# Economic Alert: If You’re Not Worried Yet…You Should Be



## UncleJoe

*More commentary from Brandon Smith*

For the past four years I have been covering the progression of the global economic crisis with an emphasis on the debilitating effects it has had on the American financial system. Only once before have I ever issued an economic alert, and this was at the onset of the very first credit downgrade in U.S. history by S&P. I do not take the word "alert" lightly. Since 2008 we have seen a cycle of events that have severely weakened our country's foundation, but each event has then been followed by a lull, sometimes 4 to 6 months at a stretch, which seems to disarm the public, drawing them back into apathy and complacency. The calm moments before each passing storm give Americans a false sense of hope that our capsized fiscal vessel will somehow right itself if we just hold on a little longer...

I don't have to tell most people within the Liberty Movement that this is not going to happen. Unfortunately, there are many out there who do not share our awareness of the situation. Debt implosions and currency devaluation NEVER simply "fade away"; they are always followed by extreme social and political strife that tends to sully the doorsteps of almost every individual and family. The notion that we can coast through such a tempest unscathed is an insane idea, filled with a dangerous potential for sour regrets.

There are some people who also believe that the private Federal Reserve with the Treasury in tow has the ability to prolong the worst symptoms of the collapse indefinitely, or at least, until they have long since kicked the bucket and don't have to worry about it anymore (the 'pay-it forward to our grandkids' crowd) . I can say with 100% certainty that most of us will live to see the climax of the breakdown, and that this breakdown is about to enter a more precarious state before the end of this year. You can only stretch a sun-boiled rubber band so far before it snaps completely, and America's financial elasticity has long been melted away.

A pummeling hailstorm of news items and international developments have made the first half of 2012 almost impossible to track and analyze. The frequency at which negative information has surfaced is almost dizzying. However, a pattern and a recognizable motion are beginning to take shape, and, I believe, a loose timeline is beginning to form.

At the end of January, I covered the incredible nosedive of the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of global shipping rates that signals a fall in global demand) to historic lows. I pointed out the tendency of stocks and the general economy to crash around 8 months (sometimes a little longer) after the BDI makes such a dramatic downturn. Mainstream analysts, of course, attributed the fall to an "overproduction of ships", which is the same exact excuse they used when the BDI collapsed back in 2008 just before the derivatives bubble burst. It would seem that the cable TV talking heads were wrong yet again, as the international market facade quickly evaporates right in line with the BDI's almost prophetic knack for calling an economic derailment in advance.

Here are some of the most important reasons why every American should be prepared for much harder days, especially before the end of 2012:

The European Union Is Officially Dead In The Water

Stick a fork in er', the EU is done! We are talking about full scale dismantlement, likely followed by a reformation of core nations and multiple collapse scenarios of peripheral countries. The writing is all over the wall in the wake of the latest election results in Greece and France, where, as alternative researchers have been predicting for some time, the battle between the government spending crowd and proponents of austerity has reached a fever pitch.

The Greeks and the French are royally pissed over draconian cuts in public programs and the destruction of pensions which have been a mainstay of their economies for quite some time. They are also furious over being sold off like collateral to the IMF and World Bank. Rightly so. Like the American taxpayer, the taxpayers of floundering EU nations are wrongly being held responsible for the financial mismanagement and fraud of their governments and global banks which have remained untouched and unpunished for their trespasses. The problem is, the voters of both countries are signing on to the socialist/quasi-communist bandwagon in response. In Greece, the Left Coalition Party, a splinter group of the traditional communist party, has now taken a primary position of power:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/us-greece-idUSBRE8440DG20120507

In France, voters have elected socialist Francois Hollande (a Bilderberg attendee), whose latest promise is to spend France into recovery through his "pro-growth agenda":

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...hollande-won-t-difficult-obama-195617064.html

I have no doubt that the elections of the EU are as manipulated by elitists as they are here in the U.S., and I'm sure false paradigms abound. Have Europeans forgotten that it was overt government spending that set them on the path to calamity in the first place? Or, are they like Americans; just desperate for any change in the ranks of leadership? One would think that they would take note of the problems here in our country and realize that electing a socialist to replace another socialist is no way out of economic hardship.

Former officials like Nicolas Sarkozy may have claimed to be distanced from the socialist ideal, but, as with all globalist puppets, their actions did not match their rhetoric, and they have always supported policies of centralization and big government. The French and the Greeks have essentially replaced closet collectivists with outspoken collectivists, and will see NO relief from the crisis in the Euro-zone as a result of the political reordering. In fact, the stage has now been set for a volatile chain of dominos. Germany, which is the only economy left holding the EU together, has been unyielding on austerity cuts. A conflict between France and Germany is now inevitable. Neither will compromise their position, and I can see no other eventual result than a reexamination and perhaps abandonment of the EU charter.

How does this affect America? Being that international banks and corporations have forced our countries into interdependency through the engineered chicanery of globalization, any collapse in Europe is going to strike hard around the world, but the worst will hit the U.S. and China. Which is probably why China is disengaging trade away from the U.S. and the EU and focusing on other developing nations:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-china-economy-trade-idUSBRE84702N20120508

If you thought the Greek rollercoaster was a pain in the neck for investment markets, just wait until the whole of the EU is in a shambles!

Spain is next in line, with a 25% official unemployment rate and a massive black market economy forming. As I have been saying for years now, when governments disrupt the financial survival of the people, they WILL form their own alternatives, including black markets and barter markets. It is about survival. The Spanish government does not care much for these alternatives, though, and has now banned cash transactions over 2500 euros in a futile attempt to squeeze taxes out of the populace through digitally tracked payment methods:

http://thedailybell.com/3814/Spain-Bans-Cash

Another major concern for Americans is the fact that Europeans are inching towards an abandonment of the dollar. Francois Hollande has openly called for an end to the dollar's world reserve status, and with a majority backing of the French people, he could easily make this happen, at least where France is concerned. All it takes is for a few key countries to publically and completely drop the Greenback and the dollar's reputation as a safe haven investment will be quashed. This could very well happen before 2012 is over.

QE3 Is The End

Here is the bottom line; U.S. growth is a theater of shadows. There has been no progress, no recovery, only the misrepresentation of statistics. Millions of Americans have fallen off unemployment rolls because they have been jobless for too long, which lowers the unemployment rate, but does not change the fact that they are still without work. Durable goods orders are dropping like an avalanche. U.S. credit has been lowered yet again by ratings agency Egan-Jones. With China making bilateral trade deals in numerous countries on the condition that the dollar be dropped as the primary purchasing mechanism, and with the EU turning to economic mulch, the currency's safety is nonexistent. Traditional investors who cling to the idea that a falling Euro spells dollar strength will be sorely disappointed when the currency is suddenly being rejected in international currency markets.

The Federal Reserve has already stated that any signs of "relapse" into recession (the recession that we never left) will be met with all options on the table, including QE3:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE83B1KD20120412

I believe that QE3 will probably be announced this year (due in large part to trauma from Europe), and, that this will trigger a mass movement by foreign nations to drop the dollar as the world reserve. QE3 will be the straw that broke the camel. How exactly this will play out socially and politically, I do not know (I could take a good guess though). But, the technical results are predictable. The Fed will respond to the lack of treasury purchases by ramping up fiat printing in order to cover the ever increasing costs of the government machine. The Greenback will immediately lose a large portion of its value, at least in terms of imported goods, causing inflation in prices. Oil and energy prices will skyrocket if OPEC follows suit (which they will, though the Saudis may still honor dollars for a time). Doing any traditional business will become nearly impossible, and price inflation will dominate the lives and the minds of average unprepared citizens.

The amount of time that it will take for these difficulties to unfold is also not clear. We are operating in uncharted territory, and dealing with a collapse scenario on a truly planetary scale. My best advice is to assume that the avalanche will move fast.

While markets in our country have seen only mild disruptions so far this year, their solidity is predicated on a host of props and costume pieces, any one of which could pull the rug out from under America's suspension of disbelief if it strays but a little from the illusion. As long as the dollar holds, stocks can be infused with bailout juice through major banks. So can major companies and even desperate state governments on the verge of bankruptcy. The Dow will remain relatively friendly, and day traders and the public will remain happy. As soon as the dollar comes into question, all bets are off&#8230;

Does This Mean Doom, Or Just Another Bad Day?

The real beginning of today's collapse is tied to the events of 2008. The pace of it has been deceptive, but also, in a way, it is a gift. Over the past four years, I have personally seen the awakening of thousands of people that may have never had the chance if the system had gone into full spectrum breakdown right away. The question now is, how much longer can the U.S. wobble along on one wheel? In my view, and from the evidence I see in markets at the moment, not much longer.

It is hard to set aside any expectations that the next leg down will be easy to digest for the populace. The reality of our predicament is starting to hit home. All the tax return checks have been spent. The credit cards have been maxed. The new cars have been sold off and traded in for ghetto-mobiles. The good jobs have been replaced with Taco Bell slavery. A trip to see The Avengers is now the family vacation. And, the distractions of reality TV just aren't buttering our bread anymore. It's the little things at first that really signal the financial mood of a society, as well as reveal the more vital and looming issues just over the horizon.

All indicators suggest that this year will be unlike any other before. In 2008, we saw the first trigger events for the collapse. In 2008/2009, we saw the creation of the bailout culture, setting the stage for inflation and dollar disintegration. In 2010, we saw the first bilateral trade deal cutting out the dollar between China and Russia, which is now the template for trade deals all over the globe. In 2011, we saw the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the crisis in the EU become epidemic. In 2012, I see not just another difficulty to add to the mountain, but a culmination of all these detriments to produce something entirely new; a vast and subversive realignment forcing many of us to take a more aggressive stance in the fight for an economically and socially free America.

Financial disasters have always been a convenient catalyst for a host of even more frightening obstacles, including civil unrest, and blatant totalitarianism. This is the cusp. It is one of those moments that people of later generations read about in awe, and sometimes horror. The "doom" is not in the event, but in the response. What we make of the days approaching determines the darkness that they cast upon the future. It is a test. It is not something to be dreaded. It is something to be seized upon, and dealt with, as great men and women before us have done. At the very least, we know that it is coming. That, in itself, could well seal our success&#8230;

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/765-economic-alert-if-youre-not-worried-yetyou-should-be


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## Tweto

I hope he's wrong.

BTW China just received approval to buy a very large US bank. I don't believe that this has ever happen before. The news story did not identify the bank.


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## partdeux

Supports my feelings, that we will see QE3 early to mid summer, with a collapse before the election.


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## Possumfam

Tweto said:


> I hope he's wrong.
> 
> BTW China just received approval to buy a very large US bank. I don't believe that this has ever happen before. The news story did not identify the bank.


Briefly looked at Drudge, here's just one comment from the report.

It will buy up to 80 percent of the US unit of the Hong Kong-based Bank of East Asia, which operates 13 branches in New York and California.


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## stayingthegame

Tweto said:


> I hope he's wrong.
> 
> BTW China just received approval to buy a very large US bank. I don't believe that this has ever happen before. The news story did not identify the bank.


it was the Bank of Asia


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## stayingthegame

heard that Europe's unemployment number includes those who are under employed and those who were looking and quit. ours if you gave up looking, under employed or only have part time (like DH) you don't count. if all those people were included our figures would be over 10 %.


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## Marcus

I suggest you might wish to read Aftershock by Weidemer. He predicted the housing collapse of 2008 in 2006. According to him, there's still 2 more bubbles left to pop: the government debt bubble and the dollar bubble. He's looking for a collapse next year at the earliest and 2016 at the latest.


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## BillS

stayingthegame said:


> heard that Europe's unemployment number includes those who are under employed and those who were looking and quit. ours if you gave up looking, under employed or only have part time (like DH) you don't count. if all those people were included our figures would be over 10 %.


The U-6 unemployment rate is more accurate than the figures that government currently uses. It was 14.5% for April.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

Shadowstats.com uses an alternative way of measuring unemployment that puts the figure at 23%.

http://www.shadowstats.com/

The unemployment statistics don't measure the true collapse of the economy. If you worked for 20 years for a company that paid you $50,000 and you lost your job and now you work at McDonalds, you're not counted as unemployed.


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## BillS

There is no economic growth. The economy continues to shrink. The GDP numbers are adjusted by the government's bogus inflation numbers otherwise the numbers would show that the economy shrunk by a 5%-6% annual rate.

I get a laugh out of the unemployment numbers. They'll predict 385,000 job losses for one week. The number they'll report will be 375,000 so they'll say the economy is getting better. Then a week later they'll revise the job losses to 385,000. For the economy to improve we need monthly hires to be at least 3,000,000. But think of it this way: You're on the Titanic. It takes on 375,000 gallons of water every minute. Every four minutes they bail 100,000 gallons. So if in the next minute it takes on only 350,000 gallons would you consider that to be progress? 

I agree with the original poster. I don't think the economy can keep going the way it is. America as a country is at the time of "twilight's last gleaming." I think the collapse will happen sometime this year. Obama will declare martial law. The election will be postponed. America will descend into anarchy, violence, and mass starvation. It will be the biggest disaster in the history of the world. It will usher in the one-world government prophesied in Revelation.


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## Corkster

others use the term 'mutually assured global economic destruction', it seems to be valid even assured, only the timing is unknown. 
will most people live throw it and come out on the other side, 'yes'. Will they be changed forever by the experience, 'yes'. the great depression stories I was taught will seem like the good old days. 
my goal is to help others, spending my golden years as a productive mentor not a leach.


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## Corkster

BillS,
excellent observations
Corkster


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## Magus

Buy Beans, bullets, band aids, and even bibles. that old coal scuttle just ain't as comfy as it was.


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## Immolatus

_The Greeks and the French are royally pissed over draconian cuts in public programs and the destruction of pensions which have been a mainstay of their economies for quite some time. *They are also furious over being sold off like collateral to the IMF and World Bank.* Rightly so. Like the American taxpayer,* the taxpayers of floundering EU nations are wrongly being held responsible* for the financial mismanagement and fraud of their governments and global banks which have remained untouched and unpunished for their trespasses. *The problem is, the voters of both countries are signing on to the socialist/quasi-communist bandwagon in response.*_

I dont think this point is being brought up enough. As an average Joe, its easy to blame 'them' (banksters, elite, etc) for your country getting screwed over, but the fact is that everyone benefitted from such gubt largesse at least in the short run. Yes, I am discounting the whole opportunity cost of gubt spending, but in the here and now they would be broke and homeless. They (and this applies to the US as well by the fact that we continue to elect the Dems and Reps into office) prove their ignorance and culpability by electing people that are even more socialist than the last guy. Its easy to point the finger somewhere else, and much harder to accept responsibility, especially when you are benefitting from the system with 'free' health care and higher education.
The gubt spends more than it can afford, but electing someone who will spend even more is the solution? And this is the banks fault? Yes, the banks are in bed with the gubt, and everyone knows it. Ultimately its the sheep that keep the whole system afloat, in the EU and the US. By hook or by crook, the people hold the power.


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## UncleJoe

Immolatus said:


> the people hold the power.


There is a lot of truth in this statement.

The people of Iceland are a perfect example. They are in the process of taking back their country yet it isn't being reported on any news outlets. Can't let the people of the world hear that kind of story. It may be contagious.

http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f31/no-news-iceland-why-11070/


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## SuspectZero

Someone mentioned the book Aftershock. I have not read it but what the poster said is something I think of daily. There are still more bubbles to burst but one no one talks about is that late 2016 one. Back when 401k's were first created is when Americans lost their means of retirement and it will crash our system. Many people before that had pensions that were defined benefits. J. Doe will get 1,000 a month. Now we live on contributions through our 401ks(even though less than 50% eligible contribute) that fluctuate with the market. So what happens when the retiree at 80 looses whats left in his 401k from a crash and now is unhireable. Social Security will not cover the inflation we are seeing including rising healthcare. The other problem with 401ks is that when J. Doe turns 70.5 years old he now is forced to sell a percentage of his 401k back to the market. Sounds nominal but the problem is that the 401k generation will hit 70.5 starting in 2016. 3 million people will be forced to flood the market with their 401k stock. The next year the number rises to 4 million. The issue is that the number continues to grow and floods the market with no end in site. So how does a market recover when it is being constantly flooded with sell offs everyday. A burst bubble indeed.


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## nhfieldrep

For a glimpse into the future, read Patriots by J. W. Rawles. Seems we are headed that way. I think the road is paved and has become an easy way for the hapless sheep to walk.


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## mamabear2012

nhfieldrep- Just started reading Patriots last night!


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## BlueShoe

James Dines wrote a book 32-33 yrs ago that called the economic collapse of 2008 to the exact yr. Hard to get better than that. A couple yrs ago he called rare-earths as the next boom. Some went up 7000% afterwards. China controls 95% of the world market.

The current economic situation is a result of the Tech bubble. Remember during the 90s all the dotcoms and technology companies going hyperbolic? Then they went bust. When 9-11-2001 rolled up it exposed all the shenanigans corporations were pulling through corrupt and illegal bookkeeping (cooking books and trying to keep the ball rolling after the feast was over). The Tech bubble was the first bubble that burst. If you remember there was a slight recession that began about 2000. In an effort to ward off the recession the Federal Reserve laxed lending practices to jump start the economy. That led to the housing bubble. So calling the housing bubble in 2006 wasn't hard to do for an insider. The 2nd bubble was housing and that led to the subsequent bubbles.


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## Vertigo

UncleJoe said:


> There is a lot of truth in this statement.
> 
> The people of Iceland are a perfect example. They are in the process of taking back their country yet it isn't being reported on any news outlets. Can't let the people of the world hear that kind of story. It may be contagious.
> 
> http://www.preparedsociety.com/forum/f31/no-news-iceland-why-11070/


Actually not just the people of Iceland. In Ireland the situation was very dire as well, and they too hit the brakes hard and underwent some serious cutting back...but no news from them anymore... Guess it doesn't play into the EU story too well 

V.


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## BlueShoe

Public debt to GDP: 
Ireland 157% 
Greece @ 177%
Spain @ 70%
Italy @ 118%

*External debt to GDP:*
Ireland @ 1250% Yeah--1250%
Greece @ 227%
Spain @ 230%
Italy @ 162%

Ireland has only 100 tons of gold.
Italy has over 2400 tons of gold

"They" have just decided that they'll take gold as collateral in lieu of currency from the PIIGS. Now gold is money huh?


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## Vertigo

tenOC said:


> Public debt to GDP:
> Ireland 157%
> Greece @ 177%
> Spain @ 70%
> Italy @ 118%
> 
> *External debt to GDP:*
> Ireland @ 1250% Yeah--1250%
> Greece @ 227%
> Spain @ 230%
> Italy @ 162%
> 
> Ireland has only 100 tons of gold.
> Italy has over 2400 tons of gold
> 
> "They" have just decided that they'll take gold as collateral in lieu of currency from the PIIGS. Now gold is money huh?


Yep, no more sleep for me tonight...


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## BlueShoe

Italy has the gold. Wouldn't you hate to be in Italy where the gold is that they're after? Might work out for Ireland.


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## BillS

SuspectZero said:


> Someone mentioned the book Aftershock. I have not read it but what the poster said is something I think of daily. There are still more bubbles to burst but one no one talks about is that late 2016 one. Back when 401k's were first created is when Americans lost their means of retirement and it will crash our system. Many people before that had pensions that were defined benefits. J. Doe will get 1,000 a month. Now we live on contributions through our 401ks(even though less than 50% eligible contribute) that fluctuate with the market. So what happens when the retiree at 80 looses whats left in his 401k from a crash and now is unhireable. Social Security will not cover the inflation we are seeing including rising healthcare. The other problem with 401ks is that when J. Doe turns 70.5 years old he now is forced to sell a percentage of his 401k back to the market. Sounds nominal but the problem is that the 401k generation will hit 70.5 starting in 2016. 3 million people will be forced to flood the market with their 401k stock. The next year the number rises to 4 million. The issue is that the number continues to grow and floods the market with no end in site. So how does a market recover when it is being constantly flooded with sell offs everyday. A burst bubble indeed.


I don't think we're going to make it that far. We're seeing more and more countries making deals with each other to trade in their own currencies. These include the BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Some of those countries also have side deals with other countries or regions to trade in their own currencies or gold: China-Japan, India-Iran, China-Africa, China-United Arab Emirates.

According to this website over 60% of international trade still involves the dollar:

http://neweconomics.net.nz/index.ph...-reform/international-interest-free-currency/

If you look at it another way, at least a third of international trade no longer involves the dollar.

For almost every country in the world, their currencies are used to immediately buy goods, services, or property in their countries. For the US, an estimated 90% of the dollars in existence are held by other countries for use in foreign trade. That means when other countries dump the dollar we'll see prices increase tenfold, most likely in a very short time.

Here's a good article on the subject:

http://articles.businessinsider.com..._international-trade-dollar-iranian-sanctions


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## Magus

Good links.

I think we are about to have an "interesting" October surprise!


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## BillM

*Finacial collapse*



BillS said:


> I don't think we're going to make it that far. We're seeing more and more countries making deals with each other to trade in their own currencies. These include the BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Some of those countries also have side deals with other countries or regions to trade in their own currencies or gold: China-Japan, India-Iran, China-Africa, China-United Arab Emirates.
> 
> According to this website over 60% of international trade still involves the dollar:
> 
> http://neweconomics.net.nz/index.ph...-reform/international-interest-free-currency/
> 
> If you look at it another way, at least a third of international trade no longer involves the dollar.
> 
> For almost every country in the world, their currencies are used to immediately buy goods, services, or property in their countries. For the US, an estimated 90% of the dollars in existence are held by other countries for use in foreign trade. That means when other countries dump the dollar we'll see prices increase tenfold, most likely in a very short time.
> 
> Here's a good article on the subject:
> 
> http://articles.businessinsider.com..._international-trade-dollar-iranian-sanctions


BillS you are spot on. our own financial collapse is comming very soon.


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## Magus

It's actually here now. look at what the Euros and Russians say about sinking money into our clusterphuk economy.Mitt might not have time to save it if he even intends to!I have issues with some of BillS advice on prepping but when he's right he's zeroed like a laser!


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## UncleJoe

Vertigo said:


> Actually not just the people of Iceland. In Ireland the situation was very dire as well, and they too hit the brakes hard and underwent some serious cutting back...but no news from them anymore... Guess it doesn't play into the EU story too well
> 
> V.


 Thanks Vertigo. I didn't here anything about Ireland. I'll have to dig in to that a bit.


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## Marcus

BillS said:


> I don't think we're going to make it that far. We're seeing more and more countries making deals with each other to trade in their own currencies. These include the BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Some of those countries also have side deals with other countries or regions to trade in their own currencies or gold: China-Japan, India-Iran, China-Africa, China-United Arab Emirates.
> 
> According to this website over 60% of international trade still involves the dollar:
> 
> http://neweconomics.net.nz/index.ph...-reform/international-interest-free-currency/
> 
> If you look at it another way, at least a third of international trade no longer involves the dollar.
> 
> For almost every country in the world, their currencies are used to immediately buy goods, services, or property in their countries. For the US, an estimated 90% of the dollars in existence are held by other countries for use in foreign trade. That means when other countries dump the dollar we'll see prices increase tenfold, most likely in a very short time.
> 
> Here's a good article on the subject:
> 
> http://articles.businessinsider.com..._international-trade-dollar-iranian-sanctions


One of the conclusions of *Aftershock* is that the Dollar is likely not to continue to be a reserve currency due to runaway currency creation by the Fed. Because fiat currencies require a level of trust by the public, rampant money creation without a corresponding growth in the econmy debases the value of a fiat currency and *destroys* the necessary trust for that fiat currency to be accepted. We're already starting to see that with the creation of gold-based currencies in certain areas.
The authors conclude we're looking at 50% unemployment, the stock market losing 90%, and the collapse of the dollar. They recommend selling all non-essential assets and buying gold and silver for use afterwards when things are somewhat back to the new normal.


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## tac803

It's amazing how many people still can't or won't see the writing on the wall. Preaching to the choir here, but we need to WAKE UP and get ready.


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## kenny

Something's in the air I deal with a lot of very wealthy clients in my business most having 200 million to a billion in real estate assets and they are dumping there real estate holdings. Nobody's talking but these are not people who have knee jerk reactions. For years I have monitored there behavior because of who they are and now that I see them becomeing very liquid it concerns me. Typically this kind of movement is something you only see during estate settlements nobody dumps these kinds of assets unless they have good advice and a reason to do so. When I asked what there going to do next they just said sit and wait, no plans in particular. Ominous to say the least


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## Tweto

kenny said:


> Something's in the air I deal with a lot of very wealthy clients in my business most having 200 million to a billion in real estate assets and they are dumping there real estate holdings. Nobody's talking but these are not people who have knee jerk reactions. For years I have monitored there behavior because of who they are and now that I see them becomeing very liquid it concerns me. Typically this kind of movement is something you only see during estate settlements nobody dumps these kinds of assets unless they have good advice and a reason to do so. When I asked what there going to do next they just said sit and wait, no plans in particular. Ominous to say the least


Everybody is scared and they don't know what's going to happen. I'm staying as liquid as I can. Before 9/11 I got this same feeling that I have now. I do what my gut tells me to do and I think a lot of these rich friends of yours are doing the same.

I've been watching the markets for a long time and something completely out of the ordinary is happening now. Except for the last 2-3 years the markets have been very predictable. Now, anything goes, its almost like the average investers are on LSD.

The economy is doing at best OK. I know that the government and some media is saying that the US economy is getting better, but I can read a balance sheet and we are in bad shape and I don't see it getting better. In-fact, I can see the economy getting very bad over the next 5-10 years.

I don't think that Mitt can fix it. The only difference between Mitt and BO is if BO is reelected the economy will just swirl and flush faster.


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## lazydaisy67

I still just have a heck of a time wrapping my brain around how/why this is happening. I see it, I read it, and hear it but it almost doesn't compute. The sheer numbers of human beings who will be decimated by this inevitable outcome is just too staggering for me to consider. I'm just glad that I entered the game when I did. Hindsite is always 20/20 so I wish I had opened my eyes earlier, but happy that they're open now.


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## mojo4

I'm glad I don't have lots of assets to worry about! Being semi-broke sure does take a load off!!


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## WatchUr6

At least my food, guns and ammo will be worth more after the collapse.


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## pixieduster

Tweto said:


> Everybody is scared and they don't know what's going to happen. I'm staying as liquid as I can. Before 9/11 I got this same feeling that I have now. I do what my gut tells me to do and I think a lot of these rich friends of yours are doing the same.
> 
> I've been watching the markets for a long time and something completely out of the ordinary is happening now. Except for the last 2-3 years the markets have been very predictable. Now, anything goes, its almost like the average investers are on LSD.
> 
> The economy is doing at best OK. I know that the government and some media is saying that the US economy is getting better, but I can read a balance sheet and we are in bad shape and I don't see it getting better. In-fact, I can see the economy getting very bad over the next 5-10 years.
> 
> I don't think that Mitt can fix it. The only difference between Mitt and BO is if BO is reelected the economy will just swirl and flush faster.


Yes! That gut feeling. Only way to describe it. I'm not good with stats and spread sheets or politics, but I see and feel something very different. Its not a panic feeling. Its a better get ready and be prepared for a long time change feeling. Hard to verbalize it without sounding crazy. I am thankful the hubz is going along with my feeling/thoughts but don't think he REALLY understands why. He is supporting my "hobby" of prepping, if you will. What's funny is he told me not long ago, "I should listen to you more. You always seem to be right." Ha! I don't argue and will state my opinion once, then let it go. Hope he will see my work is for a good reason. But not wishing for that SHTF day. Some people shovel in facts, analyze, and collect data to come to a conclusion. My brain doesn't work that way.


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## partdeux

Tweto said:


> I've been watching the markets for a long time and something completely out of the ordinary is happening now. Except for the last 2-3 years the markets have been very predictable. Now, anything goes, its almost like the average investers are on LSD.


I did a paper on bubbles. Applied an over simplified long term analysis to the price of stocks and housing. Both fell to a decades long trend line. Housing is still bouncing along that line. Stocks however bubbled back up again. The question of the day, is the current stock price supported by any real gains, or is it supported by artifical means, aka deficit spending?

WRT dollar not being the reserve currency, there is no other alternative. IRC, the dollar and euro are responsible for something like 90% of all global trade. Without the dollar, what does one use to trade with?


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## JayJay

mojo4 said:


> I'm glad I don't have lots of assets to worry about! Being semi-broke sure does take a load off!!


What comes after semi???:gaah:
Whatever that is describes us.


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## ComputerGuy

JayJay said:


> What comes after semi???:gaah:
> Whatever that is describes us.


Hang in there.


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## Marcus

partdeux said:


> WRT dollar not being the reserve currency, there is no other alternative. IRC, the dollar and euro are responsible for something like 90% of all global trade. Without the dollar, what does one use to trade with?


Well, you can use gold like China et al. are doing right now with Iran.

What's going to happen to global trade when the bubbles burst? It'll tank and probably much more than in the Great Depression (33%) because so many countries are living on credit so their currencies will be worthless.

Once we come out the other side, there'll be some sort of commodity-based currency since the grown ups will have to step in and keep the politicians from playing games with the currency. What particular commodity it will be will probably be dependent on each country/region. I can foresee oil, natural gas, gold, or even rare earth metals as a basis of a viable currency.


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## sailaway

I haven't read much about the global economy lately, I do have "After Shock" and will start reading it shortly. I've just been thinking about that old tune "Loose Shoes" as long as I have all of that life is good.


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## partdeux

Marcus said:


> Once we come out the other side, there'll be some sort of commodity-based currency since the grown ups will have to step in and keep the politicians from playing games with the currency. What particular commodity it will be will probably be dependent on each country/region. I can foresee oil, natural gas, gold, or even rare earth metals as a basis of a viable currency.


I expect the "answer" is going to be a world wide currency proposed by JPM, GS, Citi, etc.


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## Magus

Whoa...check out Europe!looks like 100 yards until train wreck!


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## Marcus

partdeux said:


> I expect the "answer" is going to be a world wide currency proposed by JPM, GS, Citi, etc.


That'll depend on the severity of crash. Given their exposures to financial derivatives and the value of those derivatives, they may not survive either. And even if they do, who'll trust them again?


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## Fridge

Buy Liquor....of all sorts.... Booze will be worth a lot of money when SHTF. Doesn't go bad.. long shelf life, and I have plenty to barter with or just stay drunk for a couple years easily. 

on a serious note. I have been playing with the stock market now for 20 years..made much money and of course lost some several years back and lately loosing it like water through my fingers. I have diversified with Gold and Silver and a couple other metals but BOOZE will always worth something and you can drink it up too instead of letting the market dry it up for you. NOW go out and buy some booze and support your local store and economy....and iffin you don't drink....buy it for future investments.....nobody will condemn you for it and GOD will understand iffin you ask for forgiveness.


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## Tweto

Fridge said:


> Buy Liquor....of all sorts.... Booze will be worth a lot of money when SHTF. Doesn't go bad.. long shelf life, and I have plenty to barter with or just stay drunk for a couple years easily.
> 
> on a serious note. I have been playing with the stock market now for 20 years..made much money and of course lost some several years back and lately loosing it like water through my fingers. I have diversified with Gold and Silver and a couple other metals but BOOZE will always worth something and you can drink it up too instead of letting the market dry it up for you. NOW go out and buy some booze and support your local store and economy....and iffin you don't drink....buy it for future investments.....nobody will condemn you for it and GOD will understand iffin you ask for forgiveness.


I agree, have enough whiskey now for 2 years. I'm only buying Canadian whiskey, For $12.00, I can get a 1.75 liter bottle. I'm a big Jack Daniel fan but in SHTF situation the Canadian will get you just as drunk.


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## mojo4

Hey tweto your part of the problem!! Buy American you turkey!! And some wild turkey. Just kiddin. My wife is a vodka snob so we have lots of ketel one. Like there's a difference in vodka, dirty tater water!! Now tequila, come with me my friend and we will discuss the beauty of tequila!


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## Tweto

mojo4 said:


> Hey tweto your part of the problem!! Buy American you turkey!! And some wild turkey. Just kiddin. My wife is a vodka snob so we have lots of ketel one. Like there's a difference in vodka, dirty tater water!! Now tequila, come with me my friend and we will discuss the beauty of tequila!


Hey, if it wasn't for Canada we would not of had any whiskey during prohibition. I'm just trying to pay back them back.:beercheer:


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## urbanprepping

I agree with him. I to f an news junkie. I have been waiting for someone. To drop the dollar. Remember when the homes strait with Iran start. They told us to chill or they would trade oil in any currency other the greenback. Look how fast we shut. I have been suspecting Greece and France. 

I think the the implosion is closer than the end of the year. I think by the end of summer.we will start seeing it go south. 

As my company motto states. And now it appears to be a statement of time

Train to live, prepare to survive. It times to get our loose ends tied up. And get ready.


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## The_Blob

one thing I can tell you:

The crappier the economy gets, the more money the BARS make! 

I just don't understand the mentality involved, I'm not one to drink to excess, but if I was I would be doing it in the privacy of my own home for 1/3 the price or less, and NOT getting behind the wheel of my 3-ton-death-machine afterwards.  :gaah:


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