# Economist John Williams: Financial Collapse If Russia Sells U.S. Dollar Holdings



## BillS




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## Mase92

So Russia selling off our dollar to hurt us would do what to China?

Seeing as Russia and China seem to be BFF's now, I doubt China would let that happen. Fun stuff having all the worlds economies rely on each other...


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## Geek999

Let's see tensions rose over the weekend and our stock market dropped 1.5% on Monday. Russia's market dropped 10%. Looks like there would be a financial collapse, but it would be in Russia.


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## Sentry18

I will confess that I am fairly ignorant when it comes to the greater global financial economy. But I am smart enough to realize that people who are really _in the know_, do not make You Tube videos.


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## LincTex

Geek999 said:


> Let's see tensions rose over the weekend and our stock market dropped 1.5% on Monday. Russia's market dropped 10%. Looks like there would be a financial collapse, but it would be in Russia.


The Russian currency, the ruble, plunged 2.9 per cent to a record low against the dollar of 36.90 Rbs.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/busines...ets-plummet/RAA4EWZ2bHGZGI77nBCJ3I/story.html

Russian markets plummet 9%
Associated Press
March 03, 2014

BNY Mellon's Russia ADR Index slumped 9 percent Monday morning, and is now down more than 27 percent for the year. Stocks in the index include metals company Mechel, which fell 7 percent to $1.76; Russia's biggest mobile communications operator, Mobile Telesystems, tumbled 9 percent at $15.60. Another mobile phone company, VimpelCom, is off 7 percent to $9.44.

In addition, US-traded shares of Yandex, Russia's biggest Internet search engine, fell 13 percent to $32.49.

Global markets were shaken by the developments in Ukraine and Crimea, as fears of contagion spread. A number of Europe's biggest banks fell sharply.


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## Geek999

The Russian economy is the eighth largest in the world, ranking between Brazil and Italy. If they didn't have nuclear weapons they would have importance on the level of Brazil or Italy.


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## BillS

Sentry18 said:


> I will confess that I am fairly ignorant when it comes to the greater global financial economy. But I am smart enough to realize that people who are really _in the know_, do not make You Tube videos.


That was really ignorant and closed minded.


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## BillS

Mase92 said:


> So Russia selling off our dollar to hurt us would do what to China?
> 
> Seeing as Russia and China seem to be BFF's now, I doubt China would let that happen. Fun stuff having all the worlds economies rely on each other...


Russia and China see us as enemies. They both have big plans for regional conquest and America stands in the way. China has a score to settle with Japan. Not only over some islands but because of the millions of Chinese murdered by the Japanese during World War II. China wants Taiwan. They might even want a good chunk of the Pacific including the Philippines and Australia. Putin wants to reform the old Soviet Union. Ukraine is just the first victim. It sounds like based on what Obama said over an open mike that he's ready to throw Poland to the wolves too.

They could take down our economy without firing a shot. They might just do that. It doesn't make sense for China to sell us stuff for dollars and then lend those dollars back to the government in exchange for worthless treasury bonds. China will continue to have a thriving economy by trading with the rest of the world. Expect to see the petrodollar system end. Expect to see it replaced by the petroyuan.

I'm reminded of how hackers planted a story at CNN.com that China was going to dump all of their treasuries on the market at the same time. I think the Chinese government planted that story as a warning.

If nothing else, we could see a sudden and drastic loss of purchasing power of the dollar at almost any time without warning. We could wake up to $10 a gallon gasoline or an unexpected 35% devaluation of the dollar.


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## Tweto

I think that the truth of a the current events is not as they appear. When the Soviet Union collapsed back when President Reagan was in power the root cause of the collapse was financial. The Soviet Union's economy staled and was failing. I don't believe that the true story of what was going on behind the scenes was ever made public. President Reagan may have been doing things in the markets to speed it up.

Putin would be looking for pay back for the break up of the Soviet Empire by Reagan. Putin has had years to plan this and has been buying gold buy the ton.

Russia's alliance with China could be the final stab to the heart of the US economy. I think that China and Russia would be willing to take the hit from decreased trade with the US to permanently eliminate the US from the world stage.

The media only reports what the governments what them to report. I don't ever believe that the history books are correct and the truth is stranger then fiction.


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## Dakine

The US, China and EU are a three legged stool. Chop off any one of the legs and the other two will surely collapse as well. As mentioned above Russia is not exactly a booming economy and the removal of markets to sell goods and energy to (by means of decapitation of the USD, therefore USA) is only going to crater their economy as well. 

One of my biggest concerns is that there are tyrants that simply don't care. Many middle eastern countries have spent the last two thousand years with people living in tents in the desert and cutting off heads of anyone who doesn't do what the bosses say. For them, watching the US, China, Russia, and EU all go poof at the same time is worth doing just to hear the sound of us going splat.


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## Viking

Info from John Williams should not be taken lightly as he does very thorough research. As to China, they are taking our trade debt and are using it to procure large chunks of American soil like mines, businesses, manufacturing and other things that have intrinsic value as opposed to fiat US Fed currency.


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## Sentry18

BillS said:


> That was really ignorant and closed minded.


Are you unaware of what those terms mean Bill? Apparently so. You see You Tube is just a place where people post entertaining videos or because they want attention. It's not actually a trustworthy news outlet and those videos have not been reviewed for accuracy. Now I suppose I could try and be more gullible if it makes you feel better, but gullibility is just not in my nature. All of these impending financial collapse YouTube videos are starting to remind me of Y2K and the Mayan calendar coming to an end.


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## Mase92

BillS said:


> Russia and China see us as enemies. They both have big plans for regional conquest and America stands in the way. China has a score to settle with Japan. Not only over some islands but because of the millions of Chinese murdered by the Japanese during World War II.


ummmm......

In any case, I'll reflect what others have stated, Youtube is not a solid news source.

Good day.:wave:


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## BillS

Sentry18 said:


> Are you unaware of what those terms mean Bill? Apparently so. You see You Tube is just a place where people post entertaining videos or because they want attention. It's not actually a trustworthy news outlet and those videos have not been reviewed for accuracy. Now I suppose I could try and be more gullible if it makes you feel better, but gullibility is just not in my nature. All of these impending financial collapse YouTube videos are starting to remind me of Y2K and the Mayan calendar coming to an end.


By saying that you were slandering John Williams and his work. I was being kind by just saying you were just ignorant and closed minded. Maybe I should have said something stronger about someone who makes blanket statements to disparage the work of another. You sometimes talk about being a Christian but over and over again you fail to act like one.

Besides that, you're rude and condescending. I'm again reminded why I stopped reading anything you write.


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## hiwall

You tube is a big place and many things can be found there. Not everything there is just an idiot looking for his 15 minutes of fame. 

Back to Russia and China and the USA. If the the USA does collapse many millions here will die. We are the worst country of this three as far as being prepared (in my opinion). The loss of millions here would be devastating to us. The loss of millions in China or Russia and their populations would just say "I remember when that happened before".


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## Viking

hiwall said:


> You tube is a big place and many things can be found there. Not everything there is just an idiot looking for his 15 minutes of fame.
> 
> Back to Russia and China and the USA. If the the USA does collapse many millions here will die. We are the worst country of this three as far as being prepared (in my opinion). The loss of millions here would be devastating to us. The loss of millions in China or Russia and their populations would just say "I remember when that happened before".


I remember many years ago before China's population reached a billion people when someone mentioned that they could loose a million people a year marching into war and it wouldn't put a dent in the overall population. Now I don't think that it's necessary for them to get into a physical war with us, economic war would do the trick.


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## Geek999

Russia is one of the most misunderstood countries going. For instance, during the Y2k preparations I heard a speaker talk about how screwed up Russia was going to be due to computer failures messing up the 110 nuclear power plants in the country. Unfortunately for his prediction, there were only 2 mainframe computers in the country at that time. The whole Y2k thing was a non-event.

Many Russians use dollars as they are a more reliable currency than rubles, but there is not much in the way of other US assets owned by Russia or Russians, so there isn't going to be some massive sell off.


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## hiwall

If there was a world economic collapse would Russia even notice?


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## Geek999

hiwall said:


> If there was a world economic collapse would Russia even notice?


Yes they would. Their markets for energy and commodities would be impacted and goods they import would be reduced in availability. They would probably not be as impacted as wealthier nations, but they would notice. Due to the Soviet influence, the place was very insulated for over 70 years. They have not integrated fully in the years since. That lack of integration is another factor that would mute any financial shenanigans.


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## Sentry18

BillS said:


> By saying that you were slandering John Williams and his work. I was being kind by just saying you were just ignorant and closed minded. Maybe I should have said something stronger about someone who makes blanket statements to disparage the work of another. You sometimes talk about being a Christian but over and over again you fail to act like one.
> 
> Besides that, you're rude and condescending. I'm again reminded why I stopped reading anything you write.


Your self righteousness never stops amusing me Bill. The Pharisees would be proud. I am sure that John Williams has a strong civil case over the slanderous accusation and disparaging comment _that people in the know don't make You Tube videos_. Bet that really cut deep.


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## GrinnanBarrett

The Ukraine is a tough situation in many respects. For one thing half the country is ethnic Russian. the Crimea region is actually part of old Russia and was so up until the 1950s. The Russians have agreements in place to have their Black Sea fleet and bases in Crimea. In the eyes of the Russian people they are protecting their interests in the Region. 

On the other hand Ukraine was falling apart economically before the ouster of the head of state. Was he a Russian puppet? most likely yes. Was he elected? Yes. Did his own party turn on him as the violence escalated? YES. 

Consider also the country of Georgia. The Russians moved in there as well a few years back. Everyone got their backs all bowed up and then cooler heads prevailed. Russia wants to rebuild the old empire (USSR) and this is a popular thing with the Russian people. Putin in their eyes is a savior not a tyrant. 

Can we afford to get involved in a shooting war with Russia? Only if we welcome WW3. If you look at the former Soviet Satellite countries you will find they have nice little armies that are more border guards than hardened fighting troops. If the Russians decide to overrun them what are they going to do. I know they will get a very stern letter from our man in charge. I am sure that will put Putin on the edge of his seat. 

We have ti remember when you go into an area like this you are the invader. You are now fighting on their HOME ground. that is not a fun place to be. If the Russians stay within the area of the Crimea (which I expect they will) we are pretty much shot down trying to stop them. Don't expect the Euros to do much other than talk. NATO without the US is a joke. 

No one can afford to have another big war. You are now talking about a DEPRESSION beyond anything any of us can comprehend. The one starting in 1929 would look like a bump in the road.


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## LincTex

GrinnanBarrett said:


> I know they will get a very stern letter from our man in charge. I am sure that will put Putin on the edge of his seat. ... Don't expect the Euros to do much other than talk. NATO without the US is a joke.
> 
> No one can afford to have another big war. You are now talking about a DEPRESSION beyond anything any of us can comprehend.


And knowing this.... might make some various country's borders interesting in the next few years. No one wants any wars.. no one can afford any wars.

I wonder if there will be more "simple land grabs" to come? 
It's funny how easily Crimea became a part of Russia again.


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## Viking

Our so called "Leaders" ignore what George Washington warned this nation in his time and is so fitting for all times, especially in these days, "Beware of foreign entanglements." So what do we have? Kerry and McCain saying we should be doing something about the Ukraine situation, Kerry saying we will "Loan" $1 billion dollars to them. It's almost as if Obama wants a war that's his, something he can have his brand on, meanwhile our troupes are tired from multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. Like the old song says "When will we ever learn."


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## Dakine

I think whether or not someone on YouTube is right, or if they are crackpot making wild guesses by the seat of their pants would depend on how they get and process the information leading to those "predictions", and what their track record is, being right or not, and what kind of skin do they have in the game.

I recall one person in comments after a Peter Schiff interview saying of course he's going to try to scare everyone into buying Gold and Silver, because that's what he does, he sells Gold and Silver. Is that the only motivation for his radio show, his podcasts and whatever else he does? maybe... I dunno.

I also recall that Matt Drudge... The Drudge Report scooped the entire world on breaking the Monica Lewinsky story. Until then, "bloggers" were just crackpots with a wider audience than the guy at the local bar. Bloggers even get a seat at the table in the White House press room now.

Times change, the media changes, and as the "establishment" News, degenerates further and further away from being an advocate for the people the vacuum will be filled by someone.

Seems to me that the problem isn't YouTube, it's the signal to noise ratio and making any sense whatsoever out of who is talking and establishing their credibility.


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## BillS

GrinnanBarrett said:


> The Ukraine is a tough situation in many respects. For one thing half the country is ethnic Russian. the Crimea region is actually part of old Russia and was so up until the 1950s. The Russians have agreements in place to have their Black Sea fleet and bases in Crimea. In the eyes of the Russian people they are protecting their interests in the Region.
> 
> On the other hand Ukraine was falling apart economically before the ouster of the head of state. Was he a Russian puppet? most likely yes. Was he elected? Yes. Did his own party turn on him as the violence escalated? YES.
> 
> Consider also the country of Georgia. The Russians moved in there as well a few years back. Everyone got their backs all bowed up and then cooler heads prevailed. Russia wants to rebuild the old empire (USSR) and this is a popular thing with the Russian people. Putin in their eyes is a savior not a tyrant.
> 
> Can we afford to get involved in a shooting war with Russia? Only if we welcome WW3. If you look at the former Soviet Satellite countries you will find they have nice little armies that are more border guards than hardened fighting troops. If the Russians decide to overrun them what are they going to do. I know they will get a very stern letter from our man in charge. I am sure that will put Putin on the edge of his seat.
> 
> We have ti remember when you go into an area like this you are the invader. You are now fighting on their HOME ground. that is not a fun place to be. If the Russians stay within the area of the Crimea (which I expect they will) we are pretty much shot down trying to stop them. Don't expect the Euros to do much other than talk. NATO without the US is a joke.
> 
> No one can afford to have another big war. You are now talking about a DEPRESSION beyond anything any of us can comprehend. The one starting in 1929 would look like a bump in the road.


I find it hard to believe that Russia's neighbors are happy about being back under the Russian boot. Russia murdered at least 5 million Ukrainians through starvation in the 1930s then resettled Russians in their place. Stalin sent 100% of the Tatar population of Crimea to Siberia. Half of the population died on the way.

When Clinton was president the US and NATO signed a treaty with Ukraine guaranteeing their security in exchange for them getting rid of their nukes and their army. I don't see how the US can get involved despite the treaty obligations but the Russians conquering their neighbors isn't good either.


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## hiwall

> US and NATO signed a treaty with Ukraine guaranteeing their security


Not to be picky but it was an 'agreement' not a treaty (I think).
I do not think for a minute that all that happened in Ukraine was what we saw on the nightly news. I personally have no doubts that the US government had a big hand in on those riots and the subsequent ousting of the elected president. Look how quick Obama was to praise the illegal action of Ukraine's Congress to illegally appoint a new president (we should do that here!).
Putin rolled a large number of troops in very rapidly (like it was all planned) and took quick control. Then the Crimean parliament was quick to vote 'unanimously' asking to become part of Russia again (like it was all planned). 
I think Putin could take half or all of Ukraine if he wanted (like he already has taken Crimea) and no one would do a thing about except tell him he was a bad boy.


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## Dakine

hiwall said:


> Not to be picky but it was an 'agreement' not a treaty (I think).
> I do not think for a minute that all that happened in Ukraine was what we saw on the nightly news. I personally have no doubts that the US government had a big hand in on those riots and the subsequent ousting of the elected president. Look how quick Obama was to praise the illegal action of Ukraine's Congress to illegally appoint a new president (we should do that here!).
> Putin rolled a large number of troops in very rapidly (like it was all planned) and took quick control. Then the Crimean parliament was quick to vote 'unanimously' asking to become part of Russia again (like it was all planned).
> I think Putin could take half or all of Ukraine if he wanted (like he already has taken Crimea) and no one would do a thing about except tell him he was a bad boy.


If he'd just have approved the Keystone pipeline years ago instead of playing political football with jobs and energy, he would have had bargaining power to tell Putin "Screw you, we'll sell natural gas to the European market for 1/2 what you will" and that would immediately crash the Russian energy market.

But he didn't... he's always five moves behind the game because he is busy pandering to the uber-libtard fringe of the (D) party.


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## Geek999

LincTex said:


> And knowing this.... might make some various country's borders interesting in the next few years. No one wants any wars.. no one can afford any wars.
> 
> I wonder if there will be more "simple land grabs" to come?
> It's funny how easily Crimea became a part of Russia again.


The answer is yes. Russia has been invaded repeatedly, most recently in WWII, and suffered greatly each time. As a result they have certain territorial aspirations, 1) put some buffer space in between themselves and likely opponents, 2) ports for their navy, etc.

As a result the borders have a long history of moving and changes of control. Stalin moved people around to make it difficult to return to more compact borders. There are ethnic Russians in all the border countries.

The fact that the Soviet Union fell apart simply put them in back to the more compact borders and restarted the centuries long expansion cycle. We'll see more of these land grabs.


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## Dakine

Geek999 said:


> The answer is yes. Russia has been invaded repeatedly, most recently in WWII, and suffered greatly each time. As a result they have certain territorial aspirations, 1) put some buffer space in between themselves and likely opponents, 2) ports for their navy, etc.
> 
> As a result the borders have a long history of moving and changes of control. Stalin moved people around to make it difficult to return to more compact borders. There are ethnic Russians in all the border countries.
> 
> The fact that the Soviet Union fell apart simply put them in back to the more compact borders and restarted the centuries long expansion cycle. We'll see more of these land grabs.


That's the same thing Germany did, and they marched into Austria to a hero's welcome, and China is also doing the exact same thing to countries around them... Tibet, Nepal etc...

One man, one vote? changes the odds dramatically when you start thinking about that... kind of like legalizing illegal aliens. Water down the voting pool with instant amnesty.


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## rongway86

Don't forget China has been buying tons of Gold. Both China & Russia have us by the balls financial. Bottom line, we're screwed!!!

Sent from my DROID RAZR HD using Survival Forum mobile app


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## Geek999

China and Russia are two entirely different stories. The Chinese hold a great deal of our debt. Russia doesn't. China's economy is significant. Russia ranks between Brazil and Italy. China manufactures a wide variety of goods and has a huge export sector. Russia basically exports commodities, oil, gas, metals and makes very little that anyone else is interested in.

We may well be screwed but if we are it is not due to Russia, more likely is we did it to ourselves.


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## hiwall

Russia and China are allies.
Russia and China are both communist countries.
Russia and China both are super powers.
Russia and China both would like to expand.
Russia and China both dislike the USA.
Russia and China both voted for Obama.
OK I made the last one up.


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## Dakine

well, we definitely did it to ourselves, but if we die, we take china with whether they like it or not.

Besides the significant amount of exports directly to the USA, their other trading partners, Japan for example, they buy raw pieces to manufacture for export to... yep, the USA. 

A lot of China's other countries are in the same position... for example Pakistan and Viet Nam... what could they possibly have in common with China vs. USA trade? Pakistan makes and exports towels and rugs and all kinds of stuff that sells by the freighter tanker boat full to Walmart... if you eliminate the money going into Pakistan's economy by all the stuff they make and sell to us, and you eliminate the money we spend everywhere else in the world, who will buy pakistani towels? Nobody. Viet Nam? ever buy any 5.11 gear? go look at the labels!  Viet Nam is actually a very good trading partner with us now. We sell and build Nuclear Energy plants for them.

Currency Wars -> Trade Wars -> Shooting Wars. Guess how close we are to #3 right now...


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## Geek999

hiwall said:


> Russia and China are allies.
> Russia and China are both communist countries.
> Russia and China both are super powers.
> Russia and China both would like to expand.
> Russia and China both dislike the USA.
> Russia and China both voted for Obama.
> OK I made the last one up.


They are not particularly close allies due to a shared history of conflict dating back to the Mongolian invasion. They would like to expand into each other's territory.

While both claim to be communist, the two are quite different. In particular, China is becoming a manufacturing powerhouse and Russia is still a commodity exporter and is not able to manufacture much that anyone wants to buy.

Lot's of countries dislike the USA.

I agree they prefer Obama to anybody that has a clue.
The two are "superpowers" only because they are nuclear powers.


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## Geek999

Dakine said:


> well, we definitely did it to ourselves, but if we die, we take china with whether they like it or not.
> 
> Besides the significant amount of exports directly to the USA, their other trading partners, Japan for example, they buy raw pieces to manufacture for export to... yep, the USA.
> 
> A lot of China's other countries are in the same position... for example Pakistan and Viet Nam... what could they possibly have in common with China vs. USA trade? Pakistan makes and exports towels and rugs and all kinds of stuff that sells by the freighter tanker boat full to Walmart... if you eliminate the money going into Pakistan's economy by all the stuff they make and sell to us, and you eliminate the money we spend everywhere else in the world, who will buy pakistani towels? Nobody. Viet Nam? ever buy any 5.11 gear? go look at the labels!  Viet Nam is actually a very good trading partner with us now. We sell and build Nuclear Energy plants for them.
> 
> Currency Wars -> Trade Wars -> Shooting Wars. Guess how close we are to #3 right now...


Not as close as we will be once Obama slashes the military further.


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## hiwall

> well, we definitely did it to ourselves, but if we die, we take china with whether they like it or not.


I guess I do not totally agree with this. If we collapse it will certainly hurt China but China will be in much better shape than the good ole USA. China is set up for manufacturing and we no longer are. A collapse would devastate us but not so much in China. In China they still do many things the old fashioned way unlike here. Many of the people in China are used to hardship but here not so much. Rumor says China has been stockpiling supplies in case something does happen. Here we are only stockpiling EBT cards.


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## Dakine

hiwall said:


> I guess I do not totally agree with this. If we collapse it will certainly hurt China but China will be in much better shape than the good ole USA. China is set up for manufacturing and we no longer are. A collapse would devastate us but not so much in China. In China they still do many things the old fashioned way unlike here. Many of the people in China are used to hardship but here not so much. Rumor says China has been stockpiling supplies in case something does happen. Here we are only stockpiling EBT cards.


China is 1B+ population. They do not *need* that many slaves. Which is basically what they have now. For them, less mouths to feed is a good thing.

I agree many of the people in china are used to surviving much harder circumstances than ANYONE in the USA is used to, and if/when the house of cards comes tumbling down here, a lot of people are in for a very rude awakening. Life as they KNEW it IS OVER, and they will have NFI what to do about what happens next.


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## BillS

Dakine said:


> well, we definitely did it to ourselves, but if we die, we take china with whether they like it or not.
> 
> Besides the significant amount of exports directly to the USA, their other trading partners, Japan for example, they buy raw pieces to manufacture for export to... yep, the USA.
> 
> A lot of China's other countries are in the same position... for example Pakistan and Viet Nam... what could they possibly have in common with China vs. USA trade? Pakistan makes and exports towels and rugs and all kinds of stuff that sells by the freighter tanker boat full to Walmart... if you eliminate the money going into Pakistan's economy by all the stuff they make and sell to us, and you eliminate the money we spend everywhere else in the world, who will buy pakistani towels? Nobody. Viet Nam? ever buy any 5.11 gear? go look at the labels!  Viet Nam is actually a very good trading partner with us now. We sell and build Nuclear Energy plants for them.
> 
> Currency Wars -> Trade Wars -> Shooting Wars. Guess how close we are to #3 right now...


China can trade with the rest of the world. The EU is a larger trading partner than the US. America is like a weight around the neck of China. They sell us stuff for dollars and we sell them treasury bonds that are going to be worthless. Plus, the Fed is destroying China's huge dollar stockpile with endless money printing.

It's like a contractor who builds a house and then lends the money out of his own pocket so his "best" customer to buy the house. If he lends the money to someone who can't pay is he really making money?

China imports raw materials and oil. They export finished goods. They're a lot like America was a hundred years ago.

It should be noted that China has been deliberately suppressing the value of the yuan as a way to make China more competitive globally and I believe they're also doing it to destroy America economically. They saw how we won the cold war economically so they stole the page out of our playbook. Once China stops suppressing the value of the yuan the whole country and its population will be richer than they are today.


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## Padre

*Suicide button*



Geek999 said:


> Let's see tensions rose over the weekend and our stock market dropped 1.5% on Monday. Russia's market dropped 10%. Looks like there would be a financial collapse, but it would be in Russia.


The way the world is interconnected economic warfare means mutually assured destruction the same way nuclear war does. That is the catch 22 that the US is hoping will prevent folks from calling our debt bluff. The idea is that they own so much of our debt that they will never come a calling to collect on a large scale because to do so would wreck their own economy.

The fact that we have sold ourselves on the idea that economic MAD ensures that its a non-issue, and the Russian economy has not is, if anything, a reason to reconsider our premise.

Anyone decide to stop playing the game and we are all screwed!!! That's how ponzi schemes work.


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## Padre

Sentry18 said:


> Are you unaware of what those terms mean Bill? Apparently so. You see You Tube is just a place where people post entertaining videos or because they want attention. It's not actually a trustworthy news outlet and those videos have not been reviewed for accuracy. Now I suppose I could try and be more gullible if it makes you feel better, but gullibility is just not in my nature. All of these impending financial collapse YouTube videos are starting to remind me of Y2K and the Mayan calendar coming to an end.


You sound a little like the public officials who insist that you are only "press" (protected by the first amendment) if we give you a FCC broadcast license.

Youtube is as valid a news source as the main stream news. You've gotta admit that the media has in the past shown itself to be not all that accurate at times. Now that we have passed the point in history when we assume that the news media only reports the God's honest truth we understand what has always been true. News isn't about being told what to think its about being told what others think, what others want you to think, and what they think (or want you to think) are facts. But that's not where it ends, news starts with you taking in data, and ends with you shifting through it, researching the truthfulness of facts, and seeing if the logic holds.

Youtube simply beems content... data. Now sure it doesn't sort through that content for you imposing its editorial bias, which means that there might be a good deal of false info out there, but even false info tells you something newsworthy about all the crazies out there.

I look at that video and the first thing I ask is, well how much US debt does Russia hold? .14 trillion, which is less than one percent. So could that alone collapse our economy, probably not, in fact if they sold off that debt slowly it would most likely be bought up by other creditors. But that is not the premise of this gentleman's argument. What he is suggesting is more a consideration of mob mentality. Does the amount of debt Russia holds signify enough debt to spook the market and trigger the type of reaction that would collapse our economy. One thing that I factor into my consideration of this video is the fact that while Russia holds about 1% of our debt, its more like three percent of foreign held debt. I also consider the fact that we have refused to repatriate German gold, that our debt has been downgraded by major agencies, that other countries have publicly seen that we lack the political will to start being fiscally responsible, and as a result of these facts a number of countries have indicated that they plan to decrease the amount of US held debt.

Just remember, no one was reporting in the main stream media about the collapse of 08 (in fact they mocked those who suggested it was coming) until after the collapse happened.

Feel free to engage this data and decide not to give it credence, but rejecting it because its from youtube is a logical error, because the appeal to authority is intrinsically a weak arguement.


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## Dakine

BillS said:


> China can trade with the rest of the world. The EU is a larger trading partner than the US. America is like a weight around the neck of China. They sell us stuff for dollars and we sell them treasury bonds that are going to be worthless. Plus, the Fed is destroying China's huge dollar stockpile with endless money printing.
> 
> It's like a contractor who builds a house and then lends the money out of his own pocket so his "best" customer to buy the house. If he lends the money to someone who can't pay is he really making money?
> 
> China imports raw materials and oil. They export finished goods. They're a lot like America was a hundred years ago.
> 
> It should be noted that China has been deliberately suppressing the value of the yuan as a way to make China more competitive globally and I believe they're also doing it to destroy America economically. They saw how we won the cold war economically so they stole the page out of our playbook. Once China stops suppressing the value of the yuan the whole country and its population will be richer than they are today.


Wiki disagrees... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China but oddly, the source they quote, the CIA world fact book does agree. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2078.html#74 and I think that disparity may come from the numbers of the EU being combined in the vs. individual nations where the wiki page is showing numbers?

I still think that there's a lot of countries that would love to eliminate us from their equation but to do so would doom them to collapse as well. And I still dont think we'll be the first to go... our debt to GDP ratio is even worse than Greece, but we are by far the largest cash contributor to the IMF and IMF is funding all the bailouts to Greece and I guess the PIIGS are next? As well as everyone else, Cyprus and who all ever else?

If you look at the IMF, it takes Members #2-5 to combine and contribute more than we do. So basically... yeah, we're borrowing from China to rebuild other countries socialist failed economies. It is one of the biggest transfers of wealth and it's taking place every day. Our wealth to the countries that hate us.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMF

We should probably stop doing that. Just a thought...


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## Geek999

Padre said:


> The way the world is interconnected economic warfare means mutually assured destruction the same way nuclear war does. That is the catch 22 that the US is hoping will prevent folks from calling our debt bluff. The idea is that they own so much of our debt that they will never come a calling to collect on a large scale because to do so would wreck their own economy.
> 
> The fact that we have sold ourselves on the idea that economic MAD ensures that its a non-issue, and the Russian economy has not is, if anything, a reason to reconsider our premise.
> 
> Anyone decide to stop playing the game and we are all screwed!!! That's how ponzi schemes work.


The thread is about Russia and starts with the premise that Russia can cause our collapse by selling US assets. While our debt is a problem, the assumption is that Russia holds enough US assets (our debt) for this idea to make sense.

It is true that we have a lot of debt outstanding and it is true that some countries, e.g. China hold a significant amount of that debt.

What is missing here is the fact that Russia is not one of the countries holding a lot of US debt, so even if the scenario that some other country could cause a collapse here by dumping US assets, Russia is not such a country.

As I stated earlier, Russia's economy is between Brazil and Italy in size. Are you worried that Italy will cause a collapse in the US by dumping US assets? I'm worried about economic problems due to our own policies, e.g. Obamacare, high taxes, etc. Not about Italy, Brazil, or Russia.


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## BillS

Geek999 said:


> The thread is about Russia and starts with the premise that Russia can cause our collapse by selling US assets. While our debt is a problem, the assumption is that Russia holds enough US assets (our debt) for this idea to make sense.
> 
> It is true that we have a lot of debt outstanding and it is true that some countries, e.g. China hold a significant amount of that debt.
> 
> What is missing here is the fact that Russia is not one of the countries holding a lot of US debt, so even if the scenario that some other country could cause a collapse here by dumping US assets, Russia is not such a country.
> 
> As I stated earlier, Russia's economy is between Brazil and Italy in size. Are you worried that Italy will cause a collapse in the US by dumping US assets? I'm worried about economic problems due to our own policies, e.g. Obamacare, high taxes, etc. Not about Italy, Brazil, or Russia.


Expect Russia and China to work together. Possibly the other BRICS nations as well. They're in the process of setting up their own settlement bank for trade outside the dollar.


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## Geek999

BillS said:


> Expect Russia and China to work together. Possibly the other BRICS nations as well. They're in the process of setting up their own settlement bank for trade outside the dollar.


That makes sense if they have sufficient trade with each other. It doesn't imply a sell off of US debt, particularly by Russia.


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