# Financial Forcasting



## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

I received a copy of this in my email. I am not sure if I should believe it or not, but, I did some research into the guy who supposedly wrote this, and, it seems legit enough.



> The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.
> 
> Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he recently told Fox News.
> 
> ...


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## cheech (Nov 17, 2008)

Do you really buy it? The squatters are going to band together?


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

cheech said:


> Do you really buy it? The squatters are going to band together?


Here in Canada, there was a whole town built on the west-coast of squatters. They lived and worked and such there - because of the great surfing. The government tried to move them because a developer wanted the land to build some kind of resort. These squatters claimed rights to the land because they had been there well over 20 years.

Last I heard, it was in the hands of the lawyers and courts - I am not sure how it is turning out right now. Yes - the squatters banded together.


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## TechAdmin (Oct 1, 2008)

What town is that Naekid? Interesting story.


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## Tim (Oct 29, 2008)

I don't doubt these predictions for the most part will come true, but I pray they don't.
Reason is we have been living at high standard for a long time now on the value of the almighty dollar and the dollar is in danger of losing its throne and falling way down in value in the global marketplace. When and if that happens, there will be great hardship. That's what all the fear in Washington is about, but they dare not utter it. The dollar used to be based on our industrial and agricultural strenght, for quite some time now that basis has not existed. Yes we still have agriculture, but the rest of the world has caught up and the industrial base has moved overseas to a large extent. The brick wall is dead ahead, prepare as much as you can for it.


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## omega (Nov 10, 2008)

*The meltdown*

This government has printed over 7.5 trillion dollars in the past 4 months, fiat money with nothing backing it up. The story from Washington changes all the time, I do not trust them. Something is going on behind the scenes, and it is not good. And in January 2009 the USA will have a one party rule.


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

Dean said:


> What town is that Naekid? Interesting story.


I found a link to a .pdf of a movie that was made about it, but, I haven't been able to dig up much more (yet). I'll keep looking, and, I'll ask my brother if he has more details that he can share (he lives in that area).

http://www.knowledgenetwork.ca/news/2007/june2007/wgh_II.pdf

I found another link to a .html with some other details:

http://www.factsandopinions.com/Explore/F6113F5F-8B23-4AAF-BF5C-AA13991584D4.html


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## Publius (Nov 27, 2008)

omega said:


> This government has printed over 7.5 trillion dollars in the past 4 months, fiat money with nothing backing it up. The story from Washington changes all the time, I do not trust them. Something is going on behind the scenes, and it is not good. And in January 2009 the USA will have a one party rule.


This is a cross post, but it's my cross post from a different forum, so I think I'm OK here. It also seems a bit convoluted, but I answered and then did some research and answered again.

Actually, who needs a press. Just add some zeros in the electronic balance sheet. Boom a trillion dollars. I remember reading a few years ago that was no more than about $650 Billion in actual currency. I then heard they expanded it another $100 Billion later. I found this info on the Treasury site, but I no longer find it. So even if there is a Trillion in actual currency, most don't need it to conduct transactions. As to how fast it really can run if they ran it 24X7, I wouldn't even be able to guess.

I did a little research and found a Treasury cartoon for kids. They say 38 Million notes go through the Bureau of Printing and Engraving a day with a face value of $641 Million a day. Doing the math that is $16 a note. Of course we don't have that, so I am assuming that it means all denominations. So if they have enough plates for every note to be a $100 that could be $64.1 Billion a day!

I found a different fact on it. They print 38 Million notes a day with a face value of $750 Million and in 2007 9.1 Billion notes were produced. They claim 95% of notes printed are to replace old notes.


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## AgentFlounder (Dec 12, 2008)

That sounds super scary. Sets off my skeptic flag. I have been drawn into FUD before and I am trying to be wiser about what I buy into.

So... whenever this sort of thing pops up I research (a) snopes.com or other urban legend debunking sites (b) research the guy himself and see what others have to say and if they are logical or hysterical. If they seem mostly level headed and logical, then I can put some weight on their viewpoint.

On point (a) I guess GC really predicted this from what I could tell at first glance. But this site also turned up some debunking articles. Interesting.

On point (b) I did a little research on Gerald Celente to see if anyone was out there debunking him. Gerald Celente, Futurist Fraud : Edward Champion's Reluctant Habits Seems relatively intelligent. The slant and arm waving made me wonder a little, but the arguments seem worth noting.

From snopes, here's another one. Skipping past the digs at Fox News and infowars, he presents a number of predictions that GC got wrong -- in a fairly level headed way. Today's forecast: Gloom followed by increasing doom - Computerworld Blogs --- so ok, that is well worth noting.

Also cited was this: Lou Minatti: Gerald Celente is full of crap which presents evidence that GC got a lot wrong, too. The initial paragraph is slanted rhetoric, but the facts are worth noting I think.

So with the above, I can only approach these GC predictions with pretty significant skepticism and disbelief. In other words, I am not going to get all spun up into that addictive mindset of fear and paranoia.

I don't doubt that we are in for hard times as a country once again. 60 minutes had an article on a guy who made predictions about the housing / lending markets suggesting that we're not quite over the hump yet. Seemed plausible. I believe there are things that could cause mass panic -- which is what would send the economy into a spiral. After all, it's all about the masses and how they (over)react.

But, I feel reasonably prepared and very fortunate -- financial investments are to my satisfaction, we have savings, I seem to have more job security than I've ever had before (although anything can happen). I prefer to be very thankful, right now, rather than wrought with fear over what is to come.

Michael


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