# Coming Winter Intensity?



## JeepHammer (Oct 10, 2008)

I know the 'End Of The World' types want some big catastrophes that causes cannibalisms, ect...

BUT!

I'm noticing conditions are about the same this year as the were back in '77 & '78 when we had blizzards that kicked butt!

Snow in south Texas and New Orleans, 3" of snow in Las Vegas, early arctic air blasts in the mid west...

I remember all these from the blizzards in '77 & '78, so I'm just wondering if the weather patterns are going to line up again to case problems?!!!

For those of you that don't remember the winters of '76/'77 and '77/'78, you might want to 'google' it!
They were REAL fun! Kept me out of school for about 6 weeks here!


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## endurance (Nov 26, 2008)

That's funny because 76-77 was one of the driest winters on record in Colorado and it was followed by some of the snowiest in 79-80, 82-83, 83-84. Colorado actually backed out of Winter Olympic contention after the 76-77 winter because they didn't think we'd have enough snow to support the ski events. I definitely remember 82 quite vividly. That year the storms just kept on coming. Obviously where the serious winters hit varies some around the country. This winter started very slowly here and is now getting and staying cold, but we really aren't getting all that much precip in the city (although the ski areas 60-100 miles west are doing alright). A friend of mine in Coeur d'Alene, ID said they just got blasted last Wednesday-Thursday with 28" in 24 hours. That's some serious snow for those parts (I don't think folks in Buffalo would even notice).


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

Global warming is BS.its nothing but a cycle and it appears to be over.


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## endurance (Nov 26, 2008)

Magus said:


> Global warming is BS.its nothing but a cycle and it appears to be over.


We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. If you look at the temperatures 10,000 years ago, with glaciers extending from Hudson Bay to Indianapolis, I'd say it's a wee-bit warmer than it was back then. Also, if you look at the retreat of glaciers in the southern 48, Europe, and the Himalayas, it's definitely continuing to warm.

Now if you want to debate cause, that's another matter with little scientific evidence either way.


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## TechAdmin (Oct 1, 2008)

Magus said:


> Global warming is BS.its nothing but a cycle and it appears to be over.


I watched a quick show about pan evaporation and global dimming. Pretty interesting stuff;

Pan evaporation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


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## AgentFlounder (Dec 12, 2008)

I dare not weigh in on on global warming too much -- except to say I always try to adhere to a scientific approach about things, meaning I try not to get too entrenched in any idea, theory, or way of thinking. I hope I can stay that way for many more years as I have seen in myself and others what happens when one gets calcified in their thinking and theories. I hold to my core beliefs and values, but am thankful when my ideas and theories are challenged. I try to learn enough and be humble enough to realize that scientists know a lot more about their chosen topics than I do.

But anyway... seems like the big blizzards here follow El Nino years (from my miniscule 15 years of sampling). I don't believe this past year was one (anyone know?). We've had some nice cold and light snow which was enjoyable. I'm not holding my breath on a big snow this year but that is pure conjecture. Altho the Jeep is (mostly) ready to give out rides.


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## JeepHammer (Oct 10, 2008)

Magus said:


> Global warming is BS.its nothing but a cycle and it appears to be over.


Not true, according to every reputable scientist and university on the planet...
But you are allowed to believe anything you want to.

19 of the last 20 years have been the hottest on record, with winter coming later, and ending sooner.

Cold snaps and ice storms are inevitable, and have nothing to do with the global warming and melting of the ice sheets...
BUT,
The odd weather patterns, like serious amounts of snow in Texas, New Orleans, Las Vegas, are all predicted and fit into the weather models of global warming.
---------------------------------

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AgentFlounder said:


> But anyway... seems like the big blizzards here follow El Nino years (from my miniscule 15 years of sampling). I don't believe this past year was one (anyone know?). We've had some nice cold and light snow which was enjoyable. I'm not holding my breath on a big snow this year but that is pure conjecture. Altho the Jeep is (mostly) ready to give out rides.


Last year was El Niño instead of La Niña, so snows and ice storms were a given, so were the heavy rains out in the west.

Your observations are pretty much correct with predictions from the weather service and what actually happens...
AND,
It's only been about 15 years since we have had comprehensive wave action, ocean temp, and satellites that could track the El Niño/La Niña connections, so you are pretty well adjusted for the information we have right now...


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## GPER (Oct 28, 2008)

I do remember the blizzard, the day before I broke a rear axle on my 67 CJ-5. I got it towed to the shop got home and the next morning was the blizzard.

I sat at home for a week while mom and dad were in Florida Finally got the Jeep fixed and started plowing what snow was left.


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

Magus said:


> Global warming is BS.its nothing but a cycle and it appears to be over.


The way that "Global Warming" is being preached from the hallowed halls of the scientific community - I don't believe. The way that "Global Cooling" (aka IceAge) is being preached from the other side of the hallowed halls of the scientific community - I also don't believe. I can be proved wrong.

I believe that we are in a normal cycle and that instead of trying to change the planet (we cannot), we have to change ourselves. 


> Spoon boy: Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth.
> Neo: What truth?
> Spoon boy: There is no spoon.
> Neo: There is no spoon?
> Spoon boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.


We need to change ourselves to match what Gaia wants - not the other way around.


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## JeepHammer (Oct 10, 2008)

I went out and tuned up the FSJ (Full Size Jeep for you guys that don't own Jeeps) 
And made sure everything I was going to need was there...

Tools, chemicals, heater, chainsaws, bar oil, extra sharp chains, ect.
Stuff like an inverter and battery charger, made sure the jumper cables were up to snuff and ready to go...

I though about putting the chains on now instead of waiting for bad weather, then this little 1/8" of ice came along...
Not enough for chains, but real slick on regular rubber!

Stocked up on those chemical heat packs! Found a place in town that was selling them for $1 a pack of 3, that's about a buck cheaper than 'China-Mart' so I bought a couple of full boxes since they don't go bad...

They say this is supposed to be a serious winter, 
(But they are ALWAYS saying something that dosn't happen!)

I don't know, can't tell you! I don't know anyone that can read the future,
And the weather geeks are morons,
So I'm just going to stock up on Jack Daniels and JeepPorn and see what happens!

The wood pile is stocked, 
My generator is tuned up and waiting,
I canned EVERYTHING I could get into a canning jar this year,
The vehicles are 'Winterized' and ready,
And I have the outside faucets shut off and drained,
The storm windows are in,
I put about 8" of new insulation in the attic this summer,
So we should be fine no matter what comes!

Sunday, we had a high of 12 Degrees F. with overnight lows of 0 Degrees and wind chills of -30F....
This is Wednesday, and it's 50F. and raining!
(Don't like the weather in Indiana? Wait 10 minutes, it'll change!)

ANYWAY, MERRY HO-HO TO ALL OF YOU OUT THERE IN CYBER LAND!


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

JeepHammer said:


> Not true, according to every reputable scientist and university on the planet...
> But you are allowed to believe anything you want to.
> 
> 19 of the last 20 years have been the hottest on record, with winter coming later, and ending sooner.
> ...


Actually,most of the scientists who disagree with the scam are immediately ostricised.look up the weather records over the last 100 years and you'll see several peaks and valleys such as the one we're in now.that's not to say these cyclical changes don't play hell with the weather,they do!but as far as a human caused,permeanant change comming,its all crap.

Mars is warming too,if the rovers had seen an SUV on mars,it'd make the news.LOL


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## JeepHammer (Oct 10, 2008)

Magus said:


> Actually,most of the scientists who disagree with the scam are immediately ostricised.look up the weather records over the last 100 years and you'll see several peaks and valleys such as the one we're in now.that's not to say these cyclical changes don't play hell with the weather,they do!but as far as a human caused,permeanant change comming,its all crap.
> 
> Mars is warming too,if the rovers had seen an SUV on mars,it'd make the news.LOL


Mars could use some green house gasses!
Anything to thicken the atmosphere would help!


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## Magus (Dec 1, 2008)

I'm thinkin' a couple of tons of blue algae and we could sell resort properties there in a few generations,LOL


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## JeepHammer (Oct 10, 2008)

I think we would have to have MUCH more atmosphere there than there is right now before we consider any kind of life...

Water boils (or in this case, sublimates) at about 20F because there is so little atmospheric pressure there,
And there isn't enough 'Green House' gasses to trap solar radiation to warm the surface.

With no strong magnetic field like earth has, any atmospheric gasses will be blown away by the solar winds, so trying to 'Terra Form' the planet is useless right now...

We will need to have standing (liquid) water and enough atmosphere to keep the water from boiling away off the surface before we can discuss any algae growth.


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## jebrown (Nov 7, 2008)

John Coleman who founded the weather channel says that global warming is not happening. He says that we are in a warming trend as part of a 400 year cycle.
Al Gore will preach to you about global warming and then take your money as he scams you by selling you cabon credits. A journalist checked the records for his residense and found that Gore was using far more energy at his reidence that he should have. After going public with this information the journalist started receiving death threats. 
We all know that the last ice age was ended by a global warming caused by the gas from dinosaur farts.


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## AgentFlounder (Dec 12, 2008)

We need to be looking at scientific research not celebrity endorsements. One guy's opinion is worthless. Since this is a scientific question, the wisest course of action is to consider what science has to say.

Neither Al Gore's lifestyle, residence, alleged death threats (can you prove this?), nor alleged greed have any bearing on whether global warming or climate change or global dimming are occurring. These things just speak to Al Gore's character as a person.

John Coleman is a weatherman? Or what? Has he done extensive research into the historical climate record? What are his credentials in speaking to the cycles of weather over the past hundred thousand years or more? What is his empirical evidence? And how many other scientists have duplicated his findings vs. refuted them?

Have you looked at the scientific research plotting temperature cycles over the last hundred thousand years?


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## The_Blob (Dec 24, 2008)

people are concentrating too much on CO2 (carbon DIoxide) & not enough on worse greenhouse culprits such as CH4 (methane) which is 27x worse than CO2 & WATER vapor (yes, water vapor) which is 3x-4x... yet banning the use of water pretty much is NOT an issue.

primordial methane is being released at ever increasing amounts in the Northern Hemisphere as ice melts @ prodigious enough rates to be harvested economically & in quantities to be utilized by the entire planet as an energy source... yes, I understand the byproducts are H2O AND CO2... but still LESS destructive than methane.

also, did anybody know that the Southern Hemisphere has increase in ice GREATER than the reductions in the Northern Hemisphere? interesting how that seems to get under-reported... and sad

in a perfect world scientists would be rewarded for doing science, as opposed to being hamstringed (hamstrung?) by making their science fit whatever agenda their check-writers have...  ...on BOTH sides of the fence.

I believe there is Climate Change.

I believe there is a warming trend.

I believe mankind has had a contributing role.

I do NOT believe that mankind is the major mitigating factor though.

a simple fact is that an increasing number of scientists are starting to disagree with the current mainstream on GW (it was 10% a couple years ago & it is now 13%-14%... that amount of disparity would be considered a major 'fail' with any other theory/premise, but there is just too damn much MONEY/control involved)

but consider this; wouldn't it be more prudent to live as if we were the cause of Climate Change & have it not be true, than to live as if nothing were wrong & contribute to ecological disaster? that being said, I am surely NOT a fan of the eco-cult/religion that it has become & NOT a supporter of fascist/social terrorist tactics that attempt 'enforce' particular en vogue viewpoints


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## jebrown (Nov 7, 2008)

Flounder
Global warming is just like the Y2K scare. The ones are leading the bandwagon are the one’s making money off of the scare.
If you had read my post before getting you hackles up John Coleman founded the Weather Channel and is a world renowned Meteorologist He is a certified meteorology scientist not a celebrity. It is said that you don’t know of him as he was on-air for a long time on the Weather Channel. Yes he has done extensive research into weather history. Those who oppose him are the one’s who will suffer profit loss in agreeing with him. How many people do you know of who have done research other than to rove their point other than to separate people from their money? How many of them have done empirical evidence? Where do these people get the information on weather for the last 100,000 years? Pull up ice samples from an iceberg?
The threats to the journalist were not alleged. He had Police officers on the show backing up his statements of death threats along with Police records. I do not have to prove I am right. It is a matter of public record. Can you prove me wrong. Claiming to or actually doing research but not finding what you want does not prove me wrong or you right.
I was not speaking of Al Gore’s character but to his lack of it. Do you know where the money goes and exactly how much of it if any goes to where it is supposed to for the Carbon Credits? This program was on the National Geographic Channel. The also exposed other people who were charging people money for Carbon Credits but refuse to reveal where the money was going. 
There are others who have claimed that global warming is a myth. I mistakenly thought that you would know who John Coleman is.
I guess that you are buying into this nonsense which is why you are so defensive.
You are not the only one who is a fan of analysis. I too believe in analysis but I also look at who is providing it and what there agenda is. Is it to disseminate information or gain their 15 minutes of fame. Make money on what they say or both.


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## TrailWalker (Dec 28, 2008)

JeepHammer said:


> For those of you that don't remember the winters of '76/'77 and '77/'78, you might want to 'google' it!


Oh yeah I remember well I was on leave from the Marines got a extra six days of leave because of the blizzard. When the local TV station said that we were in for a blizzard I just snickered and said yeah right. Well I remember Interstate 70 completely shut down and local construction companies were using end loaders to clear local highways. Couldn't go more then 1/4 mile in either direction on the road in front of my house on my tractor. Hadn't seen that much snow since the early sixties.


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## solaceofwinter (Oct 29, 2008)

i know its warmer but global warming i dunno.
it used to snow here by the foot now its all just ice/rain.
kinda sucks for sleighing


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## AgentFlounder (Dec 12, 2008)

Sorry, I didn't mean to sound defensive. I'm actually happily willing to examine global warming further and refine or totally change my conclusions. I guess I was a little too exuberant in pointing out logical fallacies. And it sounded like you thought John Coleman's comments outweighed all of the scientific community -- maybe I misinterpreted your comments. My view on science is that you look at numerous findings and reports -- what is the community concluding (or arguing about) at large.

I did take a quick look at what John Coleman had to say. Now I understand more about who he is (thanks for that) and his viewpoint. I am hoping to find some scientific evidence from him to explain why he believes global warming is a scam. If you could provide any links to his science, I'd much appreciate it (I'll keep searching in the meanwhile).

I agree it's wise to look at the motivations behind the hype. You're right about that. There are always scammers out there (plenty of cases where charities make rich people richer instead of helping those in need). Your comments and John Coleman's (and a couple websites I've found today) have to do with a money motivated reason behind all the global warming news.

Way I see it, money could be behind the hype whether global warming is false or true. If it's false, then what's required is persuading media, scientists, etc. and building up momentum behind the notion of global warming. If it's true, it's just a matter of hyping / overblowing what was already found. Either way if money is behind all this, it doesn't really definitively say whether global warming is true or false. It just says there are some greedy people out there.

One could equally argue that a lot of money is behind discrediting global warming -- plenty of profits are at stake if measures are taken to stop global warming (whether it is a hoax or truth).

I would be interested to look into the history of scientific reports on the topic. Was the science around long before the big politicians jumped on the bandwagon? Did the science just pop up all of a sudden, or did a few scientists find some things that were corroborated by other scientists in increasing numbers over the years? That might help figure out what is going on.

To my way of thinking, debating the politics and money and motivations isn't as helpful as looking at scientific evidence/research on both sides. I guess that is because I still believe that, overall, science works as intended. Even if some folks get bought off, surely there are other scientists who are true to their profession who refute false findings.

The people doing the paleoclimatology research are actual scientists trying to figure out whether there are long term trends. They do indeed determine very long term temperature patterns by looking at ice samples. I was wrong -- they aren't looking as far back as 100,000 years -- they've been able to gather ice samples to 740,000 years ago -- 8 ice ages -- back in 2004. Record-Breaking Ice Core May Hold Key to Climate Variation: Scientific American - here's a 650,000 year sample: Ice Core Extends Climate Record Back 650,000 Years: Scientific American - and more here - Paleoclimatology: The Ice Core Record : Feature Articles Of course there are plenty of scientists using other methods (Earth's Climate Changes in Tune with Eccentric Orbital Rhythms: Scientific American)

Incidentally when I say global warming, what I really mean to say is climate change since the scientific community has been making noise about global dimming and such. (This type of shift in conclusions is typical of science the way it is supposed to work)

Believe it or don't, but I'm actually not buying into anything ... I'm trying to be open minded about this topic.

Would you say that you are buying into the viewpoint that global warming is a myth?

It's interesting having done more reading on this. Looking at the NASA graph suggests that temp levels the past 10000 years (out of a much, much longer period) haven't really varied in any appreciable way. Reading the SciAm article that talks about methane... it dismisses this as possibly due to rotting flora around the world versus human agriculture. Interesting.

It is good to see that science isn't blindly and universally espousing doom and gloom scenarios, spouting off the party line, and hopping mindlessly on the bandwagons.


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## jebrown (Nov 7, 2008)

Flounder
Sometimes when one is trying to illustrate a point one sometimes sounds defensive without realizing it. Trust me my friend I know that to be true from from personal experience.
Is global warming really happening truthfully I don’t really know for sure. Climate change is happening for sure.
I was Red Cross disaster volunteer for 22 years and I have seen so many people with their own agenda about what is happening. But if you buy there snake oil the worlds will be peaceful and sunny. I believe you can relate to this during the Y2K nonsense. I spent New Years Eve in our city’s Emergency Center waiting and glad nothing happened
I wish I had some links on John Coleman but I don’t. I heard his opinion on TV.
I am sure that there are competent scientists out there with good solid reliable evidence either way. Some how they are always overshadowed in the media with the one’s who spout their money making agenda. Yes there would be a substantial amount of money to be made trying to discredit global warming. Unfortunately crooked politicians and money grubbing scientists whose only agenda is profit clog up the machinery. 
There were a lot of cancer researchers who had cures or means to lessen the effects of cancer but were condemned by medical professionals and other researchers who stood to loose money if the cures were given to the people. In the early 1980’s Bob Gucionne, the publisher of Penthouse Magazine printed articles exposing the cover up for cures.
There are a lot of competent qualified scientists doing serious research and are not running around hollering “The sky is falling the sky is falling buy my snake oil if you ant to survive”.
I don’t know if there really is or isn’t global warming. We will have to wait and see what the competent scientists will find out. Let’s remember competent scientists tell us what is really going on. The money grubbers tell us what they want so we will buy there phony cures.
I have been aware of evidence on rotting plant life emitting methane gas. When I was living in Ca. There was a hotel in City of Industry that was built on an abandoned land fill and tapped into the methane from decaying garbage to provide gas to operate the hotel.
I can also remember a conservation group back in the ‘70’s that was pushing to have diapers on all farm animals to contain the methane they emitted which was contaminating the atmosphere. I kid you not.
I like you flounder have an open mind. These next few years will be extremely interesting as more and more legitimate evidence is found. 
Thank you for the links flounder. A lot of good information by qualified scientists who are researching for scientific information


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## AgentFlounder (Dec 12, 2008)

Hey jebrown thanks for the reply, I appreciate it. You're a good egg. It's good to be able to really discuss this stuff openly and figure out others' points of view. That's become too rare these days. Sad that money (greed) is such a powerful motivator in this world, but thats how it goes I guess. There are some famous chicken littles whose motives are sketchy to be sure. I agree -- let's see if we can figure out what the competent, conscientious scientists have to say.


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## jebrown (Nov 7, 2008)

Flounder: You are a Grade “A” egg yourself. I do enjoy discussions with people with different opinions. That is how we learn and improve our knowledge. I very much enjoyed your opinions and want to say thank you again for the links. It was also nice to express our ideas without name calling and questioning of IQ’s. It is too bad that others on this and other forums as well as people in the world will not do the same. Also, as far as I am concerned I have gained a good friend. 
They only down side is that I think we are going to have to wait a very long timer for the truth to emerge. Even longer for the profiteers working as scientists to be eliminated from research of any type.
Flounder, may 2009 be divine for you and your family. I wish you the utmost in health, happiness and all around prosperity.


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## NaeKid (Oct 17, 2008)

The Environment Canada puts out a "Top 10" list of weather stories .. I don't know if our neighbors to the south will be able to click on this link - but - it was a "horrible" weather year in Canada ..

Without much further ado - here is the link:

Canada's Top Ten Weather Stories for 2008

The cycles of Gaia are repeating. Weather patterns that seemed to be highly disrupted since the explosion of Mt. St.Helen's are starting to get back to normal again. Here in Calgary we are starting to get snow again (I think we have reached a 20 year record of snow on the ground for the longest period of time without a Chinook melting it away) ... this winter is showing itself as the way that the Farmer's Almanac predicted based on all kinds of studies that they did.

If this years Farmer's Almanac is true, and, if their long term predictions come true - we are in for some great snowy winters. I think I might even buy a snowmobile - we haven't had enough snow around here for over a dozen years to justify that kind of toy.


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## TrailWalker (Dec 28, 2008)

*Sunspots*

Our local weatherman stated that there is a correlation between sunspots and the weather. The month of August there were no sunspots and he predicted a slightly colder than normal winter with increased precipitation. So far it seems he is pretty much on the money.

If you are interested Google sunspots+weather


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## endurance (Nov 26, 2008)

NaeKid said:


> The cycles of Gaia are repeating. Weather patterns that seemed to be highly disrupted since the explosion of Mt. St.Helen's are starting to get back to normal again. Here in Calgary we are starting to get snow again (I think we have reached a 20 year record of snow on the ground for the longest period of time without a Chinook melting it away) ... this winter is showing itself as the way that the Farmer's Almanac predicted based on all kinds of studies that they did.


While Mt. St. Helen's was more memorable for most of us in North America, its effects on the weather were pretty short term compared to Mt. Pinatubo. The probability of a continued period of relatively low volcanic activity for the long-term is low. Volcanoes are a constant variable over the long run and while the last few winters have reminded me more of the winters of my youth, we could be one major eruption away from a year without a summer (like 1816) or global warming on an epic scale (with the eruption of a volcano holding a large quantity of CO2). What gas content a volcano has can have a tremendous impact on our climate; far beyond the impact of man alone. The risk is if we contribute and take things too far to one edge, then mother nature gives it a hard nudge.

Sunspots usually run in 11 year cycles with particularly strong cycles every 22 years. I recall that there was a very strong coorelation with wildland fires in the central Rocky Mountains for a number of years as snowpack waxed and waned, but I'm sure other factors, like volcanoes, wildland management policies, and summer thunderstorms also played major roles. The problem with short-term climate models is the number of influences and feedback loops that can be perpetuated by just a small change. While meteorologists frequently refer to El Nino and La Nina, they're not even sure what causes the change from one to the other and back again. All they've really done is made the observation that sometimes the water off the west coast of the US is warmer or cooler and that impacts weather patterns. The why is a much more complex question that has dozens of theories with little evidence.


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