Highway pulled all their snowplows off the country roads. The Town's little snow plow was a joke (one ton, manual shift, manual steering and the snowplow was narrower then the truck's track). Town was impassable for 4 days until they hired a earth mover and 2 bulldozers to open the town's streets. Another couple of days before county remember to get their road open to the Town. 

Proof to me that we couldn't count on the State, County or local City to help the Town out.

It took us a few years of prodding and pushing the Town Board before we purchased a real snow plow (12') and a real truck (10 ton). The next major snow storm we kept the Town's streets cleared AND at least one lane of country road out to the closest State Road open!


Wastewater Treatment plant had a stationary generator that would run the entire plant. When the Town built the new water plant we fought long on hard to retire the 6 volt positive ground 4 cylinder engine with PTO with a natural gas whole plant generator. 

Spring stormed rolled thru and the Town lost power for 2 days. Town's people still had water, fire protection (water tower full) and could flush all the stools they wanted. Local City called us up to see if we had any generators we could loan them. They were close to being without water and sewer was backing up (no power to the lift stations).

I've said all of that to say this.

I've come to the conclusion that most people live in cities so they can assume less responsibilities for themselves and rely more on the Government. I believe my conclusion was confirmed by the results of the last 2 Presidential elections. When SHTF 80% will be freezing/dehydrating in the house, no water, no food, whining about "woe is me" as they take their last breath. 10% will taking advantage of the 80% and causing trouble for the other 10%.


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## cowboyhermit

Thanks everyone for the info and opinions, pretty much what I expected but I thought maybe there were people who thought some other cities might be in a better position than most.



Sentry18 said:


> We had a small riot some years ago


Both Edmonton and Calgary have had some "minor" rioting over ... Hockey of course  While it got a lot of people (including me) angry or disgusted, it was essentially some drunk kids, not representative of any underlying rift or divide in the community. Interesting for sure but I definitely think not all riots are equal.



IlliniWarrior said:


> every city will be different .... because of the ethnic percentage involved some cities will remain under control


The trouble in predicting what would happen is that it isn't just the percentages, it is the way the population is integrated and the over-all culture. Many example through history show this to be true, sometimes during a time of difficulties ethnic backgrounds are forgotten while in others it is a chance for the underlying tensions to boil over.



mike_dippert said:


> Interesting note I found. Carmel Indiana is north of Indy just outside of the I-465 loop. A city of 80,000 people with an income of $85,000 per capita. It's the 33rd safest city in the country, and was some magazine's best place to live in 2013. Funny how 20 miles can make such a huge difference in demographics and statistics.
> I highly doubt it will stay safe if Indy's SHTF.


I was pretty much always looking at the entire metro area because I think that is pretty what will determine how the situation will pan out. Sure, a suburb or satellite city might seal itself off from some things, but in the end I think the whole area will fare roughly the same.



Quills said:


> My province has two major cities, but only one, Winnipeg, meets your minimum population requirement. The population of Winnipeg is, the last time I checked, around 650,000. Brandon, which is closer, is less than 50,000. We're a sparsely populated province, but I wouldn't want to be near either should TSHTF. Our small community would pull together (they always have), but the cities would be a problem. There are a lot of good people in both, but there is a LOT of entitlement mentality, as well.


I never realized Brandon was that small, seemed bigger to me. They sure have a lot of industry and such for a city that size.

I didn't mean that number as a hard limit, it just seems to me that at some point there is a fundamental shift from a town to a city. For example, in a community of 5-10 000 or so, everyone pretty much has some sort of connection, albeit sometimes tenuous. There are only a few schools, only a few... well, everything. Of course you don't know everyone personally but you know someone they do, or a member of their family. Not that this somehow makes them fundamentally more resilient, there are often ongoing disputes in towns too, it is just a different animal than a "city" imho.


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## Tirediron

Cities are weird, Olds Alberta one of the most AG based places around, has a in town population of very urban type people, they look at you funny if you have cow manure on your boots.


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## Woody

Tirediron said:


> Cities are weird, Olds Alberta one of the most AG based places around, has a in town population of very urban type people, *they look at you funny if you have cow manure on your boots.*


They are just jealous is all, pay them no mind.


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## bigg777

A little over an hour outside of Philthadelphia, FUBAR!


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## Geek999

bigg777 said:


> A little over an hour outside of Philthadelphia, FUBAR!


The question is about after SHTF, not about now.


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## weedygarden

I don't think any of us can accurately answer that question. To me, that is like asking if it is going to snow on November 12? Do you think it is going to?

I see this question as similar to the question, "What if ...?"

We want our communities to do well, but given all the stuff going on, I am more and more pessimistic about the possibilities anywhere. The only thing that I know is what I can do.


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## notyermomma

I lived in downtown Louisville KY during the years of 2008/2009, when we had three natural disasters.

The first one was an extension of Hurricane Ike. It knocked out utilities to half a million people statewide and took three weeks to get everyone back on line. It left behind three weeks of heavenly balmy fall weather, which is really the best case scenario for people to lose their utilities. As it was, the Salvation Army was distributing sandwiches deep in the millionaire exurbs because people couldn't use their kitchens (although privately, nobody felt sympathy for the millionaires. Lots of restaurants were still open, after all.) For the rest of us, there were a lot of impromptu cookouts as people had to empty their freezers. Some grocery stores and restaurants contacted large churches who were able to pull together last-minute community dinners and distributions.

It was a very helpful rehearsal when the Real Deal hit a few months later. This time, it knocked out utilities to half a million people statewide and took three weeks to get everyone back on line. Now that people were freezing in the dark, there were some fatalities as people operated generators indoors. The city opened up shelters that weren't widely used, but hotels and pet boarding kennels were booked solid for a radius of 100 miles. The YMCA opened up its branches for people to use their showers and electricity. With both of these situations, crime actually went _down_ because of all the police and utility workers positioned to guard live downed power lines.

When the flash flood hit, people were at a point where they just groaned and rolled their eyes (what, _again?!?_) The news footage made it look like Katrina, but it all washed away in a couple hours. All in all, I was proud of my neighbors because we came together and helped each other out. It's given me a lot of optimism about human nature.

In my current city of 167K people, I found out the hard way that they only plow the streets downtown when it snows. People (other than me) still drove, thanks to icy grooves worn in the snow. But it was two and a half weeks of bitter cold, power outages, and warming centers. I gained phenomenal respect for my city's bus drivers, and finally turned into a prepper. :congrat:


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## bigg777

Same difference.


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## notyermomma

Mike, you're right about the neighborhoods right along the river and just south of downtown. Every city has its trouble spots, and those areas are salty relics of the city's history as a layover for sailors as their freight was ported around the shallows in the Ohio River. But overall its a first- class city with a lot to offer. I enjoyed my time there.


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## cowboyhermit

weedygarden said:


> I don't think any of us can accurately answer that question. To me, that is like asking if it is going to snow on November 12? Do you think it is going to?


I can't say if it will snow on November 12th. I can look at history and come up with a reasonable estimate of it's likelihood but more to the point I can say it's MUCH less likely to snow on August 12th.

Granted, there are many factors in a situation like this and even if one had a real understanding of them all, there is always that chance that the most unlikely even will occur. In farming and much else in life, we try to be prepared for an event like that but at the same time it is necessary to play the odds, I will have the blade on the tractor and the winter clothes out in November but in August I just can't afford to.


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## Tirediron

isn't asking what if ?? a huge part of the prepper mind set, If you just wait for things to fall into place, good or bad, you are part of the problem like the rest of the sheeple. 

For those of us who live well outside of cities a simple everyday(for commuters) traffic jam is a bit of an eye opener, it only takes one idiot to stop things. 

The big test for any "emergency" plan is the lack of outside help which would happen if there was a big wide spread event.


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## fteter

I think I'm more fortunate than most urban or suburban folks in a SHTF situation. I live outside of Salt Lake City, on the south end of the valley. Left the greater Los Angeles area about three years ago specifically because I believe Los Angeles is a [email protected]!t-storm waiting to happen. Entirely different expectations here in SLC, for the following reasons:

1. About 40% of the valley population is LDS. So the concepts of self-reliance and emergency preparation are baked deep into the culture here. Check out www.providentliving.org to get a flavor of what it's like here.

2. The city and county are pretty realistic about providing any services or assistance in a SHTF situation. As in, they know they can't and are very outspoken in saying as much. So they put their emphasis on helping neighborhoods organize to take care of their own (it's that self-reliance thing again).

3. Agriculture on both small and large scale is widely present throughout the valley. Most people keep a backyard garden - while those gardens may not feed their families long-term, it does keep their farming skills sharp. There's a 40 acre farm - half community garden and half privately owned - a block from here. Also, you can't drive through a neighborhood in this city without finding at least one family raising chickens (we have three coops our own suburban neighborhood).

4. As part of that emergency preparation and self-reliance, most folks here (even the urban dwellers in apartments) have a 72-hour emergency kit that they can grab-and-go with. Those who rent or own homes also keep longer-term food storage (most keep between six months and two years on hand) and know to rotate what they have. Lots of neighborhood-based group buys on storable foods to keep costs down. Ditto for water - you'll see several of those blue 55-gallon drums in most homes throughout the area.

Don't get me wrong, it's not perfect. Without a doubt, SLC will experience all of the issues that any other city will face in a SHTF situation. It's just that there is a greater portion of the population here preparing for such an event than I'd expect to find in most other urban areas.


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## BillS

I think all cities would be in desperate shape because very few people are prepping. Maybe 3% of the population is prepping and maybe about half of those have more than 6 months worth of food. When the collapse happens at least 90% of the population will die. People will die quicker in areas where there aren't safe supplies of water. People who live on the Great Lakes should be OK if the water is filtered or boiled. Water we be an immediate and serious problem in places like Phoenix and Los Angeles. I think more people will die of thirst or drinking bad water than any other natural cause.


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## Gians

*Sack of Tomatoes*

Nearest is Sacramento, around 2.6 million in Metro area. It was built where the American and the Sacramento Rivers merge. It has excellent soil for gardening, good fishing and is close to rice growers in the Delta and whatever they're growing now in Elk Grove and beyond. The winters are mild, when we were there we actually got more and better veggies in the winter than the summer. Lots of wintertime fruit. It feels earthquakes pretty good, but it's not sitting on any major faults. That said, not sure how many have prepped or know how to fish, garden or do a span of time without electronic toys  ...we're a bit more North.


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## tc556guy

The nearest "city" by your definition is an hour away
Unfortunately we are right in the middle of a triangle formed by three such cities.
We are often referred to as being centrally isolated.
I suspect that our overall county of 100,000 people with three schools of higher education including a Land Grant Ivy league school would actually make a decent go at pulling through. Still plenty of rural areas here that can be pressed back into agricultural use or maintained in current agricultural use.
Transportation will be a major issue
A fairly large percentage of what I consider troublemakers is a problem that would have to be dealt with sooner or later.
I suspect that crime and what we see as routine survival issues would be a steep learning curve for many folks until they got their minds wrapped around the reality that things had changed forever.


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## cowboyhermit

Sorry but I have gotta call you out on this one.



cowboyhermit said:


> I can't say if it will snow on November 12th. I can look at history and come up with a reasonable estimate of it's likelihood but more to the point I can say it's MUCH less likely to snow on August 12th.
> 
> Granted, there are many factors in a situation like this and even if one had a real understanding of them all, there is always that chance that the most unlikely even will occur. In farming and much else in life, we try to be prepared for an event like that but at the same time it is necessary to play the odds, *I will have the blade on the tractor* and the winter clothes out in November but in August I just can't afford to.


*WILL *you have the blade on the tractor in November, cowboyhermit, *WILL YOU REALLY!?!*


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## Tirediron

Do we detect a lack of mounting the underbelly blade frame??


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## cowboyhermit

Tirediron said:


> Do we detect a lack of mounting the underbelly blade frame??


I am going out this morning to crawl under a tractor to adjust the drawbar, then break the blade free of ice, then crawl under again to mount it, then crawl under to run the hoses I _could_ get some energetic young persons to help me but it is a kind of penance for not getting it done myself

Oh, did I mention the tractor also has a full tank of summer diesel and no practical way of emptying it?

As to the O.P, I have dealt with more than my share of city people this hunting season and boy am I glad it is pretty much over. Most of them were very personable and nice people in the abstract sense but the overwhelming lack of respect for property rights makes my blood boil at times. The learning process continues though and I am starting to get a very good idea of how these people think about these things.

First rule; if it doesn't _look_ like it is "being used" then most city people will assume "nobody will mind" if they trespass. Doesn't matter what the law says (in Alberta it clearly states the land does NOT need to be posted or fenced), if I don't want people trespassing I have to take measures to convince people that, "Yes, I am one of those crazy people who take property rights seriously" :nuts:

Second thing; they figure that your "front yard" should be the same as theirs,* they* don't have the expectation of privacy in theirs and everyone has the right to come to the front door unannounced so the same should be true at everyone's place. If you don't want people wandering around your yard "looking for you" (which is a very convenient excuse for more troubling activities) you have to take steps to make it clear that you are once again "one of _those _people". If a person is concerned about looking like you are hiding something then safety or liability is a good enough reason.

Another thing I have found is that these days people from the city are often so used to being watched and filmed that when some of them get into the country it seems like they have anonymity and no consequences. Reminding them that they are being watched or possibly filmed can remind them of their moral compass 

Anyways, on my little homestead I have dealt with all these problems long ago (of course there are always improvements to be made) but with other property and people I know it is an ongoing issue.

Okay, maybe I am stalling at this point, time to get going


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## NaeKid

I am giggling ... 




As far as I can tell - I am about as ready for winter as I can be - outside the house. So far - winter has been very chilly with temps bouncin' off of the -31° C mark ... 


I can't remember the last time I had to plug in my vehicles in November ... February, yes ... but dagnabbit ... I should be able to safely ride my motorcycles in November!


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## GrinnanBarrett

The sad truth is there is no plan. There are in fact committees set up to meet and discuss all the scenarios but in reality everyone involved knows full well if a true SHTF scenario hits what will happen is everyone will try to pass the buck (or should I say the bulk of the population off onto the road. Send them somewhere else under the pretense that help is waiting for them down the road. In other words turn all roads to outbound lanes only. Make is someone else's problem. 

An example would be if the Electric grid were shut down due to damage to the heavy transformers how many spares exist in stocks at ONCOR. Most likely around a thirteen percent max. It takes up to a year to build one. Get the picture? 

Food supplies are going to be a biggy. Realize that a grocery store has maybe a three to five day supply under normal circumstances. In a crisis make that a few hours at most. Less than three percent of your households has any supplies on hand at all. Back up supplies are at Walmart in people's minds. 

If power is down gas stations cannot pump gas and cannot be resupplied. Cars will be stranded on the road ways. In 1982 Atlanta, GA experienced a major ice storm that left the city paralyzed. People left their cars in the middle of the freeways and started walking. I saw one very wealthy lady stop her car blocking the only entrance and exit to a community. She refuse to move it so the residents flipped it over destroying her Mercedes. 

Under ideal situations it would take three full days to evacuate New York City. And then where do you send all those millions of people? In a full blown crisis during a panic the city would implode on itself. 

The other problem is most people will panic drive. In other words they will jump in their cars and run. They will have no idea of where they are going but they know they must get there fast. If the event is wide spread consider what would happen if Dallas sends people East on Interstate 20 and Tyler sends them West on 20. What happens when they meet? I guess Canton gets the brunt of the crap at that point. 

The point being that those with a plan and supplies and a real place to go and stay in place may make it. There is no guarantee that any of of survive. For those of us with major health issues like long term medication requirements the hope is the event i short duration. 

If you are depending on the government to take care of you and your family then the term is "GOOD LUCK".


----------



## Woody

Raleigh went through a similar situation to Atlanta years ago. Conditions were right to have a dusting of snow melt and turn to ice on all the roadways. I was already on my way home from work, left at regular time of 4:00. Traffic just STOPPED. I was on the 6-lane at the time. Mostly it was accidents that did the road blocking. One accident on the 6-lane and you are stopped. A couple hours later the ice melted enough to drive the highway but you still could not go anywhere. Folks abandon their vehicles all over and walked away. This caused more accidents as folks were upset and got into more accidents trying to get around the abandon vehicles!! Tow trucks had to work their way backwards, clearing the roads until they could get to the actual accident that was stopping traffic.

I can picture the same thing happening in a SHTF situation with everyone leaving at once. A couple cars run out of gas and shut the whole circus down.


----------



## LincTex

cowboyhermit said:


> Oh, did I mention the tractor also has a full tank of summer diesel and no practical way of emptying it?


You just haven't gotten creative enough... 
or don't own a nice selection of brass Weatherhead fittings... 
or pieces of hose and clamps and such.... 
or old fuel filters you can use to make "adapters" with... 
etc ... etc...


----------



## LincTex

GrinnanBarrett said:


> Food supplies are going to be a biggy. Realize that a grocery store has maybe a three to five day supply under normal circumstances. In a crisis make that a few hours at most. ................."GOOD LUCK".


I don't know if you remember... 
but Kroger's grocery throughout the Houston area had closed all their stores and stacked bales of crushed cardboard boxes in front of their glass windows SEVERAL DAYS before Hurricane Ike went through. Even those who don't wait until the "last minute" were caught off guard!



GrinnanBarrett said:


> on Interstate 20 and Tyler sends them West on 20. What happens when they meet?


I can't imagine the folks in Tyler heading TOWARDS Dallas....


----------



## cowboyhermit

LincTex said:


> You just haven't gotten creative enough...
> or don't own a nice selection of brass Weatherhead fittings...
> or pieces of hose and clamps and such....
> or old fuel filters you can use to make "adapters" with...
> etc ... etc...


Or energetic enough

If it wasn't full (almost 50 gallons) I would have pumped it out through the tiny line with a tiny transfer pump (made from a fuel pump), but then of course the tidy tank has winter diesel in it now so I would have to put it elsewhere or mess with cans, you get the idea.

Treated it and circulated with the primer pump (which is actually a surprisingly good one), should be fine. I know lots of guys who run summer diesel all winter with treatment, I MUCH prefer to get the real deal but for this blade tractor it should be fine :dunno: we will see


----------



## LincTex

cowboyhermit said:


> I know lots of guys who run summer diesel all winter with treatment, ... we will see


Build a simple fuel heater (with coolant/heater hoses heating your fuel) before the fuel enters your filters and you'll never have a problem, ever! It's a really easy fix to do. Pretty cheap insurance against having to leave the tractor a LONG way away from a power source, too (if it gels up)

Or just buy one from a boat:


----------



## Tirediron

those fuel warmers are ok in mild climates, but by the time the engine is starting to make enough heat to warm the fuel the filter will be waxed in our part of the world, and then the filter needs to be changed and the lines flushed with meltdown, I have used summer fuel with lots of conditioner for the last couple of winters, because conditioner is cheaper than doing the summer work with winter fuel with its lack of energy. :gaah:
And the fuel warmer that Linctex posted would probably be a nice addition to that concept.


----------



## cowboyhermit

Tirediron said:


> I have used summer fuel with lots of conditioner for the last couple of winters, because conditioner is cheaper than doing the summer work with winter fuel with its lack of energy. :gaah:


Just posted in another thread but it might be worth it to check with your fuel dealer, UFA here just guaranteed someone that their winter diesel was within 1%-3% of summer. Used to be a completely different story.


----------



## Tirediron

Yeah I probably should, it has been about 4 years since the haying and hauling with winter fuel, But we don't use a lot of diesel in winter, our feeding loader has a swapped in chev 350


----------



## cowboyhermit

Tirediron said:


> Yeah I probably should, it has been about 4 years since the haying and hauling with winter fuel, But we don't use a lot of diesel in winter, our feeding loader has a swapped in chev 350


I guess it makes a big difference which refinery they are getting it from, it has to meet all the different specs but how they do it is up to them. Used to be they would just mix in more #1 but these days they are opting for additives due to price, new ULSD etc.

We don't use much diesel in the winter either but we might be buying a bunch, before the end of the tax year


----------



## LincTex

Tirediron said:


> those fuel warmers are ok in mild climates, but by the time the engine is starting to make enough heat to warm the fuel the filter will be waxed in our part of the world...


I was assuming you'd be using some form of block or tank heater. I have never in my life tried to start a diesel below 20*F (-7*C) without adding heat of some kind. It's just too damn hard on Diesel engines starting them that cold otherwise.


----------



## Tirediron

LincTex said:


> I was assuming you'd be using some form of block or tank heater. I have never in my life tried to start a diesel below 20*F (-7*C) without adding heat of some kind. It's just too damn hard on Diesel engines starting them that cold otherwise.


When it is -40/ 40 below the fuel filter in most applications will wax off even with a circulating block heater running through a fuel warmer on the return side. Some truckers run fuel heaters if they can fuel at home but they also have a switchable tanks system to get the engine up to operating temperature first, not many guys do it any more because if you break down and have the engine cool off with full wax fuel it is a pain to get the fuel flowing again.


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## PopPop

Not just cities, most communities can not feed themselves with locally produced food. It is systemic. 9 meals and then it all burns.


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## musketjim

Our borough(county) has a total population of a about 100,000, we have a military population of over 13,000, under martial law or if they go autonomous because of an EMP, they will combine with our state troopers, and local police to control us, then eliminate or absorb them and rule over us.:lalala:


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## Tirediron

I guess you just have to lay low till they starve .............


----------



## PopPop

Tirediron said:


> I guess you just have to lay low till they starve .............


Exactly. It you have to go to a "Relief Center", you are toast.


----------



## cowboyhermit

PopPop said:


> Not just cities, most communities can not feed themselves with locally produced food. It is systemic. 9 meals and then it all burns.





PopPop said:


> Exactly. It you have to go to a "Relief Center", you are toast.


I take that as a vote against Atlanta, I have to admit I kinda figured that 

Not all smaller cities and communities will quickly run out of food though, especially in regions like the prairies where MUCH more food is produced than consumed. It won't be the same kind of food, that's for sure, but especially in the initial phases of a situation there will be NO shortage.

Just as an example, a "modern" elevator on the prairies (inland terminal) will often store a million bushels of grain (some are much higher), that is enough food for a city of 1 000 000 for almost 2 months from ONE terminal, aside from all the other sources.

Several large and small cities on the prairies in Canada have several of these, many also have slaughter facilities and thousands of head of livestock very close by or in their limits.

Farms in the area have at least as much food on them when put together.

Now, would the logistics of the situation work :dunno:, some of those cities also have military bases within them, some have RCMP paramilitary training facilities, almost all of these cities have a great record of coming together in an emergency.

The main point I am trying to make though, is that in these cases food would NOT be the most limiting factor in these places, if anything food related was it would be the distribution. I see a lot of things that could go wrong in these cities but an_ actua_l lack of food in the city would not happen in the short term.


----------



## PopPop

cowboyhermit said:


> I take that as a vote against Atlanta, I have to admit I kinda figured that
> 
> Not all smaller cities and communities will quickly run out of food though, especially in regions like the prairies where MUCH more food is produced than consumed. It won't be the same kind of food, that's for sure, but especially in the initial phases of a situation there will be NO shortage.
> 
> Just as an example, a "modern" elevator on the prairies (inland terminal) will often store a million bushels of grain (some are much higher), that is enough food for a city of 1 000 000 for almost 2 months from ONE terminal, aside from all the other sources.
> 
> Several large and small cities on the prairies in Canada have several of these, many also have slaughter facilities and thousands of head of livestock very close by or in their limits.
> 
> Farms in the area have at least as much food on them when put together.
> 
> Now, would the logistics of the situation work :dunno:, some of those cities also have military bases within them, some have RCMP paramilitary training facilities, almost all of these cities have a great record of coming together in an emergency.
> 
> The main point I am trying to make though, is that in these cases food would NOT be the most limiting factor in these places, if anything food related was it would be the distribution. I see a lot of things that could go wrong in these cities but an_ actua_l lack of food in the city would not happen in the short term.


The food is there, getting it to where the people are is the weak link. 
I have a farm in a very rural part of the South East. Most of the neighboring farmland has been planted with Pine Trees. In my county there a are a few cattle operations, no chicken houses, no hog lots and only one large truck farm. Most of what my neighbors depend on for sustenance is bought in the Grocery Store and has to cross the Mississippi. That is a huge vulnerability and is exponentially compounded for those who live in a large city.


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## Grimm

cueza said:


> when the $ bill is toilet tissue, there's going to be nobody working. Why would they, since they won't get paid? NO water in the pipes, cities burning, packs of starving dogs (and people) everywhere. There will be garbage, rats, fleas and disease everywhere, drunken, along wit doped up fools lighting fires that get out of control, When there's no food, no fuel, no power, things will get super ugly, really swiftly. Even small towns are going to be sites of horror, and people will flee them. Guess where they will be going? To the known-about farms and ranches, where else? After those are looted, they will just be looking and listening for indications of someplace else to loot. Noise, smoke, scent, flashy movement, all must be very limited. Or else.


The 'bride' is cheating on you, isn't she?!


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## hashbrown

cueza said:


> when the $ bill is toilet tissue, there's going to be nobody working. Why would they, since they won't get paid? NO water in the pipes, cities burning, packs of starving dogs (and people) everywhere. There will be garbage, rats, fleas and disease everywhere, drunken, along wit doped up fools lighting fires that get out of control, When there's no food, no fuel, no power, things will get super ugly, really swiftly. Even small towns are going to be sites of horror, and people will flee them. Guess where they will be going? To the known-about farms and ranches, where else? After those are looted, they will just be looking and listening for indications of someplace else to loot. Noise, smoke, scent, flashy movement, all must be very limited. Or else.


Zombies! Dude you left out the Zombies!


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## camo2460

Fear, inexperience and a lack of knowledge makes people say, do and think dumb things, maybe this young man will live long enough to gain some knowledge and experience so that he will mature and lose he fear of what he thinks will happen.


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## PopPop

cowboyhermit said:


> I take that as a vote against Atlanta, I have to admit I kinda figured that
> 
> Not all smaller cities and communities will quickly run out of food though, especially in regions like the prairies where MUCH more food is produced than consumed. It won't be the same kind of food, that's for sure, but especially in the initial phases of a situation there will be NO shortage.
> 
> Just as an example, a "modern" elevator on the prairies (inland terminal) will often store a million bushels of grain (some are much higher), that is enough food for a city of 1 000 000 for almost 2 months from ONE terminal, aside from all the other sources.
> 
> Several large and small cities on the prairies in Canada have several of these, many also have slaughter facilities and thousands of head of livestock very close by or in their limits.
> 
> Farms in the area have at least as much food on them when put together.
> 
> Now, would the logistics of the situation work :dunno:, some of those cities also have military bases within them, some have RCMP paramilitary training facilities, almost all of these cities have a great record of coming together in an emergency.
> 
> The main point I am trying to make though, is that in these cases food would NOT be the most limiting factor in these places, if anything food related was it would be the distribution. I see a lot of things that could go wrong in these cities but an_ actua_l lack of food in the city would not happen in the short term.


I have a farm 100 miles from Atlanta, it is a very rural area. The communities in that area would fair no better than the big cities. Very little farming going on except for tree farms. I told many of my neighbors who decided to plant pine trees, " You had better figure out a way to eat them." Most of what we eat in the South East US comes from Florida, the Mid west and California. There are a few exceptions but not enough to sustain us.


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## tc556guy

The nearest 100K city to me is Syracuse NY
I was still in the Guard when Syracuse was completely blacked out after a major summer storm and a winter storm about a year prior to that.
The drug dealers were back on their corners selling their garbage the day after the storm, while my guys were working the same blocks removing downed trees etc.
I can imagine how fast Syracuse would sink like a rock under the crime wave if a major event occurred and no first responders were available


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## CrackbottomLouis

PopPop said:


> I have a farm 100 miles from Atlanta, it is a very rural area. The communities in that area would fair no better than the big cities. Very little farming going on except for tree farms. I told many of my neighbors who decided to plant pine trees, " You had better figure out a way to eat them." Most of what we eat in the South East US comes from Florida, the Mid west and California. There are a few exceptions but not enough to sustain us.


I live a little north of Atlanta. Hunt in Plains and Rome. You are right. Pine tree farms as far as the eye can see. Atlanta itself will most likely die of thirst before it gets a chance to starve unless Lanier and allatoona remain miraculously uncontaminated and the dams continue to work.

Wow. Just realized how old this thread was


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## readytogo

Somehow some of us are always mentioning the worst case scenarios, which by the way it always sound like a Bellywood horror movie full of Blobs and human eating bacteria and flesh eating Chihuahuas, wow folks I think someone needs to stop their cable service for a while and take a reality check and the funny thing about this is that those kind of people have never been in a real crisis ,they have never suffer hunger or been in a food line or a real major event and to those a major event is a week without cable or web service or cell phone or even a walk in the snow like a 20 mile march or even making a cup of boil coffee, or even know how to used a Yankee Screwdriver or just heating a bucket of water to take a bath, let’s get real here folks and let`s get ready for what so ever happens in your neck of the woods which by the way in my neck is nothing more than hurricanes power outages ,some race related riots do to some police shooting or like in Memorial Day that some 160 arrest where made and a few daily drive by shootings ,nothing to lose any sleep over it, I don`t take drugs nor visit those areas of town ,I don`t support the local bar scene and I keep abreast of the news and my surroundings and yes if food is the issue let`s not forget the wasted of it in the millions of pounds this great nation dumps every year ,enough to feed a world full of zombies, maybe if we feed them they will stop eating us………..


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## prepperking22

I think we can all take a look at the examples of the "emergencies" that big cities run into and how they handle them. Luckily I'm off on my own 100 acres and becoming more and more self-sufficient every day. Don't want to be caught up the millions of people in panic mode when a true large scale emergency hits. Yes, sheer panic and pandemonium will result. No doubt about it. That's why every day, I count my blessings I won't have to be caught up in the mix of what those cities will be delivering when catastrophe hits.


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## prepperking22

tc556guy said:


> The nearest 100K city to me is Syracuse NY
> I was still in the Guard when Syracuse was completely blacked out after a major summer storm and a winter storm about a year prior to that.
> The drug dealers were back on their corners selling their garbage the day after the storm, while my guys were working the same blocks removing downed trees etc.
> I can imagine how fast Syracuse would sink like a rock under the crime wave if a major event occurred and no first responders were available


Syracuse won't be the only city to fall to the crime wave. That's evident from our daily broadcasting of the campaign trail right now.


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## gabbyj310

I keep remembering the News during Katrina.People lying dead on the street,reports of rape in the Super Dome(yep, not where I want to bug out too)looting and few police and they were afraid for their lives and with good reason.The main reason I moved from Florida was to have a "safe haven" for me and any family that wanted to and could make it to my home place.Although I lived away from a big city in Florida it was still to close to everything including the ocean and way too many "transients".Although I will always have the sand on my feet and the ocean breeze in my hair,I made the choice to let the clay dirt and pine trees of Kentucky (and of course the children and,grandchildren had something to do with the move)away from "city life'and the tons of people for the saftey and serenity of those "backwoods".Now if I can just dodge those darn tornados until I have either my underground house or safe shed,I will be a happy camper!


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## musketjim

A possible problem with my local city, Fairbanks, Ak is the huge military population. We are fortunate in that our local radio station, has a good percentage of local talk. We have local radio slots dedicated completely to preparedness and 2nd amendment, firearm issues. By listening and calling in we learn from each other. Our local politicians are completely incompetent as evidenced by their big push to ban wood burning, they are complete fools when it comes to self sufficiency, but I am fortunate enough to be associated with mutual friends and some local farms and educators who have the ability and knowledge to rebuild when it all burns down. But if martial law is declared or the military goes rogue, we're all screwed.


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## Elinor0987

The city I live in would not do well at all during an extended emergency situation because the population density is too high, gets too cold in winter, the city officials and police officers are severely outnumbered, too many gangs here, and not enough resources (natural or man made) to provide for the people. There's many other reasons but those are some of the main ones. This place would turn into a war zone very quickly and would start to resemble Venezuela.


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## readytogo

How can anybody predict or imaging what is going to happen nerveless stereotype all the citizens in a given area people will react different all the time given a different situation. Miami Florida has had a shared of riots, political riots ,food riots , government establish curfews , major natural events and except for a small group of criminals in a localize area the majority of the city has been free of it all ,free to lineup for food or gas or ice and FEMA or Red Cross centers have taken root within 72 hours of the event ,the main problem here is citizens ignorance and lack of cooperation with the authorities ,lack of respect and lack of preparedness and by the way the riot areas have been seal off by authorities and those involved have never been allowed to leave it areas near those zones have been warn by authorities to be on the look out for trouble makers ,lock and load situation.


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## BillS

No city anywhere will go well when it hits the fan. No city has a year's supply of food and water for everyone in the city. They don't have a way of delivering electricity when the national power grids go down. Every household needs a way of providing for their own heat when they need it. You can survive in parts of the south without heat in the winter but that's impossible up north. If it's 0º outside it will eventually be that cold inside your house if you don't have a way to heat it.


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## BillS

readytogo said:


> How can anybody predict or imaging what is going to happen nerveless stereotype all the citizens in a given area people will react different all the time given a different situation. Miami Florida has had a shared of riots, political riots ,food riots , government establish curfews , major natural events and except for a small group of criminals in a localize area the majority of the city has been free of it all ,free to lineup for food or gas or ice and FEMA or Red Cross centers have taken root within 72 hours of the event ,the main problem here is citizens ignorance and lack of cooperation with the authorities ,lack of respect and lack of preparedness and by the way the riot areas have been seal off by authorities and those involved have never been allowed to leave it areas near those zones have been warn by authorities to be on the look out for trouble makers ,lock and load situation.


You can go with the big picture: When the dollar dies and nobody can buy food the vast majority of people will die. That will be the same everywhere during an economic collapse.


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## cowboyhermit

BillS said:


> No city anywhere will go well when it hits the fan. No city has a year's supply of food and water for everyone in the city. They don't have a way of delivering electricity when the national power grids go down. Every household needs a way of providing for their own heat when they need it. You can survive in parts of the south without heat in the winter but that's impossible up north. If it's 0º outside it will eventually be that cold inside your house if you don't have a way to heat it.


There might be cities in the world that have those things, I can't say for certain. What I do know is that some areas, like for example some places in the Canadian prairie provinces, there is a large surplus of food and energy.

There are absolutely small cities here that (at least at times) have a years worth of food within a small radius if not within the actual city limits. Some/most of these cities are also in oil/natural gas producing areas. They are also within a short distance of thousands of tonnes of timber. They have facilities nearby that can use these to produce power, at least some of which would have no problem running for at least a year on a technical basis.

Now, to what degree these systems would break down without an actual lack of resources is a more difficult questions. It comes down to human factors mostly, community cohesion, etc.

On a personal note, the response to the recent evacuation in northern Alberta has given me reason to doubt any serious breakdown in society in this area, short of a true TEOTWAWKI or severe external forces, at least in the near future. Despite being in an economic slump, the level of charity bordered on the ridiculous. Local businesses offering free food, services, etc, convenience stores clogged up with boxes of donated clothes and stuff that anyone showing an ID from the area could help themselves to, etc.


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## tmttactical

Living in a city area, I tend to hope a moderate disaster only happens, such as an economic depression -- not a total collapse. If the grid went down for more than 3 month, then I would probably have a very difficult time surviving. I store food and maintain water supplies, plus I have located additional water sources. Cash, plus supplies and staying home will hopefully allow me and the WW to deal with a moderate disaster. Game plan = Out of sight - out of mind. Grey man to the limit.


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## tc556guy

cowboyhermit said:


> There are absolutely small cities here that (at least at times) have a years worth of food within a small radius if not within the actual city limits. Some/most of these cities are also in oil/natural gas producing areas. They are also within a short distance of thousands of tonnes of timber. They have facilities nearby that can use these to produce power, at least some of which would have no problem running for at least a year on a technical basis.


Op limited the discussion to municipalities with 100K or more in population
I doubt that any metro area meets the criteria
NYC might keep the lights on if it seized control of a nuke plant or two and kept the power on despite people ability or inability to pay their bills
Food...forget it. No major metro area could keep the shelves stocked


----------



## terri9630

cowboyhermit said:


> There might be cities in the world that have those things, I can't say for certain. What I do know is that some areas, like for example some places in the Canadian prairie provinces, there is a large surplus of food and energy.
> 
> There are absolutely small cities here that (at least at times) have a years worth of food within a small radius if not within the actual city limits. Some/most of these cities are also in oil/natural gas producing areas. They are also within a short distance of thousands of tonnes of timber. They have facilities nearby that can use these to produce power, at least some of which would have no problem running for at least a year on a technical basis.
> 
> Now, to what degree these systems would break down without an actual lack of resources is a more difficult questions. It comes down to human factors mostly, community cohesion, etc.


I'm sure the small town I live near would implode. The last ice storm had the hwy shut down for 4 days no one had water because of frozen pipes and even though there is a power plant not 2 miles from us going full blast half the town was out of power because of falling trees. People were upset for months because they had to spend a few days with no power and water and the roads were to dangerous to drive. The ones who tried were stuck in/behind wrecks on the bridges. People were fighting over food/water and angry with the Morman church because they don't keep food stored to just give away like a lot of them thought it did. Lots of farms here but unless you want to eat alfalfa, cotton, pecans, or chilies peppers your out of luck. Lots of oil here to but what are you going to do with it? How would you get it with no power? 3 years until we move further away and I can't wait.


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## hiwall

Many cities have a lot of food in them or very close. All those grain bins and grain elevators are about full due to our current surplus. Grain is Everyone's primary food source. Grain is what keeps us all from starving.



> No Room in U.S. Grain Silos Means Dumping Wheat in Parking Lots
> Some American wheat farmers are not only going to lose money on every bushel they harvest this month, many won't have a proper place to store it.
> 
> U.S. grain silos still hold surpluses from last year. Combined stockpiles for major crops -- corn, soybeans, wheat and sorghum -- are the biggest for this time of year since 1988. With demand slowing and output rising, space will get tighter, especially for wheat, which is the first one harvested. Some growers may dump grain in parking lots or vacant buildings.
> 
> "It will be the worst storage crunch in the 30 years I have been trading wheat," said Michael O'Dea, a risk management consultant at INTL FCStone Inc. in Kansas City, Missouri. "A lot of grain will end up in ground piles."
> 
> While farmers expanded storage in recent years, that's been undermined by global crop surpluses and a strong dollar. Once the world's biggest wheat exporter, the U.S. saw its shipments in the year through Tuesday drop to the lowest since 1972. With inventories up 30 percent and expected to swell further, the price outlook is getting more bearish. Chicago futures tumbled for three straight years, and in February touched the lowest level since 2010.
> 
> The glut may only get bigger. Global supply, including production and inventories, will exceed consumption by the most ever in the year that ends in June 2017, with the harvest expected to be the second-highest on record, the International Grains Council said May 26.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ain-silos-means-dumping-wheat-in-parking-lots

tmttactical, Are you concerned about the largest US nuclear power plant that is only 50 miles due west of you? Doesn't the normal winds come out of the west? The Phoenix nuke plant is the only one in the world that is not built next to a body of water.


----------



## cowboyhermit

tc556guy said:


> Op limited the discussion to municipalities with 100K or more in population
> I doubt that any metro area meets the criteria
> NYC might keep the lights on if it seized control of a nuke plant or two and kept the power on despite people ability or inability to pay their bills
> Food...forget it. No major metro area could keep the shelves stocked


I am said OP. The differences about the area I am talking about and a place like NYC are orders of magnitude.

For example, look at a place like Saskatoon Saskatchewan, population 200-300 000. One grain facility inside city limits has over 5 MILLION bushels of grain storage, and there are several. That is somewhere around 250 000 000 lbs of grain or about 1000lbs per person from *1 *facility. This is just one example among many in the area. The resources are there, like I said, it is just about what it would take to bring down the "system". If someone is talking about whether or not life would be unaffected and trips to the grocery store would remain unchanged then it would not take much to disrupt that. But... if we are talking about people starving it would take a HUGE amount of outside interference or an extremely unprobable course of events.



terri9630 said:


> I'm sure the small town I live near would implode. The last ice storm had the hwy shut down for 4 days no one had water because of frozen pipes and even though there is a power plant not 2 miles from us going full blast half the town was out of power because of falling trees. People were upset for months because they had to spend a few days with no power and water and the roads were to dangerous to drive. The ones who tried were stuck in/behind wrecks on the bridges. People were fighting over food/water and angry with the Morman church because they don't keep food stored to just give away like a lot of them thought it did. Lots of farms here but unless you want to eat alfalfa, cotton, pecans, or chilies peppers your out of luck. Lots of oil here to but what are you going to do with it? How would you get it with no power? 3 years until we move further away and I can't wait.


We seem a lot luckier in this area in that everything we grow is rather easy to process into food. The major crops are wheat, barley, oats, canola etc. Of those, wheat is a large component and can simply be boiled and eaten (a traditional dish with the addition of some honey). The other major product is beef, and the vast majority of it's input is grass (this would shift even more heavily in a disaster obviously). Many people here feed no grain whatsoever to their cows, and even more feed much less than 10% of their annual diet in grain.

Natural gas is much easier to use in an emergency than oil, as it doesn't need to be "pumped" in many situations. It can be though, as it is easy to use to generate electricity which can then be used for multiple purposes.


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## Caribou

Half the population of the State live within an hour and a half drive of my home. In the summer there would be plenty of fish. The farms and ranches can do quite a bit but there is no way they can provide for everyone. The Mormons stock some wheat and one of the better bakeries grinds their own but neither of these sources would last long. Grains are not a local crop.

There is a sizable moose population even inside Anchorage.

http://www.adn.com/slideshow/alaska...e-parking-lot-of-an-anchorage-hardware-store/

With almost everyone in Alaska owning a gun I expect game to become very scarce, in the easy to hunt areas, in short order.

There are a number of bee keepers but it would take at least a year to get up to speed cover just the current amount of honey used and much longer to make a dint in replacing the sugar. There would be a lot of hungry people.


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## tmttactical

hiwall said:


> Many cities have a lot of food in them or very close. All those grain bins and grain elevators are about full due to our current surplus. Grain is Everyone's primary food source. Grain is what keeps us all from starving.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ain-silos-means-dumping-wheat-in-parking-lots
> 
> tmttactical, Are you concerned about the largest US nuclear power plant that is only 50 miles due west of you? Doesn't the normal winds come out of the west? The Phoenix nuke plant is the only one in the world that is not built next to a body of water.


Hiwall, rest assured I am a lot further from Phoenix than 50 miles, a lot further. If it was a major plant failure (think China Syndrome), then I would be concerned about the wind direction, along with the rest of Arizona. The magnitude of the failure will determine the amount of threat to me. I can't prepare for all events, I concentrate on economic disasters. Nuclear disasters are well past my ability to defend against, remember I live in an apartment. No mass or air filtration. Bug out the only recourse and then a few million other people will be doing the same thing. Not good!


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