# People dont think?



## teenprepper1 (Jan 13, 2013)

Wont people be looking for huge trucks with people. its like saying hey look here. i have supplies and guns. Come and get me. what are the best areas to bug out to and how do you stay stealthy?


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## FrankW (Mar 10, 2012)

There are so many large trucks on the road no one will give it a second glane IMO.
Unless its an 18 wheeler that says "Walmart" on it.. beause then folks can imagine it had whatever they neeed the most.


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## lotsoflead (Jul 25, 2010)

teenprepper1 said:


> Wont people be looking for huge trucks with people. its like saying hey look here. i have supplies and guns. Come and get me. what are the best areas to bug out to and how do you stay stealthy?


hunker down where you're at, let the rest of the sheep set in mile long parking lots that may move a hundred yds in 2-3 hrs.In a SHTF situation, no one is going anywhere.Even now with 2 inches of snow or a tree across the rd, the hy ways are shut down.


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

lotsoflead said:


> hunker down where you're at, let the rest of the sheep set in mile long parking lots that may move a hundred yds in 2-3 hrs.In a SHTF situation, no one is going anywhere.Even now with 2 inches of snow or a tree across the rd, the hy ways are shut down.


I'm trying to think of a situation where this could happen and it would be OK to bug in. Why would everyone be trying to go somewhere else if there weren't a real hazard?

An economic collapse wouldn't put everyone on the roads at once. Nuclear war and you're in a target city... probably not a good idea to stay there. Hurricane going to make landfall there... again staying isn't a good idea. Martial law... I don't see everyone jumping in their cars to go somewhere if they have nowhere to go.

I'm not trying to argue, but I can't think of anything. If you know of something, let me know because I'm probably not prepared for it.


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## cqp33 (Apr 2, 2012)

labotomi said:


> I'm trying to think of a situation where this could happen and it would be OK to bug in. Why would everyone be trying to go somewhere else if there weren't a real hazard?
> 
> An economic collapse wouldn't put everyone on the roads at once. Nuclear war and you're in a target city... probably not a good idea to stay there. Hurricane going to make landfall there... again staying isn't a good idea. Martial law... I don't see everyone jumping in their cars to go somewhere if they have nowhere to go.
> 
> I'm not trying to argue, but I can't think of anything. If you know of something, let me know because I'm probably not prepared for it.


In an economic collapse I see the first few 2-3 days being looting businesses in cities, after that maybe a day or two of disorganization and then people would start searching for food when they realize what is really going on! If you are stuck in the city during this time I think the time to get out would need to be timed just right and I would lean towards earlier rather than later! Just my $.02!


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## Genevieve (Sep 21, 2009)

teenprepper1 said:


> Wont people be looking for huge trucks with people. its like saying hey look here. i have supplies and guns. Come and get me. what are the best areas to bug out to and how do you stay stealthy?


sweetie, those of us with big trucks,supplies and guns are ready. willing. and able to use the guns to protect our selves and supplies. I for one will not hesitate to protect myself.
If you can't stomach the thought of taking someone's life to protect your own then you need to find some where that you'll be taken care of by those that will for your benefit.

In a REAL sh!t hits the fan scenario, it will not be pretty. People are animals and they will act like it with little provocation. It won't be like on tv or the movies where there will be a superman come to save you. It'll be you ( and maybe your family) against them. And you need to be ready to do whatever it takes to survive and that means taking a life if it's necessary.


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## dixiemama (Nov 28, 2012)

Most of my family lives in cities across the US. I've tried convincing them to move more rural but it hasn't stuck. The only one who gets it lives almost 5 hours away and has a pickup as her BOV. She will drive an hour to her brothers and most likely come here with his family. That adds more to our group, but he's a Marine. Again, they MIGHT come here to hunker down at his home.


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

cqp33 said:


> In an economic collapse I see the first few 2-3 days being looting businesses in cities, after that maybe a day or two of disorganization and then people would start searching for food when they realize what is really going on! If you are stuck in the city during this time I think the time to get out would need to be timed just right and I would lean towards earlier rather than later! Just my $.02!


I think people that live in the inner cities would need to be wary of the above situation, but rioting isn't going to happen in rural and rarely in suburban areas.

What situation would cause massive amounts of people to suddenly take to the highways yet someone would be better off staying home?


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

labotomi said:


> I think people that live in the inner cities would need to be wary of the above situation, but rioting isn't going to happen in rural and rarely in suburban areas.
> 
> What situation would cause massive amounts of people to suddenly take to the highways yet someone would be better off staying home?


well, there's 2 often used figures that come to mind, and I'm going to refer to them just to set the stage:

#1. the avg house has 3 days of non perishable food and water
#2. we're 4 missed meals from anarchy (quick search seems to differ, 4,7,9 etc)

So why would it be better to bug out?

Okay, firestorms, common in my area. Just because my neighborhood didnt burn down doesnt mean the one next to mine is still intact. Which happens a lot actually. So there's not much point in camping out in the great outdoors of the smoldering ruins that used to be your life. You need to go..."somewhere" but if you're house is still standing, it would be a good idea to stay there, and defend it if necessary.

How about earthquake? read above, (actually very close parallel.)

How about economic collapse. bad things are already happening with our currency, as that continues to deteriorate if left unchecked, we'll have hyper inflation. unless someone wants to eat one of those 2B bullets that DHS is buying up, they'll want something with substantially more calories and a massive decline in Law & Order and available (affordable) food will put people seeking life elsewhere. If there's nothing at home, why stay there and starve? But if you're not starving, why move and become a bigger target?

That scenario above can be applied to a variety of others I think.

We dont get hurricanes, but typhoons have happened here, extremely rarely by comparison though. So... I'm on the top of a hill. Not below sea level like a million people in N.O. water runs down hill, unless my entire hill washed out, even in a regional disaster, I'm MUCH better off staying put as long as my preps are intact. Others, whether their house survived or not, or if their house is intact but did not prep, will have worse options to consider.

For me, anyway... bugging IN is the most logical course of action.


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## MetalPrepper (Nov 25, 2012)

Me too, buggin in....with several cashe areas nearby, several plan B's....but here is best.....~!


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## RevWC (Mar 28, 2011)

My son married into a prepper family (perhaps learned from his dad) we are all in the same small area so I think our families combined could not only help us but should be able to help others too.


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

People are f**king retarded.they will see and think whatever they are told and die for the fact!
[original post]


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## OldCootHillbilly (Jul 9, 2010)

Well, plan be ta stay put ifin we can. That ain't workin, I got some good sized vehicles ta hall our stuff with. 

Should the need fer even bigger equipment arise, I know where I can get a variety a them big green er desert sand colored ones real quick an easy like. Plus I know where ta get a great deal a fuel that most folk never even thin bout.

Traffic ain't gonna be a big concern fer me. I know all the backroads be an ain't never been scared a boondockin ifin I gotta. All the sheeple will be stuck on the slabs. I'll be goin round em ifin were movin. The boys will be a comin here I'm sure. Both have skills an equipment what will be needed ifin that time comes.

A feller simply gotta be ready fer whatever comes down the pike. Ifin we all new exactly what that were, it'd make preppin lots easier. But seeins we don't ya gotta prep fer what can come yer way. As fer the sheeple, well sorry, but there gonna be on there own. The Lord said "I'll help them what helps themselves".


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## Transplant (Jan 10, 2013)

They say grocery stores have an average of 3 days worth of stock. HOWEVER, we have all seen the shelves when a storm passes through, the hordes clean the shelves in a matter of hours. Can you just imagine what it will be like in an economic collapse? Panic buying at its best or worse...I am not leaving the house until the masses move on to the next town looking for food.


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

Transplant said:


> They say grocery stores have an average of 3 days worth of stock. HOWEVER, we have all seen the shelves when a storm passes through, the hordes clean the shelves in a matter of hours. Can you just imagine what it will be like in an economic collapse? Panic buying at its best or worse...I am not leaving the house until the masses move on to the next town looking for food.


Thug on the spot is not going to go inside and spend massively depreciated fiat dollars or max out his CC. He's going to watch and see who comes out with a basket full of groceries, and if he doesn't take them down right there, he'll follow them and find out where they go. Then he can either attack them on the spot or make a note on their location and go back to the store and scout out another victim.

being part of the last chance effort at getting something is a really bad place to be when things go sideways.

prep now FTW!!!


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

Dakine said:


> well, there's 2 often used figures that come to mind, and I'm going to refer to them just to set the stage:
> 
> #1. the avg house has 3 days of non perishable food and water
> #2. we're 4 missed meals from anarchy (quick search seems to differ, 4,7,9 etc)


If the food supply stopped, more than likely the gas supply stopped as well. Even if everyone had a full tank, that 4 days, 7 days, 9 days makes a huge difference in the amount of traffic that would occur if everyone decided to drive elsewhere.



Dakine said:


> So why would it be better to bug out?
> 
> Okay, firestorms, common in my area. Just because my neighborhood didnt burn down doesnt mean the one next to mine is still intact. Which happens a lot actually. So there's not much point in camping out in the great outdoors of the smoldering ruins that used to be your life. You need to go..."somewhere" but if you're house is still standing, it would be a good idea to stay there, and defend it if necessary.


I think you're missing the overall intent of my questions. I'll try and explain why these situations don't fit the criteria.

About the Firestorm (I guess that's the same as a wildfire)...The evacuation would have occurred when the wildfire was approaching. I don't think it would be wise to bug in if a wildfire was threatening your home. So this wouldn't be a case where one would bug in while the rest evacuated which is the situation that I'm trying to discover.

After coming back to the area it's not a situation of bugging in while enough people to cause gridlock are bugging out or evacuating.



Dakine said:


> How about earthquake? read above, (actually very close parallel.)


I've never seen a mass exodus traffic jam after a earthquake. An earthquake happens, it stops, people go about their lives and/or recovery. Some may have to leave because of damage, but it wouldn't be all at once.



Dakine said:


> How about economic collapse. bad things are already happening with our currency, as that continues to deteriorate if left unchecked, we'll have hyper inflation. unless someone wants to eat one of those 2B bullets that DHS is buying up, they'll want something with substantially more calories and a massive decline in Law & Order and available (affordable) food will put people seeking life elsewhere.


I think I covered this type scenario in the response to your first statement.


Dakine said:


> If there's nothing at home, why stay there and starve? But if you're not starving, why move and become a bigger target?


Hyperinflation doesn't happen overnight and wages go up as well as prices. Maybe not to the same extent but if you're not paying your employees enough to live, they won't come back. The company pays them more and it's able because the products they sell are already selling at the inflated prices.

Also the food doesn't suddenly disappear. Hyperinflation is the rising of prices due to an increase in the monetary supply. It's still supply and demand economics. There's just more money for the same amount of goods and services so prices adjust to compensate.



Dakine said:


> We dont get hurricanes, but typhoons have happened here, extremely rarely by comparison though. So... I'm on the top of a hill. Not below sea level like a million people in N.O. water runs down hill, unless my entire hill washed out, even in a regional disaster, I'm MUCH better off staying put as long as my preps are intact. Others, whether their house survived or not, or if their house is intact but did not prep, will have worse options to consider.


It's your decision to stay in a typhoon, but flooding isn't the only thing that causes damage in a typhoon (or hurricane). If people were told to leave because a hurricane was approaching, I wouldn't be one of the people that we ridicule for staying when they had several days warning.


Dakine said:


> For me, anyway... bugging IN is the most logical course of action.


That's your choice, but I still don't see how some situation or disaster that would cause basically everyone in a city to evacuate on short notice wouldn't apply equally to everyone. What reasons would they order an evacuation? Chemical spill, nuke plant disaster, fires, hurricane/typhoon, meteor strike imminent? I'd probably leave in each of those situations.

I guess I could see a panicked public for zombies or aliens and some think it would be better to stay than leave

When tornados hit this area a couple of years ago the electricity was off for a week on average. Most were back up in 7 days, but some it took an extra week to restore power. Lots of people would drive 40 miles or so until they came to an area not served by the grid that was destroyed. I guess we went 7 days without starving, rioting, looting or forming an exodus convoy. I'm sure many left temporatily, but I also know that I met many who stayed while doing cleanup work.


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

labotomi said:


> If the food supply stopped, more than likely the gas supply stopped as well. Even if everyone had a full tank, that 4 days, 7 days, 9 days makes a huge difference in the amount of traffic that would occur if everyone decided to drive elsewhere.


Agreed, but I wasn't thinking specifically about vehicle traffic as much as foot traffic of people on the move. At some point cars break down, run out of gas or collisions, road blocks GOVT, road blocks CITIZENS (you can stay in your big city, you're not coming through our town on your way out) and it only takes a chainsaw and a couple trees to make that happen! done in 5 minutes.



labotomi said:


> I think you're missing the overall intent of my questions. I'll try and explain why these situations don't fit the criteria.


cool! I dont usually like point by point debates because they're just too damn busy... doesnt work for me and then people pick favorite tangents, but your post looks good so lets talk about em...



labotomi said:


> About the Firestorm (I guess that's the same as a wildfire)...The evacuation would have occurred when the wildfire was approaching. I don't think it would be wise to bug in if a wildfire was threatening your home. So this wouldn't be a case where one would bug in while the rest evacuated which is the situation that I'm trying to discover.
> 
> After coming back to the area it's not a situation of bugging in while enough people to cause gridlock are bugging out or evacuating.


Okay, I see what you're saying, and there's both sides really. For example, you'll see massive gridlock in the evac notice as people are loading up and heading to safe zones. The county fair grounds for example. Then, after the fire is either burned through that area, the FD and PD make a decision on what traffic is allowed back in.

#1 IF your house is still standing *and* you can get to it, it's entirely possible you'll be better off at home than at FEMA Cholera camp #4 (applies to flooding as well)

#2 Even when an entire block of homes burn out, there's a house right next door that survives. The fire is gone, the fuel that moved the wild fire is gone... it's NOT coming back. If your house is there, and your preps are there, relocating from the initial evac center for a very short term period to your BIL for a longer term scenario is a possibility.

what are your alternatives? Your house is intact, you could go back, but your worried the fire will come again... how much money do you have? can you afford to drive far enough away to BUY hotel space for your family?

I cant afford long term time away from both work and my house if the house is intact. If you (or someone else) can, hey... more power to you! good luck!



labotomi said:


> I've never seen a mass exodus traffic jam after a earthquake. An earthquake happens, it stops, people go about their lives and/or recovery. Some may have to leave because of damage, but it wouldn't be all at once.


It's not the "after" it's all the people that were part of the "during" Sometimes quakes are just disconcerting, and sometimes they are a huge SHTF situation. Bridges collapse, roads collapse as hillsides shift and become unstable... That's MASSIVELY physical damage to a structure (road) engineered to withstand it... cool... now what about what WE REALLY SAW here... a crew accidentally downed a power line at the 5/805 junction. That's 30 minutes away. It backed up traffic to where I live to 1 mph, and then fully stopped for HOURS!!!! a power line.

The road infrastructure is something most people take for granted in my opinion.



labotomi said:


> I think I covered this type scenario in the response to your first statement.
> Hyperinflation doesn't happen overnight and wages go up as well as prices. Maybe not to the same extent but if you're not paying your employees enough to live, they won't come back. The company pays them more and it's able because the products they sell are already selling at the inflated prices.


That's non-sequitur.

Service industries are NOT going to just start magically paying more. Unless consumers are using the product, Starbucks, Motel 6, 7-11/circle k or whatever your convenience store is, insert million businesses here... what are they going to pay people with?? where are they getting it? if there's a collapse on the horizon or actually happening... I really doubt people are going to starbucks for a double latte... or that Starbucks will start paying baristas $500 an hour so they can sell one to somebody at $X per cup of crappy coffee.

where did the consumer GET the extra dollars? and WHY would they SPEND them on luxuries? it will not happen.



labotomi said:


> Also the food doesn't suddenly disappear. Hyperinflation is the rising of prices due to an increase in the monetary supply. It's still supply and demand economics. There's just more money for the same amount of goods and services so prices adjust to compensate.


No it wont disappear instantly, but food is a product delivered on demand. It's a network of technology and delivery. It really depends on what we're talking about is the problem... is it an earthquake? roads are down? is it a hurrican? roads are down. is it ??

if there's 3 days of "normal" supplies there as they continually refresh based on what is purchased which is computer fed into databases and automates the resupply. BREAK that chain, and you eliminate the store as a viable service center, not to mention who knows about rioting and whatever else might be going on...



labotomi said:


> It's your decision to stay in a typhoon, but flooding isn't the only thing that causes damage in a typhoon (or hurricane). If people were told to leave because a hurricane was approaching, I wouldn't be one of the people that we ridicule for staying when they had several days warning.


Agreed! There's much bigger problems than "rain"... for example as I said, I will not be the flooded house. however, uhm... hello wind!!! losing my roof would kinda suck!

So what do I do? if it's a Typhoon the way Sandy happened, if I were to drive 400 miles to nearest family... what do I gain? NOTHING! I've left behind the truckloads of preps I couldnt bring with so that I can feed MANY more mouths with less food than I started with.

it's a crappy scenario, and I don't have a magic bullet answer. it sucks.



labotomi said:


> That's your choice, but I still don't see how some situation or disaster that would cause basically everyone in a city to evacuate on short notice wouldn't apply equally to everyone. What reasons would they order an evacuation? Chemical spill, nuke plant disaster, fires, hurricane/typhoon, meteor strike imminent? I'd probably leave in each of those situations.


why should I believe the gov't? Close Encounters of the 3rd Kind, (okay I hate to quote movies in debates like this but it fits) they "tell" everyone... GTFO! it's anthrax... but they want to phone home to ET. who knows? plus, a lot of good the govt did when the latest asteroid exploded over russia, and the news reports afterwards said the russians made good judgement calls on the size of the rock even though it was 1000x bigger than originally described.

They just dont know. it's not their fault... and thats assuming its nothing ominous and under-handed.



labotomi said:


> I guess I could see a panicked public for zombies or aliens and some think it would be better to stay than leave


I'm staying in any/all of the scenarios I listed. How much can you haul on your vehicle? and if you hit a transit point either road block (washed out, police check point, town turns off access to refugees) or you have a vehicle failure (2 flat tires, out of gas, engine goes kerflooey) NOW... how much of what you used to own that you crammed into your car, can you carry on your back? And for how long and how far? To get to... where?



labotomi said:


> When tornados hit this area a couple of years ago the electricity was off for a week on average. Most were back up in 7 days, but some it took an extra week to restore power. Lots of people would drive 40 miles or so until they came to an area not served by the grid that was destroyed. I guess we went 7 days without starving, rioting, looting or forming an exodus convoy. I'm sure many left temporatily, but I also know that I met many who stayed while doing cleanup work.


it's all subjective and relative to what the event is. sometimes it works out well for "most" of the people, that still leaves a "lot" of people in a really serious bind.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

teenprepper1 said:


> Wont people be looking for huge trucks with people. its like saying hey look here. i have supplies and guns. Come and get me. what are the best areas to bug out to and how do you stay stealthy?


Which huge trucks are you speaking of?

If you are asking the bug out/bug in question, as many seem to think, then you just need to think about all the situations for which bugging in is simply not an option. Its not that hard to be imaginative. I mean there are the easy scenarios where some sort of disasters threatens to destroy your home or take your life: hurricanes, tornado, blizzards, WMDs, etc. etc. Then if you use your imagination you can think about compounding problems, such as are to be expected if there is a collapse of the grid and the rule of law, this would include things like fire (without a working FD), crime (and riots), and all the results of the electrical grid going down that you can expect.

You are correct that you don't want to draw attention to yourself when bugging out, but here is the thing to consider, and its why this conversation and line of thought are important to have now, IF YOU BUG OUT you should do it sooner than later because the later you bug out the more people will be looking for "huge trucks" of booty. People don't normally start home invasions and highway robbery at the first sign of a disaster. Looting is in normal times a function of anger rather than need (as demonstrated by the stupid things people often loot) and unless there is anger in your community at the handeling of the crisis I think people will be pretty well behaved at first. Normalcy bias, will teach people that collapses don't happen, because of course: "the government takes care of us", so any disaster will only last a few weeks at most. Its likely that the government propaganda machine (AKA the mainstream news) will re-enforce this presumption. I believe that during the first days of a SHTF, unless their life is directly threatened by a storm or fire or something like that, most people's first response will be to hunker down. They may stage a food run, like we have up here before a major storm, but they will treat it like nothing serious is happening. This is a KEY time to bug out. Its as time goes on, and a second wave of food runs meets empty store shelves that things will start to get ugly. Also in most cases it will take a few days for the guard or police to set up road blocks.

All that being said you always want to be the grey man, which means perhaps those who can afford a MRAP (if they can find one that big sis at DHS hasn't bought) or Humvee might do well to trade in tacti-cool for discreet. Granted if you buy a tank it will be hard to take you down but it will also draw a LOT of unneeded attention. For me a well maintained older SUV, like dozens that I see on the road each day, which has a decent 4x4, a few suspension modifications, a snorkel is a better option than an M1Abram, although that too would be cool. It doesn't have armor but has a lot of capacity for passengers, decent speed and off road handling, and fits in.


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

Dakine said:


> Agreed, but I wasn't thinking specifically about vehicle traffic as much as foot traffic of people on the move.


This tangent started because someone said to stay home because the sheep will be sitting in mile long parking lots that only move a hundred yards every couple of hours. I was trying to think of anything that warranted an ordered evacuation or was something that urged virtually the entire population to leave over a short time yet wasn't hazard enough for me to leave.

Now it's drifted into a debate of other scenarios and we both could come up with an exception to anything the other created.



Dakine said:


> That's non-sequitur.
> 
> Service industries are NOT going to just start magically paying more. Unless consumers are using the product, Starbucks, Motel 6, 7-11/circle k or whatever your convenience store is, insert million businesses here... what are they going to pay people with?? where are they getting it? if there's a collapse on the horizon or actually happening... I really doubt people are going to starbucks for a double latte... or that Starbucks will start paying baristas $500 an hour so they can sell one to somebody at $X per cup of crappy coffee.
> 
> where did the consumer GET the extra dollars? and WHY would they SPEND them on luxuries? it will not happen.


I'll address this though. I've read two books that were focused on hyperinflation and both included some historical examples. Prices for many things changed daily or several times a day during the worst cases. You could pay for a taxi in the morning and have to pay double that in the evening. Now the cabi has more money than he would if his rates hadn't changed. That extra money should be spent as soon as possible because it's losing value quickly. _I never stated that it would be spent on luxuries/starbucks._ Wages were commonly adjusted monthly and as such would fall behind the rising costs up until the next wage negotiation. Other situations have been where the government pegged wages to some sort of inflation index. There have been no hyperinflation examples where wages didn't rise much faster than normal because of the higher "apparent" cost of living.

Overall, the people's wages came out on the losing side so don't take my comments as a belief that wages adjust precisely with inflation and thus cancel out any downside.

The example of paying a barista $500/hr isn't as preposterous as it sounds. One story from someone who lived through an episode of hyperinflation stated that his father got his weekly paycheck, took half of it and paid off their 20 year mortgage and used the other half to buy some dishes. If a similar situation occurred here it's not inconceivable to imagine someone making $200,000/week after the continued hyperinflation. In Argentina the overall effect listed is: 1 (1992) peso = 100,000,000,000 pre-1983. Someone making 10 pesos/hour (I'm guessing) would now be making 1 Trillion pesos. That's an ideal example. We both know that his wage increase wouldn't have matched the actual inflation.



Dakine said:


> I'm staying in any/all of the scenarios I listed. How much can you haul on your vehicle? and if you hit a transit point either road block (washed out, police check point, town turns off access to refugees) or you have a vehicle failure (2 flat tires, out of gas, engine goes kerflooey) NOW... how much of what you used to own that you crammed into your car, can you carry on your back? And for how long and how far? To get to... where?


My point was that if it were bad enough for a mass evacuation then the chance of dying there is much higher than the chance I won't make it to my destination. If someone doesn't have a destination I still think whatever is that dangerous should be avoided.


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## Transplant (Jan 10, 2013)

Dakine said:


> Thug on the spot is not going to go inside and spend massively depreciated fiat dollars or max out his CC. He's going to watch and see who comes out with a basket full of groceries, and if he doesn't take them down right there, he'll follow them and find out where they go. Then he can either attack them on the spot or make a note on their location and go back to the store and scout out another victim.
> 
> being part of the last chance effort at getting something is a really bad place to be when things go sideways.
> 
> prep now FTW!!!


I didn't say thug I said panic buyers and panic buyers will spend money and max out credit cards especially if they have children. Panic buying will happen in the first 12-18 hours. Your right thugs will be hanging around outside to steal kill and well...panic buying will be mostly you middle to upper class they doesn't think any is going to happen.


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## Transplant (Jan 10, 2013)

labotomi said:


> I'm trying to think of a situation where this could happen and it would be OK to bug in. Why would everyone be trying to go somewhere else if there weren't a real hazard?
> 
> An economic collapse wouldn't put everyone on the roads at once. Nuclear war and you're in a target city... probably not a good idea to stay there. Hurricane going to make landfall there... again staying isn't a good idea. Martial law... I don't see everyone jumping in their cars to go somewhere if they have nowhere to go.
> 
> I'm not trying to argue, but I can't think of anything. If you know of something, let me know because I'm probably not prepared for it.


Think back to 9/11 this happen in NY, PA and DC; however, people were panicking all over the US and trying to get home to their families. Foreign nationals were trying to get out the country. Many went so far as to rent cars and drive to Mexico and Canada to get fights home. People bought of food and hunkered down for a while because they were scared to get out.

Think Pearl Harbor, yes it happen in Hawaii but here on the mainland my mother said they stayed close to home because they were afraid they were going to be next. She said in her small town those that had money bought up the flour, sugar and coffee.

It doesn't have to happen in your city for it to cause mass confusion and send everyone into a panic.

Things will probably happen in waves. Unless some master mind can coordinate a national attack in major cities across the country...something like from the show Jericho. I am not saying it won't happen and I am no saying it will all I am saying is if TSHTF in Dallas/Ft.Worth there will be some panic here in my town 5 hours away and people who are not prepared will panic and rush to WalMart and the local grocery stores and empty the shelves. Human nature...especially with mom's we have to make sure we have food for the family.


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## labotomi (Feb 14, 2010)

Transplant said:


> Think back to 9/11 this happen in NY, PA and DC; however, people were panicking all over the US and trying to get home to their families. Foreign nationals were trying to get out the country. Many went so far as to rent cars and drive to Mexico and Canada to get fights home. People bought of food and hunkered down for a while because they were scared to get out.


You may be right, but I don't remember anything about gridlock. I'm sure the traffic was heavier than normal though.

I lived in College Station TX on 9/11 and don't know of anyone that altered their routines other than a small bit due to things like gas stations jacking prices 300%



Transplant said:


> Think Pearl Harbor, yes it happen in Hawaii but here on the mainland my mother said they stayed close to home because they were afraid they were going to be next. She said in her small town those that had money bought up the flour, sugar and coffee.
> 
> It doesn't have to happen in your city for it to cause mass confusion and send everyone into a panic.


This I can see, but it's not on the same page as everyone bugging out, but a run on groceries and fuel would be likely.



Transplant said:


> all I am saying is if TSHTF in Dallas/Ft.Worth there will be some panic here in my town 5 hours away


I'm sure of it, but I think we would disagree on the scope. I would say that a small percentage of people would actually try and get prepared or "more" prepared. Of course it depends on what actually happened. A nuke would spread fear across the country and maybe people would leave the cities (which might be a good idea if your city is considered high value). If it were a terrorist attack, I don't think people would panic in other cities. They tend to strike all at once so if your city wasn't affected around the same time, it probably won't be. Any "natural" cause of SHTF there wouldn't cause a lot of stress to other cities.

JMO


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## Genevieve (Sep 21, 2009)

does anyone think a biological release would set off mass traffic? just wondering. I mean sure the gov would try to keep it from the public, but really, you can't keep something like that a secret lol people talk. and worry about their own families. I think that would cause a panic.


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## Padre (Oct 7, 2011)

labotomi said:


> You may be right, but I don't remember anything about gridlock. I'm sure the traffic was heavier than normal though.


I was in DC and I too can't remember gridlock to "leave" the metro area. On that day a 30minute metro ride took 1.5 hrs as the downtown emptied. People wanted to get home to the burbs and out of the inner city but that is different than leaving the city/area completely. People were forced to come to the realization that another plane could crash into another target down town at any moment, and so they got out of down town. Personally I like to think big and so I was worried about WMD and packing my car to bug out to western MD, but I remember checking the traffic reports and seeing the roads largely empty by the time of the evening commute because people went home and stayed home.



Genevieve said:


> does anyone think a biological release would set off mass traffic? just wondering. I mean sure the gov would try to keep it from the public, but really, you can't keep something like that a secret lol people talk. and worry about their own families. I think that would cause a panic.


My experience with hurricanes is people won't leave unless they are confronted with the immanent possibility of dying. Thus the terrorism on 9-11 didn't empty the cities per se but did empty down town in DC and NYC. People SAW planes hitting buildings down town, and so they figured I need to not be down town... A hurricane can cause a panicked evacuation, as can a flood, tornado, or impending missile strike but only when a person really starts to worry that they are in the path of the disaster and will likely to die if they don't get out of the way. Other events which POTENTIALLY could threaten your life will not cause a rush because the risk is not great enough to make people take the risk seriously. Read Sandy. After all remember we were hearing about the monster storm for a weak before it happened! Despite this some folks didn't leave the area while others didn't prepare for a few weeks without power...

So what about a pandemic or biological weapon attack? Unlike a nuke or hurricane bugs are scary because they can come at you from a dozen directions. So initially no, I don't think you would expect a panicked exit from the cities, because there won't be a clear threat or direction of egress. With modern transportation it is likely that by the time you recognize a pandemic you will be unable to control it; it will be everywhere! Thus the only SAFE place to be during a pandemic is away from other people. This seems like a simple enough answer until you ask the food question. People on average have three days of food on hand, so you've got three days during which I think most will stay home. Food, throughout history, has been the great SHTF catalyst of movement. As with many other SHTF disasters the REALITY CHECK that will cause people to panic will be the inability to get food.

If the government is smart they will close hospitals but not cities, ask people to stay off the road, and demonstrate that they have a plan to get people food. Closing a city makes people feel trapped and I think will have the opposite effect than the one desired, causing people to flee, some of whom will spread the disease. Social distancing, or the practice of staying away from folks, is a proven method of controlling a pandemic, and though hard, especially when we must distance ourselves from the ones we love, who are potentially dying, when people are made to realize that there is no cure and so any contact could potentially lead to your death I think they will do it.

All that being said, while you might have three days reprieve from the mob, it is my feeling that the government will try to quarantine effected areas as they appear, a tactic that will, as I said, backfire. So during a BioSHTF I think you have 3-7 days of grace before people try to exodus the cities, but less than 3 days before the Government tries to impede your freedom to travel, IF you are near an outbreak area.


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## Transplant (Jan 10, 2013)

Padre said:


> I was in DC and I too can't remember gridlock to "leave" the metro area. On that day a 30minute metro ride took 1.5 hrs as the downtown emptied. People wanted to get home to the burbs and out of the inner city but that is different than leaving the city/area completely. People were forced to come to the realization that another plane could crash into another target down town at any moment, and so they got out of down town. Personally I like to think big and so I was worried about WMD and packing my car to bug out to western MD, but I remember checking the traffic reports and seeing the roads largely empty by the time of the evening commute because people went home and stayed home.


I guess it would just depend on where are and your definition of grid lock. You just described what I was saying. Everyone was trying to get home to family. However, in DC most people use the metro. In towns that do not have mass transits people have to drive so in my opinion if you put everyone on the road at once in a panic situation you have a slow moving mass of people - my definition of grid lock. But then again I consider I-95 on a long weekend with construction a grid lock too. But hey that's just me. :lolsmash:


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## BillM (Dec 29, 2010)

Fortune has it that we live in a rural community so we are going to shelter in place ! The last place I would want to be is on the road during a SHTF situation.


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## Dakine (Sep 4, 2012)

Transplant said:


> I didn't say thug I said panic buyers and panic buyers will spend money and max out credit cards especially if they have children. Panic buying will happen in the first 12-18 hours. Your right thugs will be hanging around outside to steal kill and well...panic buying will be mostly you middle to upper class they doesn't think any is going to happen.


I know, you didn't say thug I did, what I was trying to point out is that thugs are not prepped, and they're going to hunt baited fields... a.k.a. grocery stores watching people come out that were doing panic buying. So, if you're already prepped and staying home while everyone else is panic buying, you're not going to draw the attention of thieves who are also now in panic mode as well.


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## LongRider (May 8, 2012)

The closest high density population is about 100 miles from here the only way here from there is a two lane highway that goes through three small communities before getting here. If SHTF that road will be blockaded at each of those communities and possibly destroyed. The turn off to our dirt road is barely visible and many miss it. The dirt road has several points where it is only one car wide with steep high cliffs on either side, that will be blockaded and manned by armed men and back up shooters hidden about fifty yards back. When that truck coming rollin around the mountain they will be allowed to return the way they came with all they have or stay for a dirt nap. Their choice.


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## crabapple (Jan 1, 2012)

labotomi said:


> I'm trying to think of a situation where this could happen and it would be OK to bug in. Why would everyone be trying to go somewhere else if there weren't a real hazard?
> 
> An economic collapse wouldn't put everyone on the roads at once. Nuclear war and you're in a target city... probably not a good idea to stay there. Hurricane going to make landfall there... again staying isn't a good idea.
> Martial law... I don't see everyone jumping in their cars to go somewhere if they have nowhere to go.
> ...


Every one out of food & killed everyone they know that have food, so they all are leaving.
I stay hidden in the basement under the false floor that's screwed shut from my side.
I have air,water, food, saw dust for the toilet & the food that I took with me. 
If they do not burn down the house & find the stone roof of the basement.
I should be fine for a month or so.


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## BillS (May 30, 2011)

labotomi said:


> I'm trying to think of a situation where this could happen and it would be OK to bug in. Why would everyone be trying to go somewhere else if there weren't a real hazard?
> 
> An economic collapse wouldn't put everyone on the roads at once. Nuclear war and you're in a target city... probably not a good idea to stay there. Hurricane going to make landfall there... again staying isn't a good idea. Martial law... I don't see everyone jumping in their cars to go somewhere if they have nowhere to go.
> 
> I'm not trying to argue, but I can't think of anything. If you know of something, let me know because I'm probably not prepared for it.


If people didn't have food they'd travel to visit relatives who might have food and take them in. I expect the roads to be jammed with traffic and disabled vehicles after it hits the fan.


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## VoorTrekker (Oct 7, 2012)

Bugging in has its merits, like intelligence on mass civilian dispositions. 
Remember, the smart people left Pompeii the day before Mt. Vesuvius erupted.


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## northstarprepper (Mar 19, 2013)

I live in the outer suburbs of a major metro area. I plan to stay put in most scenarios. There are some circumstances that call for bugging out, but in those cases, it will be done in a controlled way to escape a specific danger. To leave with no intention of returning involves only one or two scenarios that I hope never happen. In either of those, hundreds of millions of Americans will die and my home would become my tomb if I stayed. I am prepared for either, but both the Mrs. and I hope to stay to assist others through the hard times, if we have the choice.


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## northstarprepper (Mar 19, 2013)

In a BioSHTF, we would likely stay put, at least at first. We are close enough to farm fields to get out quick on foot if necessary, but in MN, I am going nowhere from October through March. Weather can still kill you up here in the winter. We have a big SUV, so bugging out can be done quickly. Can make it to Missouri on one tank of gas. We will have extra tho. Blacked out windows in back will keep us low profile...just old folks traveling you know. We keep our stuff ready to load out so we can be gone in a hurry. Still working on securing the house quicker. Thanks to another thread, my biohazard readiness has gone way up with the last few items being shipped today.


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## nightwing (Jul 26, 2014)

People are a lot like sharks even during everyday life 
there are pimps trolling the bus stations burglars cruising neighborhoods
looking for a home to break into nightclubs are sometimes created for 
a singular kink. 
Now we all know that the Internet has been used to track and connect 
with all the above.

In a event these things that we hear of will be happening as well if you try to help and that sounds all warm and fuzzy but like posting your going on vacation on the net it will end badly.
a drop of blood in the water or a word from someone you "HELPED"
hits the jungle telegraph you will be surrounded by others who feel 
that if your willing to give to anyone they are just as needy and if your 
low or do not have enough they will turn nasty.
Watch any video of U.N. food distribution fighting beatings and murders have happened on site and in a few miles as people track them and murder them.
Like here where there are numerous murders the chances of all but a few to be solved forget it.

Cooking will drift scent of food many hundreds of yards and in a time of 
famine people will be much more attuned to scent so cooking in the 
normal manner will be like sending up a flare.
This is the time when prepackaged meals that need only water are perfect 
until the initial craziness dies off (I do mean the word die) then you may 
can settle in to some cooking regime.

I think that fires will run rampant in many cities if we have an event of 
national effect 911 calls will go unanswered and you will be on your own 
Now we have a problem with fire bugs consider a time when no emergency services will be coming and neighbors may not want to get 
involved what sort of freakoid things will not happen I think you will see
mall ninjas small gangs and known gangs roaming the areas and like 
what people did during Katrina killing each other for nothing 
the streets of New Orleans were flooded and I remember a few guys in a 
boat full of stolen beer and a big screen TV.

All of the pharmacies were looted hospitals and doctors offices.
In what way does anyone think it will be any different in a national level?
Here is my problem people lie and if your in conversation with others 
that they need to prep and they are not or their ideas of being prepared is owning a can opener and filling the bath tub with water is a plan.
they are coming to your house and I would be willing to bet they don't 
even bring the water with them.

Scared people do not do things that make sense or make good decisions 
they faint or scream when they should not nervous shaky crying all
the reasons you do not want them around you.
If people are being tortured or the family harmed they may try to 
bargain with their captors and sell you down the river.

look at Australia's dirty little secret of after the confiscated weapons 
the home invasion rate went up in the outlying areas 
and some very interesting techniques used by the police.
one man was hunted down and killed for something he did not even do.


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

teenprepper1 said:


> Wont people be looking for huge trucks with people. its like saying hey look here. i have supplies and guns. Come and get me. what are the best areas to bug out to and how do you stay stealthy?


I think your question needs some context. I assume you are talking about a SHTF scenario such as am EMP, but I'd rather not assume and give you a lame response. I'm also not sure what you mean by "huge trucks with people". People don't ride around in 18 wheelers, so are you talking about something like a big pickup or SUV? Those are so common I don't see that they signify anything.

As for bugging out, generally you want to be where your preps are. Bugging out implies you failed at that. Having said that I have relatives in various places and if I had to totally evacuate the entire area, I'd head for one of their places and if any of them showed up here I'd take them in, so the answer to your question is where would you have support waiting for you?


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

For those trying to remember traffic on 9/11, I was in the middle of it. NYC depends heavily on mass transit, so the issue was not just cars, but every form of transit. The PATH system (trains under the Hudson river) was flooded. Tunnels were closed and just getting off of Manhattan was a problem.

The following day there were all sorts of restrictions on car travel and of course the PATH remained out of service and a bunch of subway lines that went under the WTC were obviously disabled. Traffic was pretty much a mess for the next 6 months.

The issue was not some gridlock like folks trying to get out of coastal cities ahead of Hurricane Rita, but just day to day traffic in NYC, already bad, became worse.


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## Caribou (Aug 18, 2012)

labotomi said:


> What reasons would they order an evacuation? Chemical spill, nuke plant disaster, fires, hurricane/typhoon, meteor strike imminent? I'd probably leave in each of those situations.
> .


In Katrina some left and others stayed.

Right or wrong each of us will have to figure out whether to stay or go. It will be different for each of us. It will probably not be a static situation so be adaptable. I plan to stay but then I don't absolutely know what the event will be.


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## Ozarker (Jul 29, 2014)

My truck will have a sign on it; "Grace Funeral Equipment" saying "what can I help with sir"? 

Why does this thread make me think of the movie, Independence Day with that heard of RVs rolling across the Salt Flats ???

You'll find that after an emergency most people are helpful, they are not a bunch of roving bandits. In a hurricane down in AL, there was debris all over, people traveling banded together, complete strangers moving in small groups as a convoy. One car got a flat and the group stopped, fixed it, then moved on. The concern was not about being robbed or ambushed the concern was getting everyone out of the effected area safely. After everyone had moved out of the area they peeled off going their own way. That is the reality of people on the road trying to get away from a dangerous area. Learn to lead, know when to follow!


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## Geek999 (Jul 9, 2013)

Ozarker said:


> My truck will have a sign on it; "Grace Funeral Equipment" saying "what can I help with sir"?
> 
> Why does this thread make me think of the movie, Independence Day with that heard of RVs rolling across the Salt Flats ???
> 
> You'll find that after an emergency most people are helpful, they are not a bunch of roving bandits. In a hurricane down in AL, there was debris all over, people traveling banded together, complete strangers moving in small groups as a convoy. One car got a flat and the group stopped, fixed it, then moved on. The concern was not about being robbed or ambushed the concern was getting everyone out of the effected area safely. After everyone had moved out of the area they peeled off going their own way. That is the reality of people on the road trying to get away from a dangerous area. Learn to lead, know when to follow!


That has been my experience as well, notaby on 9/11, but clearly experiences like Katrina, the LA riots, etc. Also need to be considered. I suspect that breakdowns would be more widespread in the context of a scenario expected to last indefinitely.


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## bkt (Oct 10, 2008)

I'm staying put unless the danger is greater doing that than leaving. My house can hold a whole lot more resources than I can transport. As with everything, use your head and don't make only one plan.


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## sgtusmc98 (Sep 8, 2013)

I can't imagine a situation that would cause me to leave, wild fire or tornado would be the most likely but tornados are fast and unpredictable, they don't normally come on the ridge I live on, for fire I'd probably stay and fight but we aren't normally dry enough to have the big ones they normally just creep on the ground. 

As far as other stuff TEOFTWAWKI stuff, I have more resources established and known here even if the house was gone than I would have anywhere else. I am far enough from cities I don't think many would get here, coming here and staying worked for the Cherokees that gave the one finger salute to the man. 


Sent from my iPhone using Survival Forum


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## crabapple (Jan 1, 2012)

When SHTF there will be no net/website to say I was right & you are wrong.
So let's hope that none of us find out & move on to something else.


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